Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape and that you are doing well. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video of Tuesday, September 30, 2025, in front of a mostly green crypto market, you see. Well, except for a few altcoins, because yesterday, Bitcoin and altcoins pushed up well for the most part. Pretty nice. On the other hand, be careful, it smells a bit like a short squeeze. A short squeeze means that boom, it will liquidate quite a few short positions after the drop we had last week. Many positions are open. We saw this this morning since the opening of the Asian markets, which are rather sellers from Tokyo. Where is Beijing and the like? Well, you can feel that for now it's quite light. We're at around -1%. Nothing serious. We will rather monitor what will happen at the opening of Wall Street this afternoon. Wall Street closed rather mixed yesterday, but with Nvidia at +2%, it lifts everyone's spirits because it's what weighs the most in global ETFs. So you understand, when Nvidia goes up, futures are slightly at zero, those in the red are around zero, so we are waiting. Waiting for what? Well, waiting for the figures that will be released this afternoon. It will be 30 minutes after the opening of Wall Street, which opens at 3:30 PM. It will be at 4 PM. It will be the job openings available, you see. Well, so we know that employment is not going well at all. Since May, bam, you have many fewer job openings. So what could happen if at 4 PM the job openings come out higher than expected? We'll say, cool, it's good news for the American economy, poor Americans, there are plenty of jobs available. They will all be able to find employment. Unfortunately, it will be bad news for the market because the market, it's binary, it wants interest rate cuts quickly. Rate cuts, I moon. No rate cuts, I crash. It doesn't care about anything else. Well, and so we understand well that if there are many jobs available, if the figures come out higher than in July, you see the curve going up for September, for August, sorry. Well, you can feel that unfortunately, it won't be very pretty because investors might say, "Oh my god, there are fewer jobs available, which means, finally, there are more jobs available, so they will all be able to find jobs, find work, not all of them, but you get the idea? And so there will be fewer rate cuts because Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, if he sees figures like, well, listen, for now it's going well, there are plenty of jobs waiting for people, so we don't have to accelerate rate cuts because we will mainly reignite inflation. In short, that's what you need to remember: if employment starts to go well, there will be less probability of rate cuts because Powell's rate cuts were mainly to support employment because it was catastrophic. But on the other hand, you have inflation saying, "I'm here," and a rate cut is like, "Yes, give me food. Yum yum yum yum." Inflation loves to eat rate cuts, but it grows because it's greedy, this inflation. So we'll see. On the other hand, if job openings decrease, investors are happy because it will increase the probability of rate cuts. Because we have a rate cut expected for the end of this month, the end of October. Well, so the latest news, what are they? Bitcoin reached $114,000 yesterday, that's great. Is it a simple short squeeze, a bull trap as we say? That is to say, the market, poof, goes to look for shorts. A liquidated short creates a purchase on the market that will liquidate other shorts. Is it a cascade of short liquidations? That is to say, well, simply, it's futures that drive the market, as the drop was also driven quite a bit by futures with all the long positions there were. Well, that's the question we're asking ourselves. There's a bit of that, so we need to be careful. When last week, Bitcoin dropped from $116,000 to $109,500, many long positions were reduced. We could have said, well, there's a market reset, meaning, okay, we've liquidated all the long positions, now it's fine, the train is empty as some say, we can go to the moon healthily. That's if everything goes well. So, you should know that there has been a lot of accumulation and a lot of buying the dip by pretty much everyone. Why? Because this data we're looking at shows the net flow on exchanges. When it's pink going up, it means more bitcoin is entering exchanges than leaving. So you can feel that if more Bitcoin is coming in, it's to be sold. So that doesn't look good. On the other hand, when it's going down, more Bitcoin is leaving, and so these are simply bitcoins that have been accumulated. So we see that since around when Bitcoin made its January 2024, when the ETFs came out, there's a lot of Bitcoin leaving. Well, and so this peak we see on the left, where people bought the dip on Bitcoin's drop to $109,000, is rather good news. What would be bad is if the green turned pink, and that would mean that unfortunately, the selling pressure would be quite strong, but for now, that's not the case. Well, now, is this rise we've had made by people returning to buy? Yeah! They're all coming back to buy, it's off to October to the Moon. Or is it made by futures? And there, it could be a bull trap, unfortunately. But it looks like it's made by futures. And on top of that, what we have is that with the rise in Bitcoin, open interest has risen very sharply. Open interest in French is the number of futures or perpetual contracts that are open. And so that doesn't look good. That means people continue to bet aggressively on derivatives. And the problem we have right now, we'll talk about it in the coming weeks, is that with decentralized platforms like Hyperliquidity, everyone is on their decentralized platform, so many are coming out, that these platforms are disgusting. Because they want to do it quickly and haphazardly. And that unfortunately increases the number of open positions on futures because large whales are arriving and placing large positions on these decentralized exchanges because centralized exchanges don't want to send hundreds of millions to a centralized exchange for a KYC. Well, they want to decentralize on the blockchain. So that opens the door to even more open positions by even more large whales, and that opens the door to somewhat chaotic market fluctuations to go after those whales. So, be careful. Could Bitcoin fall back to $109,000? Yes, clearly, because it's a gap that is not filled at $109,000. Be very careful about that. I told you about the VIP video this morning. A quick look at the liquidations, very fresh. So, can we say that it was a short squeeze? Personally, I think so. Why? Because it shows you that here the CVD is completely flat. Completely flat. That means it's not people's purchases that have arrived, they're all buying, let's go. There's like good news and boom. No, it's not that. It was unfortunately orchestrated here by a short squeeze. So a small, cute push that goes boom boom boom boom boom and liquidates an astronomical amount of shorts. We saw anyway at the end of last week that there were many more shorts than longs. So, is it over? Not necessarily. You see that it can go to $115,000 without a problem. It can even creep up to almost $117,000. There. On the other hand, unfortunately, many long positions have been opened. And I'll show you this in detail, but first I'll show you this article that tells us, "Well, be careful, traders are again placing bullish bets, bullish bets on futures, it's QCP Capital, based in Singapore, who reported this to us yesterday. They tell us that open interest is increasing as well as the funding rate." And so when interest rises, open interest rises, it means many positions are opening, and then you look at the funding rate. If the funding rate rises, it means these positions are more longs. If the funding rate decreases, it means these positions are more shorts. And unfortunately, the funding rate is rising. So it's longs that are coming back. And I confirm this for you here, you can see that the quantity of longs has increased significantly. Well, and so QCP tells us that optimism is returning in the high-leverage perpetual bond sector. Thanks to decentralized exchanges that are bringing large whales to place huge positions. Far from retreating after last week's liquidation, leveraged long positions are returning in force. So last week, in short, they got pretty beaten up, but it wasn't enough. Boom, it's back at full throttle. Well, so here they tell us that the annualized funding rate has increased by 13%. This indicates that long positions are paying more to keep the position open. Well, what is the funding rate? In short, know that the funding rate was created to prevent markets from exploding. Because if there's no funding rate, you'd have a total market explosion, it would be chaos. The funding rate is a kind of weight that rebalances longs and shorts. If too many longs are placed, you'll pay a lot, and that will encourage shorts to come in to rebalance. Otherwise, it can be chaotic, an explosion, it would be really messy if that wasn't there, you see. Well, and then here, we're getting technical, but know that it helps to maintain market balance, otherwise it can become something that can simply make markets explode if this funding wasn't there, you see, to calm things down a bit. If there are too many longs, it can calm down, and if there are too many shorts, it can also calm down. Well, QCP also tells us that the long bias on Hyperliquidity is also rising to 57% from only 36%. And you see, we're starting to talk about centralized exchanges that we weren't talking about before, because on Hyperliquidity, you have large whales with hundreds of millions arriving and placing huge positions, and of course, that totally influences the market. Well, so this desire of investors, as QCP Capital says, demonstrates a growing conviction that prices will continue to rise. In short, they are bullish. October is bullish, the fourth quarter is bullish. Let's place a long, who cares, it's bullish anyway. They think like that, Julgar, he thinks like that. And unfortunately, what does that do? It means that when the market has taken out quite a few longs, it goes up again. But be careful, there was still a large quantity remaining up to around $108,000 or even $106,500. We know that our structure has long indicated a high probability of breaking $107,000, you see. So here, a small short squeeze that can go up a bit more, but beware of the gap on futures contracts that awaits at around $119,000. And will the market validate the structure to go down? Especially since the largest quantity of longs, where is it? Well, it's under this base that was maintained last week. So under $108,500. And you see it here, the largest quantity is there. So if there's a reversal to go below $108,000 towards $107,000 or $106,000, don't say, "Oh my god, why is this happening? I don't understand." Well, you have the answer right in front of your eyes. Well, so, some good news for October too. October should have the final decision for 16 crypto ETFs. Not 1, 2, 3, 16 crypto ETFs. These are ETFs on Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, mostly XRP. And so it's the final decision. When an ETF comes out, and you have a fund, you have billions, you want to launch an ETF, you submit your ETF, it can take months, months, months, almost a year, even more than a year, I think it's a year and a few months they can extend, extend, extend. Well, and so here, the final date, but we see it here, you see, the majority of ETFs were filed in October 2024, you see here September 2024. September 2024, so you see that they even extended some until around the 27th. One year approved on February 27th. What's the maximum? Yes, it's around a year, roughly. Well, who cares. And so what do we see? We see that there are many ETFs waiting to be approved with deadlines in October. You see October 1st, that means October. So, October 2nd. For the first one, it's Litecoin for Grayscale, you see. Well, and so what do we see? There's a bit of Bitcoin, Ethereum, there's a bit of altcoins, and especially a lot of Solana and XRP. First is Solana, first is XRP. Is this good news for cryptos? Yes, it's good news. Who says open ETFs says, well, money that will arrive from traditional finance. Just a small caveat about Grayscale. Grayscale are tricky people. Grayscale are people who had trusts, so they were people who already had a lot of money initially on these platforms, and many users were stuck because it wasn't easy to sell these things for technical reasons. And so Congress opens up and transforms its trust into a normal spot ETF, a natural ETF. Well, a lot of what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum, those who ruined everything when the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs arrived, it was Grayscale, and many people left Grayscale, you see. Well, no, just be careful about that. So, Solana has many ETFs that will open, but Grayscale will be there, and they can spoil the mood, you see. For XRP, there are many ETFs that will open, but Grayscale will be there, and they can spoil the mood in the short term. It's in the short term, as soon as it transforms into an ETF, there could be, they could, it's not mandatory, many people leaving Grayscale and selling, and so it wouldn't be good at first, and when Grayscale calms down, it pushes, exactly what happened with Bitcoin. The buying pressure from other ETFs could compensate for the selling pressure from Grayscale, but Grayscale wasn't very pleasant. Well, so this is rather good news. Now, just be careful about Grayscale. And to finish, well, MicroStrategy made a huge super purchase last week, 196 bitcoins for $22.1 million. Oh, there's no more money. There's no more money. This is the drop in purchases. We've never seen such a small purchase from MicroStrategy. Well, they own about 640,000 bitcoins, bought for almost $74,000 on average for all their bitcoins. Well, so it's not too bad. Now the problem is that there's no more money. Well, that's a shame. After all, they did everything they could. Be careful, thank you to Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. They bought everything they could. Well, there's not much money left in the vault. In addition, MicroStrategy's stock has fallen quite a bit, about 30% in recent months. So, well, I've been talking about this for months, when it's a virtuous cycle. You buy Bitcoin, people are very happy, they buy your stock because they want to get exposure to Bitcoin. The stock goes up, you can sell even more stock to buy even more Bitcoin. You buy even more because you have even more Bitcoin. A virtuous cycle like that. Yeah! Now it's purchases of 10,000 bitcoins for several billion. When the virtuous cycle becomes a vicious cycle, it stinks. Bitcoin corrects. People are scared, they sell MicroStrategy stock. As you sell, they sell MicroStrategy stock, so you can sell less of it cheaply, and you'll sell less of it because it's falling. So you'll buy less Bitcoin. So people will see that you're buying less Bitcoin, and on top of that, Bitcoin is correcting. They will continue to sell MicroStrategy shares. So you can sell even less of it to put less downward pressure. You get the idea? And here the virtuous cycle, well, it's starting to end. Let's hope the vicious cycle isn't too vicious. Well, friends, this is a short news video. I hope you enjoyed it. Sending kisses. We'll meet on social media, links are in the description. See you later. Bye bye. [Music]