Transcription
The final edition of my projections is officially live. We have 12 more teams that I've learned from from doing projections for the first time in seven years covering fantasy football. I went through now all 32 teams, dug deep into tendencies, into history, into career averages, and really projected out exactly what I think will happen in the 2026 season.
These projections are now live on the site. You can get access to them. You can also get access to them through the reddraft rankings manifesto which is live on the site as well and of course flockfantasy.com promo code FSE to get that or conversely you can get it for free when you sign up on underdog using my promo code FSE as well.
So pivoting over to the first team that we're going to talk about. We're going to go through the Minnesota Vikings through to the Washington Commanders. If you guys are wondering alphabetically why I'm going in that that order. The other two videos covered, you know, Miami through uh Detroit and then it was uh Denver through the beginning of the alphabet, Arizona. So, those are all the teams. Today, we're going to break down Minnesota through Washington. 12 teams that we got to get through.
Aaron Jones was my biggest takeaway from the Minnesota Vikings. Now, Justin Jefferson, you might notice, at only 16 points per game. That is also kind of a takeaway from my projections of the Vikings as well. But the thing that I took away the most from Aaron Jones and the Vikings is that he's been the starter when fully healthy. Last year when fully healthy, he had 18 opportunities per game in his healthy performances. He he also almost had four targets per game in his healthy performances as well. And the thing that I think a lot of people are missing with Aaron Jones is that he hasn't fallen off. Like that's the thing that I keep coming back to. 4.2, 4.5, 4.6 yards per carry. those seasons all from age 29 to 31. So, I think a lot of people are quick to go, "Oh, Aaron Jones is old. He's going to be washed this year and Jordan Mason's going to take over." But here's the thing, Aaron Jones, whenever he's been on the field the last two years for the Vikings, has been the starting running back. So, as long as he's healthy, you could probably rely on him to be 18, 19, 20 opportunities per game. And for Jordan Mason to just work in sparingly on early downs, maybe a little bit on the goal line. So, that was my biggest takeaway from the Minnesota Vikings is seeing Aaron Jones pop with 11.16 PPR points per game. Again, nothing special there. You're not going to be smashing that pick out of the park, but if you're running a hero RB or a zero RB and he's available for you in the eighth, ninth round of a reddraft league, especially because you can trade him, sell him high early on in the season, I do think he's going to be a worthwhile swing to take.
And then the other takeaway, as you guys can see there, Justin Jefferson only a uh 16 point per game projection. The reason for that is going off of his career target share of 29.1%. I did decrease it marginally to 28.03% to account for the downplay that he had in 2025 and Jordan, Jawan Jennings, and TJ Hawinson being good competition. Now, there's just no way for me to make the math work on Kyler Murray having a Sam Darnold or a Kirk Cousins like passing projection. The only way you can get there is if you're going to just throw career averages and caution to the wind and project Kyler Murray to have by far his best passing performance of his career, which I think is reasonably possible because Kyler Murray has never had a coach like Kevin Oonnell. He hasn't been in an offense with this much talent. But the only way to get Justin Jefferson to an 18 plus point per game receiver is for him to either go full JSN, 35% of the team's targets, or for Kyler Murray to take that necessary step. And the Vikings are projected for eight and a half wins. I would lean towards the under on that. I don't think they're going to be, you know, one of the better teams in their division. I think Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit are all better teams than they are. And I'm projecting both Chicago and Detroit to be like top five teams in the NFC. So, I'm just a little bit worried about this Kyler Murray experience, and I'm not willing to go, "All right, Justin Jefferson's fixed now. He's going to have, you know, a career season like his 18, 19, 20 points per game years that we've seen from him in years past." I'm not saying that Justin Jefferson is going to be bad from like a real life perspective. I just don't think it's going to translate necessarily to his best fantasy season of all time.
So, let's move in to the New England Patriots. And they're an interesting team to cover just because there's so many moving parts. A lot of people are accounting for their terrible schedule last season as a reason to regress them, and I think that's definitely fair. However, it's not like the Patriots are the same team that they were last year. They have AJ Brown as their number one receiver. They have Romeo Dobs as their number two receiver. They have a offensive line that is still young and developing. Their defense made some additions as well. So, for me, I look at AJ Brown and this uh this Patriots offense as yes, they could regress from a team wins perspective and only win nine or 10 games, but I do actually think this is going to be a more productive offense even than it was last year for fantasy purposes. Now, I don't think Drake May is going to be second in MVP voting again, but I do think the Patriots can produce a lot of great fantasy assets, and I don't think people are talking enough about how hard AJ Brown could crush if this thing goes well in 2020. A disgruntled 27 28-year-old Stefon Diggs was traded from the Minnesota Vikings to a young but talented third-year Josh Allen. This strikes me as a very similar situation. Very similar temperament of the receiver. AJ Brown still in the prime of his career. Just turned, I think, 29 years old the other day. And AJ Brown is now back with Mike Vrabel, the guy that drafted him on his childhood favorite NFL team after posting a wide receiver one season in five of his last six. And after that early slow start at the beginning of the season last year, he was an 18 point per game receiver weeks 10 onward and now he gets to work with the MVP runner up in potentially one of the pass heavy most pass heavy offenses he's ever been a part of in Tennessee and in Philadelphia. They've been runheavy teams. The Patriots projection that I have for him here of 548 attempts isn't even that aggressive of a projection and it would still be one of the highest totals of AJ Brown's career that he's ever been a part of. And you if you go back to the times that AJ Brown's been about a 550 pass attempt offense, he has posted 17 points per game in 2023 with Philly, 17 points per game in 2022 with Philly, and a top eight receiver in points per game both of those years, a top six receiver overall. So, not even including the fact that I think they could very easily give the reigns to Drake May. Year two, they added two receivers. It's very clear to me that Josh McDaniels is going to give him more leeway, more of a chance to prove that he's an elite NFL quarterback. And knowing that that could be the case and they could throw the ball 600 times, that gives AJ Brown the opportunity to really crush like a 10 touchdown, 13,400 yard season and potentially be an 18 point per game receiver himself. Like if I had to make a hot take here, I think it's possible that AJ Brown could out outscore a number of the receivers going ahead of him in ADP, including Jackson Smith and Jigba, Amanra St. Brown, CD Lamb, and then obviously the guys going just ahead of him like your Nico Collins, Rasheed Rice, that kind of territory, and even a Drake London. So for me, I just I really really like the projection of AJ Brown. if you're on the board at the end of the second round. I think he is an absolute hammer that you can get for your fantasy team in 2026.
The New Orleans Saints. Um, obviously I have a bit of a bias towards this team. I, as a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan, dislike this team with every fiber of my being, but I did try and remove a lot of my bias in this in this um exercise and try and root a lot of what I was doing with the Saints in career averages in projections. And you guys might see, okay, Chris Ave has a little more a little bit more of a down season, but that's a large part in uh due to Jordan Tyson coming in. And you guys can see that I have Tyler Shuck projected for, let's call it, a modest season because 3,888 passing yards is actually above his Vegas total. 21 touchdowns is actually above his Vegas total. So again, I'm not trying to be that guy who shits on the least favorite team that he has in the NFL, but it's not like I'm projecting Tyler Shuck to throw 15 touchdowns and 3,200 yards. I'm actually above where Vegas is projecting him because I do think that NFL defenses can catch up to him just a little bit. And the biggest effect that I see on this offense and maybe the the worst pick on the board in this offense right now is Travis ETN. And a lot of it's to do with Travis ETN as well because this team is projected for seven and a half games. I don't think that they are going to win nine, 10, 11 football games like some people will. I think that the NFC South is going to be a dog fight. Somebody's going to win it with nine or 10 wins. And the Saints and Falcons and Carolina Panthers all could be picking somewhere between number 10 in the NFL draft and number 22 in the NFL draft. I think it's going to be a very close division. And I would take the lower on Saints to to finish with higher than seven and a half wins. Chuck flashed high efficiency marks, which I kind of regressed marginally because he only started like nine games. But I do think defensive coordinators can catch up to him with more tape. He doesn't have an elite arm. He doesn't have elite mobility. He's not an elite accuracy quarterback. He's pretty much just solid across the board in all of those areas. And ETN's backfield split is the issue for me here because he goes from Liam Con's rushing scheme, which saw Bucky Irving rush for 5.4 yards per carry his rookie season, and then go down to 3.4 4 yards per carry. His second season without Liam Conn. And the other big issue here is Alvin Chimera. Alvin Chimera is still on this team. Alvin Chimera will be in the Saints Ring of Honor one day. And I still think even at this point in his career, he's a good goal linebacker and he's a good receiving back. So even giving Travis ETN matching a careerhigh with 59% of the carries from his best season in Jacksonville, posting above average efficiencies, above average target shares for his career, he still only comes out with 12.31 points per game. Maybe if you're higher on the Saints offense, that's 13 14 points per game. But generally speaking, if you have to take a player like that in the range of Kairen Williams, Javvante Williams, Bruce Hall, who I expect to all be about 15 points per game running backs, I just think that Travis ETN is extremely overvalued. I think that he should be going a middle in the middle of the running back dead zone in the fifth in the sixth round where you would get a Quinch Sean Judkins, a Trevian Henderson, a Cam Scataboo, a Jadarian Price. That's the territory he belongs to me. And I actually have him ranked well below a lot of those guys because I like the backfield upside of a lot of them. him a little bit more cuz they're younger players, they're ascending players. So for me, Travis ETN, this is not news to anybody who's been following the channel, but I do think he may be one of the worst picks in fantasy football where he currently goes around that 34 turn. Because again, when I look at his career averages, 54% of the carries last year, 59% of the carries in his best season. This is not a guy who's going to command 75% of the carries in his age 27 season. I get the big contract. I get all that stuff. But he's also not going to command a massive target share either because if you're going to get Alvin Chimera on the field in any capacity for the New Orleans Saints, it's going to be as a receiver. So, I think he's going to lose some valuable touches both on the ground in the receiving game and potentially on the goal line as well. So, that's kind of where I'm at with Travis ETN. It's not a guy that I'm extremely excited about drafting and in fact, I'm actively fading.
Moving to the New York Giants. Now, the Giants, the more I got into them, the more I got lower on them, winning a lot of games, having a breakout season, and, you know, being a good fantasy friendly environment because the New York Giants go from the fast-paced uptempo offense of the Brian Dayball era to the slow-paced subh historical 50% pass rate offense of John Harbaugh. And Matt Naggie calling the plays also doesn't give me a whole lot of, you know, faith in this offense because I think Brian Dball is actually a better play caller and coach than what they currently have in the New York Giants brass. So for me, I'm fading Jackson Dart at his high cost. Even though I like the player, 17 points per game out of this quarterback is probably not what you would expect out of a quarterback who's going in like the eighth, ninth round. I just prefer the other options around him. I would rather take Brock Pury. I would rather take um Boone Knicks. I would rather take Trevor Lawrence. I would rather take Dak Prescott. Even guys lower down the board I have projected similarly like a Baker Mayfield. I would rather take Jared Goff. Like there's a lot of guys in this territory that I'm just not super high on Jackson Dart because again I'm projecting them for a 51% projected pass rate which is actually an increase over the John Harbaugh era. I'm expecting Malik Neighbors to start on the pup and after he's on the pup I'm expecting them to have like a month of ramp up period. So without Malik Neighbors on the field at the beginning of the season, this is maybe one of the worst wide receiver cores in the NFL. My big takeaway from this team was the only one I'm interested in is the running back Cam Scataboo because Cam Scataboo when healthy last season was commanding a large share of the carries. He was commanding a large target share as well, a 13.1% target share. And even with Jackson Dart rushing over 100 times like I have him in the projections here, Cam Scataboo and the backfield still has plenty of carries left over. Over four almost 400 carries left over. And Cam Scaboo's 14.2 PPR point per game projection as a baseline here assumes that he doesn't have basically any growth from the opportunity share that he saw as a rookie. I in fact have him for a 64% opportunity share which is lower than he had in the games that he was starting as a rookie. So, for me, Cam Scataboo is the best value on this team and really the only guy that I'm interested in because I do expect them to be run heavy. I do expect them to lean on Cam Scaboo and I'm not really sure that Neighbors is going to be back on the field right away. And when he's back on the field, it might take him some time to get ramped up. And it's a new coaching staff. It's a new offensive scheme. I do expect this team to start slow in the first 5 to 10 games, especially if their best receiver is not out there. So, for me, Giants may be a bit of an avoid at cost and uh especially Neighbors given his his price tag with the injury that I'm expecting him to start on Pup.
Similarly for the New York Jets, kind of the only player I want on this team is the running back as well because with Bree Hall, the Jets are projected for a top five draft pick. And I agree, I think that they're going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL just from a wins and losses perspective. They went and they signed the quarterback that hand gifted the uh the Fernando Mendoza era to the Las Vegas Raiders. And the brain trust of Aaron Glenn at head coach and Frank Reich at offensive coordinator to me has disaster written all over it. You can be higher on the Jets upside and think, hey, maybe at best case scenario, they can be the 22nd best offense in football or the 19th best offense in football. And I like some of the young pieces that the Jets added with Omar Cooper, with Kenyan Sadi, but I expect the 2027 New York Jets to be when I'm starting to get back in on them. This year with Gino Smith and with Garrett Wilson having more target competition. I'm just not interested in this passing game. Gino Smith fed Ashen Genty 70 plus targets last year. And Bree Hall, the last time he had a quarterback that was checkdown prone, targeted him so heavily that he led the position with 95 targets and he had the most receptions of any running back in the league. He was coming off of a torn ACL in 2023 and led the running back position in receiving yards. So for me, even with modestly projecting Bree Hall for 73 targets, even with modestly projecting Bree Hall for only 63% of the carries, both of those lower than his last two opportunity shares combined, he had a 67% opportunity share in my projections. In 2024, the last time the Jets, you know, had reasonable quarterback play, he was up over 73% of the opportunity. So for me, Bree Hall has the most upside of anybody in this offense. And we now know he's capable of being the full three down workload because they paid him. He is definitely going to not seed work to Brilen Allen or Isaiah Davis except for here and there. And it's a young developing offensive line that hopefully can open up some bigger holes for Bree Hall because the best thing that he did in 2023, the last time he was a top 10 running back in fantasy was break big plays. That was his thing. He wasn't scoring a lot of touchdowns in the red zone. He wasn't scoring a lot of touchdowns on the goal line. And that's nothing new for this offense. And I'm not expecting that. I'm projecting them to be the third worst offense in football in terms of points per game. But what I am projecting is Bree Hall to actually get back to running the ball, you know, 70 plus yard touchdowns, having those 50 plus yard receptions like we saw from him in 2023. He should be fully healthy. He should be ready to go behind a young developing offensive line. Who knows? Maybe Gino is better than I'm giving him credit for, but I am projecting this offense as if Gino is going to stink and the Jets are going to have a top five pick because I think that's their goal. They want a quarterback in 2027. And like I said, in Bree Hall's career, the biggest predictive mark of future fantasy production is past fantasy production. And he's been a top seven running back twice in his career in points per game.
Now, let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles. Now, I almost made my takeaway that I think I'm getting a little bit higher on Jaylen Herz because when you project out Jayen Herz and you go, okay, if he gets back to career averages in terms of, you know, completion percentage and yards per attempt and that type of thing, the increase in volume, let me repeat, the increase in pass volume that I'm expecting for the Philadelphia Eagles, they've been historically in the last couple of years 49% pass rate, 50% pass rate type of team with Shawn Manion coming in, the additions that they made, Mai Lemon, Eli Stoers, Dantavian Wixs, Hollywood Brown. That indicates to me that they are looking to go in more of a pass heavy direction. So, I have them as a 54% pass rate team, which is only a modest increase. And that is kind of projecting the like Shawn Manion coaching tree bringing in a little bit of that pass heaviness. And that's the narrative we've heard around the team. So, my biggest takeaway is that the passing game of this team is kind of undervalued. And specifically, Mai Lemon, the rookie first round receiver. I think he is channeling his inner Garrett Wilson because as you guys might recall in Garrett Wilson's rookie uh rookie season, nobody wanted him in fantasy because the Jets were bad. They couldn't throw the ball and Garrett Wilson broke out as a result of that. Garrett Wilson is precisely as good of a prospect as Mai Lemon. Garrett Wilson actually worse in the prospect model. Justin Jefferson, JSN, uh Travis Hunter, that was the territory that Mai Lemon was in my prospect model in the Dynasty rookie off seasonason. The Eagles have been vocal about throwing the ball more, targeting the middle of the field more, and now their actions just said that they are actually going to do that because they got the best middle-of the- field wide receiver in the entire draft and probably the second best middle of the field target in Eli Stoers in the second round. So, with Devonte Smith now tasked with number one corners, which I think he can handle, I'm expecting an offensive rookie of the year type of performance from Mai Lemon because all he's ever done in his college career is produce alongside good target competition. In 2023 when he broke out or 2024 when he broke out, he produced alongside Jacobe Lane, alongside Zachariah Branch, alongside Deuce Robinson, alongside Woody Marks at running back who was second on the team in receptions. Mai Lemon can handle target competition. He's going to see number two corners, slot defensive backs for a rejuvenated Jaylen Herz. I think that this team is an addition by subtraction situation. You take away Kevin Patulo, an absolutely terrible play caller. You take away the vibes and the attitude and the rift between AJ Brown and the coaching staff and the quarterback, and I think you're going to get a rejuvenated Eagles passing offense. Rookies this good as Mai Lemon typically go in round three, round four, round five of reddraft leagues where Carnell Tate is going. Carnell Tate is going at the 56 turn in most drafts right now. And Mai Lemon goes in round seven, round eight, even round nine potentially in home reddraft format. So for me, I am taking the Mai Lemon discount. This is very similar to me as getting a discount on Jefferson and Garrett Wilson, their rookie seasons.
Now getting to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think the Steelers have been in this culde-sac of elite mediocrity in the NFL where they win seven to nine games or 10 games every single season, but nobody really likes them for fantasy. This season, I think that's going to change. And the reason I think it's going to change is because you have a quarterback who wants to throw the football even at his advanced age. You have a coach who all he does is throw the football. Mike McCarthy the last five years he's been a head coach has been above a 60% neutral pass rate. No other coach has done that. So, we're talking about a a coach and a quarterback combination that's going to lead to more pass volume. Even in seasons where Dak Prescott got hurt, Mike McCarthy still threw the ball like crazy. The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to get much more interesting this season. I know that people can go, "Oh, they weren't very interesting last year. DK Mechaf was the clear number one and still didn't really pay off very much at ADP." I think things are going to change. Michael Pitman Jr. is a massive value in drafts right now. I have him like 30 spots higher than his ADP, maybe even 40 higher than his ADP because I think he's exactly the type of receiver that Aaron Rogers gravitates towards. He's a chain mover, PPR stud, exactly what Rogers needed last season. And that's why he targeted Kenneth Gainwell and Warren so much. His target share the last three years. Michael Pitman Jr.'s is basically on par with what DK Metaf did as the clear-cut number one wide receiver in Pittsburgh last year. And we know Indianapolis has good targets there. They had Alec Pierce last year. They have Josh DS. They had Tyler Warren. And Michael Pitman, especially when Daniel Jones was healthy, was a differencemaking 14 plus point per game wide receiver too in fantasy. So the fact that he goes to an offense with a worse target earner in DK Mechaf, a guy that can operate in a different area of the field because he's more of a downfield and red zone target, I think we could see a 140 150 target season for Michael Pitman Jr. of which we haven't seen since 2023. So Michael Pitman easily one of the biggest values on the board for me in drafts right now. I have him projected for more targets and more fantasy points than DK Mechaf who goes higher than him and in fantasy drafts. And I also really love Jaylen Warren because Jaylen Warren in last season and years past, he's been a very efficient running back. You can see going back to his 2023 season, he's capable of commanding 74 targets on a season. And now Kenneth Gainwell is gone. Kenneth Gainwell vacates a huge target share from this offense. And I think with Rico D coming in, he's going to affect Jaylen Work. uh Jaylen Warren's work on the ground and this is a guy who finishes a top 20 running back on what I expect to be an improved offense with more target upside. So for me when you're on the board in the seventh eighth round and you need a running back Jaylen Warren is one of the premier premier options in my opinion and again don't be scared of this offense man. I think that Aaron Rogers is going to be a good streaming quarterback this year. I think that Pat Frymouth is going to be a value. I think that Michael Pitman and DK Mechaf both can pay off at their ADP. Even though I like Michael Pitman over DK Mechaf straight up, I don't even think DK Mechaf's really a bad pick where he's going either because I just think the offensive environment has gotten increased so so much from what it was before. So, um, Pittsburgh Steelers definitely a team that surprised me in general.
Moving into the San Francisco 49ers. This may be the most risky offense in football. And the reason I say that is because they're just kind of a house of cards. You have a team that always suffers injuries every single year now relying on a 33-year-old post Achilles tight end, a 33-year-old hamstring prone number one receiver, and Christian McAffrey, who we all know is live to go down at any point in time because he has thousands and thousands of touches under his belt. All this to me points the direction of the 49ers offense as taking the contingent value plays late. Finding out who the number two running back is behind Christian McAffrey and drafting them like crazy. Whether it's Jordan James or Keelin Black, I've been taking shares of both of those guys in the event that Christian McAffrey goes down. Taking Ricky Pierall in the ninth in the 10th round in case he ends up going um, you know, nuclear and having a breakout season because Evans got hurt or KD got hurt or whatever the case is. I think assuming health for all three of these top players, you're not going to get too excited about Ricky Piol's 9.45 points per game. But I do think if Evans were to miss time, if McCaffrey were to miss time, if KD were to miss time, they would have to shift focus maybe towards using Ricky Pieraw a little bit more. And I think taking the risk on CMC is absolutely worth it because you know what he can be when he's healthy. But KD and Evans where they're going right now in the fourth round for Mike Evans in the ninth round I would say for George KD and in home leagues maybe he even goes higher than that. I do worry that the juice may not be worth the squeeze. Evans is not a major target earner at this point in his career. I think we're going to see 21 22 maybe 23% of the targets on this team. The upside that you're hoping for for Mike Evans is that he's a boomer bust touchdowner bust wide receiver two in fantasy which he absolutely can be and that's what I have him projected for here with 13 points per game. But if he doesn't score 10 plus touchdowns I don't see him really paying off at 80p right now cuz I don't think he's going to just suddenly command 28% of the team's targets. Even though I think he's going to get schemed open more and I think he's going to have a lot of good efficiency numbers. I'm not holding my breath that Mike Evans, George KD, and Christian McCaffrey at their advanced age are going to produce a top five offense in football. I think if they do, which I have them projected for like the 10th, 11th best offense in football right now, it's going to be more on the back of Brock Perie really taking the step and carrying this offense because we saw that last season. So, Evans, KD, those guys, they scare me just a little bit. I can't lie to you.
Um, let's talk about Jackson Smith and Jigba and the Seattle Seahawks. If I go to my Seahawks projections and I look through and I go, okay, Jackson Smith and Jigba is coming off of a historical season, a 2025 season in which he commanded a 36% target share, well over 3.5 yards per run. I have him ranked below Amra St. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nua, all the guys that he's going around. And the reason I have him ranked at 107 in ADP, even though he's going 104, 105, is because without Clint Kubak perfectly scheming things up for both Sam Darnold and for JSN, I'm expecting a little bit of regression from the reigning offensive player of the year in the big play department and in the touchdowns department specifically because the Seahawks were a great offense last year. They scored the ball like crazy. They were top five offense in scoring, but they're not a great offense in terms of pace of play, in terms of tempo, in terms of pass rate, in terms of total plays that they ran. So, if they're going to regress a little bit and be like, let's say, the 12th, 13th, 14th best offense in football, I have them projected for about a league average offense, I think it's going to hurt the bottom line of Jackson Smith and Jigba. I still have him as a dominant number one receiver, second best target share behind only Puka Nua in football. But if this offense isn't throwing the ball and they lose their guru play caller like they did and the defense is still elite and they're probably going to want to run the ball that might be limiting the pace, the overall plays and the touchdown and big play opportunity of Jackson Smith and Jigba. Plus maybe Rasheed Shahed, AJ Barner, Cooper Cup, Tory Horton, Elijah Royo and that cast of characters can eat into JSN's 30% target share, 36% target share to be clear and the running backs maybe are more involved in the backfield uh passing game as well. So, for me, I just I'm a little bit worried that we got JSN's best season. And I don't want to draft him, you know, at 105 thinking that he's going to have yet another 21 22 points per game like he had last season. I think he's going to be more in the 17 to 20 points per game. And it's all going to depend on how good Darnold plays and how uptempo the offense is, which I'm not expecting it to be super uptempo.
So, moving in to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, my favorite team obviously trying to take the bias out of things just to give you guys an idea. I have them projected for a slightly below average offense, which I think is totally fair because Baker Mayfield in his Buccaneers tenure has been at least an average quarterback and at times has played like a top 10 quarterback. This projection for this team actually made me a little higher on Bucky Irving. You guys can see the Igbuka and the Godwin connection and what I have projected for the receiver core. I think it's going to go as ADP has it where Igbuka is going to be a good pick at his cost. Godwin's going to be a good pick at his cost. Maybe you'll get some use out of Jaylen McMillan and K. Do at their cost, but Bucky Irving is the guy that I wanted to focus on because I think his projection with Zack Robinson coming in may be slightly better than I thought. We know in his tenure with Los Angeles and his tenure with Atlanta that he likes targeting his running back position. Okay, Baker Mayfield, I have projected for about his career averages in his Buccaneers tenure. And that is a much better quarterback than we saw down the stretch of the season in 2025. Since week six of Bucky Irving's rookie season when healthy, he's averaged 19 opportunities per game, three and a half of those being targets. Even with Kenneth Gainwell coming in, I have him projected for 57% of the carries, which is not a high number. That's a 10% decrease than what he had last season at 67%, which Brashad White there, who I think is going to play a similar role as Kenneth Gainwell is going to play. And Shawn Tucker, I don't expect his role to increase a ton. He'll probably be involved at times. He still comes out Bucky Irving with 13 PPR points per game. And that's with Gen Kenneth Gainwell outtargeting him and Bucky Irving getting less than half of the rushing touchdowns in this back field which feels like I'm being on the pessimistic side of things. I don't know, man. In round five, in round six, especially if he falls to that point, I feel like he's worth the risk assuming, and this is a big if, that he is healthy in training camp. If he is not healthy in training camp, that's going to cause me to continue to move Bucky Irving down and to continue to move Kenneth Gainwell and Shawn Tucker up. But it does sound like we got some good reports at the end of OTAAS and mini camps where he was out there practicing with the team. It's all going to come down to health for Bucky Irving. Is he if he is healthy, I expect him to be closer to those 17, 18, 19 opportunity per game running back that he's been. And that's going to make for a high upside RB2 on your roster, maybe even a really good flex option if you already pick two running backs to that point in your draft. So again, I know I'm being optimistic because I'm a Buccaneers fan, but I don't think what I projected for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense and what I'm projecting for Bucky Irving is outside of the range of outcomes. And I also only projected him for 4.4 yards per carry. Last year, he was at 3.4 dealing with the injuries. In 2024, when he was a rookie, he was at 5.4. So, I think that Zack Robinson, like I said, pretty much just a happy medium between the offense last year and the offense in 2024, which saw Baker Mayfield throw for 40 touchdowns. So, um there is an upside to this offense, even though I'm not really projecting that to be the case.
The Tennessee Titans, um after I went through the Titans projections, I'm convinced that this is an offense that's probably going to be bottom six to eight in the NFL. I don't think the pie of this offense is going to be big enough for everyone to pay off in a meaningful way. Yes, you're going to get some good games out of Tony Pard. I actually have Nick Singleton projected as the second leading back on this team. I think by midseason, he can carve out a third down role over Taj Spears because Spears is never able to stay healthy and Singleton's a very explosive player. But the guy that I want to focus on in this in this team is Carnell Tate. Carnell Tate is getting in my projections 12.23 PPR points per game. Now, that's solid in a reddraft league because on ESPN, on Sleeper, on Yahoo, he's going to go in round seven, round eight, round nine because your home league mates are dumb and they're not going to take him very high. But in baseball and in sharper rooms where he's going at the five, six turn, maybe even in the midf round at times, I'm not sure that taking an a rookie ex wide receiver with a big learning curve, who I have basically projected for the target share, efficiency, and rookie season of Marvin Harrison Jr., which I think is totally fair. I don't think that's going to be a crush at ADP. Tedoa McMillan had a better rookie season than what I'm projecting for Carnell Tate last season. And Tedo McMillan was not a needlemoving pick out of the five six turn where you took him in fantasy drafts last season. Even if Carnell Tate was slightly on par, even maybe if you think he's better than Tedella McMillan was as a prospect like Danny does, this Cam Ward offense and the presence of Wandell Robinson are two big problems. Juell Robinson has 140 targets back-to-back seasons. He is a legit target earner and when Calvin Ridley's been on the field, he can earn targets as well. So, I'm not just in good faith going to project Carnell Tate to have a 28% target share his rookie season. I don't think that's likely of happening. Even still, Cam Ward had a Zack Wilson, Blaine Gabbert, Bryce Young rookie year, sub 3% touchdown rate, terrible 5.9 yards per attempt, and a sub 60% completion. You can say, "Oh, he didn't have receivers. He was a bad coaching staff all you want." It's true. He definitely was not done any favors by his coaching staff and by his team. However, what you cannot say is that Carnell Tate and Cam Ward are just going to have these like massive efficiency seasons with a new coach, a young quarterback, a rookie receiver. I just think it's going to take time. I think that year two of Cam Ward is going to be a big development uptick, but I don't think it's going to be an outrageous development uptick. I think there's going to be a slow burn that maybe by year three, year four of Cam Ward's career because he was a very raw prospect coming out of school, that's when he arrives if he ends up hitting in the NFL, which of course is not a guarantee. So for me, I look at this Cam Ward offense and I think I just don't really want anybody. I just don't think that this offense is going to produce a mega smash in fantasy points per game. Could you take Tony Pard in the eighth round? Sure. Could you take Carnell Tate, let's say, in the seventh round of your reddraft league? Could you take Wandell Robinson in the ninth, tth round, 11th round of your reddraft league? Sure. I just don't think you're going to get a needle mover from this offense because again, Vegas six and a half win projected total. Vegas also has them projected for like the 27th best offense in football. I do not think that Brian Dball is a miracle worker. And I also do not think it's outrageous for me to project 59% completion percentage Cam Ward to 64.9%. That is a major increase. 5.9 yards per attempt to 6.6 six yards uh per attempt. Also a major increase. I projected him for upticks across the board and I still could not get this offense to a point where I'm like, "Hell yeah, I'm in on everybody." Carnell Tate, wide receiver, 25 in fantasy. Like, it's just hard to get there with this offense because I do think there's going to be growing pains. I do think there's going to be learning curves. So, that is my thoughts on the Titans. Again, um very challenging offense to target.
Let's talk about the Washington Commanders, the final team in these projections. Now again, if you want access to the projections, you can get them one of two ways. You can get them by signing up on Underdog using the promo code FSE, making a deposit, making a play on the site within 24 hours, the Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide, the Dynasty Rookie Film Breakdowns, the reddraft rankings manifesto, and the 2026 fantasy football projections. All will be in your inbox. You'll get a link from Underdog. You'll say, "Oh, thanks for signing up with Code FSE." And then you get access to that stuff instantly. You'll also get our weekly start sit rankings once they're live at the beginning of the season as well. And of course, all of that is available on Flock Fantasy as well if you've already used underdog or signed up with our code in the past.
Washington Commanders, my biggest takeaway here was that Terry McLaren is live to smash. So, you might notice with my Washington Commanders projections that there is a player in my projections that is not currently on the roster. Brandon Iayuk I have slated as the wide receiver too on this team because I think inevitably the 49ers will cut him before training camp and the commanders will sign him before training camp. Now if they don't I think that the commanders around the time of training camp will pivot to Stefon Diggs who's a native to the area or Debo Samuel who was on the team last year or maybe even Keenan Allen. So, even with the projection that there's a wide receiver 2 veteran on the team, if you want to just replace Brandon Iayuk's production there with veteran wide receiver 2 that they add at some point, I think that Washington's offense is very, very much in store for a bounceback, especially as it relates to Terry McLaren. I have Jaden Daniels projected for a modest low 20 point per game total. I don't think he's going to crush his ADP, but I do think he's a good pick because of his rushing tendencies. And I actually have them down ticking how much he runs the ball. He has run the ball about eight and a half times per game on average. I have him for seven and a half because they want him to stay healthy. They don't want him to get injured. Maybe they down his rushing to some degree. If I look at Terry McLaren's 2020 uh 4 season where he finished with 15.75 points per game, 13 touchdowns, 1100 yards, the reason that I'm excited about Terry McLaren is two things. Number one, I think he's still going to be a really good red zone and big play option. And I think Jaden Daniels, when you're looking at his numbers from 2024 and 2025, if you project those together, that is kind of how you arrive at the Commanders being about a league average offense is where I have them projected. And then the other thing is that even though I think Terry McLaren's touchdown reg uh rate is going to regress from what it was in 2024, and it did regress in 2025, his 23.3% target share that I have him projected for is the exact same total that he had last year and the year before that. He does not come out with 14.5 points per game on accident. He is a great four five turn pick receiver because of this reason. David Blau who takes over the offensive coordinator position from Cliff Kingsbury, a proven offensive coordinator who's been successful in the NFL. They fired him or let him walk for a firstear offensive coordinator who was a backup quarterback in the league for a while who is clearly a sharp offensive mind for him to get that vote of confidence. David Blau, where does he come from? Ben Johnson's offense because he played in it and also Ben Johnson's coaching tree. I think what they're going to do with Terry McLaren this year, unlike any season of his career so far, is move him around the formation. Stop aligning him at left x receiver and making him work against number one corners down in down out 13 14 yards a dot down the field. I think what they're going to do a little bit more of in the future with um with Terry McLaren is move him in the slot, move him around the formation. And that has never happened in his career. And that is how he gets to his ceiling. I'm projecting him basically what he's been the last two years. But if he gets to his ceiling, it's 17 18 points per game because they move him around the formation. So again, for me, Terry McLaren is absolutely live to smash his ADP. I didn't think he was a good pick last year because of the whole contract hold out and uh the chemistry and that kind of thing, but I do think he's a good pick this year. And honestly, Brandon Iayuk, Debo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, whoever gets added to the team, I think just helps him honestly. Like Brandon Iayuk is the most talented receiver of the receivers that could get added to the team. And it's possible that if he gets added and he's the same player because he's, you know, at the same playing weight and all that kind of stuff. It seems like he's motivated to play there. He could produce 11, 12, 13 points per game and make Terry McLaren a little bit less effective, but I don't think anybody's counting on that. Brandon Iayuk's ADP is in the 180s on underdog and nobody's rushing to draft him at this point in time. And again, if it's Debo, if it's Diggs, I don't think it's going to hurt Terry McLaren in a meaningful way.
So, that is uh all 32 teams projected. Biggest takeaways. I went through every single NFL team, gave you my biggest takeaway from doing projections. Of course, these projections will be updated as the offseason goes along. There's a reason I did them in spreadsheet form, so I can update them when I feel like it. And of course when we hear reports like for example you guys just saw I have Rashad White leading the backfield in Washington. If we hear the contrary and it's Jakori Kroski Merritt leading the backfield in Washington I make adjustments as I go. And again you will always have access to the most updated version of the projections via flockfantasy.com via the reddraft rankings manifesto which you can get either on the site or by an underdog sign up. Both of those will be linked down below in the pin comment. Leave a like if you guys enjoyed this series. Subscribe to the channel if you guys are new around here. As of right now, I'm a married man. I'm recording this Thursday morning, the day before my wedding, but I am posting this Saturday, the day after my wedding. So, I'm going to be on honeymoon for the next couple of uh days. I'm not going to be back until like July 14th. So, Danny is going to be running the household while I'm gone. He's got a couple of guests lined up. Make sure you tune in for all of those videos. Uh I won't give away any of the guests, but you definitely know who they are. So, peace out and I'll talk to you soon.