Transcription
嗨大家好我是Tammy。好，我们今天继续来聊一下，就是AI还有台湾的未来。上次那一支影片发布之后，那有些人会提到说，还是就是那种啊哦，就是自己要努力啊哦，不要怪别人之类的。我这边要郑重澄清一下哈，我从来就没有说哦，去嫉妒那些有钱人，嫉妒那些科技业的，这完全不是我的本意。而且很多人都会有个想象，说当我们在讨论所谓的结构，社会公平正义的时候，我们就是在嫉妒有钱人。哎，这个是大错特错。
一般正常的社会啊，大部分的平民老百姓，不会没事吃饱撑着去嫉妒有钱人。大部分像我现在做蛋糕生意，我的客户基本上都是中产阶级，或者是富豪有钱人。我的客人很多都是有私人飞机，在Ibiza这边有好几栋别墅，然后在Sant Tropez一个别墅，在New York一个别墅，在巴黎，怎么样怎么样。你说我嫉妒他们吗？没有哎，我当然不会嫉妒他们呢。我爱他们爱的要死。来呦，我来帮你做蛋糕哦，因为他们发小费也是这样子哈，50欧元，50欧元这样子发。以前我们做这边有钱人的外烩，都是这样啊，他们给小费给的大方的。然后他们找我做蛋糕哦，当然开心死，因为他们预算都很充足。所以我可以服务他们，我得到我的成就感，然后我可以经营我的小生意。照理来说，一个正常的社会，我们这种平民百姓，我们本来就没有要变有钱人呢。我们本来就有自己的梦想，然后自己小店，小生意，小日子，这是我们很开心的事情。所以，并不是所有人都想要变成有钱人的。所以这一点请大家不要误会哈哈。
我今天在讲的是一个正常的社会，他照理来说是这样。比如说，有少部分的人他有很多的财富，但是大部分的人哎，他日子也过得不错。虽然没有大富大贵，但是有小康，这个是一个很好的社会。可是如果一个社会，他的贫富差距越来越大，然后有钱人越来越少，然后大部分的人都没有钱。这些有钱人他再怎么努力，他也没有办法制造工作机会给所有的人，对不对？所以势必有很多人，他连生存都没办法。我在讲的是这件事情哦。
为什么我现在会聊到这些事情，是因为啊，我在比如我做网站，然后我想说哎，那既然YouTube现在赚不到什么钱，因为Google都没给我钱嘛，现在Google很小气嘛。好，那我就来把流量导到我的网站，然后做一些东西，贡献我的一些专长，然后给需要的人。这样我可以多赚一点点钱。我原本是打这个如意算盘吗？所以我就开始卖一些，比如说PDF。在做这些事情的时候，我就想到，嗯，我的客户是谁呢？嗯，可能就是在做小品牌的这些个人工作者。那他需要什么？我今天教他品牌设计，我可以帮助到他什么？我会希望你们可以消费的起我的服务嘛。所以 I must think about how these people who buy my products make money. How can my products align with this path to making money? And then I happened to see Jian Lifeng, he is now making many videos talking about AI. So next, we enter a part where I want to talk about the current situation in Taiwan. Why do I feel so strongly? It's because I mentioned 1% and 99% in my last video. This is something everyone is already talking about, and the wealth gap will widen in the future. But today I actually saw another video, and I was very unhappy. I don't know who came up with the title. "Leverage AI to become a 1% super talent." Seeing this title, I rolled my eyes again. Are you telling us to go to Jianzhong and Taida again? Teach everyone how to become that 1% talent. I believe they know that 1% equals 1%. 1% will not become 50%. Because the real 1% doesn't need you to teach them. Hah, I don't understand. The real top 1% talent doesn't need you to teach them. Damn it, they are already on the path of AI geniuses. This title itself is illogical and mathematically unsound.
I am also considering why the Taiwanese government is going in this direction now. It should be said that I understand the difficulties of the Taiwanese government, but I think most people also need to know what we are doing. First, how has Taiwan been biased towards the technology industry for a long time? The technology industry is basically Taiwan's "mama's boy," meaning the whole family puts all their resources into it. Siblings, the older sister might have to work and take care of the family, and the younger brother also has to help with things. Only this eldest son is the hope of the family. He doesn't have to do chores, he doesn't have to worry about anything. He just needs to study hard, go to Jianzhong and Taida. This eldest son is very promising. He really studied hard and brought glory to the family. He went out and made a lot of money and became the world's number one. This eldest son returned home with honor, but saw that his siblings were all very haggard. Why? Because the family gave all its resources to this eldest son. For example, other siblings also have to work and earn money. But if they earn 100 yuan, they have to pay 20 yuan to the family for family use. This eldest son, in order to bring glory to the family, the family gave him some R&D subsidies, etc. So this eldest son only needs to pay 10 yuan. If he earns 100 yuan, this eldest son only needs to pay 10 yuan to the family. Then, because this eldest son needs to sell goods to the United States, in order to make more money when selling goods to the United States, the family decided to make the New Taiwan Dollar weaker. So if he sells a dollar worth of goods to the United States, he can only earn 25 yuan. But if you make the New Taiwan Dollar weaker, he can earn 32 yuan for a dollar worth of goods. Wow, doesn't he earn more overall? But at the same time, his siblings, because the New Taiwan Dollar has become less valuable, you know Taiwan is small, the family is small. The family still needs to import some things from abroad. So their consumption becomes more expensive because you need more money to buy foreign goods. So his siblings not only have to pay a higher proportion of taxes, but also have tighter consumption. Not to mention many general daily necessities, or for example, transportation, which requires gasoline. These are all imported. Siblings have to bear these more expensive living expenses. So, in other words, the siblings are enduring these lives just to subsidize this more promising eldest son for the family. The siblings also work very hard, but no matter how hard they work, because they have to pay so much, these siblings cannot have better resources like the eldest son. So you say these siblings, to be honest, they don't have much to brag about. If they want to start a business, they can't succeed because they have no money. The eldest son returned home, returned with glory, and the whole family welcomed him. He really brought great honor to the family. The eldest son saw his siblings, why do they look like they are not very successful? It's not that I don't love this family, but I'm sorry, my older sister, my younger brothers, they look really not so good. I also want to help them, but what they are doing is not making money. The eldest son thinks, where should the money he earns be invested? What kind of investment? So the eldest son thinks, I'd better buy a house. Buying a house is safer because I see my siblings are really not so good. It's not my fault, we have to manage our finances. The eldest son then invested this money into real estate, and housing prices rose. His siblings began to bear high housing prices. Not only did food, clothing, housing, and transportation become more expensive, because the Taiwan Dollar is still depreciating, and housing prices are also unaffordable. And nothing is going well. At this time, the eldest son also thought, it's not that I'm unwilling to help my siblings. If I invest my money in my siblings, it's destined to be a losing business. As the eldest son, I must make money for this family. So the eldest son reluctantly, haha, I don't know if they were reluctant, they continued to invest this money in real estate and various technology industries that the eldest son is engaged in, such as stocks, making the eldest son richer and richer. So the eldest son's mentality is that only by becoming richer and richer, and earning more and more money, can this family not collapse. Siblings, you just have to bear with it. For the sake of the family. And recently, the eldest son also said something, which is that siblings, you have to learn AI and have competitiveness, and then you can be the 1% eldest son. Hahaha, the above is the story of Taiwan now. Hah.
So now we return to me talking about the Taiwan crisis report. Taiwan's long-term development for 30 years has been entirely focused on the technology industry. This is what I asked Gemini. I also use AI, okay? I am a promising sibling. I asked Gemini to help me categorize some information. It said that through the Industrial Innovation Act, the technology industry enjoys huge R&D tax credits. The electronics industry's effective tax rate has been consistently below 10%. So cool. And traditional service industries must pay the full 20% profit-seeking enterprise income tax. Then there is resource crowding out. The technology industry consumes a huge amount of resources in Taiwan. TSMC alone is expected to consume 12.5% of Taiwan's total electricity consumption by 2025. The government invests over 75% of its annual R&D budget in the information sector. Then there are the hidden costs of policy. The central bank has kept the exchange rate low for a long time to facilitate exports. The Taiwan Dollar is undervalued by about 55%. This means siblings, you have to bear with it. The Taiwan Dollar is not worth much now. So the money you save, the New Taiwan Dollars you hold, should not be worth so little. The salary you originally received could buy more things, but for the sake of this eldest son, please bear with it. Now The Economist has already said that this is "Taiwan Syndrome," which is a development model of severe dietary imbalance. BTW, the Taiwanese government has strongly protested this matter. The Taiwanese government has come out and said, "We don't have Taiwan Syndrome, we are not sick." They seem quite angry. Oh no, this video of mine will be accused of inciting discord, right? It definitely will be. But it's not. Okay, okay, please continue to listen to my explanation, okay? Our GDP is very beautiful. Our per capita GDP in 2025 will exceed Japan and South Korea, about $38,000. But nearly 70% of workers' salaries are below the average. The salary bubble, where did the dividends of the technology industry go? The technology industry makes so much money, where did this eldest son's money go? Let me give an example. Data shows that whenever TSMC or NVIDIA announces the establishment of a factory or a center, housing prices in the surrounding areas, such as Nanzi in Kaohsiung, Taibao in Chiayi, and Baoshan in Hsinchu, will experience a leap. In 2025, housing prices in Taibao, Chiayi will increase by more than 60% in one year. This is the assetization of wealth. That is, after the 1% tech nouveau riche earn money, in Taiwan, due to the lack of other high-return investment channels, a large amount of capital flows into real estate. This is what I said earlier, this eldest son, he also loves this family very much. I also hope to share some money with my siblings, but when I see my siblings, I feel they are not promising. They haven't studied much. What they do is mediocre. If you ask me to invest money in them, they will feel that this family must rely on me, and I must support this family. So this eldest son invests all his money in real estate. And no matter how hard the siblings work, they are still $*#@*)(%#*# still a loser, OK. So this will lead to siblings, rent becomes more expensive, housing prices also become more expensive. You want to do business, almost all your money goes to the landlord. So what kind of business can you do? Basically, you can't make money. You're already full just by spending money. It's good if you don't have debt. This is why, last time, a viewer in my video said that the cost of small businesses can be lower than that of large enterprises. What makes small businesses profitable? I curiously asked this viewer, what costs? The only thing I know that makes small businesses more profitable is, for example, if your family is in a traditional industry. I've encountered this here. He runs a food truck, and his family sells beef or something. So he can buy high-quality beef at a very cheap price. Then he opens a food truck to make hamburgers and is doing very well. This is an example. It means that his family has such capital, so he can buy goods at such a cheap price. This is a special case. Ordinary people cannot. You have housing prices, land resources, just electricity and water fees, raw materials, you completely lose. You lose your pants. So back to Taiwan Syndrome, it is talking about such a severe imbalance. You put all your eggs in one basket. And Taiwan's situation is that it has been like this for 30 years. This egg has become super big. This basket can no longer be shaken. So why do I say the Taiwanese government has its difficulties? Its difficulties are that it has no choice. Its bet has been placed for 30 years. Its capital has been pressed and pressed and pressed. All its capital is bet on this eldest son. So it has no way back. Because other siblings, they don't have education. The poor are poor, the suffering are suffering. Whatever they do, it seems there is no level. There is no industry that can bring glory to the country. The Taiwanese government must maintain the wealth of this eldest son so that others can look up to this family. Siblings, although you are poor, at least you are a member of this family. Others respect you. This is what the Taiwanese government is considering. Because the government is very unhappy. The government has refuted The Economist, saying that Taiwan is technology-driven, not natural resources. And the government's explanation is that because the technology industry drives other industries. The current problem in Taiwan is that the eldest son earns a lot of money, but this money is locked in real estate and does not flow into domestic demand. This money does not flow to his siblings. So, speaking of this, I am thinking, if this eldest son truly hopes that this family can all survive well, and at the same time, bring glory to the family. So, how should we make a choice? If you are this eldest son, what should you do? The problem with the siblings now is that they also want to help the eldest son, but they cannot enter this 1%. And their survival is inherently difficult. So are there other ways to make these siblings at least a little more functional? Not so stupid, not so low education, not so poor, having nothing. Asking them to help the eldest son seems impossible. So let's talk about the government, this patriarch, and his difficulties. Why is the government afraid to touch this 1%? Because without semiconductors, Taiwan would basically collapse. Because the bets have already been placed here. Then, Taiwan's life insurance industry has 200 billion US dollars in unhedged overseas exposure. If the Taiwan Dollar appreciates significantly, let's make the Taiwan Dollar not so cheap, and let the New Taiwan Dollars owned by our people be worth more. This can cure Taiwan Syndrome. But the price is that the life insurance industry will collapse. The life insurance industry is too big to fail. If it collapses, it will trigger a systemic financial tsunami, which is also very terrifying. Then I saw Jian Lifeng's video, where he mentioned the exchange rate issue. He said that the exchange rate should be adjusted slowly, adjusted back, so that young people in Taiwan in 30 years can afford to buy a house. I just asked Gemini. In fact, the government has its difficulties. The life insurance industry in Taiwan is very, very special. There is no country in the world whose life insurance industry is like Taiwan's. Its overseas investment ratio is the highest in the world. The highest in the world, and it is the only anomaly in the world. Haha, it gave me a comparison table. Anyway, the proportion of overseas investment in various countries. Taiwan's US Treasury bonds account for more than 90% of the total, the highest in the world. Exchange rate risk and assets are extremely concentrated in the US dollar. So this is the difficulty of the Taiwanese government on the exchange rate issue.
Then, oh my, I've talked about so many sad things. Hahaha, what happened in this big family of Taiwan. Then let's talk about a little sister in this big family. This little sister is called e-commerce. Because I was thinking, Taiwan's e-commerce is very strong. Because in my last video, I was thinking about solo businesses, solo businesses. What should this company sell? Who should it sell to? I don't think a solo business is a good idea. I actually don't think so now. Let's talk about e-commerce first. E-commerce little sister. E-commerce little sister has developed extremely maturely in Taiwan. Because Taiwan is small, its logistics are very convenient and cheap. Gemini said it is a very strong tool, but a very weak industry. I asked about e-commerce because I have people around me who do e-commerce. Everyone is living well. Warehouses full of goods, and so on. They all buy things from abroad and bring them into Taiwan. So it is an upgrade of the retail industry's digitalization. It is high output value and low added value. That is, Taiwan's e-commerce turnover exceeds 400 billion Taiwan dollars annually. But the e-commerce platform itself does not produce anything. This is what I said in my last video. I was thinking, what exactly are you selling? What is Taiwan producing? Besides the strong production capacity of the technology industry. So e-commerce is not production, it is a carrier. It is strong in logistics, convenience store pickup, and so on. And Taiwan is small, with high population density and convenient transportation. So Taiwan's logistics, domestic logistics, this matter is very profitable. So Taiwan's e-commerce is more like exchanging hands. You think about the eldest son of the technology industry. He works hard to go to the United States and earns a lot of money and brings it back to Taiwan. Then Taiwanese people have money. With money, they start consuming. They buy things and buy things and buy things. But it's either foreign goods sold to Taiwanese people, or Taiwanese people selling to Taiwanese people. So it doesn't create foreign exchange. And domestic demand has limits. Taiwan only has so many people, the market will be saturated. So e-commerce companies can only compete on price to survive. So they cut each other's throats, or increase advertising. So the profits of e-commerce go to Google, Meta. In fact, it has become increasingly difficult to profit from e-commerce later. However, this matter is helpful to Taiwan. It can help the government make the public feel better. You can feel that consumption is not so expensive. Because Taiwan's logistics are strong, people can compare prices and be meticulous. This has improved people's sense of happiness. It truly has a stabilizing effect. So our e-commerce little sister is responsible for creating emotional value for everyone. She still has some use. But the problem is that it has encountered a bottleneck. You are still exchanging hands among yourselves. So it cannot go out. I have always been curious, why can't Taiwanese products be sold abroad? Except for technology products, why can't other products be sold? I haven't heard of them abroad. After introducing the e-commerce little sister, I actually return to the question of what we should do next. Because I am thinking about solo businesses. I mentioned it in the last episode. I think small businesses, small individuals have no chance of winning at all. What can you do? You say you have learned a lot of AI, you can do marketing, you can do what. But what do you sell? This is what I want to ask. What do you sell? And can what you sell offset your housing prices? Can it offset raw material prices? So because I do business myself, this pain point is really painful. In fact, this is a global problem. It's just that, to be honest, I compared Taiwan and Spain. We both face similar problems. Housing prices in Spain are also soaring, but of course not as severe as in Taiwan. Taiwan is really severe. It's just that the small island where I live is even more severe than Taiwan in terms of housing prices. Renting is more severe than in Taiwan. We have many doctors and teachers who don't have houses, and many ordinary office workers even have to live in RVs. We are homeless. So I can't help but compare these two places and see where Taiwan's advantages and disadvantages lie. For example, Spain actually has natural resources. It's not like Taiwan, which is entirely bet on one industry. Does it have natural resources? It has tourism resources, agriculture, and very strong agriculture. So no matter how things change, most countries actually have, how to say, output. I should say so. But I also face the same problem, which is that the government finds it difficult to take care of small businesses. That is to say, it is difficult to do business for small businesses. Taiwan is also like this. Small businesses are difficult to do in Taiwan. It's the same all over the world. So I think if you want to make money, when AI comes out, if you can go back to a large enterprise and secure a position, at least it will help you pay for, for example, health insurance premiums in Taiwan, or labor insurance fees. Here, at least it will help me pay social insurance fees. Hahaha, at least large enterprises can protect me. This is protection within the system. So if you can go back to a large enterprise, go back to a large enterprise. But the problem now is that this requires government help. What about small individuals? What about those who cannot return to large enterprises? So the problem we are facing is, don't put all your eggs in the technology industry. Other siblings, can we sell things abroad? Back to this e-commerce little sister. I've been thinking, because I'm abroad. For example, if we are chefs. We really see that Taiwanese gua bao was very famous before. Do you know that abroad, when people think of gua bao, who do they think of? They all say it's from Japan. Really, really, no need to be angry. We who live abroad, we are mistaken for Japanese or Koreans all the time. People see you and say, "Ah, are you from Japan?" And I say, "I'm from Taiwan." "I thought you were from Japan." So rude. Hahaha, but I have really encountered it twice. If you are Japanese, you will wear a gold medal. Hahaha, if I were Japanese, my value would immediately increase. This is brand premium. A country has a brand. So I've been thinking, why can't Taiwanese products be sold abroad? Besides many issues with international status, tax issues, and brand premium. If a country's brand is strong enough, people will buy it no matter how expensive it is. Japan, South Korea have a good international brand status. Taiwan also has shaved ice, but when people talk about shaved ice, they always say it's Japanese, it's Korean. Then its price will increase. As a chef, I have a strong feeling. When designing the menu, we must use the Japanese name. I have also added some Taiwanese elements to the menu, trying to sneak them in. But you really want customers to pay more. This brand, whose brand is stronger? Japan or South Korea? So, for Taiwan to sell products abroad, besides the practical difficulties, Taiwan's overall packaging and marketing of its own products' brands are very weak. What I mean by packaging and marketing is not design packaging. Taiwan is very strong in this. Taiwan's design aesthetic is strong. But in terms of international image and cultural narrative packaging, it is weak. Oh, speaking of this, I can make another episode. I don't think I can. Because now we are talking about national affairs. Hahaha, I really want to say some heartfelt words. Sometimes I feel that Taiwan is too self-centered in promoting Taiwan. It's a more political perspective. You know, there's a kind of "I'm from Taiwan, Taiwan is great, great, great, how great it is, how great it is." What does your greatness have to do with others? Brand matters. When we talk about a country's brand, it must be closely related to your customers. It must be able to move your customers. But I often find that when Taiwanese people talk about their country, I often see more self-感动 (self-感动 means being moved by oneself). Sorry, this sentence is very harsh, but I've held it in for a long time. But this cannot be blamed on Taiwanese people. Because we really don't appear internationally. Japanese people are not particularly good at packaging themselves. They just naturally appear internationally often. And when we appear, it's always "What's the problem with China?" So now, when others talk about Taiwan, they say, "Oh, Taiwan, is that the country with problems with China?" Oh, probably like this. Yes, it's really like this. So this relates to a country's brand. This relates to how much your products can sell abroad. Wow, there's a big difference. And because we are abroad, for example, in the kitchen, I often cook Asian cuisine. I fuse Asian cuisine with various national cuisines. Every time I do these things, we definitely, absolutely use Japanese ingredients as the main ingredient. Speaking of matcha, matcha is now very scarce in Japan. No matter how expensive it is, people want to buy it. It's gold. So I thought, how does the Japanese government respect their traditional industries and how to preserve the culture and brand of traditional industries? It's not just matcha, it's really amazing. Besides it being really amazing, how did they turn these things into a story? But before discussing these details, can the government do something? Jian Lifeng mentioned that he seemed to mention using AI to support other industries, etc. Can other industries be boosted so that the eldest son doesn't have to work so hard? Hahaha, but the eldest son also needs to share some dew with us. Hahaha, that's the concept. Eldest son, don't put all your money in real estate anymore. Keep the money in Taiwan. Let Taiwan produce other things. And if possible, can the government do something like cooperatives or a cooperative something? You can't ask everyone to be a solo business and fight alone. That won't work. You can't achieve anything. Can the government do something to help other siblings recover to normal? Hahaha.
I asked Gemini. I just said, why doesn't Taiwan's e-commerce sell products abroad? Because there are many commercial issues that I am not familiar with. And it said that most e-commerce resources are spent on how to sell imported goods cheaper to Taiwanese people. Then there is a lack of foreign trade genes. If you want to sell products abroad, you need the ability to tell brand stories and understand international regulations. Like the tea pesticide issue I just mentioned, and foreign currency cash flow processing. This is completely different from the logic of domestic e-commerce, which cuts prices, competes for free shipping, and advertises. So this eldest son of the technology industry and the e-commerce little sister, hahaha, with their strong strengths on both sides in Taiwan, can they cooperate? Can they not focus on immediate profits? This requires government intervention. You can't ask a businessman to not focus on immediate profits. It's impossible. This definitely requires government help. For example, last time I saw a viewer who was making slingshots. Hahaha, I think what he made is super cool. Of course, if he makes such a small business alone, he doesn't know how many slingshots he can produce. But I was thinking, can such a special product, such a unique product, be sold abroad? Your price can double. That is to say, you sell to Taiwanese people, you can't sell for much. I'm selling to Taiwanese people now, and I don't want to sell anymore. Hahaha, because because Taiwan's consumption, because Taiwan's prices are still lower than Europe and America, so if you sell to Taiwanese people, Taiwanese people will definitely think it's expensive. What kind of? But if you sell to Europe or America, your price can double. Many artists. Last time, a viewer said that his job was going to be replaced by AI. But if you are an illustrator, it won't be. I think what will be replaced by AI are designers, not pure artists. If you are an illustrator, you are handmade, you are safe. You just need to transform. Don't go towards that kind of design-oriented illustration. You should go towards art. For example, I just saw someone here who paints live at weddings. He paints super well. That is, he paints live with acrylic paint, painting the bride and groom, and the wedding scene. He paints super well. AI cannot replace this. You either sell it on the spot, or you can actually sell it abroad. Of course, I must say that the high-end luxury industry worldwide is tightening. I will make another video about my own business when I have time. In short, the top market is also tightening consumption. This has data. Indeed, there will be such a situation. The problem with AI marketing is that it is easy to get tired. Of course, it can help you investigate some data and find customer groups. These are not problems. But marketing, in the end, still requires human touch. And now people are increasingly tired of social media, especially AI content. So social media, in the end, still needs to be built by oneself. And marketing is still very difficult for small brands. The reason is that most people still prefer those trustworthy, reputable large brands, or large brands that have money to buy traffic. So it will be more difficult. And the most important point is demand perception. Demand perception is that if you don't live abroad, you don't know what foreigners are thinking. I think this is even something that we who live overseas can do. How can we cooperate with people in Taiwan to help Taiwan sell products abroad? Taiwanese people living overseas, we know the local market, we know what foreigners are thinking. Can we package Taiwan? And sell it. But the problem I encountered myself is that the willingness in Taiwan is not high, or there are many e-commerce matters that I am not good at. I am alone abroad, and there are things I cannot handle. What I am good at is marketing and branding, not money. Hahaha. So it may still require cooperation, or is there a way to use AI, maybe an AI plugin, to help me solve this problem? I don't know. In short, this is something everyone can think about.
So that's all for today. Let's end with some positive energy. If you like it, subscribe and share. See you next time.