Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for dropping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, we had a pretty good week. We saw Bitcoin close back above the bull market support band, which, remember, late in the cycle, we don't really have the luxury of spending a lot of time below it. If you subscribe to the idea of the four-year cycle, that would mean that Bitcoin finds a top within the fourth quarter of this year, right? If you believe in the four-year cycle. And so, we don't really have the same luxury that we had in prior years where Bitcoin fell below the bull market support band, where it basically just spent two months down there. Because if it, if that's what happens, then the, the, the cycle might just run out of time. And so, essentially, we've gotten right back above it only one week later.
Now, this is something we've mentioned before as something to watch out for for Bitcoin. Like, sometimes it'll have these very quick fake-outs where you just get like a single weekly close below the bull market support band and then it goes right back above it. The same thing is often seen in bear markets, but just in reverse. Like, in bear markets, you'll sometimes see, you know, you'll see Bitcoin stay below the bull market support band, and every once in a while, it might pop above it, but again, it, it usually is, is pretty quickly faded, and you don't spend more than a week or two above it. Um, and, and that's actually happened many times throughout, you know, throughout history. In the 2019 sort of intermediate bear market, you can see we popped above it very briefly and then went right back below it.
So, it's a good thing that now Bitcoin is back above its bull market support band. Additionally, it also has been able to stay above its 50-week moving average, right? And remember, the 50-week moving average is important because it, it ultimately, at least historically, it really does define the integrity of the bull market. Whenever Bitcoin goes below the 50-week on two weekly closes, that's usually a good sign that the cycle is over, and that has not yet happened this cycle. We've had some close calls, but it hasn't really led to any actionable things to do because ultimately, Bitcoin just gets right back above the 50-week moving average and it continues on. But you will notice in prior halving years, or in the early part of the midterm year, once you start getting those weekly closes below that level, that's when the cycle's over, right? And so, Bitcoin not only has been able to stay above its 50-week moving average, but now it's actually back above its 20-week moving average. So, we have a little bit of wiggle room. The 50-week moving average now is approximately $13,000, and the 20-week SMA now is at around 114K. So, we closed the week at, let's see, 115.5K. I didn't actually see the weekly close. I was a little surprised it was that high, but 115.5K, whereas a 20-week SMA was at 113.4. So, all in all, it's a pretty good weekly close back above the bull market support band.
And I do know that that Bitcoin dominance started dropping a little bit over the last few days. And my interpretation of this is likely due to the, the Fed meeting is, is going to be the nice narrative for people to talk about because there's obviously some speculation that the Fed could end quantitative tightening as early as this week. We'll see what they do. Um, you know, Powell said they'll likely end it in the next few months, but then you have other bank, you have banks like JP Morgan and some other ones thinking they're going to end it, um, in October. I think another bank like Goldman Sachs, they think it's not going to end until early 2026. So, who really knows how it's going to play out, but that might be the best narrative to assign to why dominance is struggling to, to, to make this move. And really, if Bitcoin dominance could get above its own bull market support band, it would actually be a, it would likely be a pretty good thing for Bitcoin because then it means all that liquidity is just flowing back to the king. And usually what happens is when Bitcoin goes back up to new all-time highs, Bitcoin dominance then goes up as Bitcoin tries to go to those all-time highs.
I also wanted to show you guys this, the overall structure of the market, and you can kind of see like where we are. The first highs that were put in back in 2023, you can see that when we took those highs out, they were not retested at all, right? Not, not at all. We didn't come close to retesting them in 2024. But the 2024 highs, we actually did come pretty close to testing. Technically speaking, we didn't completely get back to where the, to where those highs were, but we got pretty close in the current drawdown that we were, that we just experienced. You can see that Bitcoin actually wicked below, right? You can say, you can see the wicked below. So, in the first one, Bitcoin, it was earlier in the bull market. Bitcoin was very strong, and it came nowhere close to testing these highs. The next time, we got pretty close, right? We got pretty close, but not quite there. And then the third time, we actually have wicked below it. So, you can see that as the cycle goes on, you know, Bitcoin is, is retesting some of those highs even more frequently. So, that will likely ultimately be the sign later on, you know, this year, maybe early next year, is once you lose the integrity of one of these support levels, that's kind of the sign that the market structure is changing. And so, perhaps the next level to watch, if we are able to put in new all-time highs, is going to be, you know, Bitcoin, Bitcoin's ability, you know, what it, what does it do at around 125K, you know, like if Bitcoin is able to run back up and put a new all-time highs, then when it gets a correction, that's what you're going to want to look for. And when you get weekly closes below that and/or the 50-week, uh, it would, it would likely be a sign the market's turning. But again, we're not there yet. Um, so far, we're seeing what we want to see. Bitcoin's back above the 20-week SMA. I know Bitcoin dominance is down the last few days, but overall, it has been trending higher, even though it doesn't feel like it, right? It really hasn't felt like it, but when you look at it, I mean, you can see that basically in, in early September, you know, about a month and a half ago, Bitcoin dominance was at 57%, and now it's at 59%. Right? So, it's moving in the right direction. It's just a very, very slow progression. And you can see these weekly closes by dominance continue to slowly inch higher. You have 59.48, 59.57, 59.64. This is one of those things, and I've seen it before. Usually what happens is whenever we get past that major milestone, in this case, 60%, the floodgates open, and then dominance shoots up a ton. But it is a grueling process just to get to that point.
So, all in all, I mean, I would say that this past week for Bitcoin was very useful, as we are now back above the bull market support band, right? We're back above it. You could argue that unless you get back below it, this is just a fake-out that might fake everyone out, uh, just before, you know, the end of the cycle. Um, but hopefully, we can see Bitcoin recover here and, and get moving. I mean, seasonality, I mean, honestly, just to a large extent, seasonality in the S&P has been largely thrown out the window for the last few months, but, you know, that season, that, that negative seasonality should come to an end relatively soon, maybe within the next like couple of weeks or so. Um, but again, I mean, I, I don't even think you could argue that the S&P has been following that anyways, because while there was a correction by the S&P, you know, it was only 2 to 3%. And maybe that'll change, but it hasn't really changed yet. And so, let's see what Bitcoin can do here and, and its ability to hold above these levels. I think just trading the market that you have is the way to go, right? And, and I've given pretty clear levels to watch, right? That 50-week moving average, weekly closes below that, uh, weekly closes below these prior highs. We've, we covered that in extensive detail back in early 2025. And so, you know, we know the levels to watch. Um, and until they're broken, hopefully, we can keep moving up.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.