Transcription
For nearly a year, we've watched Xi Jinping's loyalists fall one after another. We've seen old slogans and political figures associated with Hu Jintao have returned to the headlines. The powerful central decision-making and coordination body has been revived to check Xi. Officials that Xi Jinping tried to sideline like Hua Yang and Hu Jintao's son, Hu Chunhua, are back on stage.
The headline conclusion that many people draw is this: Xi Jinping's days are numbered. But if Xi Jinping has lost power, why do party elders keep pretending he's still in charge? Right? That's the question many of us have. And that's the reason why many people are not convinced that he has lost power. I give you two reasons.
First, they want to take out the rat without breaking the vase. Um, that's a Chinese expression meaning get rid of the target but protect the party and minimize collateral damage. And the second reason is that they don't want a coup on their record. The anti-Xi side insists on a legal, orderly transfer. No blood, no public purge. That strategy explains why he remains a figurehead, but it also leaves a fatal loophole, and that loophole gives Xi a chance to fight back.
Now, there are really only two legal ways for Xi Jinping to step down. Option number one is he resigns at the Fourth Plenum. Perhaps citing health reasons or another plausible reason and then retires gracefully. That's what the party elders want. Option number two, he clings on until the 21st Party Congress in two years when a normal leadership transition would occur. That's the outcome that Xi Jinping prefers.
Here's the catch. The first path only works if Xi Jinping cooperates. If he shows up at the Plenum and refuses to resign, the anti-Xi camp faces an ugly choice. They either have to accept him or they try to remove him via a formal vote, a motion of dismissal inside the Central Committee. It sounds like internal democracy, but it's actually very risky. Why? Because Xi Jinping personally has vetted the roughly almost every one of the 374 alternate members of the Central Committee. Yeah, 370. Um, but more than 70% of them are his people. So, the anti-Xi side has removed some of his allies from key positions, but they can't purge them all at once. They don't have the time and they can't overreach.
So, their current tactic is quiet persuasion, one-on-one meetings with Central Committee members, securing verbal commitments. But every Xi Jinping loyalist has their own calculus. Jumping ship is dangerous. And in two weeks, can the party elders really guarantee enough defections to win a vote? It's very difficult to say. And some people say it's highly unlikely. And Xi knows this. He may be a terrible leader, but he's not foolish. He understands the anti-Xi camp's biggest weakness: their insistence on legitimacy. They want a clean, bloodless transfer, but that very insistence gives Xi room to maneuver. If they're forced into a vote, the result could still favor Xi Jinping.
And that brings us back to the formidable Zhang Youxia, the man under the most pressure. Now, he holds real military power, and the elders rely on him. But if the elders insist on a legal removal of Xi, that would expose a raw power grab. Zhang Youxia could become the sacrificial pawn. Now, think it through. If Xi Jinping refuses to step down at the Plenum and somehow survives until the 21st Congress, two chaotic years open up. The elders might survive politically because they're party elders. They've retired. They hold no positions. But Zhang and his circle will be the first to pay the price: eliminated, jailed, or even worse. So for Zhang, there's only one real option left: do whatever he can, partner with the elders, or use military leverage that he currently has to prepare an independent contingency plan.
Now, let me share with you one leak that's very interesting. It said that Li Qiang and General Zhang Youxia recently visited Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao to discuss emergency plans or contingency plans for handling Xi Jinping at the Fourth Plenum. During the meeting, Zhang Youxia made five points very clear.
First, he said that if Xi Jinping doesn't step down at the Fourth Plenum, the situation will turn dangerous. He will be under enormous pressure, and the PLA could become unpredictable.
His point number two was that if Xi refuses to bow out, the safety of Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao will be in jeopardy. And according to military intelligence Zhang had gathered, both are already being closely monitored by Xi. If the Plenum doesn't go as intended or as planned, their lives could be at risk.
Three, if Xi stays, the power struggle inside the party will move from behind closed doors into the open. The infighting will spiral out of control, turning into a street fight in broad daylight.
And his point number four is that Xi Jinping is unlikely to give up power voluntarily. The elders must be ready to act fast if that happens.
And fifth, the last point he made, um, he added a philosophical warning. He said once something starts rolling, there's no turning back. And he said it's like a rock falling down a hill. You can't stop it. You can only try to guide it without knowing where it will land.
And according to this leak, the elders' plan to use Li Keqiang's death as the trigger to bring Xi down. So here's how it would unfold. So if Xi Jinping suddenly backtracks during the Fourth Plenum, where this man will step in. Hu Chunhua, as a Central Committee member, will submit a formal motion demanding a full investigation into the sudden death of former Premier Li Keqiang. So why? Well, because party elders no longer hold official titles. They can't really propose any motion. So they need someone inside the system to act.
According to this leak, Li Keqiang's death has been determined as a political assassination ordered by Xi Jinping, and that the party elders have secured both witnesses and evidence. So this is Xi Jinping's fatal weak spot, and the motion would serve as a warning to every Central Committee member or alternate member. If Xi isn't removed, anyone could be the next Li Keqiang.
So, Hu Chunhua will fire the first shot, then other senior officials will follow, including the party secretary of Shanghai, and then the minister of organization, and then the party secretary of Chongqing. These three people apparently have defected and will speak. And then remember Wang Huning, the ideology chief who recently distanced himself from Xi by clasping his hands behind his back on camera. So according to this leak, Wang Huning will deliver another major blow, accusing Xi Jinping of building a cult of personality and seeking lifetime rule.
Meanwhile, Premier Li Qiang and Zhang Youxia would also take the floor. So Li Qiang will blame Xi Jinping for crippling the government, abusing power, and wrecking the economy. Zhang Youxia will accuse Xi of letting his wife, a performer with no military background, interfere in military affairs and of purging senior officers under the banner of anti-corruption, thereby crippling the army's combat strength.
After those speeches, Hu Jintao would return to the podium to formally move to suspend Xi Jinping from all positions. At the same time, the Central Committee will propose Wang Yang as acting Secretary General, together with the party's decision-making and coordination body. They will function as the interim leadership team until the 21st Party Congress in 2027, when a new leader will be chosen through collective consultation. And according to this leak, Zhang Youxia will be appointed acting chairman of the Central Military Commission again until the 21st Party Congress, when they elect a new military chief. The state presidency would also be temporarily assumed by Wang Yang until next year's Two Sessions, when a new president will be formally confirmed.
By this stage, everything appears legal and by the book, making it almost impossible for Xi's loyalists to keep defending him. They will then set up a special investigation committee, chaired by Wang Qishan, with Wu Zhaohui as executive deputy chair, to probe Xi Jinping's corruption and abuse of power. The committee would have two years to complete its work and deliver a final report before the 21st Party Congress, along with a bulletin to the entire party. That's the official emergency plan, um, one that technically follows the CCP's own rules.
But even that plan could go wrong. What if those expected to denounce Xi suddenly lose their nerve and stay silent? So even that plan is not a guarantee of success. So that's why there must be a plan B, a backup plan, for when everything else fails. And the only way for the anti-Xi camp to be absolutely sure of removing Xi is to physically control him and his inner circle the moment he refuses to cooperate. That way they can release a resignation statement in his name and skip the risky Central Committee vote altogether. But for that to happen, they need the military and Zhang Youxia.
In the end, how the Fourth Plenum wraps up won't be decided by Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, or any other elder. The key figure is Zhang Youxia. And now he reacts when real danger appears in front of him.