Transcription
San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, divisional round of the playoffs. Everything you need to know in 15 minutes.
If you've never been here before, welcome. My name is Max. I make these for every playoff game to give you a unique edge looking at run scheme metrics, coverage data, and overall trends nobody talks about because it relates to the scheme behind the game instead of just the numbers you see on the screen. Without further ado, let's get into this breakdown.
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Let's talk 49ers defense. In terms of data outliers, they're allowing the ninth most wide receiver receptions in the league regular season and the second most running back receptions in the league in the regular season. So, when teams throw, it's receiver, it's running back, and they're having success. They're allowing the 10th most pass yards per game in the entire NFL. That includes the playoffs.
In terms of coverage data, they are top 10 in zone coverage rate, but it's middlefield closed heavy. So, they'll play some man, some cover one. When they play zone, a lot of cover three. They're targeted in the slot at a top 10 rate and inline tight end and running back positions at a top 10 rate. I have those separate because Sam Darnold likes to throw to wide receivers. And it's important to note the slot routes for the Seattle Seahawks after the Rasheed Shahed trade.
So to put it into perspective for you guys, the Seattle Seahawks in terms of snap counts, how often they're using certain receivers, it's pretty different after the Rashid Shahid trade. So when you go look first half of the season really obviously Tory Horton got hurt and transparently was a decentsized reason they made the move for Rasheed Shahed. It was the cup show when Shahed made his debut in week t week 10. Cody White was also playing a little bit more. He's kind of fizzled out. Derrick Young is a guy who showed up on a couple of these route numbers, um, target percentage things. I'm not putting too much stock into him, but as the year went on, they also started using a little bit more two tight end step, right? Elijah Royo obviously not playing. Eric Sawert playing a little bit more though. That's super important to note.
But past Rasheed Shahid as soon as he started playing 50% more of snaps outside of that week 17 game against the Rams which crazy don't really know why he didn't play I believe it was the Rams week 17 but in week 17 he's been playing like 50% of snaps. In terms of slot routes though Cooper Cup has been able to transition to the main slot wide receiver. Prior to the trade it was JSN. After the trade Cooper Cup was able to kind of slide in and be that slot guy.
In terms of targets per route run from the slot though, it's Kenneth Walker. It's not a ton of targets. He's not running a ton of routes, but he's getting some designed touches from the slot in empty things like that. Then it's JSM, then it's up against zone specifically. This is crazy. I talk about this all the time. You rarely see a true number one wide receivers's target rate go up against zone, but JSN does. Kenneth Walker's target rate doubles. Super important to note, and we'll talk about the past matchup with Kenneth Walker here in a minute, but JSN's target rate goes up and then against middlefield closed, when you got a single high safety shocker, you're taking shots to your number one wide receiver on the outside. JSN is the most frequently targeted, the most explosive. You name it, it's the JSN show and middlefield closed.
In terms of the run scheme metrics, the Seahawks are very zoneheavy. They're top 10 in zone rate and they're above average in efficiency but bottom five in success rate which is a weird combo because that means you're banking on explosive runs for success. I saw a stat before we even started this breakdown saying the uh Seahawks are one of the few teams that actually has a negative EPA per rush which is kind of like doesn't happen very often. And on the other side, the Ners are average in terms of explosive run percentage, but they're bottom three in zone efficiency and allowing the highest zone success rate in the league.
This is a good transition to talk about the last time these two teams played where Kenneth Walker had a ton of success on the ground. You go back to the week one matchup, you look at the Seahawk stats, you're like, "Yeah, Zack Charbanet didn't even crack 50 yards. Kenneth Walker carried the ball 10 times for 20 yards." Keep in mind Nick Bosa, Fred Warner on the field for this game. Week 18, those guys were not on the field.
Now, the elephant in the room here defensively, Fred Warner, does he play? I personally don't think so, but I'm not ruling it out. The season's on the line. It's a playoff game. If he can, he will. But the week one matchup and the week 18 matchup are wildly different in terms of who's on the field. However, the two guys to watch are pretty much the same. JSN obviously had a huge game in week one, nine for 24, didn't score, but 13 targets. And then in week 18, he had a solid game as well. But week 18, guys, the second highest target getter receiver was Kenneth Walker, and he was tied with another running back in Zack Charbanet. Like I talked about, Sam Darnold doesn't throw to the running back position at a wildly high rate, but the Niners allow targets there at a high rate, and they're also allowing for a lot of running back receiving production. It's not a coincidence that in this week 18 game it was Kenneth Walker as the number two wide receiver. It's not a coincidence that in the other week 18 game Kenneth Walker was again tied second most targets with Cooper Cup. He caught three balls. It's not a coincidence that that's where the ball's going. Especially when they're sitting back in zone cover three. If the NerS can keep them behind the chains, they're going to keep sitting back in cover three and basically keep everything in front of them. I really do like Kenneth Walker to catch some passes. even Zack Sharon and McKenneth Walker more specifically to catch some passes in this matchup. [snorts]
The big key here though for the Seahawks offense is the giveaways. I'm not sure if you guys know this, but you look at turnover differential across the NFL and the Seahawks are solid. Honestly, probably not better than you think. They're almost even, right? They're minus three in terms of turnover differential. They're obviously forcing a lot of takeaways, right? You can see right here. Oh, we missed them. Where' they go? There we go. 25 total takeaways. That's top 10 in the NFL behind only what, five, six teams. They take the ball away a lot. Their defense is very good. We'll talk about them in a minute. But I'm not sure if you guys know that this team leads the NFL in total fumbles and is second in the NFL in total giveaways. It's really interesting to know that the Seattle Seahawks do not hold on to the ball like what are they 14 and three? A 14-3 number one seed would. They're fine in the turnover differential. Obviously, you don't want to be negative. And I'm not saying the 49ers are much better. You look at the differential here. The Niners are worse. They're minus six in the turnover differential, but if the NerS can take care of the football, they have an opportunity to take the ball away from Seattle, who's giving it away more than twice a game, which is cra uh not more than twice a game, almost twice a game, sorry, almost twice a game, which is crazy. That's a huge number and it's a huge thing to watch here. Kenneth Walker, JSN, the players to watch.
The Seahawks defense in terms of data outliers, they are allowing the most running back receptions in the league and the fifth most tight end receptions in the league. On the ground, they're awesome. Fewest yards per carry, second fewest rush yards per game. You go look at some of the game logs against the Seattle Seahawks, especially that McAffrey game to end the year. I mean, they'd shut him down, right? Eight for 23, not even giving him chances. Rico Dowel doesn't crack 60. I don't believe they've allowed a 100 yard rusher. Yeah, they have not allowed a 100red-yard rusher this season. The highest rushing total will have been this 91 from Kairen Williams in week 11. They've been awesome against the ground and it's not like they're playing slouches, right? Kairen Williams touching the ball 23 times, only 70 yards. Jordan Taylor touching the ball 25 times. Grand, that was Philip Rivers debut. They kind of sold out to stop the run. 87 yards. Bejian 20 for 86. Like they shut people down on the ground. They shut people down. Even the beginning of the year when they're playing McAffrey 22 for 69. Nothing for Chimera when he was healthy. nothing for a Travis TM when he was getting touches. Like they shut people down on the ground, but McAffrey to me still is the biggest factor here [snorts] because of the running back receiving production.
They're also top 10 in zone coverage rate, but they're not middlefield closed heavy. They're middlefield open heavy. It's exactly what it sounds like. Cover two, cover four, like safeties will be in the middle of the field leaving it open, right? They'll be on each side, whatever the coverage may be. They're targeted out of the back field at the highest rate in the league. It makes a lot of sense. They're giving up the most running back receptions. That is going to be a key part, especially when you consider Perty's top two in running back target rate and in line tight end target rate and he barely throws to the outside of the slot.
Now, Demarcus Robinson at 100 yards last week kind of balanced in terms of where he ran his routes from. Ricky Perscol is the big one here though because Persol has been running routes from the slot, he could step in and be the guy. I think if Pursol plays, Robinson probably goes into the slot a little bit more, which again is important to note because the Seattle Seahawks defense will tend to be more susceptible on the outside than in the slot. But it is important to note that if somebody were to step in, I'd be looking at the outside guys, Jawan Jennings. You go look at the past games. Again, it's nothing super crazy. But when the Niners were healthy, oh, this is a week 18 game. When the Niners were healthy week one, and truly had their pass catchers, they had multiple wide receivers out there. Ricky Brcol was the leading receiver. Now, this again was a balanced approach from the slot from out wide, but they had multiple wide receivers out there that could have participated in inside and outside routes and Pursol was able to get a balanced approach. I like him if he plays in this game because of the pass production.
Then you go look at the week 18 numbers, guys. It was bad. Like Jawan Jennings had 35 yards. He had six targets. KD and McAffrey were tied with the most targets in week 18. The reality is the Seahawks who play a ton of his own would have fed into a very good George KD matchup. He had the highest target percentage against zone. Then it was CMC. Then it was pursol which is why we're talking about him. But behind those three guys is Jake Tunches. I don't want to just throw him to the side without KD. He stepped up. You go look at some of the game logs for the ners. He is a guy that I think can make a legitimate impact in this game. Granted, when he had to step up without KD, it was when M. Jones was playing quarterback for the most part. For the most part. But these couple games where Pertie was back. I believe the Arizona game was per it was either Arizona or Carolina was Pertie's first game back. But 6 for 78, 4 for 67, 8 for 88, 7 for 115. Those are the production numbers you have for George KD when Pertie is in there. When you look at Jake Tundas though, he's barely barely barely producing with KD and then without. 358 a touchdown. Scored against Seattle week one 7 for 41 a touchdown. six for 58 and then KD doesn't play in week 17 versus Chicago. Seven for 60. It it does matter if KD's out there. KD's an awesome tight end, but it almost doesn't matter who's out there in terms of production and targets because Perie just loves to throw to the spot so much. So Jake Tundes to me is the biggest X factor in this game, especially when you look at middlefield open. It's Jennings one, KD two who's out and then it's Tund. This is a guy who has a good coverage matchup. Again, Seahawks are allowing the fifth most tight end receptions in the league. To me, this is a big spot for him.
In terms of the run scheme metrics, 49ers very zone heavy. They're top three in rate. They stink end zone. Now, they've been running better as of late, and I made note of this prior to the Eagles game. They have absolutely been running better as of late. McAffrey is two best or two of his three best efficiency games walking into that Seattle matchup. But 15 for 48, I know the Eagles run defense is solid, but 15 for 48, I can't get behind that and continue to lean into it. Especially when you look at this Seattle run defense who has been awesome against the run. Top five defensively in zone efficiency allowed and success rate too. Like I can't see a big game for McAffrey on the ground. You go look at the past two games 3.1 yards per carry and then week 18 2.9 yards per carry. It's going to have to be the McAffrey show through the air in terms of pass matchup over performers. Obviously McAffrey did have that big receiving game in week one where he had nine for 73 was targeted 10 times. crazy. Eight yards a catch, but 73 yards [snorts] was nuts. But week 18, there was nobody really. To me, it has to be Jake Tundra to step up. It has to be Christian McCaffrey. But if I'm being fully transparent with you guys, I I don't think the Niners have the guys. To me, Philly, who's been struggling offensively, is a different story than the Juggernaut Seahawks off a buy. I don't know if they're 100% the the number one scoring defense. They were prior to the Texans Steelers game. and the Texas might have leap frogged them after that, but top two scoring defense in the league at home off a buy. As healthy as they've been, I still do think Seattle wins this game. It's been an awesome story for the NerS this year, but I think Grant Con said it at the end of the Seahawks 49ers game in week 18, 49ers are a hell of a story. Seahawks are a hell of a football team. I think Seattle wins this one.
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