Transcription
This trip, it's clear that the United States has softened, and Iran has hardened on some issues. Regarding the wording that Iran negotiated, it was written that ships passing through will not be charged a service fee for the first 60 days. If it goes beyond 60 days, there's a chance they will charge. Thailand will be the number 1, 2, and 3 buyer of oil, and it's in Iran's hands. Israel's role, the attacks into Lebanon, have two levels. The last time it happened, Iran said this was going too far. Iran fired rockets from Iran itself into Israel. The US couldn't even protect its own bases. With the MOU, Israel is the one left out. Diverse products [singing] many for over 70 [music] years and meticulously cared for [singing] always, polite. Professor Teerachai Phunathananubal, former Minister of Finance, today there's a point I'd like the professor to analyze and offer his opinion on. Currently, Iran is still in an unstable situation, especially regarding the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz. I believe the people of the world are concerned. Especially Mr. J.D. Vance, who traveled to Switzerland and opened negotiations last Sunday. I think Iran won't change much, but there might be some bargaining with Lebanon. Professor, Lebanon is something we're not sure if Israel truly wants to withdraw. But at least they're not shooting wildly, causing problems and complications with the negotiations. As someone who follows the situation, Professor, how do you think Iran and the United States will solve the Lebanon issue? Please, Professor.
Ah, regarding the negotiations between the US and Iran, economists worldwide are following and supporting them closely. Because if the negotiations go smoothly, and the Strait of Hormuz opens continuously, it will be good for oil prices, good for LNG prices, good for fertilizer, and good for various raw materials. The problems will start to resolve. Even though it will slow down the global economy more than before, it won't go too deep. Therefore, everyone is very interested. The negotiations, it turned out, the Iranian team suddenly walked out of the negotiation room temporarily, causing concern. Later, they returned and resumed negotiations, and finally, a statement was issued. This document clearly states that this trip, it's clear that the United States has softened, and Iran has hardened on some issues. Let me start with this: even without negotiations for 60 days, the MOU clearly benefits Iran. Here's why: the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously debated as international waters, where no one had the right to control or collect revenue from it because it has always been open. The MOU clearly states that the entity with the authority to control it is Iran, jointly with Oman, on both sides of the strait. Therefore, for Iran, this is a big win. Even without 60 days of negotiation, even if the negotiations go beyond 60 days and are canceled, this is stamped on Iran's passport that they have the right to control the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the wording that Iran negotiated states that ships passing through will not be charged a service fee for the first 60 days. Writing it this way implies that if it goes beyond 60 days, there's a chance they will charge. I think it implies that Iran can charge. Therefore, this will be a long-term revenue source. After the MOU, Iran established what they call the Persian Gulf Straight Authority, an organization to oversee and regulate the movement of ships through there. They immediately issued a notice. Simply put, ships wishing to pass must submit a permit request with various details 48 hours before it is granted. And everyone who is granted permission will be provided with insurance. This makes navigation convenient, but they must follow their designated channel. They enforce this. Simply put, from the past, when ships passed normally, were you aware that it was within Oman's 12 nautical miles?
Yes.
Now, Iran has placed mines, forcing all ships to pass through the channel within Iran's 12 nautical miles. By passing through their territorial waters, they can charge a fee. They claim this fee is for pilotage services, meaning they can tell you where there are no mines and it's safe. They will also charge fees for environmental protection and other related matters. So, in conclusion, it's clear that the charging of fees is being prepared. Furthermore, they specified in the announcement that for the first 60 days, it's not that they won't charge, but the Iranian government will bear the cost. [Laughter]
Good, good.
Oh, it came out.
Yes, it came out. This is Iran's strategy, at least regarding Hormuz, it's settled and clearly in their hands. And Mr. Thani, don't forget that this MOU has gone global. It's not just that it came out during the G7 meeting, meaning the world's largest economic powers, seven countries, have seen it, and no one objected. The Strait of Hormuz issue is settled. Besides generating revenue from passing ships, I've mentioned before that Iran stated there are 7 underwater internet cables. 30% of the world's internet traffic passes through these 7 cables. They said it's in their backyard, so they should be paid for installation and maintenance. Iran has the authority and responsibility for maintenance. If any cable breaks, Iran will handle the repairs. In summary, future revenue may also come from these fiber optic cables, whose owners are major multinational corporations from the US, who certainly have the money to pay. So, Hormuz is clearly in their hands. And with it in their hands, Iran controls the oil pipeline to the world. Whether they open it wide to lower oil prices or narrow it slightly so oil prices don't drop too much, it's in Iran's hands. Who will be number 1, 2, or 3 is in Iran's hands. Who will be the buyer of oil, number 1, 2, or 3, is in Iran's hands. Therefore, this gives them a lot of power. And in the future, if they quarrel with the US, [cough] they can immediately squeeze or close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US will have no choice. So, right now, the Strait of Hormuz issue seems to be settled. But the negotiations have opened up two other issues: financial matters and the war in Lebanon. Regarding financial matters, there are outstanding issues. First, Iran's frozen assets. They want the US to clearly state when they will be released. Second, regarding sanctions. Because currently, although Iran's oil is allowed to be purchased, it's not clear whether buyers might face secondary sanctions, meaning level 2 or level 3 sanctions, which could disrupt the banking systems of countries buying Iranian oil. They say this needs to be lifted. This has been clearly stated. And the US has said that if that's the case, then negotiations on uranium must also proceed, perhaps as an exchange. But in my opinion, that's a secondary problem. Because the Strait of Hormuz has much greater power than uranium. Now, another lingering issue is Israel's role. Because in this negotiation, Israel has dragged the US into a war, and it turned out to be a war where Iran's combat capability was fierce and intense, and they defeated both Israel and the US to such an extent that they were no match. The US couldn't even protect its own bases, let alone Arab countries. Therefore, with the MOU, Israel is the one left out. This creates a problem because in Israel, Netanyahu is facing elections in September or October, around the 27th or 28th of October, if I recall correctly. He has to face new elections. In this situation, there's a problem: if Netanyahu loses and is not re-elected, he's very likely to go to jail because he has corruption cases pending in court. He was able to avoid prosecution and fight the cases so far because of this war. This is why Israel has been bothering and attacking Lebanon repeatedly. Now, I need to explain to Mr. Thani that the attacks into Lebanon have two levels: a red line level and a level below the red line. The level below the red line is when Israel invades and occupies the southern part of Lebanon, which they've held for 10 years. They occupied it because they said Hezbollah was sending drones and weapons into Israel from the north. So, they said they needed to occupy the southern area of Lebanon and told all Lebanese citizens to evacuate so that Hezbollah fighters wouldn't be there. They also said that the area Israel occupies is comparable to the size of Singapore, the entire island, the whole country, which is quite large. And in this area, there have been constant clashes with Hezbollah. When Israel invaded or attacked the area below the red line, Iran said they wouldn't accept it, and the MOU should be paused, and the Strait of Hormuz should be closed. But it didn't reach the red line. The level that went beyond the red line is when Israel, out of the blue, sent planes and bombed Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, which they had done before. The last time it happened, Iran said this was going too far. Israel attacked Lebanon, and Iran fired rockets from Iran itself into Israel, and they fought for a while until Trump ordered a ceasefire. Whether it's the incident below or above the red line, I think there's still a considerable risk of it happening in the next 60 days. And when it happens, people will worry if the deal will collapse or what will happen. But from what I can see, based on the attitudes of J.D. Vance and Trump, and guessing that the political process in the US is moving forward because it has lowered oil prices, and Trump's chances of losing the election have decreased due to this deal. Therefore, I think the chances of US political parties accepting this deal will be high. And if it proceeds like this, perhaps Israel's Netanyahu will try to perform some miracles, more or less, to make his base in Israel feel that he has tried his best to protect Israel's interests, so that he still has a chance to win the election. I think there will be more of this until after 60 days, and then we'll see. But overall, I think the main idea of preserving the MOU and making it a permanent ceasefire is there. I think it will go in this direction.
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