Transcription
These players just might be cooked in fantasy football at this point. We're going to talk to you about them, tell you what you should do with them, and give you our panic levels on them.
Derrick Henry, for me, five out of 10, right smack in the middle. I am mildly concerned about Derrick Henry. And here's why. We just talked about this off camera with Derrick Henry. The problem has been the last couple weeks. The Ravens have been playing from behind. As it sits at this moment, that doesn't look like it's going to be changing anytime soon because their defense is cheeks. I mean, I don't know if you guys were watching the game and you saw when they put the defensive ranks up. Um, they showed up, it was humiliating for the guy. Showed the defensive coordinator and put up their defensive ranks overall passing and rushing defenses and they were 31st or lower in all three categories. I mean, it's really bad there.
And so, because of that, when you have a bad defense, typically you're going to have an offense that passes the ball more because the fact of the matter is you can't just grind it out with Derrick Kenny on the ground when you're down 20 points every game or even down seven points. And so, well, while I'm not concerned about Derrick Henry, the guy, I'm not concerned about Derrick Henry, the talent. I'm not concerned about his age. I'm not concerned about his workload. My panic on all that is zero. My panic on Derrick Henry in terms of the type of plays that the Ravens are going to be running rest of season. Now, one and three, they are going to be very desperate at this point. My panic meter is right there, smack in the middle. Derrick Henry is going to have some good games. Derenary is going to get in the end zone. Derrick Henry is going to have some plays where he rips off huge runs. He's going to score 12 plus points, probably 20 points because of that. So, that's going to happen for Derrick Henry.
But now for three weeks in a row after he absolutely tore it up in week one, I mean you you you've seen I don't think this happens three times in a row rest season where he scores 10 or less points. Two, 10 and seven points and again only 11 12 and eight carries in these games. Cleveland the best rushing defense in the league. Detroit, they got in a shootout with Detroit and what happened? They stopped throwing the ball and Derrick Henry fumbled the ball in that game as well. So that kind of hurt him as well. Kansas City, they got way down. I I mean again if if this keeps happening it's going to be tough sledding but like for example next week against Houston he should have a bounce back the week after that he has the Rams that's going to be tough it's so my I mean my panic meter is at a five here it's a healthy panic at this point like mine's a mine's a six or seven you when you're talking about a uh a guy that gets the volume that Derrick Henry does get or you thought he was going to get um which is 20 plus carries that's not even happening right now because they they are constantly down because of how poor their defense is. And he's not your stereotypical bellcow running back. Even though the volume is reminiscent of a bellcow running back, um that's not necessarily the case when you're talking about snapshare. Jonathan Taylor is the example of a bellcow running back. And the reason that raises a guy like JT's floor so much higher than someone like Derrick Henry's at this point in his career is because JT when he's not getting carries has the opportunity to get what? Checkdowns. And that has been a result that's that's resulted in JT not getting any single digit games in the first four weeks of the season because he's had a lot six seven eight points from those checkdowns alone. Got to stop saying and that's huge. You know what? Well, the young people it's their fault that they sitting over there going like this every time you do it. I don't care. So that's that's the difference between a guy who's a true bellcow versus a guy like Derrick Henry because on passing down sets, Hill is in there and Hill has been producing in garbage time because they're just slinging it and checking it down to him at the end of the game. And again, you're you're not going to see a guy like Hill produce like that every single game. His is like crazy fluky production. But with Henry, I mean, I'm very very worried because at this point, Henry is getting close to losing me weeks and he's only won me one week. He won me the week against you. Were all your guys disappointed? And from here on out, I mean, Judkins is winning me weeks at this point. That that's that's where we're at in the Flock League right now. I have one star running back and it's not Derrick Henry, folks. It's Quinn Sean Judkins. So, with Derrick Henry, I mean, you're going to see that snap share be right around 50% and with Cooper Rush probably through the by-week, I would guess with a hamstring injury, they'll probably try to keep it safe with Lamar Jackson and try to make an end of season run. Uh I'm I'm big-time worried over the next couple of weeks.
So Jameson Williams is a guy that I don't think either of us had a ton of shares in uh over over this year. I think I ended up drafting him like once in the sixth round in in one of my leagues cuz he was a good price, maybe two. Um J has had three single-digit games at this point, one double-digit game. I feel like we have this type of video, this type of conversation with Jameson Williams every single year, which is why my panic meter is honestly going to be like a three or a four. Um, probably a three realistically three for me as well. So, with with J Mo, this is what I I'm sorry. I'm sorry for those of you who are panicking on Jameson Williams. This is what you signed up for and this is what you always signed up for. He has not changed his role in this offense. This is a boom bust, deep threat, not going to get consistent target volume and will have really, really good days and follow it up with trashy weak losing days. Th this is the reality of Jameson Williams in the Detroit Lions offense. It's a great situation for them schematically. It's not for consistent fantasy production. He's a great flex option. He's a better flex option than what a lot of people have the luxury of starting in the Flock League, for example. But with JO, like don't don't make a stink when he has two back-to-back single-digit games. I I'm honestly kind of tired of hearing about the J Mo panic. Like it's all going to come out in the wash at the end of the day. And guess what? He's going to finish as probably a low-end wide receiver, too, because that's what he is. Gibbs Ammani have great days. Leaporta, when he has a touchdown, has some nice has some nice days. Honestly, at this point, I'd be more worried about Leaporta than I would be about Jamo because Jameson Williams at least he had eight targets against Cleveland's defense this week. And he only hauled in two, but if he hauled in one more, he'd have double digits. If he got a touchdown, he'd have double digits. He's got Cincinnati next week. We're going to be flying high in the sky with Jameson Williams after he has 20 points next week against Cincinnati. The people are so up and down with J Mo constantly and I'm just make my panic meter a one for JO because I knew what he was. I'm not going to panic on JO because you expected more from him and that's where I'm at with him right now. So I I have a question for you. I just want to pick your brain here. Are you surprised that he's having like single digit games like this? No. Okay. Just want to make sure. Yeah. Yeah. My panic meter is probably a three. Like I mean I wouldn't say I'm panicked. I'm more just disappointed. Like I would have wanted a couple of big games from Jameson Williams. We've only really had one big game. I expected to be disappointed about JO and I'm not even there like six points in your flex spot is not going to lose you a week. And so like they just paid this guy bajillion dollars before the season. Like it's not he had like Nath said he had eight targets this week. Cleveland's a tough defense. One of the best defenses in the league and he has Cincinnati next week. The dude's surely going to pop off. I'm not panicked on J Mo either. I think you kind of hit the nail on the head there. Um, you were smashing Danielle in the head actually. Um, and I, uh, I I think that JMO is actually going to be just fine here.
So, Alvin Kamara. So, uh, Kamara was unfortunately somebody that we were like, "Yeah, you know what? After I think it was after week three, we were like, "You was it last week we had Kamar as a buy?" I think it was last week we had Kamar's a buy. Unfortunately, I'm a little bit more concerned this week um because of the share that you saw Kendra Miller have from the rushing attempts perspective this week. Yeah. Oopsies. Alvin Kamara. I mean, Oopsies is right, which it happens. Like I I I thought at this point, you know, I think it was after week two we had him as a buy um after 13 and 16 points there when in reality he could have been a sell high candidate looking uh retrospectively here because since then he had two targets in week three and he's had five targets uh in week four as well. And this is just not the Alvin Kamar target volume that we've seen last year. Here's a stretch for Alvin Kamar. 9 8 7 11 9 and six targets for him. He's not gone over six this year. In fact, he's only gone over five twice. He's had two targets in two of his four games. And the reason that this is concerning is because the, you know, the less targets that he gets, the less opportunities he has to actually make big plays in this offense. It's a very bad offense altogether. Not to mention when you're talking about his attempts last year, yeah, sure he had games where he had 11, 13, and 10 attempts, but he also had games where he had 29, 17, 16, 23, 17. That was a stretch there from week 9 to 14. And so you're not going to see that anymore with Alvin Kamar. And and the reason is, you know, from a from a rushing perspective, Kendra Miller has actually been a decent rushing running back. So on the ground, you know, Kendrick Miller on 11 carries today, averaged 5.91 yards per carry. And Alvin Kamar wasn't inefficient against the Bills defense, 4.6 yards per carry. But the fact of the matter is, I think Kendra Miller in the coaching staff's eyes in New Orleans has played well enough to kind of cut into Alvin Kamar's workload now. And what this reminds me of, and I said this in the in the uh playbook, is it reminds me of the Seattle backfield where I don't think Kendrick Miller is going to be startable, but he's going to maybe get a touchdown on week to week and he's going to have double digit points. And so you'll be like, I wish I started him. And people are going to start Alvin Kamar, but there are going to be weeks where be like, why did Kendrick Miller just get the touchdown over Alvin Kamar? It's it's they're different players, but situationally, fantasy-wise, that's what it reminds me of. And that's why I didn't draft one. I I did not draft one Kenneth Walker or one Zack Sharper this year. Maybe I drafted one Kenneth Walker. I don't I didn't um Kamar Panic Meter seven. I think we're flip-flopping with Henry and Kamar. I'm going to go I'm going to go five. Why aren't you Why aren't you at Why aren't you more concerned about Al? Uh because I will be in a couple of weeks after I see the stretch. I want to I want to see a little bit more because we've got the Giants, New England and Chicago over the next few weeks, which you've seen highly highly productive running backs um go up against every single one of those defenses. Hampton just popped off against uh the Giants. You saw Jensy just pop off against Chicago. And those are young guns. Those are rookies. Like they're new, they're fresh. I get it. But even last year with Kamara, you you had a couple of stretches where you were like and they weren't they they weren't the floor that you're seeing right now. and that's why my panic meter is a five it's high but again I just want to see a little bit more it's not enough for me to like sell off Alvin Kamar right now I want and I'm probably like actually I think it's probably too late to sell to be honest with you we shouldn't have had right but you know again my logic goes back to this Chris in four games has one touchdown Alvin Kamar in one game or four games has one touchdown the offense is just it's just bad so his ceiling fing his cap, but at the point where his receptions are as low as they are, his floor also kind of bottoms out a little bit. And where Kendrick Miller, I mean, like there's just a lot of pretty much every angle I look at. I mean, five five is not not panicking. I mean, I'm I agree for Kamar, it's absolutely panic time for five. So, like he's got to get it% like so, you know, with Kamar, that's where we're at with him. Yeah, he probably wasn't. What I'm saying is I don't think he's I don't think he's dead dead in the water for like the rest of the year. No, he's he's not I think the panic is relative to where you drafted him, what you expect him to be. Yes. for a third round pick in fantasy football. This is panic time big time. So that that's kind of where I was at with Alamar.
So Brock Bowers, talk talk about big time panicking and w with investment like level of investment with Brock Bowers. You're talking about an early to mid second round pick in your fantasy drafts this year and he's just been straight up lackluster since week one against New England. 1589 and nine points um in the first four weeks of the year. 885 and six targets. you are getting better production from Tyler Warren right now who is an eighthround pick in fantasy football. This is why we do not like investing in the high-end tight ends that go in the first few rounds of your fantasy drafts. The the the floor for these guys is too low and the upside of the guys going later at the same position are too high relative to like the price of these premier assets. And Brock Bowers is one of those guys right now where I will attribute honestly some of this I think is to the knee injury that he suffered after week one. And you saw I I think a direct correlation between what his production was in week one against New England. He had the knee injury that cut his day short and he hasn't really been the same since. I do think that's very relevant. He clearly has not been as explosive. My question is, how long is this knee injury going to linger? And how how of how long is this knee injury going to bug him to a point where he's not the Brock Bowers that we know from from his rookie season? I mean, even last year, you saw a little a little variance in target volume. You saw it really go crazy like in the last half of the year. But look, with Bowowers at this point, if Jens is going to keep going off and having like 20 plus point games, that severely caps his his touchdown upside, I think, in the red zone if they're if because they didn't have a guy to give the ball to at 20 carries a game like they do with Genty this season. Um Trey Tucker is producing and getting opportunity. Jacobe Myers is doing Jacobe Meyers things and Gino is constantly under pressure. Another big thing that's honestly huge, their left tackle uh just went down at the end of that game against Chicago and it looked like a significant knee injury. He got carded off the field. So that just is that's going to that's going to rush Gino and his progressions even more. They may have to really really lean on Jensy and try to kind of establish the run before they do anything in the air. My panic meter for Brock Bowers is also going to be a seven here. I don't know if you even have the upside that you had in Brock Bowers last season with 150 targets. I don't think that's going to be the case this year with an Ash and Jensy on the ground where they're going to a Pete Carol offense where they're going to establish their identity through the run game. That's not the same as last year when they were constantly down. They're competitive in most games here. So my mine mine's going to be at a seven here with Bowers. I would probably go six. I'm I'm panicked as well, but I I'm again, this is one where I can't honestly say to you that I'm panicked because I drafted one Bowowers this year and I only drafted him because he fell to me in the third round and I was like, you know, we're fading Bowers so much this year. I if I'm an idiot and I'm stupid and I'm wrong about it, I want to have one. I diversify a little bit. So, I have one. Had to diversify. Had to hedge me potentially being an idiot, which I am about half the time. But with Bowowers, I mean, we were pretty consistent all offseason that we did not think Brock Bowers was going to be worth it at the price that he was being picked at. Now granted, and a lot of you are gonna say this, and it's a totally valid point. He has been injured and he did hurt his knee, and it he's clearly not at 100%. He's clearly not, but the fact of the matter is, I mean, he's only capped out at eight targets this year, whereas last year he had games of 13, 14, 10, 16, 14, 10, 12 targets even in his first two weeks. Eight and nine targets. But you're talking about five and six targets in his last couple weeks against inferior competition, by the way, with with with Chicago. And then, you know, a good game against Washington the week before that. But yeah, with Bowowers, I mean, if you are a Bowowers owner, if you picked Bowers in the first, you are at a 10. If you picked Bowers in the first, you're cooked. If you pick Bowowers in the second, you're at an eight. If you picked him in the third, you're probably at a seven. If you picked him, I mean, and and that was as low as he went. Bower's owner should be, you know, seven out of 10 panic. Eight out of 10 panicked. I think Bowowers, as he continues to get healthy, will play better as the year progresses. And he clearly is a a special talent. Um, for a star of his caliber, he will have good days. I'm not saying he's not going to have no good days, but the reality the reality is, I mean, he's not only replacement level for, you know, any like among all positions, wide receiver, you know, running back, whatever. He is replacement level tight end right now. Yeah. I mean, you are better off starting guys off waiverss that are out producing him right now. So, I I I it's it's it's tough. It's tough. I mean, Brenton Strange outproduced him this week. So, with Bowowers, I mean, if you if you drafted him, yeah, you should be you probably panicked. And you know, maybe you're panicked because of the injury, but the injury definitely plays a part and you can't ignore it even if it wasn't something we didn't see coming. And so with Bowowers, I mean, at this point, you probably have to hold. I think I don't know, man. I I feel like, let me just look real quick. Let's do a thought experiment here real quick. Let's go to the overall rankings on expert average on the site and see where who you can get from a skill position standpoint for Bowers. Uh, he's surely going to move down this week, but he's ranked next to Amarian Hampton, Josh Jacobs, Roma Dunce, Drake London, Ashton Genty, Devonte Adams, Garrett Wilson. So, I guess my advice to you would be this. If you can get out on him for those prices, you're doing it this week. You are moving off of Bowowers this week. Because here's the thing. What if you move off of Bowowers and he ends up scoring 14 points a game for the rest of the season? You have guys off of waiverss that are scoring 12 points a game right now. The opportunity cost of doing that is two points per game. Whereas if you upgrade to a for example Dvonte Adams and you're flexing Devonte Adams now the opportunity cost on a per game basis at that point of getting a Dvonte Adams getting an Amaran Hampton getting even an Omech or something like that Kairen Williams the the opportunity cost there or really the opportunity gain is going to be like four or five points per game. I mean those are elite flex options in fantasy football you win with your flex spots and so if you can take Bowers stream a tight end instead and flip him for any of those guys I would do it. That said I understand why the panic meter is a little bit high on Brock Bowers at this point.
Let's talk about T McMillan. Somebody else we had in the buys video last week. This one I'm not regretting. This one I'm I'm not regretting even though, you know, he only scored you 10 points. The thing with T is in most casual leagues you got T in the sixth round. And so you're flexing T McMillan. He's a fine flex play. Now, if you're in a sharp league and you took T McMill in the fourth round, yeah, it kind of sucks because he consistently is getting eight plus targets, which the target volume there is absolutely fantastic. The problem is again this week, eight targets, only caught four of them for 62 yards and no touchdowns. in a game where they got blown out by a mediocre Patriots team. My panic meter for Tap Mill is probably a four. Um, I can't say I'm not panicked at all because I would be lying to you if I said that I wasn't concerned that this production wasn't going to go up. But again, this is a guy playing his I I said this all in the B video, so I'm not going to beat a dead horse here. This guy playing his first four weeks in the NFL and he's getting eight plus targets a game and he's scoring in double digits almost every single game. He scored not a touchdown yet in his NFL career and he's still scoring you at minimum. He did not score a touchdown today and he got four passes and he scored you 10 points. He's not losing you weeks. If you have TC Mill in your lineup, he's not the reason you're losing your fantasy football lineup. But when he goes off, he will be the reason or a reason that you win your fantasy football matchup. So four, I want to see I don't know even I would probably say three. I mean mine's mine's a two or a three. I mean I was going to say I I just I I think T McMillan is a sneaky buy. We've talked about him in previous weeks about being a potential value um if Adam Thelen can produce at high levels in this offense, and we've seen him do it with Bryce Young at the helm, T McMillan absolutely is going to pull this off. It is literally a matter that the targets are already there. It's just a matter of when the touchdowns are going to get there and they're going to come. I mean, yeah. Yeah, they're do not come. They're they're building chem. I mean, him and Bryce Young are still building chemistry. Bryce Young was better at the end of last year. Maybe that happens again this year. Who knows? But I I with Ted, I I have a hard time getting super riled up and panicked about him to be honest with you.
Oh boy. Now on the other hand, oh boy. Oh boy. Bring that panic meter up to a 10 with Lad McConi, baby. We are now I mean we we are a quarter of the way through the season and Lad McConi is the wide receiver three in that offense. Keenan Allen's volume has not really changed. I I mean he's had 10 seven 11 targets. Lad is a step down from that. 957 and six targets. And honestly, I I mean, a big part of this is just Quinton Johnson looks like Nico Collins right now in a better offense. He's the freaking truth. And he I mean, he looks legit. And and ironically, the the Nico Collins comp is like so good because Nico Collins had that third Nico Collins had that third year break. I was going to say it's more the career trajectory that's the career trajectory. Yeah. Right. And players and and like I I don't know. I mean, that target volume is ridiculous for QJ. 13 targets, 7.5 yards per all the matchups where you would have thought, okay, this is lads coming out party, it would have been the Giants and 100% would have been the Giants. Um 13 targets, eight receptions for QJ 98 yards and a touchdown. I mean, with this target volume, his production is sustainable regardless of whether he scores a touchdown or not. We have Washington, Miami, and Indie over the next three weeks. My panic meter is a 10 for Lab Manki because guess who's going to be scoring all those points against Washington, Miami, and Indie? probably QJ because he's been doing it for four straight weeks to start the season. And if it's not QJ, then it's going to be Keenan Allen because he's been doing it before Lab Mani has been able to pull it off in this offense as well. Your number one corner schematically have been on Laboni and they probably are going to continue to be because he is still a threat. But I mean, how with second round investment for a guy that is producing at wide receiver four levels right now, hardly flexible. Hardly flexible and losing you weeks at the moment after a two-pointer against the Giants, an eight-pointer last week against Denver, a nine-pointer against Vegas. I mean, this is one of the biggest fantasy football busts through the first quarter of the season. I don't think he ends up as one of the biggest busts at the end of the year. I think he's going to be respectful. I think his production is going to be respectable, but I think he's going to be somebody you'll be like, "Yeah, we could have drafted him in the fifth, sixth round, and maybe he would have been a return on investment at that point." Because you drafted him in the second round. Cory drafted him in the second round of the Flock League. And he was freaking out about it. I should have known right then. I should have known right then. That's when I should have known when he gave him Garrett Wilson comps. Yes, that's that's I should have known then. And even if you got him in round three, which is probably where most of you did get him in your casual leagues, you know, he wasn't a bad pick based on what we knew last year. Unfortunately, like you just can't predict. Number one, you can't predict Keen Allen being good again, which is crazy, but he is good. His shoulders look weird, dude. The the the he's got spikes on his shoulders, but he's very good still. He's still getting seven plus targets a game. And you just can't predict Quinton Johnson here. And QJ, again, this is not like, oh, QJ, yeah, he had another touchdown, so he's going to see some classic region. No, no, no. He had 23 points. Take away the touchdown, he had 17 points. And why? Because he had 13 targets. He's not getting, oh, they're not throwing the ball down the field 13 times to QJ. No. 7.54 yards per target here for QJ. His yards per target has gone down every week of the season because they are using him. Justin Herbert is using him as they they use him on a quick slant today. Like, oh, QJ quick inside route win right there. Boom. Middle of the field. I'm like, who is this guy? But that's what he's doing. And realistically, when you have QJ this good, you have Keenan Allen this good, there's gonna be an odd man out. I think right now the odd man out is Lad. I think eventually the odd man out could be Keenan. I have a harder time believing that it's going to be QJ because QJ's playing so well, but it could be QJ at some point, too. So, to Lad's credit, he is always on the field. Keenan Allen is the third there. Um, which again shows you schematically the true one there. Well, maybe it might be transition QJ, but like in their offense schematically, I do think it is lad. Uh it is but but again they can they're kind of one. They're so they're so different. You can't really say one's the one schematically because Lamon is he's playing more slot. He's in the middle of the field. Honestly, another reason that I'm so concerned too is is with Hampton popping off the way that he is right now too. That's just that's again that's just less and less opportunity to have explosive plays to have uh red zone opportunities because Hampton is now the guy. He's going to get all that. And they've never had a running back like that in a Herbert offense, in a Jim Harbaugh offense with, you know, Lad and QJ now producing like we are getting to a point where more more guys are producing than we expected in this offense. But it very much has capped like it it very much has capped with H clearly with Hampton, QJ, and Keenan. All three of them producing are producing and it's at the expense of Lamoni. So there will be an odd man out for sure. And right now it's I don't think it will be allowed the whole season, but right now it is. And and fact of the matter is we are four weeks into this 17 16 game season. You are a quarter way through your fantasy football season and he's done nothing for you. Like this is bad. It's a bad situation for for a lot of mankers. Would you say that the best two Chargers to own right now from fantasy football perspective are Marin Hampton and Quinton Johnson? Oh by far when you're talking about price it's not even a question. Just making sure. Just making sure. I I have gone from hating watching the Chargers to liking watching them again. Would you say that the best pick in the flock league was on? I would say it probably was. I mean, it's better than a lot of the honestly. It legitimately was probably the best pick in the fifth round. Well, yeah, I looked I looked at the board. Roman Dunes was the best pick in the fifth round. Ah, that's very true. Yeah. And it looked like it reached the time a little bit. So, yep.
Make sure you drop a like on the video. Make sure you're subscribed. Um, if you play fantasy football, let us know who you're panicking on or or do you think we're crazy about any of these cuz I mean, we could be crazy about some of these. I will say from the panic meters that we've done, the panic videos that we've done so far this year, most of them we have been appropriately panicked on so far. And so the guys who we haven't been panicked on, for example, guys like Kyron Williams, guys like, you know, Justin Jefferson, those guys have bounced back a little bit, guys like Trayvon Henderson, guys we haven't panicked on, a lot of them, like T. Higgins, Travis Hunter. So, we'll continue to put out this video until, you know, we're done panicking and half of the league is not even playing anymore because they suck in their team's bad. But, u, make sure you drop a like for us. We appreciate you guys. Thank you so much for watching. We'll see you later. [Music]