Transcription
Most people spend their lives thinking only forward, what they want and how to get it. And that's fine if you're aiming for pretty average results. But if you're aiming for something extraordinary, like the top 1%, then you need to think differently because the greatest thinkers in history didn't just think forward, they also thought backward. It's a mental model called inversion. And in this video, I'm going to show you exactly how it works with real examples and practical ways to start using it today.
This model has completely changed the way I think and make decisions, and I hope it can do the same for you. Now, let's bring this model to life with a story.
Part one, the man who saved countless lives. During World War II, the military had a serious problem. Too many planes were getting shot down. To fix it, analysts started studying the planes that made it back from combat. The idea was simple. Figure out where those planes were getting hit, then reinforce those areas with more armor. They examined them closely, recording every bullet hole, every bit of shrapnel damage, and patterns started to emerge. Some areas, like the wings and fuselage, were riddled with bullet holes. Others, like the engines or the cockpit, were almost untouched. So, the logical conclusion was to add more armor to the areas that were getting hit the most.
But then comes a statistician named Abraham Wald, and he sees something everyone else missed. He made an observation. They were only looking at the planes that survived. Think about it. These planes took damage and still made it home. So the bullet holes we're seeing, those hits weren't fatal. But the planes that got hit in the engine or cockpit, they never returned. So the conclusion is actually the opposite of what people assumed. Don't reinforce the places with bullet holes. Reinforce the places with no damage because that's where a hit is fatal. Wald had just applied inversion. Instead of focusing only on the planes that survived, he shifted his attention to the ones that didn't make it back. He looked at the problem from the opposite side. And that simple shift in perspective saved lives. That's the power of inversion.
Part two, the two faces of inversion. We can think about inversion in two simple ways. The first is starting with the end in mind. The second is flipping your goal and thinking about the opposite of what you want. Let's start with the first. This version of inversion is all about solving problems by working backwards. One of the biggest champions of this idea was a German mathematician named Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobe. His strategy was simple. Anytime he faced a tough problem, he'd say, "Invert, always invert." So instead of attacking the problem headon, he'd flip it around and ask, "What would this look like?" in reverse. It's kind of like solving a maze. If you start from the beginning, you'll probably run into dead ends, wrong turns, and wasted time. But if you start at the finish line and work your way backwards, the path gets clearer. There are fewer mistakes and less guessing. So instead of wandering around trying every possible route, you trace a smarter path in reverse and find your way faster.
The second form of inversion is focusing on the opposite of what you want. Now, this doesn't come naturally. Most of us are wired to think about what we do want, but thinking about what you don't want can actually be easier and way more effective. Just like in that World War II story where focusing on the planes that crashed, not just the ones that survived, completely change the outcome. This version of inversion was a favorite of the stoic philosophers. People like Marcus Aurelius and Senica. They had a practice called the premeditation of evils. They'd imagine the worst things that could happen to them. things like, "What if I lost my job?" or "What if I became paralyzed?" or "What if my reputation got destroyed?" It might sound a little pessimistic, but the point wasn't to dwell in fear. It was to prepare, to spot risks ahead of time and avoid them. Most people are obsessed with how to succeed, but the Stoics also thought deeply about how not to fail. And that's exactly what helped them succeed.
Chapter 3, how to use inversion in work in life. Inversion is one of those tools that applies to almost every area of life. For example, most people stay laser focused on how to achieve success. They're constantly looking for the magic strategy, the secret formula, but the so-called answer is often too big, too vague, or just too personal. Ask 10 people, and you'll hear 10 completely different versions. That alone is enough to overwhelm anyone. This is where inversion becomes useful. Instead of chasing down the right answer, you flip the entire question on its head. So rather than trying to figure out how to be successful, you look at what would almost guarantee failure. It's a far easier question to answer. And strangely enough, a far more effective one. Because once you're clear on what leads to failure, you can begin avoiding those things. No need to be a genius. Just stay away from the obvious traps and you give yourself a real shot at building a successful life.
This is exactly how Charlie Mer approached life and business. The legendary investor believed that a huge part of his and Warren Buffett's success came from avoiding dumb decisions, not by being especially brilliant, but by being consistently not stupid. So often the smarter move is to study failure because understanding why people fall short can teach you more than chasing why they succeed. Another effective way to use inversion is something called a failure premortem. Think of it like a premeditation of evils, but for business or any project. You take the most important goal or project you're working on right now. Then you jump forward 6 months and you assume it failed, completely flopped, went down in flames. Now tell the story backwards. What happened? What mistakes did you make? And what blind spots did you miss? You're identifying the exact traps you might fall into before you actually do. In business, this approach is sometimes called the kill the company exercise. You gather the team and everyone brainstorms all the ways the company could fail. You kill the company on paper so you can save it in real life. Just like the Stoics did with life, you do it with your work.
Another powerful way to use inversion is in relationships. You've probably heard the golden rule, treat others how you want to be treated. Sounds nice, but it's actually pretty bad advice because it assumes we're all the same. Same wants, same needs, same preferences. But that's not how people work. For example, just because you like reading doesn't mean giving someone a book is a thoughtful gift for them. Or just because you love constant attention doesn't mean smothering someone with affection will bring you closer. Or just because you like surprise parties doesn't mean someone else won't find them stressful or overwhelming. Sometimes it does the opposite. So instead of starting with what you want, use inversion and flip it. Don't treat others how you don't want to be treated. This thinking is far more effective. Trying to figure out how we want to be treated can be vague, but almost everyone agrees on how they don't want to be treated. We don't want to be lied to. We don't want to be disrespected. We don't want to be constantly criticized. That clarity makes it easier to take action. Once you've identified what causes harm, start removing it. Stop doing what breaks things. That alone can strengthen almost any relationship.
Another effective way to use inversion is with your health. Most people already know what they should do. Exercise regularly, eat clean, sleep well, cut back on stress. But knowing isn't the problem. The hard part is doing, which is why so many people never get around to it. This is where inversion becomes really helpful. Instead of chasing the perfect health routine, you flip the logic and think about the worst things you could do to harm your health and then simply stop doing them or at least do them less. Less smoking, less alcohol, less junk food, less coffee. You get the idea. The same goes for mental health. Think about the times when you felt most anxious or drained. There are always patterns. Sometimes it's something you do, like doom scrolling the news, staying up too late, or saying yes to things you resent. Sometimes it's people, those who leave you worse than they found you. Sometimes it's the work, meaningless, repetitive tasks that slowly wear you down. Inversion helps you see those things clearly. And once you see them, you can start removing them, even gradually. The path to better health, physical or mental, isn't always about doing more. Sometimes it's about doing less of what breaks you.