Transcription
Donald Trump has a very particular way of speaking about his friends. The NATO summit opened in Ankara in a more than tense context. If the war in Ukraine and the Russian threat are at the heart of the discussions, another point occupies the members of the alliance, the progressive American disengagement. And the elephant in the room, it's him, Donald Trump. He regularly brandishes the threat of a withdrawal of the United States from the alliance and calls on Europeans to massively increase their military spending. And less than a week before the opening of this summit, Donald Trump deemed it ridiculous that his country should maintain its support for NATO. Simply a threat towards his NATO allies. This is not a good-mood Donald Trump that we saw during the G7, it is a very angry Trump against the NATO countries on whom he is trying to partly place the failure of the war in Iran for his population. For American public opinion. If we have not totally achieved our objectives, it is because the aliens did not come to our aid while we have always been there. This is a threatening Trump and this tweet was a warning. To fully understand the impact of an American withdrawal, we must go back to the creation of NATO. The Alliance was born in 1949 in a context of tension. 12 founding countries united to protect Europe in case of Soviet attack, establishing the foundations of a security model where the United States plays a central role in the protection of Europe. More than 75 years later, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has 20 more members. All allies contribute to NATO's various budgets according to each country's gross national income. It may seem complicated, said like that, but what must be understood is that Donald Trump's United States does not pay more than Germany, for example. France and the United Kingdom pay almost as much. In 2026, France is the 4th contributor with 10.10% of NATO's budget behind the United States and Germany at 14.90% each and the United Kingdom with 10.32%. Is Trump right when he says that NATO could not survive, could not manage without the United States militarily speaking, NATO without the Americans would become an empty shell. European military power is nothing compared to nuclear power, compared to American military power. So a NATO without the United States would obviously be an easy prey for a predator like Putin. Except that for years, Donald Trump has been alerting NATO. 2 months later, the US Secretary of Defense Pet announced this. Today, there are approximately 80,000 American soldiers deployed in several European countries, ground, air, naval forces, as well as logistics, and command centers essential to NATO operations. Among them, three have been transferred to the Europeans. Concretely, what does this progressive withdrawal of the United States from NATO mean? Several things. Trump will not leave NATO, very probably. No, quite simply. uh because NATO brings in a lot of money to American industries. So the objective today for the United States will be to be less and less present within NATO, to withdraw troops indeed from certain countries, undoubtedly to finance certain allied countries less than before and and most importantly to make NATO partners understand very well that it is not certain that the United States will be there to protect them in case of aggression, for example by Russia. War in Ukraine, war in Iran, Greenland. Tensions surrounding these issues have progressively isolated the United States. In any case, on the international stage, the United States, since Trump's return, is isolated as it has never been for more than a century. Following the war in Iran, it is the Gulf countries that have understood that the American giant would not always be there to protect them and that it is not a reliable ally and that they too are looking towards China. The war in Ukraine is something else entirely. Trump supports and will always support Putin, Putin's Russia, despite fine words. He will always be ready to make enormous concessions to the Kremlin. And so indeed, this war has caused a form of fracture between the European allies of NATO and their American partners. If today Washington believes that Europe is much better armed and richer to ensure its own defense, the Russian threat continues to worry. Russia in its intentions beyond its declaration to make France its main adversary, in fact this threat, it is still present. Afterwards, does that mean that the French should be scared? I don't think so. It's not something that is useful. On the other hand, I think there is a real necessity for a realization. And the good side of the threat from the United States and Donald Trump is that Europeans are realizing that they must defend themselves by themselves. The bad side of it and what is happening is that this defense by Europeans will involve the purchase of American military equipment. Well, that has already started since 2022, but especially now through the production of American equipment in Europe. Your autonomy, not only will you not build it in the coming years, but you even risk deconstructing it, that is to say, in reality, being even more dependent on the United States. This is all to the benefit of Donald Trump, that is to say, less American military capacity deployed in Europe and more dependence of Europeans on the United States and their armaments. The real question is the speed at which Europeans will be able to develop the necessary capabilities to defend themselves against Russia. Now, Russia is not in an extraordinary position today either. There are debates about the reality of the Russian threat but more about the capacity of the Russians to truly constitute a threat today. Yes.