Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today. We're going to talk about Bitcoin, dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
A couple of announcements here. First is that I will be traveling for the next week. So a lot of the videos that you're going to be seeing coming out over the next few days have actually been recorded today, which is March 28th. So if, over the next few days, you see videos and it seems like they're somewhat outdated, if the market continues to move quickly, just know that it's because I've pre-recorded many of them, and they've just been set to release on those days. Now, I don't know if I'm going to be able to make any videos next week; hopefully, I can, but just to keep that in mind. Also, I will be going to the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, and I hope to see a lot of you guys there. I've been, I think, three years in a row now; this will be year number four.
Now, right now, Bitcoin is at 84K, and we just did a video yesterday, back when Bitcoin was around like 87, 88K, noticing that we had a death cross coming up and also noticing that a lot of times Bitcoin sells off before the death cross—right, you know, sometime before it—and then, as the death cross actually arrives, then you often get a counter-trend rally. The reason I mentioned it yesterday was because it's one of those things where, when the death cross actually occurs and you see the headlines, often times, you know, you get, you get sort of a counter-trend rally on the other side of that, rather than what people are, are, are more so thinking. Um, so that move, you know, this recent move that we got—Bitcoin dropped not a lot; I mean, it just dropped like 3%, from 87 to 84K—this is actually still in line with what we've seen previously with some of these death crosses. Right, there was a death cross right here, and about a week beforehand it just sold off into it, and then, as it, you know, as that death cross arrived, it then got that counter-trend rally back up. Okay, same thing happened the year before. Right, you had this death cross right here, and we even talked about that back then. I remember tweeting about it; we said there's likely going to be a sell-off just before it and then a pump once it arrives, and then that's what ultimately happened.
Even if you go back to 2019, which we've also made the comparison with, right, even if you go back there, you can see that Bitcoin sold off—right, whoops—Bitcoin sold off. So the death cross was actually, it was over a little bit, but basically what happened is Bitcoin sold off just ahead of it, and then it rallied as that death cross arrived. It was a counter-trend rally that led to a lower high, but again, it kind of shows you how the mo—the how—how the market can operate, right? And, and what you'll notice back over here is that Bitcoin originally sort of was up in this range, and then it broke down and then got rejected by that 200-day moving average, which, if you look at it today, you know, it's a little bit different because this time it's, it's been able to get above the 200-day SMA, but you know, there are some similarities between the 2019 move and what we're seeing right there with that sort of uncharacteristic breakdown in terms of, of, um, what Bitcoin normally, you know, was able to do. And it had been at 2x one-year ROI for about a year and a half, and now it's finally broken off of that trend. Because if you go back a year ago, to March 2025 or March 2024, Bitcoin was at not that much lower than the current price. Right, I mean, it was at like 73K or so, um, and now Bitcoin is at 84K, so it actually hasn't really made a whole lot of progress in the last year if you just measure it from, you know, from that extreme to the current extreme.
There are a few important dates coming up that I'd like you to have in mind because I might not be able to make videos in a timely manner when they actually occur, and so I'm just going to put them out now. Um, the first one is that we're going to be getting some macro data. So on the ITC website, we have a macro dashboard that basically just lets you know, uh, when we got some, you know, pretty major events coming up, and I'm going to just switch this over to things that update—no, you know, not daily updates, but just weekly, monthly, quarterly, or yearly—and you can see that next week we're going to be getting, um, you know, all the labor market data, but really the most important one will be this one right over here, um, the unemployment rate. All right, so when the unemployment rate comes in, that will be an interesting one to look at. Now that is going to be on April 4th. Okay, so April 4th right here is when the labor market data comes in. April 2nd is theoretically some tariff announcements. Inflation data is April 10th. Okay, so that would be April 10th right here.
Now, I've previously said, right, that it, it made sense to be, you know, sort of assume that the markets would, would get this correction between February OPEX and March OPEX, which it has, but I've also been pretty clear that the correction, given the uncertainty with tariffs and the macro right now, it's always possible for it to, to extend into April. It doesn't always do that; in fact, there's plenty of times when you get these major market lows in March. Even the last two years, we've had major market lows just before a death cross occurs. You could get a low that isn't a yearly low, but sort of a low like 2019, where it, it might get taken out later, but it doesn't mean you're not going to get a counter-trend rally in the meantime. So when I think about, you know, these important dates, and this is why I've said this before, that it's possible for that window of weakness—the main window of weakness between March OPEX and, or sorry, between February OPEX and March OPEX—that's the main area, the window of weakness. If the uncertainty, uh, behind the tariffs continues, which it seems like it, it's continuing, there's just constant back and forth as to what the tariffs are even going to be. Uh, recently, they, they, you know, Trump announced 25% tariffs on, on cars that are imported into the United States, I believe. That uncertainty is what the market does not like.
Now, of course, at the end of the day, price action, uh, leads the narrative, not the other way around, which is why, you know, we've, we've spent a lot of time discussing just simply the idea that there's a, there's a case where Bitcoin's correction extends into mid-April, potentially, before you might even see a counter-trend rally. Now, you could argue that this is a counter-trend rally that it's already had, and technically that's true, but often times when you get sort of like counter-trend rallies into a death cross, the actual rally itself is, is more aggressive, right? Like it's, it's a, it's a swifter move up, right, like that in 2019, or like what you saw back over here, right, a very quick move up. And here, right, I mean, you just got to—I mean, I guess that wasn't as quick, right?—but the market was able to just continue to go higher on the other side of that, of that cross where the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day moving average. So these are all going to be market events that Bitcoin will likely react to in some way, right? You know, the data point will come out; there'll be a very quick move. Usually what happens is people who, who are trading on leverage get wiped out because the market will go up and down very quickly on those days. Um, but I did just want to sort of point those out, and the reason why, you know, I, I've said it could extend into April is just because we've seen that happen before, right? There, like, there are a few times where market corrections, like the one potentially that we're in now, extended into, into April. And there's not many, but if, if you look at the S&P 500, um, you know, you, you'd really have to go back—I mean, one of the ones I just know off the top of my head was 1997, when you had a correction that started in like late February and, um, started right here, late February, which is exactly when this current one started, and then it really didn't bottom until about—what is that?—April 14th, April 14th. So basically, the, the, the Monday after April 11th. And remember, the United States inflation rate is coming out on April 10th. Okay, so that, that's an example, right? Another example where it, it took until April was actually the QQQ back in 2000, right? That's actually another example where it, the, the sort of the bleed extended in April, and that is when it extended into April 12th, right, April 12th of 2000. So that's why I continue to sort of reiterate, and, and even, even in this drop, right, you can see there was an initial drop and then a rally back up and then another drop, and then you got a larger counter-trend rally in terms of percent that ultimately took it way back up here, right, basically back to where this first one was, um, almost. But that's the reason why I say like, you know, it's, it's possible for these corrections to, to extend into, into mid-April. And even if you go—I mean, even if you look at like the S&P 500 and try to take something that we maybe learned back from the 1970s and apply it to Bitcoin, um, where we had left-translated peaks, which is always a possibility, whether we like it or not, um, back then, you know, the market was, was a little bit different, uh, in the terms of the way it reacted, right? It was more or less just choppiness all the way down. Um, but even in that case, you can see that in about, you know, early April it did lead to at least a rally, um, and then it sort of became apparent by May that it wasn't really going anywhere.
So that's why I, I think that whenever the tariff discussion wraps up and, and we get past some of those macro data points that might be somewhat scary, there will likely be a counter-trend rally, um, at that point. You know, the extent at which it goes up will probably help dictate whether, you know, whether the cycle is, you know, sort of evolves into a normal, right, translated cycle or if it, if that's all she wrote, right, and, and we end up having to wait for, for the market structure to repair itself over a longer period of time in order to get a better idea as to whether that next rally would be impressive or not. I think a lot of it just depends on if Bitcoin does drop into early to mid-April, you know, how far down does it go, right? Does it hold support at the, at the prior high, or does it break down to the lower high structure? I've tried to be pretty transparent with you guys about how I'm thinking about this, okay? And you know, a lot of people want me to just come out with my crystal ball and say this is what's going to happen. I think, you know, I don't normally take strong, you know, um, I don't normally, you know, say that like this has to happen. There are a few things where, you know, I talk about like Bitcoin dominance and the devaluation of ETH against Bitcoin and all Bitcoin pairs and all that stuff, but sometimes, you know, I do take sort of a, a more bigger stand for certain, for certain outcomes, like risk off between February OPEX and March OPEX, like that kind of stuff, when it, when it seems like it's trending in that direction, you might as well just, you know, focus on that and, and try to figure out, you know, when it might actually turn around, right? You get on the right side of something; it's okay to ride that until you see evidence for it to actually turn around. And so, as I've said before, right, I mean, is, if, if there is a drop into early to mid-April, I'll be watching, you know, whether it holds at the 2024 high, like the 2017 drop held at the 2016 high right here, or if it goes down to say 63, right, 63K. 73K would be, in my opinion, um, more optimistic for the cycle. 63K, while you would still likely get a bounce off of it, it would probably, it would probably be more pessimistic for the, for the continuation of the cycle. It doesn't mean you won't get a rally; in fact, you probably would get a big counter-trend rally from that level, um, but it would, it would not be as optimistic of a longer-term view.
So, you know, the reason I put these dubious speculation videos out is because, you know, it is just dubious speculation, right? I don't know what's going to happen. Um, you can certainly understand, right, that there are some things the market seems to be somewhat concerned about: inflation, the labor market, and tariffs. Um, it's the uncertainty; I, I think that's a bigger issue. The tariffs themselves, you know, while I don't think they're good, I also wouldn't necessarily say that by themselves that, you know, that's going to always, uh, kill the bull market, but it's like when you couple it with inflation and the labor market, it's leading to a lot more uncertainty, uh, than the market has experienced in, in recent years, and it's been leading to a more sustained sell-off. So I don't know exactly when this death cross is going to occur again; it's hard to say. It depends on price action as well. If it continues the current pace, though, right, if it continues that current pace, you're looking around like April 7th, plus or minus a couple of days, right, April 7th, plus or minus a couple days. And remember, the labor market data is April 4th, right? So the, the unemployment rate—anyways, the unemployment rate's April 4th, and then the death cross will likely be, you know, a few days after that, if not plus or minus a couple days, right? I don't know exactly; it depends on price action between now and then. So a lot of that uncertainty, right? If, if the market like kind of sells off into these events, if it sells off into these events, um, and then you get that death cross and you get a counter-trend rally, the, the strength of that counter-trend rally would likely depend on how deep the current correction goes. Okay, and that's more or less how I'm, you know, trying to navigate this market.
I know a lot of people are asking about altcoins and, and you know, want to know what's going on there, but as I said in the Bitcoin dominance video, I mean, I, I do generally think that all Bitcoin pairs will still continue to bleed; I just think that Bitcoin will outperform altcoins, both to the upside and the downside, right? So when Bitcoin goes up, it should go up more than most alts; when Bitcoin goes down, it'll probably not go down as much as most altcoins. Um, I mean, even if you look at, uh, we have this chart on the website where you can look at, at a heat map—I mean, I don't really make videos on the heat map—uh, but one of the things you can see—maybe not a year, um, maybe like, I don't know, 30 days or something—one of the things you can see is that only 45 are up over the last 30 days; 149 are down. And if you make the reference point the Bitcoin valuation, you can see that, right, only 42 have gone up against Bitcoin during that time, which is why Bitcoin dominance continues to go up. If you look over say the last 200 days, only 30 have gone up against Bitcoin; if you look over the last seven days, 77. And so that, that's kind of the point is that a lot of these alts just continue to underperform the king, and my guess is that that will likely, um, continue.
So the other thing I wanted to at least briefly mention is if you look at the running one-year ROI, the, the current level that it's bouncing at, right, that you're, you're seeing it bounce at is actually around that same level that it got a bounce at here, right, in, in 2019, right, very similar, uh, area that it bounced at. And then the other thing that I wanted to mention—I haven't made a video on this one in a while—the stablecoin supply ratio oscillator, right? This one continues to slowly work its way down, and, and I would look at these prior levels of, of sort of support for that metric as maybe more evidence of, of a future counter-trend rally if it continues to, to go down there. But those are my general views on Bitcoin. I don't want to go too long because, again, the, you know, I'm making this video on, on Friday the 28th; I might release this one sooner, uh, than some of the other videos since this one's more doing more to do with TradingView, um, and, and it talks more about sort of the shorter-term moves rather than more of the macro views. But just consider that those are going to be some major events, and, and Bitcoin will likely react to them. And, uh, that'll wrap it up for the video. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryverse.com. I'll see you guys next time.