Transcription
What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast. And it is a hell of a day to talk ball. A little bit of a new era here for the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast. Not only did you get a great new intro if you're watching with us here on YouTube, new graphics and all that. We also are welcoming our new friends here to the program. That's right. Finally making their Yahoo Fantasy Forecast debut. It is my guys, Josh Norris, Hayden Winkx. Boys, what's going on? Josh, since you're the oldest sign, I believe the oldest of the three of us, as you can tell.
[laughter]
I'm going to throw it to you first, Josh. What's my my good longtime friend Josh Norris? What's going on, man?
Well, I'm now going to report you to HR. I think that's some sort of violation you just incurred there. Uh, yeah. What a good note to start this off with. I am pumped. Uh, you just joined our show for the very first time as a co-worker yesterday, and so it's a home and home that I think Matt, we're going to do multiple times every single week from now until the rest of time.
Yeah, that's right. Hayden, it's good to see your uh you got the collared shirt notification here for the Winkx Norris debut on the forecast. What's going on, man? How you doing?
Stoked to be here. It's always weird to go on a show you've always been listening to. Feels like you just don't want to mess things up because you know this is the show I typically would be go listening to myself after this.
Yeah. [snorts]
Well, you know that's a high standard and I appreciate it. But I think we're going to do just fine because we got a fun topic here for your guys's debut episode. We've got 10 players that you two. That's right. I'm not doing any work on this. So this is going to be great. I just get to sit back and toss it between the two of you guys here. We've got 10 players that you guys are strongly against or avoiding at ADP right now. So Josh, you've got five. Hayden, you've got five. I believe there may have been some slight disagreement on the homework here.
Yeah. Hayden, how'd you interpret this prompt?
Well, strongly against ADP. I was like, that sounds negative. So, I went with five guys. I don't like their ADPs. So, I think we're going to do like a little good cop, bad cop here. So, if I come across very negative, then maybe go watch our channel where I talk positively about some players.
Yeah, this might be a bit of a setup. Uh, because I only selected players that I am well ahead of ADP on. So, like [clears throat] you said, it's the angel on the shoulder of each of your shoulders right now, Matt. Uh, that's why we're going to do this first show together.
Well, that's unfortunate. Yeah, we don't want to set you guys up as like the positive and the negative guys. So, yeah, definitely go check out the first episode I did with Josh and Hayden on their channel on their podcast feed because we're pretty much for the most part positive on all those year three guys. So, you know what, all three of us are are really brimming with optimism here. But well, since we are doing the optimism, let's start with Josh, your first player that you are strongly against ADP on heading into 2026.
Saquon Barkley. And look, this is a positive lens. Uh, he's being drafted right now when you just look at consensus as the running back eight. It's the 14th overall player. Matt, he's my seventh overall player this year. I think it's absolutely absurd that Saquon Barkley is being selected behind A.J. Brown on basically every single platform.
The key to everything for the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason is to get their running game back on track. Like you're going to hear about what can Shawn Menion pluck out of Jalen Hurts? Like how is DeVonta Smith going to step into the wide receiver one category that A.J. Brown left behind? What are Maalik Murphy, the rookie, and Eli Sterns, the other rookie, going to do this passing game? None of it matters unless Saquon Barkley gets back to some something close to what he did during the 2024 season. Uh, I think that this is actually incredible value that we're getting from Saquon because what he's going to do when he gets back on track is change the math. Like him being successful, not just with five, six yard gains, but getting back to 20, 40, 50 yard gains is that that's going to force defenses into single high and that's what makes the passing attack better. Not different play callers, not any of that. So to me, the entire 2026 season for the Eagles relies on Saquon Barkley, and I'm drafting him as such in all my leagues this season.
I see the same way. He's my 10th ranked player. I have him ahead of ADP. Um, I'm drafting him over one of the negative guys I'm going to talk about here in just a second. He scored one of 11 inside the five-yard line carries for touchdowns last year. That is an offensive line stat. Cam Jurgens wasn't himself. Landon Dickerson wasn't himself. Lane Johnson wasn't even out there for much of the season. And I'm just expecting better health on the offensive line. Losing Stoutland does stink, but I just think that the veteran presence across the entire offensive line just with better health this year. I think it's going to pay dividends for for Saquon Barkley.
Well, sounds like I'm a little closer to ADP and the kind of consensus thought, if not like a little bit behind. I have him as.
Yeah, I have him as my 16th overall player right now, Saquon Barkley. So, I guess Josh, I would just throw it to you this way, and I I'm glad you you are talking about this because we have not really spent enough time on this show talking about the changeover in the Eagles run game. We have, as you mentioned, fixated on what the passing game is going to look like with Shawn Menion, but do you have any concerns with Saquon Barkley? One, I guess, going into kind of the later stages of his career at this point, maybe some some small dips in the efficiency metrics last year that may or may not be meaningful, but two, like him being more of an outside zone runner in what I think this run game is going to look like after being, you know, historically much more like this is your gap, this is your hole, hit it and make those explosive plays.
Yeah, not really because I just think he's an elite talent that can do everything at a high level. Um, if you do look at some of the underlying metrics though, this past season, Saquon was 16th in rushing yards before contact in 2025. Obviously, that number was second in 2024. He was seventh in explosive runs this past season, which is still quite good with 58. Again, he was second in 2024 with 77 of those. That included touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. Whereas this past season, he only had two touchdown runs longer than 13 yards. So would I have loved Jeff Stoutland to again return and coach this group back to the big success? Yes. But do I also think that health and continuity and getting all these really good players back on track and again just having injury luck on your side is going to be an even bigger deal? 100%. And so Matt, I actually think that this is kind of akin to the value that we got with Christian McCaffrey this time last year. Like if you're going to ask me the one player who's drafted later who can finish as the overall best running back and is not being selected anywhere close to it, I think I'm going to go back to Saquon Barkley because we were drafting him as such 365 days ago.
I think it's a really good point just on we've seen him do it before. A lot of the guys that are kind of drafted around him at the one, two turn were hopeful that they can do that. Just the fact that he's done it before to me, I'm going to break ties in his favor. Well, you guys have given me a lot to think about. I don't know if I love that on your first episode here that I'm going to have to now like go and take a look at my rankings. That that makes me a little bit uncomfortable. Also, speaking of uncomfortable, Hayden, you talk about the the guy that you are going to bring up here in a negative sense. Um, I was just in Canton for the Fantasy Football Expo this weekend and I went with kind of a stars and scrubs approach in the salary cap draft for the Kings Classic League. One of those stars. This is one one of the players you're about to bring up here. So, this might make me a little bit uncomfortable, but let's hear it. Who's the first player you are strongly against ADP on?
I've got James Cook ranked like 14th, 15th, and on Yahoo, he's the 10th overall pick. So, when we're talking about the first and second rounders, like any difference at all, we should talk about because this is where leagues are largely won and lost. My problem with James Cook is I'm not expecting him to be a full-blown bust. I just fear that there's not a pathway for him to be a top three scorer at the position. Last year he led the NFL in carries per game at 19. Rushing yards per game 98. Yards per carry was at 5.1. So a great number. We know he's good. I just don't think that the volume's going to be there in terms of the goal line work slash the receptions. Last year, he was 39th in receptions per game at 1.9. And I think there's like reasons why that the Buffalo Bills are doing that. You add in the DJ Moore acquisition. I think some of like the potential for the receiving work could go to DJ Moore at this point. Josh Allen still a knucklehead at the five-yard line himself. And then we'll just throw maybe one little shade towards the Buffalo Bills. They lost their offensive line coach. They lost a veteran interior offensive lineman. You just never know when you're promoting an offensive coordinator to head coach. There's just maybe a little bit of uncertainty where the Bills have been first, second, or third in every single offensive stat over the last couple years. If they're seventh and he's not catching passes, I can see James Cook finishing as like the running back 10 this year. And I don't want to spend the 10th overall pick if it's going to be hard for me to beat the J.K. Dobbins team who's drafting in the one spot.
This is an interesting one. Um, I think I agree with your premise, Hayden, that he likely does not have a top three overall scoring back in his outcomes. At the same time, I think he's kind of fairly priced if you're not aiming for the stars.
I think you could argue from a strategy standpoint, you should be like shooting for the stars at that one, two turn. Uh, because as we have seen in recent years, some of the best players in fantasy football, you are still able to draft at 10, 11, 12, 13, whatever it is. Um, they also lost their left guard, you know, in free agency, went to the New Orleans Saints. So there's some continuity there. That's that's a big deal. And for as much conversation, we talk about Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push and scoring every single time from the one or two-yard line, Josh Allen is right on his heels, if not taking that crown maybe this year as well. So despite what James Cook scoring 18 and 14 touchdowns over the last two years, there is um a possibility that maybe he scores a few fewer and that would drastically change his outcome this season.
I guess I kind of disagree with the idea that he doesn't have a top three ceiling, although I I think those are some good points. One, I think offensive line continuity wise, like that's one starter that they've lost out of the the other four they're bringing back. You know, I think that's probably pretty good when we're talking about most of the offensive line continuity part of it. The other thing, um, I mean, look, if you just want to close your eyes and say, I'm getting the feature back from an offense that's going to moonwalk into the top five, top six as long as Josh Allen has a pulse, then I I feel pretty good about that, too. The last thing, and I don't want to just buy too much into, you know, camp reports and everything like that, but we just had Zane on last week doing like a training camp news recap update thing like that sort of episode. And I did like how he brought to the table a lot of reports that James Cook is going to be used more in the passing game this year. And normally I would kind of just throw that out as all right, that's what they say all the time. But it wasn't talking about like we're gonna line up James Cook in the slot, which Hayden, we know like that never happens. It was more about like Pete Carmichael's coming over here from the New Orleans Saints to be the offensive coordinator. Long time obviously he's with the Broncos, but long time with the Saints, the whole deal there. And that's the same coaching tree that Joe Brady comes off of. And they've made a lot of use of the running back as like the choice route guy out of the backfield. And I I think there is still a vacuum for a player like that in the offense. So, I've been looking at that kind of receiving upside for James Cook and like we haven't fully seen it yet. But remember like when they drafted James Cook, the whole thought process was like, well, we didn't get J.D. McKissic, like we got to get a receiving back in here. Let's take James Cook. To be fair, he's not been that player. He's actually been just a significantly better runner. But I don't know, Hayden, do you think I'm buying in too much to kind of like a theory here with a late first-round pick and that might be where I'm I'm going off base on this one. I think James Cook could catch the ball if they scheme him up. And like there is, you know, the the new OC coming in could lead that to to happen. I I think that the other thing we have to kind of account for is he's coming off of, you know, I hate to be like he came off a huge touch season. Like you want your running backs to touch the ball 342 times, but he did touch the ball 342 times last year as a 190-pounder. Like that it's one thing when you know Saquon is doing it all the time. you know, when someone that small is getting the ball that that often, like you do have to kind of worry if like they do want to give him the rock 350 times again this year.
Yeah, Matt, I also disagree with Hayden. He's still going to be my 12th overall player. I just you didn't I didn't want Hayden to like being in an island on this. I was trying to both sides it a little bit. Uh, but just to back up some of the stats, some of the stats. Hey, I got to back up my dude over here, you know. As Hayden said, he was second only behind CMC when you combine postseason touches and regular touches. And then something that you said Betrie Bar has written about where he's averaged nearly 20 fantasy points in games that Buffalo has won over the last two seasons, which is sixth most compared to 10 fantasy points in losses, which is running back 26. Obviously, we expect the Buffalo Bills to be really good and win a whole bunch of games. But it goes to what you're talking about that unless he is being used more often in the passing game, I think it was like 49% of his passing snaps last year that James Cook played, then yeah, some of those negative game script moments, he gets phased out a bit more often.
Yeah, I mean, regardless of whether we agree or disagree, I think we can all certainly agree that like breaking ties in the first round is really important. Like you got to get these picks right and if you can get a big hit here that is pretty significant. But let's leave kind of this first-round headliner pick range here Josh for your next guy and let's get back on the positivity track. Who are you against ADP on for your next player?
Terry McLaurin, old faithful here. Uh, he's being drafted as wide receiver 24, 55th overall. Matt, I am as the 38th overall player at wide receiver 20. So, considerably higher than than consensus. Um, just overall when we're in these summers talking about the same thing for multiple months, I actually think there's a hidden edge in correctly predicting how new play callers are going to impact, you know, new offenses and especially veterans that we all think we have figured out. Uh, maybe there's a bit of an untapped section of their game that hasn't been utilized in these last two years. And I think Terry McLaurin is the perfect example of that. Uh, we know two years ago when Kliff came in and really simplified this Commanders offense, it was good. It worked out. Then it got super stale last year and everything worked against them, especially injuries to Jalen Daniels. But with Terry, it's just kind of been like, and you know this, Matt, from drafting him, like so stale for multiple seasons. I mean, he played left wide receiver, I think, on the line of scrimmage on the outside 74% of the time. I mean, it's so static. And what do we talk about so often when talking about the best wide receivers across the league? It's that outside to inside versatility. It's getting them in motion. It's getting them into stacks. It's giving them free releases and extra space so they can really really utilize their skills to accentuate that and make it even better. You could argue that Terry's never gotten that. And so in this offense that he is clearly the best target getter and target earner, uh, I think that Kliff Kingsbury, despite calling his plays for the first time, has a real chance to put Terry McLaurin in like top 20, top 15 in terms of like true opportunity at a wide receiver one spot this season.
That would be lovely if it comes true. He's he's played 23 games with Jalen Daniels. He's the wide receiver 14 on wide receiver 26 usage. That's using the full PPR scoring there and obviously in half PPR is a little bit better because his eight odds way down the field. I'm hopeful that's the case. They still don't have anybody else to throw the ball to here. So kind of where I have him ranked is the like all those guys, you know, A.J. Brown, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, like the guys that can have 150-plus targets. I have those guys ranked ahead and then like the boom-bust here, which is, you know, Christian Watson, Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Romeo Doubs, Mike Evans types. I think you can make a good case that Terry McLaurin belongs at the very top of that as like a really strong fourth-rounder. That's pretty much exactly how I see it. He's kind of the headline guy for me in that tier of players. Like the there is more volatility there. But I mean, yeah, you're not going to get a lot of pushback from me on positive Terry McLaurin agenda. And I love the point you brought up, Josh, about it's we all know this that it's the static kind of just one side of the field deployment with Jalen Daniels and and Kliff Kingsbury the last couple years for Terry McLaurin. But I mean, this really does date back deep into Terry's career. Like I just taped a video for my personal YouTube channel talking about like Nico Collins, how he has real like outlier deployment as a number one receiver as just pretty much only used at the X receiver position. And when you look back like the historic comparisons of guys that are that X-heavy like Terry pops up so many times because that's just like all he was doing even prior to Kliff Kingsbury getting there. Like you could argue that this is going to be the most dynamic deployment that Terry's ever seen in his entire career. He's a good player. Should be able to own a ton of targets in this offense. And as long as Jalen Daniels is healthy, he's tethered to a good quarterback. So Josh, I think this is another kind of one you don't have to think too hard even if he let you down last year due to some circumstances.
Yeah. And part of the reason he let you down is I think we have enough evidence at this point over the last few years, Matt, that if you hold out during training camp and don't get the time on task and reps, that impacts your season. And we've seen injuries happen because of it. We've seen slow starts happen because of it. It's exactly what happened with Terry McLaurin. Um, and yeah, I mean, it's not just, you know, moving him around. I just think this offense, everything that you read from J.P. Finlay or whoever else out there covering the Commanders, Ben Standig, like you're going to get a more balanced offense. You're going to get more motion, you're going to get more play action. These are all the easy buttons for wide receiver production again that Terry just hasn't had. And I swear the first sentence that Kliff Kingsbury uttered when taking over as the play caller for this team, he said, "How do we get Terry McLaurin 10 targets per game?" Yes, I'll take that. I'll do that every single week. Uh, and I think there's a possibility we approach that this season.
Yeah, I'll take the under on, you know, 170 targets if we're doing the 10 per game. But I like the intention, the stated intention from Kliff Kingsbury, who I I'm pretty Kliff curious, uh, as well. Hayden, we we'll come back to you for your next one. And I think of all the ones that are on the list here, this is going to be the least popular with the people out on social media, the people in the comments section. So, let's hear it. Who's your player that you're strongly against ADP on?
I have Amari Cooper ranked 22nd. He goes 17th on Yahoo. I'm looking across all the Yahoo rankers. We got six of them right now. And there's people on good sides here where we have people in the top 12. And then Matt and I, it looks like we're a little bit lower on Amari Cooper. This one I can see going either way. I'm just looking at the second round and I see a lot of running backs who have done this before. And I'll throw in the Brock Bowers, Drake London types at wide receiver and tight end that I think I would rather go with than Amari Cooper who I view as extremely boom-bust. I thought last year you saw the explosiveness. I like that with Mike McDaniel. In theory, the Chargers offensive line could be actually good rather than like the worst in the league. And at the same time, there is a history of a committee backfield approach. They got Keaton Mitchell back out there. I think that Kamari Vidal is a really good pass protector. I thought that was one area going back to the Cooper film. I thought he really struggled in pass protection while being very good as a receiver. So, he could be one of these profiles where you dial him up a couple times, but he's not playing all the snaps that we're typically seeing from like someone like Chase Brown who goes right next to him in ADP who just does not come off the field all that much. So, uh, I like Cooper. I'm just worried that he's not quite as good as I was hoping for last year. And I think that some of the safety of like the Drake London types out there where it's hard to find that like really stable wide receiver one right now. And I think that those type of guys um leave me a they made me feel a little bit safer than the Amari Cooper boom-bust nature of this.
Yeah, you guys have done this for long enough where it can be sometimes difficult to separate what you think about a player versus the awesome environment that he's in. And sometimes you shouldn't like sacrifice your individual view of a player. And like I I don't love Amari Cooper as an individual talent compared to a whole bunch of people that view him as you know an elite player. He is so big and so fast and that combination can be so good. He does have some other elements as Hayden outlined that I I don't totally love. But you know what I do love is freaking Mike McDaniel and his rushing schemes. And this is one of those situations where I believe that Amari Cooper's going to get the first crack at it. I'm hoping that the Chargers offensive line is healthy entering the season, especially with their tackles and their new center. If that's the case, I trust in Mike McDaniel's again schematics here to put Amari Cooper in a position to succeed. And when that's the case, good running back scoring has been produced from this offense, right? Right. I mean, 2025, the running back five in points per game. 2024, running back 11 in points per game. 2023, we've got got both the running back three and four in points per game. Mike McDaniel's offense is ranked fifth in yards per rush for running backs, fifth in success rate, and first in explosive run rate. So, again, I have individual reservations about Amari Cooper, and yet I am still ranking him as a top 14 talent this year just because I don't want to be out on Mike McDaniel's offense really at any point in drafts this year.
Yeah, it's tough to like it's tough to be kind of a little lower on Amari Cooper. I think at like running back-wise, I can hear an argument to have him ahead of like A.J. Dillon, ahead of Chase Brown, who I've currently got him kind of with those players. I'm I'm not totally strongly like strongly holding that opinion. But Hayden, I don't know if you see it the same way, but like when I look at him versus some of the receivers that go in the second round, that's where I've had a tough time boosting him up the overall rankings. Like to me, I just feel really good about the receivers in that range, in that tier, and that's where I've had the hardest time getting him up the overall rankings.
Yeah, I guess I view him closer to like the Jeremiah Love area rather than like the Saquon Barkley. Right now, the ADP is just closer to the Saquon Barkley tier. It's just there's obviously I'd rather have Cooper because the the offense is is so much better than Arizona's. But I I just don't think that those stats coming from the Devin Singletary stuff from the Miami are necessarily going to translate for for the Chargers. I really love the McDaniel stuff, but like some of that stuff is because Devin Singletary is one of the best running backs in the NFL. So, I it's mostly the Drake London, Brock Bowers. I I feel way better about that. I think Nico Collins is right in that conversation for me as well where I would rather spend my second-round pick on that tier of wide receiver if I did miss out on the running back targets I actually do like in the beginning part of the second round.
Yeah, I can totally see how this doesn't work. Like at the end of the season, if you tell me that, you know, Amari Cooper finishes as the 22nd or 30th best player in fantasy football or even worse than that potentially, then I can go back to my thoughts right now and say it's because of this reason and that reason. At the same time, I also think this is one of those players if everything hits right, then you have like a real difference maker in fantasy. And if we're trying to win our league and be, you know, top one, top two, top three, and like get to the championship and contend for the finals, I think like this type of an environment and a player that fits in the environment has a chance of like being one of the true difference makers in fantasy football this year.
It's a really good argument. It's a really good argument that I think you can kind of come down on both sides here on this one because I have zero ecosystem concerns with Amari Cooper. Like I just taped the top 10 offenses show with on Football 301 with Nate and I had the Chargers at seven, he had the Chargers at three. Like we're gassed up about the Chargers offense overall. Obviously Nate even more so than I was. And I think it comes down to just like we view on Amari Cooper as a player. So I think that's going to be like an evolving conversation over the course of August. But for now, a question real quick.
Yo, go ahead. Go ahead. Yep.
If you're lower on Amari Cooper, does that mean you're higher on Keaton Mitchell or is it just the split in this backfield you're just not into at all?
I mean, um, Keaton Mitchell, it's fine. Like, you want to take him in the late rounds, cool. I I don't [laughter] I think he will be an interesting player that is sprinkled in. I wonder if this team is just more pass-heavy than we're kind of projecting because I think they are quietly kind of loaded with obviously they have a really good number one receiver in my opinion in Ladd McConkey, but I think their role players around, yeah, in the receiver room are interesting. Like Trey Harris is an interesting third receiver. QJ is better than people think he is even if he's a flawed player. Brennan Thompson I think could get sprinkled in. Like they've got three tight ends that could roll out here. So that's been kind of my concern with the Chargers is that I actually think they're going to be a little more pass-heavy than maybe people think.
I just had to ask that Keaton question because you know on Twitter that's the entire conversation. It's one or the other and they aren't going to coexist. But I I think Keaton's going to kind of have his role and then it's the Amari Cooper and if he doesn't work out then kind of Kamani Vidal fits into that stuff.
Yeah. Get the Keaton Mitchell name in here. Spoken like a true SEO professional. Josh Norris right there. Okay. We are going to take our first quick break. We come back, we continue to roll through some players Josh and Hayden are against ADP on. We'll get into that right after this.
All right, we're back. We talked to Keaton Mitchell in the previous segment. That's a buzzy Twitter player. This guy is also very buzzy on Twitter, basically every single week that I see. This is Josh's third player that you wrote against ADP on.
Let's hear it. Yeah. And again, this is the positive side of the conversation. Um, Parker Washington, drafted as wide receiver 39. So that's around 91st overall right now.
I have him 69th. Um.
He's the highest ranked Jaguars wide receiver for me. And I don't think that that's a hot take. I mean, he finished last season as their best pass catcher. Matt, just when going back and re-watching him in preparation for this, like he wins small in terms of I think quickness and some yards off the catch. And he also wins big in terms of tight window targets and especially those big massive crossing routes over the middle of the field that Liam Cohen really designs so many things around. Like that is arguably the most important route that Liam Cohen draws up on a weekly basis. Um, and then you can just look at, you know, since what, week nine of last season, game number nine for them, when Jacobe Myers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Parker Washington were all on the field, Parker Washington led the team with 31% of the target share and had 3.17 yards per route run. So, he plays in the slot, he plays in the outside, he plays in two wide receiver sets, he plays in three wide receiver sets. Uh, and to me, once he gets an extension during training camp, cross your fingers, uh, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to climb up boards prior to week one.
I'm looking at all of our rankings and five of of the six of us have him ranked ahead of the 98th overall that he is on Yahoo. I just think that's that's way too low of an ADP. We're all way higher than that. He finished way higher than that once he was a starter. I think his film is good. He's tough. He's got yards after the catch ability. You can work him over the middle. So, uh, I think he's just a tier above the Jacobe Myers of it all. And I think that a lot of the offense will go to Parker Washington over the middle and then Brian Thomas obviously over the top. And I think those are the two wide receivers that you want in Jacksonville. And then I think I'm going to be personally fading Jacobe Myers just because I think Parker Washington does similar things. I just think at a step ahead in terms of his his pace on the field.
Yeah, funny enough here, Josh, I actually have Parker Washington ranked higher than you among wide receivers, but he is the second Jacksonville receiver for me because as we talked about last week on your or earlier this week on your show, with Brian Thomas Jr. He to me, I think if there's going to be like a massive hit from this receiver room, it will be BTJ. I think he just because he's the X receiver, he's going to be on the field all the time. We've seen the highest highs from him among the wide receivers here in the NFL so far in this receiver room. But I I mean, that doesn't mean you have to dislike Parker Washington because even if you do think as I do, it is kind of going to be a receiver rotation. You still want to take your shots. Like I compared this room to the Packers in previous years where it's a bunch of guys rotating and you know somebody's coming on and off the field. I do think that's going to happen this year for these guys. But you still take your shots on that room. Okay. Because what if I'm wrong about that and it is just, you know, Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington on the field all the time attached to an offense that I mean, does anybody not think this Jags offense is going to be good this year? Year two of Liam Cohen, Trevor showing some good signs last year. So, how I I'm just curious, Josh, when you went back and watched Parker Washington, like how good of a player do you think he is? Like where like real life NFL receiver wise, where could he rank?
I mean, isn't this a question for me to ask you? Cuz he like probably didn't fit into a bucket for you to ever chart until this offseason, right? Like year three wide receivers.
Chart him as a prospect cuz I'm a I'm a I'm a sicko.
Sicko. [laughter]
Absolutely. But but even as a prospect, I mean, we talk about athleticism. He he fell through the cracks yet he is an incredible athlete and you see that I think on the field and he has a developing game. Like the more time he got on the field, Matt, I thought he improved as a player. And we we talked about this on our channel yesterday that you know so often we are drafting players based on you know the final seven, eight games and maybe I'm being guilty of that this time with Parker Washington because prior to Travis Hunter's injury, Parker only had 17 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown in seven games and then afterwards, you know, he just leads the team with 640 receiving yards, 41 receptions and four touchdowns in the final 10 games. So, uh, again, yeah, maybe I am looking myself in the mirror and being like, why would you do this? And I am doing it. Uh, and I'm also pulling like the true fantasy ranker card here and going back to back with Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. in my rankings.
Oh, yeah. The hedge rankings, baby. Listen, you're you're uncomfortable. You're uncomfortable. This is That's how I have the Bears this year. I've got them the the hedge ranking as well. And I I did have to move Romeo Doubs ahead of Luther Burton after Hayden mogged me. He romogged me on the show yesterday. So [laughter] I I couldn't.
I knew I was coming too.
I couldn't stand for that. That that that can't be allowed to happen. But yeah, just last word on Parker Washington. The only thing I actually would kind of give like give your argument more credence here, Josh, is that I don't think what happened with Parker Washington before Travis Hunter's injury really matters because he wasn't playing as a slot receiver. Then he was playing a lot, but it was as an outside kind of reserve receiver. He didn't crack 40% of the snaps in the slot until after Travis Hunter got hurt during the bye. He didn't crack 60% until week 15. And if you I hate to do this stuff, but I I did do it in his profile. So, I'll do it anyways. Whatever. If you just look at the games where he did play over 60% of snaps in a slot, he had like an 85th percentile success rate versus zone coverage. So, like I think they found the right role for him to be, you know, I he's I've called him Bud Light Golden Tate in his prospect profile. Now, I just kind of think he's full ABV Golden Tate. That's the player he most reminds me of. So, Hayden, let's let's get to your third player. That was too way too much positivity on Parker Washington. Let's get negative here again.
Yeah, I got Rico Dowdle. He goes 78th overall. That just feels pretty rich. This one just feels fragile to me just based off of the the Steelers offense, obviously the Aaron Rodgers of it all, and then just looking at the tendencies from Mike McCarthy. He's has 24 seasons as an offensive coordinator, head coach, which is, by the way, that's insane. On average, his offenses have finished 11th in pass attempts, 18th in rush attempts. They do want to do the three wide receiver set stuff. They do want to pass the ball quickly. I just think that that all seems like more Jaylen Warren to me than Rico Dowdle. He's gonna get some snaps here, but if he's going to be like the closer, I'm not sure if the Steelers are like a good enough team where that's going to be a reliable role necessarily. Uh, he has some history with Mike McCarthy, but a lot of that was as a change of pace runner. I think that Jaylen Warren is a better all-around talent. You look at the money he got, $5 million guaranteed, that's less than like the Chris Rodriguez is of the world. So, I just think that Jaylen Warren's going to be the guy that you have to choose between Warren or Dowdle. I like Warren. I think he's a better scheme fit here. You look at what Kenneth Gainwell was able to do last year. I think Warren's gonna absorb a lot of that and still be a a nice one-two tandem on the ground here. So, Rico Dowdle just feels a little bit fragile to me and I want to spend my running back picks ahead of the the Rico Dowdle range this year.
Yeah, I I totally agree with that. Uh, I will add in a moment of honesty here, I have no idea how to rank Steelers in general other than Michael Pittman Jr. because he can just do what they asked DK Metcalf to do last year.
Um, I mean, I just looked I I am lower than everyone else, all of you and our other colleagues on Jaylen Warren. I'm lower than all of you. Also, on Rico Dowdle. That's probably the case here with DK Metcalf at the same time. Matt, it might go back to like I just don't want to watch the Steelers every single Sunday. Like that offense is brutal from an entertainment standpoint and maybe that's just infiltrating my brain here. My only thing is there is a lot of history and you touched on it, Hayden, but you know Mike McCarthy gave Rico Dowdle the ball 275 times back in 2024 and he finished as the running back 26 in points per game. And you know I last season we got the 200-plus rushing yard performances on multiple occasions. I'm not sure if that's going to happen this year on the Steelers with the Jaylen Warrenness of it all.
It took forever for Mike McCarthy to even get Rico Dowdle involved though that season that he did have a thousand yards. Like that took a I remember that cuz I we on the show talking about it constantly. Maybe they should just get Rico Dowdle involved. Like it's enough already with Zeke and I and those other guys. So.
Yeah. I honestly my follow-up question to you guys was going to be is there any Steelers player you're proactively drafting? Because um, like I would say no for me. Like sometimes I fall ass backwards into Jaylen Warren because like I need kind of a second running back and a hero running back build sometimes if like I'm going heavy running back early. I need just somebody to be a warm body in the receiver. I find myself to Michael Pittman, but sounds like the answer is no for Josh and Hayden. Is there any Steeler you're you're flag planting here?
Not DK Metcalf, worried about the Michael Pittman. I don't think Michael Pittman's good enough to clear the bar either. I think the one is it's just Jaylen Warren, but I like the range that he goes. It's kind of like the last call of running backs to me where you have Chuba, Rhamondre, Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard. Those guys are going to be in your flex spot, I can guarantee it, to start the season. And I think all of them are capable enough players individually where they can keep that the entire season. All of a sudden, there's other injuries around them and they finish as the running back 20 on the season. So, to me, that's where I like and then also that range, those wide receivers feel risky to me. And then we get down to the Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs, Matthew Golden, all that type of tier at wide receiver the next couple rounds. I kind of like where Jaylen Warren is going and I just don't like it where Dowdle is.
Making decisions at last call. When has that ever gone wrong for anyone before? Josh, let's get to your fourth player here, that you're against ADP on.
Let's talk Sam LaPorta. I don't think Sam LaPorta has gotten any attention from anyone this offseason, and I want to change that. All right. He's going as tight end 8 around 77, 78 overall. Uh, I have him as a tight end six. So when you look at the three quarterbacks who have targeted the tight ends at the highest rate over the last three seasons, so 2023 through 2025, two played for Drew Petzing, one played for Kevin Stefanski. So that's Jacoby Brissett at 34%, Kyler Murray at 34%, and Jordan Love at 32%. So yes, one interpretation of that is well, those first two guys threw to Trey McBride. He's pretty freaking good. And then the last one, Jordan could only throw to Tucker Kraft and that was the entire offense. I'll come at it from a different angle. I'll say it's a foundation of the tree of where this offense comes from. Norv Turner, Kevin Stefanski, Drew Petzing, that the tight end is the primary read on a number of concepts. You can go back to 2023 and David Njoku nearly led the Browns in targets that year. So we have already have a season under our belt where Sam LaPorta finished as the tight end one points per game, albeit a down season for tight ends that year. But this is another case, Matt, where we have already have a ton of veterans on this roster and we have a new play caller coming in after a failed one last year. And who's going to benefit the most from it in an.
offense that's probably going to score a bunch of points? To me, that's Sam LaPorta of this group. Other than, you know, the obvious Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs of where they're being drafted, I like when these players are being drafted kind of where their baseline is and then if something happens to one of the top guys, they absolutely go crazy. Like if something happened to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta would be very much a top threeish fantasy tight end. And Jamo, I'll say Jamo too, Hayden, because I think there's like some on-and-off splits of when Jamo doesn't have a good game, that means Sam LaPorta has a good game. Yeah, I really like him in baseball where you don't have to predict when he's going to have his his touchdowns and when they're falling behind on the scoreboard. I also want to mention the defense is like still very much up in the air in Detroit. Their secondary is just they cannot dodge injuries and jail time on that side of the ball. So, this can be a shootout team. The entire division is completely stacked here. So, I think taking your chances on Sam LaPorta is interesting. I did want to make one kind of note just big picture. There's like 10 uh tight ends on Yahoo who have ADPs inside the top 100. Just in general, the tight ends go way earlier on Yahoo than anywhere else. And I'm trying to figure out exactly what that means. I think I'm kind of translating that as like, let's just get Brock Bowers on the team then. If like we're drafting Tyler Higbee in the fourth round and Sam LaPorta is going in the fifth round, like let's just pay the premium on Brock Bowers uh in the second round and break ties that way. But it is just interesting and we'll get to my guy next. Like they're like all being drafted in the 50s and 60s and then everywhere else they're being drafted closer to 80s to 115 overall. So just a kind of a trend across Yahoo in general.
Yeah, Matt, I think that's from the mindset of I need to build out my full starting lineup so I feel like comfortable with a week one starting lineup. So rather than take your running back three or your tight end or your wide receiver four, it's, you know, filling that tight end slot. One final point here. This entire offseason has been about, you know, heavy personnel sets and 13 personnel and how all these teams are drafting tight ends high. Um, I would argue that Drew Petting was at the forefront of 13 personnel. You know, I'm not going to say Sean McVay took it from him, but that's the case when you look at it. Like Drew Petting has the third most plays of 13 personnel over the last two seasons, including the second most passing plays and tied for the most 15-plus yard passing plays out of it at 28 15-plus yard gains. So look, I I am not saying that the majority of this offense is going to take Jameson Williams off the field or else Lions fans are going to yell at me. But in that case, when they do and it's Amon-Ra St. Brown, I think the other direction that targets are funneled to is going to be Sam LaPorta and that could be some major explosives for him too.
Yeah, I I I don't I actually have Sam LaPorta exactly where you have Josh from like an I have him as Tight End six. Uh so and and I want to be taking Sam LaPorta this year. I don't want to overindex too much on the Drew Petting part of this because and this is totally my theory. I could be very much wrong about this, but my guess is that Drew Petting here is mostly to fix a run game that I thought was kind of putrid under John Morton last year cuz like the passing game generally looked the same from the Ben Johnson era to last year because I think Dan Campbell's like the guiding force there. But even if you want to say that like the the reason you get to do sort of a choose your own adventure with Jameson Williams as to like why he had these massive first half second half splits where in the first half of the season he was targeted on fewer than 16% of his routes run. It's like, oh, was that Dan Campbell taking over the play calling or was that because Sam LaPorta got hurt? Because in the first nine weeks of the season, Sam LaPorta was way more involved in the offense than Jameson Williams. So, I say that to say like I don't even think you need to do the Drew Petting like his history stuff to say Sam LaPorta is a really good pick because he's already an excellent player within this own offensive ecosystem. But that's that's a tight end it sounds like we all like Sam LaPorta. Hayden, you're going to talk about a tight end here that you do not like relative to ADP. Well, I love watching him. I love them as a prospect. It's Harold Fannon. I just can't get behind drafting a Browns tight end 70th overall, you know, and then collectively as a unit here, we have him ranked 89th overall. That's closer to where I have him. He's going to get the rock plenty. He's a I think a sensational yards after the catch player. Uh but I think the big question is Kevin Stefanski was willing to make uh kind of exceptions to Harold Fannon, the blocker. Is Todd Monkin going to do that? Do they have another blocking type? If they remove Harold Fannon from like, you know, 10% of of the snaps because they don't trust him to be the like inline blocker, those kind of things matter to me. Also, you add uh C.J. Stroud, who first round wide receiver, who collectively we all absolutely loved him. Uh Denzel Boston's kind of interesting. Um and you still have the same offensive line and quarterback concern. So, I like Monkin individually. I thought uh you have history with Brock Bowers at Georgia. you had history obviously with both the Baltimore tight ends last year. I think he's a decent play caller here. He does seem so old school that he might be kind of having this conflict where he's like, "All right, I like Harold Fannon the receiver here, but what he provides for me in terms of the run game and the blocking, I'm not sure if he's going to be able to make all the exceptions that we need him to be, if he is going to go 70th overall, right next to the Jaylen Warren type of players who are going to average five, six more points per game uh in in half PPR."
Yeah, Matt. Uh going back and watching Harold Fannon, I I did have major questions about the blocking and I think in maybe another offense that would be more of a big deal. But then you look at the depth chart here for the Browns and after him it is some guy named Blake Whiteheart, then a rookie fifth rounder and Joe Royer then Jack Stoll, Carson Ryan, and then uh you have a fullback in Michael Burton. So, I just like don't know if they have a chance to remove Harold Fannon from like and that that was the big frustration Monkin over the last couple years, right? It was, hey, is this going to be a likely week? Is this going to be an injuries week? Is it going to be no one? Because they just rotate all these tight ends. I don't think he has that option at this moment with how the depth chart stacks up at tight end.
Yeah, Monkin has been such like a offensive chameleon over the course of his long career now at this point. kind of based on who he's like his offenses at Georgia super different than the kind of grip it and rip it offense that he had with like Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick and during those really fun Tampa Bay Buccaneers years which is really different by the way than what we saw with the Ravens under Lamar Jackson. So, I wasn't too worried about the idea that Fannon might not be on the field as much. But, Hayden, your point about like the receivers being added here, Boston, C.J. Stroud, that I think is the the reason I'm lower than this uh on Fannon as well is because typically we just like don't see offenses run through the tight end like we saw last year with the Cleveland Browns. And usually that happens because the receivers aren't any good. We we'll see what these guys are. Obviously, rookies coming in the NFL, but even like Jerry Jeudy might be I mean, he can't be any worse than he was last year, honestly. But like C.J. Stroud being in here is an upgrade. Boston is an upgrade. Like I I I worry that the target total, even if the snaps don't come down, Hayden, I worry that the target total is coming down for Harold Fannon.
Especially because I think C.J. Stroud could he's like one of the receivers that could just straight up do it all where I think he can be involved as the underneath guy. Some of the manufactured touches that Fannon was obviously very good at. And I think there's like very real competition just in that part. And then Denzel Boston's a six-foot-four guy who could jump and that might be the red zone threat. They're not going to get to the red zone very often. Then you like worry about the all right the last month of the season like who's going to be starting quarterback for the for the Browns there. Like you just never know what the situation's going to look like. So yeah, like if it's Jalen Green, then it's like forget it. Like the whole [laughter] the whole thing is done. So that's where I'm just looking at the other guys. I just would rather punt tight end and like actually draft like just give me Mark Andrews plus Dalton Kincaid like rounds after and I would rather go through that mess than like I think the 70th overall pick is like still a semi-premium uh pick in fantasy.
Yeah, it's it's tough. I I have [clears throat] been suspiciously like really hopeful about Shador Sanders who was no good last year obviously because I'm just so no I mean not from like a I'm not personally invested but I'm personally invested in these receivers like we talked about C.J. Stroud in Boston. I'm less like honestly I just think Shador's their best hope which is tough to say but that's how low I am on Watson and that's how fearful I am that why like we might get to week 15 and Todd Monkin is ah let's see what happens with old Tailon Green out there and again like like Hayden said very well forget it at that point uh if it's Tailon Green getting a couple starts at the end of the season but we're going to take our last quick break of the show we come back we've got two more players these guys are strongly against ADP on we'll get into that right after this all right we're back. We've got two more players to talk through here that these guys are strongly against ADP on, including Josh, your next one. And I'm going to throw it to you like this. I honestly have I don't I have like no strong feelings about this player this year as a as a entity and um yeah, and fantasy. So, let's hear it. Where are you at with Matthew Bergeron, Green Bay Packers wide receiver?
I mean, I'm kind of along the same lines as you. I've never been the most pro Matthew Bergeron guy. I know some people had him as like the wide receiver one or two in his draft class. I wasn't one of those people. Um but I I just think like the 12th round is just way way way too late. I mean, he's being selected as wide receiver 53 and 142 overall. Uh I have him in the top 100. Um because this is just an offense I I want to take dart throws on and you know getting him in the 10th, 11th, 12th round is an awesome dart throw. [clears throat] like as a rookie, he played 72 snaps in one or two wide receiver sets. You know this Matt, uh Jayden Reed in his career has only eight plays in one or two wide receiver sets. Um and so Matthew Bergeron to me, >> while he is kind of an on the ground player who other than I think it was one catch against the Cincinnati Bengals, didn't show a lot to me after the catch. There's also that one against the Chicago Bears as well. I still think we aren't giving enough credence to him having the ability to improve in his second year. Uh first round pick who has blazing speed who if he just came down with one fingertip grab in those opening handful of games when he was healthy, we'd have a totally different opinion of him and he didn't and then he got hurt and didn't play. And so we're just getting a major discount on a player with flaws but someone Matt I think at this price and Hayden uh that I think could see massive improvements in year two.
Yeah, I think this is just a screaming value. It's a dart throw. You can drop him if he doesn't do anything, but I like former first rounders on good offenses. Like usually we're drafting these guys in like the 60s, 70s and like we're talking about after pick 100, like well after pick 100 uh on Yahoo in particular right now. So I like the upside swing on a route basis. I mean 16% targets per route. It's not terrible. 1.4 yards per route. This isn't terrible. Those aren't great numbers, but there there were some coaching comments saying like he wasn't fully grasping the playbook. That's the type of thing where hopefully in the second season things just begin to slow down. They start manufacturing some touches to him. I think he can be a good yards after the catch player. Like he's got a little bit of density to somebody how how fast he is. Um so I wouldn't be too surprised if he had a couple more moments this year after the catch and that one play that he scored that touchdown. He did break many tackles on that one. So maybe I'm dreaming of this upside that is like really tantalizing, but I think typically we draft this type of profile way earlier. I think the reason we we don't talk about him is because he wasn't like the spreadsheet uh spreadsheets darling as a college prospect. Um so I think a lot of people were like, "Hey, I told you he stinks. I remember I told you that as as a prospect." Um and I think it's far too early into his career uh to to be coming up with with those assumptions.
Yeah, I was kind of like a Matthew Bergeron Centrist and I I still find myself to be like a Matthew Bergeron Centrist, I guess, a little bit. I had him wide receiver five in his draft class. Uh behind obviously Hunter was a wild card, but T-Mac, IA, Burden, uh had those guys all ahead of him. Fine, like same tier prospect as Burden. And then like his rookie year film just didn't move me one way or another. Like it wasn't so good that I was like, I can't believe they didn't get this guy involved. And it wasn't so bad that I'm like that look that that that's a future bust right there. But all that to say, Josh, I mean, yeah, the ADP is just who cares? Take the shot because it is still a guy who should be an every-down player, at least pretty close to it on an offense that >> I think could be worse this year. Like I I do think the Packers as a team could take a step back. I'm a little worried about them just roster-wise in that really strong division. But even if that's the case, like they're going to have to throw the football more, which I think is actually good news for all of these receivers here.
Yeah. I mean, just a closing thought, the frustration has been in previous years of the Packers is you don't know from a week-to-week standpoint who the ball is going to, who's going to be on the field in what scenario. These three guys in Christian Watson, Matthew Bergeron, and Jayden Reed have to be on the field or else something went terribly, terribly wrong. And and I think Matthew Bergeron's the type that if we get to week one and he has one or two or three nice catches either in training camp, these joint practices, or in preseason games, then like the rocket ship is in store for him to climb three or four rounds in in a lot of home leagues.
I see the same way. I have ranked ahead of Jayden Reed. Like to me, if you're not in two wide receiver sets in today, like it's it's just hard to get there. And I think that Matthew Bergeron's going to open in two wide receiver sets ahead of Jayden Reed. Oh god, sorry Matt. I hate that. But yeah, whatever. That's fine. That's fine. Yeah, Hayden, since you just said that, I'm gonna allow you to close the show by uh talking down, you know, perhaps one of the best players to ever uh play the sport here. So, uh let's hear it, pal. [laughter]
Yeah, this Patrick Mahomes guy, I've had enough. Uh [laughter] this just comes down to like you don't have to draft [clears throat] the guy coming off a torn ACL. Throw into, you know, who we've been talking about with Rashee Rice and Kelce and Xavier Worthy when there's like there's like 16 quarterbacks that you can draft. Uh, all in that tier like Brock Purdy, Jackson Dart, now that Malik Neighbors seems to be on the right path. Bo Nix just added, you know, Jaylen Wright, uh, he's in that range. I think in redraft leagues, Kyler Murray is even more intriguing because if he gets benched eight weeks down the road, who cares? You just pick somebody up. You know, Matthew Stafford just won MVP. He goes after Patrick Mahomes. uh Jared Goff, Jordan Love, like there's just so many names here. I just don't think you have to take the risk with with Patrick Mahomes. And I think there'll be more balance on offense than they ever have been before because of the upgrade at running back. Uh both tackles are very boom-bust right now. And uh he's making progress, but he's definitely not going to be himself this year as a scrambler. So, I just don't see the reason to take on the risk.
Yeah. Just I say that I'm actually with Hayden here. So, Josh, go ahead. Yeah, I [clears throat] mean I I don't want to dig myself a hole and have a uh you know comment that can be clipped about being negative with Patrick Mahomes. Uh I I I do buy your point on um just the quarterback room entirely that we can draft this year. It's it's quite nice. And then your final point on the rushing. I mean in just 14 games last year, he uh set a career-high with 422 rushing yards and five rushing scores. Uh, and based on the atrophy that we saw in what that left leg, uh, just him walking into training camp, I'm not sure how much rushing this guy's going to do in critical situations. And hence why they go out and make the only big move of the offseason for their offense and was to sign Kenneth Walker III. So, uh, yeah, there's just like no chance from for a Mahomes type to get into true difference-maker fantasy scoring uh, if he's not running with the football. And I just don't think he's running with the football this year.
Yeah, I think this offense and just this team as a whole looks like much more of a rock fight team than Patrick Mahomes is slinging the football all over the place with like Zavion, unless Cyrus Allen is the greatest receiver of all time, which you know there there's a >> you've been floating this every single show we've done. We Cyrus Allen gets brought up. We might [laughter] need to do that.
It's I It's It's one of these ones where like I can't really tell what's real and what's a bit anymore, but it's not 0% a bit. Let's Let's just put it that way with Cyrus. I mean, he's the Listen, he's their best man coverage beating receiver on the team. >> It's just the reality situation. [laughter]
Oh, I've actually I've actually been saying it that I was like, if you get two beers in me, I would say that he's the best man coverage beating receiver on the on the team. And zero beers today so far. So, uh, yeah, there you go, [laughter] [gasps] boys. This was excellent. Great first show here on the forecast together. But of course, folks, make sure you're subscribing to Josh and Hayden's YouTube channel as well. It's very conveniently named Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh and Hayden, wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, all those things. You're going to be seeing a lot more of these two gentlemen on the show through the course of August and the football season. And on that note, I'm going to be back on Thursday here on this show with Justin Boon as we go over our first Yahoo Fantasy staff mock draft of the real official fantasy football drafting season. And I'm going to be able to reveal our full August calendar where again, like I said, you're going to be seeing a lot more. I mean, you you see me every day. So, if you're not sick of me already, I don't know. I don't know what I don't know what you're doing here, but you're going to be seeing a lot more of Josh and Hayden as well. Could not be more excited to have these guys on the team. could not be more excited that we are officially in fantasy football drafting season. We're going to see you guys on Thursday with Boon.