Transcription
Good morning, today is Wednesday, July 15th. Trump has reversed his stance again. Last night, around 9:00 PM, Trump posted a very long message announcing that he would no longer pursue the plan to collect a 20% toll on the value of goods passing through. America would be the one to control it. Trump said that after consulting with the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries, there was no need to collect 20%. Instead, the Gulf countries would invest in America. Oh, a huge amount of money! Therefore, there was no need to collect 20%. This is a retreat, a retreat that, I must say, was a slight attempt to save face, but the face was not very pretty. This is because everyone knows that Trump's claim to collect 20% contradicted the principles that America itself had espoused, both by Trump himself and especially by his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. He repeatedly emphasized that no country has the right to collect tolls in straits because straits are international waters under international law, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Yet, suddenly, Trump woke up the night before last, and less than 24 hours later, Trump backed down. This must be called taking the ladder down himself this time. However, he said they would still blockade Iran. But let me tell you, oil is flowing smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz, which the American Navy is escorting. All ships of all nationalities can pass, except for Iranian ships or ships trading with Iran. Otherwise, it's free. But I assure you, cargo ships and oil tankers still wouldn't dare. Because Iran might shoot at them. America, out of nowhere, suddenly declared that Trump controls this strait, like a thug declaring, "I control this alley." But this person comes from far away, from another hemisphere of the world. And the original owner of the alley, Iran, has weapons and equipment there, ready. Who would dare to pass, even if the new thug at the alley entrance says, "Go ahead, go ahead, I'll let you pass"? But once you go in, how do you know that the thugs controlling the various alleys won't shoot? Therefore, there is still no opportunity for ships to pass freely and safely. Thus, oil prices remain high because of uncertainty and tension that can arise at any time. It is shocking that this is a battle. Trump said, "I will strike hard, and next week I will strike power plants, I will strike bridges," both of which are civilian lives, not military targets. Neither side should strike power plants, bridges, or refineries. Desalination of seawater to produce fresh water is very important for the people in the Middle East. Attacking water treatment plants is very dangerous and a clear violation of human rights. But Trump doesn't care. Trump insists he will continue. Let's listen to what Trump told the media.
"Do you anticipate that the strikes were seen this week against Iran will expand? Are you considering hitting energy other locations? Save the energy. But ultimately hit energy targets. You. But we're going to hit very hard tonight. We're going to hit very hard tomorrow night. We're going to hit very hard the day after. And then next week it's going to get really bad for them. Because next week comes the uh power plant. Next week comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges."
To Fox News, the interviewer asked if the attacks on Iran would expand. Trump said, "Tonight we will strike hard. Tomorrow night we will strike hard. The night after tomorrow night we will strike hard. Next week we will strike power plants. Next week we will strike bridges." This is how they pressure and squeeze, both militarily and economically. Closing the Strait of Hormuz here means closing it only for Iran. Trump wants to control the situation in the Persian Gulf himself. How long can this last militarily? Operations might be possible, but how long will it last? Does it mean America will station its navy there forever? Because one day, Iran might retake it or declare that America must withdraw. But Trump's announcement last night on Fox News again, that there will be severe and heavy strikes every day from now until next week, is a threat to make Iran yield. And how can negotiations resume when it's a battle? This battle is not just America striking Iran alone. Iran is also striking countries with US bases in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been hit, Kuwait has been hit. Here is a clip that clearly shows Iranian drones attacking Kuwait fiercely, as seen in the images. Missiles and drones from Iran. This is one of Kuwait's weapons depots, likely located near an arsenal or US base in Kuwait. Here are the scenes happening every day and night. America says it is moving forward, simply put, to destroy it completely. The messages Trump wrote are: 1. Retreat from collecting 20%. 2. Return to blockading Iran by sea. 3. Continue to strike and attack Iran relentlessly.
Meanwhile, he says that countries in the Arab Gulf will invest massively in America. There are machines, money, and various industries that the Arabs will invest in America. In fact, Trump previously said that there was already a flood of foreign capital. It's not about collecting 20% from cargo ships and oil tankers passing through Hormuz. When he decided not to collect, he said that Arab countries should invest in America instead. That 20% probably wasn't the real reason. Therefore, Trump's hasty retreat, taking the ladder down, was quite sudden and rushed. Because if he made the whole world see that America was going to be a bully collecting tolls, while also criticizing Iran for doing the same, it would be equivalent to the world's number one superpower going back on its word and doing what it condemned. However, the situation will become even more tense if we see that Trump is about to launch relentless attacks, and Trump is about to convert security into economic value. Everything Trump touches must generate money. So, it's about monetizing security. Originally, the world separated security and economics. But now Trump is combining the two. Trump is causing tremors to stability everywhere, from the stock market in New York to oil prices in our pockets. And if we look at the issues, we see that many things are overlapping, contradictory, and very difficult to understand. Just a few hours before the US announced it would blockade or block Iranian ports again, Trump employed a carrot and stick strategy. "Carrot and stick" is a diplomatic term that has been used for a long time. The carrot is the soft approach, the carrot is what is offered as temptation, as an incentive. There is a carrot that is just a scent, and there is a stick. If you don't eat what I give you, I will use the stick to beat you. Carrots and sticks always come together. Soft and hard approaches. Trump used this. By canceling the plan to collect a 20% fee from all cargo ships passing through the strait, it caused global panic. Just one night's announcement caused oil prices to skyrocket to over $80 per barrel, a 10% increase in one day, something not seen in 6 years. And on the same day, it caused global panic. So Trump changed, he changed immediately, flipping back and forth. Because there is a term still used in Wall Street circles: "T.A.R.G." T.A.R.G. means "Trump Always Retreats, Guys." It means that Trump, every time, believe me, he will back down, he will change his mind. Because what Trump often says comes from temporary emotions, anger. After saying it, he reflects, or someone next to him whispers, "What you said, you can't do. What you said is wrong." So Trump has to fix it. Or sometimes, no one needs to warn him. Trump knows that what he just said was just a threat. So, after saying it, within a few hours, he thinks, "Hey, I can't say that. How can I collect 20%?" So he changed to pressuring the Arab Gulf countries to sign massive trade and investment agreements. Trump used the word "massive" for the land of the United States. Trump reiterated his transactional diplomacy strategy. This is called transactional diplomacy. It sounds jarring, doesn't it? Diplomacy should not be about making money. Diplomacy should be about creating peace and tranquility. Why has diplomacy become about making profits? But for Trump, it's possible because of the social media posts. This post says, "I have decided to change the 20% refund fee to the United States into trade and investment agreements where various states, meaning countries in the Arab Gulf, will invest in America. These investments will be massive, and at the same time, it will be very good for them and their future." He's even reminding them of favors. He pressures and forces them to invest in his country, and then says, "If you invest in my country, you will be better off." Here, Trump still announces that America is the protector, the guardian of the Persian Gulf, along with its fleet. America is the protector. At the same time, the 60-day ceasefire and negotiations were torn up. The MOU was torn up. Because strategic analysts say we must observe the important timeline. Observe the timeline how? They say the US previously imposed naval blockades on Iran in April, before canceling them in June under an MOU to end the conflict. But conversely, they ordered the latest blockade, which completely destroyed the ceasefire agreement. There is no longer talk of a ceasefire. Trump claims the strait will be open to everyone, except Iran. But there is an interesting contradiction between Trump's statement that oil is flowing like never before and the actual information from the shipping sector, which says that navigation has almost come to a standstill. Because I looked at websites related to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, everything is stagnant. Everyone is shocked. Everyone is in a state of "What is happening? This is a big deal." Because the bottleneck figure for the Strait of Hormuz is the energy bottleneck. Because historical statistics have become mere memories. Because the severity of the current situation is reflected in shocking figures compared to the original strategic importance of this area. The statistics of the original flow, the original flow. In a situation where the Strait of Hormuz is important, it's a major artery for 25% of the world's crude oil and 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas. But now it's paralyzed. Because the latest shipping data shows that the volume of ships passing through the strait has reached its lowest point in two months. The past two days, it has shrunk because Trump announced attacks, announced he would seize the strait, and announced he would collect 20%. It has stopped completely. In two months, compared to yesterday and the day before, the fewest ships have passed. This is a direct result of Iran's retaliation after attacks by America and Israel. Therefore, the market reaction, Brent crude oil prices soaring immediately, reflects a lack of confidence in the statement that the situation is still under control. No matter what Trump announces, that he is in control, that everything is won, that he has struck devastatingly, no one believes it. Because he has been saying this all along. Every time Trump speaks, the market initially believes it. Initially, the market believed it, stock prices moved up, oil prices moved down. But as time passes, what Trump says and the reality on the ground are different. So you don't believe it anymore. When Trump speaks, you say, "Let's wait and see. Let's check. Will he change his mind? Will he reverse course?" It has become the behavior of news consumers and investors who say, "Don't be alarmed by Trump's first statement. Don't be happy either. You can't be alarmed, and you can't be happy. Because what Trump says has the purpose of sending a message to the other side, or sending a message to the stock market, or sending a message to the oil market. So, calm down, listen, and wait for action first. Because the situation has escalated to a full-scale military confrontation." US Central Command confirmed that the new airstrikes have a clear objective: to reduce Iran's capability to attack cargo ships. This means that if Iran has missile launch sites, drone launch sites, or armed speedboats in the Persian Gulf, they must be destroyed, rendering them incapable of doing so again. The attacks targeted several Iranian cities. America is targeting many cities, including a strategic city called Bushehr, which is also the location of a nuclear power plant. So, people are worried that this will lead to attacks on nuclear power plants, and whether radiation will leak, or if there will be an accident. This is alarming. Iran is not standing idly by. Iran has retaliated by firing at US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar. After the audacious attack on a UAE oil tanker, the tension has been escalating for over four months. But Trump tries to say, "Hey, America fought in the Vietnam War for 19 years. This is only four months." But these four months have been tough because they show that Trump cannot end this game. Trump cannot end this game. This is why it is shocking that if Trump continues to do this, it will prolong this game. Prolonging this game means that the tension will expand beyond the Middle East. The whole world is watching, because when Trump does something anywhere, it affects the whole world. Europe and Asia are rethinking that they can no longer rely on America like this. They must build their own networks. Europe must build European networks, and Asia must build Asian networks. And perhaps Asia and Europe will talk more, saying, "Let's trade with each other. Relying on America under Trump, sometimes he's hot-headed, sometimes he's cool. We cannot deal with a superpower that is sometimes hot and sometimes cold." Therefore, we will begin to see a new world order, which I believe is truly taking shape. It will be a formation where we will see that various countries will start talking about how we cannot let the world order be determined by Trump alone anymore. Whether they will move closer to China is a question of how much and in what way China will cooperate with us. Because Israel's stance must be closely watched, as Israel is a key variable that strengthens US policy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has once again announced a tough stance, saying that in response to the clashes on February 28th, from the first day, he emphasized that Israel is ready to escalate violence if attacked first. Israel will be attacked. People accuse Israel of starting a war with them. Netanyahu sent an online message directly to the Iranian leadership, saying, "I will tell the Iranian leaders, do not expect everything to be calm if you attack us." So, back and forth, what Trump is doing is transactional diplomacy. The shift in US policy from collecting a 20% fee to massive investment agreements from Gulf countries is clear. Transaction-based diplomacy. Diplomacy of any kind that Trump can use to persuade, pressure, or force countries to invest in America. The dollar has risen. Have you noticed that many countries have promised, with great fanfare, to invest billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars more in America? But in practice, it hasn't happened yet. Because when they made those promises, these countries were afraid of Trump, they didn't want to clash with Trump. So they said, "Okay, we will invest like this, we will build factories like that." For what purpose? So that Trump can announce, "See? In front of the media too. Trump likes to bring the media to the White House, and he sits at his desk to show his greatness as president. Various reporters will question him, and he will feel, "Hey, I'm on a roll now. Hey, leaders of this country and that country are shaking hands, right in front of me. The press conference is happening right now. Japan is investing so many billions, tens of billions. European countries have announced this and that. Asia has come. That country has come." To show that he controls the global game. But in practice, it's a different story, just like what we saw in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced free passage, that anyone can come, that oil is flowing. But when you actually check the Strait of Hormuz, check the websites, check real-time data, you can see how many ships are entering and exiting. Check the real thing, it's not like that. Trump announces one thing, but the reality is another. So people are starting to doubt how much they can believe. Because when Trump uses transactional diplomacy, it makes everyone start to question the rules. Because security has become a commodity. And this commodity must be paid for with protection money, pay to play. And the old world order is challenged by increasingly severe military blockades. So the question is, today, when the world's most important shipping route has become just a pawn in a business duel, how can we believe that global economic stability will truly occur? But if we analyze it realistically, it's Trump's diplomacy becoming a 24-hour policy. The issue of collecting a 20% toll. Now there's the term "24-hour diplomacy." It's causing global shockwaves because Trump is trying to find unconventional solutions to end the Iran war, which has dragged on for over four months. But the back-and-forth decisions reflect a situation where America is losing its bargaining power in the region. This will be evident even if Iran is battered and exhausted, and Iran is quite depleted. But Iran is holding on. Iran is using its endurance to buy time, knowing that Trump is under pressure every day, both from domestic politics, from rising costs, and from the fact that America's allies in the Middle East are being attacked daily. Don't think that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE are not feeling anything. They know that as long as Trump is at war, they will be targets of attack. Iran says, "We only attack American bases in your country. We are not attacking you." But it cannot be denied that the damage has a severe impact on these countries. This makes any country that thinks similarly, if Trump keeps changing his mind like this and prolongs the war indefinitely, they will have to think hard. What about being an ally of America in an uncertain future? It depends on Trump's decisions. Trump decides one way today, and another way tomorrow. Trump doesn't consult. He says, "I'm going to strike again, and they will strike you too. How will we defend ourselves and prevent damage from occurring?" If we are a country with American bases and Iran attacks us constantly, our question as both the owner of the country and the administrator of the country must be, "Is it worth it? And how long will it drag on?" We have oil, we have oil reserves, we have gas, but we can't sell it because we can't transport it through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if Trump says, "Ah, let's build new oil and gas pipelines, no need to cross the Strait of Hormuz." That has been discussed. There's a pipeline from Turkey to Syria that goes out another way without passing through this strait, or Saudi Arabia is trying to go down the Red Sea, that's another route. But it's not something that can be done overnight. It will take months or years to build. How much investment will it require? And will it be worth it? And will America invest? America won't spend money. America will say, under Trump, America will say, "You spend the money. We'll help you. We'll support you." So, it becomes a big question. What does Trump's flip-flopping, this 24-hour policy, mean? Now, America is losing its bargaining power in the region. It's as if, at this point, even though Trump makes strong declarations, it won't end. It will become an endless war. The thing Trump fears most is "The Endless War." Endless War means a war that never ends. When Trump started this conflict on February 28th, Trump denied it would be a war. It would end quickly, open quickly, close quickly. There would be no "Endless War," a war without an end. But this is showing similar symptoms. It is dragging down the global economy and the status of the United States as a superpower. So, this is where Trump is trying to turn the game around, changing diplomacy into commercial value. On Monday morning, at that time, Trump created panic by announcing a 20% fee on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it compensation for protection that America has always borne. But this is not just a simple demand for money. It is a structural contradiction because the original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) clearly stated that Iran must guarantee safety without charge. Therefore, Trump's attempt to convert security into revenue destroys all the logic that America itself used in negotiations. But just 24 hours later, Trump canceled this offer and instead proposed trade and investment agreements from the Persian Gulf countries. What is this? What does it mean? This sudden change in stance creates confusion, severe confusion. Especially when we remember that Trump's Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, had previously condemned Iran on the same issue very strongly. What did Pompeo say? Pompeo said, "No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees in international waters." Pompeo said, "That is existing international law, and it is what we expect to be practiced in this area as well," meaning in the Strait. This means that the MOU is now obsolete. Hope has become worthless paper. Because of the diplomatic efforts over the past month, it has completely collapsed. Trump announced "social truth," social, ending the ceasefire, returning to naval blockade against Iran again, launching a new wave of airstrikes. This decision makes the MOU, which was once called a victory for both sides, just another failed piece of history. The MOU is dead. Everything that was stated in that document has been destroyed. Therefore, forget about negotiations, refunds, unlocking frozen funds for Iran. Forget about Iran canceling uranium enrichment and not having nuclear weapons. Forget about reorganizing and having America withdraw from areas near Iran. Forget about Iran not supporting proxy groups and armed groups in Lebanon and Yemen. So, it's over. It's finished. But from a military perspective, America can continue to destroy Iran's ships, aircraft, and defense infrastructure. It is still destroying them. But there is a strategic stalemate because Iran still retains its ability to disrupt shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. This means Iran can still cause disruption. America can claim to be in control of the game, but Iran uses guerrilla tactics, asymmetric warfare. A small country can disrupt a giant country. Like an ant fighting an elephant. Because the air defense limitations are clear. There is a point on a mountain in Iran called "Pik Mountain," where the nuclear research facility is located under the rock. Trump threatened to attack this place, and it is still debated whether airstrikes can penetrate this strong natural defense. Therefore, this situation proves that even though Iran has weakened, it still has a trump card to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a paralyzed area at any time. So, forget about oil prices. We will still see them. We will continue to see oil prices remain high, around $80 per barrel, between $80-87, $80-90. So the whole world is still a hostage to the chaos caused by Donald Trump in his confrontation with Iran. This morning, the situation is still murky, and it's hard to say if there will be positive changes. I give it only a 40% chance of returning to negotiations. 60% is still fighting and pressure, and America insists on striking, as Trump threatened, "Tonight we will strike hard, tomorrow night we will strike hard, the night after tomorrow night we will strike even harder." And next week, Trump threatened to strike bridges and power plants. Trump said he would strike power plants as a last resort. We will know then. Striking power plants and bridges is an attack on civilian lives, not military. It is a sin, a karma, a violation of human rights, and will be accused of war crimes. No wonder we hear from American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that we will condemn the ICC. The ICC is the International Criminal Court. America does not accept the jurisdiction of the ICC. Because if someone sues, they sue at the ICC. America is a war criminal. This is what America fears, and America wants to avoid anyone suing America in the International Criminal Court for waging war with Iran. This is a very sensitive point for America. So, stay tuned to this situation, because every movement has an impact on the livelihoods of Thai people. Thank you to everyone who has been following. Goodbye.