Transcription
Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Indeed we do. So more American service members have been killed and wounded. We've got the details of that as we seem to be hurtling back towards all-out war. Uh, Martaza Hussein is also going to join us to take a look at the strikes between Iran and the US and try to glean what we can about the military strategy involved from each. We're also going to do a deep dive into the oil market. How long can it sustain without massive skyrocketing prices? Prices are already going back up. So, we'll take a look at that as well. Friend of the show, Phil Wegman, with a big scoop on some insider trading, alleged scandal between a uh Republican member of Congress and a prominent mega influencer. We've got new details about the psycho ice maniac who killed an immigrant in Maine. Pretty shocking who this guy was and what his ex-wives have to say about him as documented in court records. And Tim Dylan is sounding off on JD Vance. Had to play a few of these clips. Um, they're quite extraordinary. I, of course, watch the whole show, which is definitely worth checking out. By the way, shout out to Tim. Thank you to everybody who's subscribed to the show. Breaking Points.com if you're able to support us. We also have our newsletter. Let's put it up there on the screen. It's totally free if you want to sign up. Breaking.com and of course, you get access there uh to half of our newsletter. Full premium members get, of course, access to the full thing. It's a very useful, useful product. You get links and all that to the show and you get to help support our work. We had a great day on Thursday of Roana and Thomas Massie that were here in studio. Totally enabled again by our prem. So breaking points.com if you're able to support us. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. Listening as a podcast. Please share an episode with a friend. Really helps other people find the show.
But let's go ahead and start, as Crystal said, very sadly, uh, with the deaths announcement of American service members. Let's actually put uh, the first element up here on the screen. Quote, "US teeters on return to all-out war with Iran after more troops were killed." So, the details of this are really tragic. Uh, we now have currently three likely uh, service members who were killed in that attack on a base in Jordan and another who was killed yesterday in Iraq during a detonation of an unexploded Iranian drone. That one appears to have been a very serious accident. uh, while the drone was being decommissioned or, you know, exploded uh, in a controlled way, the debris ended up striking and killing another person, not the person who was doing that. In terms of those three service members, uh, two have been confirmed uh, to have been killed in action. We learned the names of two of them uh, just this morning, a 25-year-old first lieutenant and a 19-year-old private. 19-year-old girl uh, from Texas, which just kills me. I can't continue to talk about that one. The last one uh, is a uh, last one. We don't have their identification yet. Appears to have been rem. They were initially listed as missing. Some remains have been found. So the identification process for that body uh, is now underway.
But what we do know is that the video of the strike, and we can show that one all of you, just demonstrates uh, how, you know, how difficult the United States now finds itself in a position where this is a, you know, Air Force base in the middle of Jordan where previously we've had seen strikes in terms of drones. But look at what that looks like when a ballistic missile slams into the middle of the base and of course kills for likely three service members, but also does a significant amount of damage. A lot of the after-action report that has come out uh, from this strike actually demonstrates the sheer nightmare that we are all living in right now. Uh, it appears that these missiles are being fired directly in a way that, having learned through multiple months now of strikes on US bases, that Iran has actually developed new tactics to be able to penetrate American systems. There's a lot of speculation, obviously not confirmed right now, uh, as to the lock, the low stock of interceptors, which we have hammered home here from the beginning on the show. Uh, nobody knows what the current stockpile is. Somewhere between 50 and 80% of US interceptors are likely already depleted, which means we could be in rationing. And this is what rationing would look like, is that you just simply don't have the ability to hit everything. So it's either or. The Pentagon has not given any details.
And we also know, and this is the element, guys, I sent this morning, is that there have been hundreds of now casualties which have been hidden from the American people. We could put this up from the New York Times uh, which says, "The Pentagon has withheld dozens of US military injuries now in the Iran war." Dozens, actually, just this week. Quote, "Attacks injured dozens of service members, damaged several helicopters," according to several US uh, officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. And that included those strikes that actually killed these multiple service members in this particular strike, as well as across the region. The Pentagon has not released any updates whatsoever on those strikes. They also have reduced the information in terms of the strikes that they are conducting, which demonstrates again that they are very fearful of the amount of information the Iranians have been able to take in and to adapt their tactics. No signs yet that things are abating. Trump previously, in a a Wall Street Journal report about two months ago, had said that Trump is content with the ceasefire strategy as long as no Americans are killed. And now we have four that are killed. Well, you know, three likely, another confirmed. So, four likely deaths, all just in a 24-hour period, which all of this is not looking good right now.
Yeah. And many more. There's uh, you know, indications that in that strike, there are many more serious, serious injuries as well. In that original Washington Post piece that we had up on the screen, they're saying not only are we low on interceptors, we're low on pretty much everything. Um, there were officials that they spoke to, I'll read this portion, speaking on the condition of anonymity, um, cautioned that the expansion of US operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage. "We do not have enough to safely sustain operations." And I don't think the White House is aware of that. Just sit with that for a second. This official within the Trump administration is saying, "We don't have the troops. We don't have the long-range munitions. We certainly don't have the interceptors to continue with this operation, this escalation that we've been pushing forward." And I don't know that the administration, that the White House, Trump knows about that. Um, they go on to say, "Military experts have said that in addition to the toll taken on US equipment and munition stocks, the US is unprepared for possible ground operations inside Iran that Trump last week refused to rule out." So this could be the reason why after a, um, you know, series of of high-level, quite significant strikes, there actually was a reduction. It seemingly, again, based on what we can glean from public information, there was a reduction in the the number of strikes, um, you know, as the weekend progressed. It could be simply due to limitations in what we're able to do at this point. So that is absolutely extraordinary.
And then the other thing I wanted to point out with regard to the the strike on this um, Jordanian base, we'll talk to Ma more about this because he'll have more detail. But Jordan's long been a very close US ally. We send them billions of dollars and they allow us to operate basically freely within their country. They also have a very large um, Palestinian population uh, in, including actually the queen, who is Palestinian Jordanian. And so they have a very sensitive political situation as well, which is why they've always downplayed the presence of US troops on their soil. But very clearly, we've been operating there for a long time. We're not particularly shy about talking about it here. The IRGC put out a statement thanking the Jordanian people for providing the targeting information that enabled these strikes and they thank, in particular, some members of the Jordanian military. So this is an important piece to keep in mind. I don't know whether that's true or not, or whether that's just something they want to project.
But it is important to keep in mind that even though the governments of these nations, these Gulf nations that we're operating out of, or Arab nations in the case of Jordan that we're operating out of, even though the governments may be aligned with the US, the people is a very different story. So, you know, even though they're monarchies and, you know, don't have freedom of democracy in most instances, you still have pressure from people that creates also a very volatile political situation and a lot of exposure for us in the region.
That's almost certainly not true in terms of the military piece, but it's almost certainly true whenever it comes to the population. Actually, we just give you an example. Let's put A2 up here on the screen just to show all of you. This is satellite imagery which was released by Iran, which actually shows many of the strikes across the region. So we have Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. I mean, Bahrain, we have talked a lot over the last several months here on the show about their Shia population, how they had serious domestic uprisings. Actually, a significant part of their population is on the side of Iran, right? And so, of course, it would make complete sense that they probably have, you know, fifth columnists and others who are much more siding with the Iranians than with the United States. Jordan, as you just said, that one is self-explanatory, and that's where many US uh, service members all were just killed within the last 48 hours. Iraq also, major Shia population. You don't have to tell anybody about the US uh, you know, popularity in Iraq, where actually the prime minister in the United States just, uh, president just met a few days ago, and in it, they committed to a removal of US forces eventually from Iraq. Anyone want to tell me why they're even there since after 2003? But, you know, of course, that's the American Empire. And then Kuwait and Qatar. So all of these countries have bases, tens of thou, maybe hundreds of thousands at this point. We really have no idea. That's one thing I also want to emphasize. I just see that we are getting such a tiny little picture of what's actually happening. These Gulf countries have cracked down so hard. We have no clue what's coming out of that region. Like the videos and all of that from the early days of the war. They are not going to allow any of that anymore. You know, we also know the international news agencies and others are under strict censorship regime. A lot of the population, you know, they're all being monitored for what they can and can't put out. But we know here in terms of uh, the US service members that have all been wounded, that all of that was covered up. And it did, you know, the battle damage assessment, others is coming by anonymous leaks, very likely from people in the military who are shocked, who are horrified about what's happening. And we're really, I, I mean, I feel in a sober mood. I think we're on the precipice. I just do not see a way out at this point. Uh, we will talk with Ma about there's a new 10-day ceasefire. I mean, we've just seen it all before at this point. Uh, the strategic logic of it just keeps coming back to the Iranians want exact pain. Their global strategy is one where we punish the US consumer. We'll talk later. Oil uh, so gas is back at $4 a gallon at a national price. Their other strategy is to cause significant chaos and to create costs on the Gulf countries for their alliance with the United States. And, you know, and these service members, in particular, you could say in the beginning, like, oh, you know, they were, they were dra, we, America was dragged into this war by the Israelis. Not entirely true, but, you know, partially true at the very least. This is Trump. Like, this is all just Trump, is it? Israel is not even firing as of right now. These people die. What did these people die for? I know that's an uncomfortable question, but how can, like, this is so entirely on Donald? There's a 19-year-old girl there who is dead because of these strikes. Also, if you, if you look at their occupation, they all work in missile defense and in artillery units. So, what does that tell you about Iranian targeting? So, they know exactly where the specialized units are. Remember when that Space Force casualty was killed as well? So, they're directly have high levels of intelligence and they're creating significant costs here. And for them, they have had orders of magnitude people be killed, but they are living in an existential conflict. Like, one of the clips we'll show people in a little bit is the foreign minister Archi talking about, "Do you know what it's like to sit in a meeting and think you're going to get bombed?" That puts you in a genuine bunker mindset. None of us are there. We can't even tell you why. The polling came out today. The Iran war is the least popular war in the history of polling. In the history of pol. It took six years for Americans to get to this point whenever it came to Vietnam. And even then, there were still some dot deadenders and others. There's nobody 30% or whatever of the country only who is still mainlining Fox News, who still believes a lot of the stuff.
But the problem is, those people in Trump's base are overwhelmingly in favor of it. And so, even though you would look at the national picture and say, "Oh, that it argues in favor of getting out." I mean, the problem for him politically is if he gets out and accepts the surrender, he knows he's politically screwed. If he does something insane, ground incursion, nuclear weapon, God forbid, there's some chance maybe it works out. So, I guess the way he's looking at it is, well, taking some chance, having some possibility that I can turn this thing around is better than the certain humiliation that is entailed in accepting the memo of understanding that's on the table. And by the way, you know, we just sort of assume that what was agreed, the framework that was agreed to before, is going to continue to be on the table. And I don't think that's a safe assumption whatsoever. Because what Trump has effectively done here is proven the hardliners in Iran correct. After they sign this memo of understanding, then the first thing they do is go out and try to establish this other corridor that the US can control in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians said, "Look, we, we knew we couldn't trust these people. See, we can't trust them. You can't negotiate them. You can't work with them. We should have continued the, you know, our own striking, our own bombing campaign so that we could gain more leverage and they have not experienced enough pain." That is the view that is going to be ascended in Iran because of our actions here.
So with that being said, let's go ahead and bring in Martaza Hussein from Drop Site to talk about everything that has transpired so far.
Ma, good to see you.
Good to see you both.
Good to see you, man.
Uh, so your reaction to the events over the weekend, these escalating strikes, the service members who have been killed, where do you think we are at this point?
Well, you know, it's really heartbreaking, actually, because I think we're told many months ago that the war was over, and we're still taking casualties uh, in the region as a result, result of the conflict. I think if the war were to continue, it's only going to get worse from here in terms of casualties and escalation and so forth. Uh, because the phase of the war is now moving to one where the defending party, who's trying to wage a war of attrition, really has the advantage. Uh, the way the Iranians fought the war was effectively in the early stages. They were using their older ballistic missiles to try to drain the missile defenses uh, throughout the region. And, you know, that meant that the US is fighting for a position of advantage because the suspensions were stronger. Those have either been destroyed now or significantly depleted by those attacks. And what you saw in these attacks with the Iranians are using their more advanced missiles, the ones that they were holding in reserve, and they're doing more damage. They're more accurate. Uh, they're hitting farther away from Iran. Uh, they're striking targets with great precision. And that will continue if the war continues on at in this fashion. So I think that uh, the MOU really was a great time for the US to end the war because it was ending in a position while, you know, the deal, the terms were not great for the US, uh, it was ending at a time when Iran's advantages as the power were not really coming to bear. If the war doesn't go on a lot, it's going to be quite a bit more of this, and it's really heartbreaking because I saw today, I think Sagar mentioned that the 19-year-old, the 23-year-old were killed. There's no reason for those people to be in the Middle East dying in a war against Iran. Uh, but if the war does continue, unfortunately, there's going to be a lot more of that. And we'll also see more pressure for a ground campaign because the air campaign itself is not designed to defeat Iran. It's not really capable of doing that. And the way that the war is also fought, uh, the campaign intensity of the air goes down over time. So really February 28th, March 4th, that period, that was the peak intensity, and it only goes down from there. And these destruction of bases is also going to further reduce the effectiveness of the aerial weapon. So there'll be more pressure to take an island to launch some sort of ground campaign, and that will mean more casualties inevitably uh, as the war continues.
Let's put A8 up there on the or say A7. I apologize. Uh, the US actually attacked a nuclear power plant site in Iran. Several missiles hit the uh, hit the power plant. This caused some retaliation from the Iranians who appear to have hit, let's put A6 please on the screen, multiple desalination and power plants in Kuwait. The targeting of civilian infrastructure both from the United States and then in retaliation from Iran kind of fulfills, you know, this escalation trap that we've been worried about, Mas. But does the United States have the military capacity to sit here and take this for even another year? I mean, everything that we've seen so far from the depletion of interceptor stocks in just a matter of 39 days, God only knows what those numbers are right now after these series of strikes currently. I mean, it does seem to create a logic where you literally have to do a ground invasion or buckle in the future, or you will simply have nothing left whenever it comes to firing back at missiles being sent to you.
Well, you know, that's exactly the problem because first of all, the depletion of interceptor stocks and the destruction of air defenses means that the war becomes more dangerous for the US and its allies as it goes on, and we're currently entering that phase at the moment. Uh, but secondly, there will be more pressure because the US can either capitulate or leave the conflict uh, without a deal. I think a deal itself for many reasons we can talk about is probably becoming more unlikely, or or it could escalate to the ground and escalate with trying to invade Iranian coast, try and invade certain islands in Iran and capture them and so forth. But that really doesn't make a lot of sense to me either because first of all, leaving aside the casualties that would take place in that circumstance, that's not clear why that would end the war. If the US takes a couple islands in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will fire ballistic missiles at those islands. Uh, people will be killed in those attacks. Uh, there'll be a question of how to resupply people on the islands, how to keep them there, what they'll be doing while they're there, how to keep them safe and so forth. Those questions won't go away. And that escalation will lead to further escalation because then if you hold the islands, you may need to hold part of the coast to keep the soldiers there safe. And then when you're on the coast, you'll be hit by drones and ground attacks. You'll have to invade further inland. And really, the logic of it is eventually you'll have to invade the country all the way to Tehran to depose the government by ground because that's the only way of even theoretically keeping people making your previous gains sustainable. And that, if you look at the size of Iran, it's a country of 92 million people. It's the size of Western Europe. You would really need a draft to be able to even think about doing that. And even a draft itself would probably not be generate enough brigades to hold the entire country and pacify and so forth. And I don't think anyone in America really wants that. If you mess up, I think you mentioned earlier, the war is the most unpopular war in since polling has been done before a draft, before a crown campaign and so forth, really at the early stages. So it seems politically impossible, but the US and Trump himself has kind of boxed himself into this situation uh, whereby he can either walk away, which I think he still can do, or he can be trapped in the situation of greater and greater escalation, which will mean much more casualties without any guarantee of a victory at the end.
Right. Ma? We got some significant developments I want to get to in just a minute, but um, I wanted to get your sense of what you read into the targets that were chosen, both on the Iranian and the American side. So, um, first let's start with why are the Iranians hitting Jordan so hard at this point, which is a relatively new development here? What do you think is the strategy at play?
Well, you know, there are two things here. Uh, first of all, in the early phases of the war, Iran hit really hard the bases which are closer to Iran, and a lot of those bases have been disabled now, so they can't really be used. They're not deemed safe enough to be used for air campaigns. A lot of the infrastructure there has been destroyed and so forth. And what they also did was they hit a lot of the radars and air missile defenses which were between itself and Jordan. So Jordan is basically the next domino in line. And what the US did was, when the bases closer to Iran became unsafe or destroyed, they moved more of their assets to Jordan. So Jordan became the primary hub, or one of the major, most important hubs for waging the war against Iran. And now it's at the front line, and now it's being hit really hard, and now those bases are going to probably most likely be deemed unsafe or disabled for the fight going forward. And the aircraft will have to move further away. So they'll have to be moved probably to Israel. Israel is further, obviously, from Iran. It's also more defensible from the air because more compact, and the air defense uh, density is is greater around its uh, critical sites. So, you know, I think that's probably the next step. What Iran is doing is trying to disable all the bases in the Middle East which can be used to attack it which are close to it, render them unusable for the war. And if you have to fly from Israel, you'll have to fly, you, there'll be fewer flights, there'll be longer distances and so forth. And the effectiveness of an air campaign fought at a long distance is much, much less than those which are fought, you know, all on Iran's borders. So it'll be from their benefit. And I think that the strikes against Jordan will probably continue until that base is abandoned or not used for active operations, or the Jordanians make some sort of deal with Iran uh, to that end. And I think that's kind of the only way out of the war at this point. If the uh, Arab countries around Iran decide to make deals with Iran to end the war and say they won't use it territory and airspace to be used for attacks against Iran, absent agreements like that in the region, I think that the war will probably continue, and it won't continue in a way which is favorable to anybody.
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