Physical Flows Signal a Shift in Gold and Silver Feat. Andy Schectman - LFTV Ep 266

The one thing that they've missed more than anything is who the hell is standing for delivery. It to the tune of billions and billions and billions and billions every single month for about a year and a half now. And a lot of it now being loaded out of the exchanges. So to me, that's the only thing that matters.

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They now have to keep printing or we crash.

We've got this ticking time bomb.

Talking [music] gold with the one and only Andrew Maguire. Welcome [music] to Live from the Vault.

Welcome to Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money, and this is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the gold and silver markets with worldrenowned whistleblower and industry expert Andrew Maguire. And this week, he's joined by the very special, very special featured guest. Yes, we're talking Andy Sheckchman from Miles Franklin is in the vault and we're talking gold, we're talking silver, and you're not going to want to miss a word of this conversation. So, let's head over to the UK and join Andrew Maguire and our featured guest, Mr. Andy Sheckchman. Over to you, Andrew.

Thanks, Shane. Andy, thank you so much, my friend, for joining us today.

Andrew, it's great to see you, brother. It's uh always an honor to be here with you and I'm going to be there uh over the New Year holiday and I do hope we get to meet in person. Plant a seed early here.

Well, I mean, hey, I I think a beer or three might not be a

and they're on me. I promise you that much.

So, good to have you. And tell you what, there is obviously we're we're we're recording this on just want to let people know we're recording this on Wednesday. Um and so what we're talking about is the big picture here. But we've just experienced what is a um what is called a correction and um but what it's done I think um from our perspective and your perspective is we're facing the physical markets, we're facing the wholesale. You also face the retail markets which is going to be so interesting. Um and obviously we see a huge divergence here between the disconnect between the physical and the paper markets here. Um and this is the kind of inflection point. We saw this I think the last time we saw anything of this scale uh and and uh was in and it took years to resolve as opposed to just just really 4 months worth of of of of correction was back in the um 2013 when we saw the 2008 um we saw an initial initial very similar initial dollar scramble for dollars and we see the price come down a bit and then off it goes and China buys and everyone's buying and in 2013 uh I remember publishing the ABN embro letter on the on the which on the 1 of April uh which on the end of uh actually in March of 2013 and if you remember that was the time when the PPT the plunge protection came in after a meeting with the presidential meeting with all the bullin banks and smacked it down. It was four years of downs. We've just had this done in four a four month period of the same kind of scale. Tell us what you're seeing, Andy. I can't wait to hear.

Well, I mean, I I think that that the gold and silver coming down, Andrew, changes nothing. It's the same game that's always been played. the paper markets push price around and strong hands are accumulating the real metal. I I don't think lower prices are weakness. To me, they're an opportunity this time. And I mean that sincerely because this is accumulation. This is this is positioning. There's a buyer for every seller. And the buyers of this panic are the smart money traders, the people that know the fundamentals haven't changed. And to me, this is only normal sediment reset um to build a fuel for the for the next leg up. You know, let's talk about silver for a moment. We talk about this movement down, this correction, which the Bank of International Settlements came out and said, "Look, this move in their mind is structural, not fundamental." What does that mean? Well, they say that it had to do with the massive influx of of metal running into the levered ETFs that all had to rebalance in January along with the ma the massive increase in margin requirements on the CME that went up over 300% in a month. specifically designed and targeted to squeeze the speculators had much far reach much more far-reaching effects into the retail industry and the refining industry here in the states. But what it really did is it it absolutely blew up all of the speculators who had to post 300% more margin in a period of a month to keep their positions open when they didn't. Selling beget selling beget selling beget selling beget selling and bang the price collapses. We see banks like JP Morgan covering at the very bottom. We see massive deliveries not just on COMX, LBMA or Shanghai. But I think it's very interesting. Let's start with China. Uh Bloomberg just reported that the Chinese custom data says that 790 tons of silver were imported by China in the first two months of the year. February alone, 470 tons, the highest monthly import volume ever recorded. While the price got its teeth kicked in. So while paper gets pushed down, China was vacuuming up physical supply at every available shelf on the planet like it's never been seen before. And we saw 100 tons of of silver leave the um the Shanghai market in a period of a week. So big big big money is standing for delivery across the globe. We've seen in the last 6 months 200 million ounces of silver in the registered category. September of 2025. Six months later, we're right here and it's about 78 million. So, over 120 million ounces have been drawn down in six months. Who's doing this? We look at February uh here in the States, which is a non-dely month, right? It's you can take delivery, but not a primary delivery. Roughly 25 million ounces delivered on Comx. one of the smaller deliveries we've seen in the last year and a half. But 160% of what deliveries could explain alone, roughly 38.5 million uh ounces, left COMX, that's over 2 million pounds. Who is arranging the logistics for this? Who is putting all [snorts] of those bars on semitrs and driving down the street with insurance and logistics? And where's it going? Is there a coincidence that it has been classified a critical mineral? I'm just saying. But we're seeing the same thing in gold, too. Um, massive deliveries, huge deliveries. And to me, Andrew, price is just a tool of misdirection. Now, if I had to be completely honest, I feel that indeed this correction was completely structural because of the structured change is not fundamental. And I also feel as though the banks that have been playing these games for a very long time realize for whatever reason that being on this side right now in a market where traders have have under have now come to the conclusion that what the west has been doing is a way to to control prices and they they figure the way to win the game is to stand for delivery across the globe. We see that and it's almost as if they're trying to get on sides and and you look at what Ed Steer just said. He said the commercial banks right now have the lowest short position in history in silver. So could it be could the economic times be right that the banks in the United States are flip-flopping trying to get that long using these drawdowns with massive leverage that that is very not organic let's say or or what's happening with Jane Street and the theories behind that. Could it be that they were using these episodes to go long to to flush out the the speculator to flip-flop sentiment that was wickedly bullish for a while and now has fallen to allow the fuel for the next leg up? And I'll say this to me, the one thing that the media has missed more than anything, uh, they've talked about price. They've talked about all the negative reasons why gold didn't, you know, shine in a period of war and and all of these things to make it look bad. Uh, silver, the devil's metal, they call it, overbought, uh, you know, fundamentals look bad. It's another 1980. It's another 2011. The one thing that they've missed more than anything is who the hell is standing for delivery. It to the tune of billions and billions and billions and billions every single month for about a year and a half now. And a lot of it now being loaded out of the exchanges. So to me, that's the only thing that matters. Everything else is a distraction. Everything else is noise. the most well-informed traders on the planet. Starting with the central banks for years, as you and I have talked about, now moving to whoever the hell is doing it here in the United States, which I have felt for a long time with the Exchange Stabilization Fund, doing it on behalf of the Treasury for National Security, therefore does not need congressional approval, but who's standing for delivery for literally billions every month. And I will leave it to you for your next question by simply saying when they asked Wayne Gretzky how he was such a great hockey player, he said, "I never skated to the puck. I skated to where it's going." Do you think that these people who are spending nine figures every single month for over 16 straight months unabated are not skating to where the puck is going? At the very least, do they do you not think they know where the puck is going? And price is a tool of misdirection when mixed with the lack of journalistic integrity and the ability to control the narrative through um through mainstream reporting that that misses the entire story alto together talks about some of it but misses the one thing that matters and who the hell is spending this kind of money and taking delivery and a lot of it leaving the building. I I will leave it to you for your next question but to me that's all that matters Andrew.

Well, yes, because you're quite right because they're looking at it through western lenses. They just don't understand. And this is one of the reasons why. And you mentioned they talk about gold is no longer shining. It's no longer the hedge it used to be. Absolutely. It acted as the very hedge into this dollar funding crisis. Out of the war conditions, it exact acted exactly as it should have done. It provided the only form of liquidity that was available for a sudden event like this. And and and so when are they crazy? They say it doesn't act as a hedge. It was acting as a hedge. But guess what? And now you've just nailed it too, Andy. Yeah. So now they've sorted that out. It was a surprise. It's a war event. It it it hit everyone hard. It was a just like in 2008 there was a initial dollar dollar funding crisis. You need to sort of get some liquidity quick. Well, what else is better than gold? And so, yes, structurally it created that mechanical selloff, but as you say, why does these guys not understand that that it did its job? And guess what they're doing right now is what you've just outlined they're doing is buying the heck out of every single physical ounce that a higher dollar is providing you to get more ounces for your dollar. And you don't think they're capitalizing on that? Nandy, you've just absolutely nailed it. Of course, that's what's going on.

I appreciate that. And and you can look at the March 20th commitment to traders report which shows that at the very very very bottom JP Morgan closes 633 short contracts or 3,165,000 ounces of silver just happened to be right at the bottom. And let's not forget about the four glitches we've seen. Two to the up, two to the down when the price fell, the circuit breakers glitch. Sorry. And on the price up on Thanksgiving night, the the servers of the CME Group overheat just in the thousand commodities that are traded just in gold and silver overheat on Thanksgiving night because everyone's trading. Or how about the fact that so far in March we've already seen 12,532 gold contracts stopped or delivered 1,253,200 ounces of gold or 8,713 silver contracts. Now I want I don't where's my phone? 8,713 time 5,000 is 8713 time. So, so far there's been uh 43,565,000 ounces delivered, stopped. It's called issued and stopped delivered to the ComX market and the month isn't even over. So, you put those two numbers together, you're 7 8 9 billion dollars worth of gold and silver again delivered and no one's saying who's doing this. That's the part that I think is being massively missed. These people do not screw around at this level. This is why I believe the lack of trust in these markets is growing to a point where now you have India coming out and saying as of April 1, we're no longer using the London London benchmark for our ETF valuations. We're going to do it ourselves. You are having people pull their metal out of the system. At last Friday, 2 million ounces left. Comx in one day out of the eligible category, not even registered. These are people that have metal sitting in these accounts and they're just pulling it out because you know what? I don't want it there anymore. I don't trust a system. And I think when you realize that, you know, you got over a 100 million ounces delivered in January and February plus 26 or or so 40ome 43 million ounces so far in March. Plus, we're well into the sixth year of a structural deficit in silver according to the silver institute. Um, it's crazy. It's absolutely crazy that this is being missed by the mainstream. To me, everything else is irre relevant. Um, and I think, you know, you can make an argument that this is exactly the the um the type of atmosphere where you could expect the price really to massively accentuate in an atmosphere of virtually zero open interest. So all the open interest has been flushed out. Any demand would push would have outsiz return or outsiz um effect on the price. and and that's exactly what they want when all the speculators have given up and are licking their wounds.

Yeah. And it's so interesting and and silver is of course is of course the Achilles heel and and it always has been. And I think um and when you think about it you you you if you try and go and buy silver in London um at the LBMA, it's a bilaterally settled contract. Therefore, the the reference price at the fix, forget it. It's nothing to do with that price at all because now and the more size the bigger the size you want the higher the premium. So, so essentially what that does is kind of put the comx in the crosshairs where you can actually load out some stop some some inventory but I'm running into problems here or or my liquidity provider recently ran into a problem. They're saying look yeah but yeah they don't want to let me have it. is that essentially what they're saying is is that because of export controls all of a sudden now if I'm a PBOC buyer or I'm a or a foreign entity and I want to take that silver cuz I haven't got any and my my inventories are record lows and I want to restock I go to the only source that I can actually physically load it out from should be the comics but there's export controls and I think it's leeched down to the word on the street is no make them a price. So what our liquidity provider said happened to him was he was told right tell you what we'll here's your settlement price it is whatever we can determine at the LBMA for a bilaterally settled price which is plus the 8% for um for um for lease costs and one thing and another and then the additional cost to ship it out. they still find it worth the arbitrage. You can't get it right out of the comx. So the arbitrage where whereas we've seen what silver shani silver running around about a 10 bark 13% premium all the time to to what's been going on consistently

months and months and months. Yes.

Months and months and months. So now the the if you want so you can't get if you can't get it out of the comx the price settlement that you're being cash settled for is enough to then go to the LBMA force them to lease that bloody gold onto the market which is about 8% in in addition plus the extra cost and they're still doing it because it's still they just need the silver and even though the arbitrage has kind of been taken out of it they need the silver and they're taking it. So this drain is under the radar going on big time and people don't get it.

Well, look at it the other way too. Okay, so the Chinese have the arbitrage at at roughly 13% whatever. Okay, but what people are missing on that too and and there's been a lot of question about it and I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. I've I've tried to dig as deep as I could into it. There are a lot of people who are confused about the VAT tax on the importation.

Mhm.

To my understanding, the it is the recipient's responsibility to pay the VAT tax when it leaves the Shanghai Metals Exchange. So, if a trader has the ability to deliver it to Shanghai, not only is Shanghai paying a 13% VA um uh vig, if you will, on the premium, but a pretty damn close to a 13% VAT tax as well when it leaves. They're willing to pay 26% above the Western benchmark price cuz that's how bad they want it. So you know you look at it from a standpoint of what really is the price and then you look at India saying well we're not going to even trust the western price anymore so let's set that aside for a moment and then you look at the exchanges that are being built in in the bricks they are going to build a bricks metals exchange along with the bricks grain exchange and I love the comment that the gentleman who is in charge of the grain exchange made about a year ago when he said look you know we in the west they don't produce as much grain as we do they don't consume as much as we do yet they control the price because it's controlled on comx he said but with the development of the bricks grain exchange that will change well the same thing is happening here now you will see things change when the western price just is not looked at as something that can be trusted any longer and trust is something that when you violate it over and over and over again whether it be the shenanigans that have happened at the at the LME or the shenanigans that have happened at the comx or the shenanigans with the 8week delivery delay delays on a T+1 settlement at the LBMA and the glitches and all of the things we are seeing the western edifice the western system in my mind by those who understand it is completely and totally trustless and I do not think that the players that matter have any intention on allowing this system to go back to normal. They will do all they can to bleed it down as easily as they can and as orderly as they can. And a lot of people say, well, why don't they just buy it all up? And they the instant gratification syndrome that we have in this country where everything is about now, now, you know, from cryptocurrency to Nvidia to Apple to gambling to betting on everything. It's all I need it now. There is no grinding and hard work and and laying the foundation anymore. So they they dismiss ideas of a death by a thousand paper cut. So why don't they just buy it all right now? Well, they're buying it as much as they can across the globe on every exchange. They are importing record amounts as the price is getting its teeth kicked in in February. They're flying to China. I mean, the China is flying to Mexico and South America to buy doré and concentrate double what the West will send it back and refine it themselves. Everything they are doing tells you they're playing the long game. And at some point, it just seems to me that the privilege that we have had in in London and in the United States for all these years, which has been abused, is understood by the rest of the world. And they are doing what they can to exploit it with things like a a a arbitrage event that normally would close out like that because the traders would fill it to whatever they can do to play the game as long as possible. Stand for delivery in in any particular manner that they can, but not enough to break the system until the system breaks on its own. And I don't know, it just seems we're getting closer and closer and closer to it when you see all of these things like the rumors of Jane Street where the rumor is similar to what they did in India that they went from roughly 40,000 shares and a month later have over 21 million shares of SLV, the largest holder. At the same time, they load up on options at profit if the price falls, collapse the price, make a gazillion dollars on the options, lose on the on the stock price. But you wonder a Jane a company like Jane Street who's being sued by India who loads up and is the largest holder of shares that is administered by JP Morgan who paid the largest fine ever for manipulating the metals market yet is still allowed to be the custodian of SLV the world's largest silver trust. You have to wonder at some point, you know, at some point like Grant Williams great uh his great um video he did things that make you go h and you look at this stuff and how do you not go h like how many times do we have to be poked in the eye before we start to say you know does this system really does it inspire any confidence? I don't know how you feel about that Andrew. I'd love to know your opinion because I look at this western system as squandering so much in the way of trust and now doing it right out in the open. I wonder how long before in countries like India uh start to do things across the board where countries just start to give up totally on what the LBMA and what the COMX have offered for all of these years and start doing it on their own.

Absolutely. And and I think um what's happening is and I know you've been way ahead of the curve. We talked about this years ago um Andy but but essentially you know very well and you were one of the leading people to talk about this the the gold silver corridors the SGE physically settled supply demand price stable price that is the is a high quality liquid. It even makes silver essentially a highquality liquid asset because all you need to do to have a high quality liquid asset, what you need to do is sure be sure there is a stable supply demand price that you can hedge that you can that a a producer can use for hedging, a refiner can use for hedging without the gains. And all of that liquidity has gone into that welcoming exchange that says there you are here it is. Silver can even become a high quality liquid asset. You can treat it that way even though it isn't technically one. Gold of course is but it it isn't so much in London anymore because there's a 20% forward market that can play games. But so is it any wonder that all the real key players, all the important people have now moved out of the SLV, out of the GLDS, where you can actually short a product where you don't even know what you've got, where where the actual short position of your SLV and GLD position is on someone else's balance sheet, you've never seen. And when there is a problem like we've just had a problem and yes you can you can d you can literally uh try and exit all those positions but will you ever get your physical? No, you won't ever get your physical. So so really they've lost this liquidity and this is the point I'm trying to make really is proper physical liquidity is no longer here in the west. It is gone. It's finished. It's gone away. And so it's ludicrous to me that even that the that the mainstream media still look at this market through Western lenses and say, "Well, look, it isn't performing very well, is it?" I mean, what a joke, Andy. What a joke.

Yeah. Well, and that's the narrative that we've had to fight forever. And that's, you know, that's that's why I focus on the most important thing to me, and that is that whoever is standing for delivery knows where the puck is going. You don't spend billions every month here in the United States, which never happened before, where less than 1% of these contracts ever stood for delivery, unless you unless you know exactly where this ultimately goes. And price is a tool of misdirection when you have the narrative already controlled by a media that is bought and paid for. Um, it's very easy to control the narrative. And you know, I found it interesting that the BIS came out and said what they did to the West. And if you look at it maybe the way you and I would have read it, we would have said, "Wow, they're they're kind of give it taking them to the woodshed saying that the price fell because you guys changed the rules and changed the structure." Anyone else reading that wouldn't quite get it, I don't think. But I looked at it as the first thing that I had seen where someone actually said, you know, you guys created this, you created it on the exchange. You you've loaded everyone into ETFs and then rebalanced them. At the same time, you raise margin requirements by 300% into that event. Bang, the whole thing collapses. And and it just so happened to collapse with two circuit breaker glitches where the markets didn't stop, just freef fall. We're supposed to believe that. And these are the things that I think are being not lost on the rest of the world. I really do believe that. And I think this is one of the reasons why physical possession is so very very important because you're you're seeing the games that are being played at the highest levels. Um and you know you just you wonder how this all finishes out. But if I had to guess if I had to guess you we we've hit the bottom at least very very close to it. It seems as though we have uh we are very close to the end of the quarter. I would expect the price right to you know turn right back up here as all the options that were sold as we've seen many times before here into the end of the quarter are undoubtedly going to expire worthless and the big banks that win all the time win. Now the only thing that's different this time to me if I had to guess is that every time you and I have been talking I was reading your stuff long before I was commenting on things. You know, you've been someone I've been following for a long time, Andrew. And um I will tell you the only thing that seems different to me this time, it's almost as if this administration says, "You've played this game too long talking to the banks. It's time for you to get on the right side of this because things are going to change with gold and silver. Things are going to change with strategic metals. Things are going to change with commodities. We can't play this game anymore." And maybe maybe this is the turning event that we've been waiting for. The economic times more or less said look the banks in the United States have gone net long or you know net long still could be 11 long and 10 short. But that last drop down which which destroyed the this industry in terms of hedging and in terms of refining and had I think effects far past precious metals into the refining industry which is still blown up. Um maybe that was it. Maybe that was the last one. And I know, you know, you can say that a million times until it is the last one, but it just seems that there's a different understanding at that level based upon the deliveries. The deliveries are something I've never seen before. And that to me signals a change in what's happening. Uh where physical is far more important than paper promises. And I think getting on the right side of this, if you're the banks, you know, one of these days they'll make more money to the upside as they did all these years to the downside. Um especially if the goal in this administration is to bring back manufacturing. The only way to do it is in a massively devalued dollar. And what better way to devalue the dollar than to let gold find its real price discovery because it is the only neutral uh reserve asset by which we measure the health of all currencies. So, you know, a lot to think about, Andrew, but it just feels a little bit different that that where, you know, they've always been in control and maybe they still are in control, but is it the realization that the control is waning in an environment where physical delivery and physical demand is becoming worth more than the paper promises? I think that's really what's different this time. What do you think?

Yeah, and I think you there's evidence to back that up. Absolutely, Andy. And and I think we've been looking at at the um option structure. For example, what we have options expiry tomorrow. You have the June the um the April contract for for for for gold moving into rolling into uh June. The option structure illustrates to us that's exactly what's happened. The banks are neutral. They they are fully hedged. Up to five between 5,000 and 5,100 is the sweet spot for gold. 90 bucks is the sweet bucks uh spot for silver. This tells us the banks are not stupid. The banks are still talking about $6 to $7,000 gold. [clears throat] Despite all of this, why? Because they get it. But since Basel since Basel 3 on the first of 1st of January 2023 since Basel 3 uh rec categorize gold as a first year asset class and sure it's only the three to five tons that ever turn up at the fix that are Basel 3 compliant. The rest of it is just the 8 6 to 800 tons that gets cash settled amongst the uh the banks is also is clearly not compliant. But essentially the banks, this is when I think the entire the the big the bank of international settlements diverted from the Fed. The only central bank still fighting the gold of the price the rising price of gold. Every other single central bank has been looking to add reserves along the way for all the right reasons. And the banks are not stupid. They're well connected and they're connected to China. they're connected to to the they're as you see they're getting involved in in all the in they know the gold corridor is opening up they want to be involved and and we see it in Singapore now we see it in all and you know all about all this stuff essentially gold these guys are not short they are actually hedged so who the hell was behind this yes it is the plunge protection team it's war. It's historically the PPT steps in to intervene in goal in all market stress events.

Every single war that I I've been doing this since the Gulf War under President Bush number one, every single time we've gone to war, the price gets clubbed when you think it shouldn't. It does. You're right. That's an interesting point. And you know, did you know Jim Sinclair at all?

Yes.

Yeah. And Jim used to call it mope, management of perception economics, that they come in to manage the perception. I was going to ask you a question by the way. What do you have you seen that story about someone buying 11,000 December 2026 bull spread calls between 15 and 20,000?

I haven't actually, Andy, I haven't seen.

Yeah. So, someone bought 11,000 calls, the bull spread between 15 and 20,000 uh December 2026. the the the purchasing came after the crash, not before the crash to me, which is the key point. So, some large player used the wash out to build a 1.1 million ounce tail risk position at a cost of about 3 million bucks. Um, and it only pays out if if metals triple from here, if gold triples from here. Now, you know, to me, it's like he's not betting on gold as much as he's betting on debt and war and inflation and energy choke point and fertilizer and all this stuff that's going on along with the ddollarization. I know that seems kind of crazy, but it seems like a pretty expensive bet. Um, and if you look, it's all over Twitter. They're talking about it. Um, someone evidently believes that by the end of the year, gold will be between 15 and $20,000, enough to to uh buy 1.1 million ounces worth of gold. options or about a $3 million out of the money uh gamble. I don't know. I found it interesting to think. Does someone know something we don't know? Is someone uh just pissing away some money? I guess we'll have to see.

Well, it's it's really interesting. I I think because people are waking up to the fact what we're talking about here is what is becoming more mainstream. And I think where we talked about the PPT for example, their bandwidth now unlike in the past is limited to how many leveraged ETF specs they can synthetically rinse. Um or and how many um of the very few remaining um only half the open interest remains in gold that it ever was. But you've always got these the those few momentum that are there control 80% of all the oil and the silver and the gold open interest and the you can guarantee if you want to get a a sell-off going what you do is you do exactly what the PPT did this time you okay you lean into the the what would be the natural mechanical effect of rising bond yields and so you get a dollar flush and yeah but you lean into that and then you suck in the momentum. You flush out all the ETFs and specs and but they're limited. I guess the point I'm trying to make they're actually limited to that bandwidth and it's evaporating and you know that bandwidth Andrew that bandwidth they say well, you know gold doesn't do well in a rising interest rate environment and the and the 10-year Treasury rose 40 basis points in less than a month. Okay, normally true. Uh, a higher interest is is not great for gold. But is it because what they use that as a convenient argument, but what about the last couple of years when rates went way up and gold was marching to all-time highs? In other words, the gold went up in the face of rising interest rates. And when it's convenient to talk about it, great. 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and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and the and1 and the and the andThe one thing that they've missed more than anything is who the hell is standing for delivery. It to the tune of billions and billions and billions and billions every single month for about a year and a half now. And a lot of it now being loaded out of the exchanges. So to me, that's the only thing that matters.

[music]

They now have to keep printing or we crash.

We've got this ticking time bomb.

Talking [music] gold with the one and only Andrew Maguire. Welcome [music] to Live from the Vault.

Welcome to Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money, and this is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the gold and silver markets with worldrenowned whistleblower and industry expert Andrew Maguire. And this week, he's joined by the very special, very special featured guest. Yes, we're talking Andy Sheckchman from Miles Franklin is in the vault and we're talking gold, we're talking silver, and you're not going to want to miss a word of this conversation. So, let's head over to the UK and join Andrew Maguire and our featured guest, Mr. Andy Sheckchman. Over to you, Andrew.

Thanks, Shane. Andy, thank you so much, my friend, for joining us today.

Andrew, it's great to see you, brother. It's uh always an honor to be here with you and I'm going to be there uh over the New Year holiday and I do hope we get to meet in person. Plant a seed early here.

Well, I mean, hey, I I think a beer or three might not be a

and they're on me. I promise you that much.

So, good to have you. And tell you what, there is obviously we're we're we're recording this on just want to let people know we're recording this on Wednesday. Um and so what we're talking about is the big picture here. But we've just experienced what is a um what is called a correction and um but what it's done I think um from our perspective and your perspective is we're facing the physical markets, we're facing the wholesale. You also face the retail markets which is going to be so interesting. Um and obviously we see a huge divergence here between the disconnect between the physical and the paper markets here. Um and this is the kind of inflection point. We saw this I think the last time we saw anything of this scale uh and and uh was in and it took years to resolve as opposed to just just really 4 months worth of of of of correction was back in the um 2013 when we saw the 2008 um we saw an initial initial very similar initial dollar scramble for dollars and we see the price come down a bit and then off it goes and China buys and everyone's buying and in 2013 uh I remember publishing the ABN embro letter on the on the which on the 1 of April uh which on the end of uh actually in March of 2013 and if you remember that was the time when the PPT the plunge protection came in after a meeting with the presidential meeting with all the bullin banks and smacked it down. It was four years of downs. We've just had this done in four a four month period of the same kind of scale. Tell us what you're seeing, Andy. I can't wait to hear.

Well, I mean, I I think that that the gold and silver coming down, Andrew, changes nothing. It's the same game that's always been played. the paper markets push price around and strong hands are accumulating the real metal. I I don't think lower prices are weakness. To me, they're an opportunity this time. And I mean that sincerely because this is accumulation. This is this is positioning. There's a buyer for every seller. And the buyers of this panic are the smart money traders, the people that know the fundamentals haven't changed. And to me, this is only normal sediment reset um to build a fuel for the for the next leg up. You know, let's talk about silver for a moment. We talk about this movement down, this correction, which the Bank of International Settlements came out and said, "Look, this move in their mind is structural, not fundamental." What does that mean? Well, they say that it had to do with the massive influx of of metal running into the levered ETFs that all had to rebalance in January along with the ma the massive increase in margin requirements on the CME that went up over 300% in a month. specifically designed and targeted to squeeze the speculators had much far reach much more far-reaching effects into the retail industry and the refining industry here in the states. But what it really did is it it absolutely blew up all of the speculators who had to post 300% more margin in a period of a month to keep their positions open when they didn't. Selling beget selling beget selling beget selling beget selling and bang the price collapses. We see banks like JP Morgan covering at the very bottom. We see massive deliveries not just on COMX, LBMA or Shanghai. But I think it's very interesting. Let's start with China. Uh Bloomberg just reported that the Chinese custom data says that 790 tons of silver were imported by China in the first two months of the year. February alone, 470 tons, the highest monthly import volume ever recorded. While the price got its teeth kicked in. So while paper gets pushed down, China was vacuuming up physical supply at every available shelf on the planet like it's never been seen before. And we saw 100 tons of of silver leave the um the Shanghai market in a period of a week. So big big big money is standing for delivery across the globe. We've seen in the last 6 months 200 million ounces of silver in the registered category. September of 2025. Six months later, we're right here and it's about 78 million. So, over 120 million ounces have been drawn down in six months. Who's doing this? We look at February uh here in the States, which is a non-dely month, right? It's you can take delivery, but not a primary delivery. Roughly 25 million ounces delivered on Comx. one of the smaller deliveries we've seen in the last year and a half. But 160% of what deliveries could explain alone, roughly 38.5 million uh ounces, left COMX, that's over 2 million pounds. Who is arranging the logistics for this? Who is putting all [snorts] of those bars on semitrs and driving down the street with insurance and logistics? And where's it going? Is there a coincidence that it has been classified a critical mineral? I'm just saying. But we're seeing the same thing in gold, too. Um, massive deliveries, huge deliveries. And to me, Andrew, price is just a tool of misdirection. Now, if I had to be completely honest, I feel that indeed this correction was completely structural because of the structured change is not fundamental. And I also feel as though the banks that have been playing these games for a very long time realize for whatever reason that being on this side right now in a market where traders have have under have now come to the conclusion that what the west has been doing is a way to to control prices and they they figure the way to win the game is to stand for delivery across the globe. We see that and it's almost as if they're trying to get on sides and and you look at what Ed Steer just said. He said the commercial banks right now have the lowest short position in history in silver. So could it be could the economic times be right that the banks in the United States are flip-flopping trying to get that long using these drawdowns with massive leverage that that is very not organic let's say or or what's happening with Jane Street and the theories behind that. Could it be that they were using these episodes to go long to to flush out the the speculator to flip-flop sentiment that was wickedly bullish for a while and now has fallen to allow the fuel for the next leg up? And I'll say this to me, the one thing that the media has missed more than anything, uh, they've talked about price. They've talked about all the negative reasons why gold didn't, you know, shine in a period of war and and all of these things to make it look bad. Uh, silver, the devil's metal, they call it, overbought, uh, you know, fundamentals look bad. It's another 1980. It's another 2011. The one thing that they've missed more than anything is who the hell is standing for delivery. It to the tune of billions and billions and billions and billions every single month for about a year and a half now. And a lot of it now being loaded out of the exchanges. So to me, that's the only thing that matters. Everything else is a distraction. Everything else is noise. the most well-informed traders on the planet. Starting with the central banks for years, as you and I have talked about, now moving to whoever the hell is doing it here in the United States, which I have felt for a long time with the Exchange Stabilization Fund, doing it on behalf of the Treasury for National Security, therefore does not need congressional approval, but who's standing for delivery for literally billions every month. And I will leave it to you for your next question by simply saying when they asked Wayne Gretzky how he was such a great hockey player, he said, "I never skated to the puck. I skated to where it's going." Do you think that these people who are spending nine figures every single month for over 16 straight months unabated are not skating to where the puck is going? At the very least, do they do you not think they know where the puck is going? And price is a tool of misdirection when mixed with the lack of journalistic integrity and the ability to control the narrative through um through mainstream reporting that that misses the entire story alto together talks about some of it but misses the one thing that matters and who the hell is spending this kind of money and taking delivery and a lot of it leaving the building. I I will leave it to you for your next question but to me that's all that matters Andrew.

Well, yes, because you're quite right because they're looking at it through western lenses. They just don't understand. And this is one of the reasons why. And you mentioned they talk about gold is no longer shining. It's no longer the hedge it used to be. Absolutely. It acted as the very hedge into this dollar funding crisis. Out of the war conditions, it exact acted exactly as it should have done. It provided the only form of liquidity that was available for a sudden event like this. And and and so when are they crazy? They say it doesn't act as a hedge. It was acting as a hedge. But guess what? And now you've just nailed it too, Andy. Yeah. So now they've sorted that out. It was a surprise. It's a war event. It it it hit everyone hard. It was a just like in 2008 there was a initial dollar dollar funding crisis. You need to sort of get some liquidity quick. Well, what else is better than gold? And so, yes, structurally it created that mechanical selloff, but as you say, why does these guys not understand that that it did its job? And guess what they're doing right now is what you've just outlined they're doing is buying the heck out of every single physical ounce that a higher dollar is providing you to get more ounces for your dollar. And you don't think they're capitalizing on that? Nandy, you've just absolutely nailed it. Of course, that's what's going on.

I appreciate that. And and you can look at the March 20th commitment to traders report which shows that at the very very very bottom JP Morgan closes 633 short contracts or 3,165,000 ounces of silver just happened to be right at the bottom. And let's not forget about the four glitches we've seen. Two to the up, two to the down when the price fell, the circuit breakers glitch. Sorry. And on the price up on Thanksgiving night, the the servers of the CME Group overheat just in the thousand commodities that are traded just in gold and silver overheat on Thanksgiving night because everyone's trading. Or how about the fact that so far in March we've already seen 12,532 gold contracts stopped or delivered 1,253,200 ounces of gold or 8,713 silver contracts. Now I want I don't where's my phone? 8,713 time 5,000 is 8713 time. So, so far there's been uh 43,565,000 ounces delivered, stopped. It's called issued and stopped delivered to the ComX market and the month isn't even over. So, you put those two numbers together, you're 7 8 9 billion dollars worth of gold and silver again delivered and no one's saying who's doing this. That's the part that I think is being massively missed. These people do not screw around at this level. This is why I believe the lack of trust in these markets is growing to a point where now you have India coming out and saying as of April 1, we're no longer using the London London benchmark for our ETF valuations. We're going to do it ourselves. You are having people pull their metal out of the system. At last Friday, 2 million ounces left. Comx in one day out of the eligible category, not even registered. These are people that have metal sitting in these accounts and they're just pulling it out because you know what? I don't want it there anymore. I don't trust a system. And I think when you realize that, you know, you got over a 100 million ounces delivered in January and February plus 26 or or so 40ome 43 million ounces so far in March. Plus, we're well into the sixth year of a structural deficit in silver according to the silver institute. Um, it's crazy. It's absolutely crazy that this is being missed by the mainstream. To me, everything else is irre relevant. Um, and I think, you know, you can make an argument that this is exactly the the um the type of atmosphere where you could expect the price really to massively accentuate in an atmosphere of virtually zero open interest. So all the open interest has been flushed out. Any demand would push would have outsiz return or outsiz um effect on the price. and and that's exactly what they want when all the speculators have given up and are licking their wounds.

Yeah. And it's so interesting and and silver is of course is of course the Achilles heel and and it always has been. And I think um and when you think about it you you you if you try and go and buy silver in London um at the LBMA, it's a bilaterally settled contract. Therefore, the the reference price at the fix, forget it. It's nothing to do with that price at all because now and the more size the bigger the size you want the higher the premium. So, so essentially what that does is kind of put the comx in the crosshairs where you can actually load out some stop some some inventory but I'm running into problems here or or my liquidity provider recently ran into a problem. They're saying look yeah but yeah they don't want to let me have it. is that essentially what they're saying is is that because of export controls all of a sudden now if I'm a PBOC buyer or I'm a or a foreign entity and I want to take that silver cuz I haven't got any and my my inventories are record lows and I want to restock I go to the only source that I can actually physically load it out from should be the comics but there's export controls and I think it's leeched down to the word on the street is no make them a price. So what our liquidity provider said happened to him was he was told right tell you what we'll here's your settlement price it is whatever we can determine at the LBMA for a bilaterally settled price which is plus the 8% for um for um for lease costs and one thing and another and then the additional cost to ship it out. they still find it worth the arbitrage. You can't get it right out of the comx. So the arbitrage where whereas we've seen what silver shani silver running around about a 10 bark 13% premium all the time to to what's been going on consistently

months and months and months. Yes.

Months and months and months. So now the the if you want so you can't get if you can't get it out of the comx the price settlement that you're being cash settled for is enough to then go to the LBMA force them to lease that bloody gold onto the market which is about 8% in in addition plus the extra cost and they're still doing it because it's still they just need the silver and even though the arbitrage has kind of been taken out of it they need the silver and they're taking it. So this drain is under the radar going on big time and people don't get it.

Well, look at it the other way too. Okay, so the Chinese have the arbitrage at at roughly 13% whatever. Okay, but what people are missing on that too and and there's been a lot of question about it and I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. I've I've tried to dig as deep as I could into it. There are a lot of people who are confused about the VAT tax on the importation.

Mhm.

To my understanding, the it is the recipient's responsibility to pay the VAT tax when it leaves the Shanghai Metals Exchange. So, if a trader has the ability to deliver it to Shanghai, not only is Shanghai paying a 13% VA um uh vig, if you will, on the premium, but a pretty damn close to a 13% VAT tax as well when it leaves. They're willing to pay 26% above the Western benchmark price cuz that's how bad they want it. So you know you look at it from a standpoint of what really is the price and then you look at India saying well we're not going to even trust the western price anymore so let's set that aside for a moment and then you look at the exchanges that are being built in in the bricks they are going to build a bricks metals exchange along with the bricks grain exchange and I love the comment that the gentleman who is in charge of the grain exchange made about a year ago when he said look you know we in the west they don't produce as much grain as we do they don't consume as much as we do yet they control the price because it's controlled on comx he said but with the development of the bricks grain exchange that will change well the same thing is happening here now you will see things change when the western price just is not looked at as something that can be trusted any longer and trust is something that when you violate it over and over and over again whether it be the shenanigans that have happened at the at the LME or the shenanigans that have happened at the comx or the shenanigans with the 8week delivery delay delays on a T+1 settlement at the LBMA and the glitches and all of the things we are seeing the western edifice the western system in my mind by those who understand it is completely and totally trustless and I do not think that the players that matter have any intention on allowing this system to go back to normal. They will do all they can to bleed it down as easily as they can and as orderly as they can. And a lot of people say, well, why don't they just buy it all up? And they the instant gratification syndrome that we have in this country where everything is about now, now, you know, from cryptocurrency to Nvidia to Apple to gambling to betting on everything. It's all I need it now. There is no grinding and hard work and and laying the foundation anymore. So they they dismiss ideas of a death by a thousand paper cut. So why don't they just buy it all right now? Well, they're buying it as much as they can across the globe on every exchange. They are importing record amounts as the price is getting its teeth kicked in in February. They're flying to China. I mean, the China is flying to Mexico and South America to buy doré and concentrate double what the West will send it back and refine it themselves. Everything they are doing tells you they're playing the long game. And at some point, it just seems to me that the privilege that we have had in in London and in the United States for all these years, which has been abused, is understood by the rest of the world. And they are doing what they can to exploit it with things like a a a arbitrage event that normally would close out like that because the traders would fill it to whatever they can do to play the game as long as possible. Stand for delivery in in any particular manner that they can, but not enough to break the system until the system breaks on its own. And I don't know, it just seems we're getting closer and closer and closer to it when you see all of these things like the rumors of Jane Street where the rumor is similar to what they did in India that they went from roughly 40,000 shares and a month later have over 21 million shares of SLV, the largest holder. At the same time, they load up on options at profit if the price falls, collapse the price, make a gazillion dollars on the options, lose on the on the stock price. But you wonder a Jane a company like Jane Street who's being sued by India who loads up and is the largest holder of shares that is administered by JP Morgan who paid the largest fine ever for manipulating the metals market yet is still allowed to be the custodian of SLV the world's largest silver trust. You have to wonder at some point, you know, at some point like Grant Williams great uh his great um video he did things that make you go h and you look at this stuff and how do you not go h like how many times do we have to be poked in the eye before we start to say you know does this system really does it inspire any confidence? I don't know how you feel about that Andrew. I'd love to know your opinion because I look at this western system as squandering so much in the way of trust and now doing it right out in the open. I wonder how long before in countries like India uh start to do things across the board where countries just start to give up totally on what the LBMA and what the COMX have offered for all of these years and start doing it on their own.

Absolutely. And and I think um what's happening is and I know you've been way ahead of the curve. We talked about this years ago um Andy but but essentially you know very well and you were one of the leading people to talk about this the the gold silver corridors the SGE physically settled supply demand price stable price that is the is a high quality liquid. It even makes silver essentially a highquality liquid asset because all you need to do to have a high quality liquid asset, what you need to do is sure be sure there is a stable supply demand price that you can hedge that you can that a a producer can use for hedging, a refiner can use for hedging without the gains. And all of that liquidity has gone into that welcoming exchange that says there you are here it is. Silver can even become a high quality liquid asset. You can treat it that way even though it isn't technically one. Gold of course is but it it isn't so much in London anymore because there's a 20% forward market that can play games. But so is it any wonder that all the real key players, all the important people have now moved out of the SLV, out of the GLDS, where you can actually short a product where you don't even know what you've got, where where the actual short position of your SLV and GLD position is on someone else's balance sheet, you've never seen. And when there is a problem like we've just had a problem and yes you can you can d you can literally uh try and exit all those positions but will you ever get your physical? No, you won't ever get your physical. So so really they've lost this liquidity and this is the point I'm trying to make really is proper physical liquidity is no longer here in the west. It is gone. It's finished. It's gone away. And so it's ludicrous to me that even that the that the mainstream media still look at this market through Western lenses and say, "Well, look, it isn't performing very well, is it?" I mean, what a joke, Andy. What a joke.

Yeah. Well, and that's the narrative that we've had to fight forever. And that's, you know, that's that's why I focus on the most important thing to me, and that is that whoever is standing for delivery knows where the puck is going. You don't spend billions every month here in the United States, which never happened before, where less than 1% of these contracts ever stood for delivery, unless you unless you know exactly where this ultimately goes. And price is a tool of misdirection when you have the narrative already controlled by a media that is bought and paid for. Um, it's very easy to control the narrative. And you know, I found it interesting that the BIS came out and said what they did to the West. And if you look at it maybe the way you and I would have read it, we would have said, "Wow, they're they're kind of give it taking them to the woodshed saying that the price fell because you guys changed the rules and changed the structure." Anyone else reading that wouldn't quite get it, I don't think. But I looked at it as the first thing that I had seen where someone actually said, you know, you guys created this, you created it on the exchange. You you've loaded everyone into ETFs and then rebalanced them. At the same time, you raise margin requirements by 300% into that event. Bang, the whole thing collapses. And and it just so happened to collapse with two circuit breaker glitches where the markets didn't stop, just freef fall. We're supposed to believe that. And these are the things that I think are being not lost on the rest of the world. I really do believe that. And I think this is one of the reasons why physical possession is so very very important because you're you're seeing the games that are being played at the highest levels. Um and you know you just you wonder how this all finishes out. But if I had to guess if I had to guess you we we've hit the bottom at least very very close to it. It seems as though we have uh we are very close to the end of the quarter. I would expect the price right to you know turn right back up here as all the options that were sold as we've seen many times before here into the end of the quarter are undoubtedly going to expire worthless and the big banks that win all the time win. Now the only thing that's different this time to me if I had to guess is that every time you and I have been talking I was reading your stuff long before I was commenting on things. You know, you've been someone I've been following for a long time, Andrew. And um I will tell you the only thing that seems different to me this time, it's almost as if this administration says, "You've played this game too long talking to the banks. It's time for you to get on the right side of this because things are going to change with gold and silver. Things are going to change with strategic metals. Things are going to change with commodities. We can't play this game anymore." And maybe maybe this is the turning event that we've been waiting for. The economic times more or less said look the banks in the United States have gone net long or you know net long still could be 11 long and 10 short. But that last drop down which which destroyed the this industry in terms of hedging and in terms of refining and had I think effects far past precious metals into the refining industry which is still blown up. Um maybe that was it. Maybe that was the last one. And I know, you know, you can say that a million times until it is the last one, but it just seems that there's a different understanding at that level based upon the deliveries. The deliveries are something I've never seen before. And that to me signals a change in what's happening. Uh where physical is far more important than paper promises. And I think getting on the right side of this, if you're the banks, you know, one of these days they'll make more money to the upside as they did all these years to the downside. Um especially if the goal in this administration is to bring back manufacturing. The only way to do it is in a massively devalued dollar. And what better way to devalue the dollar than to let gold find its real price discovery because it is the only neutral uh reserve asset by which we measure the health of all currencies. So, you know, a lot to think about, Andrew, but it just feels a little bit different that that where, you know, they've always been in control and maybe they still are in control, but is it the realization that the control is waning in an environment where physical delivery and physical demand is becoming worth more than the paper promises? I think that's really what's different this time. What do you think?

Yeah, and I think you there's evidence to back that up. Absolutely, Andy. And and I think we've been looking at at the um option structure. For example, what we have options expiry tomorrow. You have the June the um the April contract for for for for gold moving into rolling into uh June. The option structure illustrates to us that's exactly what's happened. The banks are neutral. They they are fully hedged. Up to five between 5,000 and 5,100 is the sweet spot for gold. 90 bucks is the sweet bucks uh spot for silver. This tells us the banks are not stupid. The banks are still talking about $6 to $7,000 gold. [clears throat] Despite all of this, why? Because they get it. But since Basel since Basel 3 on the first of 1st of January 2023 since Basel 3 uh rec categorize gold as a first year asset class and sure it's only the three to five tons that ever turn up at the fix that are Basel 3 compliant. The rest of it is just the 8 6 to 800 tons that gets cash settled amongst the uh the banks is also is clearly not compliant. But essentially the banks, this is when I think the entire the the big the bank of international settlements diverted from the Fed. The only central bank still fighting the gold of the price the rising price of gold. Every other single central bank has been looking to add reserves along the way for all the right reasons. And the banks are not stupid. They're well connected and they're connected to China. they're connected to to the they're as you see they're getting involved in in all the in they know the gold corridor is opening up they want to be involved and and we see it in Singapore now we see it in all and you know all about all this stuff essentially gold these guys are not short they are actually hedged so who the hell was behind this yes it is the plunge protection team it's war. It's historically the PPT steps in to intervene in goal in all market stress events.

Every single war that I I've been doing this since the Gulf War under President Bush number one, every single time we've gone to war, the price gets clubbed when you think it shouldn't. It does. You're right. That's an interesting point. And you know, did you know Jim Sinclair at all?

Yes.

Yeah. And Jim used to call it mope, management of perception economics, that they come in to manage the perception. I was going to ask you a question by the way. What do you have you seen that story about someone buying 11,000 December 2026 bull spread calls between 15 and 20,000?

I haven't actually, Andy, I haven't seen.

Yeah. So, someone bought 11,000 calls, the bull spread between 15 and 20,000 uh December 2026. the the the purchasing came after the crash, not before the crash to me, which is the key point. So, some large player used the wash out to build a 1.1 million ounce tail risk position at a cost of about 3 million bucks. Um, and it only pays out if if metals triple from here, if gold triples from here. Now, you know, to me, it's like he's not betting on gold as much as he's betting on debt and war and inflation and energy choke point and fertilizer and all this stuff that's going on along with the ddollarization. I know that seems kind of crazy, but it seems like a pretty expensive bet. Um, and if you look, it's all over Twitter. They're talking about it. Um, someone evidently believes that by the end of the year, gold will be between 15 and $20,000, enough to to uh buy 1.1 million ounces worth of gold. options or about a $3 million out of the money uh gamble. I don't know. I found it interesting to think. Does someone know something we don't know? Is someone uh just pissing away some money? I guess we'll have to see.

Well, it's it's really interesting. I I think because people are waking up to the fact what we're talking about here is what is becoming more mainstream. And I think where we talked about the PPT for example, their bandwidth now unlike in the past is limited to how many leveraged ETF specs they can synthetically rinse. Um or and how many um of the very few remaining um only half the open interest remains in gold that it ever was. But you've always got these the those few momentum that are there control 80% of all the oil and the silver and the gold open interest and the you can guarantee if you want to get a a sell-off going what you do is you do exactly what the PPT did this time you okay you lean into the the what would be the natural mechanical effect of rising bond yields and so you get a dollar flush and yeah but you lean into that and then you suck in the momentum. You flush out all the ETFs and specs and but they're limited. I guess the point I'm trying to make they're actually limited to that bandwidth and it's evaporating and you know that bandwidth Andrew that bandwidth they say well, you know gold doesn't do well in a rising interest rate environment and the and the 10-year Treasury rose 40 basis points in less than a month. Okay, normally true. Uh, a higher interest is is not great for gold. But is it because what they use that as a convenient argument, but what about the last couple of years when rates went way up and gold was marching to all-time highs? In other words, the gold went up in the face of rising interest rates. And when it's convenient to talk about it, great. 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Bart Chilton and I reference it in many of the videos I do because I think it's really important that people understand the stuff that we are talking about is not a conspiracy. It happens, and the head of the CFTC told you that this stuff does happen. And, um, you know, but I think it was much easier for it to happen when everyone trusted the West and the Western institutions and the Western rule of law and the election process and the immigration process and all of the things that made people around the world say, "What the hell's happened to the West? What's happened to those countries?"

Uh, I think once you cross that Rubicon and add into it massive fiscal irresponsibility, creating a trillion dollars in debt every, you know, every 150 days or so. Um, you know, being being wickedly monetarily irresponsible as well. Um, and then going around the world with a stick instead of an olive branch and an open hand. I think we are at the end of the rope, uh, as it pertains to the privilege we've had with these commodities. And it just feels to me like there's a realization at those levels. And maybe I'm just using wishful thinking, but I don't know. It it seems like the act of desperation on this last slam down was unlike anything I've ever seen. Um, and if indeed the banks, like you said, uh, are getting on sides, have the record low, uh, short positions or are neutral, that's something I've never seen before. And if that indeed is what is happening, I guess it does set the stage for the numbers we hear, uh, coming out of of the big bank, 61 to 6700. How about Michael Hartnett, the chief analyst, uh, for Bank of America? "Sell half of your bonds and put 25% of your assets in metals." Same thing with the chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley. The 60/40 rule that they've used forever, he said, is broken. "Sell for 50% of your bonds, that's the 40%. Put 20% in metals." Or Jeffrey Gundlock, the bond king. "25% in metals is not overweight." At the highest level, you're seeing them talking about this being something where price is not something we should fixate on right now. Rather, look at it as an opportunity because if they're right, the second half of this year is going to be fantastic.

>> Yeah. And and the way I honestly, the way I look at this is is is differently to a lot of people, and and it's very similar to you. This gold did what it was supposed to do. We had an institutional liquidity event. It was the only liquid asset that could be could could be accessed to to to get over this initial hump. The question is, what happens when it isn't the dollar rising, when it's the dollar collapsing? How much gold have you got to hedge your positions with to hedge your your your wealth? Because essentially the inverse of what we'll see ultimately is not just a war event, a black swan event, that's a war event, but what happens when the whole system, you just talked about the impossibility of funding this this this debt? So when it all implodes, and it will, and 100% certain it will. So, and the dollar goes to nothing as benchmarked against gold. You need your gold. You need the hedge. Thank God it was there to to insulate the institutionals. These are all long now. Everyone's long and and ex- except for the poor few people who now think it's all over.

>> Well, and I mean, that's a mic drop moment right there. And then I just want to stress to everyone listening is Andrew is very smart and says things that that are are profound, but if you're not really paying attention, you may miss what he just said there. What he really said there is that this this liquidity event is not real strength. It's forced selling, and everything settles in dollars, giving the dollar this big bump. But if that were true, that the dollar was it was strength and not the forced selling, then why are the treasuries selling off? Because the treasuries, to me, are the bigger function of of of the whole problem. And that is if people are selling treasuries when they always would run to them in periods of strain like this. That's the key. In other words, typically you'd see dollar strength and treasuries being purchased, yields falling. Now we're seeing dollar strength because of forced selling and yields rising at the same time they're dumping treasuries too. That to me is something that needs to be thought about as well because again, the West has lost trust. And I think trust in the treasury market, um, where you're seeing this kind of fiscal irresponsibility and weaponization as we've seen before, is something that we're already well past. So what he is basically saying right now is we've been given a gift. At least that's the way I interpret it, and I feel the same way. Um, and these things, you know, I think you have to see them for what they are. And if I were wrong about that, then why do we see all of these deliveries? Why is China buying a record amount of silver the same month it gets hammered? And those are the reasons why what Andrew just said right there is exactly spot on. Couldn't agree more with you, Andrew. And, um, you know, I appreciate your your perspective very much. I think it's it's spot on. That's why you're one of my go-to sources. Every day I try to keep up with what you're doing.

>> Andy. Of course. And and likewise, and and you're you're a sage, and and it it really is the years of experience. And you're a straight shooter as well. Um, everyone can trust you. They've known you for years. You've been around forever in a day. And and you're still actually looking pretty darn good for it, I must say. Goodness me.

>> Appreciate that, buddy. I do. And you know, we met in the Seavoy once, and that's where I'd like to buy you a beer again, right around New Year's. And, uh, I I'll tell you, um, you know, the the it's our time, Andrew. It is our time, and it's it's never been more important to let people know what's really happening. And, um, I I have always felt that you can run a business and do right by people and do the right thing. They don't have to be mutually exclusive of one another. At this point, as long as I've been online, and everyone knows me, I would do nothing but be honest. And if I felt that this was the time to sell and to move to another asset class, I would tell you I would. Uh, and quite frankly, I think it's absolutely insane to even think that at this point. In fact, I I see nothing that has changed, only gotten worse. The only thing that has changed is the price has been suppressed in a in a last-ditch attempt, if I had to guess, to get these banks that have been profiting from a short position for years to make the West and the Western system, the bond market, the currencies seem stronger than they were, and to protect the military-industrial complex because of the massive need of silver and munitions and high-tech aerospace, things like F-35s and stealth bombers and all of these things that need lots of silver. These things are now changing, and it is physical possession that will win. And when no one stands for delivery, you can suppress the price. It's just like Bernie Madoff. When no one asks for their principal back, you can win. You can run a Ponzi scheme, but a Ponzi scheme breaks when everyone says, "No, no, no, I need my principal back." And that's why you've seen metals in backwardation for a long time instead of contango, because the the the desire for immediate delivery is far greater than the promises of paper at a higher return. And I think it's just beginning, and it's accelerating. So, uh, I'd love to come back on your show, Andrew, and pick up where, uh, we left off. Hopefully, not too far down the road, and and see if we're right. I have a feeling that those analysts at Goldman Sachs who are talking over $6,000 silver by the end of the year, we'll be closer to being right than where we are today. And I'd love to come back and chat about it somewhere, uh, later on down the road this summer and and see how right we are.

Well, I hope everyone is positioning for exactly in that wet vein because that's what the big boys are doing. That's what, uh, the the the global south is doing. That's where the liquidity is. And, uh, yeah, so Andy, thank you so so much for joining us today. Uh, valuable time. Uh, I would suggest people listen three times to what you just said.

>> You're the only person I come on where I'm not asked questions, where we just talk. And that's why I love coming on this show, Andrew. And anytime anytime I'm happy to jump on under any circumstance, but until then, I'll be looking forward to picking up where we left off.

It was surely timing today. Thank you so much.

All right, thanks for joining us on this episode of Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money. And a huge thanks to Andrew Maguire and our featured guest Andy Sheckman, uh, for really cutting through the noise and sharing insights that you just won't find anywhere else. Now, if you like this episode, make sure you're subscribed. Turn on your notifications. You know how to do that. Give us a thumbs up, by the way. And make sure you never miss out on one of these live episodes. Don't forget also, uh, to share episodes with people that you know that need to hear the real story behind the headlines. And we're back soon with more hard-hitting truths from inside the precious metal space. And until then, thanks for watching Live from the Vault. And we'll see you next week right here. Bye for now. [music]