Transcription
What's up everyone? Just thought I'd get out of the office a little bit, have a walk around and talk to you candidly about my thoughts on the market, where I think we're heading over the next few weeks and months and my top ways to play Q4 cuz we're about to head into Q4.
Everyone's saying, well, was saying that it was going to be a very bullish period in the market. Obviously, now that we've had a little bit of weakness, we're starting to see the bears come back out again and say that the cycle's over and say that Bitcoin's topped. So, I want to talk about how I actually think the rotation is occurring and why it's occurring the way it is. And I'm also going to give you some of my top plays in today's video. So, top narratives for Q4, top all coins for Q4, and roughly how I'm thinking about my portfolio positioning for this period in the market.
Because I'm not going to lie, the way you need to play the game now is extremely different from the way that you could play the game, let's say, earlier this year or last year. It's taken a lot of adaptation to succeed in this market because truthfully, this market is harder than it used to be. So, if you want to succeed as well, I think a few of the points in today's video are going to help you out tremendously. So, without further ado, let's get straight into things. And of course, if you're not already subscribed, make sure you click that subscribe button so you can watch my daily market updates, which are going to be in full force next week. Hopefully, we come with the alpha.
If you're wondering where I am, I'm in uh lovely Dubai. We got the Royal Atlantis there behind me and um and the ocean. It's super nice at this time. You can just come out, enjoy the sunset. Sometimes I go for a swim. Very very nice. But you guys aren't here for life updates. You're here for market alpha.
So look, what I think has happened is we saw the rotation from Bitcoin into ETH um into Salana. And that rotation happened super quick. So clearly we saw like the front running um of the ETH Treasury bid, then we saw the Salana bid. I think a lot of people expected ETH to have a little bit more veracity to actually come and uh you know break its all-time high, but that wasn't the case. It ended up being I think a super quick rotation and we never really saw uh the cycle rotate into alts. So we didn't see that you know typical flow of funds. We we kind of saw things just um just stop after the Salana rotation basically.
So, what I think needs to happen now, and this is also in line with what I'm seeing on Bitcoin dominance, given the fact that dominance has bounced, is a bit of a rotation back from altcoins into Bitcoin again. And obviously, this has already started to happen, but I do think this will probably occur for at least a few more weeks. That's what the the trend looks like in terms of where Bitcoin dominance is, in terms of the overall structure of the market. And the reason I think that needs to happen is because we need to see a bid on Bitcoin to pave the way for the next leg in the market. Bitcoin has basically led all these rallies. It led the Ethereum bid and then it led you know that front running that we saw on altcoins. So we do need Bitcoin um to exhibit some strength before I think we get that next rotation. So that's why I think um this dominance trend is is going to last for a little bit while longer.
In terms of where Bitcoin could bottom, I mean you know there's a there's a key level at 105. There's obviously a key level at 100. There's a key level at 98. It's not really something we can answer right now because we just need to see what price action looks like at the time. But I would rather give you a time frame. And I think that time frame is probably within the next few weeks. I think it would be a little bit poetic for everyone to call a Q4 top or a Q4 rally and then see the start of Q4 be horrible or choppy or sideways and then for everyone to lose conviction in that narrative only for the market to rip higher towards the middle of Q4. Like that's definitely something that uh that could happen and it's probably you know the path of max pain for a lot of investors that'll naturally start capitulating if that does occur. So just keep in mind that that is a scenario that's on the cards right now.
This period of the year however and this basically happens every year is typically super slow for the market. We see pretty much every year this August and September period being quite boring. I think the only outlier this year was the fact that we had such a strong run in the middle of the year with the huge Bitcoin treasury bid that we saw. You know obviously Sailor was pumping a lot of buyers into the market and the market really front run that and that was a massive narrative that made you know Bitcoin just keep going up and up and up. So I think a lot of our price discovery instead of happening now happened in the middle of the year and naturally this period is coinciding with uh cyclical quietness in the market and now you're seeing you know people wondering like you know what's next but I still don't think the high on Bitcoin is in and thus I still don't think the high on Ethereum is in. I just think we are due for a little bit more pain before the trend reverses. And I guess the only reason I'm saying that is just based on the price action like you have to be pretty objective with these things and looking at the price action. Bitcoin still making lower highs. It's in a downtrend. We talk about it a lot on the on the channel. We've actually been looking at that regression channel that Bitcoin is in. We do need to start making higher highs and higher lows to start working our way out of that. So, of course, I'll update you when that does happen.
Now, I want to pivot to talking about altcoins because it's a very weird period in the market at the moment. And I say it's weird because I haven't seen a dynamic like this in quite some time. We're seeing polarity in the market pretty much being at all-time highs between the overall structure of the altcoin market where most alts are, you know, sideways or bleeding out versus the amount of subsequent opportunity in the market. So, we're at a very weird period where there's basically really weak conditions across the board for all coins. But at the same time, there are these set of trades which are performing marketkedly well. I mean, look at Aster. That was a massive trade. Then we had this crazy per DEX trade with uh Apex and then we saw the XPL launch, the plasma launch do really really well and do multiples off launch and like just so much opportunity in the market like for traders it's been an amazing few weeks. Obviously you know the the ATA trade for example was a huge one. I called it in my Discord at 50 that run up to $2.50. I know Fabian in uh in the Discord as well had a big trade on Apex the other night. He called it two nights ago and it's already 3x since then. So, it's been a really abundant time if you're in the no and if you're trading, but it's been a very difficult time if you're an investor. And this is why I'm saying there's a big polarity or a big discrepancy in the market at the moment.
So, obviously join the Mass High Club if you want the latest scoop on all coins and and all the amazing fundamental analysis in there. I mean, Fabian is just an absolute killer. He's probably one of the best fundamental analyst f coins that I've ever seen in my time in the space and I'm very lucky to have him in there honestly because um I definitely owe him a beer probably a lot more than a beer next time he's in Dubai because he you know I've just followed so many of his trades and and ended up doing really really well off them. Um, but nonetheless, the point I'm trying to make with this stuff is the game has kind of changed because I think if you're holding a big portfolio of altcoins, like a big bloated portfolio of 15, 20, 25 alts, you're probably massively underperforming because the market is kind of engineered against you right now. And what I mean by that is there are just so many new multi-billion dollar launches coming onto the market, it's pretty hard for altcoins to survive price-wise because of the amount of dispersion. Like as I said, we had Plasma, we had Asta, we have coming very soon Mega E, we have Monad, we have OpenC, we have Metamas talking about a token. Like everyone right now is launching tokens and there just isn't enough new liquidity coming into the market to prop up the market.
So I think right now your natural default position has to be a little bit more defensive. Like hold more stable coins as your base mechanism. Like right now I'm holding close to 50% of my portfolio in stables. And it's not because I'm like super bearish. Like I still think there's good upside in the market. And it's not because, you know, I'm trying to be super defensive. It's actually because I'm being opportunistic. I know that I need liquidity to take advantage of these moves. Like I hit a great Aster trade. It was my biggest trade of the year. If I didn't have liquidity, if I didn't have stable coins, I wouldn't have been able to capitalize on that trade. I wouldn't have been able to actually capitalize in time because I would have had to, you know, sell other positions to rotate in and it would have been a mess. Having stable coins at your disposal means that you can strike while the iron is hot. And in an environment like this where the market is really favoring the traders and really favoring those who are in the no and are, you know, scrolling through Discord, scrolling through Telegram, scrolling through their X feed because it's favoring that side of the market, it does make sense to have your default stable coin balance a little bit higher than normal. Now, maybe 50% is, you know, extreme for everyone. Maybe some people will be closer to 20%. But I think it's definitely warranted in this environment.
The other thing I think that should be your focus in the market and it's definitely a focus of mine is instead of holding as I said like 20 altcoins, hold a bit more of a high conviction portfolio because as I said the odds are skewing against you the more altcoins you're holding now because of dispersion. But the odds are actually in your favor if you hit the right narrative and the right trend because the right trends and we've seen this over the past few months like ENA did really well, Mnt did really well. Obviously the AA trade and recently the plasma trade. All of these narratives in the market have been super strong and have had really concentrated liquidity coming into them. So I think to actually benefit from this current meta right now, you need to actually go into less trades, but when you do trade, you need to act with higher conviction. This isn't like 2021 where you can hold 20 altcoins and expect them all to pump at once. this market is favoring high conviction in select few trades and then when you actually back them back them with size. So I do find my average um dollar amount per trade now is a lot higher but the amount of trades I'm taking are a lot less. Like at the moment what I'm trying to do is really just hit like one or two trades every few weeks instead of being in like 20 trades at once. And that was definitely something that I did in 2024. Like there were periods where I was in like 10 to 20 meme coins at once cuz that was the meta. But the meta's changed now. And the reason I'm saying this today is because I still see a lot of people playing the current game by the old rules. And if you're underperforming, you have to ask yourself why. Like don't get defensive. Don't say, "Oh, the market's against me. The market's rigged." Or blame other people. I think you really have to look at your system objectively because this is something that I had to do in the middle of the year when I was underperforming for a little period and, you know, ask myself why I was underperforming. And one of the reasons was, you know, simply I held too many altcoins.
So, what are some of the narratives that you can actually look into to make strong gains in this next period in the market? Let's talk about that now because you know if you're going to concentrate into lesser trades instead of holding a more bloated portfolio you know to capitalize on the polarity in the market because although the alt game is difficult on the other side of that game there's a lot of opportunities and what you're actually seeing is because institutional interest is so strong and because people have a risk appetite to make money and because people are seeing all these trades popping off when there are moves the moves are actually quicker and more violent than ever. Like if you go into Coin Gecko on any given day now, you're seeing coins doing 2, three, 4 X's. Like there is demand at the moment to actually bid the right narratives. It's just being dispersed across what I would call like a popcorn market.
So what would I be focusing on? Well, the first narrative that I'd be focusing on are stable coins. I think this is the big one. And obviously Plasma set the tone. In terms of my thoughts on the Plasma token, I actually think it's a pretty good long if you're looking, you know, as a midterm long into Q4. The only thing I'd be careful of is getting the right entry. There are a lot of ICO investors who are massively up on that trade and they are taking profits. I know a lot of them would have, you know, tped on launch, but I still think there is a bit of a trade there. Like that could definitely be a higher conviction bet you hold into Q4. I think another strategy at the moment with these new launches if you miss the ICO. So obviously, you know, if you're part of Echko or you're part of Legion, and you should definitely sign up for these apps, by the way, you can potentially get access to the ICOs um in Mars High Club. When I have an opportunity to alert you guys, I'll alert you guys, but admittedly, they are difficult to get into, right? So, if you do miss them, what you can do is you can actually buy on TGE if it's a good project at a decent valuation. Of course, you can buy on TGE if there's um a big sell-off because a lot of the time, like investors will just dump their tokens on the first day to cash out. They don't really care that they might be getting out, you know, at a suboptimal price cuz they got in at a really optimal price, you know, like if they got into plasma at 2 cents and they sell at 70, they don't care if it's fair price is $2. So, you're actually seeing these dumps on a lot of these TGEs which are giving you opportunities to buy in. And plasma was the case when it dipped to like 70 odd cents and then went to like a $160 the next day. So, that's a little bit of alpha for you. But stable coins I I think are a very strong narrative. Um, even projects like Sepool are moving more into stable coins. I still hold that project because I think that's a really smart pivot. Um, but there are a few others as well and we'll get into it, you know, in other videos. I want to keep this video a little bit more concise.
I think the next narrative to look into is Per Dexes. Now, obviously, per Dex's have already run really hard, and I kind of think the trade for now is a little bit over. Like, it's starting to get um just a little bit too fast for my liking. like the rotations from, you know, like AA to Avantis and then we saw the rotation into Apex. Once again, Fabian's trade and that was amazing. Make sure to join Mars High Club. Um, I'll leave a link in the description below. That was a I think a 3x in 2 days. So, it's been amazing to trade. But in terms of holding spot positions in these coins into the next period, um, I think the only one that I'm holding uh, still is I'm holding a little bit of Astera, but I've sold 90% of my position now. Holding 10% of a moon bag. And then I've got a little bit of Apex which I laded into on today's dip at around I think it dipped back down to a$160. So I put a little bit of capital in because I think that could potentially 2x but I'm not sure whether that'll be a midterm play. So I think the more attractive thing with these per dexes is to actually look at farming because although it's they're harder to trade now and although there's a lot of competition and dispersion in that sector, I do think there are still big farming opportunities um and bigger opportunities to um qualify for incentives program. So I think a still a reasonable one to farm. Uh I think lighter is still a reasonable one as well. I think um although you know it's not as good of an opportunity as it was earlier in the year. Sorry for constantly shilling Fabian, but he also in April posted about this in the Discord. And he actually posted about AA in June, which is just crazy. June, like it's insane. I had to go through the Discord the other day and I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. But um if you've been farming that in in the Discord since April, well done. But um that one I think still has a little bit of an opportunity, albeit less than it was before.
Another big airdrop farming opportunity I think is on plasma. There's lots of incentives for USDT deposits. Um, obviously nothing in crypto is risk-f free, but probably lesser risk than than farming other chains as well. So, our calculator guy did an amazing video on that. I'll leave a link in the description for you guys. That was that was probably the best guide that I've seen on the plasma airdrop farming. So, I think with a lot of these like per dexes and a lot of these new launches, if you can't get an optimal entry, the best thing to do is actually farm and take advantage of incentives because, okay, maybe the altcoin market structurally is a bit more difficult due to the amount of new launches, but new launches means that there are lots of incentive opportunities. So, there are lots of chances for you to actually like, you know, pick money off the floor in this market essentially.
Another another little tip for you guys is you can actually go on to DeFi Lama. There's a tab called airdrops and it lists all the tokenless protocols in the market. If you cross reference with crypto rank every single day or you know you could have a system where you do this once every two days and you look at the backers behind the projects and where they raise you can actually find good airdrop opportunities in the market. And this is something that I'll do periodically like admittedly once a week but if I was like full-time airdrop farming I do it every single day. I just look at the protocols um that have launched that don't yet have a token and you can kind of make an assessment based on the backers and do a little bit of basic research on X to work out whether there's a potential airdrop opportunity there.
And just to go back to narratives, another narrative I think that's going to do really well um is AI. Now I know AI is like a really broad sector and the agents in general haven't performed that well, but I'm not talking about agents. I'm talking about compute. I think the compute narrative is hotter than ever. There are a few projects which I'm accumulating right now. I'm actually going to make a video on this probably next week. So, make sure you're subscribed to the channel. Um, because I think there's a lot of opportunity in the AI sector in general. And I think what makes it interesting is there's a lot of uh tradi or like institutional interest that's outside of the crypto market. So, a lot of the top AI protocols I think are very interesting propositions for a variety of reasons.
So, I think for now I'm going to leave it at that because we're going to be doing, you know, lots of market updates throughout the week. I just wanted to come on give you a bit of a different video. Uh we got the Burj Alarab down there if you can see it. Both Atlantises. That's the Royal Atlantis. Let's see if I can find the other one. The other Atlantis is there, but it's literally right behind the sunset, which is blowing out on on the exposure cuz uh you know, otherwise my face would be too dark. But um yeah, just thought I'd give you a bit of a different style video today and just talk through the market. Um, I think the game has changed, but there are also so many opportunities and I'm like genuinely over the past few days, I've really just been locked in to trading and and I found multiple opportunities um, which you know we'll speak about in due time. Like even the Apex trade today for example, like there are just so many interesting opportunities at the moment. So that's why I say there's like polarity. There's a big discrepancy between the altcoin market in general. Like if you're holding a portfolio of alts, you probably feel pretty bad right now. But if you're actively trading this market and if you're, you know, in tune with the narratives, you'll also understand how life-changing some of this stuff is at the exact same time. So, very, very weird discrepancy at the moment, but one you can certainly capitalize on. Um, if you're in the know, and hopefully on this channel, you're in the know. So, click the subscribe button uh for more videos. I'll leave a link to the Miles High Club in the description below, which is my Discord where all of this stuff goes down first with all of our amazing analysts, and I'll see you next week. Have a lovely rest of your weekend and I'll see you on Monday.