Trump Threatens Iran as US Loses Hormuz | Tarik Cyril Amar

Hello ladies and gentlemen, and welcome again to Syrian analysis. I'm your host, Kalmasan. Thank you very much for tuning in to at least my favorite show of this week, Cold War 2.0, with our dear friend Tar Chamar.

Today, we're going to walk through several important articles and topics related to Iran, Germany's support of Israel, and, uh, also some of the advertisements that I personally saw in Germany, at least, that the EU is promoting itself as the champion of, uh, freedom of speech, which is very, very interesting. And at the same time, they're trying to, uh, it, it seems that they're, I mean, one of the European Union countries is Germany, and the government is trying to, uh, suppress one of the political parties here. So, we're going to work through that. And one of the German politicians says that we have to sacrifice our souls, like Germans should go and die for Israel. Like, I found several interesting things for you guys today, and we're going to discuss them also with Tavi. How are you doing this week, Tariq?

>> I'm fine, thank you. Kok, how are you?

>> I'm good. I'm following the, uh, contradictory statements of Donald Trump. Uh, as usual, every week we have a, a cocktail of statements. I truly don't know which one I should first focus on. Uh, however, one of the articles in MSNBC, it says, uh, Trump's, uh, abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies. So, he's receiving some backlash from allies. President Donald Trump's, uh, abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the US military's ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation. And this is according to two US officials. They have spoken to the MSN, or NBC News, excuse me. Trump surprised, uh, Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the kingdom informed the US it would not allow the US military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh, or fly through Saudi airspace to support the efforts.

Now, I, I wanted to link this to, let's say, more geopolitical context, and then I found this, uh, second article in Foreign Affairs. The second one says, uh, the title, "The End of the Axis of Abraham," or they mean the Abraham Accord axis of Abraham Accords. Um, the article says, "When the US and Israel began the war on Iran on February 28, a war that Gulf governments had lobbied against, Iran retaliated by striking Gulf Arab states' airports, seaports, oil installations, and desalination plants. Although US forces helped intercept some attacks on the Gulf Arab states, damage was done to the region's reputation as a safe haven for global business, which no doubt was the Iranians, the Iran's intention. And Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, fully blocking the exports of Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and impeding those of Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE."

Now, the current war in Iran has made it clear that Israel's aspirations of regional dominance put the Gulf in harm's way. Israel is too willing to wage war preemptively to get what it wants and too comfortable disregarding the interests of neighboring countries. Many Gulf leaders are now determined to find alternative ways to protect themselves. It won't be easy to create a new regional order, but Gulf leaders have already started diversifying their arms, arms suppliers, and security partnerships to have a greater say over what happened to them. They will also need to coordinate better among themselves, both militarily and diplomatically.

I think there are two things that I would like to ask here. The first thing is, Israel acting for its own interests is common sense. It's something that every reasonable person and official knew in the region. But some of the Gulf monarchies, they have, um, probably changed course and they wanted to join this Abraham new security architecture in the region under which Israel would have been, or would have become, the dominant player anyways. So, the, this talk about that the Abraham Accords would have probably just established a regional order without Israeli dominance, it's a myth from the beginning. Now they are realizing it after the Iranian retaliation against them. But in your mind, do you see that, first, this is just a comment? And the second one is, do you see that there is any alternative security architecture these Persian Gulf monarchies could join anyway? I don't see that there is an established security architecture or something that they could independently build in the region to protect themselves to begin with. It seems like they have to always rely on other outside powers and other architectures to protect their own monarchies.

Well, I mean, look, um, I think you're absolutely right, right, about the absurdity of trying to make states normalize with Israel, right? Because this is what the Abraham Accord, um, scheme was supposed to do. That, that was the official line, right?

>> Yes.

>> And the problem is, you cannot have normality. Normalization is about normality, right?

>> With a psychopath serial killer.

>> No, I, I mean this quite literally. You, you can't have a normal relationship with Israel. It's simply impossible. Or, let me put it differently. Look, we, we all know the old sort of gangster mafia movies out of Hollywood where there are different types, right? There is a Tony Soprano type who is potentially very brutal but is basically rational and sometimes even you can talk with this person, right, as long as you do what he wants. But then when the Tony Soprano type has the Joe Pesci type, you know, Joe Pesci, who always plays the loose gun, he is the sadist, the one who puts people's heads, you know, into these vices and smashes them just for fun, or had, or, or kicks, or beats with baseball bats somebody to death just because he looked at him the wrong way in the bar, right? So the US, before Trump, if Trump, everything is different again, but before Trump, you could say that the US was Tony Soprano.

>> Yes.

>> Very nasty to have to deal with because you're still dealing with a mafia guy who's capable of great brutality and always looks out for himself first. That's the US. But the sidekick Joe Pesci, the completely loose gun, psychopath, sociopath, sadistic serial killer, has always been Israel. And basically, the Abraham Accords is, is the US going to all these poor neighbors of Israel, Joe Pesci, right, the sadistic serial killer, and saying, "Hey, can't you have normality with you?" Can't you, right? And then you get Trump, and under Trump, everything becomes, as so often we have to give him that credit, because suddenly it turns out that not only is Joe Pesci, the sadistic serial killer, the sidekick, he actually runs the show, right? So what normalization, right? And the, the next step is that it turns out, and this is, of course, what never, what must never happen to gangsters. It turns out they're actually also much weaker than they pretend to be.

>> Because they were trying to make an example of Iran, and Iran has defeated them.

>> Right? So all of this comes together and means that this whole Abraham Accord thing doesn't make any sense. It has never made sense, actually. And we are setting aside the fact that, of course, there was always a scheme to sell out the Palestinians, right? And everybody else who is in Israel's crosshairs to Israel and the US. But here's the other thing. What's the alternative, right? A security architecture. Now, the Arab Accords were not really the security architecture. The point is, the security architecture consisted of these multiple agreements, and they're all different, or mostly different, that the United States had individually, has individually with these Gulf countries. So they're different for Bahrain, with the Fifth Fleet. They're different for Oman. They're different for Saudi Arabia. And some of them, I think three of them have something like, with the cherry on top, which is major non-NATO ally, or partner, or something.

>> Yes.

>> But here is the bottom line. None of these agreements, not a single one, even in theory, even on paper, constitute a clear obligation that the United States must help. They don't. None of them. And that is, of course, very much done on purpose.

>> Yes.

>> Now, I'm not implying that the United States would help its NATO partners. I'm not implying that. I think NATO is hollow as well. But what these Gulf states have cumulatively is even more hollow than the whole NATO structure, if you want. Now, here's the problem. Iran has just called the bluff.

>> We now know, and the Americans have admitted it. I think there was a big piece in the Washington Post or something. We now know that the, that the Iranians have been incredibly effective at hitting American bases in the region.

>> Mhm.

>> They may not have killed a lot of people, but that's not so important because unlike Israel and the US, the Iranians don't win by just massacring people. That's actually the, apparently, they don't need to do that. But they have really incapacitated a large chunk of American infrastructure, more than the Americans have ever admitted, and it's coming out now. By that, they have proven to the Gulf States that in this region, Iran is more powerful than America. Right.

So the article you quoted, I know I'm taking a leap, but the article that you talked about in Foreign Affairs, I've read it too. Right. I found it very funny.

>> Because it is a bit like what happens in Europe now. There is one thing that is obvious that these guys should do, and the article never mentions it. It sort of glances at it like in passing, but it never even says it. The obvious thing is, if they want to be safer, to actually build a structure with Iran inside.

>> Oh.

>> Gulf states. Why is it that only one of the sides of the Gulf is considered the Gulf States? You want to see the biggest Gulf state of them all? That's actually Iran. Iran is the biggest Gulf state of them all. Right? So even if you go by nominalism, right, just the terms, you want to build something about Gulf security, maybe you talk to everyone who lives around the Gulf, like those guys to the north with the enormous Gulf coastline who have proven they can control the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe you would like to talk to them. Who knows?

>> But once, once you've learned that your so-called American protectors are good for nothing, and that they will always prefer Israel, that in fact, Israel gives them orders now to start a war in your region that is heavily damaging to you?

>> Yes.

>> What holds you back? What holds you back? Are, are you worried that Israel is not going to be happy? And so what? You need happy Israel. Are you worried the Americans are not going to be happy? What? The Americans who just have proven they won't and they can't help you when it counts, right? You, you want to antagonize those? Maybe you should. Maybe it's time to talk to Iran. And I'm saying it reminds me of Europe right now, NATO, EU Europe, because again, we have a taboo, at least in Germany. The thing we need to talk about in terms of our security is actually agreeing with Russia on something. It's Russia. Well, if you want to build European security, maybe you integrate the large chunk of Europe that is actually the center, politically, demographically, of Russia. Maybe that would help, right?

>> Yes, TK. Uh, I was, I was checking the map the other day, and of course, everybody knows the importance of the region. It's not like a discovery, but imagine this. This region has the Strait of Hormuz.

>> It has Bab el-Mandeb, which means the near Yemen.

>> And it has the Suez Canal.

>> Yes.

>> And it has trillions and trillions of dollars worth of fuel and liquefied natural gas, and name it. And all the false and forced wars, and all the earth minerals. And just imagine for a second, if Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and, um, Iran, I'm not saying coming into, uh, making a defense pact, only getting along together, and using the leverage they have in this region, how important West Asia would become, how relevant this region would become. And that's why for 100 years, you have puppets after puppets after puppets being installed in these countries, including after the so-called Arab Spring. This region, like people call it, it's a cursed region. It is cursed because of all the, uh, massive wealth. It is not cursed. I'm saying no.

>> But the massive wealth, this massive wealth and the geopolitical importance mean that outside powers will compete and they will try to control.

>> Cursing the outside, keep this region down, you know. But I'm just saying, imagine how this, this region is more important than Europe. It's wealthier than Europe. They can become more relevant. And what you're mentioning here, look to the east. Look at Iran, Saudis, Emirates, Bahrainis, Qataris, and all the rest. Look to the east. Look to Iran and make, make peace. We're not saying become one. Don't make federalism. Don't become one country. But, uh, try to use the leverage you have for the sake of the region. But seeing Iran as the enemy, meanwhile, you have bases from 12, 13,000 kilometers away on your soil, it gives the indication to me that you are not free. You're not free in your own country.

And in this case, the Emirates are doubling down on this case. It's, it's for me, it looks like a little bit absurd that the Emirates are the most loyal, um, allies of Zionist Israel in this case. And the Iranians, it seems, we don't know yet if this was, um, um, how to say it, was a false flag attack or it was, uh, carried out by the Iranians. But something important happened this week, and this was explained, um, I have forgotten his name, um, it's a, it's a Latin name. This is on RT, but it is, uh, explaining, uh, the importance of the Iran sanctions. Excuse me. So what happened is, we have the Habshan pipeline, basically, which, which circumvents it goes to Fujairah and circumvents the Strait of Hormuz. And what the Iranians have done here is basically they have, uh, extended the, the range of the blockade. I will just show you guys this video for us to understand what happened after the Emirates' decision to export its, uh, also, uh, fuel through Fujairah.

What we wanted to do was show you the expansion of the new Strait of Hormuz area, as it's now being, um, as it's now being contained by the Iranians. For them, this is, this is pivotal, right? Uh, this is their ace in the hole. They have control of the Persian Gulf. And now, because of what they say are the United States' actions, they've actually expanded the, uh, control of the Persian Gulf. And there's also a tactical reason why they did this. I, I want to show you something. Now, see that city there, Fujairah? That's where one of the main oil fields is for the UAE. Now, you see that black line that's going from there all the way to there? See that black line? That is an oil pipeline. And that pipeline essentially is the UAE's way of getting oil out without having to worry about traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, because the exit for that pipeline was outside of the Strait of Hormuz. So what the Iranians have now done is they've expanded the Strait of Hormuz area that they are in control of to go beyond the point where Fujairah is. And that's extremely significant because it means now that they control even more of the output of the hydrocarbons, the oil, the LNG, the fertilizer, all the stuff that's coming out of this region, and most particularly the most important region of all, which is the UAE. So that's what they're doing. On top of that, by the way, they're using drones and missiles. Immediately when they heard Mr. Trump announce what he was doing with, what is it again? Project Freedom. Uh, they decided they were going to do what they had threatened to do all along, and that is use their missiles to take out whatever's there that's trying to enforce this for the United States. Modern warfare topic has become, um, really interesting when you see in the past, you really needed to have all these warships and mines and, and the fleets in order to close a strait like the one you have now. You don't need all these things. You need a drone, a few hundred bucks of drone, basically, to disrupt this. Because what the Emirates were trying to do, they said, "We will reserve from OPEC and we will export our oil through the Fujairah port. We will circumvent the Strait of Hormuz." And whether the Iranians have done it or not, I still, I'm not, still, I'm still not sure because the Iranians say, "We are not the ones who carried out." We don't know. I'm not adopting their position. Um, but it looks like the Iranians are capable of continuing this blockade for an infinite time, indefinite time, for, for now, through not so complicated means. To say, look, we know that, um, the, uh, UAE has received, um, massive support from Israel during this war, before as well, but during this war, very concretely, especially in the area of air defense, including Iron Dome, but also other systems like Iron Beam.

Um, the upshot of all of this is that that is already part of the tit for tat. Um, because at the same time, we also know that when you actually break down where Iran was hitting on the other side of the Gulf, the UAE is by far the most saturated area. So a lot of the Iranian strikes across the Gulf actually targeted the UAE. And I would say for good reason, for compelling reasons, right? Nobody can hold that against the Iranians because the UAE, this isn't, look, a lot of people know this, but let's just, let's just also repeat it. The UAE hasn't behaved strangely just now. This is a very corrupt, very odd state, or a federation of states officially, that has always been, or for a long time been already, Israel's staging post of the worst sort. And that has gone so far that even the relationship between the UAE and the Saudis is very fraught by now. Right.

>> Yes.

>> The leader of the UAE, MBZ, Muhammad bin Zayed, I think, is perhaps the single worst person in the Gulf, right? That, that is a horrific person who has his paw prints all over the region, and usually in horrific ways, right? A lot of people have died because of this guy.

>> Yes.

>> He's been trained, of course, in Britain, right? Scottish private school and I think Sandhurst after that, right, as you would. So the UAE is a very strange thing, and a very vile one at this point. I'm sorry I have to be so blunt.

>> And the Iranian attacks on it have had effects that go far beyond actually just, you know, just the blockade.

>> Yeah.

>> We can see it in real estate deals. We can see it in what happened to their major hotels. We can see it in what happened on their two major stock markets. They are really suffering, right?

>> So when they went, when they abandoned OPEC with a sort of striking at Saudi Arabia at the same time, and getting even closer to Trump's USA and Netanyahu's Israel.

>> Yes.

>> I, it's often discussed as if they were acting just according to their own strategic master plan, as if they're like in control of everything. No, they're not. They're under great pressure because they've gotten a lot of pressure from Iran.

>> And when you look at this whole Fujairah pipeline system, I mean, Sanchez is totally right. If Iran expands the area it controls on the waterway, right, that's of course very bad for the UAE. But the whole system is within range of the Iranians. All of it. And these are pipelines. This is extremely vulnerable stuff. Ask the Germans. It can be blown up. So, you know, I mean, the UAE is very strange in that it's a weird mixture of great aggressiveness and has been for many years, but it's also pretty fragile. I'm always looking at them and like, how, how long do you think this is going to work? What I find very, very telling, I find this so funny. Apparently, the Iranians have written on one of the rockets that they aimed at them.

>> Yes.

>> Literally, have you seen this? It's in Arabic, but I've seen the translation. "Habibi, habibi, once the Americans leave, the two of us will be alone. And habibi, come to Dubai."

>> Yeah.

>> So, I don't think the UAE is in a good place. I think it's a bit of a forward escape that they're trying, right, to get very aggressively out of the hole that they have dug for themselves because, look, the UAE's policy would have worked if the Americans and the Israelis had won this war, and they are together with the Israelis and the Americans on the losing side. That's what they have to manage right now, I think.

>> Yes. Um, you know, last time we disagreed with, uh, Norman Finkelstein about, uh, I, I now, my memory has gone. I don't know what it was exactly. Yeah, it was about the, the war in Iran. But he, he said something about the Emirates in this case, if you remember this clip.

>> "The most brain-dead people, by the way, in the Arab world are definitely the Emiratis. They were brain-dead."

>> Wow.

>> You hold on, by the way. Ever listen to talk?

>> I mean, it sounds, I don't know.

>> He said it to this guy.

>> Great. I love it.

>> This guy, this guy lives, by the way, in the Emirates.

>> I know.

>> And the moment he said, "The most dangerous," something people are saying, "What? What? I'm in trouble."

Let me tell you something. Let me tell you something. Speaking of, uh, danger, Tavi, have you heard Donald Trump threatening, um, the Iranians with a nuclear Armageddon? I will just show you guys this more.

>> Again.

>> Yeah. Yeah. This is a more, this is a more recent video. He says, "If there is no ceasefire, you're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran. They better sign the agreement fast. If they don't sign, they're going to have a lot of pain." Let's take a look. Oh, let's take a listen.

>> Is the ceasefire with Iran still on?

>> Yeah, it is. It is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. They trifled. I call that a trifle. I'll let you know when there's no cease. You won't have to know. If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran. And they better sign their agreement fast. The talks are going very well, but they have to understand if it doesn't get signed, they're gonna have a lot of pain. They're gonna have a lot of pain. They want to sign it. I will tell you, they want to sign it a lot more than I do.

I think that's what you want to hear, fellas. Or you want to hear a different tone. That's the only thing they understand. They don't understand it. We had three world-class destroyers go through the, the strait today. Uh, any other country under the circumstances wouldn't have done. Shoot, shot missiles at it and drones at it and these stupid boats that came at it. They got blown away in about two minutes. Uh, their tanker got blown. You know what we did with the tanker? We didn't want to create it. So we shot out the rudder, and the tanker is going around spinning around in circles. Uh, they should not have done that today. Uh, we thought they might. We didn't know, but we were prepared. They shot missiles. Every missile was knocked down. Every drone was knocked down. And the people that shot it are no longer with us.

You know, Donald Trump is increasingly, he sounds like this old uncle you have, um, on, on, on, on Easter night. You don't want him to get drunk, you know, because you don't want him to go political, really. Like, it's becoming embarrassing for the US. It's becoming very embarrassing for the US as a great power. But then in the US, I mean, what's not embarrassing? I mean, seriously. I mean, you can go through them. Rex Rubio, they have the minister de facto, they have different titles, but that's the minister of defense, the minister of foreign affairs. You have Vance, that, you know, that sock puppet of tears without any spine.

>> Yeah.

>> Who's not embarrassing? You have the spiritual advisor of Trump, the crazy woman who runs around and does exorcisms and screams at the top of her voice. I, I, you know, with, with America at, at this moment, they are so degraded, they have, um, diminished themselves so horrifically that even Trump is just one of the crowd. It's, it's extreme, but it's true. But look, the serious issue here, of course, is what looks like a threat, uh, again, with, with a nuclear attack, right? And I, I mean, he doesn't quite say it, but, you know, a big glow. What could that be? It could also refer, it could be his way of saying, we will once again, um, start a massive bombing campaign, and this time we will, we will destroy all of the civilian infrastructure in one go, and we also hit, um, residential quarters again, massively, and kill a lot of people. I mean, look, um, I've heard this figure just today on a podcast I was watching, and I had forgotten it. I knew it. Even before the Americans dropped the two nuclear bombs, the first atomic bombs that were dropped in, in humanity's history on the two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in August 1945, they had already massacred 700,000 civilians in 58 Japanese cities. 58 Japanese cities had already been bombed massively, and often repeatedly, and often involving firebombing. That is not just that you throw a few fire sticks. It means you are deliberately starting not just a fire, but a firestorm, right? You do that on purpose.

And, um, so, and this was, and this was, and this was started just like, um, very close.

>> This was in '45. They did all of this in a few months.

>> Yeah.

>> So in a few months. So when Japan was already withdrawing.

>> And this is 1945. They didn't have that technology now. But of course, Americans have always been very motivated. I mean, ask the Native Americans, like the ones they've replaced.

Talk about great replacement theory. The Americans have practiced great replacement. Um, Americans have always been very motivated in massacring, not just killing, massacring. Masculating is a thing for them. And in this one campaign, before the two nuclear bombs, they had already killed 700,000 civilians in 58 Japanese cities, and then on top, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, right? So I'm saying this now because when you hear an American president say there's going to be a big glow with them, you, you don't quite know. They can make a glow even without nuclear weapons. They can, and they would, right? But, but the other thing that also is, is of course especially frightening here is that it brings us back to this problem with Tony Soprano and Joe Pesci, right? They have the sidekick who's not a sidekick, but the real boss by now, who is completely insane, even more than they are, hard to imagine, but even more, and who has 300 nuclear warheads, according to Powell, who once actually gave us that figure. So it could also be a way in which he's saying, well, if they don't agree to this agreement soon, then I will let Israel use nuclear weapons because Israel would, in, in, know, I mean, at the drop of a hat, they would use nuclear weapons on Iran if only they could. So it is very frightening. I hope it doesn't happen. I think there's a positive or an optimistic interpretation, and I won't guess what is real, but it could also be a bit of a facade. It could also be that Trump actually is beginning to accept that the only way he gets an agreement with Iran to escape from this trap that he has made for himself is to make major concessions. So that it's going to be an agreement that, if you actually read it, will show that the Americans have been defeated. But then, before that even happens, he would do what he does now. He would tell us a story about how he is threatening hell to them again, because then, once it happens, the story we would then be told is, and they only signed because I threatened them. So that nobody gets to actually understand that the reason why they signed is because the Americans actually made concessions, because the Americans actually lost the war.

So it could be a huge distraction maneuver, right? And I have no idea what it is. But I'd like to repeat that what is so terrible about our situation nowadays in the world is that we cannot by no means exclude that it is a genuine and not totally improbable threat with the use of nuclear weapons.

>> Yes.

>> In a normal world, we should be sitting there and be like, "No, that, that cannot be." But the world in which we live is, oh, absolutely. Between Israelis and Americans, on top of this, using nuclear weapons, they can, unfortunately. Now, there might be parts of the American establishment that would prevent Trump from going through himself if he tried. I doubt that there's anybody who can really stop the Israelis anymore if they tried. H I mean, it could be that countries outside of the transatlantic alliance who would have probably sent signals to Israel that this is, that would be a red line, because this is, this is not going to be a one-time thing. This is going to be leading into Iran basically building its own nukes, and this is going to be like an exchange in a region that is going to blow up the, the war. Iran would retaliate immediately with everything conventional they have, and that wouldn't be a nice day for Israel either.

But the other problem is that what Israel really needs, Israel, as we know, has a Samson doctrine, right, or directive that actually says if we feel really threatened, we reserve the option of bombing anyone in the world. Anyone. Not just our immediate enemies, anyone.

>> Yes.

>> So we might actually bomb with nuclear weapons Europe or even the United States. Because what we are trying to say to them is, you can never allow us to fall. If we ever fall, we will drag you with us into death. That's why it's called the Samson doctrine, right? And I think it's high time that somebody articulates an opposite doctrine to the Israelis, which would run something like the following: "If you ever dare use a single nuke, we will wipe you out. This will be your last day on Earth." That's deterrence. That's not that I want this to happen. It's the opposite. But this is the logic of deterrence. This is how the Soviet Union and the USA kept each other deterred. It's called mutual assured destruction. And here we need a variety where the Chinese or the Russians would have to step in and say, "If you ever use a nuke, the damage to world politics and all of us is so terrible, you will face nuclear retaliation immediately. No more questions asked." The Israelis have no incentive to keep their bloody fingers off the trigger, and they need an incentive.

I've seen a video, Tavi, um, about this case. I'm not really sure about the position of this Chinese guy or his proximity to any Chinese officials. But I've seen him a lot in the English language sphere, and he speaks about Chinese foreign policy. And this is what he said about Israel's nuclear ambitions.

"First of all, I want to tell the Israeli government and the Israeli leaders that the moment Israel uses a nuclear warhead against any other country, including against Iran, it will be the demise of Israel as a country, as a state. Therefore, think twice and always use the Chinese wisdom that if you dare to use a nuclear weapon against any other country, you may cause the demise of your own country." That's number one.

I think this is, uh, it will be hit by copyright now because there is music behind it. But anyways, uh, you get the point. I will try to remove this music later after the, the stream. I can do that. However, since we spoke about, guys, a few things, um, about also Donald Trump basically playing for DHS, we have spoken about this with TK, the alleged, of course, for DHS. Last week, we have, I asked Tar this question, and then I asked Safarad the same question, and then I asked KLA the same question. One is an expert on global geopolitics and history. Our different topic, Chilan is more specialized in the Iranian affairs, and Carb is more specialized in the Chinese affairs, and all of them were almost in the same context with different layers of arguments. I have collected all of them together. I took the scripts of these streams, and I have, uh, written, um, an opinion article on Substack. Our moderator, Alex, has already dropped the link in the live chat. It's the article that says, "The Myth of Trump's 4D Chess in Iran." If you go to the description below, you will see my personal Substack. You can read it. But TK's also Substack is tagged in my articles because I'm using his arguments basically in, in the op-ed at the beginning. One of the, let's say, one of the many arguments I'm using is his. So I'm attributing to that. However, what we do also every week, because this is a Cold War 2.0 show exclusively with Tar, Tavi also gives us his exclusive offer for people who are watching us. And this is today, 25% off for new annual plans. If you subscribe today, in the next 48 hours, to TX Substack, you will get 25% off on new annual subscriptions. Now, if you're watching this on your smartphone or on your laptop, you can simply just click the link in the description below. If you go to the description, you will find it. Now, if you're watching again on a tablet, on a laptop, on a TV, and you have a spare smartphone on your hand, you can simply scan this QR code on the top right or the top left of Tar on the site, and it sends you directly to his, uh, Substack, and that's how you can support the, uh, Taric's intellectual and academic work, where he also publishes his opinion and commentaries and his analysis there. That would be, um, how we support each other to stay independent, my friends. And as I'm speaking about, uh, independence and, um, about support, I'm sure you guys, if you're present on social media platforms, you have seen that in the past two weeks, millions, I'm, I'm talking about millions of YouTube channels were demonetized by YouTube's new AI machine. So they have bought a new AI machine. They basically scan the channels, they read the content, and then they just decide if you are going to be demonetized or not. And then they give you the right to, uh, appeal the decision, right? And even if you appeal, another AI checks. It's not a human being. I swear to God, I'm being, I'm being very truthful to you guys. Another AI checks. It's not even a human being. So if you're watching this, guys, and just in case, because we speak about controversial things here and we have controversial opinions, just in case if you're demonetized or deplatformed, um, the best place to catch us now is on Substack. What I'm doing here on Friday, for example, we posted this live on Syrian Analysis with Tavi, and on Saturday, one day later, I posted on Substack as well. But just in case if we were deplatformed, demonetized, and all these things, you will find us on Substack. So go to the description below and follow us on Substack. So please stay in touch, just in case we are kicked out of this beautiful platform.

>> You see, you see, Kark, that's what makes you different from Trump. You have a plan. I have an exit strategy. I have an exit strategy.

>> We always have to think through, man. Like we're just jumping over the words. We have to be careful what we say. And then we live in a free country, you know, like we have to be really careful about this. Totally free and super free.

>> Yeah. Since we are in a very thick country. Uh, Pav, um, so we have, uh, Vadul, the foreign minister of Germany. He says, standing next to Israel's foreign minister, this was last year, last week, he said, "Israel has every right to be in South Lebanon," and he called their actions necessary. And, uh, this is only Vadul, this is the official. And then we have someone from the CDU, whom I blocked since day one after October 7th, when I saw this guy, like, I cannot handle the presence of this guy. It, I couldn't handle this guy's moment. Like, what this guy says in German, guys, which means, "We are ready to defend Israel with our lives." This is what he says, literally. Check. Let's see if this moment, uh, wait before you comment, Tavi, what's the legal way to respond to the likes of Kitzeta? This guy is very, very sensitive, very, very influential, and he has, as we say in Arabic, he has a long arm and he has lots of connections, and he's ready to harm people. So.

>> Oh, yeah, absolutely. And he's, he's friends with, with the Ukrainians and, and some of the worst of them. So, yeah, he has, he has people who can harm people. But, um, um, what can I say? Look, um, I don't know who he has in mind when he says "we." I think he means Germany. And I have to say, I'm German, and I'm not. I'm absolutely not ready to, um, risk my life in the name of the so-called security of Israel. What, what is that even? The security of committing genocide and never being punished? Is, is that what he means? Because I'm not, I'm not part of that, actually. So, um, and I think there are a lot of Germans who are not willing. I mean, a lot of Germans are underinformed, and that's irresponsible. They should know much more about what Israel is actually doing, and they shouldn't rely on their mainstream media anymore. So I'm not letting them off the hook. But I think that Kitzeta is going farther than even these people. I, I don't think there are a lot of people in Germany who are that, as I would say, entirely misguided, even pathologically misguided. There's absolutely no way in which someone from Germany has either a legal or an ethical or historical, if that's what he wants to talk about, obligation to risk their life to defend Israel or its security or whatever phrase he wants to use. If he wants to talk about history, if he is trying to mobilize the memory of the genocide that Germans did commit against Jews, the Holocaust, then I have to tell him the real moral obligation, and we've been over this, Tavi, a lot of times, of a German nowadays would be to resist Israel because Israel is committing a genocide. And the true lesson from the Holocaust, as from any other genocide, should always have been, this must not be done by nobody to nobody. The lesson is not, as Germans often seem to think, this must not be done by Germans to Jews, but if Jews do it to Palestinians, then Germans have to side with the Jews. That's nonsense. That's nonsense. And history isn't there to buttress foul lying like that. And if Kitzeta doesn't like this language, he can try to sue me. I'd meet him in a courtroom, and we can have a discussion in public. So, um, there is no basis I can see at all for this claim that somehow we, the Germans, have to be ready to defend Israel. Absolutely not. And I would say what we have done collectively as a state, the way we have given Israel the submarines to park their completely criminal nuclear weapons on to threaten us all. The way we have, we are the largest arms provider in general to Israel throughout the genocide as well, with a very minor break in between, just for optics. These are crimes of complicity. These are crimes. So I would turn it around. I would say we, the Germans, have a responsibility actually not to ever help Israel because it's a genocidal state, and we have committed two genocides. One in Africa and one in Europe, not just one. And we need to know about genocide that it's never okay. Even if we think that somehow it's the descendants of our former victims committing one. That's a perverse logic. So if we have any obligation, it's actually to be against Israel, very, very clearly. And to be against Israel is not anti-Zionism because Zionists and Jews are not the same thing. And somebody who pretends they are the same thing is actually anti-Semitic because Zionism is criminal. And if you blame Zionism on all Jews, I will call you an anti-Semite because you are accusing all Jews as being Jewish of a crime, the crime of Zionism. And since I'm not an anti-Semite and well-informed, I actually know that there are substantial numbers of Jews who are against Zionism. So I won't make that mistake.

Today, something, uh, also happened in Germany. Um, don't know if you saw this photo. One of our friends published it, uh, today. Um, apparently, the German police were, uh, full-on mobilization today to stop, uh, communist and Soviet flags in, in Germany. What's, what's the occasion? What was happening today that they were so mobilized about? Is it something about the World War II Victory Day?

>> But Victory Day is next week, right? Is that or?

>> No, this is the 8th of May. Victory Day.

>> Ah, it's today. Okay. Okay. I thought it's on the 15th.

>> No. So, it's different in East and West, but in the East, it's the 8th. And, um, and yeah, I mean, it's this other thing where it's become fashionable in Germany to treat Russian celebrations, specifically Russian celebrations of Victory Day or memorial events for for people who died, and quite a few are actually buried in Germany because that's where they died, right, um, as, as somehow Russian propaganda and a part of the nefarious Russian attempt to, um, influence what, what they call in Berlin, our information spaces, and all this nonsense. And what, what, what this whole logic doesn't understand is that obviously the state does play a role in the way that Victory Day is remembered in Russia. Of course it does. It would in any society. It would in France. It would here. It would in Britain. Of course, it does. But what these people don't understand is that in the war, specifically between mostly Nazi Germany and a few clients, but mostly Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union on the other side, 26 to 27 million Soviet citizens, they were not all ethnically Russian, but many were citizens, included.

>> Ukrainians included.

>> Yes. Yes. Of course, very much died.

>> And so what that means is that the event itself was a mass event. It touched basically everyone and every family, right? If, if you don't die in that war yourself, you know someone who has died in this war, and more likely than not, that someone is even from your family, right? So once something like that happens, it leaves an enormous memory. This is independent of the state. And what Germans don't want to accept, and I find this extremely tactless and extremely crude, and I find it very arrogant of them because they are the people who killed the 26 to 27 million in a war of aggression, right? What they don't want to accept is that even if you have a problem with the way that the Russian state treats this memory, you should respect the fact that it is really a popular, deep-seated trauma and memory for millions and millions and millions of Russians. And that's because we, the Germans, killed so many of them between '41 and '45. That's why. And so I find it incredibly arrogant and, and, and just also very stupid. It bespeaks this inability to see the room, right? That nowadays Germans go and actually want to tell Russians how to commemorate that event. Yes. Even in Germany. And you know what? If somebody wants to wear a pin with a St. George ribbon or with a Soviet flag or with a Russian flag, whatever, on that one day, they should just tolerate it and be quiet.

If they don't want it on other days, okay, fine. Maybe that's their prerogative. But on that one day, as a matter of shame and decency, Germans should actually just let it go. That's what I say as a German. And the other thing I have to say is, you know, what about a country or authorities who think it's cool to project the Israeli flag on every building in the country, on the Brandenburg Gate, and so on? The flag of a country committing a genocide as we speak.

Israeli flag, Russian flag. What?

>> It's on the Rathaus. It's on the municipality building. But question mark.

>> But an old Soviet flag. That's your big problem.

That's your problem. Seriously, I mean, none of this makes any sense anymore. I've I've seen a headline recently or it was a tweet, I can't remember. And it basically said one simple thing. Germany has no moral authority left in this world. And that's absolutely true. And as a German, I say this with grief, with very serious grief. Germany has been a morally problematic case. The Germans aren't the only ones who've ever committed terrible crimes as a nation, right? This has happened in other places. But what they're doing now, what they're doing now, the way that they have instrumentalized the fact that they committed the Holocaust to take completely immoral and perverse positions. That that is just I I don't know what to say anymore. I think they don't realize in Berlin how the world looks at us.

>> No, I feel I I'm not German. I and I I live here for 10 years and I feel like I belong I belong to this place, you know. I walk in the streets. I eat from their food. I drink from their water. I socialize with the people here. Like 10 years is long enough for me to feel integrated. And when I see on the municipality or in the in the in the office of the citizens you're talking about it's the German citizens office the building >> you have an Israel flag >> you have Ukraine flag >> moments Israel and the LGBT flag where is the German flag >> I'm sorry >> haven't you heard of the >> German citizen it's a German citizen office >> yeah no But look, there there has been a case. This is authentic. People can Google it. I know it sounds insane. But there has been a case. It it was a minor town somewhere in Western Germany, I think. And one night, somebody hung up like 50 or so German flags, just German flags, nothing weird, nothing Nazi, nothing. The official German flag of today all over the town. And the police started actually an investigation.

>> I believe that. The official reasoning seems to have been that the way that you hang up all of these flags that are actually the flags of our country, that must be a political provocation from the right.

>> Mhm.

>> What the [ __ ]

>> Even if it is, it's still the official flag. So just ignore it.

>> Actually, the somebody made anes guys is a police report you do here in Germany. Somebody made an ane this was a few months ago. Uh in Berlin there is a region called wedding. It's in the in the west of Germany in the west of Berlin because somebody hang a German flag in the balcony.

>> They reported him to the police and the police had to come to his apartment like myself. I remember back in the day in Syria tar when it is World Cup season half Syrian people used to support the German man the German national team.

>> But but that's an exception at football games. That's when they can display the flag and they can paint it on themselves, right? But no, otherwise it's still very

>> I don't know.

>> It's controversial.

>> Uh, one of our friends says, "My my weekly palette cleanser from all the geopolitical slope on the internet. I appreciate the genuine analysis." Thank you so much. I I also think that this show is um it presents um solid content analysis and we also do it sometimes with humor. Guys, if you like the content we do, if you like what we're doing here, the easy thing is always just to hit the like button as you're watching. Subscribe to Sana analysis and also check Tav Substack in the description below. Um TK um there is one more topic which is the uh in the German opposition side the AFD alternative for Germany or uh alternative for Deutsland they scored it seems to 41% in the uh Saxony anhal

>> in a in a poll

>> yeah in a poll and now the is now pulling out all the stops threatening the entire state with sanctions should the AFD come to power. This is a video I'm going to show t um uh there is even English dubbing on it you know so we could just listen one of the ways they're trying to punish the people if they vote for the AFD let's take a look former left is prime minister of the in fact a lot of people believe that Thomas Kimri was a legitimate prime minister and that Romelo essentially manipulated his way into power here you can see the two of them Romelo said that anyone in the AFD world should not complain when democratic standards are eroded and Reiner House then issued specific threats. The statement he made suggests a belief that an AFD victory could lead to a situation where high school diplomas and other educational credentials from the affected federal state might not be routinely accepted by universities in other areas of the country.

>> Uh the exchange of

>> they coming after academia if

>> no not only academia there's much more there. Yeah, we can

>> maybe you could elaborate you could maybe elaborate it what they trying to do.

>> So what's happening is that the RFD is the the new right that it's uh of course there are always differences but think of the German version of Farage Reform UK think of the German version of Lemon National. So that's the if day right it's the new right um I have no political sympathy I'm very much aligned very much with the new left which is totally different

>> way exactly but I just want to be people should be aware that I'm not speaking out of sympathy but

>> in a spirit of fairness and logic German law foresees the possibility of actually prohibiting a party if the state can prove that the party is actively fighting against the constitutional order. Okay, that is not possible with the IFD.

>> People have talked about it again and again as if it were, but it's not. And the key reason is that they don't fall under that criterion. I cannot stand their policies, most of them, but that's not the case. They're just a very right-wing party, but they're not an anti-constitutional party, and it's not right to prohibit them. Next step, if you cannot prohibit a party, then the party has a right to be treated as every other party. And the reason is not just the party. The reason is not that if you don't do this, you do an injustice to the members of the party or its functionaries. No, you do an injustice to all its voters. you begin to treat votes fundamentally different. You say your party is allowed to run in the system but it's not allowed for instance to build a government like everybody else. What is this? This actually means you're creating two classes of voters and people pay far too little attention to this aspect. The third thing is the IFD is not only strong in East Germany but it is much stronger in the former East Germany. than in the former West Germany. So here you are, you are treating this party differently, although you can't prohibit it, which means it should be treated like everybody else, and you're doing it on a regional basis.

>> So you're discriminating politically against millions of Germans just because they're in East Germany. Congratulations. That must be so good for our politics. This has been going on forever and it's called the brand mau the fireball which means you can vote for the IFD but all the other parties gang together and say we will never build a coalition with them to govern as we would with everybody else. This is de facto discrimination. It's not in the constitution. I think it's illegal. It's a minority opinion. I know but I think this is unconstitutional. And I repeat, I have no sympathy for the Afgh. But this is unconstitutional. The brand Mau is the thing that subverts our democracy, not the IFD. And I've explained why. And now we get to this situation where the IFD is pulling so strong in Saxony Anhalt which is one of the major federal subjects of the federal state Germany that it is very conceivable not certain but conceivable that within a few months from now it will win the local elections and then a whole land could for the first time actually end up with an RFD government or an RFD dominated coalition government. one of the two this become is now likely right and the response as you have shown by the establishment parties are threats and those threats are highly unconstitutional in themselves because what they're saying is they're saying this to the voters of course that's the threat if you vote IFD and Zaxony Anhalt and if these guys win and they start running your country your land your federal subject as they should that's constitution utional then we will take all sorts of anti-constitutional punishment measures against all of you. We will go after your high school diploma. We will go after your finances because the finances of the federal subjects are partly coming from the federation. Oh, we could cut those off. Totally illegal, but hey, maybe we do. So there we would also cut you off from ordinary policing. at the federal level we will cut you off from data systems and so on and the shem logic is because we can't trust you but the point is if the people in Saxony Anhal elect these people to be in government they have a right to do all these things and nobody has a right to just take it away from them that's ridiculous the people who talk like that are polarizing Germany not the IFD I have to be very clear here and again I'm actually on the other side of the political spectrum.

Now the other thing is that in the German constitution there is one paragraph paragraph 37 and it's about something called the bundist swang which in English would be federal compulsion I can't find it or um it basically means under very specific circumstances the federal government can have the right to take over certain functions in a land, right? And and to basically push the land government aside.

>> Aside Yeah.

>> to tell you how special this is, it has never been done.

>> Implemented. Yeah.

>> Never since World War II, since this system exists, it has never been done. One reason is that when there are conflicts between these federal subjects, the lender and the federal center, there are other mechanisms. There are well-known mechanisms how to resolve these conflicts. Nobody needs federal compulsion. It's never been needed. The second reason is that it's actually very difficult to enact. You need certain, you know, to fulfill certain conditions. And the third reason is even if you practice bund federal compulsion, it's actually a very limited thing because you can only do it specifically about certain obligations the lender have. If I give you an example, the lender have an obligation to maintain certain structures for the federation. For instance, infrastructure in communication. If a land, not if they're just a bit negligent, but but if a land came out with a policy and saying we will no longer repair the autoban, I'm not kidding you. Then at the federal level, maybe they would have a case for saying the repair of the autoban now becomes a matter of federal compulsion.

>> Yeah.

>> But you see what's happening here. They can take over issue by issue perhaps. perhaps. And what is really worrying against this background is that we now get these weird voices in the German public sphere from the mainstream parties and they are talking as if the constitution allows just implanting a dictator, right? We don't like your election result. We send a commisar from Berlin and he will rule your land. Now, nothing nothing in the constitution allows this. Not even paragraph 37. If you actually look at paragraph 37, it allows very specific limited things and that still is considered so unusual that it has never been done, never in postwar German history.

>> So that all of these things are being talked about now these inconstitutional punishment measures that voters voters are being threatened. People are always talking like the RFD. You have to be fair. The RFD has voters. It is citizens. It is individual voters who are being cajolled and threatened and no voter deserves this. It doesn't matter if he wants to vote what I would vote BSV or AFD or even FDP which I think is a really extremist party. It doesn't matter.

>> A voter has rights and you have no right to threaten that voter, not his party. You're threatening that voter by saying, "Oh, if you vote for the IFD too much, if they get into government in your land, then your kids high school diploma won't be worth anything."

>> That is incredible. These people should probably sued. It's It's horrific. But it also is a sign of where we are in Germany. Germany is turning into It's not authoritarian yet, but it's not

>> it's not a secure democracy anymore either. And it's not a secure a state of law either. You see it when they persecute people for opinions which they do in Doru and you see it in maneuvers like this.

>> Wait, wait, wait. Since you mentioned him, um, guys, have you know that? Did do you know what they are hanging now in the streets in in Germany?

>> Yeah.

>> Wait, wait for it. Since you mentioned it, I think it's funny to show the people. Basically, this is Hussein Dogu. He's been sanctioned by the European Union without any court session, without nothing. It's just a bureaucratic decision. They sanction him. They deprive him of his bank account, his wife.

>> They're trying to staff his family. They were trying to staff his whole family.

>> And now the And now the EU is is is basically hanging all these banners all all over Germany. They say Vishik is like protecting what is important for us like free press. They believe like they claim that they they believe in free press and they literally sanctioned this guy

>> in the can I can I show you guys another photo because this is this is so hilarious. Like the other day I was walking also in the street when I found it I was like I I cannot do it. I I don't take pictures in the streets at all. It's like I have to do it. I cannot like I put my smartphone on the ground and the people are looking at me. what is this guy is doing because I think this is so hilarious like what is this we should make fun of them really they deserve it

>> they're insane they're insane and the problem is that they are so um shameless

>> and the shamelessness not just a moral problem it's irritating but the the what's behind it is really bad which means they feel completely out of reach of any consequences of the possible political behavior.

>> Yeah,

>> they feel completely unpunishable, unaccountable and that's the terrible thing about the current elite in the EU and I think also in Germany.

>> Davik, I could continue this discussion with you for another hour. Unfortunately, we are already 1 hour and 10 minutes. I would like to thank you for always coming to the show and contributing to the discussion and the conversation and great insight. many many most of the Syrian analysis people come back every Friday only to uh listen to you. So we truly appreciate you and we appreciate you guys for joining us every every week on Friday 5:00 p.m. Central European time, 11:00 a.m. Eastern American time. If you like this show, guys, the easy thing to do only hit the like button, thumbs up before leaving this stream. Subscribe to Syria Analysis. Let's move the numbers a little bit higher and only if you want and only if you can support this independent work that we are doing here on Syrian analysis without any sponsorship without any support you can become a patronon the link is calling on the skin patreon.com/siana analysis some people don't like using patreon so there are different other links in the description below you can check how to support cavian analysis thank you so much for tuning in and thank you so much with access for being with us in the live chat today and it was great I was also checking All the comments, people were interacting and discussing. This was great also for the discussion guys. Thank you so much and we will see you next week. Huh? Peace be upon you upon your families. Salam.