Transcription
Well, it's week 17. So, if you're watching this video, hopefully you're in your fantasy football finals or you're just a hardcore Hayden Winks and Josh Norris fan still watching this even though you've been eliminated. We're going to go through the running back rankings and the tight end rankings.
Did want to have a couple caveats right off the top. It is Tuesday morning, way, way earlier than we typically do this. Thank you. The NFL having three games on Christmas and then games on Saturday. So, we have to record these rankings way earlier on underdognetwork.com for those that know how to read still. I will be updating things. There's a lot of weather that I'm trying to forecast, you know, six, seven days uh into the future here. We got injury reports coming down. So, these are way too early rankings. Go to underdog network.com for the final ones before you submit those lineups.
But first, number one fantasy running back is Christian McCaffrey. And I'm just going to let this clip roll out from July of this year. And hopefully we've all learned something from this. If you want to come in first place in your league, you roll the dice on Christian McCaffrey. Nobody has been better since we've been doing this podcast at scoring fantasy points. Moral of the story, predicting injuries for players who are currently not injured is very hard to do. If you have the formula, please let me know. But upside is what matters. I understand fading players who are already injured, but trying to predict injuries with players who are currently healthy, dangerous, dangerous game. So, congrats for those who took on the risk with Christian McCaffrey. I'm assuming a lot of you guys that followed this channel drafted Christian McCaffrey and you've obviously are going to be in your finals.
Number two, Jir Gibbs. This one's pretty simple. Just right now they're projected for like 26 points. We're not dealing with a bunch of weather. Uh the Vikings defense is kind of up and down in how they play. Uh so I'm just kind of sticking with where Jir Gibbs has been over like the last month. We have not seen nearly as much David Montgomery. I can't explain why the Lions were so bad running the ball last week, but we also saw Jir Gibbs in the PPR scam roll as a backup plan. I think that the Lions into your offensive line just like not where where it typically is. There lots of injuries up front. Uh but right now he just kind of earned the right to be ranked really high.
Number three, Bejon. Same thing here. Right now the the Falcons, it's not a great situation. They're only projected for 20.5 points. The Rams defense is coming to town. It's the games really matters for you know the Falcons in their draft uh status for the Rams pick I should say like near the top 12. Uh but Kyle Pittz has been balling in the red zone. Drake London comes back. So, I think that Bejan's like touchdown odds versus the other guys maybe slightly down, but at the same time, catching a million passes, ripping off these explosive runs, he's earned every single right. I just think that his matchup versus the other ones is a slightly worse this week.
Running back four is James Cook. I posted this over on Underdog Network. The neutral pass rate for the Bills over the last month, they're dead last. 37%. Like way, way, way as an outlier right now. On top of that, this game looks like it's going to have like that snowy rain slop in the forecast. That might mean even more carries for James Cook. It is against the Eagles. I believe Jaylen Carter, the defensive tackle, will be back. The Bills are only projected for 23 points. So, I don't think this is going to be as crazy of of a game for James Cook. That said, he's the running back two on running back three usage. So, like the other guys in kind of iffier situations, James Cook just deserves the benefit of the doubt. Right now in the underdog pick and lobby, he's projected for 104 and a half total yards. Uh, anyone projected for over a 100red deserves top five love.
All right, maybe a slightly bold call, but I don't know why that even would be the case. Travis ETN has just been a fantasy running back one for a very long time. This month, he's a running back five and running back 11 usage. No. Basel Tutin with that finger injury. We've seen him absolutely go crazy as a receiver after Toutin left two weeks ago. Scores another receiving touchdown in this one. If Jacksonville can put up 34 points in Denver, we should feel really good about this situation. Uh they're facing the Colts defense. If you just watch that Monday Night Football game, one, they're on a short uh uh week for the Colts defense. Number two, they're just not very good at this point. So Jacksonville's project for the fifth most points on the week. It's all Travis ETN, just a little bit of Laquent Allen and pass protection, but aside from that, I think ETN's looked good. Trevor Lawrence has looked good. Liam Con's a total machine right now. Uh, so there's really like no negative notes I can say about Travis ETN at this point.
RB6, Devon, A Chain, went back and watched all the Quinner stuff. I would say for a what, seventh round rookie, I thought he was kind of all right. There's no like traits that made me feel like he cannot play quarterback at a kind of backup low-end starter level. Uh there was nothing about him that made me think that he's going to be a guy either. It was pretty similar to actually the Tua stuff where I thought that his downfield accuracy was pretty mediocre. The ball's not very live. But can he throw the ball into the flats? Quinn U can throw the ball into the flats and that's all that we care about with Devon Aan. has been the RB7 this month despite losing like a lot of work because of an injury because of these kind of fourth quarters where they've been completely blown out. That's the risk here. Do not love the matchup either. It's Buccaneers usually a pass funnel. But I did go back a couple weeks ago, Bejian Robinson faced Tampa Bay in that game. Bean had eight of 11 targets caught for 82 receiving yards. I wouldn't be surprised if Devon Agent has a big game as a receiver in this one. And in general, Tampa Bay's defense has just not been nearly as good. I saw Hassan Reic kind of limp off to the sideline last week. That's an edge rusher for them on top of that. So, uh, it's not as clean of a spot with Miami right now. The team total is pretty low, but at the same time, it's pretty damn easy to get Devon Aan the ball.
RB7 is Chase Brown. Only at 82 and a half total yards in the underdog pickum lobby. I kind of like that one to be honest. The last couple weeks has just been monster performances from Chase Brown. Since Joe Burrow's been back over the last month, he's the running back three on running back seven usage. I think the Bengals offensive line has been a lot better. Chase Brown's short yard success rate is infinitely better than where it was uh previously. Most importantly, the Bengals this week have the highest team total on the slate. They're projected for over 30 points. That's like what we talked about with the Lions at the peak of their power, the Bills at the peak of their powers. It's rare to see teams project for over 30 points. When we see that, we have to treat the running backs on those teams as upside RB1s. I would say on top of all that, Arizona's been the second worst uh fantasy running back defense over the last five games, averaging 30 half PPR points allowed over those last five games. Walter Nolan, their first round defensive tackle. He left last week uh carded off and they also lost a uh starter in the secondary with a torn Achilles on top of that. So uh there's a little bit of weather in the forecast right there. We'll throw that caveat out there. Chase Brown does lose some snaps to smon Bellcow, but 30 points against this Cardinals defense. Absolutely too big to fail. Chase Brown, it was a wild wild ride to get here. But in the fantasy playoffs, he's been nails, and I do think we should expect that to continue once again.
Running back to eight is Kairen Williams. This is kind of where he's been uh the entire season. Uh in some really clean matchups, he can finish as a top five running back. In other matchups, he kind of tail off into RB2 land. Uh this month, he's been the running back 12 on running back nine usage. He's still rotating drives with Blake Cororm. Like you just have to accept that every other drive will go to Blake Cororm who's also been good. At the same time, the Rams are the highest rushing success rate uh running back offense of the decade. Like not not an exaggeration. Kairen Williams, Blake Corm, both been excellent. I think that the Falcons have played better football recently against the run, but you also go and look at the opponents. They haven't really faced anybody that's that uh threatening as just a rushing offense. Uh this game really matters for the Rams for multiple reasons. And then on top of that, last week without Devonte Adams, the Rams had the most snaps they'd ever had with three tight ends on the field. And then attached to that, and this would make sense, it was also one of their lowest neutral pass rates of the season at 45%. For a lot of the season, they've been well above average, 55%, 60%, even a couple games where they would even go up to like 85% uh neutral pass. This last week, they ran the ball a lot more. I don't think that's a coincidence with Dvonte Adams out. So, monster team total as usual with the Rams here. Feel very good about Ky Williams and Blake Cororm in a second.
All right, it's been a very long time since I've had Ashton Genty truthfully like anywhere near the top 10. It's not just because last week he looked like a total monster breaking all those tackles, two super long touchdowns. the fact that they got Gino Smith back in the lineup. You felt a difference between Kenny Picket and Gino Smith, but really, it's all about the matchup in this one. Ashton Genty's role has been as a true Bellcow for a very, very long time. He really just has not come off the field very much. So, it comes down to how competent are the Raiders. And it's not about the Raiders side to me this week. It's about the damn Giants. The Giants have fired three coaches at three different times in the season. Like, you don't see that. I usually see they're clearing house all at once three different times including the defensive line. They've got injuries on the defensive line. They have not been able to stop anybody. It's by far the worst rushing EPA defense in the NFL. The Giants are so incompetent themselves that the Raiders are actually favored in this game by a point. Their team total is actually close to like league average at almost 22 points. We have not said that about the Raiders in a very long time. Last week they were projected for 12 damn points. So this is the week we said what happens when Ashton Genty gets like a league average supporting cast. This is what it will be this week. Everything about this matchup screams average to me. Bad on bad equals average. Hopefully Ashton Genty could break enough tackles and go the distance. So he's the RB 13 in usage this month. Uh I know he's a good player. Hopefully we can pay off a big game for the consolation brackets uh league championship.
All right 10. This one's been super up and down. Javvante Williams started out really hot for the last like two months. It's kind of slowed down. Uh this week I kind of just want to like crumble up those those numbers and pretend they don't exist because it's the damn Pan or not the damn Panthers. It's the damn Commanders on a short week. Obviously the Commanders can't stop anybody. Uh they have their quarterback three likely to start in this one. So Dallas should have GameScript absolutely on their side. Their team total is at 29 points. Uh this a fabulous spot for Javvante Williams. Uh he's been dealing with this like neck injury. He's not been a full participant. So even like this Monday was limited in practice. So I would love to see a full practice for Javvante Williams because he was losing some snaps to Malik Davis this past week, but the upside is so evident here. He's the running back 12 in usage this month. This is an absolute eruption spot for him. Go over to the underdog pickum lobby to make sure I'm not losing my mind. I'm not. He's projected for 16 and a quarter half PPR points over there. So, uh, if you believe me, lock him in as a top 10 running back. If you don't believe me, use promo code the sh promo code the show. Play five, get 75. You can take the lower on Javvante Williams at 16 and a quarter fantasy points.
Running back 11, Saquon Barkley. He's projected for 99 and a half total yards. We saw that spin move and then broke it to the house. That was awesome. Saquon Barkley looked like a superstar this last week. Uh early reports are that Lane Johnson has a chance to return in this one. We'll obviously finalize that as we get closer uh to kickoff here, but I think the Eagles offense has felt a little bit better since Nick Serriani has went out and helped their offensive coordinator. That happened about three weeks ago. A couple wrinkles here and there that I've liked some of their adjustments. Uh the Bills run defense has been really, really bad. I will just note that the team total for the Eagles is only at 20 and a half points. They're on the road. The Bills play a really like controlling game uh style on offense. Really slow pace like I talked about. So sometimes like the other team just does not have the ball enough uh to like really rack up a bunch of fantasy points. There's also going to be some like rain snow nonsense uh in the forecast. So I'll update all that as we get closer. So, individually, a good matchup for Saquon Barkley. Zooming back out, team total is low. The Bills, while they give up a lot of rushing yards, uh still don't allow that many plays. So, we'll see about the weather, but Saquon Barkley a fringe RB1 if you were able to survive him as a top five pick.
Derrick Henry's my running back 12. This one, just throwing my hands up in the air. I will update this when we get new information. There's a bunch of things going on. First of all, Lamar Jackson left with that back injury. He's questionable to play. I don't know what the hell is going on with Lamar Jackson. I can tell that Harbaugh is really frustrated with Lamar and his ability to play through injuries. You can just see the timeline throughout the last like couple years. Uh where Harbaugh thinks he's going to return, Lamar Jackson can't go. Uh we saw that practice report from earlier this year. Uh Harbaugh said it was a just a bruise and he's dayto-day. His teammates uh said that Lamar Jackson was barely able to move. So, I have no idea what's going to go on here. Obviously, if Lamar Jackson's going to play, I would move Derrick Henry up. It is December. We've seen his numbers go all the way up. This is assuming he's not going to play. Their team total is only at 19 points right now, which makes me feel like the people betting on this do not believe that Lamar Jackson's going to play. Will say the Packers don't have Micah Parsons, don't have a defensive tackle, and Devonte Wyatt. Uh, so yeah, we'll see about Lamar. Something's in the water though with Baltimore right now. I just I just don't understand why Harbaugh and Lamar don't seem to be on the same page with all this.
Another one. Don't know the status of it. Trayvon Henderson. I figured let's assume he's going to play and then we'll make adjustments if he does miss. Concussion protocol. About 5050 chance for him to return. This one I've comped him the entire season. It's the Raheem Moer role. He kind of splits the work at the goal line. You're really here signing up for the long runs, uh, outside zone cut backs, pitches, classic stuff that we see when you're just faster than everybody else. You have 60 yard touchdowns in your back pocket. That would be be especially true against the Jets here. The Jets linebackers are so slow and pathetic. There's a reason why the defensive coordinator was fired. There's a reason why uh we had that Josina Anderson quote where uh Aaron Glenn, the head coach for the Jets, was talking about how bad the linebackers were uh between you and I. Uh but I can tell you this, they absolutely are just pathetic. So, the Patriots projected for 28 points here, the fourth highest of the week. If Trayvon Henderson can go, we have to fire him up. It's a boom bust profile here. Like, there's absolutely a chance where he can totally dud for you. Like in fact, Raandre Stevenson had the first two carries uh for the Patriots even this last week. But if you were kind of stacking up who's the most likely to have a 50-yard touchdown, there would only be a couple players I would rank ahead of Trayvon. That's a Trayvon stat. That's absolutely a New York Jets linebacker stat at the same time.
Jonathan Taylor, running back 14. Uh don't know if Philip Rivers is going to play again. They're technically not eliminated. They have a 1% chance according to The Athletic. They have to win both their games. They need a bunch of help. Uh so we'll see if it's going to be Philip Rivers. We hope it's going to be Philip Rivers to kind of keep this game close because everything else about this is kind of an icky situation for Jonathan Taylor. They're currently six and a half point dogs to Jacksonville. Jacksonville's offense has been lights out right now. But also defensively, how teams attack Jacksonville is always through the air. It's the highest neutral pass rate allowed on defense on the season. And Jonathan Taylor has been kind of subbed out in some of these patching passing situations uh for like kind of distant RB2, RB3 types in the offense. So, he needs the big play. He needs the goal line touchdown. Philip Rivers gives him those opportunities. He's so damn smart out there. We'll see if they go to Riley Leonard or Anthony Richardson to kind of close out the season, but hopefully that 1% chance of making the playoffs allows Philip Rivers to do one more dance out there. Jonathan Taylor's been more of an RB2 with upside than a surefire RB1 over the last couple of weeks.
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All right, another rookie here, R.J. Harvey. This one's really difficult because if you look at just like the last five or six weeks, R.J. Harvey's been a borderline top five, top eight guy. that's both in uh fantasy points and his usage. So, over the last month, he's been the RB4 on RB8 usage. Kind of like looking deeper into that, he's faced some like really garbage teams uh throughout that stretch. And then last week was kind of a weird situation where the Broncos passed a whole lot more than they typically do, but on top of that, Jal Mclofflin was actually getting some carries at the expense of RJ Harvey. He only had 8.1 expected half PPR points in this last game. Now, RJ Harvey also had a couple awesome plays. He got out in space as a receiver a couple times and then he had that highlight touchdown run, breaking a couple tackles. Uh, I also love the matchup here. Denver, they're projected to win by almost two touchdowns here against the Chiefs. Uh, they have a 25point team total here. Uh, we'll see about how much effort the Chiefs want to have on defense. Uh, Trent McDuffy, a corner, missed this last game. Uh, this team's never been eliminated. So maybe someone like Chris Jones is like, "Hey, I'm going to take my sweet old time out here. Enjoy being eliminated. Let my body kind of recover." The Broncos offensive line is awesome. They have a ton to play for. They still have a coin flip chance of having the first seed. So RJ Harvey absolutely can finish as a top three, top five fantasy running back this week. Just did want to note Julie McGoffin did play a little bit more this last game than in previous matchups, but huge favorite's going to ride with the rookie.
DeAndre Swift is my running back 16. This month he's been the running back 13 on running back 14 usage. Nothing's really changed here. Uh Manungai and Swift are both rotating. did want to note DeAndre Swift did have a pretty brutal rep in pass protection and I thought Kyle Nungai played a little bit more uh after that happened, but I don't want to zoom in too close at that because that's kind of been the case the entire year where DeAndre Swift's not perfect, but the outside zone cut back athleticism that he has running behind Darnell Wright who I could not believe did not make the Pro Bowl in this one. It's worked for the Chicago Bears this week. They still have a 24 and a half point team total despite playing on the road. They get the 49ers defense on a short week. They just played on Monday Night Football. Uh and Philip Rivers actually able to kind of move the ball pretty well against the 49ers. Uh lots of injuries for San Francisco still. So DeAndre Swift, he's been very boom bust. Sometimes he's an RB1, sometimes he's an RB3. I'll split the difference here, but he's been a fantastic pick if you've had him all season long.
Another rookie, Omarian Hampton. We don't know about Kamani Vidal. He's apparently dayto-day with a neck injury. Neck injuries, I always assume you're going to miss at least a game. The Chargers absolutely balled off uh balled out this last week. Omarin Hampton was out there at the goal line for a touchdown. Don't let that fool you though. This offensive line is still an absolute disgrace. Just Herbert looked like an absolute monster. Uh, this is a spot where I think Hampton's going to get a whole bunch of work, but at the same time, it's against the Texans. The Chargers offense right now is projected for just over 20 points. That's a little bit below average. So, Hampton Bellcow on a pretty average offense given the circumstances. Um, I still think he can run. He can rip off a big play. Uh, the Texans linebacker was missing this last week. We'll update the injury report. uh uh in a couple days here, but for the most part, we have Bellcow, Marin Hampton, a Kamani Vidal does not uh play and that means he's pretty much a must start.
Josh Jacobs don't know yet. I know this, he was not himself. He rushed back this last week that backfired. Fumble at the goal line was very uncharacteristic for Josh Jacobs. But after that happened, I think he played one maybe two snaps as a decoy. Emanuel Wilson finished off the game. That's just the reality of the situation right now. Josh Jacobs could have scored two touchdowns. He had multiple uh goal line attempts this last game and nobody would be complaining or he can have a setback in the the middle of the game and then get kind of phased out like he did this past game. Uh I don't know if Jordan Love is going to come back from concussion protocol. I don't know if Malik Willis is even going to play with that that throwing shoulder injury. Uh the offense looks completely different depending on which the quarterback is out there. So, I'm just going to update this one when I have more information. Currently, the Green Bay Packers only have a 21 12 point team total, which is a little bit lower than it typically is. So, uh I'll get back to you guys with my boy Josh Jacobs. Um please be healthy before you play this next time. Too important for Green Bay. They're fighting for their lives right now. Uh, we need a healthy Josh Jacobs.
Bucky Irving is my running back. 19. A new injury has kind of hit the timeline here. Tristan Worves, their left tackle, has a toe injury. It's a new one for them. They're already missing both their guards. You missed your best player on the entire team and Tristan Worfs on top of that. That would kind of like really throw this Buccaneers offense uh into a wrench. Bucky just keeps losing these short yardage touches. Like there was three of them to Shawn Tucker. He scores a touchdown on one. Now, it's not all of them on like that that jump ball touchdown to Mike Evans. Bucky Irving was out there. Bucky Irving also got tackled at the one yard line for a rep. So, it's not guaranteed that he's not going to score a uh goal line touchdown, but right now it's a lot of attempts. Even Rashad White got a goal line opportunity uh instead of Bucky Irving this last week. So, um I like how the team total's high. Bucky Irving is getting a lot of touches uh between the 20s. They just have not been hitting nearly as hard without Liam Con. They have not been hitting nearly as hard with Baker Mayfield's injury and then also this offensive line stuff. So, he's been kind of a a trap. Boom bust RB2 at this point. Buccaneers offense just kind of feels pretty mid uh due to all these circumstances.
Aaron Jones, I'm expecting a Bellcow role here. Jordan Mason ankle injury carded off. I'm guessing he's just out for the season. I'm not expecting JJ McCarthy to play either because he did not practice with that hand injury. Ryan Kelly, their center, picked up his third concussion of the year as well. So, we're losing a lot of bodies with the Minnesota Vikings. That said, in that kind of same scenario last week, Aaron Jones did have a season high 16.2 expected half PPPR points. That offense was miserable to watch uh pretty much in both halves. They had a couple moments, but for the most part, we're not able to get it done against the Giants. I'm expecting them to kind of struggle once again. Uh team total wise is just uh below average at 19. You get the Lions defense who's also banged up, but I don't know, man. Aaron Jones is out there a ton. He's got like in-game uh injury risk himself. Um but he's his role is kind of too big to fail. He just has not been nearly as effective. I think it's going to be difficult when you got Max Bromer on a short week with the backup center. You can see how this game kind of just gets sideways for the Vikings, but um it's going to be him and my boy Xavier Scott. And hopefully that means Aaron Jones goal line attempts this time around.
Back to back with the Steelers running backs. Uh want to do a little bit more research throughout the week um on this one, but both these guys had awesome outings this last time around. Obviously Jaylen Warren scores two 45 yard uh touchdowns uh this last game and then Kenny Gainwell also has a 45 yard touchdown and I wanted to highlight that one specifically because you watch Aaron Rogers who had Kenny Gainwell there's only 10 seconds left in the half say get out to this outside right now right now and he knows that he has man coverage out there against Alex Analone a linebacker Aaron Rogers goes like the backside immediately and just throws an absolute prayer to Kenny Gainwell who comes down with it and scores. But when he comes back to the sideline, there was a video where Aaron Rogers turns to Kenny Gainwell, goes, "You [ __ ] baller and was like super stoked." And this has just been kind of brewing with Kenny Gainwell for a while now. So over the last month, Kenny Gainwell has been a top 15 asset. That's even in half PPR. In full PPR, I think that's even more true. DK Metaf, we know he's going to be suspended for uh the next two games as well. So Kenny Gainwell, the PPR scam. And then Jaylen Warren has been rock solid. He's been the running back 14 and running back 18 usage this month. Now, so like why do I have these guys lower than typical? It's because the Steelers are projected for 19 points. They get the Cleveland Browns in this one. Uh that's going to be a sloppy game. I don't even have to pull up uh weather.com for this one. Cleveland on December 28th. I know what the weather is. It's [ __ ] And I'm expecting it to be a very running backheavy uh game plan. Once again, I will acknowledge Aaron Rogers playing probably the best ball since he popped his Achilles. Um, so I think both these guys are absolute must start here and I really don't see that much of a difference between them and let's say like Travon. Uh, I think it's pretty much a big flat tier down here. All these guys are awesome flex options if you can. Um, yeah. And Steelers just been super super reliable when it comes to targeting and giving their running backs a bunch of touches.
Kenny Gainwell, not Kenny Gainwell, Kenneth Walker, the other Kenny. He's been the opposite of consistent. Last week, we see him rip off a couple huge runs. One for a touchdown, the other, of course, tackled at the five for a Zack Charbanet touchdown. That happens. Um, he's still not going to be playing in the two-minute drill. Um, but we know that uh Kenneth Walker can rip off some big plays and his odds of ripping off a big play are higher when they're projected for 25 and a half points. They're also higher when you're facing a Panthers defense. That's just really bad at linebacker right now. So, you know the story. Boom bust. He can finish as the running back literally 42 on the week. He can also finish as a running back six on the week as he did this last time around. So, um, flip a coin. You guys tell me if you have a better read on this Kenneth Walker situation. No two-minute drill. Kind of can get phased out of games, but if you are going to pick your spots here, 25 and a half team total is on his side.
Tony Pard, another one where do you want to ride the hot hand? I would totally understand it. If Tony Pard was the reason you are in the fantasy finals and you want to say I live and die by Tony Pard, awesome. I think it's the same tier as a bunch of the guys we just talked about. The reality of the situation is last week Tai Spears did get the only inside the five yard line carry of the game. They're also projected as a team for 18 and a half points. The weather is also going to be pretty bad in this one. And Tai Spears was getting a bunch of carries even in the first half. So Tony Pard pin pole get another explosive. I can see it. I can also see this be the game where now we get a instead of pinpole we get a rug pull. So I don't know about this one. He's very boom bust to me. He's a running back nine on running back 27 usage this month. I think the Titans offense because Cam Ward's been playing a little bit better. Their offensive line is kind of really settled in. I think it's a better situation now than it was like two months ago. But the reality is he's still splitting the work with Ta Spears. It is still a bad offense all the way around. and banking on long touchdowns is something that tends to be awesome until it's not. So, I hope he does it again. I'm settling him as a boom bust RB23 for the week.
Blake Korm, pretty much the same thing except that he's just the RB2 on the best offense in the NFL. That's once again the case here. The Rams project for 29 points. That's the second highest of the week this month. He's the running back eight on running back 37 usage. It's been the same exact rotation driveby drive largely. Cororum's been excellent. Kairen Williams has been excellent. They can run the exact same offense with either of those guys in there. I mentioned this with Kairen Williams uh up top. The Rams last week had a really high neutral run rate at over 55%. That was kind of out of line, which they typically do. I think that lines up because they did not have Devonte Adams. Uh I think they can run on the Falcons here. game really really matters for uh playoff odds and also their draft pick. So, they definitely want to go beat down the Falcons. I think the Falcons run defense has been better recently, but against bad opponents, they did not all of a sudden just add 20, 30 pounds across their defensive line. I think they can get ran on here. Uh so, it just comes down to can we get that Blake Corm long touchdown? Could the drives that the Rams march all the way down the field for? Is that the Blake Corm drive or the Kairen Williams drive? Nobody knows. I know that Blake Cororm since like about 10 weeks ago once they've settled into this role, he's been kind of the running back 25 on average. If you want to roll the upside, by all means, go for it. Last week was a season high with 12 expected half PPR points.
Oh, Raandre Stevenson. This is where I have him ranked. If Tayvon Henderson clears concussion protocol, if Raandre Stevenson is the bellcow back, which by the way, Terrell Jennings, if you guys remember him, he's also been banged up right now. If Raandre is the Bellcow back and they're facing the Jets who have terrible uh linebackers and the game might have a little bit of weather and on top of that they're projected for top five points, Raandre Stevenson, you will go pretty much right next to Saquon Barkley and Dererick Hendry. I'm not kidding. This is a fantastic spot. If Raandre Stevenson is the bellcow, it's such a good spot that even if Trayvon Henderson does play, I do think that Raandre Stevenson would still be a quality flex play similar to Blake Corm, just you're probably not going to have the same odds of a really long touchdown. So over the last five weeks without Quinnon Williams for the Jets, they have been the worst fantasy running back defense, averaging over 30 half PPR points per game. So if we split that in half between Trayvon and Raandre, still gets it done. if it's just Randre out there. He legitimately has some upside. Not I'm not gonna rank him as a top 10 fantasy running back because that's insane. But it would not be crazy if Raandre Stevenson turns out to be the guy you need. We'll see if Trayvon Henderson can can clear concussion protocol, but love the spot either way.
Kyle Manungai, nothing really has changed here. They're not like driving or rotating by drive. It's just kind of rotating by series and kind of a little bit of hot hand going on there. He's been the running back 27 on running back 21 usage. Super high team total once again over 24 points. Uh everything about the situation looks pretty clean here. 49ers defense is pretty mediocre. I'm ranking Kyle Manungai where he's finished for the large uh chunk of the season after that by week when the ground game like really really hit their full form. So we'll see about the injuries at the wide receiver, but Kyle Manungai nothing's changed.
Rico Dout things have kind of changed here. There's like the opportunity for Chuba Hubard to get the hot hand. We saw that about two or three weeks ago. Rico Dattle is not playing the late down snaps right now. That all goes to Chuba Hubard at this point. Last week, the Panthers could not run the ball because they faced the Buccaneers had to pass the ball. Got a nice win uh because Bryce Young played pretty well. This week, same situation. It's really hard to run on the sea the Seattle Seahawks. The Panthers team total is only at 18 points. So if we're in a committee and our team's projected for 18 points, then it starts looking like the Tyrone Tracy's and the Chris Rodriguez's and the Michael Carters and you know the the guys that we just mentioned in Raandre Stevenson, Kyle Manungai. So more of a committee now. He's only the RB33 on RB22 usage. Going to downgrade him from that just because it's the Seattle defense.
RB29 Tyrone Tracy. I should have said this on the recap. Late in the game, Andrew Thomas, Pro Bowl left tackle, no doubt about it. Pulled up with a hamstring injury. He's not gonna play. I would be stunned if he played. He's ba barely able to walk to the sideline. This game matters only for who's going to get the first overall pick, the Raiders or the Giants. Both teams are terrible. For Tyrone Tracy specifically, a little bit below average team total. I think the Andrew Thomas injury is a big part of that. But last week was just a total disaster for the offense against Brian Flores. Luckily, Pete Carol's defense is not nearly as crazy and sophisticated as Brian Flores is. But Tyrone Tracy was rotating drives with Devin Singleary. Deon Singleary has been the slight favorite once they get inside the five yard line. Just because they trust his vision and just kind of like low man wins down at the goal line. But Tyron Tracy's going to catch passes. They were still super runheavy as they have been with Mike Kfka. I don't anticipate any of that changing. I just do worry about Andrew Thomas missing. There's like really just not a whole lot of talent left in New York.
Chris Rodriguez is the RB30. Last week was a season high 14.4 expected half PPR points. What was interesting about that is he got the start. He was getting used early in the first quarter. Got a bunch of goal line opportunities and then in the second quarter it was a whole lot of Jakori Kroski Merritt. He got like a full drive. He got a bunch of goal line carries himself. Typically Jaka Kroski Merritt was only playing in like the fourth quarter complete garbage time when it was Chris Rodriguez. Now that they've been eliminated now it's like a true threeback committee and it's going to be hard to predict who's going to play when. I don't like that situation when it's going to be Josh Johnson on a short week. So, we're talking about a really low team total for the Commanders. It's actually a little bit higher than I thought. It's at 21 and 3/4 points. Maybe Mariota is going to play. We'll I'll figure that out in the next couple days here, but still makes me nervous. The Cowboys are an obvious passfunnel defense. Just go ask the Chargers this last week. You need a touchdown from Chris Rodriguez because he's not involved in the pass game. He was the starting running back. He was not the entire bellcow running back on early situations. Jakori Kroski Merritt did get in there a little bit. So just a little bit more of a pause on C-rod RB31.
If you're wondering who the hell that is, that is Jaw Jordan there. Um, we don't know if Woody Marks is going to play. I do know that last week it was Jawar Jordan over Nick Chub for most of that game. Jaward Jordan had 12.1 expected half PPR points in week 16. The week before that, after Woody Marks left, he had 12.6 expected points. That's enough to get you in the flex category. I will say Texans just run blocking is a total disaster. They're better in pass protection than run blocking. Maybe Nick Chub plays a little bit more coming off of that rib injury. But it would be a tandem backfield if it's just these two on an offense I really don't trust right now against the Chargers who have been the best fantasy running back defense over the last five weeks. Texans only projected for 19 points. So even if Woody Marks comes back, I'm just not going to have a very aggressive ranking on any of these guys. I think most likely scenario would be a committee on a pretty bad offense given the matchup.
Bree Hall just a terrible situation for him. uh over the last month he's the RB39 on RB23 usage. This week they're projected for 15 points. You know, like what am I supposed to do with this Brady Cook stuff? He can rip off a big play at any point, but the situation is just so so terrible right now. And what I was kind of anticipating would be that Breeze Hall would at least catch passes in like negative game script. Like remember all those like offseason videos where it's just like a Breeze Hall is going to catch all these passes. Like we're not trading you because we love you. We're going to give you all these receptions, get you out in space. Like have you guys seen any of that? Like we had like the one touchdown on a screen, but aside from that, she's been super quiet for Bree Hall. Um, so they're projected to lose by like two touchdowns here. I mean really terrible situation. Uh and on top of that, Isaiah Davis is playing a little bit more than you'd like as well. So not looking good for Bree.
Michael Carter, he's the early down guy for the most part. I will note that Corey Ker did get a full drive in the second quarter. Immario de Marcado, he was still in the pass game role, so it's a little bit more of a three-back committee. Last week was only 7.4 expected half PPR points to Michael Carter. If I was told they're getting a goal line carry, I would say it's probably going to Michael Carter. Uh he is projected for 69 and a half total yards in the pick and lobby which is the exact same as Tony Pard. So once again kind of a pretty big flat tier in RB3 flex land. That's where I'm going with Michael Carter. I'd be pretty surprised if it's Amari D. Marcado back from the dead here. I think it's going to be Michael Carter on early downs until the season winds down. And uh as a reminder it's three backup offensive linemen for Arizona. At the same time, it's also the Bengals just completely inept defense.
Zack Charbet, what's there left to say? You know the deal with with Zack Charbanet. Nothing's changed there. Two-minute drill, get some goal line touches this month. He's the RB34 on RB34 usage. Where do I rank him? RB34.
Audrey Estay maybe a little bit more fascinating of a conversation. We'll see if Alvin Chimera picks up the phone. Assuming he does not. estimate was technically the starting running back, but the second play of the game was a Taesm Hill running back carry. He was not like even a foundation piece in the back field. Taesm out snapped him out carried him in like goal line situations. It was all Taesm Hill. We had like a bunch of nonsense with Taesm and that started on the second play. So, this was not like some like just like hat tip your last game in the Super Doome. We're going to give you a bunch of touches in the fourth quarter. This was like kind of a game plan thing and it was actually kind of working. I don't think they view Audrey Estimate as like some awesome talent. So even though that they scored 29 points against the Jets last week, Estimate only had seven expected half PPR points. Just like straight up not good enough. So, um yeah, we can keep it moving.
Isaiah Pacheco. I mean, the Chiefs, I can't believe I'm even saying this. The Chiefs are projected for 12 points, man. 12 12. He at least was playing over Kareem Hunt. He got the only goal line opportunity this last game, but you're projected for 12 points, you know. Then
After that, Tai J Spears. Same thing for him. Just a little bit of committee work. It was a season high last week for him in terms of usage. Uh, but that was like the only game where they blew out an opponent. I'm not expecting that at all. So maybe he's a bigger play threat than Estim Pacheco. So let's let's move him at least ahead of Estim Pacheco here for me. Weaves, thank you. Um, but obviously not a great situation.
Rocket Sanders, a nameless man in the wrong uniform. That's when you know things are really, really good. Uh, Quinnshot Judkins obviously going to be out. I don't know if Dylan Samson is going to return. He has a hand injury. He didn't practice at all this last week. I haven't heard anything from it. What happened was after Quinnshaw Judkins left, like right about halftime, Rocket Sanders was the early down back in like the, you know, Nick Chubb, Quinnshaw Judkins role, and then uh, Tayvon Williams. Yeah, Tayvon Williams was the pass game back here. Uh, it was a more of a committee approach. Rocket Sanders built not like a rocket, built more of like a space shuttle type. He's a 230 pound, you know, like bowling ball. He will be the goal line back. How many goal line attempts do we think that the Browns are going to have uh when their team total at 14 and three-quarters points? I don't know. I also know that the Steelers have an absolute menace at defensive tackle. Uh, Derek Harmon from Oregon, I absolutely loved him. He's really popping off on tape. So, nothing about this Rocket Sanders stuff is for me. If you have to pick him up and start him in your finals, bless you. But it's it's going to be tough sledding out there. And afterwards, Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier, nothing has really changed with these guys.
So, I would say clearly CMC's RB1. Then you got a pretty big next tier to about Chase Brown, Kairen Gentry, and then Javante uh all the way down to like Tony Pollard. We're feel pretty good about that tier. Those guys can have boom bust outings. Any of those guys can pop off. And then a strong RB3 list all the way to I'll say about Tyrone Tracy and then after that it's all prayers from there. So, uh, good luck for the fantasy running backs.
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All right, Josh is not here, which means we can actually take some time out to look at the fantasy tight ends. I'm glad we has appropriately put out the tiers here where Trey McBride projected for 73 and a half receiving yards. Uh, he's knocking on the door for a bunch of tight end uh like just historical numbers here. Uh, he nearly scored two touchdowns at the goal line this last week. The Falcons played it well. Uh, kind of had like a dud game for him, but I mean that's the only time we said that uh this entire season.
Brock Bowers back up to tight end two for me. Uh, things got a little bit wonky there with Kenny Pickett. Some really tough matchups, some like just really just bad games by the Raiders. Like we said with Gentry, this should be an average situation. The Giants are just so, so, so, so bad that the Raiders are actually favored for a game right here. Uh, since week nine when he returned in the games with Geno Smith, so no Kenny Pickett nonsense, he's averaging 15 half PPR points on 11.6 expected half PPR points. I think we have a big bounceback game for Brock Bowers. He scored a touchdown. Uh, but I would kind of project him to have like more yardage than we have had in the last uh couple weeks here. I don't think that Pete Carroll wants the first overall pick. They're going to really, really try to win this game. And I think Brock Bowers is a total mismatch for what the Giants are putting out there. So, um, I'll even say this, we've put Brock Bowers in the same tiers as Trey McBride. Like let's go all the way back to the August discussions here. Brock Bowers is back in our lives. I feel good. I would treat him as a true elite tight end one, not kind of like one of these cosplaying tight end ones. This is the week. Brock Bowers, maybe even the guy you need if you're lucky out there.
Kyle Pitts, he's been awesome, man. Just like easily the most fantasy points over like the last six weeks at the position. Just want to say Kyle Pitts, even with Drake London back out there, he ran 95% of the routes. He had a 26% target share. He had 15.5 expected half PPR points last week. And I know Drake London like didn't like ball out, but Drake London was getting a lot of looks. What's happened is Darnell Mooney, David Sills, Tyler Allgeier, all those guys. See you later. The ball is going to Kyle Pitts because it freaking works. So his touchdown was a motion at the snap against man-to-man coverage against the linebacker. Run across the field, just run right by everybody for a touchdown. He also had a screen reception. He had like a little uh flats dump off uh off of play action, lots of in-cuts where he was just he looks awesome, man. Like he looks more like a wide receiver than a tight end uh for a lot of the game. So, he's just like at the kind of top end of what you would expect Kyle Pitts when he was that top five pick. So, he's he's an elite tight end one right now. Uh, just wanted to note the Falcons team total is a lot lower than it typically is.
George Kittle left with that ankle injury. Just don't know. We'll get to him later on. George Kittle is playing. You got to play him. It's as simple as that. He looks he looks incredible right now. Uh, also want to say the 49ers offense is just it's a machine. Brock Purdy looks healthy. Trent Williams looks healthy again. Uh, CMC is the healthiest man I've ever seen. Uh, so got to start George Kittle if he's out there. We'll see.
Harold Fannon, same thing, man. This month he's a tight end three on tight end three usage. David Njoku has been out with that knee injury over the last three weeks. Without Njoku, he's averaging 14.2. Expected half PPR points, expected points. Like you just don't see that type of usage. That's like Trey McBride level workload. It's a scam of the year. I mean that as a total compliment because it absolutely works. They have no other way to move the football. I think that's especially true without Quinnshaw Judkins. I really do not like the Shador Sanders tape. Uh, but I really love the Harold Fannon tape out there. So, uh, he's currently the tight end's sixth, uh, all time among rookie tight ends. He has a chance to pass Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts this week. And then Keith Jackson, uh, is also uh, in line to be passed up. So, there's a chance Harold Fannon finishes as a top three tight end rookie all time on this terrible Browns offense. Is an incredible football player.
Next tier is kind of like Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert, Juwan Johnson. Uh, Hunter Henry, like we said, with the Jets running or linebacker group in a total disaster situation. Super high team total. He's been a tight end five in usage on top of that. Uh, he looks good. Dallas Goedert got fed a bunch of like uh under center play action targets a couple weeks ago. Scored a touchdown on a broken play with Jalen Hurts. But the fact that we're doing under center play action, you do see a lot of kind of like flat routes, some kind of big leak routes to tight ends specifically on those. If we get back to that, I think that'd be good news for Dallas Goedert. Uh, I don't think that the the linebacker play for the Bills is very good. So maybe a better way to attack them through the air with a tight end versus with receivers because they have better corners at this point.
Juwan Johnson had a really monster game last week. Uh, lots of underneath receptions for him. They weren't like manufactured, but they were kind of like first or second reads, high-low situations. Tyler Shough is playing excellent football. All the Taysom Hill usage is more as a running back, not a tight end there. Uh, so I think that Juwan like looks pretty clean uh without Devin Singletary, with Tyler Shough playing well. I do think that Juwan Johnson is back as a fantasy tight end one. He was like that for, remember, like throughout September uh as well.
Brendan Strange. They're projected for 27 points against the Colts. The Colts defense is not very good right now. Last week was a season high in his own usage. He had a couple targets down in the red zone over the last month. He's a tight end nine in usage. So, he looks like a tight end one. Trevor Lawrence playing really well. Good matchup for him.
Jake Ferguson's really, really tailed off. Just wanted to say that the Cowboys have a 29 point team total. The Commanders are terrible. Uh, I've seen Bobby Wagner get picked on with either running backs like Travis Etienne or with tight ends like Dallas Goedert beat him a couple times. I do think that it's a total mismatch. Could you get Jake Ferguson going this week? Um, I would kind of, you know, roll the dice there.
Speaking of Taysom Hill, this is the one I want to break down the most because he's the guy that you probably pick up off of waivers and potentially start. The debate is with Taysom, was last week's usage because it was his last game in the Superdome, or was he being utilized as a running back because they're onto their fourth string running back who just got to town and they don't actually trust him and they think that Taysom Hill gives them the best opportunity to move the chains? That's the debate. I'm going to go off of what I saw last week, which he started the game, the second play was a running back carry. He had under center normal outside zone pitches, you name it, as like a normal running back. He also had a quarterback sneak or two. He had a wildcat quarterback power uh run. He had a running back screen. He had a wide receiver screen. He even had a tight end wheel route. He had a fake punt uh fourth down conversion. And then just for fun in the the two-minute drill, and I think this was probably just for show and for some record-breaking and Superdome excitement, he had that garbage time post route to Chris Olave. If he's going to be treated as a running back, and last week's season high 13 expected half PPR points is here to stay, he has like legit upside, especially all the short yardage stuff does mean he has a chance for for a goal line touchdown. It's obviously risky. Like it's Taysom Hill in in 2025. We absolutely know we're signing up with. Does he have legitimate upside that a lot of the other tight ends don't? I think it's kind of true. So, I'm going to read Nick Underhill, see what he has to say about this one. Uh, but Taysom Hill is like an intriguing guy. Maybe you pick him up for now and then we kind of like read the tea leaves a little bit more and then see if we're actually going to start him. But, um, I do think that he's pretty interesting.
Cohlston Loveland, don't know about Roma Dunay and Luther Burden yet, so I'm gonna have to uh circle back there. Uh, without them last week, he didn't have a big game unfortunately. Um, was targeted in the red zone in the end zone, was missed there. Had a reception called back because of a penalty, but was not getting like the manufactured touches I thought he was going to get. So, that was disappointing. A bad read by me, but he was out there for 80% of the snaps. Caleb looks awesome. This is in beautiful California weather uh in the Bay Area against the 49ers who are just really bad on defense right now. Super high team total. So, Cohlston Loveland, I still believe in you. Uh, he's a tight end seven since week nine as well.
Dalton Schultz, he's been playing better than this, a lot better. Tight end seven on tight end six usage this month. Basically a full-time route runner. Lots of scrambled drill receptions for Dalton Schultz. Including in the end zone for a couple times here. Harder part, the Chargers. You got uh Dion Henley, Derwin James at linebacker, safety, super low team total. So, moved him down.
Colby Parkinson famously busted this last week here, but at the same time ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks. He ran a route on four of seven red zone dropbacks as well. He's 6'6. The Rams are projected for 29 points. They had the highest three tight end usage of the season last week. No Davante Adams. They're uh the second highest team using tight ends in the receiving game this month. He's a tight end eight on tight end 11 usage this month even with last week's dud. Hoping for a touchdown. That's the reality with Colby Parkinson. The Rams do score a lot of touchdowns.
Darren Waller's kind of the opposite. We're hoping for a bunch of receptions because you're playing for the Dolphins with Quinn Ewers. Uh, he only ran a route on 59% of the dropbacks last week. Uh, we did get a kind of just broken play toss up to Darren Waller uh which was kind of nice but for the most part part-time player in a on a team projected for not that many points slightly interesting but nothing too crazy.
Mike Gesicki part-time player. Taysom Hill is back, but the Bengals are projected for 30 points. If you want to take a touchdown flyer, I get it. Same thing with AJ Barner. Uh, Seahawks projected for over 25 and a half points. He's a tight end 18 usage this month. Uh, Elijah Mitchell has been banged up. Uh, I get it there.
Dalton Kincaid season low in usage 52% routes uh last week. Uh, but he's been very good when healthy and the Bills are obviously very good. Uh, Terrance Ferguson is a rookie attached to the Rams offense. Kind of the the tight end that could run the fastest down the seam. Uh, projected for a bunch of points. You can throw a dart there. Same thing with Dawson Knox.
So, that's probably the most time we spend on the tight ends out there. That's what you get with me on a beautiful Tuesday morning. Uh, reminder, underdognetwork.com. Read. Good for your brain. No scrolling these short form stuff. Bad for your brain. Read underdognetwork.com for more updates. We will get uh injury news. We will get weather news. I will come back after Christmas, during Christmas, before Christmas for all your guys' fantasy football final needs. Good luck to you guys out there. We'll be back tomorrow. Wide receivers, quarterbacks combined. Uh, merry Christmas if I don't see you guys for that one. That's too much creamer in that coffee. It's nasty, especially when it's 44 minutes old. Not good.