Transcription
Hello guys, my name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto. I wanted to drop a video to celebrate the fact that we have been right. Those of us who have been waiting for the breakout move for the past six or seven months have been vindicated. It has occurred. And I'm going to show you the global M2 chart. I'm going to show you the inverse head and shoulders chart and how the breakout was confirmed. And we're going to just show you all sorts of stuff related to this breakout that shows this is no fluke. This is as expected. This is what we've been expecting on this channel.
Despite a few of you out there thinking that the bull run was over, I even had one guy in the comments was like, "I'm going to follow Colin everywhere he goes and tell him how wrong he was. The bull run is over." You know, and he was getting agreement with a couple of other guys that the bull run was over and they were going to just make sure that no, screw you guys. Bull run is on. $117, $118,000 new all-time highs, making new all-time highs every day as we thought it would happen. You guys were wrong. Those of you who doubted, and we've been talking about this and backing this up with the global M2 money supply. Let's start with that.
The global M2 money supply is an aggregate of the global liquidity flowing its way down into not only Bitcoin but also the stock market, etc. It goes down into risk assets, but it takes about 84 days or 90 days to do so. Um, right now I think that really the best average is somewhere in this range here, 84 or 90 days. It doesn't really matter. It's the big picture that matters, but I wanted to draw you the up-to-date chart right now. This is $118,000 where Bitcoin is roughly today. And you can see that it's starting to catch up with the global M2 line. We had a lot of people here panicking, fudding, worrying, not being patient. As I've said, patience is the number one skill of an investor. It's very, very difficult to acquire. And all you guys were doubting way too quickly, way too quickly that this correlation was broken when in fact it is not broken. We have the global M2 money supply having not stopped climbing for about 6 months straight here. We're only about halfway through this move. And what do we have recently? We have this big leg up going vertical with Bitcoin timed exactly with the breakout of the inverse head and shoulders. This is another chart I've been covering for about a month now. And it did not confirm until we broke out above about $113,000, which was the neckline, this slightly sloped neckline with a target of $150,000 roughly. I think it's technically like $148,000, but $150,000 sounds better, don't you think? So, that's the target, guys. It doesn't mean it has to be met. It doesn't mean it can't be surpassed. Um, I've seen targets that fell short. I've seen targets that got blown away, but this is sort of like a rough idea of where we could expect the price reasonably to go statistically, $148, $150,000. Okay, so we are just at the very beginning, baby steps of that breakout. But it is confirmed. This move is confirmed. It is a definitive breakout. We have now two daily candles above this neckline. This move is happening. Okay.
Now, how high it goes. I'm not saying that this is the top of the cycle. It could go higher. I don't know. It could be the top of the cycle. We don't know yet. We're going to look at a lot of metrics on this channel and follow this as we go because now we're starting to get into a bit of the overheated territory. We're not so overheated that I'm going to start selling yet, but we need to start paying a watchful eye to all sorts of different metrics to decide when we want to start taking profits if that's something that you want to do. That is something that I want to do. I don't want to ride this whole bull run down and thought I didn't take anything to show for it. And then I want to be able to rebuy back in lower and buy more Bitcoin. That's my personal strategy. Some of you might just feel more comfortable doing a buy and hold strategy and just hold. And even though there's an 80% dip, just hold. I've done that before and that was extremely painful. But honestly, anything you try to do trading is is met with challenges. It's never as easy as it sounds. It's never as easy as you might think it is. I've learned that lesson the hard way. There's no easy path to wealth in crypto. Even holding is difficult. Okay.
So, I'm not saying that you should sell. I'm just saying that I'm looking to sell up to 50% of my portfolio when we do reach whatever I think the all-time highs are, the final pinnacle top, the final peak of the cycle. But it's looking very good because the magnitude of this breakout of this inverse head and shoulders, you know, again, this is what is this? Let's count right here. This is 1, 2, 3, 4, five, six, really about seven months. Just shy of 7 months of what was actually a consolidation. An inverse head and shoulders is a consolidation pattern because it broke up. If it had not broken up, if it had broken down below this right shoulder, that would have invalidated the pattern and that would have been the top, pretty sure. But that didn't happen. Okay, we confirmed a breakout. That means that this was just a consolidation. And in an uptrend, statistically speaking, topping patterns, which is what a head and shoulders can be, tend to fail. They actually tend to fail more often than not in a bull run. You only get that one final top indicator. That's actually the top. Every other pattern up to that point fails as a top indicator and is a continuation pattern. I know it's kind of like defies the logic. You think, oh, head and shoulders equals top pattern. Well, it does, but it only does it at the actual top. Every other time, it invalidates. That's why it's very important to look at these key levels like the neckline. If it had not broken above this neckline, then yes, this very well could have been a top pattern. But it did break above the neckline. The moment it broke above this neckline and confirmed, you know, a couple daily candles, that basically tells you that this target has been confirmed and this pattern was confirmed as not a top pattern, but as a continuation pattern. Okay, so that's what I'm very excited about. We've been correct about this the whole time.
Back to this global M2 versus BTC charts. I did a 90-day offset just to show you the difference so I can alternate back and forth. This is the only difference between the two offsets. I personally think that the 90 looks a little better, but we're not here to nitpick about the offset. We're just here to look at the really, really broad picture. And what is this picture telling us? It's telling us that we have what is this? Uh, one, two, three, three more at least two to three more months at least because this hasn't stopped necessarily, right? Of continued global M2 liquidity injections finding its way into Bitcoin and risk assets, including alts, including the stock market. Like, get ready. But the real pivotal move was this breakout because this tells us that the bull run's not over. All you naysayers, the bull run is not over. I see cryptocappo out there, that big account talking about how this is a fake out, how this is we're going down from here. I'm like, dude, are you insane? The magnitude of this breakout, we should expect multiple months, green candles for months minimum. You could see four to five green monthly candles, honestly, from this point forward due to the magnitude of this breakout. And I would say that if you're a doubter, set a stop-loss. That's what I told him. I'm like, hey, just set a stop loss if you're worried. Like honestly, don't miss this move because you're worried it's it's a fake out. If you think it's a fake out, you're betting against the TA. And if you really think it's a fake out, then put a little stop loss right below the neckline here. That's what any good trader would do. And then if you're right and it is a fake out and we break down below the neckline here, well then you can be saved and you don't have to ride it all the way down like you think is going to happen. But if you don't go long here, when everything is telling you to go long, and I mean like global M2 is telling you to go long, this TA pattern is telling you to go long, you're a fool. I mean, I'm going to say it, you're a fool for missing this pattern. This is the most clean textbook breakout pattern I've ever seen. This is as clean as it gets. So, if you are a bear right now, you are on the wrong side of statistics. You are making a mistake, I would bet. And you know, prove me wrong and put a stop loss here and tell me it gets triggered. And it's okay to do that. Like that's the smart thing to do. Obviously, like if it does break down below this, especially below this like right shoulder, my god, if it breaks down below this, like cycle over, okay, that's the like invalidation of the theory. Um, even below the neckline is very, very red flag. Um, but you could get a dip briefly, but right now things are looking bullish. Breakout is confirmed. Target is $150,000.
And I want to go over a few other things. Like this is the chart with no lines drawn on it whatsoever. And what do you see here? I mean, you see the most beautiful uptrend. The trend tends to continue. We do not have a top pattern yet. We don't have something like this right now. We could have. We could have. This could have been, right? And if you zoom in, that would be like this area right here. That could have, but it broke out. It broke up. Therefore, this entire thing is invalidated as a top pattern. It is not this. We have definitive proof of that right now because of these two candles. So, what does that tell us? That tells us that these monthly candles are probably going to go for a while because this is a big consolidation. And the neckline right here, if you were to draw a horizontal neckline, was about $110,000. You see this line right here? That's what we broke out of. See how the green candle's above that? Bullish. No doubt about it. No question about it. Nothing you can say about that other than if you're on the sidelines, you're the guy right now FOMOing, chasing in, throwing your money after the fact when a lot of us have already been in the market feeling content to wait until that confirmation. And so your cost average is going to be higher now that you're FOMOing in.
And the proof that there's people FOMOing in, this takes us to the Bitcoin ETF flowchart. This is all the Bitcoin spot ETFs that are on the market right now. You got BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, etc. And what do we have here on July 10th, which was yesterday, the highest inflows. This is $1.1, basically $1.2 billion with a B of inflows in one single day. And that corresponds with this breakout move right here. So, it all makes sense. It all goes together. There is a lot of money flowing in and chasing after this breakout because the smart money realizes, holy sh this is happening. Like this money is the smart money. This money realizes that it's happening. It's not as smart as the money that bought in earlier, but it's smarter than the money that's betting on its bare market or that's waiting for even more confirmation and is going to buy in later and FOMO in later. That's the dumb money. Dumb money is coming up. We're not even at the dumb money yet. This is still, I'd say, smart money.
And Bitcoin is now climbing the ranks of the top assets by market cap. Um, just an hour ago it was actually ranked number five. It swapped places with Amazon. You can see their market caps are very close. Here we have Bitcoin with $2.34 trillion market cap and Amazon with $2.4 trillion. So a difference of 0.06. And just an hour ago, these positions were reversed for the first time. Bitcoin has now dominated and taken over the number five spot. And I bet you within less than 3 days, probably even by the end of today, but within 3 days, Bitcoin is going to be back in the number five spot here as far as all assets by market cap, including precious metals, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, public companies, etc. That's pretty impressive.
One other thing I want you to note is in relation to gold, Bitcoin has one-tenth of the market cap that gold has. We have $22.6 trillion for the market cap of gold. And Bitcoin only has $2.3 trillion. I would argue and I think many of you who understand Bitcoin and the technology of blockchain, who truly get it from a technological point of view and what it does for mankind would agree that Bitcoin is worth more than gold. Yeah, sure you can make a nice ring out of gold, but you can do so much more with Bitcoin. Cross-border payments, uncensorable payments without an intermediary, without having to ask permission. Global, this is the money of the internet. This is the global economy of the future is Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. So I think that gold is like archaic. It's like looking at a horse and buggy. Gold is the horse and buggy. Bitcoin is the Tesla right now. That's the analogy. So Bitcoin, even though it's in a bull market, it's making new all-time highs, is in my opinion still incorrectly valued. It's incorrectly valued to the downside. There's an opportunity here of more than a 10x. I think that if gold is $22 trillion, Bitcoin should probably be a $100 trillion. Honestly, I'm not BSing you. I really do feel that that would be a more honest valuation. And that will happen. That's why Bitcoin is climbing the asset rank here slowly but surely. It didn't used to be number six. Didn't used to be number five. Used to be number 10. It used to be number 100. It used to not even be on this chart. But it's climbing because the market is slowly, you know, over 15 years realizing the proper valuation of Bitcoin, which is in my opinion way more than two trillion. This is still early in the grand scheme of decades of thinking.
Here's a chart that shows the Bitcoin versus gold correlation because some people think that the global M2 correlation is not really that accurate or it's a fluke or it's whatever. They explain it away. Well, this is a rolling 30-day average of the gold price in uh orange, ironically, and then the Bitcoin price in white. And so that's why this the last 30 days aren't present for gold because it's a moving average or it's a rolling 30-day average. And you can see how Bitcoin just ticked up here on the right. But they are very loosely correlated. You can see how gold moves up, Bitcoin moves up. And that's the same for Global M2. Basically, liquidity fuels economies. And global M2, I'll show it to you one more time here, has been going up for 6 months, has not stopped and continues to go from this point forward for months and months and months. And I should just mention, in case you're unfamiliar with the global M2 money supply chart, how could we possibly have this going into the future? We don't. We slid the chart forward. We slid the global M2 money supply chart line forward by 90 days in this case, or 80 uh 84 days in this case to approximate the moves that Bitcoin actually makes. And it's a very uncanny. It's a 80% correlation. I did this little formula here to calculate this average of correlation. And it is 80% correlated. So 20% of the time you're going to get decorrelations and decouples. And the other 80% of the time it's going to be smack dab on this line. So we're looking at $150,000 target. Bitcoin's climbing the asset rank. Gold is in a bull market. Bitcoin's in a bull market. Bitcoin tends to follow gold. Bitcoin and gold tend to follow the global M2. It doesn't get more bullish than this.
Here's a chart that Peter Schiff is going to hate to see. And this is the BTC verse gold chart price and ratio. So, you can see how over time over a span of 15 years, it's very clear to see that Bitcoin has gained on gold.
Lastly, if I get rich in crypto, I'm not telling anybody, but there will be signs. That's all I have for you today, guys. Hope you're doing well. Enjoy this next couple of months. We'll keep watching it. We'll keep a close eye on this. I'll be doing my best to spot when I think the top is. It's not an easy game, but we're going to do our best. Hope you're doing awesome. Talk to you again soon.