Transcription
Enhancing nuclear capability, for it to become a military weapon, it can be checked by percentage. But if it's in the 80-90% range, this is a clear signal, "Hey, it means it has reached military nuclear capability." That's why this battlefield conflict issue arose, that if left unchecked, it will surely escalate. Dealing with Iran now, it has become a difficult thing. The main heart of the matter has shifted to geopolitical issues, geopolitics, and alliance factors, whether it be China, whether it be Russia, whether it be North Korea. All three of these countries have nuclear weapons.
Hello, Sema. >> Hello, Khun Thanee. Semaew here. Good to be with you. I've been discussing Iran with you for a very long time now, and we're happy, huh, that it will finally end. But in Semaew's opinion, Semaew thinks, is it really over? Is it really possible? Will Trump agree? Will Mojtaba not obstruct it? How likely is it that the deal will conclude?
>> Oh, this deal ending, it's already clear that it's not sustainable because it says 60 days, and if it's to be extended beyond 60 days, it can be. That's already the answer. It's not a permanent closure. And the main issues that should be closed, huh, haven't been resolved either. It just says, "These 60 days, uh, a ceasefire," and other matters will be discussed later. After that, there will be further development. This development is important because it will talk about nuclear issues, about enhancing nuclear capabilities. It will also be about, what is it, various expenses, money, and whatever the US seized from Iran, huh. All these things, well, we see that the main issues will definitely drag on. But the best thing is clear in one way: alright, at least there's a 60-day halt, and it leads to the possibility of opening the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the world to breathe a little regarding the oil situation. We will clearly see, once this news circulates, that they might come together. This period of 60 days and the opening of Hormuz, it sends a signal that global oil prices will decrease. But here, we have to keep watching, keep hoping. In just a few days, one or two days, it will be clear. But certainly, it's a closure within the 60-day framework, but for it to be permanent, well, it's probably still difficult. But at least, alright, we can breathe for 60 days, and we'll see the atmosphere leading up to those 60 days. There will probably be news developments to show, but regarding the nuclear issue, it hasn't been resolved yet, so we'll have to keep hoping, yes.
I'd like to briefly provide some background, that over the past three months or so, uh, there was a most important turning point, which was the death of, uh, uh, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, huh, who was Mojtaba's father, huh. This, I think, is a very crucial heart in many changes in world geography. So I asked Semaew further, that Mojtaba, as the current supreme leader, he probably, uh, has his own ideas, which I think are stronger than his father's, huh. That is, he is younger and has a stronger determination to make, uh, nuclear bombs more possible than his father, huh. So I don't understand either, uh, regarding the nuclear issue, because in Semaew's opinion, regarding the nuclear issue, does Iran have it now, or is it in possession, or is it about to produce it, or will it not produce it anymore, or which way will it go? Please analyze this specifically a little bit.
>> At this moment, it is still believed to be under development, because we must admit that the inspection here, whether the development of nuclear capability can become a military weapon, it can be checked by the percentage of uranium development. And here, the Western bloc, even the US and Israel, are closely monitoring it, saying, "Hey, this thing hasn't reached the percentage to be a military weapon, but it's precarious, it's around 60%." But if it's in the 80-90% range, this is a clear signal, "Hey, it means it has reached military nuclear capability." Alright, we can infer that it's close, that's why this battlefield conflict issue arose, saying, "Hey, if left unchecked, it will surely escalate." But at the same time, we also have to look at how dealing with Iran now has become a difficult thing, because it's a system of alliances, you see. That's why I said, currently, whether this social confrontation, this battlefield, will end or not, the main heart of the matter has shifted to geopolitical issues, geopolitics, and alliance factors. And now, Iran's alliance factors are clearly visible, and whether it be China, whether it be Russia, whether it be North Korea, huh, it's clear that all three of these countries have nuclear weapons. So Iran doesn't even need to have them yet, but having allies who do makes it strong, and it's already a deterrent, because it's clear in their handshake, clear in how they shake hands. If we really go back in history, the desire to be a world power, it's always been between two poles: the US, China, Russia. The US on one side, China and Russia on the other. And the US says it must be number one, must be number one, "American First." But recently, China and Russia discussed, "Hey, 'First' isn't possible anymore." How so? It must be what they call an integrated system, meaning it's a resolution, not like, "Hey, it's two," no, it's a resolution, meaning, "This world, you cannot be number one. It must have multiple poles. It must be multipolar, not bipolar," no, "bi" is just two. Russia and China say, "It's multi, hey, you can't be the biggest now." So when it's multi, we've seen that these alliances, whatever they are, are tight. China, Russia, North Korea, they are definitely tight. And now, China is even more relieved about the case of North Korea, which, in the past, China was also like that because there was something that indicated that Korea might unite, North Korea and South Korea. But currently, it's clear, huh, because North Korea went and amended its constitution, saying it won't associate with South Korea anymore. So China is smiling because, no matter what, North Korea is isolating itself. The threat that would come from South Korea is considered closed, a buffer. So here, even if Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons yet, but has them nearby, but when we look at its allies, it's as if it already has nuclear weapons, Khun Thanee, yes.
Hmm, so let's look at it concisely for a moment. That is, the four Axis countries, called "KRING," are Russia, uh, uh, Iran, and North Korea, huh. Combined, in simple language, they are called "KRING." This KRING group, uh, is a group that is called "against the US," ah, another name for it.
Exactly opposite, yes, clearly the opposite, uh.
That's why I said, "Hey, there's no way you can be first. It has to be multi," because theirs, which is multi, once they lure in four countries, that's it.
The representative currently fighting with the US is Iran. So Iran receives support from three nations. The three nations fully support it, but don't show their faces.
Most recently at the UN, the UN also has its clarity, right, that China said to let the UN be the mediator in negotiations between...
Uh, the United States of America and Iran. And these negotiations might take place in Geneva. The signing negotiations that Semaew just mentioned are in the nature of a temporary ceasefire, but a temporary ceasefire for 10 days, but it can be extended, read that, that's it.
Ah, but the important thing is not that. Instead, the important thing is what we just talked about: nuclear, number one. Number two, what Iran wants is...
End sanctions and return money. These two might be exchanged.
Right there in Geneva, huh, saying, "Okay, no more nuclear, then return it to each other, uh."
And the one who decides is Donald Trump, right? Donald Trump sent Van to sign the contract. I want to ask Semaew, in a case like this, has Donald Trump reached his final point yet? That is, if he doesn't sign the contract, uh, the US economy might collapse. Do we view it this way, that Donald is backed into a corner, has no choice, and must close the deal by the 15th? Is that it?
Ah, this still carries weight. And at the same time, the indications from Iran's Foreign Minister also convey a positive tone, saying that their progress is considered the utmost progress, and there's a possibility it could happen. If we listen, we don't listen to Trump, we must listen to Iran, huh. Iran, meaning the Foreign Minister, speaking, "Uh, this shows it carries weight." And at the same time, as Thanee said, the internal factors that are pressuring the US government, and the fact that inflation has risen to over 3% and so on, oh wow, things are expensive, people are suffering, and the internal politics with the mid-year elections, these are forcing the method. And at the same time, at this point where things are settled, Trump is still settling for a good-looking solution, because it means there's a ceasefire, Hormuz is open, and as for those issues, okay, they'll talk for 60 days and then can extend it. So this bridge to a resolution is considered a way for him not to lose face, and it means he can solve domestic political problems first, and then they'll talk about it again, yes, I agree.
But the minor issues that are still pending, many issues, might be, as mentioned, there are 14 points, right?
Major issues might be concluded in 4-5 points.
Uh, minor issues are still pending, for example, Israel. Israel says, "Hey, no, I don't want to stop yet, I want to continue fighting. I don't acknowledge these negotiations. I will fight and will continue to attack Lebanon." This, this, Semaew, do you think Israel will agree? Will they agree to a ceasefire too, or will they separate? Oh.
This.
We'll see, hmm.
Iran still considers it a condition, huh, that Lebanon and Israel must also stop, huh. But Israel tries to say, "Hey, I'm not involved. I'm involved in the Iran battlefield, that's one thing, but the battlefield I'm managing with Hezbollah is not related." This, this is a difficulty. However, what Israel needs to listen to, wants to hear from the US, is that if there's a stop, the US must be firm in guaranteeing security for Israel. If it's not firm on this, huh, it will be difficult for Israel to agree. But the problem arises that in this situation, this scenario we've stepped back from, and the context of this situation, well, it's alarming, alarming because why? Because none of these three countries trust each other at all: Iran, the US, Israel. Even though, actually, the US and Israel should have an atmosphere of trust, but from the past events and scenarios, they say these three countries all have problems with trusting each other. So the whole world is on edge, "Hey, will it work out this time?" And everyone is worried about Israel. Israel, for example, says, "Oh, security guarantee, for sure." It's all worrying because this region, whether it's the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf group, these 5-6 countries, everyone wants confidence from the US. If there's no confidence among them, then everyone, oh, every country stands in a difficult position. But now, Trump seems to be making an announcement, huh, confirming that he will guarantee security in this region. So, is it worrying here? It's still worrying, huh, because we clearly see that Netanyahu, huh, of Israel, has never listened or agreed to anything with Trump. He will only agree when he himself sees that this thing is okay, hey, it can go through, then he'll take it. But if he doesn't agree, there's a lot of difficulty. But from this context, they also see that the US is constrained by its allies. On that side, "Hey, if it's just one-on-one with Iran, it might be manageable, but now it's starting to show clear signs that, hey, Iran isn't alone. It has China, it has Russia, it has North Korea, huh." And the problem is that Trump uses a theory like a "Madman," huh, in his leadership, making it difficult for everyone to read his moves, turning things upside down. One moment he's for it, the next he's not, then he cancels. After speaking, "Ah, okay, let's make the atmosphere good again." Then, two days ago, he had to heavily bombard. Suddenly, after 5-6 hours, "Are we doing it? Hey, the atmosphere is good, things are settled again," huh. This is a difficult game. But on the other hand, in the wing of allies, in the wing of Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, the leader of North Korea is actually in the same "round," huh, the same "round" as Trump, huh. So, hey, Israel might think, "Hey, those 3, 2, 3 countries, ah, with China, Russia, Iran, maybe it's still manageable, hey." But if they encounter the unpredictable madness of North Korea, it's not easy, huh, because North Korea has always communicated, "Hey, I am a nuclear teacher for Iran, huh." And it also tells Iran, "Hey, your country must have it, because if you don't, it will be like me, no one will invade, no one will threaten, even though it's a small country." So here, but if the factors that I mentioned, focusing on geopolitical factors and alliance factors, these will clearly tell the situation of these two pairs, whether they will agree or not agree. But in this situation, huh, if it's short-term like this, finding this ceasefire to ease Hormuz, I still believe that Israel will still compromise, because it's not a permanent stop. If they are not satisfied, they might create issues, create situations again. So here, but at this moment, I think the world is watching, "Hey, let's step back and observe first, and see the real reactions, whether Iran will actually comply, whether the US will actually comply." If it's real, then we'll talk about it later.
Let's look at the impact on the world this time, that if, hypothetically, oil can exit the Strait of Hormuz, uh, temporarily for 60 days, and uh, the flow, uh, recovery in prices, which I've seen the price now, around 83 or 85, reduced from 90.
Yes, below 90 is considered a great relief. Below 90 is considered okay in this situation.
But to be good, to have less impact on the economy, it needs to go down further to 70.
Ah, which...
Which is possible to go down to 70, because there will be a flood of oil coming out during this period when it's been held back, huh. All the ships floating around, it will come out and flood the market, and the market will have to drop sharply.
And overall, it will cause oil prices to drop to 60-70. If it drops to 60-70, it will cause inflation in the US to fall.
Yes.
This, then, will have a good effect on the US economy. Interest rates will fall. As soon as interest rates fall, uh, everything will improve, huh. There will be investment. Recently, the American stock market fell for several days, falling by as much as 10%, huh. Before SpaceX's IPO, the stock market fell a lot. It was a warning. Some people say it's a healing, a treatment to reduce the market's frenzy, like the bubble hasn't burst yet, let a little out. And this time, they got hit hard by SpaceX's IPO. Now I want Semaew to analyze in terms of the overall global picture. If we look at it, will our world enter something called "getting better and better"? Meaning, "Hey, no more fighting, we'll be peaceful." Uh, Trump might have learned his lesson and said, "No more, let's develop our country instead," or will there be a change in working methods, new policies, huh, after the war? Difficult.
Why? Because Israel has never trusted Iran, as I said. If there's any indication that nuclear development is progressing to a higher percentage, becoming military-grade, they will never agree, because Israel's military doctrine is: 1. Prohibit adversaries, prohibit their opponents from having nuclear weapons. Therefore, they must constantly keep a close watch. This is an important point. And 2. Well, the recovery in this battlefield, for Iran to return to a normal state, oh, it's not easy. Oil now, to return to a normal state, is not easy. And at the same time, the precariousness of events still happening, it still indicates that, hey, we still need to be careful, still need to be careful. So, the smoothness of the world, it probably won't be there yet. But if you ask if it's better, opening Hormuz will definitely make it better. But will it be the same as before? No, it won't be the same, because recovery still takes time. But in the long future ahead, huh, I believe this process, the entire region that has to face these events, everyone has to think hard. China has to think, the US has to think. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran thinks it must use as a bargaining chip in geopolitics, might not be easy anymore, because the need to transport pipelines to exit through the Red Sea, the ability to exit through the Arabian Sea, and so on, so that it can reach Oman, there must be what they call logistics coming this way. And the importance of Hormuz, which Iran currently holds, its role will diminish. Believe me, the long-term strategy in this region, among these groups of countries, they will surely join hands with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, look at Oman and so on. They will surely seek cooperation. Saudi Arabia has an advantage because it has pipelines that can exit both through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. But other nations will have to connect, and once connected, now the atmosphere is clear. The UAE and Oman, to exit through the Gulf of Oman, because they are at the mouth of the gulf, they don't have to get deeply involved with Persia. But in the future, I believe these are already rich countries. Investments that need to be made in pipelines or other routes to avoid using services in the Strait of Hormuz will be possible. But in this situation, we still affirm that the recovery, oh, that Iran was bombarded, huh, in those oil production wells, huh, still needs time. But the tension is still good because Hormuz is open. But to say it will be smooth, no, because Israel will never trust it. And actually, those 6 countries in the Persian Gulf, those Arabs, they are also worried about Iran, huh, they don't trust it. So, the need for security guarantees from the US, I still believe it must remain. Those 10+ points they discussed, there's a point where Iran says, "Hey, US, then take your forces back." This will probably be difficult [clears throat] because they will have to use the language that "what I have placed here is to guarantee peace." The US must use new language, saying it must have some forces, because these countries, huh, the Gulf group, they told me that they must have it as a guarantee, to pay as a guarantee, to guarantee peace, that's it.
Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to Sua Thao channel so you don't miss interesting clips and watch new clips before anyone else.