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Bitcoin has a market cap where history will tell you when you get to this level, you're real. Like, you don't have to doubt it anymore. Could we go to 80,000? I guess we could if the stock market falls off. But I don't think the S&P is going to fall up. I think we're at the end of a liquidation of growth stocks and that next year growth will not be a good factor. The narrative is bad right now because the price is bad. If the price is back up, the narrative will be very good.
>> What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we're going to talk about the recent sell-off in asset prices, why no catalyst may actually have you thinking differently about your portfolio, how you can also see maybe where capital is going to rotate next. Jordy shares a bunch of really unique ideas of where he thinks returns are going to come from over the next 12, 14, 16 months, and then lastly, of course, we got to talk about Bitcoin. What's going on with the price? Why is it not performing? Should you be worried? And whether we are actually entering it to a bare market or not. All that and much more this week with Jordy Visser.
All right, Jordy, I thought this week we could start off uh people are very worried about asset prices selling off. We've seen tech stocks sell off. We've seen Bitcoin sell off. Uh and maybe a big difference between April and today. In April, everyone knew what the catalyst was. President of the United States comes out with a science fair uh poster and he says, "Hey, here's all the tariffs we're going to do. People freak out. Empty shelves. Great Depression is coming. World's ending. You know, sell everything. Got it."
>> I don't know if there's really a catalyst that you can point to as to what's driving this selloff in the same way. All right. So, this will be my chance to kind of uh spend at least the beginning part of this talking about >> things that I've known and learned over the years about about trading and about markets. And I think for people I know there's a lot of people who who trade >> um and they don't think about the macro environment. So, normally, like you said, when liberation day is happening, it's easy for people to kind of think about, well, this is happening because of this. I don't believe this is rational. Let me go. That's not what's happening right now.
So, you mentioned a lot of things that are falling. Here's what's not falling. The S&P 500, as of yesterday's close, was down one and a half% for the month, and it was still up 14% for the year. Uh Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan made new all-time highs in the last 6 days. That's not a bare market. So, I think uh I'm going to I'm going to bring a little bit of uh insight to people on what happens this time of year because a lot goes on in October, November, December that I think people that are trading should kind of keep in the back of their mind, take it out every year when they get into it. Um and this leads to a personal recommendation, you know, for everyone, especially in Bitcoin since a lot of the audience is there. uh we get caught in these emotional moments and then six months later if Bitcoin's 120,000 everyone forgets them. So these moments happen. They're part of just our lives and they're part of trading. So the way my father always taught me, hey, if the way you're betting is not making sense, then just sit out a couple races. And because he was handicapping horse races, he said, wait until you get things that you really like. So, if you think something is off at three is off on the board at 20 to1 and you think it should be 5 to one, that's a good spread. If you think something should be 5:1 and it's 7 to1, sit that one out. Like, don't look for a little bit of value, look for big value. And >> the fat pitches that buff it with >> the fat pitch. That's exactly it. And I and I I don't think the panic at the market level is there. But here's what's happening. we've seen since Oracle. So, I want people to go back to the day cuz I was actually at a Robin Hood event the day that Oracle released earnings and it gapped up 30%. One of the largest moves by a big stock ever. May have been it was a 30% gain for a stock that approached that day a trillion dollars in market cap. Since that day, it peaked and it's been going down and now its debt is selling off. CDS of Ford is going up. So, we've hit a new point and this started with Oracle. Then we had the Fed rate cut in September and again a lot of things shifted and I've talked on here about unwind trades that were happening first at the quant level but now it's starting to spread. Retail also got hurt. Now when retail got hurt is when we started to get into October. gold peaked, but more importantly, these power like Ollo and a lot of these names that have no revenue, they started to get hit hard. And a lot of these names, quantum names, uh, nuclear names, they're down 40 to 60%. And these were big call option names, these were big thing. Then you had Palunteer come out. So, you can see kind of the dominoes that are playing out that lead to a rotation.
Now, I wrote a paper this week about Coreweave. There was a great post by uh someone Kai Woo. I don't know if you've ever seen him, but he posted something about how companies that have lots of capex, how they typically do. We're at a weird point in the cycle. So, the S&P is barely off the all-time highs. We have all these companies that have done a tremendous amount of capex. And now with Coreweave, we actually saw a company that had to cut their capex guidance, not for all the bubble reasons, but because we have shortages of physical stuff. And so I believe that we're in a late cycle type trade. Commodities, the Bloomberg commodity index made a three-year high this week. That's not typical in a slow growth period. The market is rotating away from what has worked now for two to three years. And these are companies that to me have made a peak. So growth as a factor has made a peak. And I believe now we're going to be in a period where there are new things that are going to be leadership. The reason I said November is an important time period. October is when mutual fund tax loss selling typically happens. 50% of the S&P 1500, believe it or not, is down for the year. So there was a lot of selling that went on in that that caused some of the disruption. Then you get into November, you've got the bank's end of year. And as traders and someone who worked at a bank, you have no upside in November. So you don't take as much risk. That leads to if people come in to buy call options, you're like, I'm not going to get in a position where I sell too much. So you start widening out your markets. People get trapped. At the same time, buybacks start to slow down because we go in the blackout period and they're really important this time of year. They're starting to kick back in now and they're gradually every week going to get bigger. But you end up with that kind of risk. And then you get into the hedge fund side. If you're someone who's had a good year this year, and I've talked to some of these portfolio managers over the course of the last couple weeks, they don't want to lose the bonus that they have and they're paid on a performance. So if they start losing money when the AI trade and the momentum trade unwinds, they're more likely to sell out of things. So when you put all these factors together and then you add in the fact that the people that have lost for the year are getting stopped out, I believe there's a massive rotation that is going to continue to go on. But we've already done enough damage for these names that are down 40 to 60%. Oracle's already gone down enough. We have Oracle's earnings coming out in 2 weeks. We have Nvidia coming out next week. I think the market will find a way to stabilize. And then once people kind of stop trading and they're like, "Okay, I'm going to wait until the holidays are over. Then the buybacks will start to drift things higher." But I do think for people trading there, there's going to be new sectors that lead and a new story for next year for sure.
Now, when we get towards the end of the year, there's a lot of people who say, well, maybe some fund managers will chase. Some people look at Q4 is normally really good performance. Uh, Bitcoin, I think average return in Q4 going back to like 2015 is like 60%, 59%. Um, there's all these things of like good performance, but then the uh dynamics you're talking about uh may be counter to that. Dan Ies came out uh on Friday morning and he said uh he remains firmly bullish. He believes that this is kind of a short-term panic and there is this sell-off but he sees us rallying hard into the end of the year. Um Eric Balchunis uh pointed out that uh on Thursday and Friday of this week uh there was actually pretty low volume. There was a spike but it wasn't even in the top 20 days from a volume perspective and therefore that usually signals some to type of short-term lived draw down rather than like a full-on panic where you get a really big spike of volume. And so he's like again who knows what'll happen but that that's kind of a bullish sign. And then you've got somebody like Orion Dietrich from Carson Group who points out that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday this year have been fantastic performance. Thursday, Friday has actually all year long been negative and Thursday being the biggest draw down day of the week. When you look at those factors of what I would consider less like single name assets and more kind of structural or trendbased stuff, >> do we rally into the end of the year? Do we go sideways? Are you worried we go lower? Like how how do you start to think about okay, we got six weeks or so left into the end of the year here? Are you bullish, bearish, or or kind of agnostic?
>> So, I'm bullish into the end of the year, but I want you to separate two of the people that you met and just and realize this is why why when I was talking about Ryan Dietrich is talking about the S&P 500, >> correct? >> Dan Ives is talking about the tech sector, >> correct? >> I do not agree that the tech sector is just going to continue to do what it done. I do not agree with that at all. Um I I think we we've got a problem going on. That is the core thing. If if he didn't acknowledge Coreweave, and I haven't read what what Dana said, that was a warning sign uh that led me to writing a paper that at some point multiples matter.
>> Explain a little bit more what is the corewave situation just so people fully understand.
>> So um Coreweave came out with their earnings report and they said they had insatiable demand and that is the part that Dan Ies cares about. So for everyone listening when you're hearing tech at some point tech needs the infrastructure to be built out or it can't grow any faster. And what core said was, "We're cutting our capex because we can't get the power shells from the data center." And what I basically said was at some point capex and capital needs concrete and there's no concrete. And it's metaphorical, but the reality is this is where we've talked about energy, energy, power, power. At some point, the gas turbine situation matters. So everyone who's been long GE VOVA are they going to be fine five years from now? Probably. But what people have to realize with the demand side that is going exponential at some point the commodity stuff is a necessity to make sure that the compute can actually happen. We have plenty of semiconductors. So that was a trade that I was more interested in. And I still think the semiconductors will be fine for next year. Although I'd be more looking for the names that are smaller. What Dan is depending on is that the buildout continues because if the buildout doesn't continue and what core we've said starts to like god forbid we hear the same thing from Nvidia and Oracle the AI trade will continue to unwind and what'll happen is multiple compression the earnings are still going to grow the orders are still there I mean Oracle still has a massive backord but back orders are only good if you can get the earnings and the dollars in the door and that's what I would be worried about for them I want to focus on the AI adopters. So why are banks making new highs? The opposite of capex is expense reduction. I want to be long the companies that are reducing expenses that are now going to benefit from AI. And I want to be involved in the biggest AI theme, which I'm going to do this weekend on my video for about half. I would say this weekend is the one weekend that for traders, if they haven't ever gone to YouTube and watched it, I will cover with charts a lot of the momentum stuff, a lot of the growth stuff, but I will also cover what I believe is going to be the biggest theme for next year, which is pharmaceuticals with AI.
>> Interesting. Explain a little bit more just so people understand. Uh it's like drug discovery, it's drug development, it is something to do once the drug is already out there. How do you see that?
>> So drugs are uh I mean they arguably are the most important thing and the most disruptive thing when you actually get solutions. So I I want people to go back to COVID um because when Maderna and if people haven't heard this, Maderna came out with the vaccine blueprint 2 days after they got the the uh the blueprint or the the sequence from China. Once they had the virus details, the vaccine was created two days later. The blueprint that was before a single person in the United States was declared dead. So this is before it was even a market event. That's how quickly and it was all related to artificial intelligence. The stock that day was $20. A year and a half later it was $500. And everyone remembers Maderna couldn't be stopped. And that was because they took what they had done and said, "Oh, mRNA technology is going to change the world and we're going to cure everything." That is an S curve adoption scenario. like it will be involved in curing everything eventually but at the time it was too fast so the stock has basically cratered back down. Uh what happened in the last few weeks is Eli Liy which had been under pressure for a period of time mainly because the the uncertainty over what they were going to do with drug prices. Drug prices are really critical for a lot of people in the country and especially voters. So and inflation. So, we want drug prices to go down. So, Eli Liy announced number one, they're building a massive AI drug factory, and they announced it with Nvidia. Number two, for people who don't know, they've had a partnership now for almost two years, if not two years, with Google DeepMine, their their lab, which is Isomorphic Labs, and Incilico, this company. Now, Isomorphic Labs is an AI generated group from DeepMind where they're trying to solve everything. So, they are the group that had Alpha Fold 3. AlphaFold 3, which came out two years ago, led to Demisabus. Actually, Alphold 3 came out last year. It led to Demisabus from Google Deep Mind the Head, one of the leaders of Google getting the Nobel Prize. and he said in January of this year and he said it on a 60 minutes which everyone should go wa watch by the end of this year we will have AI uh drugs going into clinical trials now what this will do is people will start to realize how much is spent on R&D both time and massive amounts of money where 90% of every drug never even make it to trial so the failure rate is very high so the amount of money wasted on things what they're doing is saying no this is the blueprint like Maderna that's going to get you this. What Encilico does is they're the engineer that goes through and starts creating what would actually work and then Eli Liy is the manufacturer. So this is kind of like this process of going from idea to solve a problem. Oh, okay. Let's test it out and see if it gets get it to clinical trial. So I don't want to make this too long, but this is part of the story. Um, Google DeepMind hired a chief medical officer who's an expert in getting things through clinical trials back in June, Ben Wolf. They have talked openly about being close and there's a bunch of interviews that people at isomeorphic have talked about. Now, they can't say exactly what's going on, but this is related to cancer. That's where their focus has been. Their focus has been on cancer. Eli Lily announced an upgrade in the il in silicico relationship this week. All of this stuff has happened in the last three weeks. And so when a stock goes higher >> as much as it has and to give you guys an idea this this month when there's panic everywhere the S&P 1500 pharma index is having its second best month since 1999. So for those of you looking for longs right now, I would go spend some time on biotech. The great thing about pharma and biotech, they're like tech. Like if if if you get a story that you're curing cancer, you start going through it. But the main point is Merc is an 11P stock. The Mag 7 are not cheap. >> Mhm. >> They're spending money. Merc is maybe getting to the point where their expenses will grow. So what you've been seeing the last couple years is a lot of companies that are all of a sudden benefiting. Their multiples are going higher. In places like Salesforce.com, their multiples are coming down. Chipotle, their multiples are coming down. I can make the argument that all of the multiple compression names, it's been related to AI disruption. Now you're starting to get the multiple names on the bottom that are starting to do well on this. So I think between commodities, energy, and pharma, and financials for next year, those are the places that may not be sexy for retail traders, but I learned with GameStock, they'll trade anything that can make them money, and they should be. Those are the places where I think the river is going to start flowing well. And I just don't agree with Dan Ies. I don't think the tech sector is going to be as easy as it's been the last 2 years.
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Now, one thing that I think is very fascinating, um, and maybe I can share with you a, uh, a framework that I've started to come around to, and, um, it's a combination of talking to lots of different people, but Bitcoin was kind of the sledgehammer to what I would consider, uh, boring innovation. So most of the innovation we talked about pre kind of Bitcoin hitting the main stage was okay the iPhone came out. It was very innovative. It was disruptive, but it wasn't uh a true external technology sledgehammer, right? It was more kind of an evolution. Okay, we have a computer. We have an iPod. We're going to just make it a little bit smaller. We're going to add some features to it. Uh there's definitely some sort of innovation that happens here, but we're taking kind of steps closer and closer to it. Gets smaller. Goes in your pocket, you know, etc. Bitcoin was really a thing that was like this external shock to the system, right? It took ideas from the legacy system, but it was this external thing. You are now seeing this happen much more rapidly. I think in technology and true innovation is are these external shocks. LLM's is not a kind of one to two to three, you know, type evolution. This is an external shock to a lot of these companies. in pharmaceutical. I invested in a friend of mine uh um a company called Varta at the time. It was not necessarily a pharmaceutical company. It was very much uh now that we have reusable rockets which Blue Origin now is a second company in America uh that can go ahead and do this. The cost to get to space has significantly come down. What if we can manufacture things in space, bring them back to Earth to benefit on Earth? So a lot of people think of space as like let's go outward. Their thing was let's use space to come back here. Now they thought about a lot of different things. They've ended up one of the key components is pharmaceutical. The idea of manufacturing drugs in zero gravity. Certain things are possible that are not as either cheap or possible here on earth. That is an external innovative shock to pharmaceutical development. Right? So there's like the science of like what are the drugs and then how do you actually manufacture them.
>> I think that you can go through whether it's Bitcoin, LLM, something like a Varta, etc. And you can see that these external shocks, they're incredibly hard to create, but when they happen, >> y >> it spreads like wildfire through an industry. And I actually wonder how many people are Bitcoin minded versus people who start to recognize these patterns of, okay, I know a lot of people who are say, look, I I Bitcoin, I didn't sell my Bitcoin. I still got my Bitcoin. Net new dollars though, they went to AI. Net new dollars next are going to go to humanoid robots. And that new dollars from that are going to go to, you know, pharmaceutical develop like they're actually innovation investors, >> not just Bitcoin investors. And I think that that ability maybe is actually going to become a very core skill that's important kind of for the world that we're going into. You agree with that?
>> Yeah, I agree. And and this is actually an important point for for people to connect one dot with. So when we've talked about Tesla, when we talk about well now pharmaceuticals curing cancer, >> never thought we'd talk about pharmaceuticals on here, but I'm I'm here for it. I I I I never did either, but look at the chart of Eli Lilly and just be like, "Well, that thing moved fast and that's a big I mean, they're trillion dollars now." Again, >> I think uh Ken Langon, if I if I understand, if I remember correctly, his average holding period is 42 years in his portfolio, like just goat, right? And if I remember correctly, he has held Eli Liy for something like 40ome years and still holds the position today.
>> Yeah, it's that's an that's an amazing story. The chart is an amazing chart. The story is an amazing story. You're talking about once you get to curing cancer. Okay. And when I when I say curing it, it doesn't get rid of it. It becomes something you just have, but it doesn't kill you.
>> And if you go start and this is what I want everyone to do, just watch the 60inute and I say the 60-minute YouTube because Demis for for it's probably a 12minute clip. He talks about this year beginning to cure all diseases and it'll take and he said by 2035 we'll have cured all diseases. Oh well that that means we won't see it there. I'm like that's not the way markets work. Maderna is the example of a company that solved a problem that was really critical at the time and everyone dove into it and it raced. If you get someone that's cancer affects everyone like everyone. There is not a single person that hasn't had a family member that's gone through or a friend who's gone through cancer. So, anything related to cancer is a massive change. Now, anyone who's been following the news realizes that all of this stuff has really accelerated since Gen AI. That is the gateway to all of this stuff. So, for the last 3 years, the trade was the infrastructure trade and it was the MAG 7. I'm just saying that that is not the trade. So, do I still think Tesla's going to have a great year next year? Yes, because I think humanoids will be brought forward. Most institutional investors will not buy, oh great, we're going to cure drugs. How do I invest in that? But when you see their earnings revisions going higher, and this is the thing people have to realize, I wrote in in in in Coreweee. Coreweave had to lower stuff. Quan strategies look for estimate revisions moving higher. If the cutting expense side and the efficiency thing ends up being the big thing, if small caps do well because of the rate cuts and the fact that people have to remember the one big beautiful bill, the majority of the fiscal impact is going to happen in the first half of the year because we got the midterms. So, they wanted that to happen. We also have rate cuts going on around the globe. And on a two-year lag, we started to cut rates. You're going to start seeing the impact of lower rates that's going to filter in because monetary policy runs with a lag. This is the first half of next year. You've got commodity prices that are ticking higher. Why the capex? The capex is still going to happen. It's just going to be slower than what people thought. So these companies will have to p push their earnings out. And that's why when you get into this, this is about less about oh, we're having to push our earnings out and oh my gosh, when are those numbers are huge, we have to go buy these. It's a very different market when you get into that side of where people where people are valuing something there. So your comparison between humanoids, between pharmaceuticals, all of this stuff to me is going to line up next year.
>> When you look at the market, uh, moving forward, Bitcoin is up, let's call it, 6% over the last year, 4% uh, year to date. Atrocious performance in Bitcoiners minds. Atrocious, right? the S&P and NASDAQ, I think it's up 14 and 18% or, you know, whatever it is. Um, getting trounced by just major equity indexes. Bitcoin is now trading below the level when Trump took office. >> Mhm. >> There is um a sentiment change that's happening. I have talked with um in private a number of what I would consider very hardcore Bitcoin believers. Some of them are saying, "Hey, we're going into a bare market." Some of them are getting a little frustrated and saying maybe there's not as much upside return here as possible. Maybe kind of like a Peter Teal, you know, type uh uh viewpoint. On one hand, when I hear that stuff and the negative bearish sentiment, I think be bullish. Do the opposite of what other people, right? You go on X, everyone's bearish. Maybe I should be bullish. At the same time, if everyone who's supposed to be buying the asset is bearish and they're not buying the asset, >> yep, >> it kind of reinforces downward pressure on a stock, whether that's Bitcoin, tech stocks, or whatever.
>> How do you decipher the difference between bearish sentiment being positive versus like don't try to be different and wrong, you know, just follow the crowd?
>> All right. So this is where um so when I wrote the paper about the IPO price within the paper I said it still may go lower in in the interim and the reason is because of what you said at the beginning of the question which is there needs to still be more distribution from the original people that bootstrapped this asset. It needs to happen. Um part of it needs to be d uh opportunity cost. Part of it needs to be diversification, but every single day the ETF inflows continue. The treasury company buying continues. There is a handoff on things that didn't exist to what does exist. Um, A16Z put out their state of the crypto report. I'll be going through about seven to eight of the slides because I think they get into the point that I'm most interested in. So, I'm a macro person. I don't care about I mean I care what it does each day, but my vision of it is not about what it does this year. It's not even what it does next year. If we're still at 94,000 next year, trust me, the sentiment will be even lower and people will be hysterical. But I believe the volumes are going to increase. The network effects are going to happen. Um Caitlyn Long is a beloved person in the space because of the fight she's shown. She's reiterated her thing, which I agree with, too. Money velocity sucks in the traditional finance world. There's so much money trapped with the few that own it. So, it's very similar to Bitcoin, meaning highly concentrated. Well, the trad fiat world is highly concentrated owned as well. Most of the assets around the globe are in the top 1% of people. It's actually to some degree worse in in terms of concentration. And a lot of that money doesn't move. It sits in real estate. Tokenization is going to happen. Stable coin volumes are going to happen. AI agents are going to happen. Those three things are the holy trinity of the digital economy taking over the traditional finance world. That's not a guess on my part. That is going to happen. We still have three years left of this administration. We haven't got the market structure act in. So when clarity is in for everyone who's doubting where it's going, that's a trader mentality. And that's fine. You have to have that mentality at this point because you got to preserve if you're trading. If you're someone who's thinking about where it's going to be five years from now, 10 years from now, like I am 20 years from now, I fundamentally believe what I have said repeatedly on every podcast I go on. I'm interested in the way artificial intelligence is going to change the world. It is disruptive to the wealthy. It is disruptive to everyone who's had a moat around their lives, who's had a moat around their business. What it's good for is the people transacting. I believe in prediction markets. I believe in tokenization connected to prediction markets. All of these things to me are going to happen and they're going to continue to increase next year. The one thing that didn't happen this year, as long as Dan Ies is right and the stocks that he's following are doing well, people don't need Bitcoin. They don't need that innovation. What drives people into an innovative name like Tesla or Bitcoin? It has to happen when there's not as many opportunities and choices and things that are working that are bigger market caps. Bitcoin has a market cap where history will tell you when you get to this level, you're real. Like, you don't have to doubt it anymore. Could we go to 80,000? I guess we could if the stock market falls off, but I don't think the S&P is going to fall off. I think we're at the end of a liquidation of growth stocks and that next year growth will not be a good factor. Growth has a variety of times where it doesn't work. Bitcoin is heavily heavily correlated to retail trading. It's heavily correlated in the short term to growth. If I'm right and growth isn't going to work the way that it is, this is not a value trade. This is just if the growth names are not dominating the market, then Bitcoin's going to start to be sexy again when it starts to trade higher. Price drives in the narrative always. As Paul Tudtor Jones said, it's something I believe in. The narrative is bad right now because the price is bad. If the prices back up, the narrative will be very good.
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Is there any credence to um people started buying Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general? uh 2020 2021 was really kind of like the big moment that I would say we transitioned from um early adopters to beginning of mass adoption, right? >> Mhm. >> That crowd if they let's say were buying Bitcoin and they said, you know, I'm pretty riskaverse, but I think I need to have this in my portfolio. I'm going to put 2% exposure on. I'm not a crazy zealot, you know, Bitcoiner, but also I don't believe the dollar is the best place to have, you know, all my wealth. And so this Bitcoin thing seems to have a place in a portfolio. I'll put 2%. Bitcoin's up 500% since then over the last 5 years of 500%. That 2% is now 10%. Is there any idea of like maybe I just don't need more of it, right? Like like if it's 10% of my portfolio, I never expected it to be 10%. It's just grown so much and I don't want to rebalance because I don't want to sell my Bitcoin because rule number one of Bitcoin is don't sell. But a net new dollar going into Bitcoin means I'm going to push it higher than my 10% current allocation. Like there's something about Bitcoin has still almost done so well. The hardcore Bitcoiners were never going to sell and they wanted to become 95% of their portfolio, but this mass adoption uh kind of cohort, I don't know if they want Bitcoin to be 50 to 95% of their portfolio. Like there is some number that once it gets hit, it almost feels like they're like, "Okay, I've got enough of that." >> Right. Is that something that you think could be playing out too?
>> Um, yes. But let let me take um let me break Bitcoin down into four quadrants of of of >> let's say buyers plus people that have bought. >> Okay, you have the ideological group. This is I wrote a paper about um the difference between libertarian and democracy with inside Bitcoin. The ideological group didn't want IBIT. It didn't want like it didn't want >> hardcore zealot bitcoiner. Zealot not being a negative term, being a like this is the essence of what Bitcoin is. They've defended Bitcoin to >> Peter Teal, all that. So that's quadrant one. And the great thing is they're the ones just like with the internet, which again was a libertarian thing which has turned into a platform thing. They came and they said the government is wrong and we want to get away from this. Let's do this and let's break >> their strangle holding control. Okay, that's one. And I think that's a lot of the selling that's been going on. And again, you get in early. It's a major part of your net worth. You need to diversify. And if you don't believe the ideology anymore, you should be getting out. Number two, the second quadrant. This is the 2020 crowd. This is when I joined. I hear these people speak and I will not name names. They believe >> name them. >> No. No. I I I actually, and the reason I say no, >> I'm going to say what I don't disagree with, and if they believe in this, they can go through it. They say that the dollar will get trashed and the government is printing inflation and it's all about QE and that's why I need to be long Bitcoin. I don't agree with that crowd. And the reason is the third quadrant. These are people in South America. You know what they're buying Bitcoin? It's the dollar. They want the dollar. >> The reason they want the dollar is because they don't trust their own government. So, this gets back into the Michael Sailor thing of people that are talking about how the dollar is weak and inflation's coming. That is an educated wealthy game story like that that hey, I'm wealthy. I have a lot to lose. You're screwing me. I want to buy Bitcoin. That was kind of Michael Sailor's story. But there's another part that he talks about which is the people in countries that don't truly trust their government. We we don't have the basement in the US the way they do in Brazil. the way it is in Argentina, the way way it is in Zimbabwe and other countries where you literally are losing all of your ability to participate in the global environment. So that third quadrant to me is a growing part and it's not going to stop and they're the ones also the onchain volume of transactions remittances and that a lot of it is happening in those and they're going to continue to do it and if you go through that A16 report they show it. The final group is the portfolio diversification and I want to remind everyone about the Rick Edelman story and don't forget you know his argument of like you should have up to 40%. The reason was because we're going to extend our lifespan. So let me go back to the pharmaceutical side. How about next year we start talking about curing cancer and curing all diseases and people go so wait I I get they start really understanding that they weren't joking about living a lot longer. Well, now you need innovation. You need things that are going to grow with you. I'm not saying everyone should put all their money into Bitcoin, but it should it be zero, which it is for the majority of people. No. And you've just allowed the financial advisors and you've just allowed the banks to start getting involved. The portfolio diversification crowd, the one that's buying IBIT every day, that will continue to grow. They're buying from the first quadrant, some of the second quadrant. So I believe that's what needs to happen is this has to go from ideology to wealthy people saying no I'm I I don't believe in the government to people that are doing it for diversification and for actually surviving through government debasement. And I think that's a very powerful story in the long run. And when you add in the tokenization and the things where the wealthy people have these illquid assets and they're going to need to get a price form private credit would be trading a lot better. commercial real estate would be trading a lot better if someone didn't have five potential buyers and actually had eight billion potential buyers. you have to pick one or two asset classes for I don't know through the end of 2026 where you think that there's the most mispricing the most misunderstanding right I think some people will look at the things that have been working who are just down and like oh it's not over that that's kind of one viewpoint but also I think that there's uh maybe the smartest investors that I really respect they are what's the next thing what what's the where's the next capital you know kind of rotation going to what is that for So I I I am I'm going to re-emphasize it because I I I think you need to sit back and you need to think about this. So let me go start with the stock market and and just say two things. Uh I do believe international stocks are going to outperform US stocks. One of the themes that people should be paying attention to when you go through a year where AI was the dominant theme and we own it. So go back to kind of the internet, go back to the post 2009 period with mobile. This was not a great year for the Mag 7. >> Um they've underperformed Europe. They've underperformed China. They've underperformed emerging markets. That should be something people should be thinking about what normally when tech is dominating the S&P's outperforming, NASDAQ's outperforming. That didn't happen this year. Um, and you can try to go through this like it's not that American exceptionalism is down. I just believe that we are building out and spending an enormous amount of money. And rather than call it a bubble, uh, I believe that this has been we're building something out which is actually going to democratize it, which means the people who get swallowed up by it are the people who are doing the building of it. They don't actually monetize it to the degree that they did on the prior thing. That is something I believe in and we've we've talked about it. So in that, I don't think it's tech stocks. I don't think it's the mag 7 with inside equities. I think if people sit back and go humanoids and longevity expansion, those two things at some point they go from being outside the front mirror driving a car and you're like, hey, I can see the humanoids now. Hey, I I can see life expansion. Those are the things you want to invest in when they're just getting on, you know, a long-term drive. And I think they're going to enter next year. So, those will be I still think international stocks within ex equities. Uh, I think Bitcoin again because of the token because of the tokenization rise next year and because of the clarity act, I just think with sentiment this bad, far worse, like S&P sentiment's nothing compared to where Bitcoin is. So, you said it feels like a crash when it's up five, six%, you know, for the year. I think that'll be the best performing thing. So, those two things are the areas that I would or three things I I would focus my attention on.
>> All right. I appreciate your time this week. You're uh always bringing unique insights. pharmaceuticals, all this stuff. This is why I enjoy this conversation so much. Uh, I need a favor from everyone who watches this every day. Uh, every Sunday, Jordy puts out an excellent video, different links. I don't know where he finds all the charts. He comes up, he's got all his tabs up. It's like a professor. It's like free content. People would pay tens of thousands, maybe now US colleges would charge hundreds of thousands of dollars to get this level of quality information. I need you to go on YouTube and just type in Jordy Visser. You're going to see his nice face pop up, his little YouTube channel. Click on it and there's a big fat red subscribe button. I want you to subscribe. And every person who does that, I want you when you hit the button to say thank you. It's a thank you to him for spending all his time with us. It's a thank you for him putting out all this great information. The subscribe button is kind of like, you like a digital tip, a little digital thank you to Jordy. So just type in Jordy Visser on YouTube. Go there, click subscribe, watch the video. If you click subscribe and you don't watch the video, it's like showing up to a party saying hi and Irish exiting. Don't do that. Just stay for a few minutes, watch the video. You're going to learn a lot. We appreciate you coming every week. And uh all of you, it'd be a thank you to Jordy if you go and do that.
>> I appreciate you doing that. And to you guys who do it, uh I do that video literally to help people learn and hopefully to give them confidence, especially when markets are like this. I promise you this weekend's video will go through the pharmaceutical thing and give you the chance to listen to your own podcast on it. My goal was initially that if I build a relationship with the audience where they're learning from me, AI, trading markets, some technical things that I view, but also I like to be early to things. The pharmaceutical thing is early. It's an early story. It is not talked about. I will go through a lot of charts. The tech story is old now guys. It's been three years of chat GPT. You got to find a new playbook. And I think the new playbook is coming in >> in life. There's some great pairings. You know, wine and cheese and go through stuff. The weekends, they're for Pomp and Jordy. Saturday and Sunday, right? There you go. All right. Thank you guys so much for watching. We'll see you guys next weekend. Facts.