Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this breaking news video this Friday, October 24, 2025, in front of a green crypto ape that is pleasing. Well, well, Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum +3%, that's since the opening of the new candle here. The Asian market, they are rather buyers, which is good news. On the other hand, we are being very careful because today extremely important macroeconomic figures will be released, namely the US inflation figures, which will be released at 2:30 PM. And this beautiful green glass can turn into an even more beautiful glass or a not-so-pretty red one at all. You see, you have to be careful. The American market yesterday, Wall Street, also closed in the green this morning. The futures, which are just up there, are also rather green. So for now, it's very nice. Everything is good news. But be careful, be careful for several reasons. First, if we take a quick look at the liquidity map, we see that there is still a large pocket to reach up to $102,000, or the largest sell orders for Bitcoin purchases are waiting at $102,000. There is also a small pocket up to $115,000 or even $116,000, which could inch towards here, with the largest sell orders for Bitcoin being around $117,700. So we are being careful. Bitcoin, which had already started to inch up. We have people here who have placed longs and defended their positions, but I think the market wants to go and eat that. That, if you want a big beef steak, a nice ribeye, well-done rare, then a big carrot, not rare but well-cooked for the vegetarians, and so the market will really want to go and get them. Okay? So you have to be careful. Then, we have the open interest here slightly increasing. We have the funding rates here decreasing. So, we also have quite a few shorts opening. Hence this small cluster here. So, in simple terms, be careful, it could go up to $116,000, but then it will come to eat into the $100,000 mark before long, I think. Remember the big C, a wave C is missing for the structure, a bearish C, and it's this C that ate that. Okay? We'll see that tonight in the analysis, of course. Already, first thing in the morning, some good little news upon waking. Ah, I arrive in front of the computer with my little coffee, and I see Trump announcing an end to negotiations with Canada because he accuses Ronald Rean of having spoken negatively about the tariffs given on an advertisement that was broadcast, and so he said, "Ah yes, it's over, no more negotiations." Well, for now, the markets are crazy. Well, listen, all the better. We'll see if there's an escalation of these tensions with Canada today or tomorrow, in the mode of "I'm putting 150% on Canada." Well, you understand that the markets won't ignore that. Well, so keep that in mind, in the mode of "Canada for now, it could be tense, you see." So today, inflation figures will be released. All eyes of investors, traders are riveted on today at 2:30 PM where they will be released here. Why are there four inflation figures? Because you have figures for a rolling month, a rolling year, and you have general inflation figures that group everything, and also core inflation. We call it core inflation, which removes food and energy, which are very volatile. So, what the rest does. Knowing that at 1:30 AM, Japanese inflation was released, and it came out higher than expected. Okay. It's going up a little bit. Now, it's still very slight. On the other hand, saying "Oh, interest rate cuts and economic stimulus in Japan, well, it's not for anytime soon, unfortunately, you see." Well, so for now, we expect that inflation, like US inflation, the consensus expects a rise in general inflation to 3.1%. So, we understand well what is likely to happen. If inflation comes out at 3.1%, at 3%, or at 2.9%, well, it will go well. You see, the worst-case scenario is general inflation coming out above 3.1%, like 3.2%, and core inflation also coming out at 3.2%. But general inflation is what you look at the most, you see. If it spikes below 2.9%, because Robert and René, who are releasing the inflation figures while watching Disney Plus and Frozen, if it comes out at 2.8%, well, the markets will explode upwards, clearly, you see. So for now, we'll have to be solid on the support because at 2:30 PM, everyone is likely to dance, you see. Well, and we've understood a bit what's going to happen. We also have Matt Miley, chief strategist at Miler Tabac markets, who tells us, "We understand that the Fed has stated that its intention is now focused on the employment situation. But the fact that today's inflation data is very different from expectations could have an impact." Well, yes, because the Fed, Powell, and the American central bank have said repeatedly that they have a dual mandate: to take care of employment and to take care of inflation. Employment is not going well at all, so they prefer to raise here, or rather lower, rates to support employment, even if it fuels inflation. Well, yes, you lower rates, it fuels inflation. Lowering rates means credit is more affordable, companies, everyone borrows, and that's very inflationary. On the other hand, if inflation starts to rise too much, at some point they will say, "Ah, okay, we want to lower rates to help employment, but inflation is rising too much, so we'll wait, we'll do nothing." And that's good. Now, the market expects a rate cut clearly for next week, 98.3% probability of a rate cut. But the problem is that we have no macroeconomic data because the statistics office is closed. They just went to knock on Alfred and Albert's door to get inflation figures. Knock, knock, knock. We need figures for tomorrow. Yeah, well, go on, three. That's it, done. But all the other figures, we have nothing because of the US government shutdown that has been going on for three weeks, you see. Well, so for now, it's going to be tense. Will we really see a rate cut next week, and the markets are rather happy? If the central bank stays put, saying "no, we have no data, we have nothing, we're doing nothing." Well, investors won't like that too much. So we'll have to monitor all of that. You've understood, right? Second news: open interest on Bitcoin options is exploding upwards. We're talking about a new record of $63 billion. What does that mean? What are options contracts? Let's not forget. You have Bitcoin, okay, as we like it, we buy it, we sell it, we own it. That's pure Bitcoin. Then you have a lot of derivatives. These are things people invented, you see, for the underlying asset, Bitcoin, to do a lot of things. You have perpetual contracts. Perpetual, it runs 24/7. It's like futures we have, it's 24/7. For us, spot trading, buying and selling, it's 24/7, it's perpetual. However, for professionals, nothing is perpetual. For them, it's always on a term basis, you see. For example, the stock market is open from morning to evening. They can make contracts betting on the upside or downside, but they always have a specific expiry date. And Bitcoin options contracts are simply you can bet on the upside or downside with an expiry date. You pay a small premium. If, for example, you bet on the upside and your Bitcoin is higher than the level you bet on, you have the right to buy it a bit lower. You see, if you bet on the downside, that Bitcoin will go below $100,000, I'm betting, I'm opening a contract with a premium at $100,000. If it drops to $95,000, you have the right to sell it at $100,000. Well, it's a bit like that. But the good news is that okay, open interest is exploding on Bitcoin contracts, but we have many more open call options than put options. That is to say, the majority of traders here who are exposed to options contracts, okay, which are term contracts with a given expiry date, the end of the month. For example, today, $5 billion will expire, but we're talking about $63 billion in total on the options contract market. So, you see, it's big. Well, they are rather in favor of a Bitcoin rise because the majority here, we have a peak in open interest around $120,000. So, it's rather good news. So, that means that at this moment, the open interest of these options contracts is concentrated on prices higher than the current level. That is to say, traders are betting on a rise. So there is rather a bullish sentiment emerging from all of this regarding these options contracts. We also have Lux Streers, CEO of Deribit, which is the largest platform where almost three-quarters, 80% of options contract openings are there. He tells us that the open interest of puts has increased, which seems to indicate a rise, you see, there is call activity developing around $120,000 and above, which suggests that traders are positioning themselves for potentially upward volatility. Well, rather good news. And the last news this morning, well, everyone is talking about it on social networks, you see, it's Trump who has pardoned CZ. CZ, pardoned, you're all new or not? So, well, it will also have a small impact on the crypto market, which is rather positive. So Trump has pardoned CZ. He signed the decree yesterday, CZ is pardoned. Here, go on, give me $100 million now, or a small billion. Well, it's nothing for you. Go on, a small billion. And so he declared that he had pardoned CZ, Trump, because he had, and I quote, been recommended by many people and had a lot of support, and people say he is not guilty of anything. Well, so basically, P tells us, "I don't know him, I don't think I've ever met him." He tells us he's never met him. Hmm. Well, okay. But I was told he had a lot of support, and they said what he did was not a crime. It was not a crime. He was persecuted by the wicked Biden. That's what he says. Well, we don't care. Well, CZ was convicted. He served 4 months in prison. He served his sentence. So, well, listen, he's not being reproached, right? But I would reproach him. I don't care. You should know that, as a little joke, he was the richest inmate in the history of the United States. I even wonder if it's not the entire history of humanity, because he is one of the richest men in the world. I think he's in the top 20, depending on the price of Binance, because he owns an astronomical amount of BNB, he has at least three-quarters of the circulating BNB, he's the one who has them. So he must be in the top 20, top 25, maybe sometimes top 15, top 10, it depends on the price of BNB. Well, anyway, so he was the richest inmate in history. After, well, he served 4 months in prison, but we were there, we watched this in recent years. It was a luxury prison, a prison where he could do liquidation, he could do horseback riding, he was outside, it was really a 5-star prison. That's for those with money. Well, anyway, after all, the guy didn't commit a serious crime, you see. Well, we have his lawyer, Thesa Gou Guillaume, who tells us, "He committed no fraud, there were no victims, he has no criminal record. There was no money laundering. CZ is the first and only known offender in the history of the United States to have been sentenced to prison for this sole charge, unrelated to fraud." Because basically, as usual, they were guilty of violating US banking secrecy laws, blah blah blah. You remember Gary Gensler, who was cracking down on everything that moved, after the Biden administration's anti-crypto stance, and so they said, "We'll crack down on the CEO of the biggest exchange in the world, and that will calm everyone down." Well, so there's a bit of that too, I think. Well, so CZ pardoned declared yesterday that he was deeply grateful, that he would do everything to help the city, for it to be the crypto capital, to advance web3. So he's going to become a new friend of Trump. So Trump, basically, he writes a little letter, "I pardon him," and he's his new friend, except his friend is someone who trades billions and billions every day. So you understand well that he wants his help rather as a friend, you see. Well, and so now we need to know, well, why is the article important? Because when CZ was convicted, the Biden administration banned him from working with Binance. It's over, you see, even if I think he still had a hand on Binance, and so now that he is pardoned, he could reintegrate Binance. He will arrive, he will kick the CEO, the puppet he put in his place, he will say, "Come on, let's get back to it now, let's get back to business, you see." I don't really know if it's good news because he's a bit sly, this CZ, be careful, he's a bit mischievous, really. Well friends, for this morning's news video, we'll meet on social networks. 2:30 PM inflation, it's going to swing either way. We'll look at that. I'm sending kisses. See you later. Bye bye. [Music]