Transcription
Gold is ripping, Bitcoin slipping. This is becoming the story of 2025. Just weeks after the biggest crypto liquidation in history, the world's oldest store of value is breaking out once again. While the hardest money ever invented can't seem to catch a bid.
What's really going on here? Is capital fleeing backwards from digital to physical collateral? Or is something deeper in play? A coordinated reset where Washington is letting gold repric first while Bitcoin stays suppressed until the timing is right? It sounds wild, but the math, the geopolitics, and the incentives all line up.
Today, we're unpacking a theory that could rewrite how you see the next phase of this monetary realignment, and why Bitcoin's role in it might be far bigger than anyone realizes. Welcome to No Second Best, the show where conviction meets reality and reality points straight to Bitcoin. I'm your host, Hurley. Now, let's get into it.
The macro backdrop here in late 2025 couldn't be louder. The United States is running record peace time deficits. The Fed is quietly cutting rates into sticky inflation and foreign demand for treasuries has been fading for years. At the same time, energy and trade are fragmenting. The Middle East, China, and India are settling more oil outside the dollar. Trust in the US financial system is being tested, and that trust is what gave the dollar its power in the first place.
For Washington, this is an impossible bind. You can't raise rates without detonating the debt. You can't print endlessly without breaking confidence. So what do you do? You buy time and you recolateralize the system quietly in the background. That's where this wild theory starts to make logical sense. Use gold, the one asset that the US actually owns a lot of, to absorb inflation and restore credibility while keeping Bitcoin, the uncontrolled asset, from front running the move.
And right now, the market seems to be playing along. Gold has continued its historic run in 2025, surging to $4,300 per ounce today. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has fallen back below $10,000, nearly a week after the largest liquidation in its history. And when you zoom out, this becomes much more than just a price divergence.
For decades, the dollar's dominance has been anchored by oil. Every barrel priced in dollars kept global demand for US debt alive. But that foundation is starting to crack. Nations are searching for neutral ground. And one voice who's been warning about this shift for years is macro analyst Luke Roman. He was recently on what Bitcoin did and laid it out bluntly. If the petrod dollar system is breaking, there's only one asset that can credibly take its place.
To put it into context, like if this does break down the trust in the Middle East, if the petro dollar system unwinds to a degree where not all oil is going to be priced in the US dollar, that that's a potential future. What does that actually mean for the US bond market? >> Oh, that's a big question. I think there's only one currency can replace a dollar on that as as an as an oil currency and it's gold. And so I think it's noteworthy that the gold to oil ratio has gone from 55 to 65 in a month since the Israelis did that did that. What does it mean for the bond market? It ultimately I think just further accelerates a trend we've already seen which is as we have seen the marginal oil barrel priced outside the dollar over the last 10 years you're going to see more of the marginal oil barrel priced outside the US dollar. There was an article yesterday on Reuters that India is buying oil from Russia and Chinese yuan. Like India and China are very big oil buyers. They're 35% of the world's population. They're both buying oil outside the dollar now. Like the petro dollar has been like it's it's like breaking putting a hole in an airframe at altitude, right? It doesn't take a really big hole for you to lose pressure and start to have bad consequences. What does it mean? I think it ultimately means that the US would have to either significantly shrink deficits, which it can't because the debt's too high and the government spending as a percent of GDP is too high. And so until you devalue the debt, you can't shrink your deficits without going into a debt spiral that we touched about earlier. Or ultimately, you're have to run hot. You're going to have to inflate away debt. You're going to have to nominally grow. You're going to have to invest. And so to me, I think ultimately what does it mean? It just means the real value of treasury bonds. And I would as a proxy for that, I'd look at GLD over TLT, right? The GLD ETF, the gold ETF over TLT, long bond ETF, which is going vertical now. The gold is crushing long the treasuries. I think it's just going to accelerate. It doesn't necessarily mean that the price of treasuries in a vacuum has to crash because there's a number of different levers, but I just think the real value of the treasury market will deteriorate more and perhaps faster as a result of that.
What Groman's saying is simple but profound. If trust in the dollar is fading, the next logical settlement asset for global trade, especially oil, is gold. It's neutral. It's scarce. And it's already on every central bank's balance sheet. Once nations start settling even a small portion of energy trade in gold, the petrod dollar era becomes a multicolateral world. And that's where this theory begins to get interesting.
Now, credit for this theory goes to former bond analyst and Wall Street trader Josh Mandel, who gained some online fame in the Bitcoin community through a series of viral cryptic price predictions shared on X. Most famously, he predicted down to the dollar that Bitcoin would hit $84,000 on March 14th, 2025. A call that earned him the nickname the Bitcoin profit. But the forecast that really split opinion was his $444,000 Bitcoin target as a cycle peak. A price he tied to historical gold revaluations, generational debt cycles, and what he called a coming monetary reckoning.
To some, he's a visionary connecting dots most people can't see. To others, he's just another eccentric trader speaking in riddles. Either way, Mandel's idea that Washington could quietly revalue gold to stabilize the system before pivoting toward Bitcoin has taken on a life of its own. He argues that the United States could effectively re-anchor the dollar by revaluing its official gold reserves. Not through some new Bretton Woods conference, but with a simple accounting trick.
Mandel's math is surprisingly simple. And that's what makes it so compelling. Right now, America holds roughly 8,100 tons of gold on its balance sheet. Officially valued at just $42 an ounce, a price frozen since the Nixon shock in 1971. Mark that gold to market at today's price or better yet to a level that covers a large chunk of the US monetary base and suddenly the Treasury's liabilities look manageable again. Mandel's calculation suggests a revaluation to around $16,000 per ounce would cover roughly 75% of the base. That number might sound crazy, but when you realize it's only a 4x more from where we are today, it feels a lot less like fantasy.
This is the essence of the gold first theory. Repric gold, restore confidence, then roll out the next phase of the dollar system, one that's digital, flexible, and global once again. And that's where Luke Roman connects the dots. Because if you're going to revalue gold quietly in the background, you still need a bridge, a way to keep global capital parked in dollar instruments while you manage that transition. Enter stable coins.
>> Obviously, the this administration have been very open to stable coins, and I wondered if they can try and plug some of the hole in the Treasury. um the demand side of the treasury issuance through stable coins through the proliferation of stable coins and trying to spread those basically as far as w and wide as they possibly can. >> I think that's the plan. I I think ultimately >> has that become the almost new petro dollar system. >> Yes, is the short version. I think that's the goal. I think that's what they would like to have happen. Can it work? I think number one, let's call it what it really is. We can't issue long-term bonds anymore. at rates that we can afford that don't blow up our existing debt and put us into a debt spiral. So, we are going to let stable coins which are cash near cash equivalents proliferate. Translation, we are going to finance our deficit in near cash markets. We're running a 7% deficit. We're going to finance it in near cash markets.
So, here's what this means in plain English. The US can't sell enough longdated debt at sustainable rates. The appetite isn't there. So instead, Washington is exporting short-term treasuries through stable coins. Dollar-backed tokens circulating across the globe that still feed the Treasury market. It's essentially the new petrodollar, but instead of oil producers recycling profits into bonds, it's crypto markets recycling liquidity into digital dollars. That system buys Washington time. It keeps demand for treasuries alive while the debt clock keeps ticking. And while gold quietly climbs its way towards revaluation levels.
And if that's the bridge, the digital plumbing that keeps the dollar world spinning, then Bitcoin represents the end state, the final neutral asset that can exist outside the control of any one nation. But before we get there, the revaluation itself has to happen. Luke Roman again puts the math into perspective. And this is where his logic overlaps almost perfectly with Mandel's.
>> If for anyone listening who is like, "Holy what do I do?" I mean, we know Bitcoin is the answer. Um, you talk about gold a lot. It's funny because the first time you were on the show, I was having a look, it was like five years ago. >> Um, and you were sort of interested in Bitcoin, but you were still a little bit hands off. And now when I read your pieces, every one of them finishes with buy golden Bitcoin. >> So, is the answer literally as simple as that? The way things have evolved, the average person should probably have, in my opinion, 20% of their liquid net worth in some combination of gold and Bitcoin depending on their risk tolerance, age, proximity to retirement, etc. Right? Because obviously, you know, I think over time, all else equal, Bitcoin probably wins >> relative to gold. I mean, it's it's somewhat cliche like, yeah, you need to own gold and Bitcoin, but like you need to own going to Bitcoin. We're in that part of the cycle. It just is what it is. It's the arc, you know, that's all it is. You know, gold and Bitcoin is just the arc to get you through this monetary storm, this monetary flood. That's what's happening. It's it's it's accelerating. Like, you know, I'm the waters up to my knees and I'm still coming in. It's like, well, okay, get busy building the ark faster. It's funny, though. It seems like the world is now waking up to this. JP Morgan came out with their debasement trade. The only thing that I'm not sure about with that is if it's even a trade because that assumes you get out of it at some point. Um like is there a world where you do see selling your gold and >> sure when when does that time come? >> You know for me I you know gold specifically I look at it as a as a what's the price of the dollar right ultimately. So one of the metrics as you know I've published a number of times is the the market value of US official gold relative to the foreign held portion of US treasuries and with this magnificent gold rally that we've had that ratio is 11%. In other words if at market price all US official gold if we have it I'm assuming we do collateralizes our foreign debt at 11%. In 1989 that was 20%. As the Berlin Wall came down, we went into our unipolar moment, you know, it bottomed at like 6%. The long-term average is 40%. So, gold would have to rise nearly 2x from here just to get to the 1989 levels. It would need to rise nearly 4x to get to the long-term average. And if we had an honest to goodness dollar crisis um like we did in 7980, that was a dollar crisis. And gold was at the our the foreign the market value of US official gold was 135% of our foreign held debt. In other words, foreigners could have showed up with their treasuries and said, "Give us gold." And the US still would have had a third of its gold left over after they had extinguished all foreign debt of the United States. That was a gold bubble. We had 135% backed foreign debt. Today, it's 11. And things are not getting better, they're getting worse. So, there's no ability to raise rates to defend the dollar. It's all going to have to. So, the answer to the question is it's 11% of foreign held debt today. The very earliest I would think about selling any gold would be that 20% number, but it's dependent on events. If we're seeing things evolve such that the there's actually a path forward to fiscal austerity versus just run it hot, okay, maybe 20%'s a number. More likely, I probably would I wouldn't even consider till 40%. Now, 40% that get you what is that? Uh $16,000 gold. $15,000 gold. I would probably take some out there. I would maybe I would lend some to the federal government at 15 at at uh 4% at $15,000 gold, but or maybe I'd buy some farmland at that point or something some other more productive asset, but it's about the price of the dollar in in real money terms, in gold terms.
He's talking about the ratio between the market value of US gold reserves and the foreign held portion of US treasuries. In other words, how much of the external debt is backed by real money? Today, that number sits around 11%. In the late 1980s, it was 20%. Historically, it averaged closer to 40%. So, for gold to merely return to that long-term mean, it would need to quadruple from here, landing squarely in the $15 to $16,000 range. That means this might not just be a technical rally. It could be debt devaluation masquerading as a gold bull market. It might just be the scaffolding for a monetary reboot without having to declare one. And it would go a long way toward explaining why Bitcoin's price action looks so restrained right now. Because if gold is being allowed to run, something else may be getting suppressed.
If this theory sounds far-fetched, look at what just happened. Last Friday, we witnessed the largest crypto liquidation in history. Nearly $19 billion in notional value erased in hours. A so-called stable coin exploit triggered a cascade of forced sales across every major exchange. And yet, the timing was perfect. A low liquidity Friday, just as gold was breaking through new all-time highs, and mainstream media was celebrating the debasement trade. All on the back of a Trump tariff post. Maybe it was just a coincidence. Maybe it was leverage gone wrong. But to anyone paying attention, it looked like someone wanted Bitcoin volatility turned off, at least for now.
Because think about it, if Washington is trying to restore confidence through a gold revaluation, the last thing it wants is Bitcoin front running the move. Keep Bitcoin steady, let gold run, and give the world a controlled narrative. One that still points back to the dollar system. And here we are a week later and Bitcoin is looking to continue weakness into the weekend.
Of course, there's another way to read it. Maybe Bitcoin's leg isn't suppression at all. Maybe it's a continuation of the holder rotation we've been seeing play out all year. Big money and plenty of retail could simply be moving out of Bitcoin, convinced the 4-year cycle has topped and chasing perceived upside in gold and equities instead. They think they're playing it safe, capturing the next reflation wave while Bitcoin cools off.
Either way, the signal is the same. Gold's doing the heavy lifting right now, but Bitcoin remains the escape hatch once trust in every other collateral breaks down. And that's where the game theory points. Because while gold can be revalued, Bitcoin can't be repriced by decree. It's the only asset that settles itself. And that makes it the logical end point of this entire realignment.
And if you're watching this thinking, I want exposure before that shift happens, now is the time to do it the right way. The Swan Private Team works with high net worth families, individuals, and companies who want to build generational Bitcoin positions safely, securely, and strategically. The Swan Private Team helps clients understand the macro forces driving this transition and how to own real Bitcoin, not paper IUS. Because the goal isn't to trade the next crash, it's to survive and thrive through all of them. Visit swan.com/noscbest to learn more.
Whether this gold-first theory proves deliberate or not, the incentives are undeniable. The US has every reason to repric what it owns before embracing what it can't control. If gold repairs the balance sheet, it's a no-brainer that Bitcoin secures the future one. And quietly, that next chapter may already be underway. Global Bitcoin hash rate has been in a 4-year bull run, setting new records month after month, a strong signal that large-scale industrial and likely nation state mining is already happening behind the scenes. The US government is looking to add an additional 127,000 seized Bitcoin, giving it a leading sovereign-sized position without ever having to buy a SAT. And even the Trump family's media and mining ventures are leaning deeply into Bitcoin, a sign that this administration is front running a generational Bitcoin rally whenever it materializes.
So whether this suppression is intentional or simply psychological, the outcome doesn't change because there are still only 21 million Bitcoin and every player in this global chess match is starting to realize it. Maybe this really is the plan. Let gold run, rebuild confidence, then pivot and rugpull the BRICS nations to a Bitcoin-backed system. Or maybe it's all just coincidence, the market front running the future on its own. Either way, the destination is the same. Gold might be the state's arc, but Bitcoin is humanity's.
So, what do you think? Is Bitcoin's sluggish price action just another cycle shakeout, or a sign that something bigger is being managed behind the scenes? And could Washington really be orchestrating a gold revaluation to reset the system before turning to Bitcoin? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and if you found this episode valuable, make sure to like it, share it with a friend, and don't forget to subscribe to the Swan Bitcoin channel so you don't miss the next video. Thanks for watching and remember there is no second best.