Transcription
What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron. And if you're looking at your fantasy football team right now and you're one and one, or you're two and 0 and you just don't like the vibe of the locker room, or you're 0 and 2 and you're down bad and everything has gone wrong for you this season and you're looking to make a change, this is the video for you because today I am going to talk through my six must-buy trade targets for week three of the fantasy football season.
Some of these guys are buy-lows, some of them are buy-highs, some of them are buys for 2 and 0 teams, some of them are buys for 0 and 2 teams. We cover the entire spectrum of the fantasy football landscape in this video. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new.
And the first player that we are buying is Lad McConkey. Now, I will say how I kind of come about making this video every week is I set my own rest-of-season rankings over on the Patreon. patreon.com/ronstwart. You get my top 150 rest-of-season rankings. I go through, I think, 55 running backs, 65 wide receivers, 20 or so quarterbacks and tight ends, and I give you a lens of how I'm viewing each player over the course of the next 14 to 15 weeks in this fantasy football season. And then I look around at the consensus rest-of-season rankings and I figure out who I am higher on than most right now. And I really can't believe the sentiment on Lad McConkey. I've even gotten comments in my videos of, "Ron, I drafted Lad McConkey in the second round. It's all over. He's a surefire bust." And obviously, that is the name of the game. Everybody is going to overreact about their team through two weeks. But the overreaction on Lad McConkey is crazy because I actually think that, of course, the box score hasn't been great. You don't love to see Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston balling out while Lad McConkey is putting up, you know, 12, 13 PPR fantasy point type of performances. But this is maybe the best environment you could have asked for. Right now, the Chargers are leading the entire league. This is via established the runs pass rate over expectation chart, which is just on a given play, there are certain plays, right? Third and long is a passing down. First and 10 is kind of balanced and it charts essentially what your pass rate is expected to be based on down and distance and game situation. And then it finds out how much you are passing over that expectation. And through two weeks, no one is touching the Chargers. And Justin Herbert is also balling out of his mind. So if you told me, if you told me preseason, hey, Lad McConkey, you are going to get the highest pass rate over expectation from Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert through two games is going to throw five touchdown passes, no interceptions. I would have been drafting Lad McConkey at the one-two turn if you had told me that because again, remember this is Greg Roman. They just drafted Amariyon Hampton in the first round and this is supposed to be Jim Harbaugh smashmouth football that he had at Michigan with J.J. McCarthy as a run-first football team and that has not been the case.
Now, of course, Lad McConkey hasn't benefited directly from this just yet, right? He gives you 13.4 PPR points in week one, 9.8 this past week and it's frustrating, but the environment is so good and I still believe in the talent of the player enough that I'm buying. Like, I'm I'm all the way in buying at this point over a 17-game sample. There's just no way that he gets outproduced by Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston. We know last year this guy's an absolute stud. Everything we look at in the rookie receiver report, he crushed last year in terms of first downs per out run, yards per out run, targets per out run. He is efficient. He gets open and we have this data point as well from Jacob Gibbs showing that this is probably the cheapest Lad McConkey will be and I agree. Last year he went bananas with a 22.8% target share. This year he's at 23% target share. He should be fine. Yes. Did we have aspirations for 27-plus% target share? Sure. But even if he maintains the same volume as last year, a 23% target share in the highest pass rate over expectation offense versus last year where it was more run-heavy is a very big deal. So yes, he's getting the same percentage of the pie, but the pie has grown and it's actually become better because Herbert has almost taken a new step forward this season. So I'm very much in on Lad McConkey, especially given the fact that people seem to be panicking very hard on Lad.
Now, how we do these videos is so that I'm not just saying, "Hey, go out there and buy Lad McConkey, you figure out the rest." We are going to check out real trades that have happened over on FantasyCal. This is fantasycal.com/database. This is their trade database. In redraft leagues, we go one quarterback, we go three assets maximum, meaning one-for-ones or two-for-one type of trades. We'll go 10 to 14 teamer and half or full PPR. And we'll see what Lad McConkey's out there for. I will say I don't check these before the video. Oh man, I got to like refresh. I don't check these before the video. This is all candid. Uh, I've still, I don't know. You guys know me. I'm constantly experimenting with these in-season videos. Let me know if there's a better idea here in terms of how to do this. But I assume, right, this is fantasy football rankings and trades generated from like real fantasy football leagues. I think they go across Sleeper, Yahoo, all of that. Uh, and they pull these out. Now, of course, there's going to be some crazy lopsided deals here. Wow. Saquon for Lad and Devin Achan. Wow. I don't think I can get there, man. I would actually prefer the Lad side of that. I'm not even, I don't think Saquon's a sell. So, let's just keep rolling here. Uh, and we try and pick out a few real-life trades that have happened. Of course, a Miyan Williams for Lad McConkey. I'd even add an extra little plus. I like a Miyan Williams, but if you can upgrade to a real difference-maker like Lad, I would do it. Or actually, no, I I wouldn't add a lot to Miyan Williams. It'd be like a like a waiver fodder type piece. Sutton and Mason, that's very easily Lad McConkey for me. Ridley, Dobbin's easily Lad McConkey. Wow, I love Flowers and Miyan Williams. So, I'm just going to I'm going to chill on both of those. But like Diggs and Montgomery, that's easy. Debo and J.K. Dobbins for Lad McConkey, that's easy for me as well. Uh, Jacoby Myers and Jaylen Hurts. I will say I do prefer Lad McConkey over A.J. Brown rest of season. So if that's on the table, I absolutely would. Uh, and then we'll find one more here. T. Higgins for DeVonta Smith for Lad McConkey, I would do that as well.
Now our next trade target here in this video is going to be Breece Hall. I think he's actually the perfect buy-low candidate right now. The top two we're talking through are honestly buy-lows. A lot of these will be buy-lows. And with Breece Hall, he's perfect because he had an amazing week one and then all of that comes crashing down in week two when the Jets get steamrolled by the Buffalo Bills. They lose by what felt like a billion. Justin Fields gets hurt. And you go from, okay, Breece Hall is the man. 19 carries, 107 rushing yards, uh two catches, 38 yards, just super explosive, super efficient, and then that all comes crashing down with a 5.8 point performance. But here's why I am buying Breece Hall this week is because the usage was good. Uh, we can see here like just kind of across the board of his biggest issue coming out of week one was he looks amazing. He's efficient, but he's splitting snaps and touches with Breece Hall and Israel Abanikanda more than we would prefer. Now, the hope is even before I read these stats is that his talent, his efficiency would win out and by mid-season he kind of pushes Israel Abanikanda to the side because really the biggest issue for Breece Hall right now and this role still isn't Breece Hall's yet is that Israel Abanikanda is out there in the two-minute drill. Now, we absolutely love to see them getting killed by the Bills because it's infuriating as a Jets fan. We saw the same thing with Breece and Michael Carter in I want to say 2023, I think it was, where Michael Carter is the two-minute drill back. And then eventually they found out, oh well, Breece is actually much better here and he should be out there in the two-minute drill. And they cut Michael Carter. These coaches have this obsession of like, I have three running backs and they all need their roles and and this and that. It's just like when the Jets are rolling out, this is a whole other Jets fan rant, but when the Jets are rolling out, Josh Reynolds and Tyler Johnson and Allen Lazard, there is no reason for Israel Abanikanda to be in the backfield during two-minute drill hurry-up situations when Breece Hall is your second-best receiving weapon. So, in obvious passing down situations, him being on the bench is nonsense. For as much as I've loved Tanner Hudson and his play-calling in week one, that is insane. And I do think that that changes over time. But even if it doesn't, we still saw positive upticks in his usage. We see here, uh, Breece Hall played 30 offensive snaps to Breece Hall's nine in week two. That was 37 versus 20 in week one. That's a massive change. He also had 13 opportunities to Breece Hall's three and Israel Abanikanda's three. That's great. And then we have here with Ryan Heath. His usage in backfield shares were better than in week one. He goes from 70% to 83% of the backfield carries, 9.1% to 13.6% of the target. So, his role is growing and I think like you just you can't get punched in the mouth like that. Completely embarrassed. Your offense no-shows this game. Things are going to change. Breece Hall is going to be made a focal point. Uh, and I think that that is very exciting for me. I have him as a top 15 running back rest of season and if you can buy him as an RB2, I would.
Now, I will say as well, I think part of the stink on the Jets is oh well now Justin Fields goes down. Was he electric in week one? Sure. But is he still Justin Fields? Yeah. And then also like Tyrod Taylor has been quietly one of the better backups in the league that hasn't really been called upon in New York if that makes sense. This is from Harrison Glazer. This is a Jets beat reporter. Of course, as a Jets fan, I follow all these guys. Since being with the Jets, Tyrod Taylor has four touchdown drives in five opportunities for an 80% drive rate. That in a limited sample size is unofficially the best by any NFL quarterback with at least five career drives from 19. I mean, that it's a very, it's a very small sample, but he has not been like atrocious when he when he comes in. There's usually first downs and scoring and Tyrod Taylor looks pretty good. Uh, his stat line those games, four touchdowns, zero picks, uh, six carries. So he still also gives you that rushing element that is going to help Breece Hall uh get lighter boxes and well, not lighter boxes, but more of the box will be caring about what Tyrod Taylor does than, you know, if it was like Joe Flacco or something.
All right, now let's see what Breece Hall is going for out on the trade market right now. Wow, Brian Thomas for Harold Fannon and Breece Hall. Wow. I don't love selling low on Brian Thomas, but I actually think that if you needed running back and tight end help, I actually don't hate that at all. This is much more up my alley. Like if I can do Hubbard and uh small piece for Breece, I would. Uh, what else sticks out here? DeVonta for Breece. Travis Etienne. I would. Yeah, I would do that pretty easily actually now that I'm looking at it. Let's see. Does anything else stick out here? James Conner and ETN for Breece. I don't hate that, but I think you could you could maybe get better with these two. Like that's not a very clear upgrade. I don't think uh Pickens for Breece Hall, obviously. Breece. Trey Benson and Pickens for Breece Hall, obviously Breece. Uh, if I could turn Javonte, like even if you want to take out Jauan here, if I could turn Javonte into Breece, even if I have to add like Jauan Johnson and Javonte to Breece for Breece, I would. Uh, and then we can find one more. I think Pickens and Charbonnet is actually not crazy far off. If anybody out there is still a Charbonnet believer, uh, we'll find one more. Hampton and a piece for Breece Hall. I actually probably would if you wanted to sell low on Amariyon and Hampton here. That's actually not terrible. Uh, Josh Jacobs for Breece Hall and Mike Evans. I don't hate that either, especially in a 12-team start eight, which is what? Two wide receivers, two flexes. Yeah, I would do that as well. Um, but all right, let's let's move on to our next trade target here. Number three, TreVeyon Henderson.
As we talk about potentially selling low on a guy like Amariyon Hampton for a trade example, we have TreVeyon Henderson. And I have felt the wrath in my comments. People are upset. And here's what I'll say. When you draft rookies, we talk about it the entire offseason. We we draft them for what they do down the stretch. Now, of course, when we draft them inside the top three to four rounds, we need them to actually do more than they've done over the the first two weeks, but my overall sentiment here is not that they're all going to be okay. One or two of these guys are going to bust in a pretty horrific way and it's going to suck. But one or two of these guys, and I say these guys, I'm talking about uh your uh Jalen Wright, Hampton, Henderson, Judkins, Caleb Johnson, R.J. Harvey, I think probably one or two of those guys bust in a pretty horrific way. And I think one or two of those guys probably really turns things around because rookies are unpredictable and they have massive upside. Now, this isn't to say TreVeyon Henderson is on a lock to join these guys on this list. What I was doing here is this is gross cherry-picking, but what I'm trying to illustrate is how rookies can start very slow and still turn things around in a very massive way. You can go down the list here. Ezekiel Elliott in his first two weeks averaged 13.5 points per game as a rookie. Then week three on he was at 23 points per game. Clinton Portis, 2.3 to 22.3. Kamara, 8.1 to 12 point or to 21.3. Maurice Jones-Drew, 1.9 to 19.6. You can go down the list even if you want to sort of these are all guys who had 17-plus points per game from weeks three on. You could even go down to like 14-plus where a guy like Miles Sanders. So I would still leave the light on for these guys. It's only two weeks. I wouldn't freak out. And just to illustrate how fast things can change, this is Devin Singletary's rookie year. He goes from inactive to week two. He plays 10% of the snaps. He gets one carry for five yards. And then in that game against Denver, he gets 18 carries, 203 yards, four catches, 30 yards, two touchdowns just out of nowhere. And we saw it this past week with Cam Akers where in real time you see the backfield takeover. One of these weeks I have to believe it's going to happen for TreVeyon Henderson. A similar thing happened for Jahmyr Gibbs. It was very frustrating early on and then they chip away. They chip away and eventually they break out. I think that if you can buy TreVeyon Henderson for cheaper, I would. This is a Patriots team that's actually kind of balling out with Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator. And here's the tricky part. They're eighth in pass efficiency in terms of EPA per play. They're 29th in rush efficiency. They need efficiency. They need explosion in the run game. That's what TreVeyon Henderson can offer them. It sucks that his snap count actually kind of fell down a little bit this week because he had some missed block assignments. He had some holding calls. Not great, but also he's going to have his name called more and more as the season goes on. It's a small setback that I think eventually he can snap out of and be a huge difference-maker for fantasy the same way that I thought in August. So, if you can buy for a depressed price, uh, I absolutely would.
Now, if we look over at the trade database, what is TreVeyon Henderson going for on the market? I'm hoping you can get them for cheap. Man, I don't know why I have to keep doing this. I have to keep refreshing on the database here. Uh, of course, league size 10 to 14, half and full PPR. What's Henderson going for? Let's see. James Conner for Henderson. Yes, easily. Uh, I actually have Amariyon Hampton and Henderson back-to-back. If you can do Hampton for Henderson plus, I would. Uh, if and I've gotten this question too, like who are you most concerned about? I'd say in terms of my panic meter, it's probably Hampton, Harvey, Jalen Wright, Henderson, and then I think uh Judkins didn't draft high enough to really care and neither did Caleb Johnson, but that's probably where I'm at with Hampton being the one I'm most concerned about just because he hasn't looked good when he's on the field. Uh, what else? We have Hubbard uh for Henderson and Conner. Not crazy about that. Keon Coleman and Cam Akers for Henderson. Man, that's close. I probably would, but this is actually like I love Akers as well. Like I'm not really crazy about selling on Akers. So actually I'm going to take that back. Don't don't make that trade. Uh, would I do Warren for Henderson? I would. Dobbins for Henderson, I would. Uh, Javonte for Henderson, I would. Keon Coleman for Henderson? Yes. Uh, Wadd and a piece for Henderson? Yes. Again, if if I could get into the Amariyon Hampton for Henderson in a piece business, I would love that. Uh, obviously Hollywood for Henderson, Javonte for Henderson. Yes. We'll try and find one more. Keenan Allen for Henderson. Like, can you do Keenan Allen in a small piece for Henderson? Uh, I would do that as well. This Chase Brown for Drake London Henderson. I don't know that that's on the table, but I would be doing that as well. I also think Pickens is probably the perfect breaking point for me of like wide receiver two, wide receiver three. If I didn't need that depth and if I and I needed running back upside, uh, I would love a move like that as well.
Then we can talk about Tony Pollard as just kind of another buy-low here where he's been bad through two weeks, but he's been playing against the Broncos. He played against the uh Rams this past week, which is two really, really strong defenses. He hasn't given you anything really in terms of his production here. I'm pulling up on Sleeper. He hasn't even hit 10-plus PPR points yet. It's a bad offense, but I think Will Levis has kind of shown some flashes. I think they're going to get some better matchups here. They play the Colts this week, the sixth worst rush uh efficiency defense by EPA per play, which is a massive, massive boost from the Rams and the Broncos the last two weeks. And he's still being used as a bell cow. The issue is that Tyjae Spears is going to come back eventually, but 89.1% of the snaps is really, really solid. And if you maybe just lost Aaron Jones, you're just looking for running back points, I think Tony Pollard is actually a decent buy-low, uh, that I would just have, you know, there's like a billion of these guys in this tier of like J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, I put Pollard in there, I'd put DeAndre Swift in there, I put Jaylen Warren in there. Uh, I don't think I'm really missing any names, but you get what I'm saying. Like Jordan Mason's now in there. Uh, and if you just want to buy somebody in that tier for cheap, I think that Tony Pollard makes a lot of sense.
Now, in terms of what he's going for on the market, there's a part that thinks that he has like a little bit of name value, but I am very curious to see what people are paying for Pollard at this point in time. Uh, Keenan Allen for Tony Pollard, easily. Yes. Uh, Bill. Bill. Damn. Would I trade Bill for Pollard? No deal. No deal. Uh, if I was in a if I was in a pickle here, if you're 0 and 2 and you have Rashi Rice running on the bench and you want to cash in on Rashi Rice for like Tony Pollard in a small piece, I think that that's justifiable. Uh, Ridley for Pollard all day. If I needed running back help, Jameson Williams for Pollard, I think is fine. Again, Keenan Allen for Pollard. Yes. Quentin, you're not going to get Quentin Johnson, but Quentin Johnson and like a depth running back for Pollard. Yes. Uh, and then we'll find one more. Pacheco and a piece for Pollard. Yes. Jauan Jennings or Matthew Golden for Pollard? I would do either uh pretty easily. And then we can look at one more. Tyreek for Pollard and Pittman. Wow. In a start nine, I think I actually would in a start nine where this guy has two wide receivers, two flexes, and a super flex. I think I would do something uh among those lines.
Now, moving on to our fifth trade target in this video. This one, and I will say we're going to keep it brief brief on uh Chris Olave. I will say now that I'm sort of reading through all these, they honestly are all buy-lows. Uh, I got yelled at last week 'cause they weren't all buy-lows. This is actually six genuine buy-lows. Uh, but Chris Olave is like the most he's the poster boy this week. Everybody's talking about him as a buy-low. Uh, you're not going to get one over on anybody when it comes to Chris Olave, but if you can, uh he's the most obvious low in the NFL right now. 20.3 expected points per game. So based on his targets, his A-dot, his red zone usage, he should be at 20.3 points per game. Of course, it doesn't take into account that Spencer Rattler's his quarterback, but also he should be more in like the 15 points per game, not 11.9. He's had 35% or better target share in both games so far. He's been absolutely fed. And I think it's only a matter of time until he gets a true spike game here. 13 targets in week one, 10 targets in week two. That's as good as you could ask for from a wide receiver in your what like wide receiver three flex spot at this point in time. Kellen Moore is also running a fun offense that's top 10 in neutral pace through the first two weeks. You're going to get a lot of play volume. You're getting a lot of targets from Olave. So, I think it's a good opportunity to kick the tires and see what you can get. But again, like everybody in their brother is saying, "Hey, go trade for Chris Olave." Everyone just sorting on their expected points uh and just sort of seeing okay, well uh Olave should be scoring a lot more points than he is. Let's see. Is anybody like truly actually buying low on Chris Olave or is this just sort of groupthink here? McLaren for a Lav and a piece. I actually would. I'm not crazy about McLaren. Uh, I would prefer Olave over Puka Nacua straight up, but it's so close that I don't think it matters. Uh, would I do Chubb for Olave? Easily. Would I do Harold Fannon for Olave? Yes. Kairen for R.J. Harvey and Olave. Wow, that's actually pretty close. That's actually pretty close. I get yelled at for not for like doing too many lopsided trades. This is one where the they have Kairen winning by a lot. I'd maybe see if I could get more for Kairen, but if that's like the best offer on the table, I think I would I think I would be into that. Uh, Concade for Olave, easily. Garrett Wilson for Courtland Sutton and Olave. Yes, I I would have Sutton in the same tier as Wilson and then you get an extra Olave piece on top. Uh, what else? Pitts for Olave. Yeah, like if you have like an extra tight end that you can turn into an Olave, why not go do it? Uh, and then we'll find one more here. That makes sense to me. I would do Calvin Ridley for Olave. If I wasn't using Jauan Johnson, I would do him for a good enough piece.
And then our last trade target, just another one from last week. Uh, hold the faith on Drake London. I'm still buying. It was a down week due to injury. He came he came into the week on the injury report with the shoulder. I think that he clearly wasn't right. We saw here from JJ Zachariason. Uh, he saw four targets in a 19% target share. That was his lowest target total in four games prior with Michael Penix never going below eight targets. So, I think it's very clear that he was just using a decoy role in this game. He's off the injury report as you can see on the bottom. And on a per-route basis, he is wide receiver six in expected fantasy points per route run. So on a per-route basis, he's still commanding volume. He's doing all right. His expected points per game right now is like 16.3 instead. He's at like about 10. That should reverse. Michael Penix has looked good in his two starts this season. So I'm buying low on Drake London as a backend wide receiver two. What he's going for on the trade market here. Let's see. I imagine I imagine people are actually pretty spooked on London, dude. It's crazy. I think it's just every year, but people love to freak out. Like, it's only been two weeks. Like, people think the sky is falling. Everything that's happened so far, like this player, like Drake London was a massive bust. Lad McConkey, massive bust. A.J. Brown, massive bust. And it's like, I don't know, maybe one of those guys will be a massive bust. But let's let's wait, you know, 10-plus games and kind of see how how this thing shakes out. Uh, if I could do Tyreek Hill and a piece for Drake London, I would. Uh, I would do Kairen for Drake London straight up. Wow, I love Romeo Doubs. Don't I hate when you guys make me do this, but I would add a piece to Doubs to get to Drake London if I could. Uh, Nico Collins or Drake London? That one's too close to even make that deal to be honest. I love Miyan Williams, but if he can get turned into London, you have to press accept on that trade. Uh, Hampton for R.J. Harvey and London. Yes, Hampton for London trade-up. I would do uh I don't know. I don't know that that's even on the table though. I think it would have to be Hampton and a wide receiver for London, which I would do. Uh, Scott McCarron for London, easily. Uh, Miyan Williams, James Conner for London. Yes. God, I I hate saying yes to these Miyan Williams trades. I refuse to put Miyan Williams on any of my sell-high videos 'cause I'm just riding that ship till the wheels fall off. Uh, but man, uh he's definitely hot in these streets right now. Uh, Kairen for Drake London, easily. Uh, Swift and Hubbard for Drake London. Uh, yes, please.
Now, that is going to conclude our week three trade target video. I think tomorrow morning you should expect a sell video. Some of them are going to be sell-highs, some of them not. But just to give you guys some ideas, just get the ideas flowing here. I'm not saying that you can just go to your local league and acquire Olave for cheap. But those are six targets where I talk you through a bunch of ideas of how to go about acquiring them. I think that they are all probably a little bit mispriced right now across the industry in rest-of-season rankings. And again, if you want to look at my rest-of-season rankings for your own trades, you can find those over on the Patreon. patreon.com/rononstewart. My rest-of-season rankings are there. Tomorrow, my weekly rankings will be there. And then every Tuesday, my waiver wire article goes live to tell you exactly how much FAAB I'm bidding on every player on waivers. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys in the next one. This [Music] stones like froze around my body like I'm froze.