Transcription
Bitcoin is facing a massive macro shift as global chaos worsens. I think that everybody agrees that the situation in Iran right now is a bit of a quagmire, and that markets hate uncertainty. And we have more uncertainty, seemingly, than ever. In fact, the uncertainty index for the world is at the highest, by many, many multiples, it's ever been in the history of all time. We're going to break down everything that's happening in the macro and what it means, of course, for Bitcoin with Dave, Mike, and James. Let's go.
That's dope. >> Let's go. >> Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Macro Monday, where we, uh, argue about the infinite supply of Bitcoin on a daily basis. I've got Dave and James here so far. Mike's, uh, Mike's like the most popular commodity analyst on the planet. It's like the Super Bowl with a war in Iran right now. So, every time we have a show, he's like, "I just got to jump off for radio for 15 minutes." So, Mike's going to be joining us in a little while, which means it's up to us to do the morning meeting. I guess this is the morning meeting.
>> You know, I, it's too bad because I wonder how he explains how, uh, you know, explains gold and and and what's going on there. But, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll, I'll leave that, I'll leave my poking him until he, until he comes back.
>> You know, >> I mean, this is interesting. Actually, I'm just going to tell you right now. I mentioned this, uh, before. The world uncertainty index here, you know, like, I don't know how to measure this, to be honest. But the world uncertainty index just hit 105,000, the highest level in recorded history. I mean, when you look at CO, it's been dwarfed, and this just keeps going up. I mean, doesn't this single image just kind of tell you everything you need to know about the confusion in markets right now?
I think that's exactly right. I mean, it, like, there are certain things that make sense-ish, you know, it makes sense-ish that gold, uh, and Bitcoin would be going higher. Um, frankly, the absolute levels make no sense. And the reason we know that is the only thing, there's only one thing that's not uncertain. There's only one thing that's not uncertain. And that's that when you do, when there's massive destruction and disruption, governments are going to need to print money to extend the debt that is out in every single, you know, major economy. It's the only thing we know. And so the denominator is going to change. And, and that, as a result, should mean that all other things being equal, that assets that are denominated in dollars or yen or euros are going to be higher in nominal terms. They don't have to do a damn thing. That's the only thing we know, Scott. So then the sole question is, what, what, what do we not know? Well, lots of stuff we don't know, right? We don't know what's going to happen with oil prices. I mean, oil's over, West Texas is over 100. Brent's at 114 right now. But if you listen to various people, uh, who talk about the, the, you know, what the, the importance of the straits and what a protracted closure of the straits would be, it should be at 150 by now, right? That, that's just truth, right? You know that that's what people were saying a week ago. They're saying we'd be at 150 if the straits stay closed and have no prospect of opening. Well, guess what? A week later, the straits are still closed. No prospect of opening. Or at least so we're being told. And so yet oil is more or less where it was last week. And within that, it proves one point, a point that I make and hammer, and every one of our listeners should just tattoo this to the inside of your eyeballs if you're trading. And that is, markets move based upon surprise and what is differing from your expectations. So, if your expectations a week ago were the straits were going to be closed and assets weren't going to move that much because we were waiting to see what happens next, then don't be surprised when assets don't move that much. Right? If on the other hand, you think, "Oh, well, this piece of news that everybody knows is going to make me rich because I'm going to figure it out first." That's how come you overlever and die when you're wrong. And so it's all about what is the difference of what people expect. That's, that's my, my thought this morning.
>> Well, it's something, you know, something that's interesting about all this too is, um, you know, we've talked about quite a bit about how oil prices rising, uh, you know, that's the largest input for every single unit, um, of production and, and, uh, distribution of of any product around the world, right? And, um, that, that in and of itself drives inflation, puts the Fed in a terrible position because now they've got an inflation problem at the same time that, um, you know, you, you possibly going into economic, uh, downturn. And so by raising rates, it doesn't really help the, you know, it's not, you, you don't need to create demand destruction. Oil rising in and of itself is going to create demand destruction. That's, and that's kind of now what we're seeing in the market today is, "Oh, well, this, this conflict is going to be so bad, and the oil prices rising like this is so bad, it's going to create demand destruction around the world." So now you're, you're seeing rates react the other way, saying, "Well, it's got, now we're over the ski tips, that a little bit of rise in, in, uh, energy pricing is bad for prices, but a massive rise and prolonged rise is bad for demand." And that's demand destruction. That's, that's kind of what the market's telling you today. And quite honestly, you know, nobody knows anything. I mean, we, we'll get a new tweet in the next three hours and we'll, and we'll see where, where we're headed. Um, and then we'll get another tweet in five hours and, and we'll be in another direction. So, there's, there's no making sense of it. That's just reality at this point. And if you think that you're a geopolitically, um, you're a geopolitical expert enough to understand what's going on in the straits, I mean, well, God bless you because I, I'm not smart enough.
>> There's not, there's not one of those >> situation so complex. What's that?
>> There's not a person on the planet who can make that claim right now, as you said, because the situation is so fluid. I mean, I don't even want to dive into the politics. And James, I actually want to dive into your newsletter. But, you know, President Trump says, "The US is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran." Right. So,
>> Right. >> Take him at his word. Maybe that's true. Obviously, then Iran says, "We didn't even come to the table in Pakistan." Right? I don't know who's telling the truth. But in the same statement says, you know, "We're going to blow up and completely obliterate all their electricity platforms, oil wells, car island, and possibly all these salization plants if we don't come to a deal." Right? And I think if you look at the evidence separately, it's very unlikely with Iran's demands and our demands that there's a deal to be made in the short term. So, you know, which one of those scenarios, I guess, is more likely. Once again, you can see why the uncertainty index is where it is. But I want to go back to Dave. You, you said obviously that the only thing we know is that they're going to print a hell of a lot more money. I think we all generally agree on that. But interestingly, you know, James, you wrote about this, uh, this weekend. Absolutely. Uh, amazing newsletter. But your, uh, inspired chart here was, you know,
>> I, uh, inspired myself. >> Yeah, you inspired yourself this time. That was great. But Fed fund rate, right? So like, listen, we had the Trump administration pulling out all the stops to try to force Powell's hand to cut rates.
>> Right? >> And our base case pre-war was that once Worsh, first, we didn't even know it would be Worsh, but whoever came in and then that person was named Worsh, would largely be a puppet who would, you know, bend to the will of the administration and would cut rates. Nobody's expecting that anymore. Right? And this isn't the form of money printing maybe that we'd be looking for in a fiscally dominated environment. But it's not going to come from the Fed right now.
>> No. And that's, you know, the, the problem is that one chart right there just shows the flip of of the rates. So that was upside down just two weeks ago. Um, and now you had the Fed come out and kind of blink, uh, and say, "Wait, we, well, not really not blink, uh, they kind of came out and stonewalled and said, we're, we're not going to, we're not going to touch rates and we don't know when we're going to touch them again." And the entire market said, "Oh God, they're worried about oil prices. Oil prices drive, you know, uh, the prices of goods up. So, are they going to raise rates?" And now you've got a, you know, basically a 30-something percent chance of of a rate raise. It's down this morning, but, you know, that's just two weeks it flips. But, okay, that's great. And, and that everybody can get a kind of a sense that, "Oh, well, interest rates going up, that's not great for the e, the economy, right?" But then you've got, just imagine, just imagine being this new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bent. And he was highly critical of Janet Yellen as he was coming into office, as was I and other people, that she didn't term out the debt. And what, what do I mean by that? What I mean is she had a chance to take, uh, the, the all this debt that was maturing while she was the Treasury Secretary and term it out, meaning issue longer and longer dated debt, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year debt and lock in basically zero, just a, a one or two percent rates for 10, 20, 30 years. And did she do that? No, she, she issued T-bills. And then so you say, and, and right after the historic almost $6 trillion of printing that they did, which was going to obviously cause inflation, you'd say, "Well, they didn't know that." And, you know, she didn't know that that was going to happen when they printed the money. And the answer is, yes, she did. She was, she was the chair of the Fed herself. She knows how this all works. You know, it wasn't like, "Oh, well, you know, you're gonna be a, a backseat driver here, and, you know, all that." What's that?
>> My 11-year-old knows how that works. She came home one day from school. She was like, "They give us these bucks at school that are for rewards for things, but they just keep making more of them and giving to us."
>> Right? So, they're not worth anything, right? So, you need more of them to get anything you want. You need more stickers to get the, the, you know, the extra snack at at, uh, you know, playtime. But they, so, but the thing is, and here's, here's where Scott then comes into office. They had been lowering rates, right? Like started lowering rates right at the election. And then he, he's like, "Well, we're gonna, we're gonna term out this debt like Janet should have." But he hasn't gotten the chance because rates have stayed above, uh, you know, the, the long term has stayed basically above 4% this whole time. And now it's, it's creeping back toward 5%. And if you're Scott Bent, watching all this, what are you thinking? You're like, "This is impossible." How, I mean, I'm not, I mean, I've got not just the, then you've got the wall of of debt that's coming that's that's maturing this year. So, I've got a little chart there if you want to bring that back up, Scott.
>> Um, >> And if you've got the the paid version up, but >> you know, there's a wall of debt that is coming due. Okay. Just, it's the next chart, I think. Yep.
>> And, and so it's 9.7 trillion right there. It's $9.7 trillion that that is maturing this year in US treasuries. And that's, you know, that's, that's the, that doesn't include intragovernmental treasuries. So this is just the, uh, US public side. This is showing you about 30 trillion dollars of debt, but there's nine trillion more that doesn't show up on in in these, uh, charts. But so that's coming due. And then on top of it, don't forget, because we're so good at managing money here in the United States, that we also have a $2 trillion deficit that we're running on top of this. Plus, you've got the debt that's coming due next year, 2027. So when you add, just looking at this year alone though, with Trump wanting to spend another looks like $5 or $600 billion on, uh, defense this year, you're talking about a total of 12 trillion dollars that they have to refinance this year. 12 trillion.
>> And >> at this point. Yeah. And, and so you're now you're talking about with, with every half a percent of rise in interest rates, you're talking about a hundred billion dollars more of interest that you're going to be paying on this debt. I mean, this is just, it's a problem that's not going away. This is why, uh, you know, Lynn Alden posts almost weekly that nothing stops this train. Like this is like, there is, please, if you have some, if you can figure it out and you tell, you tell me how we're going to stop this, throw it in the comments here and, and let's give Scott some ideas because I don't have any. There's >> debt is a public good. You know, the modern monetary theories, that's not really a debt to anyone. So, you know, it's a public running. Yeah, it's, it's fine. You're going to get >> but getting to your point of the of the, you know, the extra stickers at at playtime, where, what do you do now? You've got, you've got this debt that if, if you do, if we do have prolonged high rates, what, what is the answer? The answer is obvious. It's where everybody's been talking about this in Japan for decades. You know, they've been doing this. It, go, every, we're, we're turning Japanese, meaning we're going to yield curve control. And it's not an, it's not an if. It's just a matter of when and how, how they do it and how obvious it is. What acronym do they put on it? You know, what, what fancy title do they put on it? But they're going to be out there buying bonds to keep that loan rate from going higher. Yeah, that's, that's our look at, look at the annual interest payments. That's because, you know, Janet didn't turn out, turn out the debt and we're running deficits on top of it. It's not all her fault, but we're running. So, remember, the Treasury's just doing the bit of of our, um, you know, defunct Congress. But that's, that's where we are. So, is this doom and gloom? No. This is telling you exactly what we've been saying all along is that you better own some assets in this. You know, you, you have to own things like gold and Bitcoin that can't just be printed and inflated away. You know, you've got to, you've got to own something that, and you don't want to be holding long-term. You don't want to be holding long-term treasuries because you're gonna lose on that, you know, on that trade on a negative real return.
>> Guys, I found it. >> Yeah. Let's see. >> Seriously. Senator Warren. >> Oh, there it is. Yeah, that's the rich people. >> More than 50 members of Congress are joining me. Uh, it's time for the government to start working for American families, not just the ultra-rich. I mean, it's just pennies, guys.
>> Just pennies. >> It is. All I could say, Scott, is everyone should go reread or read Atlas Shrugged.
>> And when you read that book and you understand, and for those who who have never read it, uh, it's, it's a Rand's tour de force. Effectively, it's, it's about a world. Head better if we're being real. But yeah, I think >> Well, but I mean, it, but as a novel, yeah, but Atlas Shrugged is the kind of thing that makes you angry when you're reading it because you see, and it's obvious that people like Elizabeth Warren, although in the book the character is called Wesley Mooch, but it could literally be Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and AOC. They, they would literally be in the book. And she chronicles how their constant stupidity, uh, you, re, effectively destroys innovation, destroys the the people who were making the economic output, and the country completely falls into total disrepair. And, you know, of course, in that book, there's this thing called Galt's Gulch where all the the smart people move. The modern-day Gulch is, or, you know, is that people move to other places and, or potentially use Bitcoin and, or whatever. But, you know, it is, it is amazing how you could be as dumb as Elizabeth Warren's policy proposal. So let's just understand that. Just do the math.
>> It never passed anyways. >> No, it'll never pass and it's not constitutional. But it doesn't matter. The fact that a set, that the the person who literally was the most important person in the previous administration in the, the con, conduct of economic policy is proposing to tax 2% a year on, you know, pretty much any business because $50 million is any business, right? You know, do, do you understand that in the first of all, bring that, bring that back up. Business. It's your wealth.
>> It's a wealth. It's a share of wealth. >> On every penny you own over 50 million.
>> That's what I'm saying. So any, any family business >> will be, you know, any business all of a sudden you're going to be selling 2% of your holdings every single year. Who's going to buy it? What happens? Do is people start c you know, creating and taking risks.
>> All you have to do is is start to understand, first of all, every time a wealth tax has been tried, it has failed. But all you have to do is start doing is math. In a decade, and she talks about making, settling this money over a decade, do because of compounding, it's actually more than 20%.
>> Taking 20% of the wealth of people will effectively bring that wealth down dramatically. Most economic models have it as more than double the impact. You're talking about a 40% catastrophic loss of GDP. That, that I mean, the numbers are just historically bad. And by the way, the amount of money that she's talking about isn't enough to even, even in 10 years of, it doesn't close one full year of budget. I mean, it's just, it, the numbers are just stupid. And yet she publishes it and, and it's relying upon people being >> Let's like, look, it's all performative. Like all this stuff is just like, you, the stuff that's coming out of DC now, you can't listen to anything anymore. It's just all, it's just all a big, you know, show. And like, it's, there's no, there's no truth that comes out of DC anymore. Like, there's just none.
>> It is, and it's all because, and, and now, and that's before AI is dominating everybody's life and how they consume news. So, you're going to have AI channels effectively. I, I think that, you know, the, the, the movie Idiocracy, I mean, I always thought it was a funny movie. I never thought it was meant to be a documentary, but it certainly feels like it. And it, it, you know, the average human is just not thinking for themselves and they're, they're, you know, they'll, they'll accept things at face value. And that is enormously problematic if you think about it. What does that mean? You know, like, it's like the dumbest. And, and the politicians used to be constrained. Like the thought that the Democrats could say that the SAVE Act is bad. This is the political voting act. And because, but we agree with with voter ID, but we don't agree with that. And then there was a vote on an amendment and they're going to do another one where they all voted against just nothing else other than pure voter ID.
>> Yeah. And, and expect that that, and know, and not just expect, but know that the people who vote for them won't hold them accountable. The fact that that Trump could say to to help Scott out here because I know it's, this has been a big thing. No new wars. And he goes to war and he expects no one will hold him accountable. Our politicians don't think that people care anymore about what they do because there's an echo chamber among their voters.
>> And it's Yeah, but David, it just becomes tribal. You know, you've got this very strong, uh, left >> support, and you got the very strong right support, and it just becomes tribal. Doesn't matter what your team says, they're going to be they're going to be right, and I don't care. And I'm used to nonsensical stuff about the voter ID. Like, it's just, it's not truth. They know it's not truth, but they don't, they can't even. All they care is that their team wins. It doesn't matter. And that's where we are now. And that's, so we just have to, we have to take DC at performative value, not face value. It's just, it's an act. They're up on stage. They're waving their arms around. And so this idiocy that comes out of, you know, um, Warren's office, that they post this thing about, "Let's tax people's wealth." Like, it's just, it's gonna, it's going to get her votes, and that's all she cares about. It's just going to get her votes.
>> She had all these ideas, right? We have the California billionaire tax. She basically saw that and saw how much press it got and just ran with it. But we've also had, I mean, even Yellen >> in the last administration was floating unrealized capital gains, right? Which is >> What, what it comes down to, what it comes down to, Scott, is that >> they all understand that we have a K-shaped economy. That people are really upset that the billionaires and millionaires are they're running this economy because they're the ones spending 80% of of, you know, services and goods. And, you know, the top 10% whatever that crazy statistic was, the top 10 percenters are are spending like two-thirds or more of whatever. People feel that they see it. They're like, "All the prices are going up because the boomers and they have all the money and all, and they're frustrated and they want, they want theirs." And they, so they're like, they are playing on that simple concept that, you know, the economy is is K-shaped. You've got super wealthy people are doing very well. You've got, uh, you know, the middle class and lower class demographics that are not doing well. And why is that? It's because of everything we just talked about at the beginning of the show. It's about the Cantillon effect. It's about, you know, people. So, I have people calling me this weekend asking, you know, they're not, uh, in finance, not investing. They're like, "How do I get into these new IPOs? I want to get into SpaceX and everything." It's like, you don't understand. Like, you are the exit liquidity. Like, the, the, the gains have already been made, and they're going to then package it up and sell it to the street. That doesn't mean that these things can't go up in the market because of irrational exuberance, but there, like, the, the Cantillon effect is real. If you're close to the spigot, you're getting the benefit of that, and they, and people inherently know that. And so they're never going to admit that. They're just going to do this more. They're going to have this act on stage, and they're going to do, do the per, you know, the performative stuff. They're going to say, "We need to tax the rich. We need to tax the rich." Oh, it's not because of the Fed and Congress overspending and fiscal stim, and fiscal dominance, and fiscal stimulus. It's not because of that. It's because rich people bad.
>> Yeah. The trickle-down economics don't actually work. We've known that for a very, very long time. Dave, I'm surprised you haven't done this yet.
>> I mean, it's true. I mean, look, trickle-down economics does work.
>> Millionaires over here. All they want to do is distract. I mean, I look this weekend, we saw it, right? So what is the ultimate irony? The ultimate irony of a No Kings protest of 8 million people, many of them, in fact, at most protests, they were all former '60s hippies who protested Vietnam and are trying to relive their glory days. You know, some of the interviews of these people were just, I mean, off the charts funny, but not in, you know, in an ironic sense, because they have absolutely no idea what the hell is going on. But what's the ultimate irony of a No Kings index, a No Kings rally? The No Kings rally is to fight against a government that supposedly is all-powerful and taking away your rights. Yet, what is the policy prescription from the organizers? Is much more government, much less rights.
>> So I posted something that got a little bit of, got people a little bit annoyed, but it's okay. It's true. I said, I, I, I wonder what percentage of the people that know Kings Rally would willingly vote for Obama to be president for life.
>> And I'm betting that number is very high. And the irony is just is incredible. People say they want X, but they don't want X, they want Y. What do they want? They basically want a return to normalcy in in an uncertain world. And, and what is normal about a world, especially if you're, if you're older, where everything is being done by computers, right? Everything is being done by agents. You're being told, you don't read a novel anymore. You go on AI and say, "What does, what, what is the point of Slaughterhouse 5?" Instead of reading Slaughterhouse 5 and and experiencing Vonnegut, you know, it's like that is what our society's coming to. And when you do that, then the people who control the AI are the ones who are going to control how you think. And so if you want to understand how important you know it is that that that AI is not dominated and controlled by a few key voices, you, you end up, and, and you also understand that it's almost certain to happen. It, it is extremely dangerous because, you know, rallying against, if, if this was a rally against, we shouldn't go to war. Okay, I could get that. But then you get the flags that are out there are hammer and sickle flags, literally, and K flags, and pro, and, and the, the one cath wearing, and, and Iran flags. I mean, you know, you're really supporting >> but yeah, it's just like this. Yeah, I mean, people don't want to think for themselves. They just want to be told what to support. In my bio today, you know, it's a, it's just >> Yeah, I mean, it's virtually >> critical. We have lost the the the art of critical thinking. It's gone. Like we, we, people don't critically think. And a lot of it's due to this. You know, they're just told what to think all day long. We are not meant to take in that much information and synthesize it all day, every day. I'll tell you the biggest challenge as an investor now, and this actually is something important for all of us. The biggest challenge for me every single day is to look at all the news and everything that I'm getting, but just bombarded with, and to filter out the noise. It used to be pretty easy. You walk in, you have your Bloomberg terminal, you see what the headlines are, you can filter out what's noise and what's not, and you can get to work. Now, >> Tom Brokaw told you 30 minutes a day, and you didn't have 24/7, 365 access to quote unquote breaking news.
>> Right? You're not supposed to have that 24/7. Like, and like every 10 minutes is something new. Like every three minutes is something new that something big, you know? It's like, but most of it's noise. Like, if you're an investor, and you could just, what, what the most important thing to do is to filter out the noise and get the first principle on everything. You know, that's, and that's difficult, more difficult today than it's ever been in my opinion as an investor. But >> Yeah, I can't, I can't wait till Mike gets here so that we can talk about oil, but I think we should probably, uh, well, there's so many, uh, things we could go through. Uh, there's a lot of, actually, just like continuing to see negative news across any metric that you could look for that should be giving us signals of things being bad, but markets aren't even down that bad. I don't know if you guys saw this one breaking. UBS has stopped withdrawals from its nearly $500 million real estate fund for up to three years. So this is real estate. Uh, Blue, BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, UBS, most of those being private credit funds, obviously. I mean, >> The new boogeyman. Can't tell because, yeah, >> they're just going to continue to try to, you know, um, allow the gates to work the way they're supposed to, um, which is to to protect, uh, a run on the bank, you know, and force them to sell illiquid assets. But then I wrote all about that and the the matchup and the mismatch in some of these funds of the duration of the fund and the duration of the investment. But, you know, the problem is they keep upping these investments and, and, um, pushing back out further because they, you know, they're, they're not liquid yet. And they want to, uh, they're, they're, they're creating, uh, I, I don't want to say false, but they're, they're creating creative, uh, you know, marks on these things to make sure that they don't trip covenants. They can just keep going, keep kicking it down the road and hope that it works out. So, but that's, we're going to continue to see that. But, um, that's not something that worries me as much as what's going on in Iran and the whole energy issue we have here. That is so complex and volatile that that worries me more than than private credit right now, by far.
>> Yeah. I mean, US government officials and Wall Street analysts were starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might spare to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.
>> Welcome. >> Talk about demand destruction. I mean, that, that'll be it right there.
>> Yeah. Hey. Hey. So, Mike, so why is oil not at 150?
>> There you go. Here's one example. US natural gas, the number one measure of heat, electricity, and fertilizer in this country, is down 22% in the year. In January, it was up 100%. It did the same thing in 2022. Spiked to 10, and by 2023, it was down to two. It's exactly what happened in in energy. It rinse and repeat. And I think the key theme is crude oil. All commodities are their own worst enemies. We learned that in cryptos when they go up too much. Crude oil specifically, it'll bring on global recessions, pump up that supply, curtail demand, and rinse and repeat and go over. And you're seeing that industrial metals like copper made a new low in the year recently. Silver peaked from a decent high, up 63%. It's all tilting over, and crude oil is just bringing things down. So I look at it going forward, skating to where the puck is going. Just look at that December crude oil futures is actually ticking down on the day for a little while. It's $77 a barrel. It has to ride a significant wall to get to 100 by the midterms, which is will be front month right before the midterms, and going back down to 50 is normal. What does Mr. Trump need? I think you know that front crude, the crude contract you see right now at 101, by the time we get the midterms, is more likely to be 50. And that's just looking forward to where the puck's going.
>> So $200 oil, or we now in the realm of hyperbole?
>> So I'm glad you went there, Scott. Remember $200,000 Bitcoin a year ago, and remember 7 to 10,000 gold just a few months ago. I've been in calls last week. I just saw one from Aquaria this morning. Look for $200 crude oil. Like, yeah, that could happen in the short term if you want a global depression, which would mean severe deflationary forces. It always starts with inflation and deflation, but that's peak signs when you see that. Like I said, we saw it in cryptos last year. We saw it in gold, just in silver, just a few months ago, and now we're seeing a crude oil. It's crude oil's turn. But that pump then pump then dump trend is consistent. Like I mentioned, natural gas was up 100%, now it's down. Copper was up 15%, now it's down. Silver was up 63%, now it's down. Bitcoin was up 10% or so. Now it's down. You see the trend. By the end of the year, to me, this stuff's just getting started. I mean, I, okay. So, so let's, let's unpack. We have a geopolitical situation where we can't get oil from the places that produce it to the places that want it. We got that. That understand that is that is the core problem. The, we got people at the Fed. We got 20,000 of them. That could be replaced by a bunch of monkeys smacking smacking on keyboards and throwing darts, uh, in terms of economic forecasting. Okay, that's something we kind of know. Uh, something the administration sort of knows as well. Uh, we'll see whether the Senate will be able to approve a new Federal Reserve chair, and I think the market thinks that they won't. And that's one of the reasons why the dot plot is the way that it is. No one's talking about it. But the truth is is Thoon's going to have to grow a pair of balls, and they may end up having to use a recess appointment the first time. And they've basically been blocking for people who are paying attention don't understand how bad it is in DC. They have, there, there are, there's an enormous number of unappointed, uh, people throughout the administration, and this is the first time in decades that the Senate hasn't allowed recess appointments to go through. Uh, and so, you know, frankly, Thun, I can't believe he's still the leader. You know, I, I, publicly, I cannot imagine how he, he has kept his job doing that. I mean, forget all the other stuff. I mean, I'm not talking about the legislative stuff. I mean, legislative stuff, there's, as as James said earlier, it's performative theater. So, the real question is, are we going to get a new Federal Reserve chair? That, that's a real actual question. At the same time, we have the Federal Reserve making the, I mean, they're, they would fail if I were teaching an economics class. The notion >> Before, before you continue, Dave, it was interesting that Powell said himself, he will stay on as long as he needs to.
>> I, I, I heard that. >> Why would he say, "I will stay on as long as I need to," unless your term is up? Like, why would you say that? He's saying it because they know that the Democrats are likely to block. He's been told that they're likely to block Worsh or anyone else that Trump appoints. So, in order to keep the keep the government frozen.
>> How does that work though? I mean, if you're done, you have to have someone in the job. You >> The Federal Reserve is, there's no accountability of the Federal Reserve. It's a private freaking corporation that the only thing that that in a properly functioning government they can do is nominate and/or replace the head. There is very little accountability in the Fed. The only good news about this is if it does play out the way it was, way it looks, the calls for ending the Fed and restructuring the Fed will get much, much bigger because, you know, but, but then again, people are going to be told by their favorite AI or news media, uh, not to care because everything's okay here. So, you know, it's, it's sort of like that, that meme with the dog in the fire, you know, it's like, don't worry about it. Everything is fine. But the point that I was making is, as long as the Federal Reserve has this notion that an oil shock means inflation and they, and inflation, oh, must pull rate hike lever, uh, you know, which is is dumb, uh, you'll get double demand destruction. And that would ensure, uh, an absolute, if you think that inflation is bad for the midterms, what's inflation with a misery index that spikes because we decide to raise rates and hike unemployment? I mean, the, the honest truth is, we know what that means. I, I'm not saying that's what's going on. I'm saying that that is, there are people talking about that's what we should do. And that's, and that is that is absolutely important. The, the fact that oil price rises going up is bad for the economy. It is bad for demand destruction. It causes, uh, inflation in pass-throughs of goods, but it doesn't cause people to demand higher wages when their companies have lower profit margins. Well, they can demand it, but they won't get it. Right? In order to get wage inflation, you need to have the ability to pay the wage inflation, right? And, and that's not very good right now. Right now, what happens when you demand higher wages is you get replaced by AI, right? So, it's, it's, it's very interesting, and it's a totally different dynamic than in the '70s. But the reason that I went on this rant was because, you know, look, the notion that all these markets are interconnected. I, I, look, I think we should pull on the string. I, I, I joke when I heard you weren't going to be here that I really want to ask you about gold because I, I told you my view on gold is that equilibrium is 5,000. My view is that 4,500 will turn into support. It's going to stay around these range. Your view was that all these assets are going to roll over and gold made a multi-decade high or whatever it was. Uh, I'm curious what you think now. Do you think that that there's enough that there's fundamental strength there, or do you think that that it's still likely to roll over and go back towards 3,000?
>> Yeah, it's over. The rally to me, similar. Um, so I'll put it in context. I think the significant rally we had in Bitcoin for over a decade is over. I think the significant rally we had in metals, which I've been on top of forever, is over. And it's going to, they're going to languish forever. Particularly gold, it's going to languish between 3,000 and 5,000 potentially for a decade. That's just the way it always does. It got so extreme, so severe. Um, I just look at it versus a basket of US treasuries just a few months ago. It was gold was the highest since 1982. US treasuries are lowest. That's my bias towards treasury. It's just getting started. So, and then, then you look at other things like you have to go back. Oh, historically, you take the S&P 500 total return divided by gold. It always goes up, except it stopped going up since 1997 because gold took off. That's just too long. I mean, it's a stupid rock, and I, I hate the rock. I loved it when it was going up, but now it's time to say, "Yeah, it's done." That, that rally is done. And the, the, the calls and the questions. I love it. It's the questions I get. It was in February. Usually you get a ding. I remember there was a few, um, few crypto chats I were I was on last year. I'm like, "Yeah, everybody was so bullish." I'm like, "Okay, so I just remember these things." I was on a, a gold webinar in Hong Kong, um, in February. Same thing. It was just so bullish, like sold to you. Um, but it's also the extremes that happened in gold. Remember gold warned us last year was the best year since 1979. Best year ever absent inflation. Um, so it warned us what was happening. It's done its duty. It, it served its purpose as a safe haven store value. But now what's happened? 180-day vol in gold has shifted to 2.5 times the S&P 500, maybe 2.4 times. That only happens a few times in history. When it does it, it shifts over to a highly speculative risk asset, puts in a PE. That's what we've done. So, something might have to change. But here's a key theme to think about forward as we get to midterms. Um, it's a scenario. I, I don't see what helps, what stops. It's all about getting to midterms and what's happening in the Gulf. Obviously, if the Gulf stays closed and this gets worse and we hear, get up in the morning, hear the word fallout or something, yes, that's good for gold. But gold already priced a lot of that in. It's just what normally happens. This thing should be cleaned up, at least worked out, and then we rinse and repeat. And there's really no reason for gold anymore. And to me, the key thing now is the problem with the stock market. All that volatility in gold, which was just, look at one key fact. 60-day volatility in gold this year was up about 60 to 70%. 60-day volatility on the on on crude oil is up about 150%. 60-day volatility on the S&P 500's flat. That's my problem. Everything's trickle load, trickling over. And if the stock market goes down, everything goes over, and that's down. To me, Bitcoin warned us. So, let's just forget Bitcoin for a heartbeat. Just talk about the stock market.
>> Most people when they invest in the stock market are, we're not talking about trading now, but most people when they invest in the stock market are looking at forward PEs and growth rates over years, if not longer. And most people who invest in the stock market look at this and look at what's going on in the Gulf and look at all this stuff and say, "Okay, well, we don't know what's going to happen at the other end." So, but is this really going to affect multiple years of earnings of most of our companies? And what are the, what are the expectations and how much are moving? And when you look at the S&P and you look at analysts, I mean, you have the data. Uh, I'm going to bet that analysts, uh, forward expectation of earnings haven't really moved very much. And if that's the case, then why should the volatility in the S&P be high? The volatility on oil is high because people have no freaking clue whether, you know, where it's going to come from, how it's going to get where it needs to go. I understand that. Volatility on gold is really high because we have, uh, we've had central bank buying and we've had private wealth buying, and a lot of that private wealth now needs to get more liquid, and so there's a whole, the whole wall of selling that occurred as people tried to reliquify. So we kind of understand, you know, where the volatility is coming from in the commodities. You know, leave Bitcoin and, and out of it because Bitcoin's volatility has been, I mean, I don't know. I, I, it's been lurching into a range and then staying in a range, and we're still at the same price that, you know, if we talked about Bitcoin price, I think the last three weeks we've been within $1,000 of of, you know, every week, you know, of where it is during the show. You know, it's, it just hasn't really moved all that much. But, but gold is moving a lot more. And, you know, look, I think you're right. I think that there's a ton of complacency in the market in the stock market, but until analysts and people start making major changes, uh, you know, it's really about the new shiny object. If you want to know what I think pops the, the creates the volatility in the stock market, it's if, if there, if the wave of IPOs, which won't happen, by the way, if the, if the straits are still closed, but if the wave of IPOs materializes and you have multiple trillion dollars of new companies coming in, that money has to come from old companies. And we saw this pretty much every time an IPO wave crests, uh, is generally a market top. I >> mean, we've seen this many, many times before.
>> So, yeah, I mean, I, I, I'm just curious. I mean, you know, what do you think about that? I mean, you know, SpaceX is is a very interesting one for a lot of reasons, but it's not just them. It's XAI, it's, uh, obviously, um, Anthropic, it's OpenAI, you know, these
These are four monster IPOs. They're not small.
I don't think anybody's gonna come for those. What do you say, Scott?
Yeah, I agree. I mean, those are top. I would argue that a high percentage chance that those are at least temporary market tops for quite a while when those.
Yeah. Well, I I I there's a high percentage chance they don't actually happen this year because things people don't IPO and and and go on road shows and go for going AC around the world looking to private wealth funds, uh, when the world's at war, it just doesn't tend to happen.
So, you know what's interesting though, something something that's interesting though is that Mike, what you said about gold. Look, we do have to recognize that that gold, it did bottom out for for at least the moment, about 27% off its highs. You know, it was up at 5600, came all the way down to 4,100. So that's a pretty big move, you know, and so that's not something that is uh to to just dismiss. That's number one. Number two is look, I if you believe that gold is going to go back to what did you say, 2500, 3000, some somewhere around there?
3000.
Okay. Well, you know, you're talking about then it it's going to be down, you know, roughly 30% from here. that you're assuming then over the next 10 years, then it will not react to either we will not be printing money or it will not react to it. Right? So I don't and I so that's where I just can't reconcile that. I can't reconcile we're not going to print or it's not going to react to it.
So, um, you're telling me it's different this time. That?
I'm not saying it's different this time. I'm saying that it's going to be, you know, we will print. What I'm saying is that we've done this now twice in a row and we're What do you think is going to happen the third time when we have a recession?
Like I I said, like for gold to stay up here, it has to be different this time. Never in the history of gold has it rally at such a velocity, get the most expensive versus commodities, get the most expensive versus most other indices and and other entities and stay up. It just doesn't happen. It's got to have a good reason and versus itself. Um, and what you say about the print. Yeah, I get it. We all It's those are known knowns. We all get the print. The big print. We had the big print in 2020. Let me point out that's when Bitcoin's outperformance stopped. I keep pointing that out. It's over. The big prints happened. Now we might get a big print like we did in China. And what where's what's happened in China? 1.81 is their 10% their 10 year old deal. That's where we're going in this country. The bottom line is for any risk asset, all of them. I kept pointing this last year when people saying how bullish they were copper. I'm like, okay, so you're bullish the stock market. Like if it's the same chart now, even gold, it's the same chart as the stock market and that's my point is you have to be bullish in the stock market and just to I get what Dave says, but that's all stuff that we all know known is the bottom line is when you get a trigger like this, this is a we had a world that was very much we first consumer sentiment was already getting hammered before this event happened. We had a world facing unprecedented tariffs in the US and pretty significant deflation from China because China couldn't export as much the US and more so exporting the rest of the world, mostly Europe. Oh, by the way, there's an oxymoron of them supporting a war in their cuffs background backyard. Now we have this flip this switch and we had all the signals there. We have a switch to cut off consumer sentiment to say, hey honey, we're going to stop spending for a while and by the way, AI might be taking my job and the key theme I think we'll be thinking about is look a few months from now, what's the data from now going to look like? Even if we wake up tomorrow and the hormous is closed right away, that means crude oil goes to 50, bond tenure note yields drop below 4%. Yeah, stock market rallies and then re rinse and repeat re and roll over and say, "Oh, we've had a spike in energy. We've had a spike in food costs. We've had major con flip in consumer sentiment. This is the trigger. This is 9/11, 2008, and 2022 all in one. And the stock market's most expensive in history." So to me, this is just getting started. And Bitcoin and gold warned us.
Just for clarification, you say that they're the same chart. Uh, and I think there's an argument for that. But, you know, the stocks are down, what, S&P 9 to 10%? I think from all-time high. Gold's down 25%. That would imply that gold is high beta to the stock market.
When? So it's a simple rule of and Dave can show this. When you have an asset that trades 2.5 times beta, when beta goes down, typically high volatility assets go down more. That's the problem with gold now. It's switched. The answers have changed.
Right. That's my point. It did. It did. So that's what it did. That's why last year was a shocker. Obviously, some of us were bullish gold. I never expected to perform that well. It was wonderful to just hang on and and lay out and watch it happen. But now that has happened, markets mean things. They do things and they tell us stuff. It told us what was happening. That's it makes sense now. But the thing is, it's made its run. It front run front ran this. It's done. It just it's it's it's already had its store value warning rally. in history says when it gets this expensive versus any kind of moving ma average long-term, you're supposed to take profits and um, so that's my focus. It's still gold. I think is peaked. Me just, you know, remember, of course, I got beat up on a lot of that for Bitcoin last year. I love getting beat up on these things because I if everybody agrees, I'm usually wrong and that's the key thing. When I was on a call last week and people were calling to my call, some internal for 200 crude oil and and $8 gasoline US, I'm like, okay, that's a global depression, which means gas will eventually go drop down to two bucks. It's just the way things work.
Well, there there's it's true, uh, because of the the price elasticity and the the technological advances that allow us to extract, sorry, I'm staring at the at the visual capitalist global government debt hits 111 trillion in 2025 and it's accelerating again. Now, uh, I I just have an enormous problem with analysis that ignores the fact that that the US government, you know, deficit went from under 5 trillion to pushing 40 this year and thinking that that has no impact upon assets that are denominated in dollars. I I just can't do I I can't I I you need to normalize those things. And if you think eight, so if you take gold going back to wherever and say 8% growth in, you know, is is baked in the cake for an ass literally, that's what you think, then it's a question of baseline. So you do the math and you say, okay, uh, gold peaked at 1900 and went back down to 1100, that it did do that 100. So and and we've all seen it. Gold is one of those those assets that its volatility is, um, what's the word I'm looking for? Is volatile, I guess is probably it's it the volatility of its volatility is very high. Gold could be a very lowv asset for a very long period of time and then immediately change as people start start moving into it. It's been a manipulated market for years. I is if you listen to Gada and the World Gold Council and I think there's a lot of a lot to what they say. And so I I look at gold and and it's really a question of just as a devisor of of monetary policy. If you take technological ability to impact purchasing power out, gold is more or less where it should be. It's not far off of it. And it was way cheap before that because and there were a lot of people who would have said that, you know, it's probably the only thing I agree with Peter Schiff about.
I mean, everybody was sitting all of us on this show multiple times when gold was 2000 or just around 2000. We said, you know, it breaks 2000, it's going right to 3000.
Uh, I and I said I thought that that where it where its value is is is much higher, but whether it will be allowed to get there is the question. It's just they they lost the ability to do anything about it. And part of it is is not that they lost the ability, is that they realized people don't really give a crap. I mean, Alan Greenspan used to obsess over the price of gold when he was setting monetary policy. Jerome Powell couldn't give a rat's ass.
No.
It's not even on the radar.
And that's a big difference.
We keep talking about oil, but I mean, you see these headlines, right? Obviously, this was a little while ago, but Trump draws bipartisan backlash for easing oil sanctions on Russia and Iran. Kind of the uh antithesis of the intended effect, I would say. I don't know if you guys just saw this. Trump administration waves gasoline regulations to address surging fuel prices. Now you can get uh crappier gasoline at the pump.
Yeah. What regulation was that? I'm curious.
Uh, E15 restricted in about half the US during the summer months due to regulations to prevent air pollution.
So I it's it's you got to we got to address this. This is a key thing. I've been at a few agriculture conferences in the last few months. The number one thing is there's a glut. We have a massive supply of soybeans out of um Brazil. They haven't stopped. They another record 180 million metric tons pushing the US out of the market. We have a pretty significant oversupply of corn in this country. Another good crop. It's just caused super abundance. And there's two potential things we can do in the US to get prices higher. Number one, a drought you can't predict. Maybe exports, which are kind of tough, and biofuels. So that's the shift. E15 is part of that shift to more and more biofuels. 15% of our unleaded gas now is coming from almost 15% from from ethanol. We're exporting a lot of it. We got a surplus out it. In the past, typically it took maybe one bushel of corn for one gall two gallons of ethanol. Now we get three. It said it said technology that Dave pointed out. So there's one solution there that by switching to biofuels, we're going to add that glut of crude oil liquid fuels in this country. Right now with Canada, we have a surplus running near a surplus of 8 million barrels a day of crude oil and liquid fuels. Just a few years ago, that was a deficit. What's just happened? Price spiked. re rinse and repeat, increase that surplus. That's what's happening in North America, the Western Hemisphere, and the whole space has become a massive surplus. Yes, there's this pretty significant cut, you know, in in the Middle East, but all that maybe they say 20% of oil. Okay, maybe it ends up 10% as we find workarounds. That's China's problem. That's Europe's problem. They're already having problems in North America. We have a glut. Just in terms of you see that in the futures curve. You can go back to in natural gas and corn and soybeans and crude oil. You can go out two to three years and if you're bare if you're worried about inflation, you can buy those futures at zero at cheaper than they are and then front contract. No cost to carry and basically there's no storage cost. That's just why is that? Because the whole market is looking forward. So there's your big trade. If you're right and if crude oil stays up, the problem is the whole market sees this tilting towards a deflation. The problem is look at that futures curve. It's telling you where things are going and we've got a pretty significant supply of energy in this country.
I mean, that's true. We just can't get it. Just the problem is the people who don't have a significant supply can't get it.
That's the issue. I mean, I it it is.
So what does that mean for them? It means it means depression prices spike for them. But from a US-centric standpoint, I mean, Trump's got all the cards in this case.
Yeah. Well, I mean, there's truth there. I mean, look, it's that's probably partially why the markets are holding in the way they are. I mean, you know, it's like we're here again and if you told me, I don't know, before the war started that oil would be, you know, over a 100 and people would be talking about it doubling again and all this other stuff, you know, where would the S&P be? I probably wouldn't have answered, uh, you know, pushing up towards 6,400 and it was at 6,400, you know, a few minutes ago, right? you know, and it's still green on the day if if basically flat. You know, I I I you wouldn't say that, but people are getting it's it's it's the the old expression people getting numb to it. I mean, we've seen this before in wars and these things. People get numb to it and they start saying, "Okay, what's next?" Except for in this case, the the risks are are much larger than most people would have thought. I mean, in previous wars, it was, "Oh, what would happen? Oh my god, if the Straits of Hormuz got closed." But you know what's what they're getting numb to too is President Trump all over CNN this weekend were these anti-king protests. So to me, this is a classic shift and human nature political sentiment with markets at record highs. It's and the signal I got in 2007 was way early and certainly in 2001 when 9/11 hit. But this is all of them combined. And the thing is, it's all about stocks now. They got to stay up or everything goes down. And, you know, cryptos warned us now. Um, gold warned us. And I just say heed the warning. Stay out of the market and stick with treasuries and look for opportunities. I don't think anywhere near we've reached decent discounts yet and markets you should be looking to buy stuff.
Well, I mean, we we disagree in a couple places.
Goldman definitely disagrees with you. Goldman just said that they're seeing signs of capitulation.
Oh, I love it. I I made good money fading them in 200 and seven and eight and 2001.
But but typically it's one analyst at Goldman with respect for the firm. Stocks, Dave. Yeah.
Congratulations.
They're basically saying that they're they they're seeing such heavy short sales uh by hedge funds and uh and just just complete sellouts that that they feel like they're getting to the point of capitulation.
Well, what's let's let's piggyback on that. Right now, we have VIX at 30% and 180-day volatility running around 12%. It's a a fraction of the VIX. So, people are hedging when they should be selling. You know how that works. Hedging can be really difficult, particularly in bare markets. That's the unique thing about Bitcoin. It's been a very orderly bare market, but just hedging. I know a lot of ways to lose money in option strategies and hedging. I've done those.
Yeah.
The one thing I want, you could see this. I don't know if you can see this. Uh.
Yeah, I'm looking.
See, does that come up?
Yeah, come up. There it is. Go ahead.
Yeah, this is this is what they're seeing. They're seeing that, you know, we're we're getting near lows of of the uh the buying versus selling. You know, it's the net buying is is is two and a half times um lower than the the net selling is two and a half times more than the buying. So.
Right, you got to take that back to 2006.
But the point that's fair. 2020, 2020 wasn't something to sniff at. No, it wasn't. But it was it was human created, somewhat artificial, and the stock market cap to GDP has almost doubled since then. I get it. Um, and so good point. I think that's what happens. What's we've been h we've been in a bare market in cryptos for less than a year now. Everybody keeps trying to buy dips. That's what's perfect in bare markets. They don't bottom till people capitulate. I still haven't heard that word yet, you know, um, healthy correction. Partly because I maybe because I people have said it. Maybe that's the first sign of it. You got to hear that. It's just.
This is I obviously I'm calling for a paradigm shift and gold warned us, crypto's warned us and now that crude oil spike and even Dave Dave said this event is unprecedented closure tra straight of homeless. Man, to me, I got a perfect catalyst for things I've been looking for for too long.
Yeah. I I just think that that the people who understand what's going on, the m the the need to continue to pump up financial assets is greater now and it creates even more likelihood of it. You know, as I said, that denominator is what I focused on. I I've said it before, I'm not going to repeat it. It's been every week for the last three or four weeks. I think Bitcoin bottomed to 60. I think we're sitting in this range. Not much is going to happen. 1010 took a ton of leverage out. I haven't heard a damn person I there's not even a squeak of you don't even hear people talking about buy the dips in crypto. Forget Bitcoin, non non-Bitcoin crypto is has been horrendous. I mean, you know, Ethereum if it wasn't for Bitmine uh buying it, who knows where it would be? My guess is around 1000, you know, maybe 800, maybe 600. I don't know. It would be a lot lower.
What if you know Bitcoin?
And and if Micro Strategy wasn't buying Bitcoin, it would probably be at 40 or 50. That's a very big difference, right? You know, one one would be, you know, a significant drop, one I'm talking, you know, literally 50% 60% lower. So, it's it's important. And, you know, we look at uh we we look at this and we have to understand what does this mean? Well, you know, Bitcoin was literally built literally built for for financial crisis and top-heavy manipulated economies, which is exactly what's happening in real time now. Whether or not people will believe it or not is an interesting question. I guess we'll find out. You know, gold is something different. Stock markets are are, you know, with AI are being driven to even more extremes. I mean, this this K-shaped economy stuff is non-trivial. It is real. It is real because we've had three, four decades of policy that has prioritized asset inflation instead of consumer inflation in order to mask what's going on in monetary and fiscal policy. And it's accelerating. And so to expect that that to reverse is hard in nominal terms. In real terms, I think you're right, Mike. That's the difference. It's like I it's it's all the different the difference between you and I is mostly real versus nominal. Like I I look at a day like today and everyone is like, you know, the markets aren't really doing much. The Treasury market, we know and there are a lot of people who said this and I was trying to get James to talk about it before that a line in the sand is four and a half. I think the real line in the sand is five.
But whatever the yield's down eight basis points today.
Well, good news. Oil prices are higher.
And the y but every single market. It's because it's because oil prices have got and and the fear of oil prices staying high has gotten people to the other side, which is which is for Mike's point, which is demand destruction. You know, and and that will ultimately cause everything all prices to collapse and that that's that's the fear there that you're seeing today. So now it's got you've gotten so far that oh now oil is going to be so bad the price of oil is going to be so bad it's going to stress economies out so so uh greatly that you're going to have demand destruction. You know, that's what you're seeing. If that's true, then why not the bonds today unless you think something different, Mike?
Well, the key thing that happened last week is that long bond got up to 5% at the same time WTI crude oil is up on at $100. That's to me key resistance. Crude oil can keep going up and the higher it goes, the more likely it's go down hard, but I'm looking at the long bond still. Yeah, I've been wrong. We lost a lot less than everything else this year, but still think that the long bond's going to be the place to go. I think just like um corn, I expect corn to be more likely at four than five by the year. I expect that long bond by the end there to be more likely at four or lower than at five. Five is a global is a recession lose-lose situation. Four is normal in a normal deflation environment. Simple little thing. 180-day volatility, S&P 500 just recovering from a 10-year low. Not not complicated. what it takes to do that. I'll let you guys figure that out. But to me, the difference between you and me, Dave, is I take the lessons of Charlie D and Market Wizards. All that matters to me is worth that that price on the statement. Whether it's real or not, it's just it's a number on my statement. That's all that matters.
None of those guys lived in a world with 8 to 10% growth in budget deficits in peace time. We they we had a cyclical economy. We had a balanced budget under Clinton, right? You know.
120% plus jet debt to GDP. And that's none of those worlds.
The the um the unfunded liabilities like that. It's mind-blowing how how large these deficits are.
And they're not going in the other direction.
Right? Well, but that that matters, right? You know, it's not this time is different. I hate this time is different. This time is different. No, it's this epoch, this era that we've been in for the last 20 some odd years of deficits exploding to I mean $40 trillion is a huge number. It's actually however not even close to accurate because it's ignoring unfunded liabilities. It's not even.
And if you put the and if you look at the whole thing, I mean, it which makes it probably closer to two tr to to 200 and and that is just those are numbers that are so big that people's minds explode when they think about it.
And so all of that matters. Everything else you're saying, Mike, is true and that's why you expect certain things like like corn. I mean, we produce way more corn than we should. We using it as fuel is idiotic. It's been idiotic. But Iowa being very important to presidential elections, uh, neither party's willing to screw with it.
We're running out of time, but I got to mess with you a little bit there, Dave. Before the invention of the Model T, most of the US farmlands were used for one thing. Transportation fuel for Ford horse feed. Now, we're just switching back a little. It's not idiotic. It's like.
But it's it's that's from Yuval Noah Harari. I think it was 21 Lessons of the 21st Century. One of my favorite authors. But that's a key thing. I love I pointed out in the cornbt because it's the key thing. That's we have to do something. You hear that? for writing checks for farmers not to produce. I used to have one of those farms and I used that for a little while. Or do what farmers want, just find sources demand. And right now, it's just an obvious one.
Well, I think uh we ran out of time. 105. We could have done this forever. Oil now. We just need to call it oil Mondays. We had smelting town hall. Dave, think you know, we need a metal show and an oil show for for us to focus. I think the the.
Rock Monday. It'll be Dumbrock Monday.
Boomer rocks as Mike calls them. Mike, you missed the beginning when we were talking about the global uncertainty index being at all-time highs and I think it's bookmark. We could talk through these things all day. The bottom line is nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow. So, uh, it's just a very hard time I think to handicap what's going to happen to any asset class, uh, much less markets and the economy in general. All right, guys. That's all we got for you today. Thanks to Dave, Mike, and James. Uh, Mike, you're gonna have to stop getting so popular so we can get you for a full hour, man.
It's all about oil.
Yeah, that'll stop. That'll stop.
All right, guys. Dave, I'll see you in about 10 minutes on Crypto Town Hall. Everybody else, we'll see you tomorrow or next week. Bye.
That's dope. That's dope.