Transcription
Hello everyone, it's Atri, your financial analyst present on the crypto market for now 7 years. I make videos on YouTube and for my private community to help you make the best decisions regarding your investments. And we're going to talk Bitcoin today. We had the news this morning, we were live on Discord at 4 AM to follow the rate hike in Japan. So we had the rate hike understood, meaning a 0.25 point increase. What was interesting and the reason why we all connected very early on Discord, is because the market could react very negatively to this news. Based on what we were seeing on Bitcoin and cryptos, the news was priced in, but on the stock market, it was much less obvious. So it was quite important to see live what was happening to see if we needed to manage positions, to see how the market would react. And for now, the market is reacting quite neutrally. We have a small rebound since the 84,000 zone and so once again, we will analyze what is happening here and what are the prospects for the future. For now, this zone is holding and it is a crucial zone because a lot is happening at the macro level, at the market level, and at the asset rotation level, as we call it.
Firstly, what is rather important to see here is that we really have all the key elements of a bottom zone. The first element is an accumulation or in any case what appears to be a strong accumulation and displacement of tokens. You can see here compared to the whales who hold portfolios of more than 1 million Bitcoin, we have a real increase where, on the contrary, we have precisely the small portfolios of 10 to 1000 Bitcoin that are selling. So, it would seem according to this chart that we have what is called a change of hands, meaning the very big ones are absorbing the sales of the very small ones. At this level, you know, we cannot be content, unfortunately, with one chart, one source, because sometimes sources do not coincide. So, it is quite important to look on all types of sites and all types of indicators to see if we really have these elements taking place or if, precisely, we have elements that contradict each other.
And for now, if we also look at what is happening on Glass Node, we can also see an absorption by portfolios holding more than 1000 Bitcoin. You can see that since the dip, we have been accumulating. It would seem that we really have a change of hands in this famous zone of 84,000 to 85,000 dollars where more than 1 million Bitcoin have circulated. I say circulated because we don't know if it's new, I repeat, what the proportion was between the accumulated Bitcoin (so bought) and those that simply transited from one wallet to another because the CBDC here reflects these two types of data. Clearly, something is happening here because the price has already been pushed back once, twice, and now for the third time the map here, you can see it, is not yet updated. we are still at 85,000 dollars. And so we have a second concordant element that displays in addition the same number of Bitcoin that have changed hands, a number that we find here on this chart and which is around 1 million.
Another piece of data that is important is what is called the bid and ask ratio which is right here at the spot market level. Why? Because it will reveal to you if precisely on the spot it's buying a lot, if it's rather on derivatives that it's buying, and what we can see for now is that it's buying massively. So we have a third piece of data from a third site that calculates this data differently and which reveals that here we have precisely a spot accumulation that is quite substantial and much more substantial than what we could have typically had between March and April, the date of the last bottom. If we zoom out, you can see that every time we have had these big bid ratios right here that have gone up to more than 0.30 points, we have had bottom zones, notably here, here as well. Here, we had in any case a very big rebound that made Bitcoin go from 54,000 dollars to 70,000 dollars, which is still about a +30% on Bitcoin. And in the past, well, we can see that these have been major reversal zones. Here, end of correction, here, start of bullish extension, here, end of correction, and here, end of hypermarket with the biggest ratios we had which were above 0.40.
So we clearly have a zone in which quite a lot is happening. A zone which, moreover, is supposed to mark a bottom to maintain the bullish structure of Bitcoin in higher time frames. Now, we need to be careful about a piece of data that I just mentioned, which is asset rotation. This is something that will be key. This is data that will be key in the coming weeks and months to really understand what will happen between the markets. When I say between the markets, I mean between the bond markets, the commodity markets, Forex, crypto, and the stock market.
And just before we take a look, I remind you that registrations are still open to join the private group. You can click on the link in the description millennium-crypto.fr. You will click here on "s'inscrire" (register) and you will watch the short 2-minute video that will inform you about all the services we offer to the private community. The private community is on Discord here and we do a lot of things. I said it at the beginning of the video, we have audio rooms when there are emergencies, even when we want to discuss several specific topics. There are lives on Thursdays and there is especially a lot of interaction between members and the team, where you will find specialists in all areas: financial analysis, on-chain, technical. And so this is where it happens and where we give everything, including our portfolio, which crypto we buy, which crypto we sell, and which position we will take during this famous asset rotation.
Asset rotation, we are clearly seeing it in the ascent phase of gold, silver, and precious metals, which announce, depending on the case and on macro, several types of scenarios to follow. These scenarios will depend on whether the market is exiting a defensive cycle, as we call it, or if we are exiting an economic expansion. Generally, commodities set the tone. The steps to carry out an asset rotation or a cycle end are as follows. Normally, we see gold perform, then once gold seems to have made its blow-off top and rises again to make a final push, silver clearly comes to perform and outperform gold. This is a condition that is truly key and which indicates that precisely we are at the end of a cycle for precious metals. Gold and silver with a gold-silver ratio that falls and drops as much as possible, generally below 60, or even 55 points. This announces major changes and an exit from a defensive cycle to an offensive cycle, or an exit from an economic expansion to a recessionary level or even a bear market. So this is data that I, of course, keep for the members. So if you want to know where we are going and what to do next, I invite you to subscribe, join the private group, and you will have exactly all your answers with all our strategies for the future which are published in two rooms. Here, analysis questions and position-taking questions.
In any case, this zone, as I have already told you, is a crucial zone and in which you really must not mess up your position-taking, your risk management, and if you still have cash, the assets on which you will take positions. I'll stop there for today. This was a very short update video. We will see each other on Monday for another video in which we will address extremely important topics. Subscribe, like the video, leave a comment.