Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Tuesday, December 16th brief, it is 8:45 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. Clearly, I was wrong. So, I was predicting a pump through this range. Uh, but well, we had a bearish movement. Some whales sold. We also had news about that. So consequently, the rebound was not enough. So we had indeed rebounded in the predicted zone, right. The goal was not to go below this zone. And if it returned below, it was clearly to go much lower. And that's what happened. So currently, we have completely turned bearish. We have very, very little chance of an upswing, unless the spot market picks up again. But currently here, in any case, it doesn't make you want to go long at all. In my opinion, we should prioritize a liquidity grab if we do pump, to then go and seek liquidity below, at a minimum below this zone at $83,000, because you will understand why based on the data, there are a lot of longs currently open on this potential bottom and on the dump. And if on a dump you have a lot of longs opening, logically the stops are placed below the next lot, and the next lot is $83,787. So it is very probable that we will go and get them. So if we look at the data today, we will have rather important economic news. We will have non-farm payrolls at 2:30 PM, the unemployment rate, which is the most important news of the day, but we will also have the services PMI at 3:45 PM. So expect a lot of movement today. Tomorrow as well, no, tomorrow we will have nothing, but this week, on Thursday we have American inflation at 2:30 PM. So expect movement, and on Friday, we will have the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates. So clearly, it will be an impactful news as well, as well as the Core PCE at 2:30 PM. So that has a direct impact on inflation and on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. So expect movement. Regarding crypto bubbles, what we see is that we have red everywhere. It's normal, we had a dump on Bitcoin. So we clearly have between -4% and -10% on altcoins. We even have -12% on Aster, there were a lot of longs to take on that. So the lot, or rather, we are currently at an all-time low on it. So clearly, it has taken all the liquidity. So now, if we were to have a rebound and Aster were sufficiently solid, we could take off again. But in any case, it's not for now. Regarding funding open interest, as I was telling you, we had, on this dump, a huge increase in open interest. So that means more people entered, got stopped out, and yet we liquidated a lot. So that's something interesting. If we look, we will look for example at the last 24 hours, how much liquidation we had. In terms of liquidation over the last 24 hours, we are at $658 million, and we still had an open interest that increased. So that means that even on that, we had an increase in open interest. So we had more entries than $650 million yesterday. And clearly, when we look, we see open interest rising with funding rates also rising. This clearly means that everything here is exclusively longs that opened. And when we look here, it's the same thing. We had an increase in open interest with an increase in funding rates. Which means that here too, longs opened. And if we look a little bit here, so here we had a few shorts that opened just here. So we had an increase in open interest with a drop in funding rates. Which means that here, a few shorts entered. Potentially, we stopped them out when we made a new high. Logically, they would have been stopped out. So, we have currently, in my opinion, stopped out the shorts that entered. We don't have that many either. We have all of this to go and get. So logically, open interest could return to its base. So if we want to return to the base, clearly, in my opinion, we will have to liquidate below the zone, which is located, I will switch to 1 hour. In my opinion, it's a bit further. There. So we will have to go below the zone which is located just here, at $83,800. So this is rather interesting, and we see it clearly. We have a huge increase in open interest with rising funding rates in H1, and clearly, that's where it's at. So logically, we should go and look for liquidity below the open interest here. And if we want to go and look for liquidity below the open interest, it's at a minimum here, or here. So pay close attention to that. Regarding liquidations, what we see over the last 48 hours is that we have a small cluster to go and get at $87,856. We also have a liquidity cluster. But if I switch to the symbol and BTC, we clearly see that we have a cluster to go and get just below. And otherwise, we have a small cluster to go and get at 88. So why not, if we go and get this zone, try a short if we have a setup on the timeframe in this zone. But in any case, it is very probable that we will go and get this zone to then go and get the dump. If we look over a week, it's the same thing. So we have liquidations on the rise, just in this zone. We have a nice cluster to go and get here, but we still have a little bit below. So it could be interesting to simply go and clear out the shorts before going back to clear out the longs again. If we look at what the whales are doing, there is nothing bullish currently. So we had rather massive whale sales, as well as micro whales and retail. So clearly, as long as we don't see any buying on the spot market, as long as the spot market doesn't push clearly, we will have absolutely nothing bullish currently. So clearly, I'm telling you, I was wrong. I was predicting a pump around $98,000 to then potentially go for a dump if people start going long, and potentially a much higher pump if people start going short. But clearly, that's not the case. So what we also have, we had this zone here, so it has been removed. I don't know why, maybe I'm not on the right chart, but in any case, we had this clear bearish flag right here, and we see that at the moment we rebounded on it, at one point we retested it from below. And so why not go and get this FVG, go and get the test of the bearish flag. That could be interesting to do something like this, where we go and get this zone and then we go completely down to get at a minimum this lot. So that doesn't mean we will necessarily go and get this lot here. It can be enough to go and get this to then simply be in a range where, at one point or another, a decision is made on the price. But in any case, for now, we are in a range and logically, we should go and get this lot at a minimum at $83,767. So if we have a short setup, I think I will short, but currently it's not very useful to short because the stop loss would be a bit too far. So, that's the plan for the day. There's not much more to say currently, except that we are bearish and that for now, it's not about to change. We would really need to go above $90,000 to become bullish again. So that simply means that there is nothing to do long currently, and it's better to prioritize shorting. So, I hope this video was enjoyable. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.