Transcription
Today's number, guys, is 1%. But could the next Fed chair really push interest rates that low? And would it send markets skyrocketing up or a cautionary tale of a bigger crash?
As we uncover the secrets of lines such as this and what they could mean in terms of Wall Street, it's clear to see that the biggest money is going into rotation. And it's not just where everybody is looking. With gold and silver having massive breakouts over the last week, it's clear that there is one thing left behind and it could impact everything. So, join us as we have a look at where the stop-loss hunt levels are for Bitcoin, stocks, commodities, and of course, everything else to do with cryptos. There's a lot to get into. Let's take a look at it right now together.
Well, welcome back everyone to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. It's great to have you here. My name is Thomas Atinson and in today's video, we'll be covering the latest data, including the macro, the big Wall Street movements, and of course, what you need to know when it comes to the news. But let's kick things off with the big stories going around and what they mean in the context of the market over the next days, weeks, and even months.
And the first one here is, of course, breaking news that President Trump has been asked about where he sees interest rates next year. And he said 1% and maybe even lower than that. Now, you may be saying, "Wow, that means I need to buy a lot of stocks." And of course, this could send things absolutely skyrocketing, at least initially. But history is, of course, one of those things that we need to learn from. And a lot of cuts, especially into a potentially inflationary environment, could cause serious concerns. So, let's break down the good, the bad, and the ugly as we have a look at this along with what the market reacted to when it comes to Friday.
So, first up, who will Trump nominate as the next Fed chair? Well, we can see here there has been a massive movement over the last couple of days when it comes to the betting markets, and Kevin Walsh has now come out in front. Now, he's been there for a while, but of course, this is going to be a big story line over the next coming months. and expect this to be one of the biggest stories into 2026 with a lot of volatility around this event and of course a extreme amount of volatility coming out especially if we are about to see a massive cut cycle like we've never had before.
Now it brings us up to a very important question. Everybody assumes and rightfully so especially when we're at all-time highs that a slow cutting cycle is actually extremely good and it tends to bring what we call a dull bull market. And you can see here based on Goldman Sachs research that since the 1990s, we've actually seen generally all markets return bullishness unless they started to go sideways and then started to move on down. But actually, when you pull even more data, it's all about the speed of the cut. And in fact, interest rate cuts don't necessarily bring the bull when it comes to markets. And if they're done in a very speedily way, it tends to bring actually a very big problem back into the economy. And we can see that here when we take a look at the majority of declines when it comes to Fed pivots and the markets over the last 50 years. If you take a look at Fed pivots, they're notoriously negative for markets. And it's all about, of course, the speed. And if Trump is to get over what, another two, three% worth of cuts coming through in these markets, then we could be literally looking at one of these extremely fast pivot points which can cause extreme booms in markets and then extreme busts.
But I'd be interested to know your opinions down below. Do you think we'll get anywhere near that rate? Do you think this all has to do with the debt that's being refinanced next year? And of course, will this end up being one of these particular bubble periods? Remember, it's really not so much about the Fed conditions and the interest rates themselves. It's about the overall liquidity in the system. And we've long since argued this since 2022-23 when we bottomed off the market that the Federal Reserve was actually embarking in what we call stealth QE. Now, if that actually starts to end and we start to see liquidity drop off, which hasn't happened yet, but if it does happen, that tends to actually mark the changing of the guard when it comes to a bubble into a potential bubble pop.
Now, we've actually seen financial conditions tighten before back in the 1840s, back in the 1920s, which is obviously the rally everyone knows about, and of course in the 1980s with Japan, the one of the biggest bubbles of all time. And then of course we've got the .com one which everyone's looking at right now. So what tends to happen is we see financial conditions actually tighten. And one of the reasons these could tighten is to do with of course bonds and more importantly refinancing of the debt that's coming in 2026. But one of the good signs for markets at least at this stage is that markets are of course looking ahead at a big year in terms of tax refunds in 2026. And these can cause of course what we call at least initial booms in markets particularly usually in high risk and maybe even leverage positions.
Now, we've been talking about this for a while as we've seen IWC and many, many other smaller cap and midcap funds actually perform better than some of the larger stocks. And we won't have it in this video, but I will share it with you this week, guys, where you actually see that the MAG 7 stocks, only two of them have actually outperformed the S&P 500 as of this date, so this year. And that is pretty amazing when you consider how much of a part of the markets the MAG 7 have been for so long. We've now got the top 10, but it's really been semiconductors driving us this year, metals, which we've been huge on here on the channel, and other market sectors, which can be both seen as a good thing and a bad thing.
Now, let's talk about the NASDAQ for a moment, and the breadth that's come into this market, because of course, Wall Street plays the game over a very long period of time. It's not just what happens in a click of a finger. It's what happens over weeks and months into the structure of markets. And the first one here is the NASDAQ has now been above the 100-day moving average for 150 days. And this is courtesy of Subu Trade as you can see here. And that might look pretty good and it certainly is potentially into the end of the year. But it does come with a cautionary tale which is that we do get a little murky after a few months of this and of course from this point on and of course it does also tend to bring bulls with it. And it kind of fits into a thesis that I've been working on for 2026 for a while now, which is all about volatility coming in due to midterm years and multiple potential large sell-offs with huge, huge opportunities in them.
Now, let's take a look at cyclical sector stocks because they're currently leading the breakout as we've seen over the last month, month and a half. And you might say, well, this is pretty bad for markets. But as you can see here, according to the data that comes from Dean Christians over on X Turningpoint Research, you can see here that this is actually a pretty good sign of a market that is continuing to at least push what we call dullness or a slow increase. Now, you might say, well, why is it not like, you know, a massive rally that's going to go ballistic? Well, it can't be if it doesn't include technology going absolutely wild. Because remember guys, tech sector makes up so much of the S&P now that it even just the first few stocks make up 36% of the overall S&P and then the rest of the tech sector if you include it all is like 42 to 46% of the market now. So of course if we do have a broadening market it's going to be more dull and it's also going to be a symbol of for some people a mid-cycle kind of movement and for me at least I think what we call a late cycle movement. So, it's going to be interesting to see the sectors that do well next year. If healthcare starts to perform extremely well, yeah, we better be watching out and of course we will be tracking that here. So, make sure to subscribe for it.
Now, we have seen of course broadening markets, but we're also starting to see weakness and I actually put it out to you guys over on X links in the description down below to follow us there whether you're seeing weakness in potentially your area in the US. Of course, the US is the market we need to watch here. If I asked you guys over in Canada, I'm sure some markets are looking pretty nasty. New Zealand as well. And if I asked the Australian audience, most of us would say, well, it's still on a rocket ship at this stage, though there are softening signs.
So, first up, I noticed that a few of you guys mentioned that the Bay Area, California, and other areas have come down even upwards of 10 to 20% in certain areas from the top. And of course, this is just based on what I'm seeing here on the ground from you guys. and that Houston as well was struggling a bit including some parts of Florida. Now, some of you will agree and disagree with me. Put them in the comments down below. I am reading all of these right now. So, I'm very interested to see where you are seeing the good stuff and the bad stuff right now in housing as a lot of these markets are connected. And remember, one of the things I teach in my courses, particularly my advanced course and I teach everywhere, is that this is all actually part of a giant cycle. And everything is actually connected. And it's of course connected by debt and connected by leverage. And we're seeing both of those go out of control right now in both the housing market, 50-year mortgage coming, guys, and of course also in the stock market, three times levered ETFs, etc.
We're also seeing equity flows coming in big time. And this one here from Todd Sone is interesting. And it basically says here, we've done over $300 billion in equity ETFs over the last three months. Doesn't exactly sound negative to me. That's only the second time that's happened in history. Another way to look at it is year 1, October '22 to '23, we only did about 1.3 billion per day. And now we're up to 5.5 billion per day in year 4. So what is this showing us? It's showing us there's generally an overall uptick of flows especially into the end of the year and that it usually is window dressing. It's all about, you know, getting those lobster rolls on the uh on the plate over the holiday period and uh yeah, it's a lot of money flowing in. So, does that show that there is negativity in the markets? I would say not at this point, but there most likely is an absolute ton of leverage. And leverage, leverage, leverage is the story of 2026, guys.
to make mark everything else out as well. Just remember the first half of January is actually one of the best weeks of or two two week periods of the year. And the second half of December also comes out very strongly when you look at history since the 1950s. This is courtesy of Isabella Goldman Sachs and of course daily chart book in terms of the share.
Now let's take take a look here at how this is impacting into markets. So, if you're not familiar, December and possibly January tends to be okay for things such as small caps and the Russell 2000. Well, it also just turns out that according to latest data here from uh I think it's Schaffer's Investments that we are actually seeing extremely high short interest on the Russell 2000 stocks and it does mark out exactly what we've been witnessing. We've talked about IWC. We've talked about the excluding MAG 7 stock index ETFs that are pushing higher. We've talked about rotation. It really does seem to be that Wall Street is pushing certain markets that have for too long been behind and have now started to play catchup. And we're seeing this in flows. According to Duality Research here, we can see small cap ETF flows went ballistic just recently going back into the positive. And we're seeing it more importantly in price action. Gran Hawkridge actually marked out last week that if you take a look at the S&P 400 and 600, they're actually going way more ballistic than the general stock market. And of course, this is exactly what we've been seeing on the uh on the actual price action itself. And as we often say here on the channel, it's follow the flows, not our opinions. And that's because I'm a huge huge component here of if it's in the press, it's often in the price. And we have to have patience to react to the flow market because when the market starts to actually move and it starts to move in the direction that we may not believe on our bias, that actually is usually a very strong move. Remember, if the press has impacted you to think the wrong way and the market's going off in the opposite way, then that can be an incredibly powerful trade in itself.
Now, we do know that there are some concerns. Why could the Fed continue to cut? Well, we had a dual mandated Fed. On one hand, we've got inflation. On the other hand, we have, of course, the jobs numbers, and the jobs numbers aren't looking too good. A mixture of AI, a mixture of a slowing economy, and of course, just people realizing they overhired during the pandemic period is causing people to lose their jobs. And it's not actually a very healthy economy. Of course, we all know that, but doesn't matter. The economy and the stock market are different things.
So, why could we continue to see a justified Fed rate cut? Well, we already know it's of course what Trump wants. He actually mentioned that he wouldn't mind uh having a little play on that one, I guess. And we also could see here that US quits rate is going down. So, this basically is telling us that people are not prepared to leave their jobs anymore. They're seeing stuff on the ground that makes them scared. And this also could mean that we do get cuts and we get reinflation. And if we think about it, what's that going to help? It's going to help gold. It's going to help silver. It's going to help palladium. It's going to help platinum. It's going to help many precious metals in particular, but it also could come back into other commodities. And we've discussed this several times as we are starting to see some bottoming commodities markets. And we'll talk about them in a second.
Now, what else did we mention before? We obviously have a Federal Reserve that could be cutting rates, but on the flip side of that, we've got a Federal Reserve that is also having to do its own buyback of debt. So you can see here, US Treasuries bought up $12.5 billion of their own debt, equally the largest buyback in history, which just happened a week before. So we can clearly see there is a problem here. And uh possibly that's another reason we might need some low rates here, guys, because of course there are a lot of government bonds and more importantly a ton of private equity companies that have to refinance in 2026. This is going to be the story line. This is this is huge. We've talked about it for a while now. It is going to be a big deal. And that's because there are jitters in the markets. Look at Oracle's debt. The CDs here, the con the credit default swaps. They are going up big time. And of course, this is showing that the market is now freaking out a little bit about the spend that's going on in businesses. Do we can we justify it? What kind of money are we going to make in the future? This is why every earning season is going to be so important into 2026 and we'll be very clearly tracking 2026 earnings. Q1, Q2, Q3. Something's going to happen in one of these. And we're going to eventually see a slowdown in big tech when that happens. Yeah, that's a massive, massive signal. And it's not just an amber light. That could be a red flashing warning.
But it also could bring opportunities because as we can see here, Wall Street is pretty big on buying the dip right now. XLK went up 10 days, actually 12 days in a row. Then it dipped off. You might say, "Was that bad?" No, it's actually fine by markets. And of course, this is all in line with everything we've been talking about recently, which is that the Zag breath thrust we got earlier on and the cuts that we've seen at all-time highs tend to usually bring the overall bull. So, I think for now, the structure looks okay. And a lot of people are freaking out about what happened on Friday, but you've got to remember we didn't lose any structural level. So, there is a chart we'll look at later on today's video that I put in our newsletter. Again, pin comment down below. Make sure to sign up for that newsletter, guys. You'll enjoy it. And one of those charts that we shared actually shows that at least for now, it doesn't look like there's a problem in this market structurally just yet.
Now, first gold, copper, silver, all these types of things went. Could we see energy resurface in 2026? This is of course a big discussion point. You can see here Warren Pies has this interesting chart here of overall DBC and you can kind of see it's doing nothing. So if we do start to see commodities blow up, that is also a sign of potential inflation and stagflation. Now a few of you guys did comment on this and I agree with you. If oil isn't going absolutely ballistic underneath the hood, we are not usually in uh some form of stagflation. Just remember uh cutting rates actually not bad for gold and silver, but um yeah, at the same time, if we don't see oil going ballistic, it's unlikely we're actually in a stagflationary environment just yet.
Bubble watch, are we following exactly what you would expect? I would say yes. Um we are following the '98 to 2000 narrative, at least for now. And of course, we've looked at the 1960s several times this year. But do remember, guys, one of the big arguments we had a month and a half ago now for strength and continued strength for now was that we stayed above the 50-day moving average. We then pulled back around the right amount, which of course is normal. And we have rallied up. And you'll notice around the period we are right now, there's sometimes a little dip and then generally the markets rally. The real question mark comes actually about 100 to 150 days after this read. So that takes us into January of next year.
Now are Wall Street making uh big moves? Yes, there are a lot of clusters coming up. We always track, of course, dark policy on the channel. Something extra we put in, including the options moves. We got a lot to cover. You know, they're all connected. And uh here the S&P 500 shows that we have a huge amount of darkpool transactions. Massive clusters at the top. And then of course we've even had a couple of big ones here down near the lows on Friday. So what's that telling us? Could it be Wall Street selling and taking profit? Certainly could. Could it be all part of an accumulation for a bigger rally? Yes. And unfortunately, it's not giving us too much evidence. There's a lot of trades. There's a lot of clustering, but we're going to need to really see price action come through.
Speaking of price action, let's move over to Bitcoin because it's been, I think, an interesting chart, but also stuck. Bitcoin ETF flows turned to be I would say neutral across the board. And you can actually see here when it comes to where the stop losses and liquidity that just around $89,000 and also just around $95,000 tend to hold some of the biggest orders right now. So if the market does drop under here, then we could have problems. If the market and it doesn't spike up, that of course could start a bit of a heavy sell. If the market does spike above 95 though, you guys can see here that that could push a 96-97 narrative and I think very clearly we could go to 102 to 104 which we've talked about quite a few times. Anything is on for Bitcoin. There's both cases. You can say flag breakdown and you can also say rally and squeeze. But I think the next big move it should be the one that probably tells us the direction and we start to move through.
So, let's now have a look at the S&P, then do options flow, then do lead indicators and everything we usually do. And the first one here is the S&P with the advanced decline line. And you guys can see here that we haven't actually made an all-time high in the real market. But what we have done is we've made an advanced decline all-time high. And let me tell you, it's very rare that means the high is in. It can happen. It's just super rare. So it generally means that even if we keep dipping at some point in the future we will be higher in this market and I think there's only two other periods of time that hasn't actually occurred which is you know and I mean relatively soon future not like some like you know dystopian universe where we're like 6 years 10 years off and it's like well yeah no dah the market goes up bro u absolutely I mean very rel relatively close period you know couple of months couple of weeks so this is all very important And it does mark of course what we've had which is increased volatility since the Fed cut rates and of course we're getting all the this information. A lot of people may also buy into the market potentially on this idea that the rate cuts are coming. But do remember that's going to take our short yields down and our long yields up because the market dictates the 10, the 20 and the 30 and the two and the one years of course is more controlled by the Fed. So this is just going to be a big story moving forward.
Any problems here? Not really. we hit kind of the support at 6,800. You'll notice in a moment that's where a lot of puts are. And remember, we still have a 6700 which is still very bullish even if we hit that in structure. So things look relatively good here. And here are the OP upgraded options levels. So let's now take a look at the option zones. And the first one here is multiexpirations. You can see here 6,800 is a huge strike guys. It's a massive strike here. It's a massive strike uh for the Monday session. it would probably be likely to hold the support of the market. We closed at 68.28. So that means that we do go further down. There's going to be a bit of incentive to keep it up. But we do expect that 6700 uh would be also a huge strike. And for some reason 6770 just came out a few times as well in multiple expirations. So a lot going on this week will be a decent amount of options. So do remember to stay tuned as we give each day's update. But 68 I think is a pretty good support. We dropped that. Yeah, 6770 for a day trader, but I think 6700 be the next level to look for.
Let's move over to Tesla. We've been in positive gamma and we are in positive gamma. So it is actually pushing higher and it bucked the trend of almost other stocks and just shows you again options rule Tesla's trade and we're looking at just under 500 ideally for that one right now. Nvidia uh it is yawnfest here guys. It actually dropped pretty hard. You can see 185 is too much for it and 175 and 170 are the put supports. So again kind of lining up pretty well there with 6,800 for the markets and I bit uh struggling around 52 but again we get above 52. 56 is the next level. 55-56. So again we could be in positive gamma relatively quickly. Don't discount 43 is about 75k for Bitcoin. And of course these levels here to be determined where the real key is, but I'd say 50 will become a pretty big level. So that's going to be um you know very close to current price on Bitcoin right now.
Let's move over to gold. And you can see here gold is struggling with the 395-400, but if we get through 400 it'll go really positive gamma. And at the moment it already is that way. So basically the options flow is of course really starting to squeeze to the upside. That was an excellent close on the weekly which we'll look at in just a moment.
All right, let's jump into whether the bonds market cares and the answer is quite simply not yet. We just have not seen a spike out of overall spreads and that generally means that it is still calm in markets. Another thing that I think is really important, I will shout out the newsletter again for this and that is that I had a look at financials and found that you know it's very rare of course to see a market struggle when financials are still going relatively well. And that could be debt reason and leverage all over the place. But this is not exactly the chart that I would say wow that looks absolutely terrible. Now some people could say yeah it could become bad. You could have that as a false breakout and it turns bad. Sure. But we don't have that evidence right now and the trend has been up. So generally I would say flows and market movement is still in the direction of the positive side. And of course if you look at regionals as well they managed to actually break out a massive um new high here and get back into that previous high level of resistance. So again that looks pretty strong.
Tech sector taking a breather after what has been an epic run. Again to be expected no real problems here. Watch the S&P chart more than anything else for those ones. And one chart I would be watching is Nvidia versus SPY because the stock that took us all the way up is starting to weaken against the spy itself. And I do have an alert set under here as a ratio just in case because what that's telling you is we're losing the leadership that got us here. So it could be a broadening market. Yeah, great, fantastic, whatever. But at the same time, you know, where is the biggest company on Earth? And if it's starting to decline, that's not the best. And of course, we'll be watching the sector. High yield junk, no concerns there. So again, we're not seeing much movement.
And I expect the dollar to not like the idea of getting cut a bazillion times next year. So of course, this really does put pressure on the dollar, at least from the press side, and what we're being told is going to happen. But just remember, the reality could be very different to what we're being told. So watch the price action, watch where the flows are going and not the rhetoric around it. So I think dollar has to be put in massive focus now and we'll continue to focus on 9940 and of course the weekly close was quite bad for it. So it pushed it down. You're going to notice I think a bit of a movement here on yields potentially on Monday. So we might see some movements here. But some levels to watch 3.65 on the top end for the 2-year. If that starts to break up, the market's obviously not believing cuts are coming. We'll see which one's which.
Now, 4350, if you took it, well done to you guys. That's actually an excellent trade here on gold. Um, exceptional target, a really cool 4250 plus break and a great momentum followthrough. You watched over the last two weeks. I was really waiting for that. So, that was pretty sweet. But, I do think it's a significant break up. You know, gold, I've said it before, I think it's got a lot of money in it. Um, longterm it could go really really solid. Obviously 7500 possibility. I do think in between there there's going to be an epic sell. But for now, you know, why can't we get to 5k? Silver playing the game as well. Although it getting more volatile, you know, I'm saying 75 on that. I guess have to upgrade it if gold does go ballistic. But for now, ratios actually hit interesting target levels for silver and gold. We talk about this in our macro class uh which is part of our private community. But yeah, I think I think it hit like a a target for silver in that ratio component. There's a second one which I think is much higher, but yeah, interesting to see the volatility there. Any concerns? Not really. I think it was a pretty strong movement up. You expect flush outs. Uh watch of course $60 an ounce. Uh should we get back down there?
Tesla pretty strong. Nice closure. We have a look here at the weekly. actually a weekly high close as well. Is that an all-time weekly high close? I can't remember. Yes, it is. So, this is actually exceptionally nice. Um, looks really good. Of course, we had to reverse to buy. We never wanted to sell, but we had to reverse to being buying over here. And it just shows you again why you've got to be like this in markets very quick, but also, you know, really bringing together the pieces of the puzzle because look at how quickly this market has turned and it's actually holding this 4-hour 20 very well. So that could be a level to watch should it pull back to Chinese market. That's some boring stuff there guys. But you know again maintain the macro, maintain the liquidity is coming in that market. Just takes a while to pack in. And remember when that market goes it goes ballistic.
NASDAQ big sell no doubt that was actually quite a wild one. 2.44% brings the volatility back in. We did end up back at the daily 50, which interestingly had held a lot of the rallies since the uh the uh lows that we saw just a while ago. And it's going to be interesting to see how the bid happens here. Remember 6,800 is the put support on the Monday session for the S&P. I'd expect that to hold the NAS as well. And if we drop that, then we go negative gamma and then all of a sudden, you know, we could be pushing back quite a lot deeper. Um maybe look at a 618 fib on the NASDAQ at that point should we go there.
And now it is time for the crypto. And it's still searing as a higher highs and higher lows here on Ethereum. A lot of people are going to be screaming at me saying, "Tom, it's a flag. It's going to die." I'm not prepared to say any of those things yet. Why? Because hey, why can't we be optimistic? And two, because we do know there are plenty of opportunities both ends for some squeezy squeeze. So I think the levels to actually watch are about this one which is a lower low 87 and a half. We break underneath that then you could trigger quite a lot of sells and obviously a couple of hunts as well and that could bring in the flag. And if we are going to flag then of course people are going to take distance and what they're going to do they're going to grab something like this. Take that and they're going to extrapolate that one out. There's a couple of ways you can do it. And they're going to go down into these ma major support lines like 67s and stuff. A big swipe of 75. Now, I don't know if that's going to happen. You know, some people are going to even say, "Well, you know, Tom, we could be going all the way this distance as well." But, uh, I I'm going to go with the flows improved last week in terms of general ETFs and we wait for that direction. I think it's really important to to see that. Remember, we did manage to close above the daily 20 as well, which started to stabilize. So, I think there's going to be some shenanigans on this chart that are well worth watching.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, then please remember to subscribe, smash that like button. A lot of content in today's one. So, obviously, if you're new here, yes, I understand there's a lot of things going on. But in general, as we like to do as a little bit of a concept here at the end, I do think that the markets remain at least intact bullishly for now. I think that if we do get a ton of rate cuts next year, which is the next year problem, uh that is actually not that good. And remember, we continue to look at structure. So, for now, the markets look pretty good. They're broadening. Fine. Fine. Whatever. Uh but in the next year, when we get 3 to 6 months of data after, of course, that Fed first cut, that's going to tell us a lot about what Wall Street's real plan is over the next 12 months. Look forward to seeing you here in 2026, guys. Remember, we will have a bit of a special webinar that's going to be set up very soon. So, I'm looking forward to doing that with you. And I hope you have a wonderful weekend. Bye for now. Have a great day. See you.