Transcription
Welcome to another episode of Rock the Cradle. Today we have the immense pleasure of welcoming Professor Victor Gao, a prominent Chinese lawyer and scholar who almost singlehandedly takes on the fallacies of Western media narratives on China and happily often lands hard punches. Victor, we're hoping you won't spare us today and come here to deliver some hard facts about the thinking in Beijing on a whole host of issues. How are you doing today, Victor?
Thank you very much. Thank you. It's a great honor to join your program.
Well, we're we're very happy to have you here. Let's dive right in. China's position on the US-Israeli war on Iran is that the former launched an illegal war of aggression on the latter and that Iran has every right to self-defense and retaliation. That must have put Beijing in a bind last week. However, at the UN Security Council when Gulf countries in Jordan, Friends of China, sponsored a resolution that entirely left out the initial aggression aggression, seeking only to condemn Iran's retaliations as though the use of force started with Iran. Could China not have vetoed that resolution instead of abstaining? Why or why not?
Thank you. You are raising important questions about this war against Iran. First of all, I think the Chinese government has made it very clear in my best judgment that China condemns this war and believes that this war is a war of aggression against Iran which has sovereignty and territorial integrity being violated. And on the other hand, China has been calling on all parties concerned to deescalate and to prevent the further spilling over of this war, especially for example when it impacts on the major energy transportation route through the straight of Hormos. Now I personally understand why Iran has uh imposed the closure of the straight of homos and I personally believe that Iran has all the right for self-defense. On the other hand, I think the closure of the street of Homos really has global implications on almost all the countries including China because China really depends on the oil and gas to be shipped out of the Gulf to its huge market. So I think you are right, China has been caught in a very awkward position. On the one hand, China calls on the United States and Israel to stop this war of aggression against Iran. On the other hand, China has been calling on all parties to this war to deescalate. And then I think it will be very very awkward if China would exercise its veto when for example the very narrowly defined question is whether the uh closure of the straight of homos should be lifted. But I think China's decision to abstain from this vote doesn't mean that China does not acknowledge in full measure about the right of self-defense for Iran. Now Iran has made it very clear that it now wants to impose very selective closure of the straight of homos and absolutely bans countries like the United States and Israel and its allies. for example, if they are involved in this war against Iran one way or the other. So I think uh the situation is improving. Whether the situation has improved to such an extent that all the parties are satisfied with the situation, I don't think so. But I think the uh best way to lift all the exposure to the risk of the closure of the street of Homos is to bring this war completely to an end and to make sure that countries like the United States and Israel will never dare to impose another war of any kind on Iran. So it seems that it will still take some time and the situation may continue to deteriorate or further get out of control. But let's pray for sanity to come back. And I think China is doing the right thing. China has been doing the right thing from the very first day of the outbreak of this war of aggression against Iran by the United States and by Israel.
That that's the point. I mean stating the law unambiguously, international law, the UN charter, but then keeping a distance um from the conflict will perhaps allow China to step in at an opportune moment to act as a neutral mediator between the Gulf and Iran, as it did when Beijing, quite out of the blue a few years ago, brokered a a an Iranian Saudi peace that jarred Washington to no end. Do you think that's one of China's goals right now?
China's goal is very clear. China wants to do the right thing to call on all countries in the world to acknowledge that this war against Iran is a war of aggression and the United States and Israel have no right to impose this war on Iran and this war need to be stopped immediately. Now this is actually very strong support of China for the people of Iran. China is not standing on the sideline. China is really condemning this war of aggression against Iran. That's number one. Number two is that I personally hope sooner or later and the sooner the better uh China can play a role especially between Iran and the United States uh to do some mediation and good offices for example to make sure that this war is brought to an end. On the other hand, I think what the United States has been doing, especially on September the 28th, launching this war of aggression, you know, um killing so many top leaders in Iran in the midst of a ongoing negotiation is really destroying uh the trust that the United States may still have. And I think for the moment there is probably no single iota of trust in Iran for the United States. So how can uh Iran being convinced that it's still worthwhile to start negotiation with the United States? So I think uh we need to uh look at the situation and put everything back to square one. That is the United States need to hold itself out as a country with responsibility with trustworthiness rather than a country really at one term trying to you know pretend to be negotiating with a country while really launching a war of aggression against the other country. So I think the burden of the proof is on the United States to restore the minimum amount of trust that will be necessary for this negotiation to be started between the United States and Iran. I think China will be happy and willing to do whatever it takes to make sure that eventually peace will be restored, war will be stopped, and sanity will come back. And I personally don't think the American people are enemies of the Iranian people. And President Trump should acknowledge that this should be the megatrant of our time. to use war against Iran will not achieve peace. It will destroy peace and it will really cause huge repercussions on the United States itself as well as huge disaster for mankind as a whole. I think the pro prolonging this war will result in three major crisis. One is the energy crisis which is happening as we speak. Secondly, it will lead to a major global economic crisis. Thirdly, it will result in one of the most important largest scale and possibly unprecedented financial crisis in human history. We are on the brink of the convergence of these three crisis. Energy crisis, economic crisis and the financial crisis. And the only way to avert this is to bring this war to an end. So it is in the court of the United States and Israel to stop the war right away.
Why not create an entirely different reality? Uh because I think a lot of people think that there's no changing US behaviors. Um I mean you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Uh certainly not midwar. Why not? I mean, is this not an opportunity for um rising powers uh like like Russia and China who by the way alongside Iran have long proposed a new security architecture for the Persian Gulf that includes only the latoral states guaranteeing security, right? Is this not an opportunity while the US may continue with its bluster and its bombing etc. um to just bypass that and come to an agreement between Iran and its neighbors. I mean, I think for its Persian, Gulf, Arab neighbors, this is an extremely critical time for them and they're not sure that the Americans are even paying attention, you know, and they're their allies. Is this not an opportune moment for um Beijing to try to wrangle a new kind of arrangement in this region that circumvents and almost forces the Americans to the negotiating table because it's lost an important card? I need not remind you that it was this US president who years ago said, "Why are we spending $8 trillion on Persian Gulf security and China just comes and gets its oil and gas, you know, with with with nothing, no expenditures? Why are we carrying that burden? So is this not a time for an opportunity for Beijing to to do you know through back channels to help push forth a new security arrangements for Arab Persian Gulf countries that must be you know absolutely incensed right now not are not just on the receiving side of Iranian hits but also um having to contend with constant barrage of US demands to launch from their territories.
Well, two more two points on my part. The first point is that indeed as this war of aggression against Iran launched by the United States and Israel has fully exposed, the greatest certainty in the world of today is the uncertainty of President Trump and his government. And the greatest predictability in the world of today is the unpredictability of President Trump and his government. This is the reality. I think more and more people should agree with what I just now said. Now the second point is equally if not even more important. For example, if an elephant falls into a ditch for whatever reason, there are three things you need to do in sequence. The first thing is to try your best to pull the elephant out of the ditch. That's number one. Number two is to figure out why this elephant fell into the ditch or is been pushed into the ditch. Now then the third point you need to do is to figure out how to prevent any other elephant from falling into the ditch into the future. Now we are in the first step of this three-step sequence and I don't think you can do these three steps out of sequence or in the wrong sequence. So we need to do whatever we can do to pull the elephant out of the ditch first and there are difficulties and there are almost impossibilities to pull the elephant out from this ditch right now. Now it is only when we reach the second stage can we really have the luxury and have the wisdom and the uh w the courage to figure out why this elephant fell into the ditch. Why the United States and Israel uh dared to launch this war of aggression against Iran etc. And then when we reach the third stage, we need to do whatever we can to come up with anything that can be uh reconstructed to prevent another war from happening. So I think we need to do this in the right sequence number first step followed to the second step and the third step. If you jump out of a sequence maybe you will be very courageous in trying that but the result may not be as what you wanted. So I think for the moment of the top priority and the greatest urgency is to put this war pull the war out of its normal cause and stop the war right away. And then we need to figure out what exactly need to happen to uh prevent the outbreak of another war. We are in the first step right now rather than in the second step or in the third step.
Victor, West Asians who despise US hijgemony in their region often now lash out at China and Russia and other Middle States or rising perils for not acting more decisively on major catastrophes like this war and the Gaza genocide which we've all had we've all sat through for two and a half years. When I was in Shanghai last October, I was often told that Beijing doesn't seek to replicate the behaviors of the American global policemen and it insert itself into all conflicts everywhere. But does this not also hinder China's ability to move the world into a international law-abiding or a multipolar reality?
No, I don't think so. I think for China, there are several things very important for China to do. First of all, on such important matters impacting directly on war or peace for mankind, China need to stand on the right side of history. Meaning, we need to call on the United States and Israel to stop this war of aggression against Iran. Now secondly whether China need to be uh materially or physically being involved in this war then we need to think really very profound questions for example whether China's direct participation will help putting a stop to this war or may add more fuel onto the fire and to make this war even worse for example this is truly one of the most important and most uh subtle philosophical questions that mankind can really think about. Sometimes by condemning it in unequivocal terms, making our position well known to the world may be better and without physically being involved in the war may turn out to be a better and more sound choice. Why? Because allow me to share with you my own concern. This war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran after so many days already contains almost all the ingredients which may flare up into a larger regional war or even a global war. And there is real concern that one party or another or whatever may even go to the extreme of using a nuclear weapon. Therefore, we need to put out the fire right away rather than allow it to continue the conflration and continue or even constitute a even larger, even graver menace to mankind. This is not the time to pour more fuel onto this fire. This is the time to tell the United States and tell Israel in unequivocal term that you don't have any right to launch this war of aggression against Iran. And all of us need to support Iran spiritually for example in legal terms etc. and then all mankind as a whole need to unite together to put an end to the war rather than further expanding the war or to escalating the war. So I think this is the moment for different countries, different political leaders or statesmen to use their own wisdom to make a decision as to what they need to do and whether they want to be on the right side of history or the wrong side of history. Now on the other hand, allow me to make a point which is very profound point. I think when history looks back at this year, the year of 2026, because of what the United States has been doing since the beginning of this year, for example, launching this war of aggression against Iran, uh launching military actions against the Venezuela, abducting, hijacking the president of Venezuela and the first lady, for example, and threatening Canada with uh taking over Canada, threatening Greenland, threatening divide the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark threatening wars against so many other countries. The history in the future will look back at the year 2026 and mark it as the beginning of the end of Pax Americana. No matter how you define Pax Americana, Pax Americana is coming to an end. And this year is the beginning of the end of Pax Americana. Whatever President Trump and his government are doing right now only have one result or one impact that is to further accelerate the demise of Pax Americana. Therefore, philosophically speaking, we need to be very much uh convinced about this almost inevitable uh turn in history, the cause of history which be is being played out and we do not need to rush it. It will come to an end under its own weight. and what President Trump and his government are doing are accelerating the final curtain fall for Pax America.
I couldn't agree with you more. And just someone who's um been immersed in geopolitics most of my professional life, I tend to take the mile high view of things as opposed to get lost in the weeds. However, let me speak on the behalf of many of our West Asian viewers who we hear non-stop about on this issue in particular. Would it have killed China if during the Gaza genocide? having the full backing by the way of UN Security Council resolutions and having the full backing of the ICJ, the International Court of Justice, um and of course the various ceasefires implemented in Gaza, would it have killed Beijing to send Chinese flagged vessels full of humanitarian aid to Gaza's shores? Why and why not? because it was something I don't know that people in this region have a right to expect this from China but the expectation was there. Tell me why this would have been something that would have rocked the larger strategic vision instead of maybe ushered China into the the region the thinking of the region and regional actors and regional citizens in a way that would have been a net positive.
Well, if you look at the situation since the beginning of this uh war in Gaza against the Palestinians, China is the country which has generated the most important impact because China's been giving the Palestinian people in Gaza unrelented support and China's been the champion for the Palestinian people in the security council of the United Nations in all the other international organizations uh in the world in the public behind the scene for example and China has been pushing relentlessly for the two-state solution to this mess caused by Israel and on numerous international occasions I personally have been calling on Israel to stop this war of aggression violation of the uh inalienable rights of the Palestinian people I've described what the Israelis are doing against the Palestinians in Gaza as a crime against humanity, as atrocities. I even said they have no right to push down the Palestinians. The Palestinian people have as much rights as the uh Jewish people. And for anyone to believe that the Jewish people have more rights than the Palestinian peoples, they are actually acting against mankind as a whole. Therefore, if you look at what China is doing and comparing China with any other country, China in the world of today is the staunchest supporter of the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people and of the two-state solution. And I believe China will continue to do so. Now on the other hand, China is unique in the sense because given our long history, more than 5,000 years of continuous and uninterrupted history, we always believe that justice sometimes may have a very long arm and you do not need to rush. Actually, you need to believe in justice and you need to believe that those those criminals who violate the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people eventually will be brought to justice and they will have nowhere to hide when justice really uh gets hold of them. So I hope you will believe that in the world of today, China has become the staunchest supporter of the Palestinian people. And I even have gone to the length to say that the there is only one litmus test as to which country is a real friend of the Arab people or the Muslim people of the Islamic world. And that listens test is if you support the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. Now if a country doesn't support the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, it will never be a real friend of the Arab world or of the Muslim world or of the Islamic world. So the only and the most important and the most consequential litmus test is whether a country supports the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. Period.
I mean I I'm just I I don't disagree with you but uh the hand of justice is a long time and in the meantime there are you know hundreds of thousands of empty bellies. So that is something I think people would have liked to address. I do acknowledge for instance that the Chinese government um uh called on all Palestinian factions to meet in Beijing to try to get them all on the same page and we have learned fairly recently that China has prohibited um new investments in Israel. Uh but again, hungry bellies and the slow hand of history and justice. Let me ask you something, Victor. Um let's look at this current war against Iran from your point of view, not Beijing's, okay? Just you as an analyst here. I'd appreciate some of your famous frank talk. Okay. Um what are the benefits for China as this war continues? And I mean we know the negatives. You outlined those things. You know um this affects the world. It affects energy trade which China needs. It affects you know international relations. We could be on the cusp of World War II. But let's talk about some of the benefits that China could gain. And I don't mean it in a bad way. I mean it in a geopolitical way. Just pure assessment and analysis. Do you not think, for instance, that Iran's demand that cargo traversing through the straight of Hormuz must settle payments in yuan and potentially other non-western currencies. Is this not a net gain for the for not just the Chinese but also their multipolar goals, you know, from the bricks to the SEO, from sort of creating new payment platforms the world around um and to put an end to Pax Americana. Tell me that side of it. Let's look at what the net gains could be.
Let me tell you my real feeling and let me open up my mind and my heart to you. As far as China's concerned, there is no single net benefit for China at all for this war. This war is a war of aggression and there are war crimes committed against the people in Iran and there are shocking developments in this war and there is no single benefit I can ever think about as far as China's concerned. China's completely calling for an immediate end to this war and for a thorough investigations into any possible war crimes or crimes against humanity being committed in the course of this war. And for any country to dare to launch a war of aggression in the middle of an ongoing negotiation should be really investigated. And if any country believes and will do some calculation as to whether I gain more or lose more, probably that's not the real good exercise at all. So let me tell you and hopefully through you to your audience in the world that we need to do whatever we can. We need to engage in international cooperation to put pressure on all the parties concerned to stop this war immediately. Let me make a point. China now accounts for more than onethird of global manufacturing output larger than the United States, EU and Japan combined together and the Chinese yan the riming B only accounts for about 3% in international trade in terms of settlement and payment. My view is that the use of remining B need to be increased the minimum by 10fold increasing from about 3% now to about 30% eventually by reaching 30% for the remaining B in global international trade it will be just more or less uh proportional to the weight of the Chinese manufacturing and the Chinese contribution to additional GDP growth in the world. So no one should be shocked by the steady increase in the waiting of the rem in the world of today. And eventually I think with the war or without the war the Chinese uh contribution to global economy to manufacturing to industrialization urbanization connectivity of all kinds and to defending international trade for example free trade will continue and if any country wants to use rimb to settle their trade in oil trade or gas trade or otherwise guys, we will always welcome. But we do not think this is a benefit that China will get for the continuation of this war. I want to see the war ending immediately tonight hopefully. And I want the United States and Israel to go back and search their soul. And they should never be allowed to launch another war of aggression against any other country, including against Iran. And Israel should never pretend that they have the truth. They have developed nuclear weapons. There are reports that on quite a few occasions they threaten to use nuclear war against other countries. They have no right to demand any other country not only in the Middle East but anywhere in the world not to develop nuclear weapons because they violated the rules first and they now possess nuclear weapons. They threatened to use nuclear weapons. I think eventually as you mentioned when we reach step two or step three we need to create a situation where there will be no nuclear weapon at all by any country in the Middle East. that probably will be a better Middle East. It will contribute to real peace and stability and peaceful coexistence between and among countries in the Middle East.
Victor, um to your point about the chatter we're hearing increasingly that Israel may use a nuclear weapon in Iran, it seems to be very dangerous. I mean, we we often see what Western media does and Western commentators, political commentators do is sort of lay the groundwork for something unpalatable that they plan to do. Um there's altogether too much chatter about Israel using nukes on Iran. Uh two points about this. If Israel uses a nuclear weapon on Iran, doesn't that ultimately show that the the Israeli and US militaries are incapable of reaching goals with a middle state like Iran. It basically shows that there's nothing to their militaries. They had to use a weapon of mass destruction. The other thing and this is the most important I think really really our viewers would like to know. What happens to recognized nuclear powers like China and Russia if a undeclared state outside of all the systems meant to regulate um nuclear weapons, right? the non-prololiferation treaty, for instance, um uses a nuclear weapon, doesn't that create a a global south race to get one themselves as a defensive measure? Number one, um doesn't it teach people that Iran should have gotten a nuke way before? But let me ask you, what would Chi what do you think Beijing's reaction would be as a responsible responsible meaning like a recognized nuclear power? Um, one of five. What should what should Beijing do if an undeclared states uses a dirty bomb on an SEO and bricks partner country? What do you think that reaction will be?
First of all, I want to tell the Israeli government and the Israeli leaders that the moment Israel uses a nuclear warhead against any other country, including against Iran, it will be the demise of Israel as a country, as a state. Why? Because by dropping a nuclear warhead against another country, Israel will become the public enemy number one of mankind. Because mankind will never support Israel to use nuclear warhead against another country, killing hundreds of thousands if not more people. And they will really uh ignite huge condemnation uh among other countries against the government or the regime in Israel and causing the demise of Israel as a regime as a country. Therefore, think twice and always use the Chinese wisdom that if you dare to use a nuclear weapon against any other country, you may cause the demise of your own country. That's number one. Number two is that if Israel dares to use a nuclear warhead against other country, it will ironically accelerate the whole process of other countries in that part of the world try to build a nuclear bomb and eventually there will be a huge explosive growth of nuclear weapons in that part of the world and eventually it probably will cause the destruction of the whole region. as for example a livable environment for hundreds of millions of people. I'm actually encouraged by one thing that President Trump said today when asked whether um Israel will use a nuclear warhead. President Trump said no, they will not. Very similarly and very firmly and I hope President Trump is at least genuine in this particular point. So I hope peace eventually will prevail, sanity will come back and Prime Minister Netanyahu should be halted from ever daring to think about using a nuclear warhead against other countries because the consequences of doing so will be huge and he himself and the government of Israel and the military in Israel will be considered public enemy number fun for mankind.
But Israel is used to condemnation. It is the biggest violator of UN Security Council um resolutions in the UN SC's history. Is condemnation enough? Can nuclear powers actually act in a scenario like this? Is it in the interest of nuclear powers? I'm not asking for secret plans but surely countries like China and Russia cannot tolerate this kind of thing and which will lead to exactly massive proliferation of these weapons. Must it not be nipped in the bud immediately so that nobody thinks of doing this again is really my question to you. What can be done short other than condemnation?
It's not only condemnation. I mentioned the moment Israel dares to drop a bomb against other country will be the moment of the demise of Israel as a country or as a state. And there are different meanings in what I have said. It's not a threat against Israel. It's a threat against anyone in Israel who dares to think about using a nuclear warhead against other countries. And as I said, if they dare to do that, they will be public enemy number one. And this is not just condemnation. There will be huge consequences if Israel dares to use a nuclear weapon. Now, on the other hand, I think we all need to figure out why Israel believes it is in a position to dictate to the United States or even to order around how the US troops need to be deployed. And allow me to make one point. I think it is right now the high time to expune the evil as represented by Jeffrey Epstein and whoever who is with him. Now this is a very important point. I do not want to go into further details. I think the evil as represented by Jeffrey Epstein need to be fully expuned in the world including in the relations between Israel and the United States.
Does China have the files?
Well, eventually everything need to come out to the sun. Let's wait.
Okay. I like that kind of strategic ambiguity. Um, Victor, you defended last month in February Chinese sales to Iran of um the CM302 anti-hship missiles. How could there possibly be push back against Chinese sales to Iran, a strategic partner, when the US and its allies send sell military hardware to the worst tyrants the world around?
First of all, the Chinese government has fully explained the real situation and I don't think China wants to sell weapons, especially weapons with certain descriptions to any other country. China does not want to engage in any arms sale which may eventually lead to more tension or more configuration or more consequences of war. That's number one. On the other hand, China and Iran, two sovereign countries should have all the right to engage with each other for normal commercial trade and China will never give in to any so-called sanction imposed by any other country if they do not have the blessing on the security council of the United Nations. Therefore, no one should be alarmed if China and Iran, two sovereign countries, two independent countries with full decision making in their own if they want to engage in trade for normal uh constructive, mutually beneficial commercial purposes. On the other hand, I truly believe China will not engage in any armed sale to any country if China believes it may actually add to more tension and add to more dire consequences if a military conflict breaks out. So I mean in the sale of anti- anti- um ship missiles was clearly in China's view a defensive purchase um in case warships from other countries specifically the United States would um come into Iranian territorial waters or launch uh seaborn aggressions against Iran. That is what I'm concluding from what you said. But last month you also said the level of Chinese support for Iran is yet to be tested. It is at least in intel, exchange, supply and logistics. Can you explain that?
Well, I think China and Iran are fully engaged in mutually beneficial and normal exchanges in the commercial sense of the word and no other country has any justification to stand in the way of such normal trade between China and Iran. If any country believes that they should be alarmed by the normal trade between China and Iran, they should be out of their sanity rather than either China or Iran. That is the mega trend in the world. Any country with its own sovereignty and territorial integrity should be able to conduct its own affairs with another country unless for example if they are barred by a sanction imposed by the security council of the United Nations. And no country should be allowed to exercise extra territorial reach of their own domestic laws against any other country. And on top of that, China will never give in to any pressure by any country if they want to bind China with their unilaterally imposed sanctions against any other country. China never will give in to such unilateral sanctions unless they are blessed with the security council of the United Nations.
Um but you were really specific and you were questioned in context of um war with Iran and and you talked about intelligence, supply and logistics. Is there anything you can tell us? Um I mean of course many people talk about um Iran using Bo, the the Chinese Bo system. Uh but that doesn't I'm sure you know that's instead of GPS right um the American GPS system so uh that could be for civilian applications we have now seen a proliferation from from private Chinese satellite companies um some who don't have satellites in space but lease or rent or have access to um putting pictures of what the Americans and Israelis and their Gulf partners would clearly see as you know providing um uh u verification of of hits on Gulf territories. Those things cannot have been done without the okay I imagine of the government in Beijing. I I you maybe you can't go into details but do you think that there is um critical material support from Beijing to its SEO and BRICS partner Iran in preparation and in advancement of Iran's self-defense.
Allow me to mention the betal uh positioning system is one of the most sophisticated and the most efficient positioning system in the world. In many cases, it's actually more efficient than GPS. Secondly, I think almost all the countries in the world about 200 of them use one form or another the services provided by the PTO positioning system. That is not a secret. That is an open fact. And BAT system runs for example its ground stations and other services in multiple countries in the world. Therefore, if any country pretends to be shocked that another country like Iran uses fatal system, holy cow, their shock is completely unwarranted because fatal system is an open system. anyone can use it uh if for example uh they use that for their normal and legal purposes. Now Iran right now is exercising right of self-defense. Iran is being invaded. Iran is being bombed out by other countries which deliberately invaded Iran. Iran is fighting for its own survival. Therefore, if anyone in Iran wants to use services as provided in the public for by uh Bo, no one should be surprised. It is not going to be construed as a Chinese military support for Iran in its war against Israel or against the United States. I would say anyone who demands that China should discontinue the betal service to any other particular country in the world doesn't know how to respect China. China will never give them any attention. If they don't have any justification to demand that China need to discontinue China's service to any other country. The BO service is global. anyone any country in the world can use that
and your comment from last month that China support for Iran is at least in intel supply and logistics you were not talking about military
intel can mean anything I think if you understand who I am and where I go to school you'll get intel about me intel doesn't mean military intel alone intel can be very generally described.
Okay. Uh Victor, during the let's go back to June, the 12-day war last June between Iran and Israel, you said if the US gets involved in the war against Iran, quote, other major countries might want to fight together with Iran. Which nations were you referring to?
I think you need to use your own analysis and use your own imagination. The reason why I said that is I truly believe if the United States uh would be involved in the war against Iran, it may cause a very large escalation of the tension in that particular region in the world and eventually it may lead to a nuclear war or it may lead to a world war. Now we are already at this very important verge of further escalation of the war in Iran which as I mentioned may result in an energy global energy crisis, global economic crisis and global financial crisis and this war may spill out of control involving more and more countries in the world. So don't be surprised if other countries may be involved in this war one way or another supporting one side of the equation or the other side of the equation. What I said is plain vanilla. If anyone has some understanding of war and military operations and geopolitical evolution, for example, they should be prepared for things getting worse because of the US participation in this war against Iran. The United States already started this war against Iran and the situation is already getting worse and worse and more and more stakes are being uh threatened for example and the stake is getting worse and worse. So don't be surprised if more countries will be involved. For example, President Zalinski of Ukraine wanted to be involved one way or another. And as a result, Iran threatens to treat any part of Ukraine as a legitimate target for it to attack inside Ukraine. So you see the spilling over effect. Therefore, I think it is the responsibility for all the countries in the world to stop the war right away before it gets out of control before more and more countries especially more and more larger and military powers getting involved in this war. This war according to my best judgment as of today already has all the ingredients which may lead it to flare up into a world war. No kidding.
Uh I I'm I'm curious about your views about where Pakistan falls in all of this. I mean, China obviously has a a deep and enduring relationship with Pakistan. Um certainly in economic development uh with with CPAC the uh China Pakistan economic corridor though that has come under threat from terrorist bombings from time to time and of course the change in leadership we've also seen uh despite um Islamabad's sort of you know it's it's strange political pendulum swinging towards Washington swinging away from time to Uh Pakistan has a military chief who seems to be in Washington more often than in Islamabad. Um and of course Pakistan recently signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia. this itself, this one country and this new dynamic, the defense pact with uh with Riyad and of course Riad the Saudis being a target of Iranian retaliatory strikes against US military facilities there is in itself the ingredient the powdered keg that could blow this up in a whole different way. How's your reading of this this particular um situation based on your understanding of Pakistan and maybe how Beijing could impact uh this scenario from not becoming a confilration?
Well, first of all, I think I know Pakistan quite well. I've been to that great country on multiple occasions. I believe Pakistan, the Pakistani people, the Pakistani government, the Pakistani military are proud uh Muslims. They support the legitimate interest of any other Muslim countries in the world and they will not want to see the humiliation or the destruction of other uh Islamic brothers and sisters in any other part of the world. That is the mega trend I think uh Pakistan will follow. Secondly, I think the fact that Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have s have signed a mutually def mutual defense treaty is very important. Pakistan already has huge amount of soldiers being in service in quite a few countries in the Middle East and Pakistan has been generally acknowledged as a nuclear powers uh nuclear weapon country. But therefore, if anyone wants to do stupid thing or to do extreme things against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, I think this mutual defense treaty may kick in. On the other hand, I don't think Pakistan will uh without real threats, for example, uh go to the extreme of using some of the most lethal weapons against any other country unless, for example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia survivability, legitimacy, territorial integrity, etc. will be fundamentally threatened. I don't think we are reaching that point now between China and Pakistan. We are true brothers and sisters and we support each other uh in all the measures you can think about. However, there is no legally binding mutual defense treaty between China and Pakistan. We truly support each other. We stand shouldertosh shoulder, backto back on many important issues between ourselves as well as in the world. So I would say the improvement of Pakistan's relations with the United States so long as it doesn't negatively impact on the brotherhood and sisterhood between China and Pakistan should not be viewed as a problem at all between uh as far as China is concerned. We hope Pakistan will have good relations with as many countries in the world as possible and we hope Pakistan will know what to do and what it will be the right thing to do. And I truly believe Pakistan will be a fierce defender of the legitimate interest of the Islamic world as well as the Muslim people as a whole as well as defending the legitimate interests of any other Muslim countries in the world including countries in the Middle East.
Uh, Victor, what do you make of, you know, obviously the Americans uh and observers of this war in just two short weeks have have noted quite rightly that uh Iran has disabled or destroyed u key US um radar systems uh you know at at its military bases and strewn throughout the region in Jordan and Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And then of course help deplete US interceptors that are also in the hands of its allies um to defend against incoming Iranian projectiles and munitions. And then of course we saw this mad, you know, rush across to East Asia where the Americans were um were I I think taking the the South Korean the the THAAD system, the THAAD radar that the US had had uh installed in South Korea and also some of their Patriot missile supply back to the region, not to defend Persian Gulf countries, but to defend Israel. How is this going to resonate with the South Koreans and the Japanese particularly who have almost been, you know, sort of pumped to into an extreme anti-China position in recent years? How are they going to view this? This is their ally security, a guaranter of security. Now what?
Well, first of all, in recent days, I've been frequently asked by Western media as to which country is winning, which country is losing this war of aggression against Iran. Now, I always say you do not need to rush to any conclusion because as of today, several things are very obvious and the world can see with their own eyes as to what's happening. First of all, Iran has fully punctured the invisibility of the anti-missile system claimed by the United States. Is uh Iran has fully punctured the so-called uh uh iron dome or the David Sting or the other David Sling etc. all these anti-missile sister claimed by Israel. This is profound. This is of global implications. It means first of all the United States and Israel completely misunder estimated the real might and the resourcefulness of Iran. Secondly, they have proven to be uh incapable of defending themselves if Iran continues to engage in this symmetrical warfare against the United States and against Israel. It means someone must be really making a huge mistake in going into a war against Iran. Now I do not mean which one is right or which one is uh wrong but the simple truth is very simple that is the United States has fully exposed its incapability of defending itself because its anti-missile system has suffered a mortal and fatal collapse and the Israeli system likewise has suffered a mortal and fatal collapse. This is for everyone in the world to see. And this has global implications. And the country which is causing this collapse is not for example one of the largest and most important military powers in the world. It is Iran which has been sanctioned and isolated by the United States in particular and by the west for example for all these decades. and Iran can still master and mobilize enough resources and capabilities to inflict such mortal wounds on the United States and on Israel. And even as of today, no one knows what Iran still has and what Iran may still unleash if the war continues. Now for Japan and ROK for example, they are caught up in a binder because for these two countries they depend on the oil and gas uh exported from the Gulf region almost up to about 90% 95% if not up to 100%. And if they dare to be militarily involved uh on the side of the United States and Israel against Iran, they may suffer the consequences. They may be penalized and punished by Iran not only right away but probably for many months or years or even longer in terms of cutting off energy supply to these countries. And the fact that
The United States is running out of ammunition or defense system. The TH system, you name it, is shocking for everyone in the world. It's shocking to Japan, and they are okay because they thought that the United States is invisible. They are unpenetrable and they have all the foolproof systems in the world, and they depend on the United States to save their own neck. The reality is just the opposite. The United States has fully exposed its vulnerability and the vulnerability, and what will be the future if war breaks out between the United States and any other country in the world. Therefore, I think it is time to call on Washington to restore their own sanity. Don't use war as an instrument. It's not going to make America great again. It probably will bleed the United States profusely if they continue to use war as their first choice. War, according to Chinese philosophy, allow me to mention for thousands of years, we always believe war should always be the last resort. And any country, any political groups which thrive on shooting from their hips will eventually suffer the consequences. If you read "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers," a book published by Professor Paul Kennedy, now a very distinguished professor at Yale, he always talked about overreach. I think the United States has overreached. Israel has overreached. Don't overreach because by overreaching, you will overreach for your own demise eventually.
"That's right. Overextension of empires is what's always felled them in the end. Um, a quick response from you before I get to my last question. Uh, Japan has turned down Trump's, US President Trump's, request to provide, uh, you know, accompany ships to the Strait of Hormuz, as have basically every single NATO ally of the United States. Um, and then the US president hinted that he might cancel his trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Just a quick response from you. How was that viewed in the Chinese media and the political chattering classes?"
"Well, first of all, the originally proposed state visit by President Trump to China, uh, uh, is generally viewed as a very important event. But the whole planning started back in, for example, November and December 2025. It's way beyond before the outbreak of this hostility involving Iran, launched by the United States and Israel. That's number one. Number two is that right now, I think the White House, as well as the Secretary of the Treasury, Bessent, said that if President Trump has to delay or postpone the state visit to China, it has nothing to do with anything else but with the fact that President Trump's presence in Washington is direly demanded because the United States is still in the middle of this war. Therefore, actually, one way is for the United States to make up its mind to stop the war right away. So his visit to China will not be, uh, postponed. That's number one. Number two, if the United States wants to continue with this war, uh, causing more and more, uh, upheaval and havoc to international energy security, economic security, financial security, for example, then probably President Trump will have nowhere to go other than bunkering down in Washington D.C. And the more and the longer this war is prolonged, the more consequences the United States will suffer. I'm afraid that this war, if it is continued, the Republican Party most likely will lose either the House or the Senate or both in the midterm election. And if that happens, President Trump may become a lame-duck president, and he will be really cornered after January the 20th, 2027. So for his own political consideration, for the Republican Party's consideration, and for containing the three major crises, the energy crisis, the economic crisis, and the financial crisis, which are brewing right now as we speak in the United States and in the world from exploding into one of the most lethal and destructive crises in human history, I would call on President President Trump to stop the war right away and to find a dignified way to stop the war and to make peace with Iran. Never dare to invade and launch a war of aggression against a country with more than 5,000, if not 6,000 years of history and civilization, a proud Muslim country, a proud Shia Muslim country in the world. You dare to invade Iran, be prepared for the consequences. Don't waste the blood of the American soldiers on the soil of Iran."
"Victor, and finally, you laid out this case very well in your previous response about how the, um, nobody expected a middle state, a global south state like Iran to punch such a hole, um, through the illusion of US and Israeli military superiority by taking out their eyes and ears, um, radar systems, by, um, by impacting their defense capabilities severely, right? Their ability to intercept. People are shocked by this Iranian military response, but now there's also an economic response in this war. And Iran made sure, and it warned that it would do this, that it would expand horizontally. We have in this region been subject to US sanctions. I mean, it's a kind of bullying, right? It's a bullying at the core of, you know, how we eat, how we live. Um, and, uh, China experienced this, right, off the bat when Trump, uh, you know, assumed his presidency in the White House with the threat of tariffs, which had the unintended consequences of, um, having the world see what China is through TikTok. It was quite remarkable. Everyone sort of, you know, that that that threat from Trump on on tariffs, 100% tariffs, 150, 200% tariffs, had people suddenly exposed to what China is and a great deal of interest and a great deal of rethinking of of what China is in the West. Um, but taking over the Strait of Hormuz, and then this is quite f been fascinating for us here at the cradle the last few days, just watching how Iran is almost using this economic leverage to civilize the world and draw it back into realism and away from the hegemons' bluster, the bluster that we've all gotten used to around the world. You know, deal with us respectfully and responsibly, and we will let your ships through, providing you not supporting aggressions against the Islamic Republic. It's quite a revelation that a middle state could use economic power to tame the jungle this way. And so far, it seems to be working, you know, with with countries that are deeply, uh, antagonized by this Iranian move. You know, the the Germans, the French, the, uh, the British, as well as obviously the Americans and their other allies, but, you know, who who refusing to call the Iranians and say, "Can you let this vessel through?" are now having, in fact, to behave, you know, um, and and refuse Trump's, uh, demand that they help escort ships aggressively through the Strait of Hormuz. So, it's not just military reality that Iran has introduced to the world. It's an economic one too, Shirley."
"Well, first of all, I'm very much delighted to see that the Secretary General of the United Nations, Mr. Guterres, openly and publicly said this war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran is a war of aggression. I'm very happy that President, Mr. Guterres, said the right thing about how to characterize the nature of this war. That's number one. Number two is that if you really believe that the United States and Israel don't have any right or justification to launch this war of choice, this war of aggression against another sovereign country, independent country, why do you want to be involved in this? Is that right? If this war is fully blessed by the Security Council of the United Nations, I think all the US allies, uh, many of them, several dozens of them, probably will have no other choice but to go to war together with the United States. But if this war is being called upon by the Secretary General of the United Nations as a war of aggression, why do you want to be tainted by this war of aggression against another sovereign country which is in violation of international law, in violation of the United Nations Charter, and after the outbreak of this war, they already committed so many other crimes. For example, I would say the mass killing of the Iranian, uh, leaders, including spiritual leaders, military leaders, government leaders, etc., is not the high point of the United States or Israel. It's a, it's a state-sponsored. It's not, it's a state terrorism. It's not just state-sponsored terrorism. And the bombing of the world heritage site, for example, including that palace of mirrors, etc., is a crime against humanity. Why do you want to single out a palace which is generally believed as a world heritage site to bomb? You want to eradicate the Iranian civilization, the Persian civilization? You want to claim that you are the most glorious nation of the species in that part of the world. This, in my best judgment, based on my study of the law, is a crime against humanity. And to bomb out and killing up to about 200 schoolgirls is a war crime. There should be no shirking of responsibility. It's a war crime. For any country, for any military to kill almost up to about 200 innocent schoolgirls is nothing short of a war crime. So I hope investigations will be conducted eventually in due course into all these wars of aggression, war crimes, crimes against humanity, for example, and crimes against mankind. So I hope justice will be done and the root causes giving rise to this war will be completely taken out and the evil as represented by Jeffrey Epstein and whoever who is behind him will be fully expunged in the world of today, making the world a better place, a safer place, and in its turn, making America truly great again. So I hope President Trump will not do the wrong thing which will not make America great. I hope President Trump will do the right thing and keep a great distance from Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and be aware that everyone in that circle needs to expunge themselves of the evil of Jeffrey Epstein. Thank you. Victor Gao, lawyer, professor, and straight shooter. Thank you for being on Rock the Cradle with us. I really enjoyed speaking with you, and we very much hope to have you back on again soon as things develop."
"Thank you very much, Shami. It's a great pleasure. Thank you."
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