Transcription
The last three times we saw this level being reached, markets gave us a face ripper rally. But is that going to be the same now that we've hit it a fourth period? Well, there are signs of exhaustion when it comes to some of the most important stocks in the world. And energy stocks have also been picking up even though that's not what the media's been saying. So, what's going on with Wall Street? And why do we need to be paying attention to one of the most important earnings over the next 24 hours? Are we heading towards the most traded zone, first key support, or even worse things? Join us as we take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos, including some pretty interesting reports coming out of March when it comes to the US economy. See you guys soon. This one is not to be missed.
Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to recaps on the close for markets. Thanks to you guys, we're able to do that and I really appreciate your thumbs up and everything else that you've been doing for us, especially in 2026. Today, we're discussing the latest in the macro, what Wall Street's been up to over the last couple of hours, and of course, the key flows that we've been seeing in the options market, but it really was a mixed day in markets. And I think that's important to note when we take a look at the next read, which is something we discussed in the previous video, the 50 exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart. Now, three times it's bounced off and the last one went on a face ripper rally. Now, in some terms, you may call this the possibility of a double top on small time frames and we came back and we've already seen a small rally, which of course day traders and little scalpers would be pretty happy with. Maybe they've got little smiley faces right now.
Now, why is this important? Well, we do expect at least an initial bounce, but the question is, will we see a higher high? If we do, then of course we could be leading on to some of those big levels causing positive gamma in markets. But what we have seen over the last 24 hours is a little bit of weakness in some of the most important sectors, which we'll check out later on today's show. Another thing that's important to note is we are heading kind of to 2021 territory. And what I mean by that is that we're seeing short squeezes like no other once again. Have a look here at Avis. Less than $100 just a few months ago. Bam. Now we're at $713 as of the close and obviously higher during the session. And this is pretty wild and it just goes to show why risk management is one of the most important things in markets and understanding what you're getting involved in. If you'd said to someone, "Oh, I think Avis is worth $700 fundamentally," then everyone would laugh at you just a few months ago. And of course, it probably isn't worth that much fundamentally, but it is at that price. And this is something that we're starting to see with companies switching from being whatever they have been doing to AI and overnight suddenly becoming worth more. This is reminiscent of sometimes when froth enters markets. And you've got to be a bit careful there when you're going with crazy expectations.
Now, why are some of those things happening and why should we be a little bit concerned if we're more of the longer-term approacher? Well, we are starting to see still a worrying trend in the housing market. This data here sourced from Redfin which we shared over at FX Evolution if you're interested in checking it out. Basically shows there are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers right now. And effectively this is a bit of a problem because of course if people are losing their jobs in the future, they may be forced to sell their Airbnbs and rentals which are now netting less money in many cases than the interest repayments. So effectively their cash flow for the investors especially that bought the last couple of years is starting to look a little bit weak. We are watching the sunbelt this year to see what's happening in America. And obviously while we don't talk about real estate that much remember everything is connected guys and that's something we always wanted to discuss on this channel. Everything's connected. It's super important to understand all markets and of course what happens here tends to lead into stocks eventually as well. And this is something very important to note.
Now, this one here, search from Nick Jelly, I think it is one at X if you're interested. G E R L I over on X. Basically shows that Reuters' latest article says US pending home sales beat expectations in March. And the reason I bring this up and I think he brought it up as well is because data can be presented in many different ways. And if we take a look here, you can also then see that home buyer demand plunged to the worst pending sales for March. Uh, and it was bad. Now, seasonally, it goes up during this period of time as you can see here, but it was the worst and it's been bad for quite some time. Now, I think the note here is it's been bad for quite some time. And of course, if you're just looking at this metric, then you'd say, why are we already not in some kind of global financial crisis? Uh, and that is of course the big note here. Everyone's still employed, at least based on the data and the stats that we're seeing. This one here from Reventure App and obviously sourced from these codes here, also shared uh by the same gentleman over on X if you're interested in checking him out. So yeah, it's interesting to see this data presented in different ways. But what it is showing us is that the housing market continues to be sluggish at best and of course that's showing us that some of the world's biggest debt is starting to look a little bit flaky and of course we need to continue to watch that through the year. So make sure to sub as we will be tracking it as much as possible. But as you can see, data presented in two different ways. Yes, March goes up and that's fine. It goes up on the last month, but it's historically worse than it was last year, than it was the year before, etc., etc., etc. Two ways to read it.
Let's now have a look at what's been going on underneath the hood in terms of some of the biggest transactions. We've been discussing software recently thanks to charts such as this volume leaders chart here. And it just goes to show why you've got to put your mindset into what they're doing, not what they're saying. And more importantly, start to think like a big fund. Over at FX Evolution, we do have a couple of courses. Bit of a plug here for them. Links in the description down below if you're interested. And this is what it's all about, guys. Money flow. What is going on with the money flow? What are they doing? Not what are they saying. So, in this case, why is that important? Well, another decently strong day here for software. And it kind of comes off what has been a pretty strong accumulation, at least guessed accumulation at this point in these charts. And you can kind of see when clusters occur at certain key levels, it can be a bit of a sign of the times. And of course, what have we seen recently? Cluster with massive volume and actually one of the better uh markets over the last kind of 7 days. So, it's been one of the strongest sectors out there. Semiconductors first, now software, a totally different market to where we were just 2 months ago, which was driven by more defensives and obviously more of a late cycle style market. Now, this is actually what happened in 2021 as well. Remember we actually got big caps coming through after we saw ARK and those types of funds drop off and then we went for a bit longer and then suddenly we got a bit of a disaster occurring and of course markets ended up in possible hyper possible bad inflation at that period which could have ended up, you know, much worse than it ended up doing. Now this time around, well, we're facing that and potentially even more problems.
Now let's talk about the big earnings. It's after the close. It's going to be Tesla. This one here from earnings whispers. Obviously, earnings watcher as well here suggests that the possibility based on the options market could be plus or minus 6% on the session. So, it's going to be a pretty big day and this is a fairly important earnings. Now, with Tesla, it's going to be less about probably what the current data is and more about what is the expectation for the future. Remember, this is one of the things that Wall Street does. It's always about let's get some upgrades. And just before we were coming into this earning season, all of the Wall Street buffins, they were going wild on their expectations moving forward. And if I had an updated chart here, this one from Duality Research, it's looking even more wild. They're actually upgrading on upgrading on upgrading. Have a look here at the latest from uh from Duality Research, which basically shows here the technology price returns versus forward guidance. Look at the forward guidance EPS. It's accelerating an extreme amount. And you might think, well, that's fantastic. Look how great that is. Yeah, that is good. Uh, and of course, you know, generally speaking, they're right uh at a point. And obviously, the question is, where is the top of earnings? As we often say, earnings, earnings, earnings, guys. Could we be heading into this kind of period where everyone gets super excited and then it kind of plateaus and then of course, woo, went so bad. So, yeah, that is the discussion point. Are we accelerating too quickly? Why is this? Of course, we've discussed some of those reasons. It's mostly capex spend. It's mostly of course defense spend, bit of stimulation by governments. And in general, it's kind of like a pseudo, you know, market that's being run on some false pretenses. But that is markets for you. And it often does work this way.
Let's have a look here at Blue Kurdic. One of the explanations is of course that we're currently following a new hardware run or new cycle run, which is the whole WW versus, of course, now the ChatGPT. Will say it looks like chat are falling behind, but plenty of new AI businesses and of course IPO IPO IPO plenty of IPOs coming this year which has got a lot of people excited and often markets will ramp into those off crazy expectations. I like to think if I had something to remember this year in terms of the AI kind of space, the whole Jensen talking about AIs in space, literally was was probably my my read in terms of saying, well, that's I know it's possible, but it seems a little bit peaky at this stage. So, I think we can run a little bit longer. I laugh because I'm just thinking about putting data centers in space and uh some people out there, I know you guys in the comments will be like, "It's real, man. It's real." Yeah, but it's probably not just yet. You know what I'm saying? It's kind of like when everyone was talking about space uh only in 2021 and back then, of course, we rubbished it because I thought that it was unlikely to happen at that stage. And what happened? Stocks went ballistic and then went really, really bad.
Now, why is this happening? Well, one of the examples of why this could be happening is we expected a drop. We probably expected two drops this year, which is the first drop followed by a rally followed by the possibility of a second drop. Now Tom Lee's come out and actually said this is kind of his expectation as well. He's obviously well potentially is following uh something like this the seasonality style charts of midterms. Polycarp FX putting this one out. You can kind of see here that if it is to follow a standard midterm election year then it could be about to get a whole lot more volatile. So I think you got to keep this in the back of your mind and there are a few levels that we'll talk about in a moment here on the charts uh to be watching.
Now on the dollar side, let's get into the charts. Speaking of which, the first up, the US dollar. It actually held a pretty good pattern. Um, this one here is is kind of the common style pattern that you want to see on short time frames for bullish action. Now, why is that? Well, it's got to do with structural base. Got to do with hitting kind of a what I would say is a relatively significant level and then of course, you know, will we manage to move up to the next level of equilibrium somewhere around that 98 kind of 90 zone here on the dollar. Interesting. Is probably going against the general if it's in the press at the moment and the market itself is actually relatively technical. So short time frames may be a little bit more bullish. Obviously the the 4-hour the daily or the daily the weekly they both look a little bit more negative on dollar. So yeah, probably following the trend at this stage in terms of what you'd expect small and large time frame.
S&P on the other hand did start to drop a little bit there. At the time of this recording it's up in after hours. Obviously, it's going to be a minute-by-minute, day-by-day style situation based on the news, but could we be heading towards that most traded level? I just want to kind of show you guys this was a very heavy zone. So, if markets do start to find, you know, big problems, this is going to be where we're looking for dark pools. This is going to be where we're looking for uh I guess correlation on markets should we come down. Now, we mentioned the 4-hour 4-hour 20, excuse me, there just overcoming a little bit of sickness recently. But you can see here that markets themselves US 500 2-hour has come off this level twice, three times and now four times. So no surprise to see a bounce, but the bounce needs to make a higher high so it can kind of, you know, keep climbing that wall of worry. Obviously the bounce initially is what you expect. If it does drop this level though, yeah, there's a little bit of demand here, but really is that kind of opening up the 6,800 floodgates? Well, we'll look at the options market.
So let's take a look at the options market. 7,200 is the most struck level and no surprise the biggest put zone. Yep, 6,800. And that's kind of what we do here on the channel. We like to use the options market uh from Menthal Q here. We like to use, of course, information uh from all different sources so that we can kind of build a story line that usually makes a little bit more sense. In terms of the next 24 hours, there's actually quite a lot of puts sitting now at 7050, 7060, which is right where price is. But you know, as we know, 6,800 comes up quite a lot in terms of the puts as well. And there's heaps of calls at pretty much around 7150. So, it's been a bit tough for it to get through that area. Tesla wise, 400, 400, 400. We'll see how earnings goes. We'll look at the daily 20 in a moment as well for that. And Nvidia, it's just struggling around the 200 call wall. So, that's what I'm saying about exhaustion. You know, the S&P, sure, it's hit a massive call wall, but you know, it's gotten through many of those. I think it's more about the individual stocks and sectors. Semiconductors in particular, some of the data stocks that have gone ballistic and of course Nvidia sitting at 200 as well.
IBIT time. Uh Bitcoin's been doing a little bit better and so has Ethereum on charts. Now 44 is the next big call wall you can see. But each kind of level is becoming important and as we go here uh out a little bit further you see 42, 43, 45 all of these levels have quite a lot of calls on them. So, we are in kind of that positive gamma possibility here for Bitcoin. We'll check out some of the key levels in a moment on the charts.
Now, we mentioned the insanity of car. And the reason I just want to put this back onto the charts just to show you this has happened before. Obviously, we've seen squeezes before. Do you think it's worth this much money? Probably not. But this is what tends to happen. So, we get these huge spikes that come through in the markets. And this is now three weeks of monsters. So when you get three, yeah, I I get a little bit concerned. I think that's three and that is they are outliers. So I would expect some fireworks on this one very, very soon. Probably a good one to watch and understand uh what happens if you're new to these markets.
In regards to high beta, we can see here it's a risk-on market. Very different to where we'd been pretty much all of September to March. It had been more of a sideways market on the risk side and more of a defensive and other rotational market. Now it's been risk-on again and that presents pretty strong action from the markets whether you agree with it or not. The main reason in my opinion is that the markets are sniffing out all sorts of stim which is giving effectively very big earnings revision upgrades plus the tariff stuff refunds, you know, all of that's kind of being a little bit of profit. So uh I guess, you know, that's that's part of it. Uh but yeah, earnings earnings earnings guys, we continue to watch. We'll have a special on Tesla at the end of Wednesday.
Let's have a look here at VIX. You can see VIX didn't quite close above 20, but it's starting to get up a little bit in terms of risk. High yield junk didn't really do much. And US oil did not break through the series of lower highs and lower lows that's currently in there. So, at this stage, oil is at that kind of 88 barrel plus support, which we've seen on the weekly and daily. Uh, but it hasn't managed to change trend towards the upside or anything similar like that.
Let's have a look here at Energy. Now, we did see the number one transaction ever recorded in this area here according to volume leaders and we are at the exact same price. But have we made a higher high yet? No, we have not. Uh, have we seen any change of trend? Not really. Uh, but can it's a little bit encouraging, I guess, for oil traders that that you're getting a bit of a pickup here. Uh, why is that? Well, I think it's because there is still no news about uh anything really happening. I guess it's just um continuing to be a ceasefire at this stage and we'll see how that eventuates.
Semiconductors are exhausted. Now, what I mean by that is that when you put them on certain charts, if you chuck on a bunch of indicators, you're going to get some pretty heavy overboughts. Uh, we're also seeing overboughts in some of the data center stocks. Um, though, if you have a look here at the Cosby, that's been pretty strong, making a higher high. I still think this market is is Yeah, I think someone knows something over here personally, but anyway, we'll see what happens. And this is going to be one of those markets that of course I'm going to have and I'm sure we're all going to talk about a lot our eyes on because uh this in my opinion is the stage, the the the kind of hype stage of the AI run, cuz the data um and the hardware and then we'll see what ends up happening after that. MU also showing signs of exhaustion at the peak. So again, most of those first stocks, they've all kind of worked their way towards the resistance almost instantaneously. And then what we've been seeing is pickups in others. Nvidia's also done the same thing getting in here to the 200 level. Now, if you look at the likes of something like a software, you can see here it also just tapped into that resistance as well last 24 hours, which is going to be where some people, you know, look at potentially taking some of their profits if they've been buying it or they might be just looking at basically selling that area or bears might be trying to go against it here. Is this a W off pattern? I guess we'll find out soon if we do manage to close above this. But yeah, it's reached that area. So, I guess um pretty good stuff there from the software.
Now on to Tesla. Daily 20 on the way down. Could it be daily 20 finds the support and it buys? Certainly an interesting level. Uh, other zones as well of interest around that 440 zone, the most traded zone on the way uh down. So again, when markets kind of come out with announcements, often they'll go towards key levels. Could this be what happens? Uh, it's going to be a pretty interesting 24 hours. I think Tesla's going to do okay maybe on the shipments, but it might be a struggle on what is the future, what is the the vision and does the market want to upgrade all the stock based on that. Okay, we'll find out soon, I guess. What do you guys think in the comments down below?
When we come over to gold, you can see here it's gone below the trend line and then it's rallied back up to the trend line at this stage coming closer to that most traded area. So, I think the 4,800 level will be an interesting one for gold. It did drop the level. In the previous video, we talked about how silver has been bought by central banks. Just remember that doesn't instantly hit price or anything like that. But it was interesting to see that silver's being absolutely purchased out of control by China. Um, I'm sure there's reasons behind this one. And then of course you can see here silver also dropped the level. But if we notice, and I'm sure you guys notice this straight away, if you chuck a quick trend line through the back, um, it's pretty much going to hold most people's trend lines. So, series of higher highs, higher lows, short time frame. You can kind of see again if it rallies back into this point here, this is where the question mark is going to be. Very similar to gold. They're both actually weakened. Uh, and small time frames are now actually more bearish than bullish on those two. High time frames obviously still in that series of higher highs, high lows.
What's going on with Chinese stocks? Down a little bit here in the session. They're down 1.33. Still holding above. Levels to watch in the future. Something around 257 could be a level to watch. And again, it's another market that's I think it look good looks good on recovery, but um it hasn't actually like ripped as much as maybe the US market has with the semiconductors.
Ethereum, meanwhile, well, it's just kind of at those highs. Uh, it hasn't done as much as you would expect, but Bitcoin did make it towards 77. So, it's trying right now. It's doing a series of higher highs and higher lows. That's encouraging. Are we going to break 79? If we do, could we be going to 89? There's very little kind of supply on the left-hand side there. And that's encouraging, I guess, for Bitcoin holders because we've also seen some massive accumulation zones based on at least the COT reports and some of the data that we've been uh getting recently. So, yeah, actually encouraging. As we've said, it's a great level down here. Is this also going to get rid of all the bears that are saying that this could be the beginning of a flag bust? So obviously similar to last time where we get that false rally and then boom back down. Well, that will take a lower low. So at this point, what do we know? Series of higher highs and higher lows and as we often say, it's better to react in these situations than predict. So markets are looking a little bit better than they are in terms of looking worse.
To summarize for today guys, I guess the markets are exhausted on some of the most important stocks, at least based on the technical metrics. And of course, we always are continuing to see some weakening here in the macro story lines. Why are the markets so bullish? In my opinion, it's the underlying earnings. And the markets love a good story. So they go and they revise. And the buffins and the AI and the robots, they all go off into the future and say, "Wow, imagine this multiplied by this that multiplies by this that multiplies by this. Oh, it's massive." And then of course they get very excited. So that's one of the reasons. And of course, if we have if this is peak earnings, then we'll probably know about it next time. But so far, earnings are holding up. Big tech next week. That's going to be a big question mark as well. But so far, yeah, everyone's spending all their money. Um, they're all starting to write debt. And of course, deregulation continues as well in many different spaces. And that helps to of course keep this thing alive for now. Could we be pulling back? If we do, are we going to go to that most traded zone, the 6850 kind of area on the S&P? Certainly one to watch. 4-hour two uh two-hour 50 moving average as well, very interesting area and in general, remember there's another opportunity all the time, guys. Abundance mindset, something we believe here in the channel and you know, I'm very passionate about that kind of idea. Check us out on X also if you're interested. Sign up for our free newsletter, one institutional insight, totally free every week. Links in the description down below. Thanks so much guys. Bye for now.