BREAKING: IRAN CEASEFIRE "OVER" - w/ Fmr. CIA Larry Johnson

Good. Despite all the mayhem.

Yeah, it's worse. It's worse today than yesterday. We were remember yesterday we're talking about they've lifted the sanctions. So the US lifted the sanctions waiver that they that that was part of the MOU on Iranian oil and petrochemicals and we were wondering would would there be more strikes? Would that be the end of it? And then they struck Iran and then they struck him again today despite Iran not striking ships today. So I thought today Iran did not strike any ships in the Strait of Hormuz. I'm like, okay, maybe the US would delay their strikes, but they did not. They struck Iran. They struck multiple locations. Stephanie, you could show that that map was showing earlier with all the locations, but included Bushehr, Bandar Kangan, Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Abu Musa Island, the one that's contested with Abu with with the UAE, Qeshm, Sirri, Qeshm Island, Jask, Konarak, and Chabahar. All of it is, as you can see, is on the coastline. All of them are similar targets they've struck before. Uh, some of them are new since the ceasefire, but all targets that include um the radars, the the uh the the missile launchers for the anti-ship missiles, the um the uh the ships, the small attack boats, etc.

So all that happened while Trump also said that the MOU is dead. And there's a report by CNN that uh according to an official, the ceasefire with Iran has quote, has at least temporarily seized, according to US officials speaking to CNN. So that's where we're at now. The attacks have stopped. Now all eyes are obviously on Iran to see how they'll retaliate. Um, what's your initial reaction?

Uh, well, you know, the United States has violated the MOU and I think the Iranians are goddamn crazy if they continue with it. Simple. They need they need to pull out of the MOU and they need to begin uh an unrestrained missile bombardment of Israel and US bases.

Why would they strike Israel though? Israel is not part of these attacks because of Lebanon.

Oh yeah, because of Lebanon. And how do you know Israel is in part of these attacks? How do you know that the the planes are not coming out of Israel?

You don't.

No, we haven't had um the the Iranians haven't mentioned Israel either. They've just been blaming the US. So

why do you The US is the US is there for only one reason, Israel. You you got you've got to destroy the military capability. And US US has got planes based in Israel. last I checked.

By the way, in terms of planes in Israel, some of them have gone from Ben Gurion. Um, you just reminded me, I saw a report earlier today, a few three few of these planes went from Ben Gurion to I don't know if it's the one in Bahrain or I'd have to check it, but some of their planes were going I've saved it cuz I know we talk about it a lot of the military movements. Let me see if I can find it. So, uh, if I I'll find it. But there were some of them that were moved to so some aircraft moved from Europe to the region. So there's been some military maneuvering done to prepare for potentially more strikes. Let me see if I can find it. Um I'll find it and mention it to you. But yeah, some of it came from Ben Gurion to the Gulf and so closer to Iran, I think Qatar or Bahrain. Um, and some of it came from Europe into the Persian Gulf as well. So just a bit of a military buildup. Nothing. There's a lot of equipment still there, but thought it's worth mentioning.

Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean look, Iran's got to figure out uh it's it keeps getting played. I know there are a number the Iranians on the ground and and Americans on the ground for that matter in Iran for the funeral. U you know um the reporting the people the people are chanting for revenge. So the and there's there is quite a bit of anger directed at Zarif and Rouhani for being too soft to uh too conciliatory to the United States and the West. So I I think this thing's going to heat up.

Um, so this is I found the source by the way. This is the satellite imagery to show the aircraft that moved from the sixth or 3 days ago. Uh, another 17. So, if you click on the one under it, click on the one under it first. No, take out of the image. Go out of the image. Um, click on the tweet under it. Click on the tweet. Not the image, just the tweet. Uh, there you go. Click on the tweet there. Just say yep. So, click on that. Okay. H. So, this one shows nearly 15 US Air Force aerial refueling aircraft have left Ben Gurion airport in central Israel and been redeployed to other regional bases including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Around 47 tankers are still stationed at the airports as of yesterday. So that was uh that was a while ago by the way. So that was about two weeks ago. And now if you go back so this tweet is from two couple weeks ago and this one is new. So this the one I showed you before is two weeks ago. This is another 17 US Air Force refueling tankers have left Ben Gurion airport. So this one is yesterday or was published yesterday from three days ago. The satellite images from three days ago um and went to Qatar as well, bringing the total number of US Air Force tankers that have departed the airport to 32 and there's 32 that are still left in Ben Gurion airport. I just thought I'd um I'd show you that I'm not sure whether

Well, just those aircraft are facilitating the attacks on Iran. They need to be destroyed.

From Iran's standpoint. So Iran could also just um another strategy by Iran is you know just wait it out because their biggest leverage is the Strait of Hormuz and that's the biggest pain point they have. So if they keep the the all this is in my view Trump lashing out because of Iran striking ships going through the Omani side. So they control the Strait of Hormuz. So all that Iran needs to do is just keep doing that. That's probably their biggest lever. Obviously, they can escalate. They can keep attacking American bases, but I think the Strait of Hormuz causes more damage than the strikes on the American bases that already heavily damaged or strike the Gulf, which I don't think we're at that stage yet.

Why? Why is it either or? Why are you presenting that as an either or? You can do both at the same time. Take out their tankers and maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Let put you got to inflict the pain on the United States so it knows no, you can't keep bombing us at will. You can't keep doing this. There is no justification for this. Everything Iran has been doing in terms of enforcing compliance with the routes traveled in the Strait of Hormuz is totally in harmony with the MOU. They have not. Iran has not violated the MOU.

So I mean you know

Do you think they'll strike more than Bahrain and Kuwait today or will be the same as yesterday, just Bahrain and Kuwait again?

Well, I I don't know. You know, if if they do like yesterday, they're going to limit it. U if they were doing it what I'm thinking, they'd expand it. They should hit They should hit Qatar. If they're at Al Udeid, take out Al Udeid. Destroy those planes. You destroy those planes, you destroy the ability of the United States to attack you. That's what they want to do. Stop the attacks. Destroy the planes.

What do you make of Trump's comments that the MOU is dead and the CNN report that the um ceasefire is temporarily what did they say is temporarily seized has at least temporarily seized according to US official warning that the situation remains highly fluid and that additional strikes have not been ruled out but they say further offensive strikes remain possible depending on how the situation develops.

So I think um the way I view it is the US has uh has kind of made it clear that they would be the rules of engagement that whenever ships are attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side the US will will strike Iran.

That's not in the whole

That that has nothing to do in the MOU. The United States has no right to strike Iran for enforcing who gets to come through the Strait of Hormuz. Paragraph five says very clearly it is Iran's responsibility to decide who comes through the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't say only on the Iranian side. It it says the Strait of Hormuz entire. And so the United States has no justification whatsoever to launch those attacks even though they're claiming oh we do we're intervening because Iran was enforcing the protocols that were placed in there and we're the ones that signed off. We the United States are the ones that signed off on the memo giving Iran that power and now we're taking we're trying to take it back.

Yeah. So I'm saying these are the the new rules I'm not saying right or wrong or justified or not. So what the US is um is um is conveying right now to the to the Iranians that said it pretty explicitly whenever you attack ships. Actually JD Vance said it himself. So JD Vance says we made a deal with Iran. So the deal is very simple. If they shoot at ships we're going to knock the hell out of them. And it's that simple. And that's the very basic way to work.

That's a lie. They did not make that agreement. Show me. Show me the

I'm not saying I'm not saying agreement.

He just said he just said we with Iran. We made an agreement with

Yeah, I know he's lying. I understand he's lying about the deal that this is the deal. But I'm just saying that the message that they're sending across worded in their own way um that he then says if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz down there's going to be a response from the American military. It's that simple. That's the deal. I know there's no deal that says that. But I'm saying this is what the Americans are saying to the Iranians right now. And delivering on on those words is that whenever the Iranians strike ships, the Americans strike Iran. That's been happening for the last few weeks, but now they're going to be striking them more extensively. The Iranian response has been through these entire weeks up to today has been striking back the American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait. So these are the rules of engagement we have so far. Not sure whether that's going to change.

You're forgetting one thing. Yesterday Iran also launched anti-ship missiles.

Anti-ship missile. Yeah. According to Trump, 111.

Okay. I guarantee you some of those missiles hit the ships. That's why Trump reacted the way he did today. But I don't know if it's 111 missiles. He said missiles, but it could have been 111 projectiles because the reports would mean

A projectile doesn't fly that far.

Drone.

A drone, you know, 200 miles. That's probably a maximum range for an Iranian drone. Most of the drones.

No, these they were described as anti-ship missiles.

I take him at his word.

But Trump, this is Trump's word. Like how to take Trump exaggeration. Iran last night announced that it launched anti-ship missiles at US vessels.

So it wasn't just Trump's words.

No, they did. They did. We we I think they did it maybe just after we went live. I think it was during our live, but back then it was I think the report was two or six.

So it's a much smaller attack from these OSINT sources.

Well, they didn't they didn't say how many they launched.

No, not Iran. I'm talking about the OSINT sources. They that were spotted missile launchers. U but there was just a handful. If it's 111 actual missiles yet, that would be pretty damn significant. But I just don't I don't know if if Iran I don't know how Iran would retaliate today and whether they're going to do it any differently than yesterday. Um, and my worry is that if if the US keeps this rules of engagement, this new back and forth, Iran strikes a ship, the US attacks Iran. Um, my worry is that when because Iran's been relatively restrained so far. Will we get to a stage where Iran would respond in a disproportionate way and things change? Um, because they haven't there's been a more significant attack, more extensive attacks, I think 80 something targets according to the Iranians in Bahrain and Kuwait. Um, but it's still Bahrain and Kuwait. It's not the UAE. It's not Saudi. It's not any energy infrastructure, but it's also not any energy infrastructure on the Iranian side. The Americans are striking the the same targets they've always struck. They didn't strike anything in Tehran or deep into Iran. They didn't strike, as far as I know, nothing none of the big underground facilities and none of the energy infrastructure as well. So, I think it's more aggressive attacks, but similar targets. We don't we don't know what they actually did.

I mean, I wouldn't be so sure that they didn't strike any energy sites. I don't know. I haven't All we know is all we know is the geographic locations that they struck. That's all we know.

Yeah. I think the um the Iranians were talking about war struck. I think there was eight, nine casualties yesterday. Um, there was um, there was a small power outage in in one of the cities that was struck today and similar to what we saw yesterday. We saw power outages I think cyber attack in Bahrain and Kuwait but there was a power outages outages one of the cities that was struck but nothing too significant. So it might have been just some damage during the strikes.

Um, but had there's a strike near Bushehr but then the video showed it was an air defense battery by the looks of it.

Um, I've got some Trump statements for you. Let's just quickly read them. They just came out now. Speaking on Air Force One, I'm number he says on Iran, I'm number one on their list before you, but if I go, you go. So perhaps someday you want to change professions. I don't know what he means under like if he goes as in they kill him. Then he says, we just hit them very hard and I say we hit them 20 to one. Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them 20. When they hit, we hit back much harder. Then he says, "We've already won militarily. They called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly. I just don't know if they're worthy of making a deal. I don't know if they're going to honor the deal. That's the problem." Then a reporter asks him, "If Iran wants a deal, why do you think they attacked commercial vessels?" Trump says, "Because they're so they're sort of crazy to be honest with you. They're a little bit out of control, but they want to make a deal badly." Um, then he criticizes Spain, talks about removing uh he he's asked if he's going to remove more troops from Europe. He said he hasn't made a decision. And then he says a lot of it depends on Greenland. And then he says we're going to make a very good deal on Greenland. So he's back to Greenland. By the way, there's something pretty okay, this is a bad one. And he gets asked, "Did did President Assad make any commitments to you on helping with Hezbollah and Lebanon?" Trump's answer, which I really hope he's bullshitting. Yeah, he did. He's done a great job. He's unified Syria. I'm not going to say what he said, but yeah, he was great today.

So I I don't know. He Oh, he's unified Syria.

Trump's Trump's delusional.

He's absolutely he's not in touch with reality.

The you know this is um you know the he he's starting to back you know when he said oh they were calling begging for a deal. No, he's projecting. He's the one now begging for the deal to get the deal back on because what happened to the stock market today? What happened to the oil market today? Stock market crashed. Oil market soared.

Yeah, but oil is still below uh $75. Let me see.

Mario, stop. Stop talking about the paper. The paper is [ __ ] Talk about the price of oil coming off a ship that pulls into port. That's 110 $120 and likely to go up. H. No, I'm just because you talked about oil prices going up. I thought you were assuming the futures.

Well, the oil futures are going up.

Yeah, that's that's what I thought you were.

If they go if they go up, you know that the oil on the ships is going up.

Yeah, exactly. So, the prices there went up by 8.5% in the last 5 days. The oil futures. Um, I haven't looked at the stock market yet. Um, and then he has um President Trump on Iran. This is all about nuclear weapons, not allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons. Everybody should like that, even you. And then he says uh he says talks about settling eight wars, talks about India, Pakistan, etc. Um, and then the rest is US political stuff. I should have won a Nobel Peace Prize more than anybody that ever received it. Nobody settled wars. I settled eight of them. The timing of that statement is wild. Um, and there's another he report on the just came in on the um according to Iranian sources the the a lot of people are in Karbala right now for the Ayatollah funeral. The total number of attendees Iran and Iraq has exceeded 25 million according to Iranian sources. Um, on the Iranian side the statements have been relatively um nothing too significant. They're saying they're going to retaliate. Uh let me see if I've got the statements here. So, um, Zarif said major MOU violations by the US, violating Iranian adjustments in the straits, persistent threats of further strikes, reinstating oil sanctions, which we talked about yesterday, attacks in southern Iran, continued Zionist aggression on Lebanon, the era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don't fold. Um, but there's no reports of the Strait of Hormuz closed. There's Rouhani made a statement as well. Let me see if I can find it. Let me see. I can find it. Um uh okay, maybe it's an older statement. I'll see if he made a new statement, but um yeah, the Strait of Hormuz is not closed. They haven't retaliated yet today. Um, so nothing too significant on the Iranian front yet, unless we see it tonight.

Yeah. Well, um they will they will retaliate tonight. I mean, I don't think there's any doubt about that. Yeah, obviously.

And u how far they go with it. Um, well, and let's recognize Karbala that's over. All the all the activities there are done because it's uh let's see what it's 7:30 now. So that's uh it's 2 am or 3 am.

3 3 Yeah, it's 3 am in the morning.

So 2:30 in Karbala. 2:30.

Yeah. So the actually the body is en route to Mashhad.

Correct?

Um yeah, I think so. This is the burial place now. So I'm guess he's mad.

Yeah, Karbala is in Iraq, isn't it?

Karbala is in Iraq. Karbala, Iraq is over.

Um yeah, so Karbala is over and now it's heading back to the Today's July 9th is tomorrow. Tomorrow will be the burial, the last day of the uh of the freedom processions if I'm Mashhad is uh probably at least a thousand miles 2,000 miles from uh from uh uh Karbala. It's it's quite a distance.

Um, yeah, so nothing else on that front on the statements. So we've just read Trump's statements. We've read about the attack which was more significant than yesterday. Um, so you know it seems that the breathing obviously depends what what you want to what you believe the oil prices are but for some reason the Americans are um have escalated pretty significantly since yesterday. Um, we haven't seen any similar escalation from Iran. We'll see what happens tonight. But Iran's strategy is controlling the Strait of Hormuz. That is the the main um probably the biggest lever they have as we've talked about already um Israel on

Go if you if you notice today there was there there was no significant activity going through the Omani side all the traffic's going through the Iranian side yeah

But if you come back to the MOU, what part of the MOU is the United States not violating? I don't have an answer.

They're they're violating every single part of the MOU now. The they were supposed to lift the oil sanctions. They've reimposed the oil sanctions.

Well, according to Trump, the MOU is dead. He said himself.

Yeah. So, uh, you know, I think Iran should get the message and proceed accordingly because it's going to be the United States that's going to come begging for the deal because of the oil situation with with the uh high sulfur the lack of high sulfur oil and the uh strains that are going to be put on the supply of diesel and aviation fuel. But if there is these strains which by the way I spoke to Philip again today which um we spoken about and he uh um today's um the spread I forgot what it's called the I forgot what the term but the spread of the oil price that shows the cost of it coming out of the Strait of Hormuz confirms his theory that the cost of the oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz is $110 $115 the crack spread

confirms it because the spread went up by the So the 8% that it went up in the futures price, the same spike happened in the crack spread which shows that this means that there is the the the reason there's that big spread is because the cost of the oil is much higher than what is shown on the futures market. Um, but if so I ask him a question I'll ask you that same question. If we are seeing that you know the oil oil short there is no oil blot there is still an oil shortage the price of oil on the market that is being purchased by those refineries being so high there are the shortages in the US by the way they've refilled so Philip told me today they tiny bit of refill of the strategic reserves so they started refilling it but a very small

Wait okay stop with what oil with sweet crude or with sour crude not I guarantee I guarantee you. They're not refilling refilling it with sour crude. They're that's where the shortage is. That's where the problem is. Forget, you know, they they can they can be pumping all the sweet crude they want. The problem is the refineries in the United States are not set up to convert the sweet crude into diesel and aviation fuel. The only refineries that carry that task out are set up to handle sour crude. So you've got you can't just talk talking about it like it's coffee. You know, one just one bean's the same as another. Oh, one may be roasted a little. No, we're talking, you know, high sulfur content oil vice virtual no sulfur, low sulfur content. And that's that's where the problem is. They can refill they can refill the whole damn SPR with sweet crude. doesn't solve the sour crude problem the United States faces because it's always been a net importer of that and it does not produce that and so it needs the imports and in the past no problem because they imported from Russia Persian Gulf Venezuela Mexico and Canada. Two of those are gone now. Persian Gulf and Russia and Canada and Venezuela do not make up the So that's that reinforces. So I don't know. I haven't checked it myself. Some Philip told me that there was a bit of a refill today. Very small amount. So nothing too significant, but I haven't fact checked it or or um had a chance to look it up. But just a point, but you've made um what you've said kind of um links to my question as well. Um, considering all these factors, then what will be the because these are all factors on why Trump would just need to get the hell out of the the Persian Gulf and not restart war and avoid escalating. It's something we've said over the last few weeks as these are the reasons Trump wants to walk away, moving the military away. So, why would we see what do you think happened to lead him to escalate in the last 48 hours?

He doesn't remember what he decided from earlier. He apparently he's completely forgotten about he got a four-week supply left. And then we're not talking about sweet crude. We're talking about sour crude. The four weeks that's that was what was so you know it's going to bite him in the ass.

But like you I'm still trying to struggle what the thinking was that led to this decision.

H this is why I love you man. You you think that these people are thinking this through? You're thinking that they're sitting down weighing cost and benefit and what's rational and what's irrational. No. Uh I've seen I've seen too many people I mean one guy uh I will not mention him by name. He was the head of a major social media company. Now he got fired from it because he was a clown. uh you know they they exited but you know he he put out I was on an email chain he put out today said Ukraine is winning the war now we're not talking somebody who's mentally [ __ ] we're not talking somebody who's had a stroke and lost his brain capability talking somebody who's well educated a sophisticated guy was considered you know uh competent enough to be in charge of a, you know, Forbes 100 company and yet he's completely divorced from reality. So don't assume just because these guys sit in the White House and they got these positions of power that they're smart and they know what they're doing. They are not.

Um, yeah, so that's on that front. Uh Larry, um, we've got the uh JD Vance. I've read his statements. There's more we're going to talk about. Uh obviously today was the last day of the NATO summit as well. We'll talk about that.

There is uh we could show this to Larry if you don't mind. Uh

Stephanie, just on I always anything I find on military equipment moving around. I save it for our discussion. Unusual US Air Force movement kicking off right now. Two KC135s tankers left the UK escorting unidentified aircraft while two more tankers launched from Souda Bay, Crete heading straight towards Turkish airspace. Fighters, bombers or long-range strikes getting fueled up just some military buildup before the strikes.

Um

Well, what time what what time did Trump to Turkey?

Uh

Because because those planes could have been sent to escort his Air Force One. Yeah, definitely. Um, that could have been it for sure. Or could have been for the strikes because there were two the two happened simultaneously, him departing and the strikes kicking off. Um, so we've got the you could remove it, Stephanie. Um, Channel 14 reported about the strikes being imminent. Um, and they said Israeli Channel 14 said the confrontation with Iran is not over, but all these are a bit outdated now because we've seen the strikes by the US. Everyone was talking about whether the US will attack again today and obviously we've seen them attack. Well, Trump said they'll attack and he ended that he ended up not tackling from that one. CENTCOM put out a statement saying more than 20 US Navy warships are patrolling waters across the Middle East as CENTCOM forces continue promoting regional security and stability. Just reading the statement there from CENTCOM. Trump said, "We will strike Iran hard tonight." Then he started making threats. So the threats have escalated as well. He said, "In one day, we can destroy every bridge in Iran. Their power generation stations where they produce electricity. We will destroy them if necessary. They have water desalination plants. We will destroy them if necessary." Obviously, as as most people know now from our audience that the desalination plants in Iran are not existential for them. They've got a lot of freshwater access, but obviously for the Gulf, it is pretty existential. So, it's uh not the smartest threat to make. And then he says, "We might seize the Iranian island of Kharg." So he's going back to the same threats we saw during the war during the full-blown uh kinetic war. So we are seeing very similar threats being made again. Some people are speculating this.

Go ahead. Let me let me remind you of the language of the MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this memorandum declare the immediate permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including in Lebanon and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other. US clearly has violated that now at least three times and four times now and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. Trump right there violated boom boom boom boom. So, the United States has violated paragraph 1, paragraph 10, paragraph 11, parag, you know, they violated the whole the entirety of this MOU. And I guess that's why Trump said it's dead because the United States has not the United States is not a country of its word. You supposedly give your word. You put your name to something and you're supposed to fulfill it. Note that Iran did not initiate uh any attack on the United States. It was always in response to the US attack and moreover its ally Hezbollah has not initiated attacks against Hezbollah against Israel.

Another thing Trump said um about the deal just another statement on the war restarting. "We may just do it without a deal. It's easier. These people lie and cheat." Houthi also canceled his flight. He had a trip planned for Israel. He canceled that earlier today. And there is some statements about so not many people are talking about this. There are statements where he's showing indications that he does not want war to restart. He says first there's one statement where he says this is not a war. It's the denuclearization of Iran. But a more relevant statement would be this one. Quote, "I don't think the war in Iran will start again. When people some people are arguing the wars already restarted but he says this I don't think the war in Iran will start again. When they hit we hit 10 times harder. We may hit them tonight. Anything that's going to happen it's going to happen very fast. We are not looking for long term." Um and then he also makes a threat of putting the blockade putting up the blockade again. He says he starts attacking the Iranians calls them liars cheats sick people. He says there's something wrong with the Iranians. So you're not the

So hey, one of

So one of my friends sent me this tweet from X from some guy named Mario Nall. Oh, Nefal. Yeah, Mario and it was in Philip Pil Pilkington. And what you tweeted was a number that should never move like a stock just jumped $10 in a single day and it may prove the oil market is broken.

Yeah, that's from the today. The crack spread. So that's the crack spread, the one we're talking we're talking about earlier. So there is the the the crack spread, which is the the price in which the the refined oil is being sold at is very very high. And there's two reasons why it's so high. It's a you know, record numbers. I'm using the word loosely record but it's very high numbers. So there are two reasons why the refined oil the refined crude oil is being sold at such high numbers. Could be either price gouging by the refineries, which Philip doesn't think is the case, or the cost that the refineries are paying is much higher than the spot price, the price on the markets, the dated crude, the date what is it, dated crude I think it's called um so these are the two possibilities. And then today what we saw is that we saw the the the spread spike. It spiked as soon as the future prices spike spike. Now, if it was price gouging, the price shouldn't spike because they do have maneuverability. So, the price would not rise as quickly as the the the spot prices rises, but it did spike as well, which shows that their actual cost is really high. And based on his calculation, and this is not something could be provable, I'm using his words here, but for him, he's extremely convinced. And based on his calculations, the price that the refineries are paying for oil right now coming out of the Strait of Hormuz is $110, $115 a barrel. And he's but his argument is that price of oil has been manipulated since COVID days and he talks about how it's the manipulation through algorithmic trading etc. It's pretty he said Mario, this is the if this is true, this would be the biggest manipulation campaign of any asset class in history. Um, and it's something like speaking to him. It's like if you've seen the movie The Big Short, I actually wanted to say this to him. If you see the movie The Big Short, it was literally speaking to Michael Bur, just a more emotional version of Michael Bur where he's just so convinced with something and he's just quadrupling down on it and he's really upset at how reality is not the the prices are not catching up to what he sees as the reality. Michael Bur saw he he said this asset this um this um this this asset should be collapsing in price because the real estate market is crashing but it's not happening. If anything the asset class is going up, the CFDs or whatever instrument Michael Bur was talking about was going opposite to how it should be. That instrument is represented as an instrument of a derivative of the real estate market. So if the real estate market is dropping in price as in '08, then that derivative should also drop in price. But what's happening is the real estate prices are dropping, but the derivative is going up in value. And he's just losing his mind like it just doesn't make sense. There's something weird going on. And talking to Philip today in my interview earlier today was kind of reminded me of that scene because he's like looking at the price of the the spot price in the oil futures, it's like it just doesn't make sense. It does not it does it does not have any relation to reality, supply and demand. 2 plus three equals fish. That was that was a quote. That's a Remember that quote from the movie?

No, it didn't. This from the big short as well.

Oh, yeah. The the two young guys that were working with Brad Pitt because one at one point they got Brad Pitt on the phone. They said, "This doesn't make sense." and then and and the the taller one of the one of the actors says this is like two plus three equals fish. So, all I will tell you is my a friend of mine who's an oil trader uh sent me that clip and was just saying he referring to Pilkington is dead on.

Crack. He he went on to say crack spreads crack spreads are saying [ __ ] you to the paper market.

Exactly. That's exactly what Pilkington was telling me. And uh and the audience loves them. He whenever I have him on the people really enjoy it because he's really good at explaining it as well and he gets pretty emotional so people enjoy it but he's um he's a smart guy.

Yeah. I mean

And I had someone else uh reflect similar sentiment as well and other economists as well.

Now there's a counterargument as well. Sorry. Go ahead.

Okay. What's what's the counterargument?

No. So I had so there's other economists that tell me the reason they believe spot prices are so low is because uh demand is demand destruction. So another economist I was speaking to a couple of days ago he says the oil prices are low because the economy the global economy is doing a lot worse than people realize and there's demand demand destruction across the West and across China. There's also the explanation that a lot of these factories and refineries bought so much oil because there was that military buildup by the US before the war started. So they purchased so much oil for the for the production for the refining etc. um that that led to that led to an oversupply of oil. So they've got a lot of oil. They were prepared for this war. So and then if you add that with the drop in demand globally that's leading to the lower prices. So it's like another explanation that's being given.

They're not mutually exclusive.

Yeah. You know, sure. Because the reality is the United States imported X amount of of the sour crude and now it's importing X minus Y amount. And it and it has no way to make up that difference, that delta between X, what was what they need, and then what they've actually been able to import. And up up until well until maybe this Saturday or Sunday or next Monday, they've been able to make up that gap by drawing on the strategic petroleum reserve. That goes away. Then all of a sudden, you're left with what you have on hand. That's when the problem starts. It's just like, you know, I and I was guilty of this at the start of the war. I I guess in my mind I envisioned that when they shut the Strait of Hormuz, it's like you got a running tap of water and you just turn it off and stop. But the reality was even if you shut off the handle, it's still going to the the tap was still running in terms of there were oil tankers on the high seas that had not yet delivered their product. So people people that were anticipating receiving a shipment in the next 40 days, they were good. They they had what what they needed for those 40 days. But when when that when those last ships arrived, which was, you know, around April 8th, April 7th, that's when the United States sought the ceasefire with Iran. Coincidence? I don't think so. Yeah. And then because it was in March, you remember it was announced on March 11th by Energy Secretary Wright that the US was going to start drawing down the petrole the strategic petroleum reserve at 1.4 million barrels per day. And it wasn't just drawing out generic oil. They're drawing out the sour oil in order to produce diesel and aviation fuel. But so but this is why I I'm trying to figure out, you know, goes back to my question I asked earlier um that you chuckled at about, you know, them thinking logically because you've just talked about how the the the the issues with the oil reserves and how much how many weeks left is the reason that Trump was so keen for a ceasefire and signed an MOU that's so bad for the US.

So they know the importance of oil prices in the markets. They're always watching it and that is dictating a lot of their decisions.

Some some not all.

Don't assume that they all know and don't assume that Trump knows that or remembers it. Now does Secretary of Energy Wright know it? Probably. He should. And are there other people in the administration who perhaps but they're not the ones making the decision. And Trump decided appearing tough with Iran was more important than protecting the oil.

My um if I had to guess I'd my belief right now based on the limited information we have and by the way the secretary of of uh um energy right is is with Trump and he was I think on the call when Trump decided on the strikes. If I had to guess, I think those strikes is Trump betting that Iran would not escalate into a full-blown war. That the MOU is not dead. And he's trying his best to have Iran concede on their control of the Strait of Hormuz, which we know is what the US has been trying for weeks. Um, and this is what the US is doing. Now, obviously, it could backfire. So, either one option is could work and the Iranians eventually concede for whatever reason. Another re another one is it just doesn't work. The Iranians don't concede. A third option is it actually backfires and Iran is like, you know what, screw this and we're going to fight and we're going to walk away from the MOU. So, this is why I think this gamble is a very dangerous gamble. But my guess would be Trump is Trump is just trying to get a concession on the Strait of Hormuz as one of the main sticking points. We've talked about it for weeks. One of the main sticking points in the uh in the MOU to try to get Iran to concede on controlling the Strait of Hormuz was by giving them the carrot which is hey we'll lift we'll we'll remove a lot of the sanctions unfreeze the assets as per the report in access I think and the stick where we'll just keep bombing you if you try to control the Strait of Hormuz. I'm guessing that's their strategy.

Not going to work. It's a good one. I think it's a good one.

Yeah, not gonna not going to work. Iran's not going to relinquish control of the strait. They continue. You know, I think what Iran's going to do right now, it looks like that ships of friendly countries, countries that are aligned with Iran, they get to go through no problem. And Iran continues to abide by the MOU of not charging tolls yet. But, uh, come day 60, the tolls are going to go into effect. By the way, there's um in the uh Golestan province, there's reports of um some people are saying it's a it's strike in a railway, but more reports are coming out. Show the images, please. Uh Stephanie, so this is a railway bridge along the Gorgan Railway near the Aklan in Iran's Golestan province. Let me see where that is on the map. But this if you could show in the meantime the destruction. um that's being shown because that's that's infrastructure. So that'll be destroying a railway line. Now um initial people were reporting that this could have been one of the strikes by the US but that's would be pretty surprising that's all the way up north um as in you know in the Golestan region literally near the border with Turkmenistan which would be very bizarre because all reports where the strikes were out down south but according to the reports there seems more like internal saboteurs that could be behind this. There should be some sort of sabotage, internal sabotage of an Iranian railway line. Not sure whether this is by um US or Israeli intelligence or some anti-government forces. No idea who it is. One could just speculate, but this just came out. Now, this one person analyzing it, an Iranian source. The scale of the damage and the province targeted strongly suggests that the US was not behind this attack. It was most likely carried out by local anti-government partisans. So it just came out now so I thought it's worth mentioning. Nothing too

Golestan is southwest of Tehran about about 50

50 75 miles southwest of

Oh okay okay I got it wrong then. Hold on. Golestan I thought it was on the Turkmenistan border. No no it's not. It's on the Turkmenistan border. It's just up north northeast. Um unless I got mine wrong. The Golestan province. Uh just Golestan province. Okay.

Yeah. Golestan G O the city city of Golestan is southwest of Tehran.

Okay. I'm talking about the uh the uh the uh province. Um yeah, there's more people reporting about the railway attacked is in Aklala Golestan region northeast as part of the Incheh Borun Gorgan railway line that was opened in late 2013 early 2014. It serves as a final link of the new Eurasian land bridge that begins she's that be sorry that begins in Xi'an, eastern China and ends in the Tehran region. The bridge was struck with three projectiles or could be a drone attack.

Interesting. Um anyway, so we've got all the statements now. Let's go to something a bit so you could remove it please. Uh Stephanie um let's go to the um something else. So there was the um meeting between uh Trump and Assad. So he talks about unifying the country etc. Uh are you going to remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list? He said, "I think I will." Yeah. And then he actioned it. So Syria is being removed. Those reports came in. There it is. They took it um okay but there's a report that he's already actioned. He's already requested for Syria to be removed from the state sponsor of terrorism uh list. So that just came out as well. And then obviously he said on the plane that he hinted

That Ashar accepted to help him deal withah. Now it's a broad statement. Someone told me on my show that Al made a statement a few weeks ago that he will help human through humanitarian means in the issue. Um, so I think this is going to be a really important indicator what Alshara does because if we obviously see Al Shar involved in any way militarily with the Hisbalah situation, it's a catastrophe for Syria, catastrophe for Lebanon, catastrophe for the region. So fingers crossed that this is not going to happen. And for me it will just indicate that Alshara is a is a 100% proxy of the US and and andor Turkey because otherwise it makes no sense from a pragmatic perspective for Alshara to attack his suicide mission when he has Israel down south to deal with.

Well, and apart from if they really are the puppet of Turkey, Turkey wants to help out Israel now.

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Well, it depends what what deal. Maybe that's involved in the. Someone was speculating on the show a couple days ago that the F-35 deal between the US and and Turkey could be, you know, one of the things that Turkey does for the US in return is get al Sharat to attack his. Like all this political chess happening. I really hope hope it's not the case.

But you know what? You've got a better chance of me giving you a golden unicorn than Turkey does of ever seeing an F-35 jet on its tarmac that it owns.

Ain't going to happen.

What? You know.

Is that because how long it'll take him to produce it as you said earlier or because of the S400s?

Okay. Well, how long? Well, first how long it takes to produce it. Second, Congress is going to block it.

Yeah. True.

Yeah. Which is this is this is this is another illustration of why Israel wants to get embedded in the Department of Defense budget, you know, section 224 24 uh as opposed to being part of this procurement process where now Turkey, even though Trump wants to do something, Turkey can the Congress can tell Turkey, "Hell no, you're not going to get that."

Um, so another piece of news. You see, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned regional countries, don't allow your territory to be used by US for strikes on Iran. This is more like so, so that's the statement. This is it. So they're telling the Gulf, don't allow your bases to be used to strike us. Um, I'm guessing this is t this is aimed at Qatar, the Emirates, and Saudi because obviously they keep striking Bahrain and Kuwait. Um, you got Israel's Iran's central military command, the Katimania, said any support for the US military's aggression against the sovereignty and territory of Iran is a legitimate target for the Iranian armed forces. So, multiple threats um um against the Gulf and Oman put out a statement condemning the attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. So, obviously condemning the Iranian attack on Bahrain and Kuwait, but they didn't they didn't name Iran.

Um, there's some OENT uh links. Can you show these please Stephanie? I'll be sending to you on what was struck yesterday. Um, and probably tomorrow we'll see what was struck more information what was struck today. But if you can show what the link I've just sent you now and I'll I'll go through them. So the first link, it shows um the US military appears to have struck the same communications tower at Iran's IRGC Navy base in Sir for the third time in a month. We've looked at this before. I've seen the image of this tower many times before. So this is based on um the NASA fire map that confirmed it. So this is the first one. This is the tower. You can open up the image. The second one, another site and they put the coordinates just north of Bandaras airport appears to have been targeted in US strikes. Can you go to the second link? The 2025 GE satellite image shows the location was used as an S200 SAM site, surface air missile site and hosted multiple surveillance radar. And then the third one, NASA fire map confirms active fire detected at coordinates inside Bandrobart fishing port. This is where we saw those small boats that were struck.

Um, what the Iranian attack on the US, we know that the uh they launched missiles and drones targeting key missile missile um military facilities, US military facilities facilities in Salman port um in Bahrain and the Ali al-Salam air base in Kuwait. And they also claimed to shoot down an MQ9 drone yesterday and they said they shot one down. They shot one today as well.

Um, Trump said they that that another reason not to take the 111 missile claim. Uh, serious. You can remove the image, Stephanie. Not to take it seriously, Larry. He literally said 111 missiles shot by the Islamic Republic of Japan and the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. It's hard to take it seriously.

Well, well, it's just it's a reminder his, you know, uh he's, you know, speaking and not listening to what he's saying.

Now, let me read out the statement uh for you, Larry. They asked for a timeout. They wanted to go to the funeral and I said, "Give it to them." And they started shooting missiles. I mean, it was a crazy thing. Now, we did kill him. So, I guess you have to look at it that way. Talking about Ayatam. They also asked that we not kill them during the funeral. They were worried we'd kill them during the funeral. I mean, if you can believe it. What a crazy idea. Do you ever think I'd be doing this for a living? Maybe. Maybe Pete Hex, but this wasn't supposed to be for me. Pete loved this stuff from day one. [ __ ] I haven't seen this comment. But they said to us, quote, "Please don't kill us during the funeral. We didn't do anything. In fact, we made it safe for them, actually." And what happens? They attacked three ships. So that's Trump's statement.

Right.

Yeah. You know.

With him. No. Hell no. You know, he's he's you know, he's refusing to take responsibility for the fact that he ordered the breaking of theou. He's violated theou. I I think theou is dead. I think Iran would be crazy to keep it in place without any without any tangible upfront sacrifice, commitment, reversal by the United States. And I don't see Trump doing that.

Um, one last piece of news, Larry. He did say something that again I'll take with a massive massive grain of salt. He says he says that BB agreed to withdraw. Let agreed to withdraw from Lebanon. Quote, "Well, I talked to BB about that." He was asked about the Israeli military drawing withdrawing from southern Lebanon. He says, "Well, I talked to BB about that. Yeah, I think they're going to. I think they want to. I think it's a question. I don't think it's a question of me. I think it's a question if they want to. They're getting along with Lebanon. They're signing deals with Lebanon. First time ever." Marco, talk about that. Marco Rubio, if you would. And then Marco just says nothing significant about it. But um Trump does say that um so Rubio just says we have a deal with Lebanon, etc. But Trump is saying that he believes Israel wants to withdraw from Lebanon, but he says it loosely. He just throws words around all the time. But um yeah, that's uh that's the last piece of news. The rest of it is all about Ukraine, which I'm sure we'll talk about tomorrow. There's a lot on that front, the NATO summit, a lot of talk on Ukraine. Very significant developments. If that striking of Iran did not did not happen, there'd be breaking major breaking news in the developments and the statements made about Ukraine, which uh I've got them all saved for our discussion tomorrow.

All right, my friend.

All right, Larry. Good chat. Thank you.

Way to plow the field. See you.

Just I got. Man, the amount of [ __ ] you have to wade through. I'm going to get you a pair of hip waiters.

Yeah, it's a lot.

All right.

Have a good night. Bye.

You, too.

All right, guys. Uh, this is it for today. I'll probably be live again as soon as the Iranian retaliation against the US begins, most likely against Bahrain and Kuwait. Who knows? It could be more significant. They could target where I am, the Emirates. They could target other regions. um you know my stance on all this and and uh this is mainly based I haven't had time to have any calls or talk to anyone privately but based on the discussions I've had with the guests today um and and based what I know about where things stand I was actually, you know, disclaimer, I was actually meant to go to the NATO summit. There's going to be interviews I was meant to do. Um, there's going to be meetings I was going to do. You know, probably would have given me a better idea of what's happening behind the scenes. I would have would have been able to meet people within the Trump administration as well. Um, obviously I couldn't do it because of these strikes, otherwise I wouldn't be able to do the live coverage for you guys. Um, and I was contemplating to to um I could be traveling in next couple of days for a meeting and an interview regarding these things. And I think you'll probably see that interview soon and you'll understand um why it would have given me better insight. But um from what I'm seeing right now um it does I'm I'm still not that worried. I do I do still believe the war is over. Obviously, we're going to see back and forth. This is pretty pretty standard when there's no actual peace deal, when there's a looseou with many unresolved issues in there. I am worried this could escalate and unravel and get out of control. But from the indications we're seeing so far, I I am in the belief that Trump does not want this to to escalate, does not want to see full-blown war because he cannot afford it. The munition depletion, the price of oil could skyrocket again. uh politically would be very damaging, economically would be very damaging. Um, my biggest worry though is he would miscalculate the Iranian response and the Iranian response would no longer be proportional. I think it would be. I think they've been very calculated, very strategic in their responses. Um, and I think they will continue being so. But I do worry that if this continues, it will get out of control. I did not expect things to get that bad. I wouldn't be surprised if this happens again. It's impossible to know how negotiations go. Um, but I definitely don't think we'll see a full-blown war again. You know, I've been saying this, as you guys know, since the um threats by Trump about wiping out a civilization, and I stand by that, that Trump does want to walk away. And hopefully, we'll see things calm and we'll go back to the negotiating table and um we can move on and focus on Ukraine because on that front, it's uh it's not looking good. Um, hope you enjoyed the coverage, guys, and I'll see you again tonight if Iran starts their attack. Otherwise, I'll see you tomorrow. Bye-bye.