Transcription
Bitcoin is pulling back after the first comments from the new Fed chair spark some volatility across risk assets, with US markets close tomorrow for the holiday. Traders are going to be looking ahead to the weekend where liquidity can thin out and volatility can increase. So, the big question is, can Bitcoin hold these key support levels and continue its recent momentum, or are we setting up for a deeper retracement before the next leg higher?
In today's video, we're going to break down the critical levels I'm watching, what the charts are signaling, and where the best opportunities may be heading into the weekend. My name is Paul Samson. Welcome back to Data Dash.
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Now, let's jump into the charts. All right, folks. Bitcoin has, uh, started off the week really, this nice strong push, right? This was around when we started on Monday, got a nice little push up to about 67,200, and so far cooling off. You'll note that I have a certain area basically highlighted where we are actually running into right now. Uh, these are what I call the weekly targets, uh, of each week that I look for, uh, based on range data. Again, this is more of a shorter time frame outlook here. Obviously, on our Monday videos, we look for a little bit more simplistic, high-level macro view. This is going to get into a little bit more of just the more short-term volatility, all these little, you know, mini swings and all this good stuff, and where the current low-key, where the current, you know, and where the current local levels or lines in the sand, I guess you would say, remain.
Uh, so as we're walking into the weekend, again, tomorrow is closed as far as the stock market goes. Obviously, crypto is still going to be open and and running a muck. Uh, will we get any type of sizable move is the question. Uh, at times it can be. More times than not though, honestly, like recently when we've had just kind of, uh, a Friday specifically, if it's a Monday where we have a closure, sometimes the crypto market gets a little wonky. But I've noticed that on the Friday ones, uh, not too much occurs. Uh, but yet to be seen, right? Just something to keep in mind. In general, the volume may be a little bit lower tomorrow, but still, you know, Bitcoin is Bitcoin. So, anyways, we are coming into again, we've hit two weekly targets that were very likely to be met this week. Okay. Even when we get the nice pushes up from this region here, uh, for me, I'm always going to be looking for a mean reversion. And that's all this is. Again, these are, uh, a series of volume targets as well as high time frame averages. So, very much like a moving average. Uh, this is essentially the 7-day non-moving average from last week, right? So, uh, very likely we come and tag it. We have, we're sitting in that region right now. And if I had to give a line in the sand.
All right. So, realistically, this is a region that so far could be, you know, reactive as a, as a big support. Don't love that it's coming in on a Friday at this point because again, we may just kind of sit and root around this region before we get any type of next move. But we are still looking to see if we can hold this region. Now, very locally here, since we've made that next attempt at the lows a couple days ago, right back on the 5th, so about two weeks ago now, which is crazy. It's already been that long. Uh, doesn't seem like it. We've put in a series again of higher highs, higher low, higher highs. Now, potentially a higher low in here, and it can even come all the way back down and as long as it's above, right, this region, uh, to still put in yet again another higher low. Realistically, if we were to lose this region here and start making our ways back down here, I mean, I would imagine we're probably going to come and take lows and and head lower at that point, right? So, would not be the best thing to see in, in the sense of that. But until that happens, two things that I like to, you know, really hammer on right now is as long as we're above this February low, a little mixture here between high time frame and low time frame, we've essentially come down and taken out that low right here. And that is a liquidity sweep and generally leads to a sizable move to the upside. All right.
Now, it has been about two weeks and granted, we have been putting in a decent little, you know, amount of moves here. It's not like we've just been sitting right at that low for two weeks straight, consolidating. And, you know, usually that would actually lead to more of a, a move lower, but so far we've actually held that pretty well. So, as long as we're above this February low, all right, uh, nothing is really broken here in the sense of Bitcoin currently. We've taken out the low, you know, we have time right now that we're kind of just building upon that right here. And as long as we are living above this region, there's no reason not to assume we get a little bit more upside here. Okay. Very same thing happened over here just last year. All right. This is a move we see time and time again. Not to even like make it a fractal or take this and expect all-time highs for it, but I just want to point out how we see the same type of movement, right? You get this move up, you come down, you take out that low daily time frame. By the way, we spent about 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 days basically in a small uptrend. Okay. It wasn't, wasn't crazy that we, you know, didn't just get a huge move off of that, but within 14 days, we bursted up from about 74 to 86 and really like held that region pretty well. So, I just wanted to highlight a very similar setup. Okay. So, as long as we didn't lose that low, we were looking higher. Same, same rule applies here. Okay.
Now, that's a little bit more in the higher time frame idea. So, what Bitcoin could be doing here is realistically running last week's range. All right. So, this is again, what I look for, uh, each and every week. Very relevant to see the previous sessions as far as range data goes. Uh, last week's range, very relevant this week, so on and so forth with a daily range, monthly range, so on and so right. Uh, so, in this case, we started off the week, like I said, big burst, nice little run up here, and then we started to kind of come back and lose some of these areas. Okay. Uh, at that point, we have at least two weekly targets to be aware of that we're likely going to come down and meet, uh, which we have now met both of them and from this area as well. Now we have some, some work to do, right? Because you need to get back above previous week high for any type of sizable upside from that point. Otherwise, we're looking to come down to our weekly targets. And now, if we had to throw a line in the sand on where we are right this moment, uh, again, very short-term, uh, outlook here is that if we lose that region or the level that we're at right now for a substantial, I'd say, 4-hour period, you know, to start, uh, then we're looking for a range rotation. All right. Meaning that we've entered last week's range, we are likely to run it down to the low side. All right. Uh, at that point, again, probably going to come down and make a new low at that level. And then we have to see how things kind of shape up at that point. So, realistically, I would say this box is the current key as far as our more short-term outlook goes. If we start closing down below where we are right now, uh, more downside can be expected. If we want to see any more sizable upside from where we are right this moment, we want to get back above that 64,000 weekly average there. Right? So, uh, that is really, uh, as simple as we can do it, right? We've come down and met the box of the week. Uh, now we want to see the reaction as we're here, which is still looking relatively weak as we speak. Uh, so more downside should be anticipated if we start closing down below 633.
All right, if you enjoy this style content, be sure to like and subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already. I'll see you all in the next video. Thank you all so much for watching. Until then, everybody, cheers.