Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Thursday, October 23, 2025, with a map in the red, and yes, it's complicated once again, but we haven't gone looking for liquidity in the south. We'll look at that in this daily update. We'll also see what I think the price can do. We're going back a little to yesterday's daily update. You'll see, there aren't many changes. The daily update will be relatively quick because, in addition, there is very little news.
Let's move on and we see that for the moment, we're having a week, look, that isn't very, very good. We'll see that right away on the charts. Look. So, I'm in daily. And why? Because I wanted to compare yesterday's Nasdaq drop. Look here, the Nasdaq yesterday made a candle that was quite red. We had a rather significant drop on the Nasdaq, more than 2%. And we see that BTC held up rather well, it held up its support and this RLZ in the levels of 107,000 quite well here. So you see, we just made this little candle. Whereas on the Nasdaq, we made a candle that is similar, but when we drop like that on the Nasdaq, generally BTC takes a much bigger hit. So we see that we had some resilience and that the zone is really defended.
If I switch to 1-hour, look here, here we really defended the zone here. Yes, we went a little lower each time. We went to look for a bit more liquidity, but we still held up really well. Now, be careful, that doesn't mean we can't go lower. You see here, I put a line. This line here, this purple line, what does it represent? Well, it simply represents, look, I told you that in daily, candles like that were revisited at least 50%. Well, the previous ones were revisited very largely, but this one, look, it hasn't been revisited yet, and so, well, I took 50%, so we could potentially come back and lean on that level if, of course, there was a dump. So that's why I put that as a reference. There are two things, there is both the big trend line which is here in white and also, well, this wick that we could revisit at least to 50%. Where would we arrive? We would arrive at the level of 105,000 dollars. And 105,000 dollars, where does that take us? Well, it takes us, look here, if we go to look for the liquidity pockets, well, it takes us to look for all this liquidity pocket here. Hop, I'll zoom in a bit. So it's really the most important pocket here at this level. So yes, there would still be liquidity below, but at least, we would have recovered the most important pocket, exactly like what we did here in the north. You see, we captured the most important pocket. Knowing that there is still liquidity in the north, well, why not do exactly the same thing here.
Now, we have news like Standard Char predicting that Bitcoin will go below 100,000 dollars this weekend, but that it could be brief. So, in short, what is it? It's a wick, a flash crash. And so, below 100,000, that would still be a significant wick, but it's something that is possible. Yes, it's not something I want to see, mind you, but something that is indeed possible. Moreover, if we really look at all the liquidity pockets, well, we see that we have liquidity pockets up to 100,000. All of that, we could come and recover. However, if we come to recover all of that and we start to quickly swallow the wick, that would still be ultra, ultra bullish to take off again because then, we will have truly cleaned the market. We will have used the support of 100,000 here. we will have captured all the liquidity that is below these previous wicks here. So it would still be ultra bullish, but it would require something a bit like this. That is to say, we come, we crash, and we are immediately swallowed back up. So, a real flash wick and we are immediately swallowed back up and we go back above this trend line, that would indeed be positive. That is to say, after that, we would only have to go look for liquidity in the north.
Well, again, it's not done. I think we have a first objective that could come at least, as I told you, at the level of 105,000. That's where there is a lot, a lot of liquidity. It will also depend on geopolitics, as usual, and also on the indices, like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. If the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to fall, indeed, we could see BTC go lower. But on the other hand, if the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 go to make new highs, well, I think BTC will at least stay here or indeed go to make new highs as well.
Well, in the meantime, we can't do anything at all. What is really annoying and really damaging is here, it's the economic calendar. It's that we don't have the figures because of the shutdown. I truly hope that this will stop quickly because it is extremely problematic. Moreover, I remind you that we are all waiting for Jerome Powell's statements on the 29th, to know if we are lowering rates, to know if the economy is doing well, if unemployment is maintained, to have the PMI figures. In short, you've understood, all the important data that we should normally have, and especially, will Jerome Powell lower rates by 0.25 or 0.50? And yes, because there is a possibility if he feels the need. And moreover, I cannot tell you because we have no figures to base ourselves on at the moment to know if there is a high probability that it will be 0.25 or 0.50. I am still betting on a minimum of 0.25. In any case, for me, I believe there will be a reduction, and I've already explained it to you, because liquidity needs to be provided to banks and a soft landing needs to be achieved, not a hard landing. That will be very important. And so, if we want to achieve a soft landing, we will have to at least continue to lower rates so that banks can borrow more cheaply.
Regarding liquidations, in the last 24 hours, we liquidated 368 million in longs and only 128 million in shorts. So almost another 500 million. So we see that we are liquidating a lot, a lot currently. And unfortunately, it is predominantly longs that are being liquidated. We are still currently in fear. Look here, we are at 28. Yesterday, we were at 29, so well, we haven't moved much, but we are clearly always in fear.
Regarding ETFs, we have seen outflows again. Look, 101 million on the BTC ETF and for Ethereum, a small outflow. Look, 18.9 million. Well, it's relatively small, but I would have liked us to have seen inflows again. Yesterday, I showed you that we had inflows for both BTC and Ethereum. I would have liked us to continue in that direction. That would have been rather positive for a potential bullish recovery.
Regarding the news, there is simply President Trump. Again, I told you, bad news, good news, bad news, good news. So every day, he gives us either bad news or good news. It changes every day. Today, it's good news. President Trump declares that he will conclude an agreement with China on all points. Well, after that, it's him who says it. Now, there needs to be an agreement with China. And in the meantime, well, we don't know. A day or two ago, he was telling us that, in the end, there were strong probabilities that they would not meet, and now he is telling us that there will be an agreement on all points with China. In short, we don't know what to make of it.
Well, that's it, team. I know it's extremely difficult to hold on. I remind you again that this is what the market wants. It's not there to give you gifts, it's there to make it psychologically tough. Moreover, with the KDA token stopping the protocol, that's another blow to the head. Personally, I was exposed to KDA, so I sold at a loss of 90%. So yes, of course, it's extremely difficult, it's extremely scary again, but when I look at the data, well, the data tells me that we haven't finished the cycle and that there will be an expansion very soon. So, of course, will it be tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, in a week, in two weeks? Again, the exact timing is very difficult, we can't know, but the essential thing is to have the conviction that it will rebound. And for the moment, well, I have that conviction, I think it will rebound. I know I keep telling you, but because I truly have this conviction, if I didn't, I wouldn't tell you. And I think that in November, December, and possibly January, we will have mega big rallies. In any case, again, I believe in it.
With that, team, I'll leave you with this. Stay strong, and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily update, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!