Transcription
So, where does Trump go from here? And will there be political implications for Trump as and as his base grows increasingly uncomfortable with his actions in the Middle East? Here to talk about all of this is John Bolton. He was Donald Trump's national security adviser during his first administration, who was also once the American ambassador to the United Nations. Hi, Ambassador Bolton. Welcome back to Power Play.
>> Glad to be back. Thanks for having me.
So today, President Donald Trump called NATO countries quote cowards for not helping to secure the straight of Hormuz, adding quote we will remember. How dangerous do you think this very public disagreement between allies and the US is becoming?
>> Well, I think it's always dangerous with Trump because uh he's never understood how NATO works. He's never really supported it. Uh even when people think he's gotten used to the idea, uh it's not true. It's just momentary at best. I mean, I well remember in 2018 at the NATO Brussels summit, he came right up to the line that far back in withdrawing from NATO. I mean, I think it's unpreential to say the least to behave this way. Uh, but that that's Donald Trump and it it remains a problem and I think will be throughout his tenure.
>> When you consider how he's framing this call for help, you know, he has said that the fight is militarily won with very little danger from for them. Is that how you think see things playing out right now in the Middle East?
>> Well, I don't I don't think it's militarily one. Certainly not with the straight of Hormuz closed. And I think uh uh the the only way we can be sure about eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat, eliminating uh Iran's terrorist activities and the terrorist proxies that it sponsors and eliminating now as we can see visibly uh the threat of uh endangering the entire world economy by closing the straight of Hormuz. The only way to have any confidence those problems can be remedied is to change the regime. Now, at the beginning, that's what Trump said his objectives were. He and his advisers have said a lot of different things since then. My my view is that only regime change here can answer these questions. I hope that's what he's doing. I think that's what Israel hopes to accomplish, but with Trump, you never know.
>> In his first term, you had warned him about different scenarios around regime change in Iran, including the closing of the Straight of Hormuz. If he was warned about this, how do you explain the path that he's taken presently?
>> Uh, I can't explain it. I don't understand it. I I I believed in regime change in his first term and and many people in the administration different and they were happy to tell him about all the problems associated with it. Uh, and in the first term, he said expressly regime change was not his policy. He wanted to eliminate the nuclear program, but that was it. And so I think I was as surprised as anybody when suddenly I found him espousing regime change back in January when the Iranian people were out in the streets all over the country uh demonstrating against the regime. He he posted on social media, keep protesting, take control of your institutions, help is on its way. Uh now many in Iran feel betrayed by that, but take control of your institutions sounds like regime change to me. Do you think that he has an understanding of where this could end? And I ask that because the Associated Press and Reuters both reporting today that additional warships and about 200 Marines are heading to the Middle East. Now, I I I guess I'm asking what do you read from that move today?
>> Well, given the other deployment of Marines that he had ordered earlier, uh you can only conclude that the Pentagon is trying to prepare for some contingency that requires uh boots on the ground, which he said he wasn't going to do. There there are certain limited missions like uh securing the enriched uranium and centrifuges and other equipment and material related to the nuclear program. That's that's something I think we're going to need to do at some point if we really want to end that program. There's talk about seizing Car Island. I don't know whether that's feasible or not. There's talk about seizing the high ground on the Iranian side of the straight of Hormuz to push back the possibility of attacks on tankers going through the straight. Uh, nobody has said, but you know, if if this were a wellthoughtout, well planned operation, and those were legitimate contingencies, our military would have put these assets in place well before now.
>> Do you think he's making it up as he goes along?
>> I think he I think that's what he does. He makes things up as they go along. Our military is expert at planning, expert at logistics. I think they and the Israelis militarily have performed quite well. I think it's the political direction of the operation that's lacking that he didn't Trump didn't prepare the American public, Congress, the allies, the opposition uh and uh and and we're seeing the unfortunately the negative consequences of that lack of preparation.
>> Now, do you think that that's why we're seeing some of the most loyal people in his circle have voiced their opposition now? In his letter of resignation, Trump's former head of counterterrorism, Joe Kent, urged him to reverse course. Do you see a larger split developing within the Trump administration and his supporters over this?
>> Well, I think the the faction of MAGAT Trump supporters that are breaking are the isolationist. Uh and they go right up to JD Vance, sort of the head of the isolationist faction within within the MAGA movement. I don't think their numbers are that large. Uh, but they're a very vocal minority and uh I think they're in meltdown watching what Trump is doing in Iran. Uh, and part of Trump's problem is his base is fragmenting already for other reasons. U and the more it fragments for for whatever cause and and with whatever dimmonition and actual support uh it increases the perception that he's moving into the lame duck period in his presidency. If Republicans lose the house andor the senate in November uh that will further that. So it means he's moving into greater and greater difficulty on all his priorities.
>> I know you said they don't number uh many, but do you think it's because some of them carry so much heft? And I and I look at, you know, voices like Tucker Carlson uh who had called this absolutely disgusting and vile, Marjgery Taylor Green who called a war quote complete betrayal of campaign campaign promises specifically because the president when he was campaigning said no more foreign wars. So, do you see those voices, even though, as you had said, they don't number a lot, carrying a lot more heft and and forcing him more into that lame duck period as you described it?
>> Right. I think when when people say these are violations of Trump's campaign pledges, they're not wrong about that. And it undercuts his legitimacy across the board. Even people who say, "Well, circumstances may have dictated that we needed to go into Iran and and we support Trump," they still think in their mind that he betrayed campaign promises. And that that is unquestionably a political problem. It's very hard to recover from once people begin to lose trust in what you say.
Just in closing here, do you think that there's an off-ramp for him where he [snorts] can end this or move away from this path right now that he's on in a way that he can save face and and not go even deeper into conflict here?
>> Well, he may have wished he did it about a week ago before the closure of the straight of Hormuz became so clear. I don't see how even Donald Trump can declare victory with the straits still closed. But he said uh about 10 days ago when I asked, "Well, how would how will you know when it's time to withdraw," he said, "I'll feel it in my bones." So that makes it pretty hard to predict, but you can you can bet that the metric will be what he thinks best benefits him politically.
>> So I guess not so much of an excursion as he had originally described it would be.
>> Well, I think he said that because he was minimizing the chances of failure. So you could say, "Well, it wasn't a big thing one way or the other." This this is Trump who's always looking to lay off responsibility for failure on somebody else.
>> Yeah. Okay, we're going to leave it there. Ambassador Bolton, thank you so much for joining us today. We appreciate it.
Thanks for having