Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you have energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, October 18, 2025, in front of a completely green crypto market which is pleasing. The altcoins are slowly rising over the last 24 hours, so we're going to look at whether we've found a bottom and now it's off to the moon. Does the structure tell us "No, the bottom is not found, hang on because it's going to be a roller coaster." Well, we're going to look a little bit at the week which closed not very pretty in terms of US ETFs. We see here the Bitcoin ETFs which were very bearish over the week. Basically, Tuesday's surge is canceled by Wednesday's selling. And if you look at the rest, well, you have over a billion dollars of Bitcoin that were sold this week, unfortunately, for Ethereum. We have Friday canceling Tuesday, if you will, and so basically we are at around minus 400 million dollars of Ethereum. Not very pretty. The market is soon entering extreme fear, we are at 25 and the border. So if it starts to correct again next week, well the market will enter the extreme zone which are the best zones for making these little runs. But you can't just run for anything. If you buy bad things, well your stomach will digest them poorly and it won't be very good for your portfolio. You have to buy quality food, fruits, vegetables, some good stuff with good stuff and a little bit of good stuff. And then it will be fine. This is not financial advice, of course. Well, in terms of altcoins, we see that today there's a small open candle but a small little rise. The positive side of altcoins, we see that the 200-day moving average is very, very preserved. It's very pretty. The flash crash last Friday, we see that the 100-day moving average held. It closed well above it. Look at this nuclear wick. So very good. The next day it tried to go red. The 200-day moving average held yesterday. The 200-day moving average also held today. Very good. All of this is good. So we have understood that if we have the breakout candle of the 200-day moving average which is here at 710 billion dollars, we will have to put on diapers and buy tissues because it will really not be pretty. It would mean that the Bollinger bands will widen and the candles will slide on them. And in that case, we will be looking at a significant drop in altcoins and it risks being carnage. So really, this 200-day moving average, it has to hold, you see. For now, well the bulls are there, they are not letting go too much. There is still momentum on the structure. We have a potential small bullish channel, things that we don't like too much. This is a bit more likely to continue unfortunately. So we'll have to hang on. Now, the very positive news is that on the daily chart, we have nice bullish divergences. So we could very well have a nice rebound, a rebound of about 15%, for example, which would reach the 50-day moving average here. So we wouldn't be surprised to see a small rise because at some point when you have corrected well, bullish divergences appear. Bullish divergence, well, it's rather bullish in the end. So the answer will be on Monday at the market opening. Now, regarding Bitcoin's daily chart, well, it's not very, very pretty because unfortunately it broke its 200-day moving average yesterday which is at $107,670, and today it is being rejected without any respect by this 200-day moving average. On the other hand, below it acts as resistance. So now we'll have to light a candle in Lourdes. If Bitcoin touches the lower Bollinger band here at $104,800, what will it do? Will it continue to widen and Bitcoin will pump? Is that possible? Yes, because the bulls are there, they have momentum, momentum is growing, they are not happy. We haven't yet reached the oversold zone on the RSI, which would really be the best zone in the place to buy Bitcoin for those who want to. But I'm buying beforehand, you see. But here, really, the oversold zone on the daily is like a small hot bread roll from the bakery, you see. You're not hungry and you eat it anyway. Well. Now, regarding the structure, remember, I'm doing a quick overview and tomorrow there will be the long-term analysis. Okay. What were we following? We were following a potential small A, small B, small C for a small rise. Okay? That's scenario number 1 that we've been following for weeks. Bitcoin exploded directly. So we said, "Okay, it's not a big deal, it's an irregular flat, it makes a small A, small B, small C. All of this is potentially a big B. For this big A, we just need the big C. So a correction, but one that won't break the low to start again. There. Well, that's number 2. And what did this little rascal do? It made a very rare structure which is ultimately a contracting flat. That is to say, it made something that contracts with here the A, the B, then you see the C and boom, explosion. And why can we really affirm that it's a contracting flat? Because boom, we had the descent that broke this level. So that's an A structure. After, well, can it make an expanding flat? That is to say, a wave A, then after a small A, small B, small C, all of that is wave B, wave A, that's wave C and it explodes. That remains possible, but it's a matter of probability. There's a low probability of that happening. Basically, if Bitcoin explodes directly towards a new ATH, it's because it's making a very rare structure which is an expanding flat. So, this scenario has about a 5% probability. You see, to give you a small percentage, it's not 0.001, it's 5% but it's still low. So here, there's a bit more probability that it made the contracting small A, small B, small C. It validated the contracting by breaking the high and boom, we're starting a new structure. There. That's where the probability is highest in terms of structure, that we're starting a new one. The new one, we could say a small A, small B, small C like this and it pushes. I don't think so. I don't think so. This looks internal, it's quite aggressive, it looks internal to this wave. So all of this is ultimately a big wave A. Okay? The advantage is that when wave A is finished, well, we're waiting for a big wave B. So it could also be, then, a structured wave B. So altcoins won't know where to dance, you see, altcoins pushed when it corrected. Ah, it will go back to hell, it will rebound. Well, wave B can be, then, either a structured wave B like a nice impulse correction here continuation a big structured wave B like that. Well, so after A, we'll have to wait for a B which will be rather bullish, but then boom, a C, a C of despair. And what could this little rascal do? It could do, well, here A, we don't know, it's the end, this big wave A can continue, you see, it falls, it rebounds, it falls, it can rebound, it falls again, it can continue, well, when wave A continues, we'll wait for a wave B, and if wave B doesn't go up very high, wave C could go down very low, for example, to reach the gap on futures contracts at 92 to make a big regular flat and boom, explosion, then after this regular flat, it's back up, clearly it's the structure that validated that explodes to the highest point, so a new all-time high. And so here, well, unfortunately, you have to be patient because we're going to start, there are strong probabilities, in any case, that we're starting a new structure that's a bit choppy. Well, after, within this new structure, there can be small things that happen. For example, here, we can have simply a small A, a small B, a small C. Boom! That is to say, we can still have a rise, but we'll have to be careful. As I said in recent days, we can even have a small bullish wave, but that would validate here. Bam! Descent again and it can still be part of the big internal wave A. Well, in any case, for now, it's not in great shape, it's not mega, mega pretty. Uh, it's, well, the best is 5% probability. The expanding one, it goes straight to the moon, but 5% probability, you have to forget it. And where there's more probability is new structures. We are in the big A. The big A is not necessarily finished. If it finishes, all the better. We're starting a big B that will last 2 months, you see. And here it could be the rise of October, November, December, but it will be a B. It won't be Bitcoin at $154,000. Bitcoin will surely remain around $126,000. So for now, in the very short term, we have a small bullish channel. That's not very, very bullish, bullish channels. Sooner or later they end up falling, if you will. Well, and if it falls, where can it go? There's, there's not much, there's about 3 billion dollars to reach around $101,000. But what we note is that there are 13 to reach at 117. So what will start wave B now? Zoom zoom zoom to take care of everything above. That remains possible for now. We have nothing that tells us that wave B is about to start. You see, we would need a little exhaustion to happen on the structure. Thing, it falls, it rebounds, it falls, a big bearish channel, you see. And then we'll say, "Ah, this smells like the end of A and it's starting for B." So for now, unfortunately, the structure doesn't tell us that we're going to finish with October Upber and Uccember or Descent to the Moonb, do what you want. It doesn't feel like it on the structures, you see. Well, I hope I'm wrong, but well, for now, the structure doesn't show it. Regarding Ethereum, Ethereum is not pretty, it's the break of the lower Bollinger band at $3,667 and boom, direction the 200-day moving average at $3,180 to save its little wicks. It needs to recover its tenkan at $3,935 which has been rejecting it for 4 days, but today the kijun here at $4,110, then after the 50-day moving average at $4,300. So there's work to be done, the bears are still there. On the other hand, the positive side is that there are bullish divergences forming, so at some point, wave B will have to start, right? Okay? That's the idea. But we remember that even if it takes a month, a month and a half to make a zigzag wave B, zigzagging upwards, but rising, you see, in a zigzag. It's not the to the moon. We'll have to deal with wave C in a month. That's the idea of the long-term structure, and we'll see that tomorrow too. And here in the short term, well, a small bullish channel, as long as it stays on, you see, a zigzag upwards, it's a bit more likely to go downwards. Does it want to go below its wick at $3,470? Well, it could go there. There's still some liquidity there. There. That doesn't change from yesterday, quite simply because, anyway, it hasn't evolved much. So as long as it goes up on a small bullish channel, be careful that it doesn't look for around $3,470 to liquidate around 2 billion dollars. After, of course, we have nothing better, but it might take care of it, especially for its big wave B. Regarding Solana here, so Solana is not good, it's Solana breaking its 200-day moving average at $174 and here it's the descent. That is to say, the famous big A, wave A, the one we're in, which is choppy, choppy, well, it means it will continue to be choppy. There. That's the idea. Well, so that's why we need to be a little cautious, everything is being rejected by its short zone and boom. And here, as we can see for other altcoins, it's making a small bullish channel and that, well, that doesn't mix well. That has a higher probability of breaking, and so it could go below its wick at $170. You see, the bears are there, they are not very happy. $170, if we look a little bit here at the liquidations, that's where it is. So $170, it can largely go there because there's something to liquidate. There's all of this to liquidate at $170. About 500 million, so it can go there without a problem. To the north, yes, there's more, there's almost a billion, but I think the north will be kept for when it finishes wave A. Wave A can really go into extreme fear, you see, on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, in a mode where people really capitulate, in a mode where it's not possible. After that comes wave B. Wave B, everyone rises and climbs quietly to reach what's higher. And then, well, finally, when wave B is finished, it's the despair, it's wave C which will make everyone capitulate. And so here, what am I going to do? Since my mouse has no more batteries and doesn't work, well, I'm going to look for a cable to plug in my mouse. Yes. And to finish now with XRP, so XRP, it was rejected without any respect by its 200-day moving average at $2.58. It went to look for its lower Bollinger band around $2.19. XRP, well, it's like its peers. The red candle that breaks here, that plays with the Bollinger bands at $2.17, that also goes to $2.13 to reach the gap. It's the lower Bollinger band that continues to widen, and it's the descent to hell that will begin. That is to say, wave A will continue to fall, boom, boom, boom, unfortunately. Is that possible? Well yes, the bears are still there. But there are also bullish divergences on this XRP, you see. So here we have a small bullish channel like the others which tells us, "Well, these are not the structures we like the most, it could continue to fall to reach the gap, and since the gap is not far at $2.13, there's a good chance of going there. After, if it continues to fall like this on a small bearish channel that exhausts itself, then it will take off. So we can see that at the gap at $2.13, there's something to aim for. There's a little bit, let's say around 120-130 million if it goes to $2.13 to grab all of that. Of course, there's more to the north, so at some point it will grab to the north. So, in conclusion, yes, for now the markets are not very good. There are bullish channels. I wouldn't be surprised if it dips a bit downwards, but we remember that the biggest liquidity is now to the north for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, I think many others. We also remember that in terms of structure, okay, a new corrective structure has started because since we broke the lows, we first broke the highs and then we broke the lows. So it's a new structure. This is wave A. And then there's no problem. Wave A can continue to climb, climb, climb. When this wave A is finished, when everyone is scared, it will be the beautiful wave B which will be rather good. We can breathe for at least a month, 2 months. Why? Because wave A, for example, you take it on Bitcoin, well, for now, it's lasting, right? Wave A has been 12 days, you see, it could last a few more days, and wave B is longer. So, it can last a month, even 2 months, it's allowed. Well, and when wave B is finished here, there will be the last phase of capitulation, and those who hold on during this phase of capitulation A, it's those who will be rewarded because after that it will be the explosion because once A B C is validated, boom, explosion towards new, towards new rebuilt for Bitcoin. So for now, what does the structure tell us? It could potentially bleed a bit, but there are bullish divergences forming, so the bleeding shouldn't last very, very long anymore. It tells us that after, a wave B, everyone will see their portfolio in the green again. It tells us that after, there will be wave C, everyone will cry because it will be worse than this wave A because it will surely go lower, and then I'm leaving. There. So that's a little bit of the plan for now that we have today. If the plan is modified, changes slightly, well, we'll see it. The structure, we are here every day. So, friends, this quick update for this Saturday. I send you kisses and see you tomorrow. Bye bye. [Music]