Transcription
Markets ripped higher into the close; however, it wasn't enough to beat a four-week losing streak.
A lot happened today. Let me just break it down for you a little bit at a time. So the morning started off—the Futures were green because Senator Schumer said that he wouldn't fight the GOP on their upcoming spending or funding bill. That gave the market a little bit of hope that not everything was going to be a huge fight. Ultimately, what we saw here going into the close was bargain hunting. A lot of companies have gotten cheap; a lot of companies have gotten oversold. And because we didn't see strong institutional selling today, people began to do some more nibbling.
Now, the fact is, this is a very, very uncertain market, and yesterday's video was titled "Recession." Now, some people take the title of the video, and they believe that I'm immediately calling for a recession; however, that was not the purpose of the video. The purpose of the video was to tell you what would have to come into order for us to get a recession and what I thought would happen next in the market. Now I want to recap briefly on that and talk to you about it. I highlighted that the Spy would very, very likely climb and back test resistance up above before it could justify a larger selloff—a lower low. So at the moment, what we're seeing is consolidation at the lows.
Now, what we didn't get was a V-shaped recovery. We saw this week turn very, very choppy. We saw the possibility of what I referred to as a dead-cat bounce—gain a little bit of relief in Friday going into the close. So if we had ended on the lows, it would have told us that Monday was going to be very, very rough, but the market turned around slowly.
Now there are some positive dynamics occurring. There is talk between Russia, Ukraine, and Washington about a possible uh, peace deal—uh, currently established as a tentative ceasefire. But when that does get worked out, it will give President Trump some credibility, and people will begin to look and say, "Okay, well, hey, maybe he can work out these tariffs as well." Positive momentum that the market could build off of, build off of from these extreme lows and this harsh pullback. And so what that could mean is that we're going to slowly build up and move towards testing that higher resistance. It doesn't mean that we are completely free and clear from a downtrending market or a market that could tip over into a recession or a bear market. We've obviously been in a bear trend ever since December of 2024. I've talked about it repeatedly—no volume, no, no buying interest, and no momentum or lower momentum as we climbed into the tail end of 2024. And ever since then, all of the volume and all the momentum has been to the selling. And so for the last couple of weeks, it's been very clear that puts were going to print the dollars. So we're going to continue to take that idea forward into next week, which means that when the market turns south, if it turns south, we're going to be looking to take higher-risk positions on puts to the downside because that's where the volume has been.
Now I know that people, people get a little confused—are we bearish next week? Are we bullish next week? I am optimistically bullish on having bought the bottom; however, I don't believe that the market gave us a very strong relief rally. Now the type of rally that you're looking for is a huge spike in volume, and you're looking for this sense of getting locked out like you missed the bottom, and people begin to flood in. That's not going to happen until we get better news, better catalysts—we get one of these tariff deals worked out—Canada, Mexico, or China. But instead, we added a fourth tariff war, World War tariff; we added to it this week with conflict with the EU. So the markets are not going to buy heavy in that environment, and I'm just going to tell you straight—I'm holding risk positions, and I did add a little bit here on Friday. I added to a couple of my key positions that I talk about regularly in the Stocks With Josh Discord; however, I did not do heavy buying because at this moment in time, as I looked at the charts, I see some sideways consolidation forming. I pointed it out in my live trade session with the Stocks With Josh Discord in the morning that a couple of stocks had inverse head and shoulders patterns, and some had cup and handles. So some might break out early. We obviously know that Nvidia is doing very, very well. I'm going to comment on that here in a little bit, and I'll show that chart. But the bottom line is that if we've got the left shoulder and the head formed on an inverse head and shoulders pattern, guess what comes next—the right shoulder, which means that once we hit these necklines, it means that you're likely to get another wave of rejection. So I just want you guys to be prepared—it's a trader's market still; it's been the puts that have been printing; we still could have the powerful players uh, push us into a recession—it's very possible. I'm optimistically bullish on the fact that we could buy this level and that we could get a continued melt-up as we go into the next couple of weeks because the markets priced in a ton of pain, and now if we get any good news on the horizon, the markets can pop; we'll see them uh, go higher quicker. It does appear to me that at most the heavy selling pressure has subsided until we get more data.
Now next week is going to be a huge week of data. We've got a couple of events which are absolutely going to move the market. We've got some economic data; we've got the FOMC on Wednesday, but we kind of know already that the Fed is likely not to issue a cut, but he will be talking, and there will be a Q&A after the FOMC uh, notes get released, and we will get the opportunity to get his thoughts—whether he's more dovish leaning or more hawkish leaning. And if he's more dovish leaning and identifies some of the areas where the economy is slowing down or where inflation could be pulling down—we saw a soft CPI this week—if he comments on it in a dovish way and points to the fact that there could be more cuts than were expected in 2025, the markets could easily rip on that data. But then there's a catalyst that could be driving one of my favorite stocks higher next week, which is Nvidia's GPU technology conference. It starts on Monday and ends on Friday, and you got to know that there's going to be a ton of potential new products being highlighted which could give a bump to Nvidia's stock.
Now Nvidia's been my number one winner in the course of this last week. We took a risk position when it was down on the floor—a large risk position—and it's been steadily climbing. We got in on some skip options at around $16.88, and those were hitting around $27 and climbing going into the close, and those could easily be into the $30 next week, which is what I'm expecting. I'm going to take you into the Nvidia chart and show you what's kind of forming right there—is where the risk lies and where the opportunity lies. But the bottom line is that we took risk when it was hard to do, when there was blood in the streets, and now we're getting rewarded. Guys, I live traded with the community this morning, and if you don't know what I'm talking about, I'm talking about the Stocks With Josh Discord. We live traded, and it was a slow, choppy morning. We initially got a little 10 to 20% win on a Tesla scalp, but we sort of just kept talking and looking at s until eventually the Spy started to turn around. We jumped into that, and that turned out to be a 100-plus profiting trade. Guys, we're consistently making money in these live trade sessions if we simply spend the time together; we'll find the trade. Come and join me; don't trade alone. And even while we're not in a trade, I'm teaching about the charts and the candles and momentum and everything else that I know—I'm sharing with the community. In addition to that, if I'm not trading, I've got SpyLord live trading the other days of the week and a ton of other Crown traders to guide you in your investment journey and to teach you the basics and to give you the risky stuff if you want it—the penny stocks and the uh, micro coins uh, in cryptocurrency. Crypto's been showing a little bit of life. I'm going to hopefully do a crypto video this weekend; make sure that you uh, stay tuned for that—that'll be coming. But I am very interested right now in Nvidia's strength. It's been showing a ton of strength, and I knew down at $6 that there was going to be the opportunity for an upside from that price level. The question is, how high are we going to climb? I'm going to take you into the Nvidia chart and the Spy chart to give you some commentary on what I think will happen in the coming days, and we'll go from there. Guys, before I do that, this is the Stocks With Josh show. Thank you for joining me today. I'm in Chicago; I'm not in my regular studio. I'm hanging out with Stock Up with Larry Jones and Keenan Grace—it's his birthday—Stock Up with Larry Jones's birthday this evening. We're going to go out and celebrate; he has a big party planned. I'll let you guys know how it goes, uh, but thank you for hitting the like; appreciate you guys joining the community by hitting the subscribe. This is a charting uh, analytics uh, day trading and investing page. If you need some help with those things and hit that subscribe button and join the community, and don't sleep on the Discord; we make the money there—wonderful rewards from it all.
Right guys, let me talk to you a little bit about the Spy. Let's kick things off, and we're going to go look at the Spy real quick. This is not what we had hoped for; we wanted to see a green week; we expected this week to be lower, but we wanted to see this candle turn green; it simply didn't happen because price consolidated uh, throughout the week. However, going into Friday, we did come up off the lows. Let's go to the daily time frame because it tells an interesting story. Well, I can tell you what I see here; I can see that we had lower lows throughout the week and only one green day on Friday. Now that does show some potential going into next week, and I do believe that we're going to come up and hit this 566 or even as high as 570. And so I am optimistic going into next week, but you, if you, if you trade with me and if you spend time with me, you know that what we really need here is a second green candle; otherwise, we don't actually have a buy signal on a reversal on this market because you guys can see as we go back into this decline phase that we had green candles along the way—one here, one here, one here—but we never had two, and technically we don't have two now. So unless we get a green candle on Monday making a higher high, we're still in high alert on this bearish trending market.
Now what I do see here on the daily time frame is that we did get down to this critical level of 550 to 555, and we consolidated, which does give us a breath of fresh air and the belief that we could back test these higher levels of resistance. Now the concern there, and I've mentioned it many, many times, is that we would go higher to only go on to make a higher low, and we could easily come down from there. And so even though I do expect that we will move higher and that next week could be choppy, but I give it the benefit of the doubt that we're going to be making uh, potentially a higher high next week, the concern is that even with that, a lot of retail, and I just want to warn you guys, a lot of retail is going to get caught up being late because emotionally it's hard to invest in this downtrending market, and they're going to wait a little bit too long, and they're going to end up buying towards the top of this retest only for, if we were to get more bad news, uh, the market to go down and make a new low. And so I wanted to leave you guys on this fact that this window, this trading window that we have could be very powerful, but it could be short-lived—just be mindful of that.
So at the moment, you can see that the selling pressure was at its peak here when we're looking at volume, and as we moved lower, okay, the selling pressure did not increase; the selling pressure decreased. Okay, and so that what you want to see there is that the selling is coming to an end, right? And so that's a good sign; it tells us that we could be getting ready for a pivot. And even more importantly, when we jump to the RSI—an oversold territory—and on the max D, we're getting a little bit of curl up. Now we've yet to get that crossover, and we've yet to cross over the zero line. And so the takeaway there, guys, is 100% quite clear that we are not out of the be woods, and so we are uh, fleeing the Bears, moving towards that beautiful open space where the markets could climb higher, getting above the areas of consolidation and local resistance and breaking out, but we haven't actually got en out yet. And so I just want to keep everybody in a cautious environment, but an optimistically bullish cautious environment because I believe that we will get up.
Now here's the concern I have for some of you—that you're just simply going to wait a little bit too long for this reversal, and you're going to end up not really buying the low. And then when we go up, if we do face uh, more bad news and we end up coming down, you could simply have put yourself in a situation where you're buying uh, high and then being forced to sell lower—panic selling. Guys, this is going to continue to be in this trend for a while. So as I said, we've got a lot of big events going on next week. I'm optimistically bullish going into next week, but as a technical trader, I can confirm for you that we don't have any real buy signals—not any—MACD is curling a little bit, but it hasn't signaled; it hasn't crossed over; RSI is coming up out of oversold territory, but it would only be really bullish dominantly when we got back above the 50% level—that's when the Bulls have taken control from the Bears. We don't have that, and we only have one green day on the weekly candle, which isn't enough; it's not a buy signal, and it was our fourth straight losing week. And so the trend, which is your friend until the end, it's still down, still down, still down. However, I did take risk, and I believe because we're still in this environment where we're going to have some stair action, even if we're going lower, likely we're going to have a little bit of a move up.
So before I wrap up this video, we're going to dive into the Nvidia chart because next week is a big week for Nvidia. There's going to be a ton of news surrounding Nvidia, and that optimism could lead to the price moving higher, especially if the markets are going to have a little bit more of a rebound before they decide that there's a reason for them to go lower. So let's go quickly look at the Nvidia chart. Couple of important things to point out there, guys. First of all, we, we did great buying in this dip. I mean, anything around 105 bucks to me seemed a no-brainer. I've said it many times; I still believe that Nvidia is going to be, you know, between 160 to $200 this year or early part of 2026. Having said that, you can see that we're in a very clearly defined downtrend, and we've been consistently making lower lows. And so right now, I believe that we're entering into a period of resistance between 1222 and $129, and I think there will be profit-taking here, and I think we will have more sideways consolidation. And so depending on what your strategy is, if you intend to buy in this entire area because you believe that this will be a higher price at the end of the year, like me, well, then you could take some risk. However, if you are swing trading this, I believe that there is more room to the upside, but largely there's going to be a sell zone between 125 and 129, which will ultimately lead for us to retest and make a higher low. So my hope is that we wouldn't make a lower low—that we would change and shift the direction of Nvidia here. Our goal would be to make a higher low. The market will only take, take Nvidia up so high, and that high could be this 129 range before it needs to set a higher low.
Now I want to take you down to the MACD because it's super important. We're on the 4H hour chart, and today both the MACD line and the orange signal line crossed above the zero line, saying that the Bulls are in charge right now and that momentum has shifted towards the bullish side. Even though it has been in a strong downturn, it's giving us the sign that we are now moving up. In addition to that, we're above the 50% mark after having been down here in an oversold period of time. This entire time the stock was oversold; it was also giving us some bullish divergence at that time, and that's obviously why we got this reversal. So keeping it very simple, depending on your timeline for Nvidia, I'm bullish; I'm holding; I didn't add to my Nvidia position going into close; I was very tempted; there were some things that I did add to—AMD was one of them; however, I believe that we will go higher; it's just that I have a sizable Nvidia position both with the shares as well as options. And when I'm talking about the shares, I really don't intend to sell any of that. So even if we went down uh, lower—went back to 105—I would simply buy more. I'm in an accumulation phase on Nvidia; I believe that we're going to see more upside on Nvidia going into next week; however, it's going to be a very tough decision because I think that there could be the need to take profit on those positions—not the long-term shares, but the short-term options—it's going to be a need to take some profit on those if we climb higher because we're getting towards my take-profit zone. Remember, people were piling in at 105; they'll very likely be looking to sell at 125 because we're in a trader's market, and until or if these trade deals get worked out, the markets really won't rip higher.
I believe later in this year those deals will get worked out, and we could avoid a recession as long as two things coincide—three things—Doge doesn't cut too much; we can't gut the workforce in the United States too quickly; all of that could be done in time, but it can't be done overnight. Two, we need the tariff World War tariff to come to an end; we need to begin to cut some deals and take the pressure off everybody's uh, doing the tit-for-tat thing right now, and they're trying to negotiate, and they understand that they just can't roll over for Trump; they've got to push back; otherwise, they won't get a good deal. But eventually, I think that they will work something out, and that will lead us back into the bull run in 2025. However, we needed to discuss recession because the market could, right, with a hawkish Fed and an unyielding Trump and an aggressive Doge, the market could fall into a recession, right? It absolutely could, but I personally wouldn't fear it because I believe that it would be a great opportunity to hustle, continue to learn how to day trade because there'll be tons of opportunity, and to position yourself going long in the market because, as I talked about in yesterday's video, Goldman Sachs talked about that 30% move—14% down and then back to even and then another 133% higher—is the type of move that you can get when the market gives you a correction as long as a recession is avoided. Now we will not permanently and forever avoid a recession; that's something that needs to be understood—the market gets recession; it's normal; it's healthy. But what I would expect is that we would climb from these lows to make new highs so that when we come back for that recession, perhaps in 2026, we would simply be coming back to uh, places that would still or could still be higher than where you would buy today—that's a possibility. Let me know what you guys think. Thank you for joining me; thank you for hitting the like and subscribe. I'll check in with you guys this weekend, hopefully with a crypto video. Don't sleep on the Stocks With Josh Discord; we made money every single live trade session this week, and I believe by God's grace we'll do it again next week, and I'll see you guys over there. Uh, the name of the show is Stocks With Josh, and that's the same as the website, www.stockwithjosh.com, where you can sign up and join the community online—our pro trading community. Thanks again; peace and blessings; bye-bye. [Music]