Transcription
These are the top 48 players in fantasy football this year. If you're in a 12-team league, it's the top four rounds. If you're in a 10-team league, it's almost the top five rounds, but this is how we have these guys ranked and how we think you should be selecting them in your fantasy football drafts this year.
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I'll start with the first round here. And again, these are how we have these guys ranked, but we have Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at the top of these rankings. When you're looking at our uh at our algorithm, which is again is our version of the draft guide, but it's an interactive tool that helps you draft and gives you real-time live advice based on your exact league settings in your exact platform. When you're looking over there, we do have for each player, we have the upside, floor, risk, and situational scores. There are four factors that we give and we give them again for each player that we talk about not only in today's video, but even beyond this for in our rankings. Every player has one of these for each of these four factors. I did add on this tool though uh a composite. So basically when you take the upside score, the floor score, the risk score, situational scores and again upside week to week upside ceiling upside over the course of a season, floor same thing week to week floor but also floor in terms of range of outcomes, risk, injuries, situation, rookie things like that, situational offense, coaching uh, vacated volume things like that, all of that accounts everything you want to think about. So, this is encompassing all of that.
And when you're sorting quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. So, all available fantasy players, not including defense and kicker. Uh, and you take the comp highest composite ranks. Number one, Bijan Robinson is a 9.8. That is the highest score we have. So, he's a 10 at all three of upside, floor, and situationals. Risk is a two, which is the the one is the lowest score in risk you can even get. Um, and when you're looking at Jahmyr Gibbs, he's a 9.3. He would be the second tied for second best composite score with these four factors of anybody. Again, you can view all these scores for every player over on the site with the season pass. But Jahmyr Gibbs has a nine with floor. He's a little bit of a lower floor, which we know part of that because he was splitting with David Montgomery, but his risk is only a three. And so these guys are the two top like even when you you can put this in any type of algorithm, you can put this in any type of model that you want to, these guys are the two top picks this year in fantasy football. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
And then after that you get into kind of you know the wide receivers. I got three wide receivers here. Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jackson Smith-Njigba. Ja'Marr Chase last year only playing probably about half the season with Joe Burrow. Still averaged 19.6 points per game over the course of the entire season. Uh that that's obviously great. He was the wide receiver three last year and it felt like a down year for Ja'Marr Chase having Ja'Marr Chase on my own rosters and it really wasn't. We expect him to be really good this year um and continue hopefully with a full healthy season of Joe Burrow because Ja'Marr Chase with and without Joe Burrow. The splits are very obvious, right? Everybody would know that. Anybody with eyes would know that. Puka Nacua last year averaged 23 and a half points per game. 23 and a half. And so Puka was the wide receiver one last year and this year I'm not sure where you're going to get Puka Nacua. The one thing with Puka, while he does have again a nine or higher in all three of those categories, upside, floor, and situational, his risk is a six. Part of the reason his risk is a little bit higher than the other top wide receivers is, you could have guessed, he does tend to get injured and he does leave the game quite a bit that he does tend to miss games over the course of an entire season. And you know, sometimes that breaks his momentum with with how many, you know, banger games in a row he has. >> Sometimes it breaks Nate. >> Sometimes it breaks Nate. Sometimes Nate just can't handle that. But Puka still when he's healthy, again, when he's healthy, he's averaging again 23 and a half points per game. I mean, he is blowing almost every other wide receiver out of the water when he's healthy. And so, we're not going to rank guys like they're injured. You have to take into account the risk with Puka, but we have him ranked there at number four. And number five, JSN averaged 21 points per game last year. Um, and when his three factors are are the best of any uh four factors are the best of any wide receiver that we have in our database, right? Because he's a nine at upside, his floor is a 10, his situational is a 10, his risk is a three. He's not very risky. 9.3 overall. and he grades right there with Bijan Robinson as one of the best assets in our opinion according to again the four factors in fantasy football this year. So JSN I think people might sleep on this year but I think JSN could end up being a really good pick.
Now Christian McCaffrey, you're looking at him. Obviously with Christian McCaffrey the risk is going to be a very high there. The upside's a 10. The floor is a 10. The situational is a 10. The risk is an eight. He is one of the riskiest picks in fantasy football. But like you saw last year, sometimes it doesn't even matter because you can take on it is extremely high risk of course, but it's extremely high reward. Christian McCaffrey is he's either winning you your league or he's losing your league. And there's no in between. There really isn't. And so that's you know you're you're you are playing the lottery with Christian McCaffrey. But again, when he's on the field, he's the best player and best asset in fantasy football. And it's not even debatable, I don't think. So he's right here in the middle of the first round. again not not going first because again there's some risk compared to Bijan and Gibbs and the point differential is not big enough between them to make like a big difference. Amon-Ra St. Brown again one of the safest one of the safest assets in fantasy football. Uh nine for upside, nine for floor and 10 for situational and his risk is a four. He's not risky. He's got a super high floor. He has a high ceiling and he's in a great situation. It makes perfect sense to have him here. I think he's maybe the safest pick in the first round of fantasy football drafts this year. Jonathan Taylor is going to carry a little bit of a higher risk score as well. Uh he his risk score is going to be a seven. Again, upside and floor perfectly high, but he is a little bit more of a risky pick. He does he has missed time in the past. He's risky because he got a lot of carries last year. And so that's kind of bleeding into people thinking, okay, people the the these guys that have that meet this certain threshold of carries, I think it's the 380 uh touches, I sorry, it's combined touches typically tend to fall off the next year. And while that's true, you have to admit Jonathan Taylor's still going to be the focal point of that offense. and uh it's likely he's going to score a lot of points there this year as well. Justin Jefferson had a down year last year, only averaged about 12 points per game. Still one of the best picks in fantasy football according to again our four factors and just in our opinion. Now the upside with with Justin Jefferson uh is a seven. His upside's inherently a little bit lower on a game-to-game basis because I think you see less of those explosion games from Justin Jefferson than you do from other people. But generally his floor is a nine. It's very high floor when he's healthy and his situation's very good. We have a situation at a 10. it's going to be a very good situation for Jefferson this year compared to last year where that would have been much lower. The risk is a little bit higher there and I think some of the risk with Justin Jefferson is the quarterback situation. Um, but I think most of the risk there is uh just the fact that there's a lot of unknowns after last year. We still are very confident in Justin Jefferson. So, we're going to be ranking him accordingly.
Devon Achane is next. People are going to be very out on Achane. Achane's risk is a six. Uh nines and tens across the board everywhere else. Again, Achane's risky because we don't really know, right? We we don't really know. Now, in terms of situational, I would take this with a grain of salt for Devon Achane. We don't necessarily know. The situational score is based on projections. Um, it's based on, you know, some of what we've seen in the past with Achane. But what we know is Devon Achane is one of the higher floor players in fantasy football and he's already been in one of the worst offenses and not only the worst offenses, but one of the worst situations in the league the last couple years and it hasn't really hindered his ability to produce. So, we like him a lot this year. And then two running backs to close us out here, James Cook and Austin Ekeler. Ekeler scores really well here. Ekeler's risk is very, very low. Um, part of this is because Ekeler's really never missed time in the NFL. But I also think Ekeler is generally a safe pick this year, which is why we have him ranked inside the first round. Um, we will say his floor is a little bit lower. We have his floors at seven. I think he it is possible that Ekeler has a lower game-to-game floor than some other players, but still the fourth ranked running back in terms of composite four-factor grades for us. And James Cook's number five. And James Cook, again, like people are going to continually like predict touchdown regression or whatever for James Cook, but in all honesty, I think that uh this is this is a case where you don't overthink it. You take the guy who gets that many red zone touches, that many touchdowns, that many breakaway runs in an offense that's going to score a lot of points again this year, even with a new offensive coordinator. And I think you take the running backs over the wide receivers at the end of the first year just because of positional value.
Now, we'll get into the second round. I'll let Nathan take the second round, but we did bump those running backs up. Um, and we have a couple wide receivers here and then another big long list of running backs that we like in the second. >> Yeah, top of the second with London and Lambs who we're going to start with. Both of these guys actually very comparable in terms of like what their production output is most likely going to be as long as they stay healthy this season, which is why actually both of their risk scores are going to be a bit high. Drake London's risk score is going to be eight paired with his upside and floor being really really I mean premier elite level 9 upside score. Uh, his his his floor score is a seven there. um his situation actually as questionable as it is for Atlanta as a whole and as a team, it's actually really good situation for London because he's such a reliable target where it's really easy to get the ball to him and he's just so sure-handed and and is again going to be like one of the most reliable guys there alongside Bijan. Um and CeeDee Lamb is kind of in a different type of conversation here because he's actually got some competition at the wide receiver position in the same offense um and is competing for targets there. You saw George Pickens last year while London or while Lamb went down with the injury um just went totally bananas and they actually schematically are very complimentary assets. Lamb and Pickens are but that did hurt Lamb quite a bit. I will say his upside and floor combo is not going to be hurt too much from his disappointing season last year because again he was banged up so he's going to have a higher risk score. But you you also saw that floor really come into play where his touchdowns went way down from what we're used to. And yet on a per-game basis, dude was still averaging like 17 points per game when he was healthy and on the field and he only had three touchdowns on the year. He dropped multiple touchdowns. So I'm not too stressed out about Lamb this season. We're still ranking him ahead of Pickens for a reason because schematically he does play the number one option there in that offense with Dak. And I think I do think we'll see some positive regression with the touchdown volume and and all of that. Again, over the over the long period of his career, we have seen more healthy seasons with less missed time than like a lot of seasons with a good amount of missed time. I I would be willing to attribute 2025 to like an outlier season with that injury. Um hopefully he can stay healthy this season.
Then again, starting with another run of running backs here. Um, we are going to have O'Mariyon Hampton up top here and we are going to rank him over Jeremiah Love. This is intentional um because you are looking at O'Mariyon Hampton's situation being one of the better ones in the NFL for an up-and-coming running back. Um dude is coming off of an injury obviously where he was very inefficient as a runner last season due to again him being injured, the offensive line not existing because they were all injured as well. And it was an offense that I think was just less efficient overall than what you're going to see in a Mike McDaniel called offense this season. If you remember Mike McDaniel and Miami, again, left left a bad taste in a lot of our mouths when he got fired from that situation, how ugly it got. But Miami at their best, especially early in in McDaniel's stint there as the head coach was one of the most explosive offenses, if not the best offense in the NFL with productive wide receivers, with productive running backs. Pre-Achane you have Raheem Mostert who was super productive as well. He loves giving the ball to his running backs once they get into the red zone. I think it's wheels up for Hampton this year and I think his floor is quite a bit higher than people are willing to give him credit for. Again, we'll account for the risk with the injury there which is going to bring his score down a little bit in the in the four factors and that's why he's going to be going in the second round because it is technically projection but I think it's I I think it's very conservative projection uh to to be ranking him here because we could honestly rank him higher. Jeremiah Love, a rookie, right? One of the better rookie running back prospects that we've seen in a while. Um, in the same conversation as Ekeler and Bijan Robinson. Depends on who you talk to. Um, from a prospect perspective. Do you think that Jeremiah Love is, you know, better coming into the NFL than Ekeler was? Is the situation better? Um, or is it worse? I I think that's why we're giving the upper hand to Hampton because we know what that situation is going to look like in LA more than we do in Arizona for Jeremiah Love who's going to be uh potentially competing for touches with Tyler Allgeier his rookie season if they kind of want to ease him into his bellcow workload long term. Just get ready for that. You might have a little bit of a slow start for Jeremiah Love ultimately. I do think that his floor is still going to be respectable. It's not going to be again the the floor of some of these elite proven running backs that are going in the first round, but not near as low as a guy like uh like Ekeler when we saw last year. I do think he'll be more productive there and obviously the ceiling is through the roof. It's going to be a 10. He doesn't have injury history either.
Now, let's talk about Saquon Barkley. I think a lot of people want to write Saquon Barkley off this season because he had such a disappointing year regressing from 22 points per game in 2024 to 14 points per game in 2025. I think it wasn't necessarily his fault though. Let's give them a little bit of a break and and recognize what was going on there situationally. They were super predictable um as an offense just schematically. They did change offensive coordinators. They moved on from A.J. Brown. They brought on DeVonta Smith. Hopefully DeVonta Smith can bring some more versatility to the short intermediate game there in that offense. They're asking Jalen Hurts to operate a different style of offense than he's used to. that might actually look ugly for the receiving game and it might actually result in putting a lot more work on Saquon Barkley's shoulders. If you're asking for volume and you want guaranteed volume in the second round, Saquon Barkley is your guy. I he is going to get so many touches in this offense and like they do most years are going to have to slow the game down by running the ball and running out the clock and and that just bodes so well for Saquon and his potential upside this season paired with what is a decent floor in a doomsday season for Saquon Barkley. He still again had 14 points per game with like half the amount of touchdowns that he had the prior season. His efficiency had gone way down. Their offensive line is going to be fully healthy and ready to go this season as well. I think he's going to be fine. Don't freak out too much with Saquon. He could have a bounce-back season. Chase Brown super reliable, super safe. As long as Joe Burrow is on the field, his situation is phenomenal. He's going to have a great situational grade, a great floor grade because he does offer a lot in the receiving game because he gets so many dump-offs from Joe Burrow. It's an air raid offense where they can only uh win games if they score like 35-plus points every single week. Bodes well for everybody in that offense, including Chase Brown. He's a product of that situation and you have to rank them accordingly just like we did last year in the same range and it ended up paying off after a slow start. I think he's going to be more consistent this season as long as Burrow is healthy. Derrick Henry, you you you have to stick with Derrick Henry in this range until he just decides to not produce anymore. And the reality is he hasn't decided to stop producing anymore. Even in a terrible situation last year where Lamar Jackson was banged up quite a bit. Um he was still Derrick Henry and he wasn't the Derrick Henry of 2024. I'll give you that. He finished as the running back seven. Only had 1500 yards, only had 1500 rushing yards compared to the 1900 he had the year prior. Was still well over five yards per carry. Had 16 touchdowns. and he really came on in the second half of the season as well. You got to give him a lot of credit there. Exploded in the championship week. If you went to the championship with Derrick Henry, he won you your championship. He's 32 years old going on 33. I don't care. It's Derrick Henry. He's a certified unicorn. Ride him until he dies, man. He's he's the best. He's the GOAT.
Brock Bowers, um the first elite tight end here. We got to give him his flowers here. Um he's coming off of an injury and a much better situation situation with Klint Kubiak now at the helm calling plays. Kirk Cousins most likely going to be playing quarterback there. You saw Kyle Pitts and how well he played with Cousins at the end of last season. Kirk Cousins paired with Brock Bowers, who's a much better tight end, and you saw what his upside was his rookie season. I think it's wheels up for Bowers this year. He has to stay healthy. George Pickens again playing alongside CeeDee Lamb. Maybe you're going to see some touchdown regression from him, which is what we're that's why we're going to rank him notably lower than CeeDee Lamb. But in the same round, nine touchdowns last year, more than we're used to seeing from him. Ended up as a wide receiver five in half-PPR formats. And in full PPR, he was again still a top five wide receiver. So, uh, really like George Pickens a lot here. I think two wide receivers can stay healthy or can be productive in that same offense because of the volume that Dak Prescott provides. Chris Olave, another wide receiver here in an air raid offense. Kellen Moore loves throwing the football. Um, and he's going to continue that. We're not worried about Jordan Tyson taking away from Chris Olave. I think it's just going to open things up for him. And again, Tyler Shough is going to offer enough volume. He demonstrated that towards the end of last season when he when he was the starting quarterback that he can provide enough volume for multiple wide receivers to be productive and Chris is going to be the focal point this season. Trey McBride, I mean, one of the more productive tight end seasons we've ever seen um in recent memory and now you just have the question of like who's going to be quarterback there. As long as Brissett is quarterback, I'm not worried about McBride's floor. If Carson Beck is starting at some point this season, which I'm a little bit worried about, that's when you start wondering, okay, what's this offense going to look like? How consistent is Carson Beck going to be as a passer and when is that going to happen? Is it going to be like midway through the year or like more towards the end? Either way, it's going to be a little more questionable at that point in time. That said, Trey McBride is so reliable and he is the wide receiver one in that offense. Nico Collins going to go here at the turn at the very tail end of the second round. Uh we like Nico Collins this season. His upside is great. He demonstrates it every single year. Um he is one of the riskier selections in the top two rounds of your fantasy drafts because he gets injured consistently every single year. He will miss time. You can bake that into his price. He has hamstring issues when he's on the field. He's electric and he's the only option in that offense and he reaps the benefits of it.
>> Okay, and now we get into the third round here and we start with again two running backs, Kenneth Walker and Javonte Williams. We're a bit little bit lower on Kenneth Walker than other people are. He averaged 11.3 points per game last year. I think a lot of it's just projection and I think it's projection for, you know, something that I don't think Kenneth Walker is actually going to be. But that being said, we do still have him ranked as a high-end running back two, which would be the best finish of his NFL career. We have Javonte Williams right behind him, right on his tail. Uh, and Javonte last year again, he was averaging 15.1 points per game. He's a running back 12 last year. We have him ranked as a high-end running back two. Again, because we think he's going to be do largely what he did last year, pretty much exactly the same as what we project him to do. And so, we have him there, followed by our first quarterback in Josh Allen. Uh, we're going to be more conservative with quarterbacks. I will say this year once you get to the third round like people were taking Josh Allen last year in the early third and I didn't necessarily love it. Uh this year in we have him ranked as high as we've ever had a quarterback ranked and I just think that uh this year more than any year like a quarterback actually may not be the worst pick of all time here in the early third. We're still generally going to punt quarterback. And notice that we have him ranked uh here at 27. We don't have another quarterback ranked until 53. And so Josh Allen, he is going to be here in the third round. He's the only quarterback that we're going to be ranking in this video and in the top four rounds in general this year for fantasy football.
Then you get onto Rashee Rice and Rashee again when you're looking at the four factors here obviously the thing with Rashee Rice is the risk is a 10. It is a 10. Everything else is a nine though. So it's like it is a complete boomer pick here for Rashee Rice. We have him ranked again in the third round. That's about what his ADP is right now. Like we have him ranked maybe mid-third. you know, we I think a lot of platforms are going to have him like three-four turn and and the fact of the matter is this is just one big tier of wide receivers here. Uh and and that's part of the reason why we we're being a little bit more conservative. Uh but I I do think this is an appropriate ranking for Rashee Rice because when he's on the field again, he is that guy. He is that guy. And he has been a mid-wide receiver one when he's been on the field. He was the wide receiver five on a points-per-game basis last year. Um and he averaged 18.7 points per game. Again, like when he's on the field, he's been dynamite. He's projected, even with all the off-field stuff to be on the field this year, he's just a super risky pick. Uh you get down to Breece Hall here again, stuck on the Jets, averaged 13 points per game last year. Um and I I just I worry about the situation a lot with Breece Hall. Um that being said, you know, the upside is of course an eight. The floor is a little bit lower. The risk isn't terrible, but the situation is not ideal. Again, the situation is an eight for him. Um which is is a little bit low uh compared to some of the other guys that are up here at the top. Typically these guys have nines or tens for situations uh in terms of volume, in terms of supporting cast, etc. But Breece, we're going to be a little bit conservative with and rank him here in the middle of the third.
Then A.J. Brown, some people have A.J. Brown ranked much higher than us here. I think this is an appropriate ranking for A.J. Brown. We have him ranked as a high-end wide receiver two. Last year, A.J. Brown averaged 14.7 points per game. On a points basis, this was a low-end wide receiver one. I don't think that he's going to be scoring 17-plus points per game as Drake May's wide receiver one. It's obviously a situational upgrade for A.J. Brown, but at the same time, I do think that uh it's worth being a little bit conservative here. Again, we have him as our wide receiver 12. So, we have him as a low-end wide receiver one. I just would be careful expecting A.J. Brown to be like this 17-18 points per game plus score. I think that A.J. Brown is just simply not there anymore. Um and I think it was evident on, you know, his on-field performance last year. I love Kyren Williams this year. We have ranked as the running back 16. Uh he finished as a running back 11 last year. Honestly, he could be too low here. Like we we maybe should have him ranked even higher than this. Uh and he's a guy that I think the the the four factors really like here. His upside's a nine. His floor is a 10, which makes a lot of sense. Situation's a nine. And again, the risk is not super high. I really like Kyren Williams this year. I took him too early last year, but I think uh more third, fourth round prices for Kyren Williams this year is going to be a lot more palatable for a lot of people. Garrett Wilson, again, he's on the Jets, but he still averaged 14.2 points per game last year when he was healthy. Again, the risk the risk is high and the situation's not super good, right? And so, that's going to be the main thing that's preventing people from from considering drafting or drafting Garrett Wilson this year is just the fact that he is on the New York Jets in that situation has not lent itself to fantasy productivity and is, you know, to be honest with you, the risk there is is a 10 between him missing time and the situation and the coaching staff. The risk is extremely high for Garrett Wilson. He's still a very good NFL wide receiver, though.
Ladd McConkey, kind of the the next next my guy on this list. Um I really like Ladd this year. We have the situation as a 10 for him. His upside and floor are a little bit limited which I think is kind of indicative of who Ladd is as a player but his risk is super low. Aka he's a very safe pick and I think I like Ladd McConkey in the third round this year as a safe pick especially if you go a little bit more risk-averse uh in the first couple rounds. And you've got Travis Etienne another running back here in the third round for us. Just signed to the New Orleans Saints on a fairly large deal. Um, and and he's somebody that I think is gonna have a fairly decent season like he did last year. His upsides an eight, his floor is an eight, his situation's an eight. And again, not a super risky player in my opinion. So, I like Travis Etienne this year. I also like Tyjae Spears who goes right below him. His risk uh is of course very low, but I think the ceiling is capped. That's what you see. The upside's a six. The floor is low. It's a seven. Situation's good. There's plenty of volume to go around there for Tyjae Spears, but he he's kind of a low-risk, but also low-floor, low-ceiling pick here in the third round. Um, and obviously expecting him to take a step forward. We have him ranked pretty aggressively. And then Davante Adams. Davante Adams last year uh averaged 15.9 points per game. He was the wide receiver nine and was maybe if not he actually he was the best red zone wide receiver in the NFL last year. Uh we'll see where his ADP ends up settling, but we have him ranked here in the third. And uh his ADP right now is about the end of the fourth round uh in a lot of platforms. And so that could change, but right now it looks like Davante Adams, a guy who yeah, the risk is going to be a little bit higher there. But the upside, the floor is going to be that combination is going to be better than almost every player in this range. Right now, it looks like he's going to be one of our favorite picks just because I think people are expecting a lot of regression. And while touchdown regression can happen for Davante Adams, I don't necessarily think that it's a guarantee that he regresses to the extent where he's not even relevant this year. >> He's never regressed his entire career with the touchdowns. >> Exactly. You also can just admit that he's the one of the best red zone receivers in the league and just one of the best receivers in the league, period. And that's kind of where I'm at with Davante Adams. So again, he'll round up he'll round out our third round as we get to our fourth round to finish it up here.
>> Yeah, the fourth round's full of high upside and really high-risk players. Gonna start with Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers is actually one of the higher floor guys that's going to be going in the fourth round here, which is why he's going to go closer to the 34 turn. Um I I wouldn't freak out too much about Zay Flowers' start to this season because again that was such a tumultuous tumultuous situation in Baltimore with no Lamar Jackson. For a good chunk of it, he was not healthy. We saw the best Zay Flowers with the best Lamar Jackson. And as long as Lamar Jackson is healthy and good to go in that offense, Zay Flowers is is going to pop off this year. Um I will say the the upside is going to be a little little bit lower than a number of guys in this round uh because he's not a red zone threat. Love uh red zone threats at the tight end position in Baltimore. Those are the guys that are always the go-to there. You saw Isaiah Likely and Andrews historically get a lot of those opportunities and obviously Derrick Henry getting all of those on the ground. They just love to run the ball once they get into the red zone. So Flowers is not as much of a red zone touchdown threat, but he does have a high floor because he gets a lot of receiving volume um and opportunities there while Lamar is healthy. T. Higgins wide receiver two in his own offense doesn't matter. He's super productive um alongside Joe Burrow when he's healthy. And that's the biggest question with T. Higgins. His risk score is a nine, one of the higher ones that you're going to see because you can pretty much bake it into Higgins' price every single year that he's going to miss time. Can you handle drafting T. Higgins in the fourth round and expect him to miss three or four weeks every single season and are you okay with that on your roster? Can your roster handle it? Can you stack up enough wins to deal with it when it inevitably comes?
Next up we're going to have here is DeVonta Smith. Um DeVonta Smith no longer has A.J. Brown. The boogeyman is gone. Uh I don't really know what that means necessarily for DeVonta Smith in his production in a low passing volume offense. Honestly, uh, DeVonta Smith might just do DeVonta Smith things, which can be very, very good at times, but I think his ceiling is a little bit lower than people are actually expecting this season. Uh, his situation is going to be good for him because he's the top option there alongside DeVonta Smith, who might actually take a decent amount of volume. But realistically, like his his upside score being a seven and his floor score being a six, um, you don't see a massive gap there. you kind of just know exactly what DeVonta Smith is going to do and he does stay consistently healthy for the most part. So, he's a safe pick. I don't think he's a league-winning pick at price. Then we've got Adonai Mitchell here and Adonai Mitchell could be a league winner at price. You saw really really amazing highs from him in Tampa last season um at the beginning of the year. Then he suffered a hamstring injury and he was never really the same after that. Not to mention Baker Mayfield was not the same after he started struggling with injuries as well. Mike Evans is now gone, which is a significant amount of target volume, even though he did miss a good chunk of last season. Chris Godwin is there. Jahan Dotson is there still. I think Mitchell has a chance to be the top option there. You just have to face the fact that like Godwin, when it's all said and done, could end up being the lead target option there if he stays healthy all season. Adonai Mitchell's floor ceiling combo is going to be like a six versus a nine. Nice. Um, he did play like pretty much all of last season, so his risk score isn't going to be super low, but again, we do need to see him fully healthy and a full go in every single game this season.
Then we got Cole Kmet. Cole Kmet, very, very exciting this year. I think Avery and I both believe that he has a solid chance, we're ranking accordingly, that he's going to be the actual wide receiver one there and be the lead target option in a Ben Johnson offense along Caleb Williams. When you saw what he did uh towards the end of last season as his volume went up, I mean, it was it was elite tight end caliber. Um, you had games of 25, 21 points, uh, 12, 10, 14, 29 points. It wasn't consistent, but he can get consistent this season heading into his second year. We've seen the development trajectory for tight ends in the past. He is in elite company, like legitimately. So, this could be a really, really good tight end selection if you're not taking a shot on Bowers or McBride in the early rounds. Um, and then looking at our next guy here, we are going to have Cam Akers. If if you look at what Cam Akers did before he went down with the injury last season, he's the unquestioned running back one and an offense that loved to run the ball. They're going to love to run the ball even more this season. 12, 21, 12, 30, 16 points and another like 10 points with a touchdown with the 21% snap share that he had in week eight before he went down with that injury. He's a full go heading into training camp. They did not replace him with Jeremiah Love this season. He is the full-fledged full-go bellcow running back in that offense. Nobody else is getting relevant touches in that offense. It's Cam Akers all the way. Greg Roman and Matt Nagy are going to cook with this guy on the ground. They're going to run the ball like crazy this year. It's wheels up for Akers. He is a really, really awesome high upside selection this season. And then we've got Josh Jacobs back to back with him. Jacobs would be ranked higher um if he didn't have some of the legal issues and the questions coming off of a really disappointing end to last season where he started suffering from injuries. Um that's the concern that we have with Jacobs. Honestly, he's going to play all season. Don't be too worried about the legal stuff. Usually suspensions happen on a year's delay if they come at all um in that type of situation. But Jacobs is the only guy there. Anyone that was going to be like a really concerning um volume guy that could take away carries from him was Emanuel Wilson and he's now in Seattle. So Jacobs is the guy and they're going to continue to give him all the opportunities and all the red zone carries until he can't take it anymore. Um his his risk is just inherently going to be higher because he's older and he has had some injury issues in the past. Uh Malik Nabers, finally we've gotten Malik Nabers. I know some of you guys are probably screaming at us at this point, guys. Malik Nabers will probably miss the first quarter of the season. There is a chance he misses half of the season. And obviously once he plays and once he's a full go, the upside is is literally like as high as some of the guys that are going in the first round. um like Malik Nabers may never be full go this season and that has to be baked into his price. We're trying to pair the upside with the risk and it is so so high in both of those categories. You got an eight upside score for him and a nine risk coming off of the ACL. The rehab has not gone well for him. He's probably going to miss the start of the season in a good bit good bit amount of time. And he won't be full go when he comes back. He's going to have to ramp up.
David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift and J.D. McKissic are going to be the last three running backs here back to back to back. Montgomery, great situation in Houston. Um, they needed a running back last season. They went and got the running back in Montgomery. Dameon Pierce can't stay healthy enough to really take away a ton from Monty. Monty's been productive with like 30 to 40% snap share alongside Jahmyr Gibbs. If he gets 60% snap share in that offense, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with and a really, really great second running back option if you draft him here in the fourth round. D'Andre Swift, you know exactly what you're getting from him, man. Every single year he's a running back two with really, really high upside because his receiving capability is phenomenal. Um, so his floor is actually honestly kind of underrated when you look at it and when you look at his game log. Like especially in a Ben Johnson type situation where he's calling the plays here, they do like to run the ball quite a bit. Swift is going to be the focal point as long as he is the guy there um at the running back position, as long as he can stay healthy. He is a riskier running back to invest in because he does miss time and has missed time historically. J.D. McKissic a rookie. He is a first-round rookie. He is replacing Kenneth Walker. He will not be splitting time right down the middle with Zach Charbonnet this season because Charbonnet is going to miss a majority of the season after he had ACL surgery in February. He's still uh working on his rehab. It's going to take some time for him as well. you're really looking at like a competition between McKissic and Emanuel Wilson and like George Holani and those guys. I mean, every single one of those guys is cuttable except for McKissic who was the first-round selection this season. Like I McKissic is probably going to start the year slow just because they're going to want to like work up his his opportunities and his workload as he kind of shows what he's able to do at the NFL level. He didn't get a ton of reps in college um playing behind Jeremiah Love, but I mean, first-round draft capital, a ton of investment there. They're going to want to get in the ball sooner rather than later, and they're going to want to do it consistently because he's the most explosive upside uh running back that they have in that room by far this season. And then the last guy here is going to be Terry McLaurin. Still the unquestioned wide receiver one in that offense. They didn't do anything to replace um or upgrade from Terry McLaurin this season in the draft. It's still Terry. Daniels is now fully healthy. Terry is going to be healthy as well. So, I I mean, we're just hoping we can see a 2024 repeat season and not what we saw in 2025.
>> So, there you go. Subject to change. That's our top 48 to start 2026. Drop a like on the video if you enjoyed. Make sure you subscribe if you play fantasy football. If you want access to all the four-factor data, personalized advice for your draft, your league, your league settings, your platform, everything with the algorithm tool, we just dropped it. We've got it available with the season pass with code DOMAIN. Links in the comments. It's $34 for the entire year, all year round. Everything that we offer for redraft leagues are in our our best tool we've ever created. It's $30. So, you can get that at the link below. We love you, guys. We appreciate you. We'll see you here soon with another vid.