Transcription
What's up guys? Maine here with a very quick Christmas week update. There's not a lot to update you guys on.
On the low time frame, we are still just chopping around in this range. Okay, so low time frame, nothing's really changed. I'm not interested in taking a trade right at the mid-range. If I'm going to enter a trade, I need some sort of clear setup. So, maybe it's a move above the range high. Maybe it's a move down below this row which low, excuse me, which is in the discount of the range or below the range low. Those are the areas where I'd be interested in looking for trades.
Alternatively, um if we take Monday's range here, short short term, we could be looking for a trade um above or below Monday's high. So, if we get some sort of move above and a rejection, a move below and a reclaim, that might be a short-term trade for this week.
But it's also Christmas. And guys, the price action is kind of crappy. You do not have to trade when price are when price action looks like Bart Simpson. Bart Simpson, inverted Bart Simpson. Here's another Bart Simpson over and over and over again. You do not have to trade uh when PA looks like this. You can sit on your hands. You can wait. You can go and drink some eggnog, hang out with your family, and be the racist uncle that I know you can be at uh those holiday dinners. Okay? So, you don't have to trade this.
I'm updating you guys because I am going to stay consistent with the YouTube videos more than anything. Not so much because there's really that much to discuss. Our high time frame plan has not changed. I'll go through it again very quickly here. I'm of the belief that this price action is some sort of bottom that we are forming here. Similar to what we did here, I think this price action leads to a move higher. Okay, similar to what we did here.
The question is, are we going to break out from here? Are we going to have one more move down below the low and then go higher? That's question number one. Question number two is once this resolves, how high does it go? Does it bounce up to here and then we're dead? or does it potentially have the ability to bounce to new all-time highs?
I think the idea of a new all-time high move is very much resting upon the idea of new liquidity coming into the market. It's a five-year cycle. All of that fun stuff. QE is going to start. Stocks are going to go up forever. Trump is never going to let the market go down. That's the narrative juice uh that we need to see as price eventually starts to rally to really get an idea of how high this thing might go. But there is a very strong possibility that any sort of rally that comes out of here. I think again 80 70 to 80% leads to a lower high. And this bounce is just an opportunity for us to exit our spot above 100K ideally and then we will look to long you know 6 months to a year from now uh when this thing actually bottoms.
Sentiment is still horrible here. I think this is very common. Price is way off the high. That coupled with the fact that we've basically been chopping sideways for a month. People on Twitter are decimated. Crypto traders are talking about stocks. They're writing threads about how it's oh so over. So we'll wait and see. I'm still giving us an outside shot uh of new all-time highs, but again, very minuscule.
Other than that, guys, I don't have much exciting to talk about. Stocks are continuing to push higher. I would like to see this be the low here. If this is going to be the low, what do I need to see? Well, I need to see a fresh high. And if we're able to break above these highs, I would look take a long on this kind of SR flip. And that would give us confirmation that this low is in and we're going to be making our next leg up into the 7,000s, which I believe pretty high odds are the final leg of this cycle.
This very much looks like a blow off the top here in stocks. And I'm hoping we have a little bit more juice in the tank for one more leg higher that can drag Bitcoin out of the depth of [ __ ] Hades that it's been in basically since uh you know late October, early November where it's just completely disassociated from the stock market which has gone up and uh you know gold and silver gold and silver also still very much in a blowoff the top type of scenario here. Another new all high all-time high on gold. another new all-time high on silver. I think gold could go to 5,000 before this [ __ ] thing's done. I know that seems crazy, but we just had a huge parabolic leg and then a multimonth consolidation, which we're now breaking out of. This can go a lot higher, but these charts are indicative to me of uh kind of the end of cycle type of price action that I'm expecting on these, but I was also expecting Bitcoin to participate in as well, and it's just not yet.
Other than that, guys, you know, the Bank of Japan raised their rates 75 basis points. Everyone was jerking off over the yen carry trade unwinding. It hasn't happened yet. uh we haven't seen uh that yen strength um manifest in uh this chart rolling over yet, right? Still too early to tell. This absolutely could roll over, which would, you know, be indicative of that yen strength from the trade unwinding. We would then also expect to see equities roll over. I think they look pretty good right now, but until we make a new high, this low isn't confirmed. we could still come down, trade below this low before going back up. So, it's still too early to just like say, hey, the low's in on this. The yen carry trade isn't unwinding. But for now, it doesn't look like it's playing out that way.
The VIX hasn't moved, right? The VIX, we would expect a spike if the yen carry trade was unwinding. We'd expect risk assets to roll over. We'd expect USD JPY to roll over. None of those things have happened yet. So, I'm still hoping uh and praying uh and whatever else manifesting woo woo uh woo woo law of attractioning a rally here on Bitcoin. It's just a matter of time. Just patience here. I know it sucks. I know it's boring.
If we run below here, maybe that's your trade. If we run below here, maybe that's your trade. If we run above here, maybe there's a short on the low time frame. High time frame. I'm still holding on to that spot. All right, guys. I don't really have much else to update you on. Um, you know, maybe if you want to let me know in the description some other stuff you might like me to comment on while Bitcoin is just literally going sideways because we just have to be patient right now. No different than here. It took literally two months to carve out a bottom. This could take two months as well. We're a month into it right now. So, let's wait and see what happens.
Otherwise, I'm going to be chilling. I hope you guys are all going to take some time away from the charts. enjoy time with your friends and your family over the holidays. All right, guys. So, if you want to see anything else, let me know in the description below. Um, otherwise, I'll just keep doing these quick updates over the next few weeks, and then hopefully once the new year uh starts, everyone's back at their desks. Uh, the price action gets a little bit cleaner, we start getting some moves, and uh we can finally get some uh resolution as to what's going to happen here in crypto, in Bitcoin.
All right. If you want to support me, tradermain.com has all of my stuff. You want to join the haven, learn to trade from me, LMA, UBS, Pure, Krillin, uh, uh, CBS. Uh, all that info is there. The IMG indicators there. And if you want to use breakout, trade with my money instead of yours. Use code Maine for a discount. Biggest discount available for any breakout code. It's mine, code Maine. So, make sure you use that. All right, guys. I hope you all have a fantastic day. And if I don't talk to you before Christmas, merry Christmas. Talk to you soon.