Transcription
Hello everyone, I hope you are doing well. We are meeting today for a crypto market update, and today we will cover Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Pump.fun. And before anything else, please remember to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. It's very important for its development. Remember to like the videos and to give me feedback in the comments if you wish. Let's start.
For Bitcoin, yesterday, we stopped, we were really at the bottom of our daily tunnel, and we were really on a knife's edge on the support. We could have had a trend reversal here. That's not what happened. That is to say, we continued our bearish trend which had been initiated since October 27th, and we ended up breaking our support level at 107,105,000 to finally retest our level at 100,000. And we see that we briefly went below 100,000 dollars.
It's true that we touched a key level, we touched a round number. 100,000 dollars is a rather symbolic level. Now, is this correction over? It's not certain. That is to say, for the moment, the context is that we remain in a bearish trend. We could have a short-term rebound here, but that doesn't mean we will have a real market reversal because for now, we are in a location that could be interesting, but that's all we have. That is to say, we have no other signs, we have no other structure that allows us to say "Okay, we are mature enough to have a trend reversal and, why not, to reach new highs."
Now, in terms of location in this area, apart from the fact that we came to 100,000 dollars, there isn't much else interesting. And in terms of interesting levels, there are some that are a bit more so, in my opinion. We have this daily fair value gap area here that we have partially filled but which remains partly open and which is located precisely below this wick here. We have stops to be taken here, and we see that on yesterday's movement, in addition to that, we also made a wick. We have an accumulation of stops probably below this level. Below this level here. It's true that this is a level around 97,000 that would be interesting to target.
Next, we have this level, this fair value gap area that we've probably talked about quite a bit, between approximately 92,800 and 85,600, which is, in my opinion, one of the most important areas to mark a higher low in our underlying bullish trend. That is to say, on a large time unit, this would really be the ideal zone to make a bottom. Coming here would probably be catastrophic for many people, but on a large time unit, there would be nothing truly alarming.
In addition, when we look at a Fibonacci retracement from the bottom, what we can see is that our first stop is almost aligned with this fair value gap area at around 84,000. And what happened in this cycle is that each time we made a top, we see that the market retraced each time to our first stop. For example, on the top of January 2025, we see that the movement retraced to the first stop. On that of March 2024, we retraced to the first stop. In fact, it's only here in January 2024 that we didn't retrace to the first stop. We approached it with the correction we had here, but it's true that we didn't come all the way to our first stop.
However, here too, we can see that even on this peak in July 2023, we retraced to our first stop. And even here, in the end, almost all the peaks we made, there is really only one major peak where we didn't retrace to our first stop. Even if I take this level here, we see that we came back to the first stop at a minimum.
Now, it's true that statistically, this has no value. It doesn't mean that because all other times we returned to the first stop, this time we will necessarily return to the first stop. We just need to realize that this level here at 84,000 would make sense for us to return to. And if we do return, it's a level that, in my opinion, at least for me, will be really interesting for positioning.
What is interesting to observe is that in previous cycles, for example, if we take 2017, each time, we also returned to the first stop. If I place myself at the bottom level, we see that with each retracement, we came at least to the first stop. All corrections bottomed out each time at the first stop. Again, it's true that these are not observations with a sufficient sample size to be able to state with 100% certainty that it will happen. But it's just an interesting observation. You shouldn't make it an immutable rule or think that we will necessarily return to the first stop. This is very important because, for example, what happened in 2021, whether I take the bottom from December, or the retest we had on the Covid crash here, each time, we never returned to the first stop.
Precisely, this is a peculiarity of the 2021 cycle, which is that each time we made a top and corrected afterwards, we never retested our first stop. In reality, it was only at this moment, on the April 2021 top, that we crossed our first stop, we went below it. What we saw in 2017 is the same thing we see in this cycle, at least in terms of corrections on Fibonacci retracements. But it's not something that happens all the time. Will it happen again? Again, we'll see.
In any case, what is interesting is that we do have a nice confluence between our imbalance zone plus our first stop on Fibonacci retracements at around 84,000. And in addition to that, obviously, we have a nice confluence with our 3-day tunnel here.
Now, doing a bit of science fiction, let's assume, if we hypothesize that this zone here doesn't hold, that our first stop is broken, then the next zone of interest is naturally this imbalance zone that we haven't fully filled, or even haven't filled at all, which still remains present here at 71,000 to 72,000 dollars. This would mean that the price would come to retest the top of our 2024 range and that we would go below this price structure we made in March 2025. And that's not impossible. That is to say, anyway, all prices are possible. And moreover, we would also have an interesting location here because we would come to our weekly tunnel, so really on a long-term group.
However, obviously, if we break this low here, it could put Bitcoin's bullish trend into question for a while. Obviously, the trend on a very large time unit won't necessarily be called into question, but it's true that if we return to these price levels, we might have to ask ourselves some questions. Now, this doesn't mean that Bitcoin's very, very long-term trend is jeopardized. I know some people think it's impossible, and it's not. That is to say, everything is possible. Now, I'm not saying we're going to return to these price levels anytime soon. Or I'm not saying we're going to return to these price levels. I don't know. I just know that these are interesting zones if and only if we return to them. Because I can determine many zones of interest, even below these price levels, but it doesn't make sense.
Given that for the moment, we are still above 100k. What is interesting to observe is the zones closest to the current price. Now, what we can see in the short term is that for the moment, we have an attempt at a rebound. We see that buyer interest is returning. We stopped making lower lows here. We went back above our 1-minute, we went back above our 5-minute. For now, we are being stopped at the 15-minute. On the short-term trend, for me, breaking the 15-minute is quite important to tell me "Okay, we have a much higher chance of having a much stronger rebound." Because for the moment, the fact that we are stopped at the 15-minute doesn't convince me that we will see higher prices. As long as it doesn't break, it can continue to push the trend downwards. This is indeed an indicator that is quite important in my eyes in the short term.
If we manage to break free from this level at 103,800, the next target that is quite interesting in case of continuation of this rebound is our fair value gap zone that we have here at 105,300 dollars. And then obviously the objective would be to re-enter our daily tunnel which currently acts as resistance.
Now, be careful because given that we are below our 4-hour, we have a medium-term trend that is still oriented downwards. In the same way that, for example, remember in February 2025, we were in this context where our price was below our 4-hour, we had returned to our daily, we had broken our daily, we had re-entered the daily, and for quite some time, our 4-hour held the price down despite having rebounds that were still of a certain amplitude.
Be careful, a rebound doesn't mean we're going straight to the moon. We could very well have a price that returns to our 4-hour here and fails, to then make lower lows. These are scenarios that are entirely possible.
At the pivot points, what we can also observe is that we have broken our quarterly level here, and this level can now act as resistance at 104,624 dollars. And we see that we have our fair value gap zone which is almost in confluence behind it. Furthermore, we have another 4-hour zone that is quite interesting here at around 108,940 dollars.
At the volume profile level, on an annual basis, there's not much more to say since yesterday. The important point is that we have broken our annual point of control at 104,760 dollars. This level can act as resistance. It's true that if we manage to get back above it, it would be an interesting first sign, but it wouldn't do everything. It wouldn't do everything. And another important level in my eyes is the value low at 92,000, which aligns with our fair value gap area. And also be careful on a quarterly basis, we have exited the value. We have our current value low at 104,160 dollars. It is really this entire zone we just talked about that can probably act as resistance. Always the same, if we manage to integrate it, it can be an encouraging sign for the future, but it doesn't do everything.
And otherwise, on a much shorter term, for the current week, we can see that we have quite a bit of positioning that has occurred at 101,350 dollars. These price levels can be defended in the short term.
Now for Ethereum, very quickly for Ethereum against USD, we have a context that is similar to what is happening with Bitcoin, except that Ethereum has corrected a bit more strongly. We see that we have broken our daily tunnel, we have returned to our 3-day. Here, we see that we have bounced in the short term on the 3-day at 3,000 dollars, and we are in the process of filling an entire imbalance zone that we have on the weekly. The location is interesting, but what I wanted to do is especially look at what is happening more precisely with Ethereum against Bitcoin.
When we look at it against Bitcoin, we can see that the rebound we just had at price levels corresponding to the 2019 level, this rebound has tested a major confluence of levels. It has tested our weekly tunnel, a major level in terms of long-term M. It has also tested the area around our first stop from the late 2021 peak. And we have also tested our annual pivot. We have an Ethereum against Bitcoin that has reversed on a triple confluence of locations. And when we look at the overall picture, well, in fact, we have made a higher low in an underlying trend that remains bearish.
So, for me, there are several possibilities here. That is to say, we could have a trend reversal, we could mark a bottom in the current zone. That is to say, the current zone here, we see that we are in a weekly fair value gap zone. It could be interesting to mark a bottom here and continue our trend that we initiated in April 2025. But otherwise, we have price levels that are quite interesting, much lower. We have a weekly fair value gap here at 0.02782, and we have one much lower here at the level when we made our breakout in May 2025 at around 0.027. These are two location zones that are quite interesting, which, if we have a continuation of the correction, will be levels on which it will be necessary to potentially position or reposition.
If we are bullish on Ethereum, we can see that in terms of Fibonacci levels, this fair value gap zone, for example, roughly coincides with the beginning of the reload zone of the movement from the bottom. For me, it would make a lot of sense to come back and work these price levels. Now, will we get there? Well, I don't know, but these are still levels that, in my opinion, should be watched.
Now, in an overall picture, it's true that the failure to break above this confluence of levels might lead us to make new lows on Ethereum against Bitcoin. That is a possibility. Now, as it stands, I don't think so. I rather think that we are currently having a correction to come to these price levels which would be ideal to make a higher low, in the same way that we did here, for example, in March-April 2020. We see that we had established a bottom over a much longer period. We had this movement, then a retracement, then a consolidation phase for several months before resuming an upward trend. Here, we see that we might be doing something similar, even if it doesn't look exactly the same, even if it's not identical. We could have a retracement that allows us to create a much more complete, much healthier long-term structure for a real trend resumption on Ethereum against Bitcoin. That's rather what I think on a much longer time horizon. If I had to commit, I think we would rather be doing that rather than having an Ethereum against Bitcoin that continues to make lower lows. But then, obviously, the future will prove me right or wrong.
To finish, for Ethereum, regarding relative strength, it's true that there's not much to say. We are still underperforming against Bitcoin, against BNB, against the Alts as well, against Total 3 as well. It's true that it's not very pretty at the moment.
And we finish with Pump.fun. Pump is still an interesting token because, unlike the rest of the market, it's a token that is resisting quite well to the current movement. Well, at least, I think so. That is to say, already when we look at the relative strength of Pump, well, we can see that against Bitcoin, well, we are resisting, we are not making lower lows. Against BNB too, we are structuring something interesting. Against the alts, it's the same. Against Total 3, it's the same. That is to say, Pump is resisting compared to the rest of the market. I find that rather interesting. This is the kind of token that I watch quite closely.
Already, what we can see is that during the crash, we recovered all the stop levels below the bottom we had marked in July-August 2025, and then, we see that we had a consolidation phase at this bottom level. We didn't go lower, we didn't re-work much lower price levels. Potentially, we are restructuring a bottom again. This is a possibility given that, well, we are on support, we see that we made a first movement that allowed us to fill an entire imbalance zone. Here, we were rejected, we returned to support again, and now we have an asset that is starting to perform again and which, it must be said, is currently outperforming the rest of the market. I find that this is rather the kind of token on which one should position oneself. I am acting accordingly.
If we anticipate a rebound in the market in general, well, I think the current levels can potentially be interesting levels. Now, it remains risky, obviously. When we put a volume profile on our entire current structure, we can observe that we have our value low at 3829, our value high at 4515, and in my opinion, if we lose the price zone around our value low, we should exit because it would potentially invalidate the structure that is currently being created, and it would mean that we will potentially revisit much lower levels on Pump.
Now, in the short term, what we can also observe on this volume profile is that we are going back above the point of control of our current structure, which is rather encouraging for the future. And obviously, be careful because the value high here can also act as resistance, and we are potentially reaching it quite quickly.
At the level of our moving averages, we can see that we have also recently turned bullish in the short term. We have our 5-minute holding the trend. We see that for the moment, our 1-hour imbalances are respected. We had created this 1-hour fair value gap zone here. We retraced it, we partially filled it. We started again in an upward trend. Now, we are reaching our 1-hour tunnel. Be careful, this could be the end of this trend, or we could simply be marking a high here to retrace, to come and test this 1-hour fair value gap zone that we have here as well, to perhaps start again afterwards. And obviously, one of the important points to pass would be our 4-hour tunnel here at 4562.
At the pivot points, we can observe that we have an important point at 5740. We have our quarterly pivot here which could block the price upwards and acts as resistance. And moreover, this level is also in confluence with a daily fair value gap at exactly the same price level. And otherwise, in case of breaking this level, we could also use Fibonacci retracements to have a location. We would have our RLZ which is between 7412 and 7110, which could obviously be an ideal location. And otherwise, we can also have a very small imbalance zone here, quite close to our ATH at 766. Well, these are levels that are quite far from the current price.
It's true that on Pump, even if it's resisting compared to the rest of the market, in my opinion, it will resist much less if Bitcoin decides to go look for 84,000. You have to be careful about that. It's not because an asset is resisting at time T that it will also resist at T+2, T+3, T+4. And in any case, I find the observation interesting, and the thing is that there are so many altcoins that, in my opinion, at some point, you have to focus only on a few alts that tend to resist a bit more than the rest of the market. And in my opinion, Pump is an asset that, like Hyperliquid, can be part of it. It's the kind of asset I watch because you can't watch hundreds and hundreds of altcoins in this market. It's not possible.
So, I'm done with this analysis. I hope you enjoyed it. Don't hesitate to subscribe to the channel, like the videos, and give me feedback in the comments. I wish you a good end of the day, and I'll see you next time.