Transcription
All right, guys. So, today we're going over comping, which is uh one of the most important subjects in 2025 at the moment. So, I'm really excited to share with you what I've been experiencing in 2025 and the strategies that have been working out for us. But before we do that, I just want to reiterate um both the offers that Land Insights and Rocket Print has going on. Let me pull these things up.
All right. So, LAN Insights, as you guys know, you need to book a demo call to become a user. So, you can't just sign up for Land Insights. You have to book a demo call. But that in that demo call, it's free. Um, it's about 30, 45 minutes. and we'll actually go through the entire product with you and export um a county, a high demand county, and actually give you the exported records. So, just like what we did in the webinar, exporting the data um scrubbing, landlock, flood zone, all that. Um, we'll actually do that with you live and give you that data and you can actually go mail that. And some guy actually, uh recently, I think he made 40 grand off the the data set that we gave him for free. So, uh, yeah, you'll walk away with something cool even if you don't end up, uh, becoming a user. But if you guys are interested in Land Insights, you can book a demo call at landinsights.co/apply. And anybody on this webinar, uh, we're giving away 25,000 free credits, which is 5,000 worth 5,000 exports. So, um, if you guys become a user and you are part of this webinar, we'll give you away 5,000 free exports inside Land Insights.
And then Deb, do you want to go over the RPM offer as well?
>> Yeah. So, what we're offering is on your first um entry-level package of 5,000 letters, we're giving you free color and and $50 off, which is a $300 value. on the larger packages that are on sale, you're going to save between $1,200 and $4,800. So, you can call in or you can go to um the landing page, which is rocket um rocketprint.com/landinsights, and it'll have those sale prices in there for the larger packages. But on the 5,000, we never give free color, and so we're giving free color, which is worth $250 and $50 off, so a $300 value. And then we're going to be talking on Thursday about the online products. We're also offering 20% off the online products. So, um, the entry-level package for three months of online products runs $2,500. So, you'll be able to pick it up for 2,000.
>> Nice. Yep. And if you if you guys end up pairing both these offers together, we're going to give you another 10,000 free credits uh, inside Land Insight. So, it actually be 35,000. So, if you guys just bring that to the demo call, we'll we'll even it we'll sweeten the pot even more.
All right, so let's go over comping. This is one of my favorite subjects to talk about in land just because a lot of people mess up with it and it's a lot easier than you think. And I I've done several webinars going over comping and I always get um a lot of great feedback from everybody and I I think I can put people on the the right page uh with this subject. So in 2025 comping's different, land values are different. As a land flipper, what you're selling these properties at is much different than what it was selling for in 2023, 2024. But what I've noticed over the last two years is land values haven't really changed at all. They haven't gone up. They haven't really gone down. For the most part, they've remained about stagnant. And uh what I've actually noticed is you need to price much more aggressively than you needed to last year.
So, I'm going to show you just a a quick image. I'm going to sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh share my screen and this image is going to help you understand kind of where properties are selling at in 2025.
Okay, so this is a bell curve model. Let's if if you guys understand statistics, cool. You guys understand what a bell curve is. If you don't, let me explain that. Let's say we're looking at 10 acres in a random county and we're looking at the comps. So, the price per acre on the low end is here. So, let's call this $5,000 per acre is what some comps are selling at 10-acre comps. And then up here, this is like $20,000 an acre. This might be the property that had a house on it or maybe um it was a commercial property. That's kind of your your higher your high outlier and your low outlier. So the high outlier is like a commercial property. Maybe a house seeped into that land data set. And your low outlier is something that's swamp land or maybe it's landlocked completely. So basically this maps the range at which properties are selling that are 10 acres in this county. Right? So most people would think, oh, if I get a property under contract, I expect it to sell at the average of all those comps in that data set. And a lot of people in this space, a lot of people over the last three years, that was that was true. Sometimes they they could list it at the average um of comps in that area and they would get away with it. So, a lot of people are they're comping their deals like, "Oh, I'm just going to take the average of all the comps in the data set." And in 2025, that's just not true anymore. Okay? In 2025, your land, it's usually going to sell it at in this range right here, the lower end of the spectrum, kind of the lower average, the lower quartile if we're talking statistics of the data set. If I'm not saying you can't sell them at this price, I'm just saying it's going to take a while. But if you wanted to sell your land quickly as you're a land flipper, you make money by turning over capital as quickly as possible, you're ending up more here this year. And I've seen this consistently across many dozens of listings that we've had up this year. Everything's selling very low and we have to keep price dropping consistently. We have to price aggressively and we need to be the most competitive property on the market in order for it to sell. Last year we were able to get away with this. This year we're just we're not really anymore. Okay.
So, this is just a good image to show you guys before we start and jump into actually pumping our data set and pricing it out. Uh, but if you guys have any questions, feel free to put it in there. Okay, so I'm gonna hide all of our images so we can make this screen larger. Oh Okay, let me know if that looks good to you guys. Okay, perfect.
All right, I'm going to go over a few questions just before we jump in. Um, what is the price point difference between the average what percentage of market value or average listed price would listing be at? Okay. Um, I think my I'll be able to answer you guys' question when I go through my whole process. I don't have a exact percentage. I don't have Oh, you have to multiply it by 0.2 of the average. No, I don't do any of that. It's literally I'm doing it by eye. I'm just It's an It's an art, but you just need to have the prior education to go do this. So, I'm there's no golden ticket equation that you're going to do and you guys are going to see how how I pull it off and you'll be able to easily replicate it. So, again, there's no golden ticket. There's no crazy equation I'm doing. It's all very very simple. So, I'll go over it in this webinar right now.
All right. So, I'm going to open up the data set that we exported last Tuesday. I'm gonna bring it up in front of you guys. Okay. All right. So, this is our data set. Uh, if you guys remember correctly, we exported two zip codes. So, I'm going to split those up because, um, one zip code might be priced differently than the other. So, I'm going to go ahead and split these up. if you discover um if that they're a low genie. Well, actually they they were a low genie. So, we can price these together. I remember um when we when we chose this county and we chose the zip codes, we chose this county because it had a lower genie. So, for the most part, a five-acre in one zip code is going to trade at the same value as a five-acre in the other zip code. So, I can actually keep this data set together. But if you discovered that there was a low genie uh which we went over in the Tuesday webinar and pricing is just not homogeneous pricing in one zip code in the other. I would recommend splitting this up into two data sets and pricing them differently. So for this webinar since we had a low genie in this county we can price these zip codes together.
So what I'm first going to do um there's a lot of fluff in this data set and you can remove a lot. I'm not going to remove it in here, but you just need to consider what you want to keep in your data set when you upload it to your CRM. Uh, and what you want to remove and the references that you're putting in your your mailing template. So, very important things. We always want to keep we always want to keep our APN. We always want to keep our acreage. We can get rid of calculated acreage. I don't use it. I go off of acreage because this is the deed acreage. This is the acreage that shows up in the deed. um partial square foot. I don't care about that. And I I can go on uh further and further. I like to keep latitude and longitude just in case we want to look at it somewhere else. Maybe Google Earth, but landing sites attaches to Google Earth. So, honestly, you don't really need it. But anyways, you guys want to go through this, remove anything you don't need, anything that's repetitive or anything that's useless. But what I'm going to do is I'm going to add two columns. I'm gonna add three columns. So the first column we're gonna add is going to be estimate value. The column after this is going to be offer price. And then this is just kind of a kind of a notepad for me while I while I do some calculations.
So what we do or what I do and what I teach everybody to do when we're comping out a a spreadsheet is we comp the most common pieces of land that you're going to see comps for. So it's very rare that you're going to see a 7.3 acre comp, but it's very common that you see a 5 acre. So, we're going to comp the five acre and usually the ne next most common piece of land that we see selling is a 10 acre. So, next we're going to comp the 10 acre and then we're going to comp a 20 acre. So, we we'll probably just comp this 22.7 acre property and then we'll comp a 40. Another very common piece of land. We'll comp an 80. And then let's see. Let me short sort the spreadsheet first. Sort it in ascending acreage. So the highest property is 100. So we always want to comp the the one at the very end. And at that point, we have multiple different comps that we're very confident in. And we're going to fill in the gaps. And what I generally do is I linearly fill in the gaps. So I'm going to evaluate the five acre and I'm going to evaluate the 10 and I'm going to do a linear equation that connects the value between those two so that it linearly rises in that valuation. Okay, so that's how I comp my spreadsheet land uh values as acreage increases it follows an exponential decay curve. Um, if you want to look that up on Google, you'll see it. basically um values they they drop significantly when you're at like the 5 to 10 acre range and slowly like as you increase your acreage like 100, 200 acres the price per acre doesn't really change at all but it changes pretty significantly at the lower acreage marks. So eventually it kind of flattens out and it's all that big acreage is about worth the same price per acre. But a uh a 5 acre and a 10 acre, they're going to be drastically different in a lot of cases in that price per acre valuation.
So to comp our spreadsheet, what we're simply going to do is we're going to comp the five acre first. So I'm going to go find the link to the comping tool. So if you see this column right here, it's comping link. And there's a link to land insights to the comping tool which we can go plug this into. So, I'm going to open it up here. And we're just going to comp this five acre. Okay. So, we just got a five acre piece here. You'll see in the top left corner, it's five acres. All right. We can overlay anything we want, but like we're comping a spreadsheet. So, we don't care about flood zones. We don't care about wetlands, any of that right now because we're comping for all of the five acres that we have in this spreadsheet, right? What I like to do is I like to add the zip code layer. So, you'll you'll see this uh as you zoom out, you'll see this is the zip code. So, we're we're inside the zip code that we pulled. This is the entire zip code. We kind of want to be looking at pricing inside the zip code, but we're also in the county in this situation. So, it makes more sense to just comp by the county because we discovered that it was a low genie. And it's a low genie because it's a more rural market. There's no major cities in here. There's no major topography going on out here. That's why it was a low genie. So if the zip codes uh the values change, the five acre in one zip code is priced differently in a five acre in the other zip code, you would want to use this zip code layer and comp within that zip code. Um, but in this case, we have a low genie for the entire county. So we can just comp the entire county.
So what I'm going to do is I'm going to start looking at comps. So again, you guys remember the bell curve, what I showed in the beginning of the call. land is selling on the lower end of the spectrum. So, we want to be ultra conservative. Everyone thinks I'm way too conservative. I'm comping it way too low. And then they always come back to me, oh, it actually sold at that price that you said it was for. So, I may be showing you guys comping that's way more conservative than what you're used to, but you will soon realize for the most part it's accurate. I'm not saying I'm completely accurate, but I'm more conservative than I've ever been, and I'm usually on the dot with these comps in today's market. So, we're looking at five acres. I'm going to adjust my range that we're looking at four to six acres. Okay? And I'm going to start looking within our county. So, green is a sold comp, blue is for sale. Let's see if there's any under contract. Under contract is pink. I don't think there's any under contracts in this data set in this county. Um, so I'm going to start moving around. So, what I'm first looking at is I'm looking at comps, sold comps, so the green ones. And then I'm going to come up with my conservative valuation. And then I'm going to pair that with what's for sale right now. Because in at the beginning of the of the webinar today, I said you need to be the most competitive land listing on the market in order for these to sell. If there's one other property that's listed more competitively than yours, that one's going to sell first and then yours is going to sell. So, it's going to take longer for you to sell your property. So, we always have to cross-reference those four sales after we look at comps. All right. So, I'm just scanning the spreadsheet. If you guys want to look at the comps, you can. Um, I'm seeing a very low price per acre right here. $1,600 price per acre. There's probably something wrong with this property. We can go view it and see if there was something wrong with it. I just have a feeling this is an outlier. There's something horribly wrong. Mini farm. It doesn't look like something's wrong, but I'm going to remove it from my spreadsheet because I'm not seeing any other comps sell at $1,600 per acre. And it doesn't make sense why a 6-acre would sell that cheap. 6 acres is worth more than that. And what you're seeing is consistently we're seeing like $5,500 per acre, $7,500, $7,500 here. You got to zoom in to see them all. $4,000 here. $70. That's for sale. So disregard that for a second. $5,500, $7,500. So basically I'm seeing a range on the low end of um like $4,000 to $7,500. That's the low end. I didn't if you guys noticed I didn't even care about this $9,600 per acre. That's we're not going to get that. Maybe if we list it for two years and we find the right buyer and the neighbor wants to buy it, we might get that. That's why that's sold so high. There's probably a reason. Maybe there's a house on it. Maybe it's commercial. But if you see this, don't expect that your land's going to sell at that price. You You're just dreaming at that point. I'm only looking at what's low. The first thing I looked at was this $1,600 an acre piece, but it's an outlier. In statistics, we remove outliers. So, that's the one we removed. And then I started seeing $5,000 an acre. I saw $4,000 in there. So in my head, I'm thinking probably $5,000 an acre is very conservative. Maybe we can get $6,000. Okay. So I'm thinking $5,000 to $6,000. That's kind of where we were at in that bell curve that I showed you guys at the beginning of the call, the lower end of the spectrum. And again, I have no magic percentage that I'm multiplying by. I'm just going by I. It's an art. Okay. So, $5,000 to $6,000 an acre is what I'm thinking.
The next thing I'm going to do is I'm going to look at what's for sale. Okay. We're looking at what's very low on the market for sale. I'm looking at blue only. This is at $6,500. Okay. So, that's the lowest one I've seen so far. Zoom in here. $7,800, $6,700. Still the lowest I've seen is $6,500. And we're going to look at that real quick. So for sale looks like a nice property. So we need to undercut this. We need to be more conservative. So you can probably get away with $6,000 an acre. Um, to be even more conservative, I'm going to say it's worth $5,500. That's kind of in the middle of what we were seeing all those comps at on the lower end. So like the middle of the lower end. So I'm going to say $5,500. That puts us in a great price point to undercut what's currently listed on the market. We would be the most competitive. So $5,500 is my valuation. $5,508. So we're just going to multiply that. I mean we can just do this. So, as you can see down here, uh, we had manual comp. So, we didn't select anything yet, but if we select this right here, it's going to automatically calculate it based on the acreage. So, we said $5,500. It's not exactly $5,500, but that's the calculation. So, $27,833 is the value. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to go here. $27,833. That's our estimate value of the 5 acre. Okay. Now, I'm going to add the dollar signs here. All right.
And then what we can do, mail nowadays, offer price, you can't really get away with 30% offers anymore. Your offer for the most part needs to be like half or maybe more. And if you're willing to do double closes, if you're willing to do the double close strategy where you list a property on the market before you purchase it, you can offer up to like 65% maybe 70% in some instances of the value and get away with it. And that just makes you more competitive. Today, there's a lot of people mailing. There's a lot of people that messed up their offers and you have to deal with it because people are uneducated and they're they're mailing crazy high offers in some cases over what the market value is because they're not being conservative because they're going off of the average of the the sales comps in the area when it's just not realistic. So, in this case, I'm just going to do 50% um of the offer. We just do equals that times 0.5. Okay, that would be our offer. And guys, do not send offers with these exact numbers with decimals. You look like a robot in your mailer. And when you send an offer, it looks like that. Do an average. Average that out or round it. round down and then I think we can go for what it is.
So, Ryan, there's a question here. There's a few, but um it's the question is how do you balance pricing high enough so someone will contact you versus pricing conservatively.
>> So you always want to comp the value conservatively because that's probably what's going to what it's going to sell at. And then you got to make an offer based on that where you have margins. this deal. I would do this deal at 50% of value because we're doubling our money after realtor expenses, after uh title expenses. You're not actually doubling your your money. You're getting like probably an 80% return. So, um again, we can't get away with offering eight on this. Let's let's see what that would look like. that if we sold the property at $27,000, our realtor and title expenses are going to make it a negative deal. We're going to lose money on that. So, you have to have margin on these lower end side. But, as the valuation of land goes up more, we can increase that uh offer percentage. Let's say on a property that's worth a million dollars, we offer 70% of value, $700,000. there's $300,000 of spread on that deal. If we did a double close or we did seller finance, that's probably a deal. So, you can get away with an a higher offer percentage on those more expensive pieces. But on the lower end, like this, your title expenses, it's probably going to be like four grand, maybe five grand. Your realtor uh expense is probably going to be 8% of the sale. So, there's not a lot of room to work with. And I'm going to go over that in a second, how we can underwrite these and bake in those expenses. So on these lower end deals, I'm going to do 50%. You can probably go up to 60% on this and have an okay margin. That's about a 10K spread. It's not a great deal. It kind of sucks. So I'm saying 0.5 on this. All right.
So the next thing we do is we just go to 10 acres. All right. So, we're going to pull up Landon's or pull up a link again. We're just going to take this 9.88 acre cuz it's close. All right. So, now we've got 9.9 acres. I'm going to set my range probably like 13 and eight just to try to get in as many comps as possible. We're going to zoom out and we're going through the same process. So, I'm going to go a little quicker this time because you guys are following me. You kind of understand my mentality going into this. So, I'm looking at sold comps first. Seeing a $4K an acre sale, $6,000, $6,000. Remember, I'm not even looking at this. I don't care. I don't care about 9 grand. We're not going to get that. When we see $4,000, $6,000, it's more likely we get that. Uh, seeing $51,000. That's got to be a commercial or a house. $51,000. Another probably a house in there. $3,800 an acre. $3,800 an acre. So, I'm seeing about $3,800 to $6,000 an acre on that low end. This one's under contract at $9,000. Probably was listed for a long time. Yeah, it was listed for 191 days. I'm not saying you can't get these values. You just got to put it on the market for a long time to get those. And I don't like that. I like to sell my properties within two months. So, in order to sell it within two months, you got to be down here. You got to be in that $4,000 to $6,000 an acre range. So, this one sold at $5K. This one sold at $6K. I saw multiple four I think it was $4,800. $4,000. $3,800 an acre here. $3,800 an acre. I think that's the same duplicate one. This one's under contract at $3,600. $3,700. This looks like it might have been a subdivision. When you see these all side by side, these subdivision listings, so this guy did a minor subdivide most likely. We'll look at the listings in a minute. But if you see multiple uh properties about the same size, all next to each other, listed in the same area, it was probably a minor subdivide. And these people when they do minor subdivisions, their goal is to sell these deals as quickly as possible. So, usually these comps are the best ones to go off of. We're seeing consistent sales at this $3,600 to $4K an acre range. It's probably worth that as a flipper. We expect that it'll sell quickly if we price it at this. So, let's just confirm that it's part of a subdivision. I'm just going to read the description down here. Yeah, track 10. So, there's about 40 more acres adjoining available. So, he sold all these about $3,800. I'm going off of that. That's conservative. It's probably worth $3,800 an acre if this subdivide guy uh sold these at at this amount. He was selling them quick. So, that's what he's ending up with. You'll you're seeing days on market. 41, 79. This is under contract. We don't have the amount of days because it's under contract. This sold at 106. So it's conservative. You look at the $9,000 an acre comps. It took hundreds of days to sell those. It makes sense. So at the end of the day, I'm just going to comp it as this amount. So I'm going to select this comp. It's going to manually calculate it. So valuation on this is $38,314. I'm just going to take this number. I don't like decimals. makes you look like a robot on your letters. And what we're going to do is plug it in. Paste special. Boom. All right.
So, you guys are probably wondering, how do I evaluate these? And then I'm going to show you why I put this little notepad section in here. There's an Excel equation that does it. I I don't know how to do it to be honest. Some somebody helped me in my the last webinar trying to figure out what the equation is that has the cheat code for this, but I'm going to do it my way. So, we got to calculate the slope. So, we're doing a linear equation between these two points. So, to calculate the slope, it is rise over run. So, our rise is the difference between the values. So that's our rise divided by the run, which is how many acres we went. So this minus this. So here's my magic equation right here for slope. Okay, so our slope is every acre it increases by $2,147. Okay, so to drag this equation, we do equals this minus the previous uh acreage times uh the slope. So we're multiplying the slope by the x point and then we are adding the previous uh value. Okay, so now we have the valuation going up with the amount of acreage we increase by and we can just drag that and you'll see that it lines up linearly. Oh, where am I? I need to multiply it by the actual slope number. So, we can just put in 2,147.75. Now, it's going to go boom. And now you'll see it just linearly connected the dots. So, that's how we come up with our values of all these. We can literally just drag uh the same equation, right? You'll see that the offer goes up with time. So to connect the rest of the dots, the next thing you're going to do is you're going to comp basically a 20 acres. So 19.87 acres. You're going to comp the 40 and you're going to comp the 80 and the 100. And then you just fill in the gaps. You do the same equation. So we're doing linear between each point. So the next one is going to be the linear equation between this price and the 20 acre price. And then you just run that same equation. But guys, like I've I've been comping deals for five years now. I've tried every method. I've tried a crazy scientific engineering method. At the end of the day, you just got to dumb it down. Make it really simple. And this is the simplest way to do it. You don't overthink it that much. And it it works out pretty well. And by doing the five, the 10, the 20, the 40, that kind of creates your exponential decay curve. And then the the linear just kind of connects the e exponential decay. It's not an ex or not a linear uh increase in value. It's exponential decay. So this is like the Leah method. This is the coined method that I created and it works out really really well and very scalable. So that's how we do it. That's how we comp out um our mailers. And let's say this is worth um $500,000. You're going to want to adjust your offer price or your offer percentage on this slightly. So on this deal, I would like to offer probably if I'm doing double closes, maybe like $330 grand. So that's about like 65%. I think. Yeah, pretty pretty close. So, yeah, I increased my offer percentage slightly by 15% because we're dealing with more expensive property. There's $175 grand of spread on this deal. Like, you don't need to offer 50%. You still got a crazy spread with these margins. You're probably going to get a funder to do this. You could buy it on seller financing. You could maybe get a loan on it. You could double close it. There's many different things you can do with this and get that $175 grand margin. But on these slimmer deals, you're going to want to offer half because there's not a crazy amount of profit margin.
All right, guys. So, I'm going to go over some questions here. Is your response rate significantly lower with this pricing? I mean, who cares about response rate if you're offering market value? I mean, if you want to be a crazy salesman and offer market value and then try to renegotiate down, go for it. That's just not my method. Response rate's going to be much lower with this pricing. But if you want to get away with offering market value and feel bad about having to renegotiate every deal and go through that hassle, do it. Fine. Your response rate might be slightly higher. But at the end of the day, response rate, it usually comes from choosing a market that nobody's touching. Um, it comes from having a good letter and it comes with good timing for that land owner. Some guy might offer $30 grand to a guy last month and then I come in with an offer at $15 grand. He may have gone through some financial situation before then and now and he ends up taking my $15,000 offer even though it was half as much as before. I see this all the time. This happens a crazy amount of times. Response rate comes from choosing the markets that nobody works in. And it comes from timing. So if I were you, if you're worried about response rates, choose markets where nobody's going. that is more secretive like these zip codes. Nobody thinks, "Oh, I should go to Carroll County, this zip code." A lot of people think, "Oh, I should go on the outskirts of Nashville like within 30, 45 minutes." Everyone in their mom's mailing those places. But if you can choose these honeyhole markets that nobody's thinking about, your response rate is going to be high and you can get away with these offers. That's the method that works. You have to do more research. You have to get more deep in the weeds and it'll pay off. But if you're sending offers at 40% of value in Raleigh, North Carolina, nobody's going to respond to you because everyone in their mom is offering way higher than that. So mailing in 2025 is a market that nobody's going after. Have a really good letter, really good template design, and uh price conservatively.
>> Yeah. And just to add on to the response rate, you know, we talk about this a lot, but you guys aren't selling ice cream cones. So, you don't need a really high response rate. What what you need is a hot lead because you can get things to respond that that you're never going to close. And that's kind of what Ryland's saying. So, while it's really important to have response and to know what your response is, it's more important to know, you know, what your margins are and what kind of money you're making on on your marketing.
>> Yeah. I mean, and you'll get more responses if you do a postcard, a neutral postcard, but you have to deal with crazy crazy tire kickers. And in my business, all we care about is pre-qualification. I don't want to talk to anybody unless they're qualified with price. I'm very heavy with texting. I've been very heavy with mail. I've always gone back to pre-qualification. I've tried neutral. I've tried talking to sellers on the phone before we even talked about price. It's a waste of time. If you have all the time in the day, sure, go do it. But we don't. We're running an entire business. This is not just an acquisition business. It's an entire business with many moving parts. you ought to qualify your leads with uh price in my opinion before you talk to them. But sure, there's people that crush by doing cold calling, neutral, talking to the people um without qualification. People crush doing that. It's just not what I do. So, take it with a grain of salt.
>> Yeah, it's a totally different game. You know what you're talking about. And usually they have very large teams. It's usually they're not doing it themselves either. if they're if they want to scale and make any money at it because it takes a lot of it takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of energy to do that and it is a game and some people really enjoy that game but it does take a lot more resources.
>> Yep%
>> All right, Erin asks, "So you're never pulling the Redfin data and analyzing it." Erin, there's Redfin data inside uh land insights. It's Redfin and Zillow data. So, if you view enough, you'll see a Redfin comp every once in a while. So, these are all Zillow, but there there's Redfin if you look around. So, no, I'm never opening Redfin. I'm never opening Zillow. I'm just going to the links that Land Insights gives me. So everything is in one place. The way we designed the comping tool is we don't ever want to have two tabs open for comping. That's taking up a bunch of head space. You're not being efficient. You're going back and forth. You want it all in one place so you're efficient. So we brought in both Zillow and Redfin. So you choose whatever acreage you want, you're getting all of that data set in there. So it's much better actually than having Redfin because you have Redfin and Zillow. And if you guys notice, those are plugged into different MLS platforms. So, you might get something in Zillow that you don't have in Redfin or vice versa because that MLS, that regional MLS may not be active in one of those platforms. So, I've been using this before we released it. I think we released it like three or four months ago. I've been using this for like a year and a half, maybe two years now since we uh developed it internally. It changed my business. Like it it's crazy the amount of time it saves, the amount of efficiency you have now. Like you can really scale your business and you can comp so quickly and so scalably.
All right, How many offers to a deal are you seeing with this kind of pricing? I know you're not doing this for flips right now, but I'm curious if you know, guys. Do you want to uh put in what you guys are seeing uh mailers to deals? I've seen like 4,000 recently from efficient people. Sometimes 3,000 per deal. Um people who are not being very effective, some people will blow it. Maybe they'll do like 10,000 and not get a deal. So, if you're efficient, you're choosing the right market. Like I've seen pretty consistently like 4,000 to 5,000 mailers per deal. But back in the day, back in 2021,
>> I was getting like a thousand mailers per deal. It was crazy. Sometimes even lower.
>> Yeah, we're saying 3500, but you know, there's a lot that goes into that. That's just an average. you know, if you're going for larger parcels, more, you know, the value and and the honey hole and all of that go play into it. So, there are people that are that are doing like 6,000 to get a deal, but they tend to be six-digit deals when they get into those large more mailings per deal. Um, so they're still their ROI is as good, if not better. But on average, we see about 3,500.
>> Yeah. Yeah, Brian, definitely use land insights over Redfin. Like we designed this to completely remove that platform. So, uh, definitely rewatch this. Never pulling Redfin data or analyzing it, just these links. Uh, Ari, or sorry, Patrick asked, "How many offers to Oh, we already went over that." Aras, what do you think about sending mail out late in the year? Holding through winter could be rough. Uh, depends on where you're going. So, if you're in northern United States that gets snow in some places, I'd avoid it. But if you're mailing to places that uh have access year-round and doesn't get crazy weather, you can access the roads. I would not hold off. I I never hold off my marketing. People always ask, "Do you shut it down in the winter?" No. I will literally scale. I have never slimmed down my marketing. I've always scaled. So, I I don't recommend you you tame it back. Maybe if you're new and you've got three grand and if you lose that three grand, you won't do the business. I would hold off. But if you're running a legitimate business, do not ever scale back your marketing. It's a machine.
>> Yeah. And it's funny like when the holidays come, people say, "Oh, I don't want to I don't want to mail in the holidays because it's busy." and and honestly I hear often that it's a opportunity because um especially with generational properties that kind of thing the families are together so it often creates opportunity during the holidays when they're together if you mail to them during that time. So I know one person who swears they have their best acquisition month in December and that's what they say drives it.
>> Yeah. uh fill series. Yeah, that's what it is. I just don't know how to use it for some reason. I'm going to try to figure that out, so it saves me a ton of time. But the equation that shortcuts that uh that slope equation, it's called the fill series. So, just watch a video on it, maybe figure it out. But I I couldn't figure it out for some reason. Uh Johnny, thanks for sharing that equation.
All right, So, uh, I'm going to hold off on questions. If if we don't get to these, our salespeople at Land Insights can help you guys. So, if I can't get to everything, um, feel free to reach out to them. But I'm going to go over deal comping now cuz deal comping is a a different different game. Okay. So, I'm just going to pick a random property in our spreadsheet and comp that deal in depth with very good expertise. All right. So, I'm going to pull this random 7.9 acre. Take a look at it. See what we got here.
>> Well, there's a question here. I was curious about too. Does your database update every 30 days?
>> It updates every day.
>> Oh, every day.
>> The comping updates weekly. But, uh, the ownership information that updates daily. All these comps though, that's weekly.
>> So, this is very fresh comp data.
>> Yeah. Most property data is a 30-day So that's amazing.
>> Yeah, we we have a lot going on u in terms of updates. So we want to keep it as as active as possible.
>> Okay guys, so we're just copying this deal um a random deal I chose and we're going to start looking at our blood zone, our I'm just selecting all of these. So, as you can see, they they own just this property. It looks like they don't own anything next to it. And shoot that no credits. I will show you guys this um when I get in my other account, but we just released this product. It is insane. So, I'm going to show that at the end of the call and you guys are going to see like the magic we did. But literally, we have AI analyze the deal and tell us like everything about it. Tell us about that market, tell us about stuff on the uh property itself. It'll talk about the stream, the trees, and it'll talk about like, oh, there's a Walmart a mile away. It's going to be a really good opportunity to buy this. So, I'll show you guys that at the end of the call, but I'm going to comp this now in depth. Um, so first things first that I see here, this commercial activity, it's loud. Looks like nobody really wants this. And they're driving, all these trucks are driving through the property to get to it. So, we're going to have to put a discount on this. And we'll go over that discount in a minute. But, let's comp it for what it is first. So, just like we did before, we're going to set our uh range. So, 5 to 10 is like right in the sweet spot of this. We'll also see less than 30% plug zone, less than 30% wetlands. The owner lives out of the zip, county or state. So, he lives far away. It's not in an HOA. There's no structure. He bought it more than 5 years ago. Usually, if somebody buys it uh more than five years ago, they're very likely to sell it. uh people that buy it within the year very unlikely to sell it. Goes over sell to rate. We already know it's got a good sell-through rate. So we're going to look at it. AI is coming at 43. I think that's I don't think that's conservative enough. Again, like this is helpful. Maybe somebody calls you and you want to like talk ballpark numbers. This will be helpful. But if you really want an in-depth deal review, you cannot go off of this. You got to go off of your personal intellect, your feel. AI can't detect. This is here. We need to adjust it by 40%. No. Like, you have to look at this. All right. So, we're zooming out. We've got a 5.4 acre. I sold at $5,500. This one sold at $6,400. This one sold at five. Or this one's listed at five. Let's look at this real quick. It's actually under contract at five right now. So, that's a good sign. If I remember correctly, that's the cheapest. $5K. Yeah. Lower end of the spectrum. I'm seeing $5K. Not Oh, this one's listed at 47. Shoot. Or is that outside the county? That might be outside the county. Yeah, I'm going to go off some of stuff over here. And guys, it's okay to go outside the county when you're close over here. You got comps here. People that live here probably work in this town. So, it's okay to use these comps if they're outside the county in my opinion. Just uh make sure it's not a a place where maybe the county might change the value of the land. And in that case, it would be like a a major metro. Maybe you're in like uh a major city in California or in a major city in Florida. Like that might affect the value, but we're in rural Tennessee. It does not really matter. So, we can dip from these comps. So, this one uh under contract at five. This one sold at $5,500, sold at six. We can probably get away with like $5,300 to be honest. So, it's probably worth like $5,300. So, I'm going to take I'm going to select this. I'm And I'm going to select this. And this valuation takes the average.
which ends up at 5,300. Oh, it just automatically calculated. I took the high and the low and then it came up with 5,300. So, that's what we think it's worth. That's what we think normal land is worth. But, we have to make our discounts.
This crazy lumber company going on is going to hurt the value of the land. Honestly, I think pretty significantly. I think like 25%. I think it's going to drop that value by 25%. So, let's say this guy called me. I offered 20 grand on this piece. Um, I'm not going to say it's worth this yet. I need to make some alterations because these trucks are moving through here causing up a bunch of noise. So, I'm going to adjust the valuation. So, what we do is we add an adjustment and we do minus 25%. Save adjustment. Now, it just marked it down. So, now it's worth 31,500.
And what a cool thing we can do is is we can bake in expenses. So let's say we a realtor charges 6%. We put that in there. We can also say oh what if he charges 8%. We can see what that expense is going to be if we sell it at this price. So this is 6% generally like you'll see 6%. Don't do 10% realtor commissions. If you're going to self list this on the MLS then you can just remove this. Put a miscellaneous cost for what the uh for sale by owner brokerage fee is if you want uh estimate closing cost. I just usually put like three grand for the most part. We can get away with three grand. Sometimes cheaper, sometimes more. Depends on where you're at. And so if we offer 50%, which is $15,788, this is how much power we're going to end up with at the end of the day with all of those expenses included. So you would think, oh, I tr I offer $15,788. I'm going to double my money because it's worth this. No, you're not because you have these expenses. So, it's important you bake those expenses into your final offer.
So, this guy reaches out, you say, uh, or he says, "You offer 20 grand. I'm going to accept that." You look at the property, realize it's worth 31 grand, you might have to jump back. You could also, and in some instances, if maybe it's worth more, you can increase your offer if he's tire kicking and wants more. So, this helps you adjust your offers correctly, comp the property, and re realistically see what your pipeline profit is. So, that's how we go in depth. Um, that's how I review them in uh detail. And there's some things that are cool up here that I like to see is um next logical sales.
So, this looks at everything that's listed on the market right now, and if it's ranked high, um, it's going to tell you, oh, like it's probably going to sell pretty quickly. So, we're at that 94.8% mark. Um, if it is at this price, it's probably going to sell pretty quickly because it's looking at stuff that's currently on the market right now. It's kind of like what Zillow does. Zillow will look at a property that's listed on the market and it'll tell you, "Oh, this one's probably going to sell next." Like the likelihood that it sells. Zillow shows that we have a more in-depth one that looks at your individual property based on what you comped it at. Uh, another cool thing where there we go.
Another cool thing is the owner's return on their investment. So, if they bought the land and we have data on what they bought it for, it'll show them how much they're going to profit by us uh offering our amount. So, in this case, the owner's losing $129,000. So, he's probably not going to take that offer. If he reached out, he's probably pissed off. So, this property, I'm trying to figure out why he bought it so high. >> I have no idea. Maybe it's commercial. It's Yeah, he bought it for $161,000 10 years ago. He got ripped off. Yeah, I have no idea. I don't think it's uh we can put on the land use filter. Yeah, it's just vacant land. See, this is residential. This county is all messed up. Counties don't like to correctly show their zoning. See, these are commercial. There might be a slight opportunity that this is commercial probably because I'm assuming this is commercial. If they have this commercial and this commercial, it's likely this is probably commercial. So, I would check with the county zoning in this case. Maybe it's commercial and it could be worth even more. And at that point, you need to go to LoopNet, uh do a commercial analysis, maybe reach out to a commercial realtor. Okay?
And then, uh, let's say you lock up the deal. um, you think it's worth 30 grand or maybe you think it might be worth more than what you comped it at. Uh, I always recommend getting realtor opinions before you buy anything cash. Like I like to see at least two. I always get at least two realtor opinions. So what we'll do is we'll look at this county, Carol County, Tennessee. We're going to go into our realtor database. and we're going to go find a realtor to talk to out there to figure out what he thinks the value is. So, we're going to unlock the report and if we have any double close agents in our database that work out there, uh, these are people who said, "Hey, I'm willing to list a double close if you have anybody uh in the land space that wants to list a double close." Unfortunately, we don't have anybody in this county that does double closes. For the most part, though, most of Tennessee, we have a double close agent, uh, just except this Carol County one. So, if you wanted to do double close, you would reach out to the person here, but we don't. So, we need to reach out to the realtors that sold land out here. So, we have the brokerage and we have the per agent that works for that brokerage. So, we're always going to filter by the agent themselves. We're going to find the top performing agent in the county. And we can just filter it by clicking on it. We'll see Timothy, he's got 16 he sold and 12 active in this county itself. So, he's crushing in this market. He's got a hold of everything. He probably knows the value of everything in this county. So, we're going to want to call him up, say, "Hey, I got this deal. What do you think it's worth?" Just take his phone number and give him a call. That's it. If he doesn't pick up, call this person. If she doesn't pick up, call this person. We are all easily accessible right there to double check your comps before you push this to title and purchase it. So we want to go in depth and we want to get local opinions of value. Really go through with that purchase. All right. Um, that's about it guys. If you have questions, put it in here. I'm going to try to uh get some credits and show you guys the deep AI analysis. So, just hold on a second. They're also asking if you can um address non-disclosure state copying. >> Yeah. All right, I'm going to pull the APN and county because that uh link doesn't work because I'm on a different account right now. So, Carol County, Tennessee.
So guys, one cool thing uh we've added, I'm not sure if it's live yet. No, it's not live yet, is we're going to show you guys um you're going to be able to set your marketing goal. Um, so if you guys have a goal of a monthly target of 20,000 mailers, we're going to take your exports that you've exported for the last 30 days and tell you if you're on track to hit that goal. It's very important you guys say like, "Hey, my goal is to send 15,000 letters because I want to make this amount of money." So, in order to stay on track with that, we'll actually uh track it and you can adjust what that monthly number is. So, it's a cool thing we're adding. All right, let's try out this AI analysis. And guys, it's important as well, I didn't go over this. Uh, this guy owns five other properties. So, we can see everything else he owns. Uh, so it's very important you look at that in case maybe there's other deals that you like or maybe there's an adjacent property to it. Looks like uh he owns this as well. So that's maybe why he bought it so expensive. But you always want to check that because we want to see everything they own. Anyways, I'm going to comp it. >> All right. So, it's just going to take a few minutes. So, in the meantime, I'm going to uh answer questions. Leslie asked, "Why is the AI comp so far off the manual comps selected in some cases?" Um, in some cases, like we we made that equation conservative. Um, but sometimes there's outliers that that affect the value. So, at the end of the day, like you want to manually check everything. And in some way, like I almost call the manual comp tool an AI tool because it's it's just so easy to use and it connects the dots of your perspective and data easily and readily available. So, it's just the perfect synergy. It's almost like it it's not. Um, so in some cases, yeah, it's it's going to be off. In other cases, it it might be spot on. But on that deal, like we had to adjust it because it was next to that lumber place. But the AI valuation, it was actually pretty pretty accurate if it were a normal piece. All right. >> So before you text, do you the sellers use this method as well and add to the CRM? I I don't understand that question. I don't think that's Ari. I think that's someone else using Ari's name. >> Scott asks, "How to comp hygien?" Uh, break it up honestly into a zip code. I think that's the easiest, most scalable way to do it. Zip codes. I've realized let's say a county is hygien um, you bring it up in a zip codes. I've realized like zip codes were created like the lines the outlying lines of zip codes were created based on how easy it is to route mail and on the population. So how easy it is to get mail to everyone in this whole area uh with the resources they had. So generally like pricing is pretty consistent in a zip code unless there's a crazy metro going on and a bunch of commercial activity going on. It might be off or maybe there's like a bunch of hillsides in the area that might affect it. In that case just use a polygon. Just draw out a polygon inside land insights of a region you think has consistent pricing. But the whole reason we choose low genie is because it's easy. We want to avoid trying to price these markets that are all over the place. But if you choose a high county or a hygienic county, zip codes is a pretty good solution that's scalable and somewhat effective. Von asks, you mentioned that you bake in the closing costs into the low-end deals. How do you do it? Basically, with uh you can use that calculator to bake in those costs. uh replay link. We are sending those out. You should have received those. If not, email helloinsits.co and they'll uh they'll email that if you missed it. But uh just check back on your emails from us. How current is your data? Data is updated daily. Uh ownership data, MLS data, the Zillow, Redfin weekly. Okay.
So, non-disclosure state pricing. So, I'm going to go over this real quick first and then we'll go over non-disclosure state pricing. Okay, so we just got a crazy AI analysis of this property. So, 7.9 acres along Highway 22. The lot is roughly L-shaped with generous exposure along a major road and is relatively open. Minimal tree coverage. Land appears mostly clear and well-maintained, suitable for a variety of uses. According to the county assessor, there's no current structures and no formal zoning restrictions providing flexibility for future development. Uh, the land use code for this is 8001. So, general vacant land, residential act or light commercial purposes. So, we might be able to get away with commercial uh structures. There's no visible homes, no visible signs of mobile homes or pools. Vegetation. Uh, 90% of the area consi consists of cleared field or grass. There's no trash or debris. 594 ft of road frontage along Highway 22. Uh, Highway 22 appears to be paved highra road suitable for a variety of uses including residential commercial access. So, AI thinks uh there could be a good commercial opportunity because there's a lot of uh vehicle traffic through this area. Utilities, there's no visual evidence of utility infrastructure, electric poles, water meters, receptic systems. So, it's trying to look for uh any of those. So, there may or may not be power. We can look maybe see. Looks like there's a power line here and here. So, there is electric. Um, but it it can't find anything confirming it, but we just looked and there's electric. Only 2% of the property has wetlands, which is good. 0% flood zones. It goes like very far in depth if you want to read everything. Surrounding area media. The media area is commercial industrial facilities to the north, iron fuels to the east and south, woodland southwest. It's just telling us everything that's around it. Lot is suitable for single family or small subdivision development due to road frontage minimum slope. So, it says like there might be a small sub minor or sorry, a small uh subdivision opportunity. Because the road frontage and there's no crazy slope and there's utility access. So, you might be able to get away with the subdivision and then it talks about the subdivision strategy. So, it says while the parallel is below 20 acres, it's not best for a large scale subdivision, its shape, and frontage, lack of zoning, and overall size could still support a minor split or multiple home sites with good access options. So, it's telling us like what it thinks we can do if we did a subdivision. Uh, nearby amenities. Walmart, five miles away. Shell 4.5. CVS 6 miles away. We've got retail. So, this is just telling us like, hey, we can put this in the listing description. There's a Walmart 5 miles away. Uh, there's a gas station 4.5 miles away. >> There's a shopping mall uh seven miles away. And then it talks about major metros. We're about what, an hour and a half east of Nashville, which is good. A lot of people like to buy land like under two hours outside Nashville. So, there's that population looking for land out here because it's cheaper land. It's more affordable. Uh, we got dining, entertainment, it it goes on and on and on. Like and you can take this, put it in chat GBT, and build out a listing description for you for MLS and give that to your realtor. So, super cool stuff.
All right, let's jump into comping a non-disclosure state. So, I'm just going to go pick something random in Texas because Texas is a non-disclosure state. If you guys don't know what a non-disclosure state is, um, in Texas, the county does not show you what land sold for, the price land sold for. So, we're in the dark, but that doesn't steer me away and it doesn't really change our comping strategy at all. A lot of those comps still slip through the cracks and we make assumptions on what it's sold at. So, I'm going to go over that in depth. So, I'm just going to choose a random property. Let's say right here. All right. We're going to choose this. That's too big. I don't want a massive one. Choose something small. All right, let's choose this one. This is 9.9 acres. So, I'm just going to comp it. I'm going to remove all these filters we got right now. All right. So, we've got 9.9 acres and we're going to start looking at columns. We're literally like not really doing anything more different, but I'll explain my thought process. So, I'm going to go 7 to 12 and start looking. All right. So, this one, the 7.95 acres under contract at 22,000. Okay. So, now it actually sold since we're a week late. It was under contract. It actually sold. So, we can assume that it sold at 22,000 acre. Um, this might be the same one with a different platform. Yeah. So, this is the Zillow comp and that was the Redfin of the same property. So, it sold and you can look at the price history here. So, it was listed for a while starting see from 2023 and then it uh went pending at 180 grand. So, we can assume it sold for 180 grand, which is uh 22,000 price per acre. So, sold comps and under contract, they go through uh under contract's going to be more accurate because we don't know exactly what they sold at. So, maybe it it didn't sell at that price or maybe it did. We're just assuming, but if we make enough assumptions with enough data, we can evaluate the piece of land. So, we're going to look at more in the area. This is listed at 47. This is under contract at 25. This is listed at 25 for sale at 47. This is listed at 17. Why is this listed so low? Either they're really competitively priced or there's something wrong. Maybe there's no road access. But I find it hard to believe that's listed so cheap. We're going to go out even more. 16k on this thing that's way further away. Uh, our piece is probably a little more expensive than that because we're closer to this town. Uh, 20k 20k honestly. Like probably 20k is the the value here. Things really don't change. Like the listings still go through. It's just not all of them they get get through. But if you pair your assumptions of the sold comps with what's active on the market right now and make sure you're listed lower than everything that's on the market right now, you're competitive. Then it nothing changes. So, it works for non-disclosures. It works for disclosures. It it doesn't really matter as long as there's uh Redfin and Zillow data. Than some places like there's nothing that happens. Nothing ever sells and you can't evaluate it that way. So, that's when it would be difficult. Maybe you're in a very very rural place where we haven't had a sale in like two years. You can't go look at the land that sold in uh inside land insights. You can't look at that ownership data because the states don't uh release that. It's not legal. So, then you can't evaluate it based on the ownership data. Oh.
All right, we're running a little over. I'm going to go ahead and and wrap it up here. Guys, if you have questions about the platform, just book a demo call. Like, you're going to get a lot of lot out of it. Uh, you'll get a thousand free leads anyways. So, I recommend you guys do it. Maybe we can see an opportunity for you that works specifically for your business. So, I always recommend it. Um, yeah, that concludes the comping part of um our webinar. And then on Thursday, we're going to be going over how to run this business more on autopilot and how to scale it and get yourself out of the weeds. So, that's what we'll be going over Thursday. So, I look forward to that. But, appreciate it, guys. Sorry I couldn't get to all of the questions, but uh definitely the team will be able to help you all out. >> Thanks everyone. >> Thank you. >> You're serious about flipping land for predictable profit and you want to plug into the exact system our students are using to close their first deal or their next 10 deals? Then tap the video right here. It's a free 15minute strategy call where we're going to pull back the curtain and show you the exact LEA system that our students are using right now. We'll show you the entire process A to Z on how you can start landing deals in the next 90 days or less. Slots tend to fill up fast. Grab your spot now. And I look forward to showing you the exact LEA land flipping playbook that I've been using for the last 6 years and that nearly 500 other LEA members have used today. Click it and I'll see you inside.