Transcription
So, we are a few hours before the Fed's decision on a potential rate cut. So, I say potential even though it is now a done deal that we will go from 4.25% to 4%. Uh, we are around 99% probability. There will be no volatility movement linked to that. It will probably be linked to the FOMC press conference or the FOMC statement, particularly the decision on a potential halt to QT. I remind you, QT is the act of withdrawing liquidity from financial markets. I imagine that if you are watching my video, you have already heard about it from other influencers and so on, but here, I still have something that made me pause. Uh, I watched Iil's video a few hours ago, which he released, and he says something interesting. He says this, listen, perhaps if you wish, but it's my view. I think the crypto market will go even higher, even if it's not at all the trend to say that right now. And that's it. And that intrigued me because he repeated it several times in the video, saying that he thinks it will go higher but that it's not at all the trend to say that. So, I have a slightly opposite view because I say that well, we are probably in a pre-bullish movement. So, I think, like him, as he talks about it in this video, that the macroeconomy remains good and so on, but that we have things that are very good for the future. And conversely, what I say is that even if we have very good things in the future in the short term, we have signs that invite us to be cautious. So, if you follow me, you can see in my previous videos and so on what I'm proposing, and particularly the movements of the whales which make me say, beware, danger. There are many other indicators, of course, but there is this one in particular. And so, I asked myself, is what he says really the trend to say that we are bullish or bearish in the markets? Because he seems to say that the trend is rather to be bearish. At best, my short-term view. I remind you that I am bullish in the short term. So, that is to say, I think we will go lower than current prices in the short term, that is to say, in the next few hours and the next few days to come. But I think, obviously, like many others, I'm not very original on this, that the market will go much higher over a horizon of years and months as well. I think that $126,000 is not our cycle top. However, I am an investor, I am not a long-term holder. That is to say, what I seek to do is to buy low positions here and sell them as high as possible. But what I do is I buy here, I sell there, I buy back here, I sell there, I buy back here. Okay? I don't aim to buy here and let my portfolio sit for years. Okay? I have active management. So, everything is valid. Many people do passive management via ETFs and so on. My view is active management. I think that we are capable of avoiding certain movements, certain movements that can be more or less predictable. This one, for example, was quite predictable, the -20% movement. So, I estimate that it is possible to exit around these levels and re-enter a bit lower to take advantage of a larger rise. So, that is my view. It's up to many people to give it interest or not. But that is my view. You have my track record, by the way, which is public in the link where I share my investment circle. I have an entire section where I share my track record, which I update, to explain to you precisely each time I have taken positions on YouTube, transparently, whether I was rather wrong or rather right. Well, for now, since February, we are around 82-83% success rate, which is not bad at all. So, here I wanted to ask myself the question of whether it was the trend to be bullish? Whether, as he says, it's the trend to be bearish, or as I say, it's rather the trend to be bullish? Because in the comments, I notice that every time I talk about a bearish movement, I get a lot of critical messages, which I understand is linked to frustration and so on, to the fact that most people don't believe it. Well, indeed, all of this, we will try to look at it and look at it particularly among the main US crypto influencers. So, we have as a main crypto influencer in the US Benjamin Cohen, with 950,000 subscribers. By the way, if you want to help me be as influential as Benjamin Cohen, don't hesitate to subscribe. Many of you watch the videos without subscribing. Well, it's not an obligation, but it supports the channel. There you go. So, here, what I like to do is you will copy-paste the transcription of the video, put it into ChatGPT and try to see what it says. But and therefore, in my prompt, I ask it for a sentiment about his video. Is he rather bullish? Is he rather bearish? And to cite the excerpts from the video that allow us to say if he is rather bullish or rather bearish. Here, ChatGPT gives us a score of 7/10 and indeed, what he defends in his video is that, well, we have a lot of good news. So, he talks about it every time, but the rate cut, what everyone is talking about and so on, but you will notice that, despite everything, the majority of the good news is linked to the long term. And that is quite worrying. Okay? Because when the short-term RSI is positive, when there is inflow into ETFs, when there is inflow from whales and so on, all of that, well, people talk about it and these are short-term indicators that allow us to say that it will go up. However, you see that in current situations where the sky is darkening a bit, most influencers like Benjamin Cohen here will mainly highlight the long-term movements and long-term catalysts. ETFs, Solana, rate cuts, improvement of macroeconomic conditions, and so on, the fact that the S&P 500 is rising, we are rather in a phase of the end of quantitative tightening and so on, but you see that these are always long-term indicators. And on the other hand, what he says, which is a bit contrarian and quite interesting, he warns about the end of QT, he says, be careful because Bitcoin generally topped a few months around the end of QT. So, he talks about it in his video at that moment, towards the end of the video. You see right here, well, here we have in blue, blue-purple, here you have, well, in blue, you have the curve with the Federal Reserve's liquidity injection. So, what we want is the end of QT. You see that, the liquidity reduction procedure, well, you see that this is precisely our QT. And when it stops, it's when this curve becomes flat. Well, you see that it stopped in the past, in 2019. In fact, we had a QT here with a rate cut for a while. And here, at that moment, you see that it corresponded to our 2019 top. And when we had the end of QT, it corresponded precisely to that top in 2019. Then, well, we had to wait for the massive liquidity injection to restart a cycle. So, will that be necessary? Perhaps that's why ChatGPT tells us he's rather at 7/10. Well, I'm warning you, he's the most bearish, okay? The others are the most bullish. And you will see the next ones. There are very interesting things to say, but it's still quite disconcerting that people like that can influence so many people. So, you see, hop, I put here the video of right here, hop, from Altcoin Daily with 1.65 million subscribers. So, it's not always quality that pays. I say that because, well, you see the stance. I'll let you listen to what Altcoin Daily says in his video. Listen to this. You see, so here we are on "Everybody's gonna win." So, everyone is going to win. It's still extremely disturbing that a person with 1.65 million subscribers tells us that it can only go up and everyone will win and so on because the Fed is cutting rates and quantitative easing is coming. So, there is a real lack of understanding of financial markets because indeed, rate cuts and quantitative easing make markets rise over the medium term. However, we are not at all in this kind of scenario for the moment because, well, this remains medium-term. So, if by listening to this video, you think everyone will win thanks to the rate cut and so on, so I'm going all in, you risk being greatly disappointed because we had rate cuts some time ago, there were retracement phases, in fact, after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, there was a drop of nearly 20%. Okay, that seems insignificant to those who weren't there, it might seem trivial to you, but I'm telling you that 20% if it were at current levels, 20% well, that's what we had, for example, as a drop here from the top to the flash crash on October 10th. So, you have to understand that these are powerful movements. In hindsight, and when you take the big picture, you realize that it's not that violent, but you still have to put it into perspective, and it's possible to have these kinds of movements, and that's precisely my added value as someone who analyzes the market. And so, I and my investment circle, the goal through all of this is precisely to anticipate these kinds of movements in order to buy back lower when we think the macro is good but the short term is perhaps not great. Well, we directly have altcoins on which we prepare complete dossiers. So, in the Telegram group, I obviously share all the things. We have private video briefs, we have dedicated analyses on certain altcoins and so on, which allow us to position ourselves best according to the market conditions. So, obviously, when you are an analyst, you proceed with a fog in front of you. Okay? Obviously, I can't tell you what will happen in 6 months. However, what will happen in 1 day, 2 days, 5 days, is much clearer to read. Okay? That doesn't mean it's always crystal clear, but it means it's always clearer to understand what will happen in the short term than what will happen in the long term. So, it's obviously why we will sometimes change our bias because, well, here, you had very, very good conditions and so on, here very, very good. Then it started to darken around the top, I made a video on October 6th or 7th, I think, just before, when we were around $123,000, to explain that there were signs that suggested we were going to drop. Obviously, I didn't expect the flash crash at all, which brought us very low on altcoins and so on, but it was a warning. And the problem is that since that flash crash, the signals have been darkening. And in fact, the fog that is dissipating in front of us is starting to show us that there might be a cliff ahead. So, obviously, I adapt my positions throughout this price action and so on. As the price evolves, well, I obviously adapt my portfolio. That's the very principle of risk management. So, we will continue with the third influencer. So, you saw, here we are with the bullish of the bullish. Almost the entire video is about that. So, there is something that made me smile here. So, here, between 547 and 615. We will look at it together because we have an insight that he apparently didn't have. But well, Grégory Raymond, whom we know, from our side, well, I don't know if you know him, but he's quite well-known in the French crypto sphere, who shared something, but it was absolutely not a proposal. So, there you go, France is planning to buy 420,000 Bitcoin, which is 2% of the supply. Now, when you know a little bit, so if you are French and like me, well, you know that this is something that will not happen, but certainly not anytime soon. The purchase of 4,200 Bitcoin by the French state is something that is extremely, extremely unlikely, and even in the next 15 years, I think I am taking absolutely no risk in saying that they will not buy Bitcoin to put it in their treasury, that's almost certain. So, it's very funny to see that the Americans are justifying a potential adoption and a potential bullish movement by using such a weak argument as this one, which is that France will buy 420,000 Bitcoin. Frankly, it's indecent to think that, and it's really indecent to relay such news in a YouTube video that will be seen by tens of thousands of people. So, well, that made me smile. We will move on to the next one. And the next influencer, we have him right here. Hop! 9/10 as well, and he's right here. It's L'Arc Davis. So, L'Arc Davis with 6400 subscribers, who, again, tells us things about the long term. That's what I reproach most influencers for now: every time we find ourselves in situations where the short term becomes more complicated, and factually the short term becomes more complicated, there's no problem saying that. I mean, we are in a ranging phase that has been going on for a long time. We see Bitcoin falling on trendlines, making many traps, and so on. So, obviously, it's much harder to read and much harder to be bullish. We have many indicators, and I invite you to watch my video from yesterday, for example, in which I talk about it, or rather from Monday, I mean, in which I talk about it. But obviously, here, this leads us to caution, and here, all the arguments that are put forward are the same. This time, it's different for the 4-year cycle. Well, I don't like that much already. Here, the M2, the global money supply, keeps increasing. Yes, certainly, but the global money supply is not what drives short-term movements, far from it. We have had very sharp bearish movements during which M2 was increasing. So, unfortunately, it's probably very good and it's very good for the long term, but it's not what will prevent your positions from taking a -20% or -30% in the coming weeks. Here, rate cuts, as always, an S&P at ATH. Well, that's surprising because I find that it's rather a bearish factor when we look at the S&P 500. Well, I have it right here, without completely deviating, while we still have the famous news of the rate cut that hasn't arrived yet. So, either they know something we don't, which is possible, and in that case, it will be something positive for the market. But here, there is something disconcerting: you see these large gaps in the price chart here. If I show them to you right here, well, this is quite disconcerting. But when we go to the Nasdaq here, it's even more disconcerting because we have gaps, 1, 2, 3, 4, we have four side by side. Well, you see that usually, we come back to fill the gaps. So, when we have a big bullish phase, we come back to them before bouncing. So, it's possible that we will bounce, and I even think we will bounce, but it's not impossible that we will do this. Okay? And that, well, it represents a drop of around -4% on the Nasdaq. -4% on the Nasdaq means -10% on Bitcoin, and that means -25% on altcoins on average. So, this is not investment advice or anything like that, it's a probable scenario. Okay? Here, we see that gaps are usually filled. You see that when we move up strongly, on a day or a weekend between two trading sessions here, well, you see that we often come back to work this area before moving off again. This happens on the way up, it happens on the way down. Okay? You see here, we had a large bearish gap, we came back to work it in this way. So, I don't really find it very positive to see these gaps forming and an S&P rising so sharply. As The Crypto Trone says, whom I like by the way, well, obviously, he's used to it, like many of us, to see that the market generally, when it takes liquidity just before a major macroeconomic event, it's generally a trap before the reversal on a famous "sell the news." So, "buy the rumor, sell the news" is something quite well-known. So, well, here, he's very bullish again, but very bullish long-term. Unfortunately, that's not what tells us that we need to be vigilant in the short term. And the next one, again, so this is him, it's Crypto Cryptosaurus, who shares here, right here. So, he's rather 7/10. So, in fact, he says that it's mixed and so on, but overall, he just says it's strange that it's consolidating when everything is bullish, so it's still strange. But otherwise, he says everything is bullish. October is not over. Just with one or two bullish candles, we could completely catch up for the whole month of October, and we could have a great month of November and so on. Anyway, well, very bullish again. So, you see that the message that Iril was conveying, particularly the fact that it's not the trend to be bullish. Well, I think it's still very much the trend to be bullish. Americans, you see, we'll take the last one, who is here, The Moon Show. So, here, 657,000 subscribers, who is also very present on Twitter, well, on X, sorry. So, he too, when you switch to ChatGPT, you see that he is also extremely bullish. You see, 9/10. So, he dares, he dares everything, frankly, and he doesn't mind saying that we are at support, we had a triangle. Well, the triangle is already a bit strange, but that's okay. Okay, we had a triangle, and so we're going up. We're at support, it's going to bounce. He shows us the diamond structure here. So, here he shows it to us right here, the diamond structure. Well, already, finding a diamond structure, for now, is a bit complicated. We don't have at all, the second part of the diamond doesn't exist yet. We're working a bit randomly. Well, knowing that diamond structures like this are rather phases after bullish phases, they are often distribution phases. So, the conclusion is not really in line with what he's showing. And he, well, there you go, it's 100% bullish, he shows his P&Ls just below, he keeps winning, it's long only, long only, and so on. Well, you see, if you think like me that the crowd is always wrong, or at least often wrong, well, you should still be cautious because you see that Americans are bullish. American retail is ultra bullish. Okay, and this is relayed constantly, constantly, constantly. So, I don't really agree with Iril, even though, by the way, you see that I watched his video because I'm subscribed to his content and I like his content. This is very interesting. But in the long term, it's interesting from an ideological point of view, let's say. But from a technical point of view, what should you do with your portfolio? Well, unfortunately, this kind of video doesn't help us. Well, it's not the goal, so we won't reproach him for it. However, I disagree with the fact that it's the trend to be bearish. For me, it is, of course, the trend to be bullish, and people who are bearish in this market are very rare. If you want me to explain why, there are things in the business model of us YouTubers that lead us not to display our bearish positions, and well, I could possibly tell you about it if you wish, but it's something that is unfortunately well-known in this world. There you go, thank you. I hope you enjoyed this content. If so, please let us know, and well, if you wish, we still have our investment circle available via the links in the description, which allows you to join us. You can find through this channel the famous private Telegram channel where we share everything, altcoins, my positions as well. I share my portfolio in real-time with whether I am exposed to the market or not, at what percentage, and so on. I share my altcoins, my watchlists, the levels I'm watching on cryptos, and so on. So, don't hesitate to join us. There you go, thank you.