Transcription
What happened in the US for two days? When we were closing on Wednesday at 3:30 PM, US futures were up by 1/4 to half. The actual trade of Wednesday's session is on your screens. It was largely consolidation on a very flat note. Even if you opened the intraday charts, consolidation would have been visible. I think it was an anticipation before all the important economic data on Thursday. And after that, what happened on Thursday? The movement of US markets will appear on your screens. Yesterday, strength from flat to 1% was seen. Not one, yes, an increase of around 1% was seen in all three benchmarks. And this morning's futures are a bit subdued. What eventually happened? Please bring up the first plate. Most importantly, where did US futures leave off on Wednesday? Where are we standing this morning, and all the noise and clutter in between will be gone. We have handed over roughly where we left off. The US markets haven't gone anywhere much. Yes. Where did it go? What about crude oil? Please place the second plate. Crude oil, we left at 96.3. Amidst all the developments, crude oil prices are around $93. So, if you want to digest a cool-off of about $3, you can. There are no other significant developments beyond this. Yes, after the US economic data, gold did rise in international markets. We left it at 4490, it was around 45. Today it is around 45 units. So this has also cooled down again. So, nothing much has changed. In terms of asset classes, barring the slight movement in crude oil prices. So, sir, as it appears, no significant developments have occurred. There was more noise, or something else happened. Good morning. Good morning, Ashish. First of all, many, many congratulations on your birthday. We wish you to remain forever 18. Don't ask a sadhu's age. [Laughter] Don't ask Verma's age. But we are giving you birthday wishes on a public forum also because a party is also necessary. Today is Friday, and if you talk about salary, then a party is due, but that will come on the weekend, so it will be definite, just as it came. If we talk about news, there is more noise and less news, and the back and forth continues because no concrete issue has emerged yet. The US is saying one thing, Iran is saying another. Escalations increased slightly yesterday because, according to Fars News Agency, Iran's army fired missiles at unidentified targets, and according to Tasnim, they fired in response because America first attacked Bandar Abbas, and in response to that, these missiles were fired. And according to the same Tasnim News Agency, Iran's IRGC has warned that if such an escalation happens again, more stringent steps will be taken, and a strong response will be given. But officially, the US Central Command wrote in its post that Iran had fired a ballistic missile towards Kuwait, which the Kuwaiti army also confirmed on its X account. It was neutralized first, and then the Central Command wrote that first they had launched five one-way attack drones in the Strait of Hormuz, and all of them were intercepted by US forces. Yesterday, if we talk about the deal, first Axios reported that Axios has now become notorious for bringing such news because no news is confirmed, and such news comes out just to drive the market. The news was that the US and Iran have tentatively agreed to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, and further, during these 60 days, talks will begin separately regarding Iran's nuclear program. But Donald Trump still needs a few more days for this deal. What does it mean? Rather, when developments were coming, it was that the US carried out some military strikes. After that, Iran retaliated. Kuwait went on high alert. And amidst all these things, this news came out. This is also happening, and the ceasefire is also happening. Yes. And the White House confirmed from Axios that an agreement was reached on such a deal. But when Iran was asked about it, Iran's response was that the ongoing talks about the MOU being finalized are incorrect. And they have not publicly disclosed to Pakistani mediators or the world yet that the text is actually finalized. The matter is a bit complicated. Do not see the US and Iran in isolation. Do not see it because there has been no official confirmation from both parties yet that the preliminary text has been finalized from both sides or the ceasefire has been extended. The US is saying one thing through Axios, Iran is saying something different separately, and they have made it clear that when this text is finalized, they will inform the world first, and also Pakistan, which is the mediator. And yesterday, when Scott Bassent, their Finance Minister of the US, was also asked if the deal was really made? Was an MOU made? He himself said that there is a back and forth going on between both parties. No official confirmation has come out yet. And the decision will be made by Donald Trump, and as usual, he has three red lines: first, the Strait of Hormuz should be opened; their uranium should be handed over to the US; and their nuclear program should be ended. These are their programs, these are their red lines. Oil prices are still trading with a slight decline, and this month is likely to be the worst month for crude oil since 2020. A lot of data also came out, which you were talking about. A good piece of news on PCE inflation was that the core PCE inflation was better than expected. A month-on-month increase of 0.2% was seen, while the estimates were 0.33%, and the core PCE full year-on-year increased by 3.3%, which was as per estimates. The first quarter GDP was revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Jobless claims increased slightly. Durable goods orders increased. So the data was also mixed. There was no trending macro data. But one stock that was in focus yesterday was Snowflake. It is a SaaS company whose shares saw a 37% surge. First, the results were good, and they also made a $1 billion deal with Amazon, due to which the stock increased, and before yesterday's session, the stock was down 20% year-to-date. It has completely reversed and is now YTD positive. So, no such deal has been announced yet. The matter is still hanging in the air, and the entire market is reacting only because of all the reports. This is the reason for the pressure of the gift nifty. So, do not look at crude oil. Crude oil is technically also having its monthly contract expiry today. That expiry will be at play. The matter is complicated, sir. Gift Nifty indicates a pressure of 5.25 points and a weakness of half a percent.