Transcription
So yes, we've begun recording. And if you guys pay attention to the highs right now, if you, it will be clear. If you guys use the 15-minute timeframe, right, you would see that there is sequential SMT between, let me just go and show you guys, there is sequential SMT between, I believe it's the, is the morning session, the morning session and the PM session, which is why we're having price fall right now.
So ultimately, right, it is, you know, well, it should be, you know, pretty obvious. Let's not say that, let's not get too cocky, right? You know, we should expect lower prices now, due to the fact that, you know, we have, well, blown through all-time highs for the E-mini S&P and the Nasdaq, right? And currently, the Nasdaq and the E-mini S&P, they'll be trying to get back in sync with the Dow, right? Which is, you see right now, we're having price fall, right? And, you know, it should be obvious, you know, the direction, you know, it should have been obvious before the fact, right? The direction that we were going, due to the fact that we were interested in, you know, having these highs completely blown up, and then, of course, after that, we wanted to see price return within the range, which it is, you know, on the way to do right now, right? So there's one of two things that can happen. It can just drop now, or if, if it retraces back, you know, within the range, and tomorrow, we will have some sort of cracking correlation, which would cause price to reverse. Do you understand? Right here, it's very obvious, you know, the direction in which price was supposed to go prior to now. While we're having this reversal, right, that's due to the fact that we had, you know, sequential SMT between Monday's low and yesterday's low. So yesterday, in the S&P 500, we had Tuesday's trading take out Monday's low, whereas within the Nasdaq, that did not happen, right? You can see right here, you know, looking at the Nasdaq, this low did not take this one out, right? And here, you can see that we took this level right here, but you can see that we're falling, and that's due to the fact that the Dow is still weak, right? Which was indicated by a chart that I posted, you know, the Dow is weaker than all of these, right, at the moment. Also, there was intermarket, you know, sequential SMT as well, right? That was present as well.
And, you know, there is a reason why, you know, at times, you have the indices just, you know, going, you know, like this, higher, higher, higher, even when it's in premium, it still has, you know, it still goes higher. And that's due to the fact that there is something else that is going on behind the scenes, right? Which is, in my terms, what I call it, is P&D differential, premium and discount differential, which occurs between two different triads, right? So it's usually kicked off by Friday's price action, most times than not, right? So like right here, now we're looking at the index futures triad. You can see that the, you know, low of the week of the previous week was Monday, right? Evident across all the pairs, even though the Dow was lagging, right? But if you look at the FX triad, right, the low of the week, and don't mind, you know, me, you're using TVC right now. Capital.com has, you know, a wick below this low, but it, it really doesn't matter, right? It doesn't matter right now for this, anyways. I could use the Capital.com data, which would, you know, give us or yield the same results. I'm, which I'm trying to, you know, give right now. Okay, first, before going forward, you can see that we took this high out, which is why we're having this retracement, right? This is sequential SMT right here, right? This is between the first week of the month and this month, right? So obviously, you can see we're above the true month open, right? And, you know, the rules for that. So we took these highs out here, we did not take this one out, right? And here, we did not take this low either. And it's the same thing for the other asset classes, right? So, you know, anyways, let's go back to what we were talking about, right? The simplest form of, you know, understanding premium discount differential is, you know, using the lowest low of the week, right? Which would be Friday for the FX triad, you know, more specifically when we're talking about the lower week, the Euro and the pound. So this would be Friday's low, which was the low of the week, right? This candle right here, be the low Friday, right? And it is annotated by this gray line right here. So you can see that this week, right, when we opened, we fell below, below the week, and we began to consolidate below the low of the week. The same thing happened for the British pound. And for the dollar index, we started to consolidate above the previous high of the week, right? Whereas within, you know, this segment of price action, we were nowhere, you know, close to the low of the week. So we open this week within the premium of the previous week, whereas, you know, here, within the Euro and the Great British pound, we'll open this week within the discount of, you know, these pairs, the Euro and the British pound, right? So they are in, you know, opposing, you know, ranges, partition of the ranges, which are premium and discount, right? So this is one of the reasons why we expected higher prices, because whenever we have something, you know, such as this happen, we usually get expansion afterwards, right? Which is usually followed by retracement.
Okay, and due to the fact that Monday, and I believe that someone asked a question in the group yesterday, and I posted it, and I posted, and but I, um, responded to them. So there is something that you must understand, right? I am very careful with my words. I'm very careful with anything that I choose to say. So I will not say something or respond to something that I think one of you guys can respond on your own, or, you know, one of your companions, one of your colleagues can help with, right? Whether it being an admin or, you know, anyone that's in the group that's, you know, proficient in the things that we talk about. So yesterday, someone asked, you know, why did my, my myself, myself, I pointed out to the fact that we have sequential SMT between Monday and Wednesday, right? So we had sequential, sequential SMT between, not Monday, Wednesday, Monday and Tuesday, sorry about that, Monday and Tuesday, right? And this is why we had price going higher. But why did we have the E-mini and the Nasdaq expanding like this, and there you can see where prices fall, and if you're on the lower timeframe, you can, you know, it should be easier, clearer for you guys to see. Anyways, right? Why did we have this expanded? Why did it expand like this? First of all, we did not take the low out of, you know, the previous, you know, Friday. That low wasn't taken out at all, right? So here we had price above Friday's low, and that's where we had, you know, the sequential, sequential SMT occur for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, right? But, you know, for the Dow, and as we have, you know, been talking about the Dow, the Dow isn't really the best thing to be focused on right now, right? As you can see, it's visually consolidating, right? But, you know, it could have helped, helped us out, anyways, right? Here, where you see that we took out the previous Friday's low, well, these did not, right? So this was a sign of the expansion, right, before it even happened. That's why we were focused on, you know, this high, which we said whenever price trades above this high, you know, these highs, we're going to expect some returning back to, you know, within the range, right? Here you can see that we already have, you know, sell-side liquidity, you know, perfectly placed already for price to return to, right? Looking at the S&P 500 right now. So this right here is, you know, this is sell-side liquidity. That sell-side liquidity, here you can see these lows right here, that's sell-side liquidity as well, right? So the only thing needed right now for price, you know, to drop back within the range, and whenever that happens, that will be the perfect time, right? Because trading within the range is better than trading outside of a range. It's actually harder to trade above here, whereas we don't have any, you know, higher timeframe PD, which, you know, ultimately, we don't need, because you can see that we're having price, you know, doing what we expect, that, you know, right? But it's just easier to navigate, you know, within a range because you have more liquidity pools to attack, let's say that, right? So we have liquidity here and here, right? Personally, if I took a long here, you know, and got out anywhere here, I would, I would basically, you know, if I'm short here, or short anywhere above here, right? I would basically, on my, my, you know, stop at break-even. And if I got stopped out, I just waited until price fell back within the range, because there's a ton of liquidity below the current price at the moment, right?
So, right, and I don't know if you guys haven't, you know, gotten the gist of, you know, how to expect CPI moves, right? First of all, remember, we expect the price to go up about this size. So that was, you know, totally, you know, you already know, you should have known that this was, this was going to happen. And remember what I said before, right? Whenever we have, first of all, the low we placed before CPI, which is confirmed by sequential SMT, right? So this right here is the low, the low week so far, right? Before CPI, this happened. Remember, CPI does not typically give you this sort of Judas. CPI will not do this, right? CPI is not going to take out the previous day's low and go higher. CPI will just expand, right? That is what CPI does. It just expands in one straight line. If there was a high placed here, whereas, you know, Tuesday took out Monday's high, if that had happened, then CPI would have, would have done what? Just dropped in one straight line. That's what CPI does, right? So the direction of CPI is, can be confirmed before, right? Even a day before, right? As long as we have, you know, sequential SMT, right? Here and here, we had, you know, intermarket sequence as well, which we'll be looking at. Then we're going to get this move, right? And usually, right, whenever we have sequential SMT like this, and it falls within, you know, a wick such as this, right? Then we have P&D differential, whereas we have the S&P 500 in premium, you know, in comparison to the previous week's data, and the Nasdaq, same in premium, in comparison to the previous week's data. And then we have the Euro, right, in discount, and we have the Great British pound in discount. Then we're going to get this expansion, right? Here you can see that we have the dollar index take Monday's high, and this is the, you know, textbook AMD, you know, from the YouTube video, right? This is the textbook AMD, where we have Monday's high taken out, trading above the true week open, right? So this was the true week open, which is where we did our last stream, right? Which I like doing those streams because, you know, that's the most important, you know, for the week, of course, you know, piece of data, the true week open, right? This, this is what you get when you acknowledge it, right? So, you know, me doing my streams at that time, you know, is very good in my opinion because it forces you guys to, well, some of you guys that do nothing until I see anything, right? To literally wait until this segment of data is established. So here we have what? The true week open, right? Here, price trades above the true week open. What happened here? Tell me. We had sequential SMT and intermarket sequential SMT at the same time, right? So here, while we had price taking out this high, and price taking out this low for the Great British pound, it did not take this low out. What the Euro did, and the US dollar index took its high, right? This was sequential SMT. Also, you can see that, of course, we had the P&D differential, where we had the Euro establishing its low of the week below the previous low of the week, right? Whereas the data within the index futures triad, you know, could not, you know, mirror that effect. So here, right, you can see that you can see the, the sequential SMT here. But for you to see the intermarket sequential SMT at, you know, a higher level, you have to go to the bond futures. So here, and you can also see here that we are falling, right, as well, just as how, you know, we expected, right? Here, and also, the also, we're going to be falling, right, here as well. And within the Euro and the pound, of course, we're going to be falling.
So another thing that you should understand is, you know, whenever you have, and this is specific for the weekly cycle, which is comprised of days, as you know, right? Whenever we have sequential SMT, right? Which was put into place by the premium and discount differential, right? We're going to get expansion. But, and after the expansion, we're going to have price align. So the alignment of price is not always there, right? Because there are times when you'll be looking at price, you'll be looking at the Euro, you'll be looking at the S&P 500, comparing them, and they're not going in the same direction, right? This is fine. Okay. So here we have an expansion of price, then we have price retrace. Also, you can see that this is also an effect, or, or a, you know, this is following the Great British pound as it has reason to return back within the range. Why is that? It took this high, right? This is sequential SMT, right? It took this high out. The Euro didn't do that, and the US dollar did not take its low. So this signifies a reversal of price, right? Which is something that usually happens whenever you have this type of this type of price action, right? You have price, you know, rally, you know, create some sort of consolidation, you know, play around a bit, take a high, and drop. So the thing to take away from this is the premium discount differentials, right? So what is it? Okay, first, you have, you know, price on sync, right? Between two closely, or two pairs of, well, two triads, you know, on syncing. Everything usually follows the T-futures, right? And remember that the move for CPI is established before the fact whenever we have sequential SMT and intermarket sequential SMT at the same time. And remember that's important. You should remember that it should happen at the same time. We usually have this imbalance right here left unfilled. Do you understand? So this imbalance right here is not going to be filled. And remember that CPI is one straight move. So you wouldn't expect it to fall back within this, you know, either way, right? So even your stop would be safe here. This CPI, right? So here you can see that we have an immense amount of liquidity left above the highs formed by CPI, which are usually revisited to, you know, before the course of the week, right? So below these lows here for the Great British pound, there's liquidity, a large, a large amount of liquidity, right? And remember the magneto effect, right? Here we have sequential SMT and intermarket sequence. Here we have a cracking correlation as well, right? So we can see, you know, price form some sort of cracking correlation. And whether it's a precision swing point, right? It's important to note that you would like to see at least, you know, sequential SMT between, you know, the, the weekly cycle, or between the daily cycle, nothing lower than that, before you see a reversal, right? So pretty much that's it for now. The week has, you know, in my opinion, unless we see some, unless we see sequential SMT tomorrow between Wednesday, between tomorrow's price action and this week's price action, it's best to wait until price is back within the range, right? We're literally at all-time highs again, which is insane, right? We're at all-time highs again. And right here was, you know, pretty easy to, you know, anticipate this, due to the fact that we had, you know, the P&D differential and sequential SMT, right? Which was, you know, ultimately coordinated by, you know, price falling below the true open, which is very important to understand and very important to take note of. So we will be back, of course, this Sunday, the latest. There will be another model posted, which, you know, you should study. And, you know, something else, another image posted for you guys, but it will be posted to W. So please don't believe that it will be posted here. Make moment, admin. Okay, sure. All right.
So I hope that you guys found this useful, and I hope that you're studying, and I, oh my God, I hope that you're taking everything into consideration that we have talked about so far, right? So it's not just a true open, it's not just sequential SMT, right? For a reversal to occur, there must be three things, right? There must be a true open present, right? If you're bullish, price should be below it, of course. If you're bearish, price should be above it, of course. Then there should be sequential SMT and intermarket sequential SMT occurring at the same time. So now, we really need to look at, you know, that we need to see what that looks like. The easiest way, in my opinion, to do it right now is comparing, you know, the Great British pound, T-bond futures, and the E-mini right now. So this is essentially, you know, the building blocks of everything, right? First of all, you can see the P&D differential is there, right? Is, is there. This is in premium of the previous week's range. This is in discount of the previous week's range. This, even this is in discount of the previous range, the T-bond futures. Then here, what do we have here? We have price failing to fall below Monday's price action, right? And this is within the Great British pound. Here, within the T-bond futures, which was, this is the same price that presented itself, you know, within all of the members of the interest rate triad, right? We have price failing to fall below Monday's price action as well. Here, we have price fall below this price action, this down closed candle, right? And this is the one timeframe, which is specific to, right? Once you see this happen, right? And this candle closes, this one opens, you want to be buying in the, in this candle right here. So this is actually what I would consider, you know, an actual order block, and it's after all of this happens, right? Says after everything right here happens, this down closed candle. Also, what else is there? We are below the true week open, right? We are below the true week open. So below the true week open, there is, and I have to label this, right? I give you guys permission to take a picture of this one, like, you can screenshot this one, it's okay. This one, okay, this is important, right? Like, we need to stop, you know, some of you guys are confused, and you need to stop being confused, right? This is what you want, right? If there's an N-block, you can use it like this. If there's not an N-block, which there will most, most likely be, use the fair value gap, right? So it doesn't matter if there's an, this down closed candle, remember, this down closed candle must be the last candle, right? Before we have, you know, this swing move. So this down closed candle is the one that should cause the sequence plus the intermarket sequence. You want to use the one, the asset that takes the low, right? You just use, you don't want to use these ones, right? As you can see, price expanded on these ones, but they're weaker. So you can see that they fall more, and, you know, much earlier than this. So here we have what? Sequential SMT. And people will not understand this. So even if you screenshot it and you look at it, they still will not understand what the hell they're looking at. So we're, first of all, we're below the true open of the week, right? This is the one-hour timeframe, which is specific, right? Got to be using the one-hour timeframe for the true week open, right? So there's a one-hour timeframe. Then we have sequential SMT and intermarket sequential SMT. And for this, you do not need to do what? You don't need to be, you know, looking at a higher timeframe sequence at all. You just need to be looking at the other two main triads, which there are other triads, of course, there are, which you guys will get to know, you know, whenever it's time. Cuz some of you guys will, well, there's this one guy that, you know, complains that there's too much information, and you keep giving us new information. That's the thing. You need, you don't want new information, that's what you pay for, new information. So this is the perfect, you know, model for, you know, trading the weekly range. What's, what's something that you see that is important, but something that I've been doing on and off for the past few weeks, starting, you know, these streams at this exact time, where the true week open has been established, right? So when the true week open is established, you wait for manipulation. And what causes manipulation? Manipulation is not just price trading below and tagging a low. That is not manipulation. That is nothing, right? Because if all of these assets are doing the same thing, then price will just continue to fall. The only time the cracking correlation happens is when price falls below, it will open, trades below the low of, you know, the previous day, while another asset failed to do so. So here you can see that we had the E-mini S&P 500, you know, there was a cracking correlation between the E-mini S&P 500, the Great British pound, and the T-bond futures, which means that this cracking correlation occurred across all of these, all three of these triads. There was a cracking correlation, which is something to take note of. It could have occurred between just one, but here it occurred between both of them. That equates to higher probability news. So it's not just, okay, it just happened between Great. I shouldn't look at this one. There'll be a time whereas, you know, well, of course, you know, personally, I have to be looking at, you know, all of, you know, like three different sets of assets. But there'll be, there will come a time whereas, you know, it would be very easy for you. And, you know, maybe there's someone that's so smart that can create something that, you know, tracks all of them at the same time. And, you know, there you get the SMT, sequential SMT, and the intermarket sequence SMT. So this is, you know, very important. And this is, is a model in itself. And this can be, you know, used down to the, the lowest cycles that you can, you know, imagine, because it's all fractal, right? There's none higher. There's, you can't even go on to the milliseconds, right? You can go up to many, many, many years, right? It's all fractal, and it functions the same way. I hope that you have, you know, a, what do I call them again? You had ideas, you know, shared with you that can help your trading. I hope that you understand this, and I hope that you put it in, you know, your arsenal, your trading arsenal. Until I talk to you guys again, have a wonderful day.