Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Sunday, November 30th brief, it is 10:35 AM. Sorry for the delay, it's Sunday. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We will also look at the close, uh, the monthly close, because I think it could be interesting. We will look at that right away, in fact. Uh, in fact, what we did on the monthly close is simply that we came back to seek the FVG that we had just here. So it is still active just here, but we still have a piece to come and take below. We closed within that. So ideally, we would still need to reject this zone. That could be interesting. But in any case, for now, this candle is a bit bearish, isn't it? What we see is that it is globally bearish. It's not necessarily super super to see this kind of thing, but that doesn't prevent us from making a bullish candle afterwards to swallow this wick and close this FVG that we will create up to 102,000 dollars. So that's rather interesting. If we switch to H1, so just here, we look and we see, so I had drawn this for you yesterday. Uh, so the idea was to come and take the liquidity that we had in this zone. We had a lot of liquidity, so that's currently done. We see that we front-ran the zone. It was therefore an H1 FVG that we have to take just here. So this, hop, I'll put it back here. Uh, so we had this FVG. So we see that it was an FVG that had no impact when we went there, and therefore when we return there, it logically serves as resistance. So it could be really interesting to repump the zone. So between 91,773 and 91,640. Knowing that we still have a little bit of liquidation to come and take in this zone to then have a rejection. Now we are still bullish in H4, so we can start from there. Simply, we have to tell ourselves one thing, and that is that if we are to retrace into this FVG, it is the perfect zone to do so. And we could very well come and seek the FVG that is located between 87,600 and 89,462. So the RR is rather good if we were to short this zone, since targeting a short just here to then target this zone, for example, 50% of this FVG around 88,500, gives an RR of 2. Now, the entry of this FVG, well, the RR is not enormous either. We would be at an RR of 1.68. So that's why I'm questioning whether to take it or not. So either wait for a low time frame setup in this zone once we have a wick in it to then simply bring the stop closer above the day's high. So we will have to see that. But in any case, for now, it doesn't necessarily make me want to take it. The RR is not necessarily satisfactory. But the plan could be good to top in this zone to then come and seek the FVG that we have just here. But we will look according to the data. Regarding economic news, this week, we will have quite a few. We will have the Manufacturing PMI at 3:45 PM on Monday. We will also have the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 4 PM on Monday. We will have a speech from Powell at 2 AM on Tuesday, as well as the JOLTS report, the job openings. As a reminder, we did not have the news last month, and therefore this news is highly anticipated. So we will have to be attentive at 4 PM on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we will also have the Services PMI for November, the Manufacturing PMI for November as well. Uh, and we will have a speech from the Fed at 4:30 PM. We will also have, and this is the most important news of the week, on Friday the Core PCE, which has a direct impact on inflation figures and therefore on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. Regarding crypto bubbles, what we see is that we have green on some altcoins. We notably have Tel, QNT, Rain, uh, uh, and that's about it, in terms of what's exploding. We see that yesterday M was exploding at +20%, currently it is at -11%. So clearly, you must not, clearly do not think that everything is going to the moon. Clearly, M has decided to retrace. Uh, regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that we have a little bit of funding that, of open interest that is starting to rise again. So these are currently shorts that are opening, and we see it clearly here. So we have an increase in open interest just here with a decrease in funding. Which means that here, shorts have opened. And therefore, it's not necessarily ideal to short now. We could go higher because, consequently, the shorts that are entering now, their stop losses are just above this zone, and so that's rather interesting for the future if we really want to have an up on Bitcoin. So that's pretty cool. Uh, otherwise, what we see is that we don't have much in terms of open interest. Yesterday we had some longs that entered here, but it's really not that significant either. So we had an increase in open interest with an increase in funding here. So here, longs opened. So consequently, we have liquidations below. Regarding liquidations, what we see is that we have a cluster to come and take around 91,667 dollars, but the bulk of the work is still at 89,767, which coincides with the zone I told you about in the H4 FVG. If we look on a monthly basis, however, we have a lot of liquidation to seek above. And if we reach around 112,000 dollars, 111,700 dollars, we would liquidate for nearly 5 billion dollars. And if we come just below to seek the H4 FVG, we would be around 800 million dollars in liquidation. So it's not impossible to do that to then come and seek the liquidations above. But in any case, we will have to be careful. There are still levels before 112,000. Already, there are 98,000 dollars, we would have 2 billion in liquidation if we reach them. And that will be the potential reversal zone in which we will have to be very careful because it is a key zone, which if it holds, we can go much lower, even go around 72,000 dollars. If we look at what the Whales are doing, the Whales have sold this movement, so they are not buyers of this range at all. And that's not necessarily something bullish. Generally, Whales are precursors of future movements, and here, we clearly see that it is retail investors who are buying this movement with micro-whales buying this movement on a Sunday. So clearly, it's not necessarily the most bullish thing to see in the markets. So technically, it's quite complicated. I will not short personally, given that shorts have entered at the same time. So that means that liquidations are being placed just above. As a reminder, we still have an equal high to take here. Tops rarely form with an equal high. Generally, we go much higher. We come to take at least the liquidity from the clusters that are just here. So the liquidity from the cluster is between 97,000 and 98,700. So logically, if we have a dump now that is effective and that comes into this FVG, personally, I would open a long to target this zone of 98,000 dollars because the RR can be really good. We would be on something like that. So simply to enter, we will have to be quick because we can very well just wick inside and at the very beginning of the FVG, but we can also fill it entirely. So that really depends on you regarding the RR you want and your entry greediness. But personally, I will place myself at the entry, I think, with a stop just below to then target the liquidations that are around 98,000 dollars. That would give an RR of 2.5 if we come to seek this zone. However, of course, if we enter much lower in this FVG, the RR increases significantly. If we are below, at the bottom of the FVG, we would be at almost an R of 6. So, well, I will rather, in my opinion, enter at 50% of the FVG and we will see if I get filled and if I don't get filled, I will enter market. So I will set alerts there to be sure if, if I see that we are going there, I will enter market. So I will set some alerts there. So, well, we are rather on a bullish plan currently, even if we can dump in the short term, I think we can have this short-term dump, but it is also probable that we will do something like this in which we come to seek this liquidity. And there, the problem would be that we have not liquidated below. So we could very well, if we have a rejection following the taking of these stars, of these equal highs, pardon, have this rejection, and then we have no certainty of a rebound because the liquidations will have been taken. So we could very well have a fake rebound to then come and seek much lower. So we will have to be careful about that. But the plan I favor currently is this one, in which we come to seek 91,700, we dump to 88,500 to then come and seek 98,000. So 98,000 dollars, and that would be really interesting. So currently, there is nothing to do. We will wait for tonight, we will see what happens, and otherwise it will be tomorrow at the US opening. Well, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.