Transcription
Bitcoin continues its rebound after a strong fight yesterday. We see the cryptocurrency market recovering. Ethereum is up 3.5%, and altcoins are also recovering. Today, we had the monthly close, which will tell us a lot about what's next. As usual, friends, if you like the program, stay with me until the end of this broadcast because that's what we're going to look at right away. Good morning to all of you, friends. I hope you are doing well. So, as you saw in the introduction, Bitcoin is continuing its rebound. We saw a very strong fight yesterday. It's likely to happen again today. So, it's an extremely important day. We also had the monthly closes, which are extremely long-term closes and will allow us to know what will happen in the coming weeks and months. You will see with me that this was a completely saved close, so it's very important. So, as usual, stay until the end of the broadcast. Don't hesitate to leave your best like and tell me in the comments an altcoin you would like me to analyze in the next broadcast. The altcoin that came out the most is Tao Too Sort. So obviously, we will proceed to its analysis today. So team, we are here for a quick global review of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is up 2.6%, so a rather good performance. We are continuing the rebound we experienced, and on top of that, we completely saved yesterday's close. So there is a lot of information, quite a few things moving, but especially clear signals. A rebound is happening, altcoins are following, even outperforming Bitcoin. Ethereum is up 3%, Solana is up 4.7%, we see Cardano up 5.2%. Bitcoin Cash is up 7.4%, AVAX is also currently on fire with 5.9%. In short, things are going rather well. We will confirm this rebound. We will also look at the monthly close together and try to ensure what will happen in the coming weeks. We will quickly look at the Scalpex index. As we can see, we are currently even attacking previous liquidity. We are also confirming a 4-hour structure called an inverse head and shoulders. This is clearly the structure we wanted to see. It is an extremely bullish structure that confirms a bullish reversal both from a short-term trend perspective and from a dynamic perspective. This movement, this structure, is a structure that allows for maximum long positions to be exited. So very few longs managed to position themselves on this movement, as we have a first hunt, a second hunt, and a third hunt, which is very interesting. On the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, we see neutrality at 49. So for now, it's more of a 50/50. 50% of the crypto market thinks we will go higher. 50% of the crypto market thinks we will go lower. Now, what's interesting to see is that we are accelerating. We will also look at liquidations, but especially this bullish acceleration is causing open interest to decrease. So we can concretely see that there are still many investors, but especially leveraged traders, who are not sure about this rebound and are not jumping on leverage. So you know, the healthier a bullish movement is, the less it is over-leveraged. And currently, well, that's the case, we have very little leverage and we have already liquidated the majority of the longs that were positioned with leverage. We can easily see this through liquidations. On September 22nd, we liquidated almost 3 billion dollars in long positions. That's just huge. I can tell you that I have very rarely seen days with so many long liquidations. Then, we went to get 1 billion, almost 100 million dollars in long positions on September 25th. So, we really looked for a very big liquidation spike and we got rid of maximum leverage. Now, currently, it's rather calm. We saw yesterday that we liquidated almost 200 million dollars in short positions. 241 million dollars in long positions, and currently what are we doing? We are rebounding. So after a small spike in long liquidations, even a very big dip followed by a small one, the fact that we see a continuation of the bullish movement shows us that the whales are interested in pushing higher and going after the shorts. Currently, we have 31 million dollars in short positions liquidated, which shows that we are only at the beginning of the short squeeze. We have not yet reached a short liquidation peak. This confirms that we can continue this movement, and that's a very, very good sign. So we will confirm all of this. Here we see Bitcoin on a daily chart. So I mentioned it in the previous broadcast, the one on Monday, that we are in an important week, a week in which there will be a lot of fighting. We saw it yesterday, we had a big selling force that was exerted. Fortunately, buyers managed to save this close. We completely bought back the wick, and we see that for now, we are concretely continuing. If today's day closes well above 114824, which is yesterday's high, then we confirm a buyer recovery, but especially we confirm that buyers have the momentum, have the strength in the movement. So that's a very, very good sign. We can concretely see that on the three bullish Japanese candlesticks we made previously, we are full of buyers. So here, buyers are really dominating the rebound, and that's a very, very good sign. I remind those who haven't seen Monday's broadcast that it's important to watch it, but especially that we have returned to Bitcoin's key support zone, which was the previous ATH. So it's a very, very good sign to find a rebound there, but I also remind you that we are currently in a structure that is rather bullish. We made a higher low than the previous one. So the objective normally, if we maintain this bullish trend start well, we should aim for a new high. We made a higher high than the previous one, a higher low than the previous one. So according to Dow theory, we are supposed to aim for a new high. Okay. Now, what I also remind you is that Bitcoin is still discovering new ATHs. This means that we have very few resistance zones above our heads. The only resistance zone is here at 117241, which is a small resistance zone. And the second resistance zone, which is likely to be a bit stronger and defended by sellers, is here between 119800 dollars and 11891. So for Bitcoin, that's pretty much all there is to say from a structural point of view. Now, what's very important to look at is momentum. Momentum, we see today, we witnessed a crossing of the long-short ratio. We are re-attacking the neutrality zone. So it's clearly today and tomorrow that we will have a lot of fighting, but especially that we will have either a validation of this bullish recovery or a real defense by sellers. We want to see a long-short ratio recover this neutrality zone, move back above it to confirm that the dynamic is once again for buyers, but especially that the strength in the movement is oriented towards buyers. This will allow us to easily aim much higher later, to reach buyer exhaustion zones, and this could allow us to make a new ATH quite easily on Bitcoin. The MACD is already a bit further ahead. I remind you that we had a lot of bullish divergences, a nice hidden bullish divergence at this level as well between the low of May 2025 and the one we made in September here. So we had buying strength that came in. Currently, by regaining the neutrality zone we are doing today, we are confirming all these divergences. So if today we close well above the neutrality zone, and the long-short ratio also manages to recover its neutrality zone, it will be a clear signal. Momentum, so the strength in the movement, is once again on the buyers' side. We will exert all these bullish divergences, and therefore we will have a strong movement with a lot of strength for the buyers. Okay, so on Bitcoin, things are going well here on a daily basis. Now, as I announced at the beginning of the broadcast, we had the monthly close. Let's take a look. Monthly closes are very important. We had a monthly close for August 2025 that was really scary. Why? Because we had the close for July 2025. A very big wick was sold off. And then here, again, a very big wick sold by sellers, obviously, so selling pressure, and especially a close that formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and that's generally a very bad sign. That's why we had this little fear, this little Sword of Damocles, telling us that in the short term, we were probably starting a rather bearish movement. Fortunately, this month of September, we made a bullish engulfing pattern of this bearish engulfing pattern. Now, it sounds complex, but it's very simple. We had a strong buying force that completely nullified the bearish engulfing pattern we made previously. And that's a clear signal that buyers defended this zone and don't want to see Bitcoin go much lower. Obviously, we have quite a few wicks. So we can concretely see that there is a defense of this entire zone here between 115680 and 124526 dollars. So on Bitcoin, we need to remain cautious. For now, we are in consolidation rather than a bullish trend, a recovery of a bullish trend. But in any case, this monthly close has completely saved the previous monthly close. We obviously want to continue the movement of this monthly close. Beware of fake pumps at the beginning of the month. So that's also why we will need to confirm in the next two to three days that we are indeed in a bullish recovery. In any case, the monthly close is rather encouraging. Fortunately, we managed to save this rather bearish close for August. That's it for Bitcoin. Not much more to say, obviously. Why can we emphasize that Bitcoin is in a bullish recovery? Well, it's gold, gold, as you know, the main safe haven. When liquidity enters gold, liquidity enters Bitcoin and some other crypto assets. That's often how it happens. It simply shows that investors and management funds are protecting themselves from currency deflation, but also from economic slowdown, which makes the stock market riskier and no longer necessarily of great interest. So gold, well, we see it, new ATH, 3897 dollars, very strong recovery, enormous volume. Obviously, there will always be profit-taking. So this is likely to lead to new assets, and you know, Bitcoin is often a big winner of liquidity and profit-taking from gold. Simply because Bitcoin is more liquid, easier to transport, and in addition, obviously, there is the possibility of making your money work more easily. So gold, a very strong recovery, obviously be careful, we are still in overbought zones, even in buyer exhaustion zones. So in the short term, it will be difficult for gold to really continue. Even though I remind you that when an asset is discovering new ATHs, even being in a buyer exhaustion zone can allow it to continue the movement. So gold is healthy, it's going very well. Those who have it in their portfolio, it's interesting. It depends on when you entered, but some profit-taking can be interesting. And otherwise, well, obviously, it shares a positive signal for Bitcoin. We will move directly to Ethereum. Just before, I welcome all the new members of the Logic team. More and more of you are subscribing and activating the bell, which is extremely pleasing. I remind all those watching this broadcast that if you wish, you can subscribe and activate the bell. It's completely free. It will allow you to access professional-level cryptocurrency market analysis. I am here to help and guide you in the crypto market to avoid pitfalls and maximize your gains. So don't hesitate, team, join us and welcome to all the new members of the Logic team on Ether. So, it's very simple, as we saw in the previous broadcast, we re-entered the range. So that's a very good sign. We had what's called a deviation and re-entry. So that's typically the kind of movement we like because it shows that we are hunting. We create a lot of pessimism, and the fact of re-entering shows us that buyers are defending this zone. We have obviously saved our big support zone, but especially that the interest is now above. This means that we have liquidity that is rather short, all those who are leveraged and short who are above the price, and therefore we have an interest in returning to this zone and going after liquidity. So, keeping all this in mind, Ether has returned to its very big long-term support zone, as you can see here, which also materializes the neckline of the very big W we are in. So we just did a backtest on this support zone, which is a very, very good sign. If we take a step back from a momentum perspective, the long-short ratio, we see that Ether has lost some steam during this entire decline. So be careful in the short term, we could be in consolidation or in a fight to see if buyers or sellers want to take the lead. But in any case, we have exhausted the sellers, which can give us a clue that soon, Ether is simply preparing a recovery. We are likely to retest the neutrality zone anyway, and that's where we will clearly have the signal. If we retest it and ultimately cross downwards, that's a very bad sign. It will show that sellers have the upper hand, and it will look something like this, and at that point, Ether will go much lower. So obviously, be careful with Ether, we are in zones of profit-taking rather long-term. Obviously, I'm not saying you should sell all your holdings, but I'm just saying that once you've been in Ether for a while, and you're sitting on 2.5x or 3x gains, there can be some profit-taking. In any case, for now, sellers are rather exhausted. Let's try to see. Be careful, for now, momentum is still in the selling zone. So, we still have a possibility for sellers to try to defend. That's why in the previous broadcast, I told you that for me, Ethereum will slightly continue its range before a real decision. Okay? And that's interesting because obviously, we are in a profit-taking zone, and when we are in a profit-taking zone on Ethereum after Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin, well, generally we follow the cycles, and it means that liquidity is entering large-cap, big crypto projects. So keep a close eye on this, it could allow us to start, to trigger the beginning of the altcoin season when large caps perform, and even outperform Bitcoin and other assets. I will just briefly look at the monthly close. We see a monthly close of slight indecision. A big fight from sellers, a big defense from buyers. So for now, Ethereum's monthly close is a close that we see as a defense from both buyers and sellers. So we had a very big fight. It's a bit this month that will serve as a turning point, to see if we manage to recover or not. We are currently in a double bottom, as you can see at this level, which we have retested. So if Ethereum manages to continue the movement this month, it means we are validating this double bottom, and therefore we will aim for the objective. I have calculated the range of the previous movement, which would bring us between 7901 dollars and 966 dollars for Ether in the first instance. So, we are closely monitoring all of this. The current month will be very important for Ether to know whether or not we are validating this double bottom. As long as we stay above this support zone of 3812 to 4074 dollars, Ethereum will remain in a clearly bullish dynamic. On Crypto Total 3, we will move on just after Tao Bitensor. So stay until the end of the broadcast. We see an attack on this previous resistance zone. So I remind you that it had become a resistance because we had broken it downwards. We had seen together in the previous broadcast that if we retested it but were rejected, it was a bad sign and we would have probabilities of returning to look for liquidity zones below 1000 billion. For now, that's not the case, and that's a good sign. Here you see it, a retest as support, and for now, we are trying to form a small W on it, which can be a very good sign. If we close today above 1090 billion, it will be a very good sign to announce that we were in a bearish trap at this level, that we have flushed out weak hands, and that we are finally continuing the movement. This will simply show us higher lows, higher highs, and therefore an objective to reach a new high, which could even allow us to reach a new ATH. So this is very important and interesting to watch, friends. Concretely, here, we are on the verge of confirming or not a recovery of liquidity that will flow into altcoins first, large caps, but then it will spread throughout the market. I also remind you that we are working on the neutrality zone. So it's today and tomorrow that we want to see a good orientation and therefore the fact that we are saving this neutrality zone. This will affirm that the dynamic is bullish and also that the momentum, the strength in the movement, is on the buyers' side, and at that point, we can strongly relaunch. So a very good sign for now to recover this resistance zone which has now become support. We are still seeing if it's a resistance or a support. But in any case, today's and tomorrow's close are likely to be extremely important. We don't want a re-entry, but if we manage to break it, it will be a signal of major strength. We move on to Tao. So Tao, many of you asked me to analyze it. Initially, as you know, I analyze very few AI projects and avoid making pronouncements on them. For what reason? Simply because AI, the artificial intelligence sector, has performed enormously from 2024 to 2024, throughout the year 2024, and also performed enormously from 2023 to 2024. So, we had two small bull runs within the artificial intelligence sector itself. And as it's a hype, when there's a hype around a sector, once the first bullish waves have occurred, generally the sector in question consolidates and doesn't perform much anymore. And we are seeing that now, since this new pump we had until December 2024, there has been a huge drop of 76%. That's why I told you that the AI sector, if you weren't in it in 2023 and the small rebound in 2024, is no longer necessarily very interesting. It's a bit like the NFT sector, like the metaverse sector. When there's the first bullish wave of a hyped sector, generally if you're not on board, it's better not to get on. That's what's happening. We see since this huge drop here, we have had for 297 days an asset that is completely flat. Huge correction. We are in the buyer reloading zone. So that's worth noting. If we manage to defend this zone and move on, it could be a sign of strength and a return of strength. Okay? On that, there is absolutely no problem. Now, what worries me a bit more is momentum. Momentum, since this strong rebound we had here in September 2024, we have been making lower highs. What does this indicate? Well, it simply indicates that each rebound we've had here on Ta Bitensor are rebounds that have had less and less buying strength. And that's a signal that shows we are running out of steam, that it's already reflected in the price, but especially that for now, we don't yet have the possibility of a real recovery. If we were to break the neutrality zone and make a new high in terms of momentum, returning above these previous ones, then at that point, we would know that we have a lot of buying strength and therefore yes, momentum is returning to this asset. As long as that's not the case, I prefer to leave these assets aside. If we look from a long-short ratio perspective, it's the same for now. Each time we try to return to a zone of buyer dominance, we are rejected. So, for now, sellers largely have the zone. Beware of a fake pump here that would come to hunt liquidity, test the neutrality zone. And if we do as before, well, we would be directly rejected and it would look something like this, and we would come back to hunt all the liquidity. So be careful here with Tao, from my perspective, I prefer to tell you that I am no longer positioning myself, it is absolutely no longer the time, but moreover, I am concretely waiting for confirmations, and for now, we don't have them. Here again, we are in a price compression, we are on this support zone, we have a kind of small trendline that is forming in this way. So we are in a very large compression triangle on the weekly momentum. We are confirming that sellers have regained strength in the movement. So here, in the medium and long term as well, Tao Bitensor is confirming that sellers are currently dominating this asset. I remind you, obviously, because many forget, that Tao Bitensor was traded between 45 dollars and 90 dollars here in August 2023. So all the whales who positioned themselves at this level and even had positions before that are currently on very significant profits. At 700 dollars, we were almost between x10 and x7. So concretely, profit-taking is happening, and that's what's reflected in the price. So remain cautious with this asset. And for those who were wondering if I should have Tao Bitensor in my portfolio. Personally, I prefer not to position myself, at least not now that we are at 314 dollars. It has already had big performances in 2023, it has also had big performances in 2024. So this sector, for me, will likely need time because a sector needs time to develop. Once it has had its first rally, its first euphoria, it needs both time and money to develop and create new infrastructure, create new tools. For now, that's not the case. We are consolidating. That's a bit about Tao for all those who wanted an analysis of THAO. And as usual, I remind you that you have the comment section. If you have an asset you would like me to analyze in the next broadcast, I will do it with pleasure. Now, I will quickly look at the dollar. The dollar, as you can see, is still continuing its bearish movement. After a small liquidity hunt at this level, we are continuing the bearish movement. This could be a very, very good sign. You see, we would have a nice little M at this level that could lead to a continuation of the bearish movement. For that, we would need to re-enter 97.63 points, which is actually the small bullish recovery W as you can see at this level. If we re-enter, then for me, it will be a new low for the dollar. And as you know, if the dollar falls, it will be positive for the crypto market and obviously for safe havens. From a momentum perspective, well, you see, we have retested the neutrality zone and for now, we are witnessing a bearish crossover. So if today and tomorrow, we continue the movement well, it will be a second bearish wave for the dollar and therefore a new low. That will be a very good signal because, as you know, we are currently in a very big M top, this one as you can see at this level, which has a first objective of 94.41 points, but otherwise, we could reach between 91 points and even below 88 points. So the dollar is indeed in a long-term bearish trend, a bearish dynamic as well. But I want to remind you of a very important point, and on which I will conclude this broadcast. The dollar, and I have already spoken about this, has been in a bearish dynamic since February 1985. We see that we have been making lower highs since 1985 and lower lows as well. This means that if we are currently in a continuation of this bearish dynamic, the dollar is starting a major bearish trend that should lead us to an objective between 71 points and 63 points to make a new low below the previous low. So, let me tell you, if this happens, then all the liquidity present in the dollar will seek refuge in safe havens. And so, as usual, there is gold, silver, and obviously Bitcoin and other asset classes. So this is something to watch with an exclamation mark. The dollar, if it is indeed in this bearish dynamic and continues this bearish dynamic, will be very weak. So this is also to be taken into account from an investor's perspective in the crypto market. If you are heavily exposed to stablecoins that are simply pegged to the dollar, then you may need to try to find new stablecoins that are not pegged to the dollar, or be exposed to the market. If you are not on the dollar but are exposed to assets, well obviously an asset that has, for example, Bitcoin which has its pair against the dollar, well if the dollar loses value, it allows Bitcoin to gain value even more easily. So it's very interesting to think that sometimes if a currency loses a lot of value, it's better to be exposed to the market to avoid the dollar's decline. But even more so, it's a bit like shorting the dollar by partially shorting it because you are on an asset that is against the dollar. I hope you understand, it might seem a bit technical, but in any case, when a currency like this declines, it's better to be exposed to the market. So that's it, team, I hope you enjoyed this broadcast. If so, don't hesitate to leave your best like and let me know in the comments. It's always a pleasure. I read absolutely all of them. And as usual, we'll meet again soon in a future broadcast. I wish you all a pleasant day or an pleasant evening. This was Crypto Logic. Bye my [Music]