Transcription
Bitcoin shows interesting short-term signs, but we also have a correlation with indices that is quite interesting, or at least a divergence, which we will discuss today. We will take a brief look at Ethereum, and also at ETFs. There is indeed very interesting data for this weekend. Just before we begin, I remind you that our algo service is still available. The SPT algorithms made 19R in the 2nd quarter and 14R in the 3rd quarter. I remind you that 1R simply means, for example, if you risked 10 dollars on a trade and you gained 30 dollars, you gained 3R. So this means that these algos generated 4 times 14 times more gains than the initial risk that was triggered. To get these algos, it's simple, it's free, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. I also remind you that past performance does not reflect future performance. All performances are in the Discord. To access it, you just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link. It's the first link that is right here. Also, Bitgate is currently offering you 10% cashback on your deposit. What does that mean? It means that, for example, if you make a deposit of 1000 dollars, you get 100 dollars in deposit bonus. You just have to click on the link I showed you, and click on "join" here. This will allow you to get your bonus, and also later, you will just have to click on this second link to access the algos, the mentorship, the VIP, Alcoin, and Crypto. All this for free. This is a video in which I explain absolutely everything to you. You have access to the mentorship, but also to the VIP Alcoin. This is where I will share the best opportunities on the market from my point of view.
So, regarding BTC, yesterday we had a big de-correlation with the indices, or rather a big divergence. We are quite correlated with the movement of the indices, but in divergence. What does that mean? It means that yesterday the indices were falling quite sharply, and Bitcoin actually did not make a new low. So we talked about this, which is why we were talking about a possible rebound, since this divergence had already shown itself a few hours earlier. And so here we can see that the American indices came to test a level that is quite interesting. the sell stops of the previous upward leg, also here we have what is called an order block, so we came to take the stops of the order block and at the end of the session we reacted very well. So here, by the way, it was a very good zone. I will talk about it in the macro review on Monday. And so here we can see that on this big drop in the indices, Bitcoin did not make a new low. So on the one hand, it's good because it confirms that BTC is regaining a little strength, and quite naturally, we have this rebound that occurs a few hours later. But on the other hand, this leaves us with relative equal lows. So that means that theoretically this zone might be revisited later, but we will come back to that. However, what is positive is that currently we have recovered the previous day's low. So Friday came to recover Thursday's low. So here, you see, we are leaving a lot of stops, right. I personally think that the market will revisit this zone at some point, but I think we are more in the perspective of a rebound. As long as this short-term signal is maintained, I will show it to you right away. We have recovered Thursday's low, so here. And by having recovered Thursday's low, for those who saw the mentorship, you must see it directly, there is what is called a breaker block. And so this breaker block is starting to show a short-term inversion signal. This means that here, as long as the market maintains this breaker and makes it a value area, which is at the initiative, it is not necessarily at the initiative but within the breaker. So it is perfectly this price zone, there is the possibility to put pressure on BTC's highs. So here, we see that all the stops are accumulating. So theoretically, the idea is that as long as this breaker zone is maintained, so here around 111,500 dollars, there is really the possibility to reach 105,000 dollars, or rather 101,000 dollars, I meant, sorry, there is the possibility to reach 105,000 dollars. Why? Because here, we would be in the perspective of reaching our fair value gap zones. You see, we leave Friday's high, Thursday's high, Wednesday's high behind us. And so this is what creates a small fair value gap here on the daily chart, which I will put in red like this. And we also have another fair value gap, but I will probably come back to that later. So this is what gives the price a chance, in my opinion, to come and take the stops of these daily highs. And so the idea will be to see if we can resolve these fair value gaps positively or not, because in theory, a fair value gap, what often happens is that it gets filled, and then unfortunately, if the price does not reverse, we continue to fall to deliver the next points, which here would be the monthly low of June and therefore the monthly fair value gap. So the fact of seeing the price consolidate as it approaches such an important stop zone invites us to think that we will come back to it later, but that theoretically what we see in the short term is more of a possible rebound.
Also, what we can note, especially on the ETF side, is that it is very interesting. Yesterday we had massive outflows, we are at -558 million dollars. By the way, we had a pump yesterday on the Alts. I think I will make a video about that tomorrow or Monday. Be extremely careful with this kind of pump. In my opinion, it smells of exit liquidity, but I will make a video about it tomorrow or Monday. But again, here, the fact that we have -558 million in outflows on the ETFs. So this shows that during the fall of the indices, there were many institutional or retail investors, but anyway, those who trade the spot ETF who sold their spot Bitcoin, and despite that, we did not have a further drop. This means that here, there are big players who are absorbing, who find it interesting to buy these price zones. Because if there were no buyers, given the outflows we experienced, we would have broken the 99 support and perhaps gone to 98, 97, and so on. So this shows that precisely there are buyers who are interested in positioning themselves here. Now, are these market-making algorithms that are there to absorb because they need to distribute on the Alts? It's not because when we see altcoins start to make 100% like that suddenly and the whole market does it at the same time, don't fool yourself. There is no stablecoin impression. There is a market that is very thinly liquid. It is probably market-making algorithms that have pushed prices to very specific zones, and I will talk about it because the specific zones are visible on all charts. But I will make another video about that. And so, coming back to BTC, as long as the breaker is maintained in the short term, we are more in the perspective of saying "Okay, well, we are going to hunt for sellers, particularly why not above 105,000 dollars." So the stop zones that we are leaving behind us. but simply to fill the fair value gaps that we have left behind us. If this breaker fails, that's why this is what we will need to observe this weekend. If we ever return to the breaker and lose this fair value gap zone, the market's interest will be to recover these two lows and probably to take the 98,114 dollars since it is the monthly low that has not yet been triggered, and we see that we are consolidating just above it. So all those who are buying are putting their stops here. Probably this is a zone that the market will want to trigger later, but before that it consolidates. It will probably take the stops and then if this pump does not hold, then we will have the delivery of the price towards the objectives: consolidation, manipulation, expansion, because that remains the major objective if we look at every Bitcoin correction, what Bitcoin does, and it's not because it did it in the past that it will do it again, but it always comes back to trigger the monthly fair value gaps. For example, on the correction here in March 2023, we entered our monthly fair value gap, then we went up again. The same thing, we corrected here, we entered the monthly fair value gap, we continued to explode. Same here, we corrected, we returned to our monthly fair value gap, we exploded. Same, we entered our monthly fair value gap, we exploded. And here, the monthly fair value gap is right here. And we see that we stopped just before. Which can lead us to think that eventually we will end up coming back to it. Well, there are not enough occurrences, we cannot say that it is a sufficiently reliable model, but fair value zones are often zones that are reworked since they cover a lot of liquidation stops and so on. Especially for the weekly close.
Now, there are two ways to look at the weekly close. I said that if we returned to 107,000 dollars for the weekly close, it would be magnificent. Now, will the market manage to do that for us this weekend? Perhaps. Now, if we look at the CME, it is already closed, and unfortunately, we see that the close is confirmed, meaning that the 107,000 level, we are largely below it. On the CME, it was 109,000, by the way, but we clearly see that our breaker block here is taking shape. So this is a bit, well, if we look at regulated markets, well, the breaker for them is valid. For us, we will have to wait until Sunday evening, so Monday night, to see if we confirm the breaker or not. Confirming the breaker would start to confirm the bearish dynamic of BTC with, consequently, the target objective at 98,000 and perhaps these fair value gap zones, but not now, in the coming weeks. That is to say, the price could so much come back to work the bearish breaker before going back down. We must realize that there is absorption here. We see it clearly, the fact that the price is no longer falling here while the indices are falling and there are -550 million on the ETFs, this proves that there is absorption here and that there is probably the will to squeeze a little higher potentially. This idea holds as long as the breaker is maintained.
And concerning Ethereum, regarding Ethereum, same thing, Ethereum held up very well yesterday, so like BTC in itself, even a little better than Bitcoin if we look closely. On the index side, same thing, the indices fell, Ethereum held up rather well, we have exactly the same thing, the breaker block validating a small short-term inversion. And so here, on Ethereum, we came to test the fair value gap, meaning that it came to hunt for stops. Hop, right here, you see, we came to do the little stop hunt within the fair value gap. And so, we are in a rebound perspective. Now, Ethereum, it had already purged its target. Its target was this low at 3353 dollars. So I remind you that this is a very good zone to position oneself. We have talked about it many times, these FVG zones, the low around the first stop. I remind you that it is essential for Ethereum to maintain the first stop, because if it is not maintained, we will find ourselves with an Ethereum that can return to the reload zone. And if we return to the reload zone, then it's not the same story. So these will be professional entries for medium to long-term investors. But that doesn't mean we will go there. As long as 382 is maintained, there is no problem in itself. So it is really a zone that we defend. We can see that we came to hunt Thursday's low. So Friday's candle came to hunt Thursday's low, which is rather interesting, and so we are dealing with the retracements of the fair value gap zones. Now, again, it is too early to say whether we have bottomed or not. The structure is not bad. The power balance we saw on Ethereum is not bad either. This is rather positive. I can note the breaker block right here. And so, again, my idea is that as long as this impulse is maintained, the one that triggers the breaker, I will give you the target zone. I will even talk about this FVG which, for its part, is at the initiative of the breaker. I think we can expect to put a little pressure to the north and then to re-work our fair value gaps, because in addition to that, the indices have reached a very good level, and also the close of the indices is not bad, because in fact, we came to hunt the weekly low but we ended up closing within the fair value gap. Which means that theoretically next week, we can really try to go north again and put pressure to the north. So this could be positive for Bitcoin and Ethereum. But we will have to see how next week unfolds for the indices. But in any case, it's rather okay. There is no major inversion signal on the indices yet, but what happened is rather okay. And so, well, for us, it would be to re-work our daily fair value gaps. After all, again, it will still be about seeing the price reaction, because if we are still bearish, I tell you honestly, we will rather see something like this. If we are bullish, we really need to start marking a bottom here. That is to say, really see the price consolidate. We have purged the stops, we are absorbing well, and we are moving up calmly, rather than making a simple rebound and a bearish continuation. So it might take a little more time. It's not right away that we can confirm a bottom. The zone is ideal for it. Now, we will have to see if the market confirms it or not, and that might require a little more consolidation.
I will stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, feel free to leave a thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, there is a lot of free content for you. We will meet again tomorrow, I think, and I think that during next week, we will do a brief update on the alts to see a little bit what happened. We will let the weekend run because it is not very liquid. I think we could still have quite a bit of volatility. So we will meet again tomorrow, and perhaps on Monday a video on the Alts. See you tomorrow.