Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you guys had a wonderful weekend and a wonderful trading week thus far.
Right, today there wasn't much to do, but you know, there was scalps, but as you guys know, right, the majority of what we're trying to accomplish here is, you know, learning how to establish the weekly range, right? I believe that that is very important and before going into the extremely you know lower time frame models which even if you take what's been taught here and apply that to lower time frame models it will still work because yes it's all fractal and we know that price is fractal.
There's been a you know notion you know something going around on Twitter well it's mainly has been ICT and before saying anything I have you know respect of a high caliber for Michael right but the thing that I do not like is the fact that he you tries to paint it as that nothing other than what he talks about works. He's trying to now, you know, distract a majority of people with this new quote unquote pediary. And we all know that the main component for the reversal of price and of course this has never been talked about publicly. So we are the only one that you know entertain this idea. The main component which causes price to turn around which means that no PD will work unless a buy model or a sell model is being delivered. Right? And the days on which that happen, right? They can easily be spotted by just looking at the economic calendar, right? It should not be hard. It should it should not be ambiguous. You should know what you're looking for, right? And you should know what you're looking for and understand that it can still fail, right? You need something that works and you need something that repeats itself over and over and over and specific days during specific time windows after a cracking correlation. Right? Today we had news in the morning session then we had news now we have news tomorrow right which is FOMC right so we can expect an immense amount of volatility tomorrow which direction will FOMC go in it will follow and this is only if it's there in the charts as with it's the same with CPI and NFP right price will follow the direction of the sequential SMT and that's the main thing to understand right okay does it always work and we're going to go into the ones that you know almost never fail right there certain cycles that are just most times are not set in stone which are the weekly cycle and the monthly cycle, right? What do you use the weekly cycle for? Just to, you know, see if you your heads are where they should be. We use the weekly cycle for, you know, intra week trading and to navigate the daily cycles. The monthly cycle is used for mainly swing trading. So you can just use the sequential MT on the monthly cycle. You know, if you're a person that's busy with life, you can't be sitting around the charts just staring at, you know, 15 second time frame, the one minute time frame cuz you're busy. You have a family and you have things that you need to do. Or maybe trading isn't even your main thing. You have other businesses, but you just like it for some reason, which is the case with some of you, right? Thursday we have high impact news events on within the New York session and Friday there is nothing already we can see that the higher low of the week will land form when Wednesday or Thursday could be an instance whereas within certain asset classes you have you know the SMT leg being formed on either of these days, right? What do I mean by that? I mean that either of these days would be one of the two legs right here. Right.
First of all, you can see that we are getting dramatically close like it's 3 days away. So whenever we have price you know this close to the contract expiry date for you know the particular futures contract that you're looking at or the particular asset that you're looking at right price will you know tend to be less deliver less high probability moves right last week we had you So, we were on the right side of the marketplace and even though that occurred, right, price was not as clean as I would like it to be, but it still delivered exactly as we wanted it to, right? Even when we were on this set time frame here looking at the E- mini, the NASDAQ and the Dow, we under we annotated these heights right here. And what did we say? This was our main draw liquidity right before the fact. And still you can see say that we could expect price to gravitate to these highs right here. And if we have that happening, this hype be left in place. You already know what that is, right? But due to the fact that we're this close to the contract expiry, which means that it's this week, right? And it's the same exact week when we have FOMC. So anyways, I was straight for what I was talking about. So yes, last week was perfect, right? We had the Dow gravitate to the highs that we expected it to gravitate to, right? We had the and we had well basically every asset just doing what we expected it to do after right religiously as it always does following our price action models here you can see that this high these highs right here right we had this wick above these highs I do not see this as a run on liquidity. Whenever we just have a wick like this, especially whenever we have price fall back to the equilibrium of the weekly range so far. Okay, just to give you a visual depiction, the weekly wind so far is categorized by Tuesday of which is today being the high, Monday the low and here we are at the equilibrium of that. Now this these two days right is undergoing consolidation. So yes there are times when you will have Monday and Tuesday Just be a whatever you see it as just be consolidating, right? And then you have the other two days being the manipulation leg, right? And there are times when the distribution leg and the manipulation leg are the same. Whereas you will have half of that specific quarter, right? be manipulation and then other half distributed in the opposite direction. Usually when that happens just like that, it happens quickly here, right? You can see that closures are higher than this closure right here. So still I see these as equal highs. I do not see this as a significant run on liquidity at all. Right. Basically the same thing that's here is what I see here with my eyes see this exactly this exact thing here. Here we have price you know has been gravitated to the area where we wanted it to be drawn to. So here we have a high probability breaker and we know what that is. What is that? that is the breaker. So this up close candle here that was formed when after you have sequential SMT.
So the thing is this is the main as I've said before many times and I I said I did say as when we began this video but I just have to say it again. This is the main thing. Without this nothing else happens, right? It's always there. And it's very easy to see. You do not need a higher time frame period. You do not need anything else once this is there. Once this is there, right? Especially with the closures. But there are times whenever you know it doesn't close below, but it's still delivers. So that is you know that is lower probability than this right. So here we had this fair value gap being filled right after you had this SMT here. The highs blown through here. Everything just blown through here. Everything blown through right there. Many of you which have sent me your trades. You're setting your trades in the group. And I just have to say this once more. Yes, I've seen one of you make make an absurd amount of return, right? It's insane. You cannot need to be saying this again. You cannot be making 200% off of one trade because that shows that you lack money management. It doesn't matter if you make money. Doesn't matter if you pass the challenge in one trade. That's not good. Why isn't that good? Is it possible? Yes. But in this case, it shouldn't be cuz you're risking too much. You shouldn't be risking that much in the first place, right? It's not a sprint marathon. You need to be composed. If you risk too much, you'll end up getting emotional. Win or lose, you'll feel like you're the best to ever do it. But you know, the best to ever do this has nothing to do with tentacles, right? That's the guy or woman that has their emotions under control, that has their risk management under control. So, yes, you may be able to predict moves with an an insane, you know, probability. You may know what price is going to do more than 80% of the times now cuz you some of you can't do that. I've seen I've seen you guys do it but you still need to manage yourself.
So here consolidation so far this week here same thing consolidation so far this week and the same thing is occurring here. Now, here's the thing which pulls the support from anything else that that's out there. So, D, how can I find a trade? Do you need a bias? No, you don't need a bias. Okay, I don't need a buy. So, what do you do? What do I do? Exactly what I've been saying. If you're trading the weekly range, you wait for sequential SMT and a lower time frame position swing point or remember SMT if you don't remember SMT market structure shifts, right? That's something that no one else know. They don't even understand what it is. they will see an SMT market structure shift and believe that it's sequest SMT when it's not. So what do you wait for one of these highs or lows this high or this low to get breached? And look, this is you approaching it as as how it is, right? The main reason why we expected this move above here was why we were in a higher time frame gap. Yes, here we were trading within a new week opening gap. So, it's just natural that we would expect higher prices. But here, we don't have that here. So, what do you wait for? Okay, first of all, you're not trying to be a prophet. You're trying to profit. I don't know. I thought that was a good one. My bad. Sounded better in my head. Right. So, if it's bullish, see crash SMT, you go on the lower time frame and you look for a reason to be bullish. You look for price to shift structure then because if it shifts structure without the tracking correlation that you're looking for that that means that what you're looking for isn't actually there. So again right you already know how I am with equal highs like this. We expect these highs to be rated, right? Someone's looking for a short right here. He's going to get stopped out. Same thing here. Here you can see how we were reacting to the new weak opening gaps. And this is something that I want to show you right there. It's very difficult at times to know when a UI opening gap is going to be reactive. But this is how you know whenever what it's as simple as this. After a sequential SMT, right? When everything is placed right into the direction where it's supposed to go, right? So this sequ sequence simply occurred here. What happened afterwards? Price starts reacting or treating the new week opening gaps as what? As support. If this was a bearish sequential SMT, what would happen? Price would be treating them as resistance. Right? So here you can see that, right? Price traded here into what? new opening gap. Same thing here. And then we return back within the weekly range. The main thing that we need for price to move is what? Volatility. Where does volatility come from? Engineer liquidity. What is that? High impact news here. Could this be tradable? Yes, this was a trade. Every price swing is a trade. You could make one to three from here to here. You can make it from here to here. You could even make it from just here to here even in within just this candle. Right? Given the if you are a scalper right it's how you approach it here you can see that the US dollar index right delivered to the direction of the sequence the sequential empty which we highlighted here as well price has been going higher here as well price has and going higher as well. This right here is low probability, right? But whenever you have low probability price action occurring within the FXD or the forex trend, then you will have high probability more than likely be delivered here. And as you can see that we have textbook market conditions here. And already it's looking good due to the fact that we had the first quarter of this week consolidating which is Q1. So pay attention to the direction where you have the news delivering price in you know in in relation to the true weak open right. So here we have the true week open. You can see the price basically returned to the tubic open. And even though you have subtle difference differences across these three assets, there's one thing that's the same. Should we go open up here? Price h is hovering around that. Should we go up here? Price is hovering around that. Should we go open here? The same thing. Right. So this high and this low, this high and this low, this high and this low, they're important today. If you see sequent between the lows, then expect price to be returning to this range. If you see it above the highs, then expect price to do the same. This is for some of you guys who can't make up your mind, right? This is for some of you guys who, you know, you want to be insane. You just want to trade without, you know, conforming to one direction. That's how you do it. Plus, you know, adding the certain things that, you know, we always talk about, such as the precision sync point and whatnot here, right?
We have Nvidia and Amazon, right? So the thing about stocks is that they do not have a mind of their own, right? They will follow what the stock market, right? And this is why you shouldn't just be dependent on a certain stock for its price action. And this is why penny stocks and things such as that those are basically the same thing as shitcoins and crypto, right? You need to be focused on, this is just me asking a question, which stocks should I focus on? the ones with high market caps, the top 10 at least, because those top 10 stocks are controlled by whatever the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ is doing. That's how it is. It's all programmed.
So today, I hope that you guys found this useful. Hopefully after the weekend, you know, we will be having this after this weekend. I mean, we should be having Sunday, not Sunday, Saturday streams coming back. So, it's been hectic for the past month and a half for two months, right? A lot of things have been going on. And actually, right, I have a flight tomorrow. So, probably even out around 4:00 a.m. Still haven't finished packing and stuff like that. So, yeah. And also, right, if you guys could pray for me cuz I don't like flights. I hate flying. But yeah, it's just one of those things that you have to do, right? Anyways, with that being said, I hope that you guys found this useful. We will be in communication. The next time we go live will either be this Thursday or Friday in the morning due to the circumstances of what's happening, you know, regarding to life this week and everything should be back 100% next week. Yes. Now that being said, good luck and good trading.