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All right, hello and welcome to Campbell Finance. I'm your boy Campbell, and today I wanted to quickly touch—I don't know why I'm laughing. I think it's the memes. Um, today I wanted to quickly build on yesterday's hyperwave a little bit. There's a couple of nuances or details that I left out yesterday, and I think they're important. So, we'll just quickly touch on those.
I want to quickly touch on the VIX as well, and then we're going to kind of look at the bull and the bear case for Bitcoin because I still maintain that short-term, we're going a lot, lot, lot higher for the price of Bitcoin. But I also maintain that we are going to be topped sooner than we think. So, I'm just going to show you a few things that, to me, are warning signs, and you can take it or leave it. Okay? Again, as always, I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm just simply pointing at stuff as I always do and saying, based on my experience in the markets, some of these things are becoming quite concerning to me.
So, first of all, to build on this hyperwave thing. Okay, we know, as I said yesterday in the video, that hyperwaves undergo these four phases. Okay? One is a range, then it enters two, then it enters three, and then four goes near vertical. So, the detail I left out yesterday was that what we can expect is that each one of these phases, okay, has the same amount of price gains in half of the time. Okay? So that's a detail I left out yesterday. I thought I'd share that with you.
And then, so if I use this principle and apply it to Bitcoin, what that tells us is, because the gains from here to here were about 186%, we would expect, in half of the time, to see all of the gains repeat if this is truly a hyperwave and not just a parabolic blow-off top. And that gives us around 175k by February. So, not a caller prediction, just saying objectively speaking, if this is a true hyperwave, if it qualifies as a hyperwave, then we should be expecting around 175k by February. So that's a detail I left out yesterday. Like I said, each one of these phases, you expect the same amount of percentage gains in half of the time.
The next thing was the return to phase one. So, a unique quality of a hyperwave is after we get this one, two, three, and four, we then get five, six, and seven, with here's the kicker: seven returning to phase one as a minimum, and often times undercutting it. Now, in yesterday's video, I showed that gold had undergone a hyperwave, and I then followed that up by saying that Bitcoin is the only asset during this phase seven that did not make it all the way back to phase one. And many of you eagle-eyed viewers pointed out that actually, the example I showed with gold never made it to phase one either.
But I left out an important detail yesterday, and that detail is: okay, phase seven always returns to phase one unless it enters immediately thereafter a brand new hyperwave. So that's why gold didn't return to phase one is because immediately afterwards, it entered a hyperwave. Thus, Bitcoin is still the only asset that never actually made it to phase one. Again, and the speculation is because of the halving, or perhaps because of the miners defending the network. Bitcoin, after the 2017 bull run, right after its hyperwave, which does indeed qualify as a hyperwave, it's finished at about 3K when phase one was 1K, and it then went on to produce a parabola. But that parabola did not qualify as a hyperwave. Remember, all hyperwaves are bubbles, but not all bubbles are hyperwaves. So, Bitcoin remains the exception. But yes, to the people that were asking, well, how come gold didn't return to phase one? That's because it entered a hyperwave immediately after. So that's another important detail that I left out yesterday, and I think we ought to build on yesterday's video with.
And then the third thing I wanted to bring up is unique versus discretionary. Okay? So, hyperwaves are very, very, very unique. And they're so unique that Jensx analyzed 75,000 charts over 75,000 and only found about 400 that conform to a hyperwave. Okay? So they're very, very, very rare. And yesterday, I saw a lot of people saying things like, "Every cycle, some guy makes up a term, right?" Or, "This is just a blow-off top. It's just another way of describing a parabola." I also saw people saying things like, "It's just another way of describing a fifth wave." Okay? Now, you can choose to believe that if you want, but you are completely missing the point.
So, with my three angles of attack, there is a highly discretionary element to this, and it's probably best illustrated on this chart right here. Okay? So, for a long time, we were working with this as the second angle, and this took me out of the trade and enabled me to get flat before the whole Yen carry trade unwind occurred. Okay? Now, the whole point of my three angles and a discretionary system is I try not to move it. I try not to move the goalposts. I try not to cheat the system at all. Okay? That's why I prefer this versus a parabolic curve, because parabolic curves, you can keep sort of twitching and moving around. But I had to handle this as a discretionary trader because at some point, if I didn't choose to use this as the second angle and say, "Okay, this is the new area the market is respecting," then I wouldn't have been able to get back in and continue to ride this trend higher. Okay? I would have been taken out here and missed all of the gains thereafter.
So, when I say unique versus discretionary, this is why hyperwaves for me are so exciting. Okay? Discretionary, like I said, relies on my experience. It relies on me being able to be open to pivoting to new data as it occurs, and it requires me to have a certain knowledge and experience and skill set to be able to stay on top of the trade, right? To stay on the right side of the market. But the reason hyperwaves are so powerful is when they do show up, when we can actually qualify a setup as a hyperwave, we have very, very strict rules. So to say things like, "Well, it's just another way of describing a parabola or a bubble," it's not. Remember, all hyperwaves are bubbles, but not all bubbles are hyperwaves. Like I said, there's no discretionary element to a hyperwave. That's why they're so rare. That's why they're so powerful.
If this is indeed a real hyperwave, and I believe it is, okay, then the moment any one of these angles is violated on a weekly closing basis, we can have 100% certainty that the top is in. Okay? Now, that is not true of my three angles of attack. If I go over here, okay, to the Bitcoin chart, we've been using this one in red as the bottom. Okay? That's the first angle. Second angle is here. And I believe once we've found the next daily cycle low, you will see camel set wherever it forms the third and final blow-off top angle. But there could indeed be times where I choose to somewhat disrespect this system if I believe that the market has just not quite worked out the true area of support and resistance. Right? If I believe that I can give this thing a bit of wiggle room in exchange for seeing higher prices, then you will see me do that. Okay? And I've done that plenty of times before. Like I said, with the S&P 500, that's how we ended up getting out before the unwind and then getting back in so that we didn't miss this. So I always reserve the right to be a little bit discretionary based on my experience and my skill set.
But then, like I said, a million times, this is why hyperwaves are so powerful. There is no bending the rules here. Okay? If this is a true hyperwave, the moment a weekly candle closes below any of these angles, it could be this one, or it could be the fourth. Okay? If we close a weekly candle below the third angle, it tells us with 100% certainty we're not getting a fourth. Okay? We're not getting one. And if we break down at any point, okay, even if we don't reach target for the fourth angle, any weekly candle close below that tells us with 100% certainty we have seen the top.
Now, do you realize how rare it is to be able to say 100% certainty in markets? Right? We can almost never, ever, ever say that. So that's why hyperwaves are very, very powerful. That's why they're very, very rare. And that's why I'm so excited about this, because this is essentially a cheat code for the market. If it is to play out, okay, if this is to truly confirm, roughly approximating my yellow squiggle, like I suggest, okay, it's daily cycle low and then into that fourth wave, then we have the most binary exit system ever. We can tune out all the noise, tune out all the narrative, and just say, the moment a weekly candle closes below that red upward sloping fourth angle, then we have a 100% certain sell signal that we have seen the top of the market. Okay? That is so, so powerful and so, so different to a normal parabolic blow-off top or to three angles of attack that I was planning on using before. Okay? Like I said, that this is—this is why this is such an exciting setup. This is why the people that are saying things like, "Well, you're just making up terms." Right? I—I didn't make it up. Okay? This is—there's extensive work on this. Tyler Jensx has written a whole book. You can go and get that. It's called Hyperwave Theory by Tyler Jensx. I didn't shout out Socrates yesterday either, but he did extensive work on this too. And again, like, this is—this is not up for debate. Okay? This—this isn't like conjecture. And if you're going to be one of these people that just says, "Well, it's a par—it's just another way of describing an Elliot wave or it's another way of describing a blow-off top," right? Well, on your head be it. Okay? That's—that's your prerogative. But like I said, objectively speaking, incredibly powerful pattern. There is no discretionary element to this. And the moment any one of these trend lines breaks down on a weekly candle closing basis, that's it. Top is in. Okay? Not up for debate. No discussion. No super cycle. No Sailor permanent beard. No US strategic reserve. Okay? None of that matters if we lose this trend line on a weekly closing candle basis. So take that or leave it. I don't mind. Entirely up to you.
And by no means should you take what I say for gospel. You should, of course, go and get the Tyler Jensx Hyperwave Theory book. You should read it. You should look at all the prior examples that he shows in there. You should go and research this for yourself and figure out if there's any merit to what I'm saying. Okay? But what you shouldn't do, in my humble opinion, is just lump me with some, you know, super cycle brush like, "Oh, this is just another one of those guys on the internet that's calling for something made up." Right? That's not what this is. And again, that's entirely your prerogative. Do with this information what you will.
So that's us caught up on hyperwaves. The next thing I want to talk about is the VIX. Okay? I think the stock market is on its way to a daily cycle low. You can see my arrow here tells me we got bull until the 26th, right? So into the end of the month, we should see a bit of a daily cycle low. Then I think we've probably got one final squeeze into what I think will be a top. But I'm going to save that content for another day.
What's super interesting about this is whilst we've got potentially a daily cycle low unfolding, notice how the VIX, okay, is still getting crushed. Now, it's VIX Crush Friday. If you know, you know. If you don't know, there's a meme where they crush the VIX every Friday. Okay? But eventually, I believe we are going to be at a very, very suppressed level somewhere between these two green lines, and I believe that is going to be one of the trades of the decade when we look back in hindsight. So, at the moment, I'm in no rush to get in here, although I am keeping a very, very close eye on this. I know a lot of the members can't wait for this setup, right? And I'm going to do a members video tomorrow, as always, and I'll go over this in full detail for you guys. But remember, you know, this thing is slowly compressing, and any time in here, okay, for me, is a huge signal that the market is getting ready to have experienced, at a minimum, a major correction. Okay? And we saw this spike to 66 on the Yen carry trade unwind, which, in the scheme of things, okay, is barely visible, right? So if it did 66 there, I really think once this, you know, this is what I think is coming: this, and then that's it. That's what I think. And if I'm right, then you better believe this VIX is going to moon from here.
So, anyway, for the people asking for a VIX update, there it is. Okay? So I am—I haven't forgotten about it. I'm just taking my time, right? I'm taking my time. And for anyone that's been following me for any length of time at all, you know that's what I do. I take my time. I think the members have seen this this week. There was lots of gaps up, lots of questions, "Can we long this? Can we long that? Crypto, stock?" And I said, "Look, I got my positions. I'm sitting back." And since then, it looks like an awful lot of them have come back either for retests or for gap fills. Okay? And there's another seven or eight as well that we cover in the member section. And now I'm in a position of power. Wait for some cycle lows to show up, or half lows, or retests and resumptions. And I think next week, me and the members can continue to conquer those.
Bitcoin continues to do Bitcoin things. Okay? It looks a lot to me like something like this is occurring. And notice that gives us, you know, significantly higher prices. This is over 150k. If we get something like this, hyperwave, as I said, suggests around 175k by February. But whilst I'm calling for much higher prices and a continuation of this lockout move, by the way, this would be the cycle low that lines up early January. I really don't think there's much time between here and the top. Okay? And now, a lot of people have a problem with that. A lot of people like to remind me that I was calling for this top to occur earlier in the cycle, and it took longer than expected. Yes, that's correct. That's absolutely right. I was expecting this thing to play out sooner rather than later. But ultimately, remember, the whole concern about an early top here is if we have an earlier top, we have to spend more time in a bear market because that 2026 cycle low is fixed. The four-year cycle low is in the end of 2026. That's—that's not going to move. So if we top here or sooner than expected, that means we've got more than 12 months in a bear market decline. And that is still true even if this whole yellow squiggle occurred from here like I was originally expecting. If that was to have happened, then we would have had to spend over two years in a bear market. Okay? Now, happy days, we didn't get that. Okay? We've got more time to move higher.
But remember, it's not about being able to say, "I told you so. I picked the month." It's about number one, selling the top, okay, or as close to it as humanly possible. And number two, it's about then reallocating that capital at an ultra-high probability setup in 2026. And something you should probably keep in mind is, if this is to play out, and of course, it's to be determined, but if it is to play out, then all the way through every single one of these dips, people are going to be screaming, "Buy the dip! This is coming! Buy the dip! This is coming! Buy the dip! This is coming! US strategic reserve, bro! A million Bitcoin for Sailor, bro!" There's going to be all these narratives. But cycle theory says once this has played out, then we've got a long, long time to draw this bear market out. Okay?
So, notice the theme here. The theme here is super, super, uber bullish. Okay? But not for much longer in terms of months or weeks. Okay? I still think by Q1 of 2025, we are going to have seen the top. Now, let's be really clear. I am, as always, hoping to be invalidated about this. Okay? Because no one would want this all the way up to October more than me. If we get to October and we still haven't seen any top, we can just blindly sell and know from a four-year cycle perspective that that's it. Right? We—we nailed the top pretty much. So nobody wants the October ultra—translated 12-month bear market cycle more than me. Everyone seems to think that for some reason, I am trying to avoid just saying, "Yeah, Bitcoin is going to do normal cycle stuff." But from all of my analysis and assessment, I don't think that's the most likely outcome. And that's all I do. I present what I think is the most likely outcome, which for me at the moment is this. Okay? An extended bear market. Again, happy to be wrong. And if we're—if we are wrong on that, okay, then we'll stay long and strong and we'll make even more money. But I am extremely nervous here. And I think if you've got a lot of experience in markets, you've probably started to notice a couple of things. So I'm going to show you those now.
Some of the reason I am nervous. Okay. I—I think this is the Hawk to a girl. I'm not 100% sure. After I saw Michael Sailor speak at the Bitcoin conference, I have decided to start putting some money into crypto. And I just want to say, "Oh my God, thank you so much, Mr. Sailor." So, so you might think that's nothing. I think that's something. Okay? I think this is exactly the sort of thing you would expect to see as we approach tops. Now, again, it doesn't mean we can't go a lot higher. I don't know how many more times I've got to say it. Okay? We're probably going a lot higher in terms of price. But again, this gives us a top of around February if this is to play out, if the hyperwave is for real. And then we'll be able to look back and say, "Well, the Hawk T girl, she was bullish weeks before the top occurred." Right? That's just one thing I'm pointing at.
Something else that I think will be really obvious in hindsight is the Department of Government Efficiency. Okay? This is an official government verified check mark. The handle at Doge. Like, I know Elon likes to play, okay, and make some jokes and all of this kind of stuff. I think he also recently put a banana decal or sticker or something on a rocket and sent the banana own thing to the moon. Okay? These are the kind of things that you tend to see as we approach tops. Again, if something like this is to play out, okay, and then we enter a bear market, we'll be able to look back in hindsight and say, "Well, yeah, Hawk T a girl came out. Okay? We had Doge launch." Remember, all it was either in here or in here, Elon on Saturday Night Live and started talking about Bitcoin, right? That's—that's what we saw in here, talking about crypto and Bitcoin and Dogecoin. And of course, it marked the top in hindsight. Super obvious. Yeah, that's the stage of euphoria and greed we got to. We had Elon going on Saturday Night Live to talk about cryptocurrency. And again, you know, if something like this is to play out, we'll be able to look back and say, "Hawk two ago became bullish right here, started shouting out Michael Sailor." Now, there's a good chance she got paid to say that by some people with fat Bitcoin bags or something. Who knows, right? And maybe it isn't anything. Maybe we continue to run until October. But I think when you combine that with the government Department of Efficiency, you also have Coinbase, which has reached number one in the finance app store in the top 10 as of yesterday for all apps. Okay? These are the kind of things that once more happen as we approach tops. Shout out Bitcoin Data 21. This is back from the 12th of November. Okay? This thing is climbing and climbing and climbing. Now, to me, I think it speaks to being about here, okay, where we saw a big spike, then a bit of a correction, bit of a correction, and then we go off onto that final high. And again, if I go back here, that would all kind of make sense. Okay? We've reached number one. We have a bit of a correction into a cycle low, and then we go off to that all-time high. All through here, we see Coinbase sustained in the top one to five apps for the entire leg. Okay? We see even more of these type of videos come out, even more jokes about how Doge is going to change the world or whatever else. Okay? And then I think that sets us up nicely for, as I've been saying, an extended bear market decline. The first true secular bear market for Bitcoin, rather than a bear market within the context of a macro uptrend. This will be the first true secular bear market that spans over 12 months. And again, I think I'll be able to look back at this and say, "Yeah, it kind of made a lot of sense." Okay?
So, I know people just want me to come out here and say, "It's going to a million. Right? I've never been more bullish. I'm so bullish it hurts." I know people just want to hear that. Okay? I know people want me to come here and say, "Alt coins are going to do a 10X. I just started aping this and that and the other." I know that's what you want. Okay? But hopefully, you can understand and respect. Like, I'm a trader. This is what I do, right? I—I come on, I hit record, and I just show you what I'm thinking. I just speak it instead of think it in my head, I just speak it out loud. I constantly am trying new ideas out. I'm constantly trying to make sure I can stay on the right side of the trade, consider all possible outcomes. And again, you know, super, super bullish, but not for very long. And again, I think it makes a lot of sense in hindsight.
Now, something else I think we ought to cover. Shout out to my brother OV Crypto here. Monthly RSI just started to enter the banana zone. I hate that term, but it is what it is. Okay? Same here and here, and it led to big parabolic expansions for Bitcoin. So if we saw something like this, wouldn't be super surprising. It'd be quite obvious in hindsight. Again, weekly RSI is a very similar deal. Okay? Currently overbought, but can remain overbought for a long time. Usually coincides with expansive moves for Bitcoin. So all of this speaks to there being more upside, but not for a great deal longer in terms of time. Okay? Look how long this whole thing lasts. Okay? A matter of weeks. Look how long this whole thing lasts. A matter of weeks. If this thing is to run till February or March, okay, then that would just be normal and to be expected based on what the charts are telling us.
We also have the P Cycle top indicator. A big strong move here from Bitcoin would drag this 111 EMA up and trigger a cross, which historically has seen the tops come in within a few weeks. So again, little bit of space. Okay? Note the theme: space to go higher, but not for a great deal longer. MVRV Head Score. Okay? Again, look at the yellow space to go higher up into the red zone, which coincided with prior tops. But again, if we draw our eyes to this level right here, how long did it take to go from here to here? Not very long. How long did it take to go from here to here? Not very long. What about here to here? Okay? You get the idea. Same deal with the P multiple. Usually hits about this red zone at the bottom, tends to make lower highs every time. Okay? Roughly speaking, we get something like this, I guess. And again, tells us that there's space, but not for a great deal longer. Note the LMD at the bottom. Okay? Again, has been making lower highs, and every time it's touched the trend line, that has marked the top on a weekly time frame. So allows us more space to the upside, not for much longer in terms of time. Same deal for terminal price. Every time we touch you, usually marks the top, and that currently is only at 126k. Okay? Now, we have in the past blown through it. So again, could be a lot more space for more upside. But in terms of time, getting pretty close. Same thereal with Nole. Okay? Notice when the blue gets up to this red zone, tends to mark tops, and we're getting close. Right? We're getting close. So the directional indicator plus, again, tends to make lower highs and bounce off of the trend line as resistance. First time for everything. Maybe we see breakout, retest, resumption. Or maybe, maybe again, we are close. Another nice on-chain metric that once more tends to make lower highs is the May Muli. Okay? If we draw a trend line here, seems like we're breaking out, at least to my eyeball. Again, speaks to being able to move higher. And the CBBI, which is this line at the bottom, which aggregates about nine, I think it is, uh, on-chain metrics. This is starting to creep up again. Now, usually, once we get above 95, we should start looking for exits from the market. And we reached 76 as of a couple of days ago, which would put us somewhere in this neighborhood. So again, little bit of space above. Okay? Tells us we can certainly see much higher Bitcoin prices. But once more, okay, look how long it takes to go from this kind of level here to the top. Not very long. Not very long. Not very long, right? This is just how I see it at the moment. How I see it at the moment is we've got higher, but not for much longer.
So, as ever, we'll keep taking it one day at a time. We already did the VIX. We already kind of did the stock market. Long and strong. I think we're just getting a pullback into a cycle low, and then we can start to move on up. I'm really—it's really interesting to me that the VIX is getting compressed, okay? Because if we're going to pull back, we should expect this thing to spike. So if this forms a lower low, if it diverges, that to me confirms that we're even closer to the tops.
Oil, of course, not looking at all inflationary or like we are cutting into economic expansion here. In fact, it's a complete opposite. So again, makes a lot of sense down into those cycle lows, big kind of deflationary bust moment. That's cool.
Gold should be about to get a counter-bounce out of this cycle low. Okay? We should be looking for something like this down into a weekly cycle low, right in that timing window, and then hopefully what we get is gold doing gold things. So pretty excited about that.
And Bitcoin, I was talking about this a couple of days ago, that what I kind of expect to see is some kind of pennant or flag formation. Now, the day I posted, the price just kind of shot up, so I wasn't really expecting that. But I think ultimately, it's still going to resolve to roughly speaking the same shape. I think we're still going to kind of chop around in here, make a quarter cycle low on Tuesday, and then we're going to see a resumption of the uptrend, something like that. So no real changes.
And the dollar in the neighborhood to see a left translated cycle. So if there's any merit at all to the bear case for the Dixie, then this should be the top today, or perhaps on Monday or Tuesday at the latest. But if we get out to Wednesday, Thursday, then we're going to form a right translated daily cycle, and this yellow squiggle of mine is very much in play. Okay? Which, of course, speaks to deflation, and is not the kind of thing you should ignore, in my humble opinion. Okay? Especially when stock markets are going parabolic, especially when we've got hyperwaves all over the place, and we know the outcome of those.
So absolutely wild times. As always, I'm your boy Campbell. Make sure you come back for the weekend's deep dive tomorrow. Of course, if you're a Level 3 member, look out for the members' any video, because I think we've got some nice crypto-related equity plays to get behind early next week. Other than that, I hope you have a fantastic weekend. I'm your boy Campbell. Big love. Cheers. Bye.
Camet, he's the man to see, rocking the markets with his contrarian stream. Trades like a pro, no fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes, indeed. Camel Finance got the lock. Its key taking aies on a bumpy ride, casting those emo.