Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review of BTC first. Are we putting in a bottom, or on the contrary, do we have chances of a continuation? I will also share a trade I took on the short term. We will of course talk about Ethereum and three cryptos that were requested for analysis. I noted, Pit Network and Centrifuge. So, before I start, I would like you to answer these questions. Are you truly satisfied with your current portfolio? Have you managed to take profits intelligently in recent months? Did you enter at the right time? on the right cryptos, the right projects. Do you really know what you are doing, or are you still following calls, signals on Twitter, YouTube, Telegram, or elsewhere? Do you have a clear strategy for what you will do if the market explodes tomorrow, or on the contrary, would you know exactly what to do if we experience a new crash - 50-70% like in 2022? Are you sure your cryptos are currently well secured, even if your phone, your computer breaks, you lose your Ledger key, or whatever? And do you have a portfolio designed for your profile, adapted to your profile, your investment horizon, and your capital? If you answered no to the majority of these questions, it means you are missing something. But the good news is that it can be learned. And that's exactly why I created the Cryptoinvestor program, so that you have clear answers, a structured method, and a real strategy. Inside, you will learn to create a solid portfolio, analyze projects in depth, master your buying and selling timing, manage your emotions and your risk, be ready for all market scenarios, and in the end, you will be able to answer yes to all these questions and, above all, you will know why you are doing what you are doing. That is really important, to know what you are doing. Many navigate this ecosystem without concretely knowing what they are doing. Right now, you also have an offer until Sunday evening. So you only have 4 days left. It's time to take action. You can benefit from €200 offered. I invite you to click on the first link to activate your offer and then simply see what you will find inside the program. But in any case, what is certain is that you will be able to clearly answer the questions we just discussed. Yes. And know the most important thing. The most important thing is what I said earlier, what you are doing and how to do it, how to go about it, and especially why you are doing what you are doing. So, I invite you to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We retraced, we came back to test the 1-hour tunnel here. Okay, it's a classic, I even shared it on Discord earlier. There, we see the evolution of a rather interesting price action in an uptrend. A 3-minute tunnel, the blue tunnel acting as support, we break it. Then it's the 15-minute tunnel, we break it, and then it's the 1-hour tunnel. So, we're going back to test this good location zone. This is what we identified yesterday together, broadly speaking, this zone of $1200. We're trying to put in a bottom. In any case, the market seems to have put one in by structuring a W pattern here. Okay. With a signal when we broke the neckline, a pullback at this level, and for now, we're holding this neckline. So, I positioned myself, I took a long, I have a partial TP that is in progress, I still have a small exposure. I took a long at the moment of breaking the 3-minute tunnel at this level where I positioned myself quite aggressively, assuming that the bottom was in here and that we were simply making the second low of this large W. So my goal was to position myself at the moment of breaking the 3-minute tunnel to have the 15-minute tunnel as the target and an invalidation if we lost this low below the impulsive candle. So I had a partial TP in the 15-minute tunnel which arrived quite quickly. Okay. And broadly, I still have exposure, I closed 50%. We pulled back here and when we rejected, that's when I moved to break even. So they almost stopped me out. What is break even? It's when you take your stop loss and move it to your entry price so you risk nothing more. So I already have a partial TP on this position. My stop loss is at break even. So already, I can finish in profit, and I still have 50% of my position that is ongoing where I have higher targets, notably to go back and test globally $124,000. After that, I'll see how the market evolves. If we stop below, I have a weakening signal, I could exit lower, but globally, I have a full TP. So there you go, we'll see. It's a rather classic trade in the sense that we're going back to test the 1-hour tunnel, I see that I have a buying reaction at this level on the low timeframe, and simply that we are in a range that breaks upwards. That's why I moved to break even quickly and took a partial TP because we still have a 15-minute tunnel that is bearish. Okay? It's not like doing trend continuation like this where we can afford to go for higher movements because we have stronger momentum. But in any case, the trade is taken. The risk is managed. That's an important point. Often in trading, they will show you the gains. Many YouTubers like this show you the gains. I show you the gains. I also show you the losses. After that, we will have a position on ENA. I haven't closed it yet but it's not great. That's how it is. Sometimes we make gains, sometimes we make losses. What matters is being consistent. Okay? The most important thing is to have capital growth like this in the long term. Of course, there will be difficult phases where we will, well, maybe not like this if you have a drawdown strategy, but the goal is broadly when your capital evolves, okay, the highs, the goal is not to re-enter them. Okay, that's having a good drawdown strategy to limit losses. We don't want, that's very important, but between capital growth that does this and capital growth that does this and arrives at the same point, meaning both are at the same point, let's say +20-30% at the end of the year, I clearly prefer this one because there is good risk management. There is drawdown management compared to someone who takes big drawdowns, maybe -10% here, +30% at this level, -15%. No, it's not professional, and you should aim for a curve that looks like this. But this means accepting that you can take losses, and I accept that, and that's why I always have an invalidation zone. My goal is not to hold a short-term position, and I especially have good risk management. So in any case, on BTC, we are going back to test the 1-hour tunnel as I said. What we are doing is rather interesting. Okay. We could potentially enter a sideways phase here, it's possible. After all, there was a selling reaction, I expect that maybe the market can surprise me and go all the way to the moon. I'll be the first to say, the more BTC consolidates, the more it continues to rise, the more we profit, especially in this trend continuation, and the more the spot market also benefits. So if it goes to the moon like that, great. Now, I think there's a higher chance of perhaps entering a small sideways phase to regain some bullish momentum here on the MACD, broadly speaking, to have a small W, okay, something like this, to then break this range upwards. So, that's a scenario that is possible. It's something I will be watching. In any case, we saw it yesterday when I made the video, we lost the 15-minute tunnel, if I remember correctly. We were around here, where I told you we could quickly go to the 1-hour tunnel, sweep the lows that hadn't been swept for a while. There, we had quite a few stops to sweep at this level. Then we saw that there was simply a drop in the open interest. It was simply profit-taking by longs closing their positions, and especially from an order flow perspective, a lot of sell orders were added, and we can see that we started to consolidate. We have buy orders added just below. So we'll see if these orders are executed. Uh, visibly, some have been executed, partially, not all, but a part has been executed. Okay, it's not necessarily because we have orders like that that we will go for them. It can be spoofing, manipulation. So, orders are placed and then withdrawn shortly after. Technically, it's illegal. Now, some people do it, and well, I don't know. Anyway, it passes, it passes. You have to prove that someone did that. Anyway, logically it's legal because it's manipulation in the sense that a large player can manipulate the price like that by discouraging buyers or sellers by placing large buy or sell orders, and broadly, that's spoofing, so it's literally forbidden. Now, it's done a lot in crypto, it's done very easily. So yes, there are buy orders placed just below on Coinbase, here, we have sell orders at $124,000 at this level. So that's why I have a TP somewhat in this zone, and then we'll see how the market reacts if we get there. But in any case, the demand that arrived just below is rather interesting. We have and we are putting in a bottom just above. So in any case, we are not in a zone where I will be looking for shorts from my side. Uh, at the 1-hour tunnel level, it remains complicated because we are at a support level with a weekly pivot point just below at this level, $123,000. So, what do I think about BTC concretely? I have pretty much the same opinion as yesterday, it's just that as I said, we are still in an uptrend and in a dynamic where I will rather look for longs. A bearish engulfing like this is not what marks a long-term top. It can mark a medium-term top, and it can be the beginning of a long-term top. That's entirely possible, but for me, it's much too early here to really talk about a reversal. If we lose the 1-hour and 4-hour, maybe. If we start to re-enter $117,000, okay, but here we could just be on a retracement or, as I said, entering a sideways phase. There, we had a strong engulfing. We bounced on the 1-hour, we had three days of rise to then break the top. Well, after that, we entered a range and continued. Okay. I don't know if we will do the same thing broadly. Possible, okay? But in any case, for now, we have moving averages that are bullish in the short to medium term. So apart from the 15-minute tunnel, it would be good to break through this level again upwards at this level. Okay, it would be a pretty good signal to get back above $123,000. So, the objective is clearly $124,000, to fill this entire imbalance zone here, and we will be broadly around 0.118 of the Fibonacci. So that's why there's a big cluster of interesting levels around $124,000, but step by step. However, yes, if we start to lose this level, to turn the 1-hour tunnel into resistance, then the objective is the 4-hour tunnel. But as I said, we'll have time to talk about it again by then. Uh, but in the same way that I talked about it yesterday, ask yourself the questions. Are you too exposed? Or on the contrary, is your exposure good? If you are 100% crypto, 0% cash, it's complicated at such high levels to be so exposed. Okay? I have significantly reduced my crypto exposure. Well, not completely, but I have strongly reduced it. That's the word I wanted to use. Currently, I'm at 50/50. Okay. Yes, I have a lot of cash. That's a fact. If there's a drop, a good drop, I can clearly take advantage of it, but I still have cryptos at 50% of my exposure. Why? Because I estimate that we can go higher. That's a fact. We are in a very delicate zone, close to an ATH, these are always delicate zones. Unless we have real acceptance here where I could slightly re-enter higher and increase my exposure. But currently, I prefer to preserve part of my capital in case of a dump. I prefer to operate like this than to be at 100%, as I said, 100% crypto, 100% cash, or vice versa, 0-100, and automatically get trapped if we go up or down. Always, as I said, be flexible and have different scenarios in mind like this and be able to adapt. When you have cash, you are always comfortable. I talked about it a lot in recent months. Okay, they told me, "Yes Nico, since I put cash aside, I feel much more comfortable." Do it, you'll see, it changes a lot. Well, that's it for this update on BTC. I'll give you the update on my ENA trade. As I said, I haven't set a SL yet because, as I told you for medium-term trades like this, I have stop losses set to close. Okay? When I position myself like this for swing or even longer term, we are in between, it's swing or even medium to long term. It's a position I plan to keep for a few more weeks. I have an invalidation on close. This allows me to avoid being stopped out on wicks like this. Okay? And since these are positions, I often take them in spot or with very low leverage. Why? Because since I have a significant gap between my entry price and my stop loss, 12%, I don't need to have a large position size. I remind you that you don't calculate position size with leverage, okay? You calculate your position size and then you decide whether or not to buy with leverage. Many make the mistake of saying, "Ah, leverage is mandatory, it allows me to earn more." Yes, but it also allows you to lose more. So, I'm showing you a trade that is currently losing. I'm always transparent with you. As I said, I showed you a gain before. Well, now I'm showing you a loss, and I will always be transparent with you because for me, that's the most important thing. Okay? And it would be lying to you to say, "I never take losses." Well, no, I do. Will I take a loss here? Well, we'll see. Okay, for now, as I said, if we start closing daily below this level, I will exit because we would lose the daily tunnel. We would have a breakout of the range downwards. We would have, yes, it would be a signal that wouldn't be great. So for me, I'm keeping this position and we'll see what happens on that front. Okay, on this trade here, regarding Ethereum. Ether, same thing, we came back to test the 1-hour tunnel, we came back to test the liquidity we identified together here below this low at $4475. We're going for it. A buying reaction that is quite present with this rather low wick. And ideally, it would be good to form this W structure. We see that BTC is a bit ahead. Why? Because it's about to go above the 15-minute tunnel, which Ether has only touched very little for now. It made a high wick in it here, but for now, it's a sideways phase, and Ether is a bit weaker for now, but it has still performed very well, and we're letting the ETH BTC pair breathe. We talked about this, we saw it together when we pumped hard, and we can go back to test the daily tunnel, why not, to put in a bottom and have a continuation. It's normal after such a big pump to experience a small correction phase. So Ether is ranging in this range. For me, the most important thing on Ether is the $3900 level. Okay, that's the major polarity, and if we lose that in the long term, well, it wouldn't be great. Now, when I look at the medium term, well, we draw our levels. Our levels are quite simple to draw. It's the $4250 level, the $4500 level, the $4800 level. And then, when we are above, it's a level that acts as support. At this level, it's a level that acts as support, acts as resistance. And we adjust our exposure levels, we take our profits, and we enter positions based on these levels. Of course, not only that, trading isn't just drawing a support level, buying when we're in it, and selling when we reach a resistance level. There's a whole question of risk management, a whole question of buy signals, a question of trade management, psychology, and so on. But, yes, currently, we are in a good zone to look for longs on Ether, because as I said, we made a significant low wick. We swept quite a bit of liquidity here, and looking for longs at this level. In addition, there's a weekly pivot point slightly below. We are in the 1-hour tunnel, we can clearly be in a very good configuration to look for longs with an invalidation if we lose this level, if we have a close below this level, because we will have a high chance of retracing and coming back to broadly test $4006-$4007, or even having exposure in case we go back much higher. But this is a very good location zone in my opinion. Here we are on Ethereum. So there are several ways to position yourself. Either you are aggressive and position yourself here. So you can adjust your risk accordingly. The advantage is that you have a better risk-reward. Someone who positions themselves here with a stop loss below this level and broadly to aim for, for example, here, we have a 3-to-1 ratio compared to someone who will wait for the formation of a W structure. Here, there's a higher chance that their trade will materialize because we simply have a reversal pattern which is a strong signal. However, they have a lower risk. After that, it's up to each individual based on their psychology. The difference is that the person with a 3-to-1 risk-reward, having a 3-to-1 risk means risking one to gain three. It means that if I risk $200, that's my risk. Okay, it's to gain 3 times that amount, so broadly $600. Okay, you see the importance of having a good risk-reward. It means that if I take one loss, two losses in a row, even three, a gain can compensate for everything compared to someone who has a 1-to-1 ratio, for example. Well, if they take a loss, they take a gain, it doesn't compensate. And that's where, generally, a person with a 3-to-1 risk-reward will have a lower success rate. It's normal, they will take many more losses. It's up to you to decide. Some don't have the profile, the psychology to take more losses than gains. That depends on you. I can't tell you, "Yes, take this strategy with a 3-to-1 risk-reward, it will work." It depends on you. There are psychologies, profiles that are more adaptable, and others a bit less. So, as I say, this is work on yourself that you need to do. You will get to know yourself much better by trading. So, on that front, regarding Ethereum.
Now, regarding the altcoins requested for analysis, what did I say? I said Celo. Where are we with Celo? It's very ugly. Celo, there's nothing to do. These are the altcoins I've been telling you about for a while. These are cryptos, there's nothing to do. You see, you put a daily tunnel. What do we see? We are still trading above the daily tunnel. It's true that we have a rather good signal with this weekly impulse. Okay. +60%. We validate a sort of W structure. We go above the daily tunnel. There's a small interesting signal, you can take a long at this level, invalidation if we close weekly below the impulsive candle. So broadly, if we do that with a weekly close, we exit because it would be a reversal, it would be clearly ugly. We could be in this kind of configuration. See here, hop, daily tunnel breaks with this daily impulse. And here, what I'm telling you is that the reversal, an entry at this level with an invalidation either aggressively below the weekly candle, or below the low at this level. But when we have strong candles like this, we can often put in a bottom and in this kind of configuration, stop loss below the low as I said. Hop, if I go for it, it's on the other side of the world. And broadly, we're looking for a 2-to-1, 3-to-1 risk. After that, we can keep exposure in case we go higher, but you see, we shouldn't aim for retracements of 0.18 to 0.5 on cryptos like this that make lower highs, at 2.5 points. We're already at a x2 here in terms of performance, which remains correct. But these are cryptos I can't hold long-term because, first of all, you have to consider Celo against the dollar. Which shows us that if I take Celo, if I do crypto vs USD divided by crypto vs BTC USD, I simply have Celo selling off against Bitcoin. This shows us who is outperforming whom. And we see that since 2021, it's ugly. The person holding Celo is underperforming BTC by 98%. It's a shame, knowing that when you invest in an altcoin, it's to get better performance than BTC, otherwise there's no point. Okay? Unless you are into NFTs, DeFi, Airdrops, and so on, otherwise it's pointless. Your goal is to get better performance than BTC. And here, we see that's not the case at all. So, taking trades, why not on this kind of crypto? Absolutely not. Next, Pit Network. Hop, we corrected quite a bit on Pit. Same thing, it's a crypto that took a hit for the simple reason that it has a lot of tokens to unlock. If I go here on CoinBroker and put pit, if it finds it, it won't find it. I'll refresh, it might have trouble. No, it doesn't find it. Well, let's go to CoinMarketCap. As I showed, we did a tokenomics analysis of certain projects recently. When we have a lot of supply to release, you see here, we've only released half the supply. Except that this supply has been released recently. I don't know if I have a token unlock section here. Perfect. See, hop, we have token unlocks with significant milestones. It's not nothing. We have large tokens. See, here, we are currently at 57.5% unlocked. We're going to 78%. So here, we have increases of 20% unlocked, and this can clearly impact the project because, as I remind you, these are private investors, the team, the foundation who have these tokens that are locked. When they unlock them, it automatically creates selling pressure because these are potentially people who are at a x15, x20, x30 performance, and well, it's not great for the price. If I look here at the market cap of Pit, does it let me? No, let's go to another site, it's okay. Hop, so Pit Network. Does it find it? It seems like the ticker, I'm writing it wrong, it's not possible. PTH Network, it doesn't find it. I don't know why it finds Python. I don't know, I don't understand. Or maybe I wrote it down wrong. It's Py Th. Well, I don't understand. Well, maybe a temporary bug. I wanted to show you the evolution of the, I might be able to see this one. Tac tac tac. See, if we compare the difference between the price and the market cap, at the price level, we have an ATH at $1. We are at about 15 cents. So broadly, we are, let's say, a x8 from the ATH, roughly, if we want to be precise. Let's measure it like this. We are a x7 from the ATH. When I look at the market cap evolution here, we are at 907 million. The ATH is at 1.8 billion. This is where we see that we are a x2 from the ATH. And this is where there's a difference between the price evolution and the market cap evolution because a lot of supply has been released. These are projects that generally take, well, they take a bigger hit. We have drops like this. Now, from a price action perspective, where are we? Ah, it's rather good. We have a small recovery underway. I've already removed the moving averages, just from a price action perspective. What I like is that we came to make a lower low, but we didn't break through. This simply shows us a weakening of sellers. And I'm putting on a MACD. There's a small bullish divergence here. If I switch to 3 days, we see it a bit better. It's at this level. So weakening on the seller side. We then have our small W structure drawn here. Okay, we break, we pull back to the neckline, and for now, this neckline is holding. So, we are in the daily tunnel, it would be good to have a break and confirmation above, but here we could validate an inverse head and shoulders at this level. And that would form a large bottom where we would have a very high probability of returning, first to test this resistance zone. Then, if we re-enter it, we have this intermediate resistance zone. After that, we have this level, and then we have not much left. After that, we can clearly go. We have a last zone broadly at this level, and then it's the ATH. So, we could be on a large bottom for Pit, it could be interesting. Always watch, as I said, these token unlock phases. Okay, it can be quite violent for the price. It's worth noting that the market anticipates it, it prices it in advance. So, this is something you need to take into account. But, yes, broadly, we will have to watch the different closes we will see in the coming times. But even here, the closes we've had are rather good from a price action perspective. However, again, it's not a crypto I would hold long-term, even if we are in a narrative that can clearly perform. And yes, for an invalidation as well, two types of invalidation. The safest is below the structure, below the low. The more aggressive is if we re-enter our necklines. And last crypto, Centrifuge. I did an analysis not long ago. Let's see where we are. I think we haven't moved much. Yes, it's, well, forget these wicks, these two big wicks. Centrifuge, same thing, I talked about it not long ago. How the chart was interesting. Why? Because we came back to test these lows. We didn't break, we re-entered, we validated a W structure at this level. And here, we broke, pulled back. We see that the neckline is pulling back to this resistance zone which now acts as support, and we seem to have put in a bottom. Same thing, when I put the daily tunnel, we see a rather classic pattern here that I've always liked on cryptos when they do this. It's a daily tunnel acting as resistance. The neckline is within the daily tunnel. We break the daily tunnel and this neckline, and we pull it back. We pull it back here once and here a second time. And often, this gives quite interesting setups. And same thing, hop, if we enter at this level, invalidation below the structure, and the target, we can target high levels like this when we have this kind of entry. $0.50, $0.382. We are already here at a x2 between the neckline and this first target, then $0.18, but yes, the $0.50 are interesting. Given the price action, the psychological figure $0.382. We have a strong confluence of levels that leads us to believe it's a good zone to take profits. So, I've said what I wanted to say from my side. Don't hesitate to join the Cryptoinvestor program by taking advantage of the offer. I remind you, you have 4 days left. I invite you to click on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.