Transcription
The video is purely educational and is not financial advice. Trading involves financial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of profits. Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Hello friends, I am Praveen Khettan. Welcome to today's next episode. In the last episode, we discussed silver, whether silver will rise or fall. In today's episode, we are discussing gold. Many people are confused about gold. Some are saying that gold will go to 1.5 lakh, some are saying gold will go to 2 lakh, and many people believe that gold will now fall. So, we will correlate the complete technical analysis of gold along with fundamental analysis, world economy, demand, and supply data, and we will also look at the important levels of gold. So, this video will be very helpful in deciding whether to buy gold now or sell gold.
Friends, this is our gold chart, MCX Futures stock. Now, the problem with this is that you will not get data before 2016. Now, for analysis, you need slightly older data than this. So, we will use the international market data for gold here. Okay? For trends and levels, later we will also compare with India and understand our Indian levels in this video. So, what is it? Where will it fall, where should one buy, or what are the support and resistance levels? So, we will study or analyze this.
Please note, the objective of this video is not to give you tips or advice. Understand carefully. The objective of this video is to focus on how to do analysis. And people, even after taking lakhs of rupees, cannot teach you this kind of analysis, which you get to learn here for free. But the problem is? It's free knowledge, so you don't value it. You might think, "What is this? This is a YouTuber, just passing time to run his channel." But actually, go and see my profile and biodata in the description of this video. You will understand what experience I hold.
Anyway, this is our international market data, and it's a daily chart. We don't get a complete overall outlook in this daily chart. So, I am converting it to a weekly chart. If you look at the weekly chart, this rally started around 2000 or 2001. It was very good. Before that, it was consolidating sideways in a range for a long time. Of course, there was volatility. But here, we see that we got a price increase of about 650% approximately. You can say 600-650% growth. We saw this much growth in the last 10-11 years, up to 2011.
Now, if anyone says that the price of gold does not fall, that is incorrect. If you look at the rally that happened, we also saw a correction accordingly. In this rally, we saw a good correction of about 50%. Meaning, gold, which was $280 per ounce, went to about $1300, and then it also came down to $1000 or $100. That is, a 50% correction happened. Until 2016, our gold was continuously falling. It's worth noting that our gold was continuously falling until 2016. So, it's not like you will buy at the top and then expect it to rise further. Corrections are also seen in gold. We did not see corrections only here. If you look at the rally here, in this rally too, you see a correction. Almost, you can say, about 50% correction was seen. Meaning, if you bought gold at the absolute bottom, rock bottom, at $1166, it went as high as around $2000 per ounce, and after that, it also gave a correction and came back to $1645 per ounce. So, after rallies, you are seeing 50-50% corrections in gold, aren't you?
So, saying that it will fall by 50% from here after the rally. We will understand that later. Will it fall or rise from here? We will understand that later. But I am showing you an observation of historical data. So, for whether it will fall or not, it is very important to understand one thing, that is, the concept is about momentum, or you can say, the strength of the trend.
See, there is a very simple theory. If I tell you to walk a marathon, you will walk 10 km, 20 km marathon because it's a relaxed walk. Obviously. But if I say to run, to sprint, then after 100 meters or 200 meters of sprinting, you will be out of breath because you will require a lot of energy. So, if the price increases a lot in a short time, it's very high growth. For such high growth, the whole world has to invest money. So, will the whole world always keep investing that much money? Will that much strength, that much money flow, be maintained? No. So, this is where trend analysis works its magic, and it tells you which situation you are in, after which you might see a correction.
So, let's analyze. So, if we look at this chart, the international market chart, I will draw the trend here. So, first, the trend I have taken here is something like this, and here the degree is 10°. So, this won't work because when you move the chart up and down, this degree will change. So, for that, you have to fix the chart. So, right-click, go to settings, and come to "Lock Price Ratio Scale and Lines." Lock the price ratio. Roughly, I am keeping it at 4.5. Okay? I am keeping this. I have done okay. So, here it is forming around 9.18°. It might be slightly up or down, it doesn't make much difference. So, this was our long-term growth. Why am I calling it long-term growth? Understand. I am zooming it. So, you will see X and Y zoom equally. Now, someone will say it's on a log scale, this and that. I made a video in September 2024 as well. After that, Nifty has been continuously falling. And there I told you that it will fall and up to where it will fall. There too, some people talked about log scale and normal scale, so forget all that. Here, this is a magnet, it sticks. Both increase and decrease. So, you see, this trend from 2001 to 2005, it followed the same trend. After that, what happened? Our price went into a sharper range. Okay? The range became sharper. Meaning, the price started increasing rapidly. So, at what degree was it increasing? So, if we look from here, our price, technically, if I average it out, it was increasing at around 24° approximately. It went slightly below this, then went up. Then, if we zoom in here, this is the matter of 2011, this is the data. So, if we zoom in here, you see this scale, see, all these prices are hitting above this trend and going up. So, this degree was around 49° or 58°, the price went above it. And then the price went around 59°. And if we zoom in further, our price increased very rapidly. Very rapidly, a sharp price was seen here. So, this was around 80-85%, 82° approximately, we saw the price. After this, the correction started here, and our price became even sharper. Meaning, this was the last leg of the rise. Almost 87-85°, approximately, we saw a rise here. Roughly, you can say around 85-86°. Or you can say around 90°. The price is going around that. It's increasing that rapidly. Okay? So, where will so much money come from? So, we will also look at fundamentals. World demand and supply data is very excellent data that I have extracted for you, and you will enjoy seeing it. You should understand it carefully and watch it too.
So, let's come back. So, this was the situation of 2011. So, what is the situation today? If we look, if we establish the long-term trend, if I establish it by taking these trends. Okay? Something like this. In the long term, we have 13°. Something in between these two. And after that, our price increased even more rapidly from here. After that, what happened? Our price increased even more rapidly here. See this. So, if you say I should take something like this, then let's take it. It doesn't make much difference. It's around 49°. Look, here too, our price came around 49°. It's 24°, and then approximately here, 58°, 49°. This trend was there. So, here too, it increased at 49°. After that, we got a very good rise. A very sharp, sharp trend, meaning at 70°, the price increased a lot, and after that, even more, you can say, I have never seen such a sharp price in my life because it hasn't happened yet. At 78°, this was the rise. After this, the recent data, I have the weekly chart on. Keep in mind, it's a weekly chart. I have taken it to draw the trend to get an idea. Later, you can change it to daily, it doesn't matter. Now, this is almost 86°. This is the same degree at which the price fell. Now, if you believe that the price will fall from here, then the first support we will see is around 78°. The second will be around 71°, and then around 30-49°, which is maintaining our long-term growth rate. And finally, I expect that gold will fall on this trajectory. So, if a correction is seen, it will be a very strong correction. We have also seen historically that we get corrections up to 50%. So, if we talk about this being our consolidation phase. Obviously, this is our consolidation phase in gold. Okay? From 2020 to 2023. Okay? The price was moving at this level. So, the price started increasing from here. Because this was a breakout of the structure, and it started from here. So, if you look at Fibonacci retracement, technically, our correction should be, if we consider a correction up to 50%, then our, and the price falls from here. Let's suppose. So, our 50% correction is coming around $2945. So, if you go to India, to Indian MCX, you will see a similar thing on MCX. I am removing the lock ratio from the settings. And our price started increasing after this consolidation phase. So, if you want, we can take the date. The date will give us a very good idea. Okay? That when we marked the consolidation from. So, this breakout happened around March 11, 2024, right? So, we will take it before that. So, Gold Futures, March 11, 2024. I am removing the lock ratio. March 11, 2024. See, somewhere here our breakout happened. Okay? This was our consolidation, which broke somewhere in March 2024. So, let's take this out. This, so the consolidation phase is ours. But it was consolidating here too. So, it's saying around March 11. So, it's March 18, so this is March 4. Somewhere in between. So, the swing started from here. So, if our swing started from here. So, we will take a correction. If we assume the price falls from here, then our 50% correction is. Meaning, this rate of 124,000, the price may, I am repeating, may correct to the 50% Fibonacci level, that is, a level around 92,000 can be seen. Okay? And can it fall further after this? That depends. Because corrections in gold have been seen up to 78.6% as well. Okay? So, it's difficult to say this. But for now, if we consider a correction of up to 50% in the trend, then a correction of up to 90,000 can be seen in gold.
Now, regarding the fact that our gold has been in consolidation for a long time. Okay? But now, if we talk about the trend, the previous consolidation was from 2016 to, see, 2018-20, it ran in the same range, which was around 30-32 thousand per tola for gold in India. Now, if we look from 32,000, this is almost four times. It has become almost four times, and the price in the international market has not increased much. Okay? If seen, it has increased more in India. One reason for this is also the depreciation of the rupee. See, in 2011, the rupee was around ₹44 to the dollar, and now the dollar is ₹88. So, that difference also affects the price of gold. If it were still 44, our gold would not be ₹124,000, it would be half. Meaning, roughly ₹64,000 per tola. So, because our rupee has depreciated significantly against the dollar, our gold has also increased significantly. Now, why is the rupee depreciating? The rupee might be depreciating because the dollar is strengthening, or our rupee is actually depreciating a lot due to high imports, and we have to make a lot of payments, and buy dollars. Anyway, let's look at the impact of the rupee once.
So, if you look at the USD INR chart here. Okay? So, this is USD INR. Take this, take this, take this. Okay? So, if you see, the rate in November was around ₹43.4. Right? And if you multiply that with gold, there will be a big difference in the rate. And here, it's around ₹89-88. So, ₹40. So, you can understand that due to the depreciation of the rupee, you have got a 100% gain in the price of gold. Right? So, this is a big problem. Now, another thing we need to see is whether the rupee is actually weakening and the dollar is becoming expensive, or the dollar is strengthening. For that, you should look at the DXY index. So, what the DXY index does is it tells you against all other currencies. So, if DXY is increasing, it means the dollar is strengthening a lot. But if DXY is decreasing, it means the dollar is weakening. So, any value above 100 means the dollar is strengthening a lot. Any value below 100 means the dollar is weak.
Well, if we look, since 2022, the dollar has been continuously weakening because the US government is printing a lot of currency or taking loans. Okay? There is a debt crisis there, so there is a problem. So, now it remains to be seen that the US government's dollar currency has been continuously weakening for the last 3 years. Right? And even after that, our rupee is weakening further. Meaning, the dollar is becoming expensive against the rupee. So, if you think that the dollar is also strengthening, then instead of ₹88, the rupee might have hit ₹120 or ₹120. So, be thankful that the dollar is weakening. That's why your rupee is saved. Otherwise, there would have been more pressure on the rupee.
So, should we buy gold today or not? What trading strategy should we apply? I will tell you that too. But we have some interesting data on international demand and supply of gold, which we will discuss. So, this is our gold data. It's quite important. I will show you a lot. There are interesting numbers. Look carefully, you will enjoy it. So, this is for 2023-24, 25 is not over yet. So, if we look at 23-24, technically, the world gold demand, okay? Increased by only 2%. Only 2%, whereas our gold started increasing. It increased significantly in 2024. Look at the chart, your memory will be refreshed. Let's show the chart again. So, how much did our gold increase in 2024? In 2023-24, how much did gold increase? See this. In 2023, this was our price level around September, and let's go back to January, February, or June, October 2022, December, January. Here it is, January. From January 2023 to 2024, see April, August, October, November. See, our gold increased by 50%. But if you look at the international market, our total gold demand increased by only 2% year-on-year. Brother, how did the price of gold increase so much? See, it's more about investment, where the money is being invested. Because these people, they greatly influence, what do you call it? They influence the price a lot. So, if you look here, the investment segment saw an increase of 24%. It went from 950 to 1181. Out of this, you can say that bars and coins decreased. ETFs also saw a slight decrease here. But overall, investment increased to 1181. So, we will discuss this. Okay? And if we look quarter-on-quarter, for 2024 and 25, Quarter 2. So, Quarter 2 of 2024, Quarter 2 of 2025. Our investment saw a year-on-year change of 78%. Meaning, the demand for gold in investment increased by about 200 tons. Okay? And if we look at bars and coins, our total increased by about 11%. If we look at ETFs, 170 tons went into ETFs. ETFs mean that there are many ETFs that hold physical gold to back their ETF contracts. Okay? So, if we look here, regarding international market gold demand, total supply will obviously be equal to total demand. Why? Because whatever is produced in mines goes to the market to be sold. Assume this. So, if they increase mining, the price of gold will fall. So, gold mining is also controlled so that we can control the rate of gold. Okay? So, if you look at the year-on-year change, in 2023-24, our mining increased by only 0.29%. In a way, mining increased. Okay? Because if we mine more, more gold will be produced, and that much gold will be consumed. People will buy it. But the price will be affected. So, supply affects the price of gold more than demand. Keep this in mind.
Anyway, so if we look here, in 2023-24, in jewelry, okay, around 40% in jewelry inventory. Okay? It did not increase in consumption. Consumption decreased. Well, this data is not that important. Let's move on. Overall, if we look at jewelry demand in 2024, quarter-on-quarter, from Quarter 2 of 2024 to Quarter 2 of 2025, our jewelry demand decreased by 17% year-on-year. Meaning, India does the most. So, so, if you look at this, I will show you all the countries. So, roughly, it's 17% negative. And the second largest is China. Here too, it's 20% negative. Meaning, there is absolutely no jewelry demand in the market. Meaning, the end consumer could not buy. Already, when our gold was 74-75,000, people ran away. Meaning, our gold demand decreased then. If you look at the chart, in 2024, our gold reached around 70-80,000. Since then, our demand has been decreasing. Meaning, people have almost stopped buying jewelry. Almost nobody. So, overall, our demand shrunk by 14%. Okay? So, it is written here, jewelry demand in selected countries.
Now, if we look at bars and coins, if we look at the latest quarter-on-quarter data, this is the data for our quarter. So, here, bars and coins have seen the most, around 40% here. So, let me show you a bit. First, look at the year-on-year 2010-11 for bars and coins. So, in 2011, when our gold prices increased, it is visible here that China bought 83 tons of gold. In 2011 too. Okay? And Thailand bought 42 tons. Vietnam bought 22 tons. Turkey bought 31 tons. 45 tons went to Europe. Meaning, our demand increased a lot. Meaning, overall, we can say world demand was 23% high. So, obviously, the price was justified. The price increased, was pushed, because so much demand came. From 2010 to 2011, something that was 10-15,000 increased to 28-29,000, right? So, now, if we look at the situation here in 2024, if we talk about India, here, we have received about 54 tons of extra gold compared to 2023-24. We have imported more. There is a year-on-year change of about 29%. Here, it's about 20% year-on-year. If we look here, there was a 45% year-on-year change, and here it was 4%. But if we combine both, the total limit. Here you were to see 14, 83, 82, 22. Here you see only 58, 56. After that, there is no major country that has demanded extra gold in 2024. So, you will have to go to the latest data. So, we are talking about the data for bars and coins. So, if we look at the latest, then China again in two quarters has bought a good amount, 26, 126, and 118, meaning our approximately 250 tons. It has reached this. Here, you are seeing that the annual demand, which was 266 tons, has been reached by China in just two quarters, approximately 250 tons, roughly. Okay? So, they have taken a good amount of gold. Now, the question is, will they take more? It depends on how much they buy year-on-year. So, if we talk year-on-year, they bought about 45% more this year than last year. Okay? So, will we see more? Look, already, if we look at the year-on-year change, Quarter 2 to Quarter 2 of 2025, Quarter 2 of 2024. We have already bought 44% more gold. So, if we talk about last year, compared to last year, in 2024, China's was 345 tons, and we have already taken around 250 tons. So, there are 100 tons left, and six months are still remaining. But in other countries, we are not seeing much demand, if we talk about tons. Okay? So, we are not seeing much demand.
Secondly, if we look at the latest data, then quarter-on-quarter, meaning from Quarter 2 to Quarter 2 of 2025, the year-on-year change is 44%. But if we look from the last quarter to this quarter, our demand has decreased. Meaning, all the countries have reduced their gold purchases. Meaning, the price of gold has increased, so they have reduced buying gold. Here, the demand is 8 tons less. Here, it's 9 tons less. Meaning, after looking at the data for the quarter, we are realizing that the demand for gold has started decreasing in bars and coins. Okay?
On the other side, if you talk about ETFs. Okay? Consumption is not that significant. Okay? Let's leave gold prices for now. If we talk about India ETFs, then our ETFs year-on-year change, meaning it was 16%. Okay? So, this was tremendous. If we talk about tonnage year-on-year, North America had 292. So, in this way, if we talk about global, then our global average is about 16 tons, sorry, 16% year-on-year change in ETFs. So, these are the top 10 physically backed gold ETFs by AUM in tons. So, you will not see even one ETF from India here that is top, which is holding gold to back their ETF. So, because of this, this problem is also arising in our ETF pricing, and there is a premium in the gold spot price. There is a significant difference. They are not able to maintain it. Anyway, so why are they not able to maintain it? Because actually, they are not holding physical gold as much as they should.
So, from the data we have seen, we can conclude that recently our gold demand has decreased slightly in Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 of 2025. Our jewelry demand is completely finished because the rate has increased a lot. As far as gold buying is concerned, China has bought around 250 tons in two quarters, and it will not exceed 350-400 tons. So, maybe in the next quarter, they will do normal buying, not excessively exaggerated buying that pushes the rate. They will do normal buying, which does not affect the rate much. So, the rush that was here, I feel it is slowing down. And other countries are backing off. In India too, it has gone down. Other countries are not buying. How much will China alone pick up? Right? So, here you can understand that we might see some correction.
Let's come back to the chart. See, for this, in the previous video, in the silver video, I explained a concept of Dow Theory. So, I will not repeat that again. Just watch that previous video. I am also giving the link in the description. So, what you have to do is, actually, the price tests its level here. So, what you will do is, as our price went up here, then came down, then went up, then came down, right? So, the price tests its level after going up. So, after testing, if it is found that it cannot cross this level and go up, then you have to wait for the previous swing low. Wait for it to break that swing low. So, when the price breaks this swing low, on whatever day it breaks, we will not trade on that day. From the next day, we will start shorting. And this will be the end of the gold rush. Whatever gold is running now, the FOMO that has been created, that will end. So, you have to wait for the swing low to break. Once the swing low is broken down, then you can see the next downward level. Okay? So, this strategy works well. And why is it so? What is the theory, what is the mechanism? You will get a good idea by watching the previous video.
So, friends, hopefully, you liked this video. And if you want to learn professional trading in a similar way, then visit PraveenKhettan.com. You are getting courses at very affordable rates with mentorship. And also share this video with your friends because by sharing knowledge, knowledge increases. And if you don't have time at all to trade and analyze yourself, then you can take advice from a SEBI registered research analyst. Visit Malamaal.com for that. See you in the next video. Until then, bye-bye. Take care.